On classical and other methods of discriminant analysis and estimation of log-odds

For two multinormal populations with equal covariance matrices the likelihood ratio discriminant function, an alternative allocation rule to the sample linear discriminant function when n1 ≠ n2 ,is studied analytically. With the assumption of a known covariance matrix its distribution is derived and the expectation of its actual and apparent error rates evaluated and compared with those of the sample linear discriminant function. This comparison indicates that the likelihood ratio allocation rule is robust to unequal sample sizes. The quadratic discriminant function is studied, its distribution reviewed and evaluation of its probabilities of misclassification discussed. For known covariance matrices the distribution of the sample quadratic discriminant function is derived. When the known covariance matrices are proportional exact expressions for the expectation of its actual and apparent error rates are obtained and evaluated. The effectiveness of the sample linear discriminant function for this case is also considered. Estimation of true log-odds for two multinormal populations with equal or unequal covariance matrices is studied. The estimative, Bayesian predictive and a kernel method are compared by evaluating their biases and mean square errors. Some algebraic expressions for these quantities are derived. With equal covariance matrices the predictive method is preferable. Where it derives this superiority is investigated by considering its performance for various levels of fixed true log-odds. It is also shown that the predictive method is sensitive to n1 ≠ n2. For unequal but proportional covariance matrices the unbiased estimative method is preferred. Product Normal kernel density estimates are used to give a kernel estimator of true log-odds. The effect of correlation in the variables with product kernels is considered. With equal covariance matrices the kernel and parametric estimators are compared by simulation. For moderately correlated variables and large dimension sizes the product kernel method is a good estimator of true log-odds.

Electromagnetic tracking and steering for catheter navigation

This thesis explores the use of electromagnetics for both steering and tracking of medical instruments in minimally invasive surgeries. The end application is virtual navigation of the lung for biopsy of early stage cancer nodules. Navigation to the peripheral regions of the lung is difficult due to physical dimensions of the bronchi and current methods have low successes rates for accurate diagnosis. Firstly, the potential use of DC magnetic fields for the actuation of catheter devices with permanently magnetised distal attachments is investigated. Catheter models formed from various materials and magnetic tip formations are used to examine the usefulness of relatively low power and compact electromagnets. The force and torque that can be exerted on a small permanent magnet is shown to be extremely limited. Hence, after this initial investigation we turn our attention to electromagnetic tracking, in the development of a novel, low-cost implementation of a GPS-like system for navigating within a patient. A planar magnetic transmitter, formed on a printed circuit board for a low-profile and low cost manufacture, is used to generate a low frequency magnetic field distribution which is detected by a small induction coil sensor. The field transmitter is controlled by a novel closed-loop system that ensures a highly stable magnetic field with reduced interference from one transmitter coil to another. Efficient demodulation schemes are presented which utilise synchronous detection of each magnetic field component experienced by the sensor. The overall tracking accuracy of the system is shown to be less than 2 mm with an orientation error less than 1°. A novel demodulation implementation using a unique undersampling approach allows the use of reduced sample rates to sample the signals of interest without loss of tracking accuracy. This is advantageous for embedded microcontroller implementations of EM tracking systems. The EM tracking system is demonstrated in the pre-clinical environment of a breathing lung phantom. The airways of the phantom are successfully navigated using the system in combination with a 3D computer model rendered from CT data. Registration is achieved using both a landmark rigid registration method and a hybrid fiducial-free approach. The design of a planar magnetic shield structure for blocking the effects of metallic distortion from below the transmitter is presented which successfully blocks the impact of large ferromagnetic objects such as operating tables. A variety of shielding material are analysed with MuMetal and ferrite both providing excellent shieling performance and an increased signal to noise ratio. Finally, the effect of conductive materials and human tissue on magnetic field measurements is presented. Error due to induced eddy currents and capacitive coupling is shown to severely affect EM tracking accuracy at higher frequencies.

Optimal assessment of the ability of children with recurrent respiratory tract infections to produce anti-polysaccharide antibodies.

