Methodologies for calibration and predictive analysis of a watershed model

The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.

Drying kinetics of jatropha seeds

Given the necessity of developing jatropha cultivation equipment, this work adjusted different mathematical models to experimental data obtained from the drying of jatropha seeds submitted to different drying conditions and selected the best model to describe the drying process. The experiment was carried out at the Federal Institute of Goiás - Rio Verde Campus. Seeds with initial moisture content of approximately 0.50 (kg water/kg dry matter) were dried in a forced air-ventilated oven, at temperatures of 45, 60, 75, 90 and 105°C to moisture content of 0.10 ± 0.005 (kg water/kg dry matter). The experimental data were adjusted to 11 mathematical models to represent the drying process of agricultural products. The models were compared using the coefficient of determination, chi-square test, relative mean error, estimated mean error and residual distribution. It was found that the increase in the air temperature caused a reduction in the drying time of seeds. The models Midilli and Two Terms were suitable to represent the drying process of Jatropha seeds and between them the use of the Midili model is recommended due to its greater simplicity.

Extraction of volatile oil from aromatic plants with supercritical carbon dioxide: experiments and modeling

An overview of the studies carried out in our laboratories on supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) of volatile oils from seven aromatic plants: pennyroyal (Mentha pulegium L.), fennel seeds (Foeniculum vulgare Mill.), coriander (Coriandrum sativum L.), savory (Satureja fruticosa Beguinot), winter savory (Satureja montana L.), cotton lavender (Santolina chamaecyparisus) and thyme (Thymus vulgaris), is presented. A flow apparatus with a 1 L extractor and two 0.27 L separators was built to perform studies at temperatures ranging from 298 to 353 K and pressures up to 30.0 MPa. The best compromise between yield and composition compared with hydrodistillation (HD) was achieved selecting the optimum experimental conditions of extraction and fractionation. The major differences between HD and SFE oils is the presence of a small percentage of cuticular waxes and the relative amount of thymoquinone, an oxygenated monoterpene with important biological properties, which is present in the oils from thyme and winter savory. On the other hand, the modeling of our data on supercritical extraction of volatile oil from pennyroyal is discussed using Sovova's models. These models have been applied successfully to the other volatile oil extractions. Furthermore, other experimental studies involving supercritical CO2 carried out in our laboratories are also mentioned.

A Multidimensional scaling perspective of Rostow's forecasts with the Track-record (1960s-2011) of "pioneers" and "latecomers"

Proceedings of the 12th Conference on Dynamical Systems -Theory and Applications

Hydrologic modeling and uncertainty analysis of an ungauged watershed using mapwindow-swat

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Valuation of marine and coastal ecosystems: The role of ecological-economic modeling

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Valorization of pumpkin residue by supercritical extraction of added-value compounds

Dissertação para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica

The role of arl13b in cilia length regulation and in zebrafish development

RESUMO: Arl13b é uma importante proteína ciliar, presente em cílios primários e cílios móveis. Ratinhos mutantes para Arl13b têm comprimento dos cílios reduzido e defeitos nos B-túbulos dos cílios. Como consequência destes fenótipos, deficiências na Arl13b originam, em modelos animais, várias doenças congénitas, incluindo problemas no estabelecimento do eixo esquerda-direita, malformações cerebrais e deformações corporais. Nos seres humanos, deficiências na Arl13b levam a uma doença crónica congénita chamada Síndrome de Joubert. Por outro lado, a sobreexpressão de Arl13b origina cílios mais longos, no entanto existe uma ausência da caracterização dos fenótipos celulares e durante o desenvolvimento embrionário. Neste trabalho, quisemos explorar o efeito da sobre-expressão de Arl13b em embriões de peixezebra. Descobrimos que, ao nível ciliar, a sobre-expressão de Arl13b nas células aumenta o comprimento ciliar em cílios primários e móveis, no entanto, a esses cílios falta adequada acetilação da alfa-tubulina no citoesqueleto feito por microtúbulos. Os nossos resultados mostraram que esse efeito é específico de Arl13b sobre-expressão e quando se manipularam as enzimas responsáveis pela acetilação (Mec17) e pela de-acetilação (HDAC6) encontrámos uma sinergia potencial com ambas. Testámos ainda, que o aumento no comprimento ciliar não estava causalmente relacionado com a falta de acetilação, ou seja, os cílios com menos acetilação não eram necessariamente os mais longos. Também mostrámos que a sobre-expressão de Arl13b é capaz de restaurar o comprimento dos cílios em mutantes com cílios curtos e como isso pode ser explorado para um futuro potencial papel terapêutico para Arl13b. Em seguida, foi avaliado o impacto do aumento da quantidade de Arl13b no desenvolvimento embrionário do peixe-zebra. Observou-se que a sobre-expressão de Arl13b apresentava fenótipos muito fracos, quando comparados com a perda de função dos mutantes de Arl13b. Focados no inesperado fenótipo leve no estabelecimento do eixo esquerda-direita abordámos a questão através do estabelecimento de uma colaboração com matemáticos, descobrimos que os cílios mais longos que potencialmente têm a capacidade de movimentar mais fluido são atenuados por amplitudes de batimento menores, e, como resultado, estes longos cílios não prejudicam o movimento do fluido e consequentemente não afetam o estabelecimento dos padrões de esquerda-direita. Sugerimos assim que a Arl13b é um regulador chave, do comprimento ciliar. Descobrimos uma nova interação com as enzimas de acetilação/de-acetilação e levantamos novas hipóteses quanto aos mecanismos moleculares da função da Arl13b. Propomos um novo modelo para o mecanismo molecular da Arl13b na regulação do comprimento dos cílios onde podemos integrar os nossos resultados com os relatados na literatura. Este trabalho adiciona mais conhecimento para o mecanismo de ação da Arl13b e, portanto, fornece uma importante contribuição para o campo da investigação em cílios.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ABSTRACT: Arl13b is an important ciliary protein, present in primary and motile cilia. arl13b-/- mouse mutants have reduced cilia length and cilia B-tubule defects. As a consequence of these phenotypes, Arl13b loss of function animal models suffer from several congenital disorders including left-right problems, brain malformations and body deformations. In humans Arl13b depletion leads to a congenital chronic disease called Joubert Syndrome. On the other hand, overexpressing Arl13b leads to longer cilia but the characterization of the cellular and developmental phenotypes was missing. In this work we explore the effect of Arl13b overexpression in zebrafish embryos. We found that, at the ciliary level, Arl13b overexpression from 1 cell stage produces longer primary and motile cilia, but these cilia lack proper alpha tubulin acetylation of their microtubule cytoskeleton. Our results showed that this effect is specific from Arl13b overexpression and when we manipulated the enzymes responsible for acetylation, Mec17, and de-acetylation, HDAC6, we found a potential synergy of both mec17 knockdown and HDAC6 activity with Arl13b overexpression. We tested that the ciliary increase in length was not causally related to the lack of acetylation, meaning the more de-acetylated cilia were not necessarily the longer ones. We also showed that Arl13b overexpression is able to restore cilia length in short cilia mutants and how that may be explored to a potential future therapeutic role for Arl13b. Next, we evaluated the impact of increasing the amount of Arl13b in zebrafish embryonic development. We observed that Arl13b overexpression presented very mild phenotypes when compared to the loss of function mutants. We focused on the unexpected left-right mild phenotype and by establishing a mathematical modeling collaboration, we found out that the longer cilia generated force was attenuated by smaller beating amplitudes, and as a result, these long cilia were not impairing the cilia generated flow and the establishment of left-right patterning. We suggest that Arl13b is one key cilia length regulator. We disclosed a novel interaction with the acetylation / de-acetylation enzymes and raised new hypothesis as to the mechanisms of Arl13b function. We propose a new model for the Arl13b molecular mechanism of cilia length regulation where we integrate our findings with those reported in the literature. This work adds more knowledge to the Arl13b mechanism of action and therefore provides an important contribution to the cilia research field.

Parameter identification of the fermentative production of fructo-oligosaccharides by Aureobasidium pullulans

In this study, a mathematical model for the production of Fructo-oligosaccharides (FOS) by Aureobasidium pullulans is developed. This model contains a relatively large set of unknown parameters, and the identification problem is analyzed using simulation data, as well as experimental data. Batch experiments were not sufficiently informative to uniquely estimate all the unknown parameters, thus, additional experiments have to be achieved in fed-batch mode to supplement the missing information. © 2015 IEEE.

A Model of Video Traffic Transmission in IP Networks

Telecommunications and network technology is now the driving force that ensures continued progress of world civilization. Design of new and expansion of existing network infrastructures requires improving the quality of service(QoS). Modeling probabilistic and time characteristics of telecommunication systems is an integral part of modern algorithms of administration of quality of service. At present, for the assessment of quality parameters except simulation models analytical models in the form of systems and queuing networks are widely used. Because of the limited mathematical tools of models of these classes the corresponding parameter estimation of parameters of quality of service are inadequate by definition. Especially concerning the models of telecommunication systems with packet transmission of multimedia real-time traffic.

Sex difference and the role of leptin in the association between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and adiposity in two different populations.

Elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) concentration is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease but this association seems to be largely mediated via conventional cardiovascular risk factors. In particular, the association between hs-CRP and obesity has been extensively demonstrated and correlations are stronger in women than men. We used fractional polynomials-a method that allows flexible modeling of non linear relations-to investigate the dose/response mathematical relationship between hs-CRP and several indicators of adiposity in Caucasians (Switzerland) and Africans (Seychelles) surveyed in two population-based studies. This relationship was non-linear exhibiting a steeper slope for low levels of hs-CRP and a higher level in women. The observed sex difference in the relationship between hs-CRP and adiposity almost disappeared upon adjustment for leptin, suggesting that these sex differences might be partially mediated, by leptin. All these relationship were similar in Caucasians and Africans. This is the first report on a non-linear relation, stratified by gender, between hs-CRP and adiposity.

Quantitative genetic modeling and inference in the presence of nonignorable missing data.