Specific anti-polysaccharide antibody deficiency (SPAD) is an immune disorder. Diagnostic criteria have not yet been defined clearly. One hundred and seventy-six children evaluated for recurrent respiratory tract infections were analysed retrospectively. For each subject, specific anti-pneumococcal antibodies had been measured with two enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs), one overall assay (OA) using the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (23-PPSV) as detecting antigen and the other purified pneumococcal polysaccharide serotypes (serotype-specific assay, SSA) (serotypes 14, 19F and 23F). Antibody levels were measured before (n = 176) and after (n = 93) immunization with the 23-PPSV. Before immunization, low titres were found for 138 of 176 patients (78%) with OA, compared to 20 of 176 patients (11%) with the SSA. We found a significant correlation between OA and SSA results. After immunization, 88% (71 of 81) of the patients considered as responders in the OA test were also responders in the SSA; 93% (71 of 76) of the patients classified as responders according to the SSA were also responders in the OA. SPAD was diagnosed in 8% (seven of 93) of patients on the basis of the absence of response in both tests. Thus, we propose to use OA as a screening test for SPAD before 23-PPSV immunization. After immunization, SSA should be used only in case of a low response in OA. Only the absence of or a very low antibody response detected by both tests should be used as a diagnostic criterion for SPAD.

THE EFFECT OF A PROGRAM OF PORTABLE ELECTRONIC PIANO KEYBOARD EXPERIENCE ON THE ACQUISITION OF SIGHT-SINGING SKILL IN THE NOVICE HIGH SCHOOL CHORUS

The problem was to determine whether a method of aural and visual vocal training that included a program of portable electronic piano keyboard experience would be more effective in teaching sight-singing skills to novice high school chorus students than a method that included only aural and visual vocal training. A sub-problem was to determine whether novice chorus students enjoyed playing electronic keyboards in chorus as a reinforcement experience in sight-singing training. Students were randomly assigned to two treatment groups, tested with the Musical Aptitude Profile, Tonal Imagery, part A, and then trained separately. The experimental group sang repetitions of melodic patterns and utilized techniques associated with the Kodály Method while simultaneously playing keyboard. The comparison group received a similar treatment without using keyboards. The students were pre- and post-tested in sight-singing using the Vocal Sight-Reading Inventory. Results of the Analysis of Covariance using MAP scores as the covariate revealed no significant difference (p<.05) between post-test scores of the two groups. Improvement was noted in 96% of students from pre-test to post-test regardless of grouping. The repeated measures ANOVA revealed a significant relationship (p<.006) between aptitude group and post-test score. High aptitude students in both groups were found to benefit more from the training than low aptitude students. High aptitude keyboard group students achieved an average gain score that was 8.67 points higher than the comparison group. Of the total experimental group, 92% enjoyed playing keyboards in chorus. It is recommended that future research be undertaken to study the use of keyboards with advanced high school choruses and with uncertain singers in the high school chorus. Research is also needed to develop graded, valid, and reliable sight-singing tests for use in high school chorus. Techniques of the Kodály Method should be further investigated for use in high school sight-singing training.

Compressive holography of diffuse objects.

We propose an estimation-theoretic approach to the inference of an incoherent 3D scattering density from 2D scattered speckle field measurements. The object density is derived from the covariance of the speckle field. The inference is performed by a constrained optimization technique inspired by compressive sensing theory. Experimental results demonstrate and verify the performance of our estimates.

Decoding an olfactory mechanism of kin recognition and inbreeding avoidance in a primate.

BACKGROUND: Like other vertebrates, primates recognize their relatives, primarily to minimize inbreeding, but also to facilitate nepotism. Although associative, social learning is typically credited for discrimination of familiar kin, discrimination of unfamiliar kin remains unexplained. As sex-biased dispersal in long-lived species cannot consistently prevent encounters between unfamiliar kin, inbreeding remains a threat and mechanisms to avoid it beg explanation. Using a molecular approach that combined analyses of biochemical and microsatellite markers in 17 female and 19 male ring-tailed lemurs (Lemur catta), we describe odor-gene covariance to establish the feasibility of olfactory-mediated kin recognition. RESULTS: Despite derivation from different genital glands, labial and scrotal secretions shared about 170 of their respective 338 and 203 semiochemicals. In addition, these semiochemicals encoded information about genetic relatedness within and between the sexes. Although the sexes showed opposite seasonal patterns in signal complexity, the odor profiles of related individuals (whether same-sex or mixed-sex dyads) converged most strongly in the competitive breeding season. Thus, a strong, mutual olfactory signal of genetic relatedness appeared specifically when such information would be crucial for preventing inbreeding. That weaker signals of genetic relatedness might exist year round could provide a mechanism to explain nepotism between unfamiliar kin. CONCLUSION: We suggest that signal convergence between the sexes may reflect strong selective pressures on kin recognition, whereas signal convergence within the sexes may arise as its by-product or function independently to prevent competition between unfamiliar relatives. The link between an individual's genome and its olfactory signals could be mediated by biosynthetic pathways producing polymorphic semiochemicals or by carrier proteins modifying the individual bouquet of olfactory cues. In conclusion, we unveil a possible olfactory mechanism of kin recognition that has specific relevance to understanding inbreeding avoidance and nepotistic behavior observed in free-ranging primates, and broader relevance to understanding the mechanisms of vertebrate olfactory communication.

Sexual selection and canine dimorphism in New World monkeys.

Social and ecological factors are important in shaping sexual dimorphism in Anthropoidea, but there is also a tendency for body-size dimorphism and canine dimorphism to increase with increased body size (Rensch's rule) (Rensch: Evolution Above the Species Level. London: Methuen, 1959.) Most ecologist interpret Rensch's rule to be a consequence of social and ecological selective factors that covary with body size, but recent claims have been advanced that dimorphism is principally a consequence of selection for increased body size alone. Here we assess the effects of body size, body-size dimorphism, and social structure on canine dimorphism among platyrrhine monkeys. Platyrrhine species examined are classified into four behavioral groups reflecting the intensity of intermale competition for access to females or to limiting resources. As canine dimorphism increases, so does the level of intermale competition. Those species with monogamous and polyandrous social structures have the lowest canine dimorphism, while those with dominance rank hierarchies of males have the most canine dimorphism. Species with fission-fusion social structures and transitory intermale breeding-season competition fall between these extremes. Among platyrrhines there is a significant positive correlation between body size and canine dimorphism However, within levels of competition, no significant correlation was found between the two. Also, with increased body size, body-size dimorphism tends to increase, and this correlation holds in some cases within competition levels. In an analysis of covariance, once the level of intermale competition is controlled for, neither molar size nor molar-size dimorphism accounts for a significant part of the variance in canine dimorphism. A similar analysis using body weight as a measure of size and dimorphism yields a less clear-cut picture: body weight contributes significantly to the model when the effects of the other factors are controlled. Finally, in a model using head and body length as a measure of size and dimorphism, all factors and the interactions between them are significant. We conclude that intermale competition among platyrrhine species is the most important factor explaining variations in canine dimorphism. The significant effects of size and size dimorphism in some models may be evidence that natural (as opposed to sexual) selection also plays a role in the evolution of increased canine dimorphism.

A theory of hypoellipticity and unique ergodicity for semilinear stochastic PDEs

We present a theory of hypoellipticity and unique ergodicity for semilinear parabolic stochastic PDEs with "polynomial" nonlinearities and additive noise, considered as abstract evolution equations in some Hilbert space. It is shown that if Hörmander's bracket condition holds at every point of this Hilbert space, then a lower bound on the Malliavin covariance operatorμt can be obtained. Informally, this bound can be read as "Fix any finite-dimensional projection on a subspace of sufficiently regular functions. Then the eigenfunctions of μt with small eigenvalues have only a very small component in the image of Π." We also show how to use a priori bounds on the solutions to the equation to obtain good control on the dependency of the bounds on the Malliavin matrix on the initial condition. These bounds are sufficient in many cases to obtain the asymptotic strong Feller property introduced in [HM06]. One of the main novel technical tools is an almost sure bound from below on the size of "Wiener polynomials," where the coefficients are possibly non-adapted stochastic processes satisfying a Lips chitz condition. By exploiting the polynomial structure of the equations, this result can be used to replace Norris' lemma, which is unavailable in the present context. We conclude by showing that the two-dimensional stochastic Navier-Stokes equations and a large class of reaction-diffusion equations fit the framework of our theory.

Science objectives and performances of NOMAD, a spectrometer suite for the ExoMars TGO mission

The NOMAD spectrometer suite on the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter will map the composition and distribution of Mars atmospheric trace species in unprecedented detail, fulfilling many of the scientific objectives of the joint ESA-Roscosmos ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter mission. The instrument is a combination of three channels, covering a spectral range from the UV to the IR, and can perform solar occultation, nadir and limb observations. In this paper, we present the science objectives of the instrument and how these objectives have influenced the design of the channels. We also discuss the expected performance of the instrument in terms of coverage and detection sensitivity.