Natural selection is typically exerted at some specific life stages. If natural selection takes place before a trait can be measured, using conventional models can cause wrong inference about population parameters. When the missing data process relates to the trait of interest, a valid inference requires explicit modeling of the missing process. We propose a joint modeling approach, a shared parameter model, to account for nonrandom missing data. It consists of an animal model for the phenotypic data and a logistic model for the missing process, linked by the additive genetic effects. A Bayesian approach is taken and inference is made using integrated nested Laplace approximations. From a simulation study we find that wrongly assuming that missing data are missing at random can result in severely biased estimates of additive genetic variance. Using real data from a wild population of Swiss barn owls Tyto alba, our model indicates that the missing individuals would display large black spots; and we conclude that genes affecting this trait are already under selection before it is expressed. Our model is a tool to correctly estimate the magnitude of both natural selection and additive genetic variance.

24 Hours in the Life of HIV-1 in a T Cell Line.

HIV-1 infects CD4+ T cells and completes its replication cycle in approximately 24 hours. We employed repeated measurements in a standardized cell system and rigorous mathematical modeling to characterize the emergence of the viral replication intermediates and their impact on the cellular transcriptional response with high temporal resolution. We observed 7,991 (73%) of the 10,958 expressed genes to be modulated in concordance with key steps of viral replication. Fifty-two percent of the overall variability in the host transcriptome was explained by linear regression on the viral life cycle. This profound perturbation of cellular physiology was investigated in the light of several regulatory mechanisms, including transcription factors, miRNAs, host-pathogen interaction, and proviral integration. Key features were validated in primary CD4+ T cells, and with viral constructs using alternative entry strategies. We propose a model of early massive cellular shutdown and progressive upregulation of the cellular machinery to complete the viral life cycle.

Homology modeling and metabolism prediction of human carboxylesterase-2 using docking analyses by GriDock: a parallelized tool based on AutoDock 4.0.

Metabolic problems lead to numerous failures during clinical trials, and much effort is now devoted to developing in silico models predicting metabolic stability and metabolites. Such models are well known for cytochromes P450 and some transferases, whereas less has been done to predict the activity of human hydrolases. The present study was undertaken to develop a computational approach able to predict the hydrolysis of novel esters by human carboxylesterase hCES2. The study involved first a homology modeling of the hCES2 protein based on the model of hCES1 since the two proteins share a high degree of homology (congruent with 73%). A set of 40 known substrates of hCES2 was taken from the literature; the ligands were docked in both their neutral and ionized forms using GriDock, a parallel tool based on the AutoDock4.0 engine which can perform efficient and easy virtual screening analyses of large molecular databases exploiting multi-core architectures. Useful statistical models (e.g., r (2) = 0.91 for substrates in their unprotonated state) were calculated by correlating experimental pK(m) values with distance between the carbon atom of the substrate's ester group and the hydroxy function of Ser228. Additional parameters in the equations accounted for hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions between substrates and contributing residues. The negatively charged residues in the hCES2 cavity explained the preference of the enzyme for neutral substrates and, more generally, suggested that ligands which interact too strongly by ionic bonds (e.g., ACE inhibitors) cannot be good CES2 substrates because they are trapped in the cavity in unproductive modes and behave as inhibitors. The effects of protonation on substrate recognition and the contrasting behavior of substrates and products were finally investigated by MD simulations of some CES2 complexes.

In vivo enzymatic activity of acetylCoA synthetase in skeletal muscle revealed by 13C turnover from hyperpolarized [1-13C]acetate to [1-13C]acetylcarnitine

BACKGROUND: Acetate metabolism in skeletal muscle is regulated by acetylCoA synthetase (ACS). The main function of ACS is to provide cells with acetylCoA, a key molecule for numerous metabolic pathways including fatty acid and cholesterol synthesis and the Krebs cycle. METHODS: Hyperpolarized [1-(13)C]acetate prepared via dissolution dynamic nuclear polarization was injected intravenously at different concentrations into rats. The (13)C magnetic resonance signals of [1-(13)C]acetate and [1-(13)C]acetylcarnitine were recorded in vivo for 1min. The kinetic rate constants related to the transformation of acetate into acetylcarnitine were deduced from the 3s time resolution measurements using two approaches, either mathematical modeling or relative metabolite ratios. RESULTS: Although separated by two biochemical transformations, a kinetic analysis of the (13)C label flow from [1-(13)C]acetate to [1-(13)C]acetylcarnitine led to a unique determination of the activity of ACS. The in vivo Michaelis constants for ACS were KM=0.35±0.13mM and Vmax=0.199±0.031μmol/g/min. CONCLUSIONS: The conversion rates from hyperpolarized acetate into acetylcarnitine were quantified in vivo and, although separated by two enzymatic reactions, these rates uniquely defined the activity of ACS. The conversion rates associated with ACS were obtained using two analytical approaches, both methods yielding similar results. GENERAL SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates the feasibility of directly measuring ACS activity in vivo and, since the activity of ACS can be affected by various pathological states such as cancer or diabetes, the proposed method could be used to non-invasively probe metabolic signatures of ACS in diseased tissue.