Hacia una investigación agropecuaria eficiente : análisis de covariancia en el diseño en parcelas divididas

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The numerical simulation of enclosure fires using a Cfd fire field model coupled with a pyrolysis based solid fuel combustion submodel—a first approximation

In this paper, we present some early work concerned with the development of a simple solid fuel combustion model incorporated within a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) framework. The model is intended for use in engineering applications of fire field modeling and represents an extension of this technique to situations involving the combustion of solid cellulosic fuels. A simple solid fuel combustion model consisting of a thermal pyrolysis model, a six flux radiation model and an eddy-dissipation model for gaseous combustion have been developed and implemented within the CFD code CFDS-FLOW3D. The model is briefly described and demonstrated through two applications involving fire spread in a compartment with a plywood lined ceiling. The two scenarios considered involve a fire in an open and closed compartment. The model is shown to be able to qualitatively predict behaviors similar to "flashover"—in the case of the open room—and "backdraft"— in the case of the initially closed room.

The numerical simulation of noncharring thermal degradation and its application to the prediction of compartment fire development

In this paper we present some work concerned with the development and testing of a simple solid fuel combustion model incorporated within a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) framework. The model is intended for use in engineering applications of fire field modeling and represents an extension of this technique to situations involving the combustion of solid fuels. The CFD model is coupled with a simple thermal pyrolysis model for combustible solid noncharring fuels, a six-flux radiation model and an eddy-dissipation model for gaseous combustion. The model is then used to simulate a series of small-scale room fire experiments in which the target solid fuel is polymethylmethacrylate. The numerical predictions produced by this coupled model are found to be in very good agreement with experimental data. Furthermore, numerical predictions of the relationship between the air entrained into the fire compartment and the ventilation factor produce a characteristic linear correlation with constant of proportionality 0.38 kg/sm5/12. The simulation results also suggest that the model is capable of predicting the onset of "flashover" type behavior within the fire compartment.

Predicting toxic gas concentrations resulting from enclosure fires using local equivalence ratio concept linked to fire field models

A practical CFD method is presented in this study to predict the generation of toxic gases in enclosure fires. The model makes use of local combustion conditions to determine the yield of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, hydrocarbon, soot and oxygen. The local conditions used in the determination of these species are the local equivalence ratio (LER) and the local temperature. The heat released from combustion is calculated using the volumetric heat source model or the eddy dissipation model (EDM). The model is then used to simulate a range of reduced-scale and full-scale fire experiments. The model predictions for most of the predicted species are then shown to be in good agreement with the test results

Predicting toxic species concentrations in a full-scale vitiated fire

A toxicity model on dividing the computational domain into two parts, a control region (CR) and a transport region (TR), for species calculation was recently developed. The model can be incorporated with either the heat source approach or the eddy dissipation model (EDM). The work described in this paper is a further application of the toxicity model with modifications of the EDM for vitiated fires. In the modified EDM, chemical reaction only occurs within the CR. This is consistent with the approach used in the species concentration calculations within the toxicity model in which yields of combustion products only change within the CR. A vitiated large room-corridor fire, in which the carbon monoxide (CM) concentrations are very high and the temperatures are relatively low at locations distant from the original fire source, is simulated using the modified EDM coupled with the toxicity model. Compared with the EDM, the modified EDM provide significant improvements in the predictions of temperatures at remote locations. Predictions of species concentrations at various locations follow the measured trends. Good agreements between the measured and predicted species concentrations are obtained at the vitiated fire stage.

Can the subtropical North Atlantic permanent thermocline be observed from space?

The analysis of remotely sensed altimeter data and in situ measurements shows that ERS 2 radar can monitor the ocean permanent thermocline from space. The remotely sensed sea level anomaly data account for similar to 2/3 of the temperature variance or vertical displacement of isotherms at a depth of similar to 550 m in the Subtropical North Atlantic Ocean near 32.5 degree N. This depth corresponds closely to the region of maximum temperature gradient in the permanent thermocline where near semi-annual internal vertical displacements reach 200 to 300 m. The gradient of the altimeter sea level anomaly data correlates well with measured ocean currents to a depth of 750 m. It is shown that observations from space can account for similar to 3/4 of the variance of ocean currents measured in situ in the permanent thermocline over a 2-y period. The magnification of the permanent thermocline displacement with respect to the displacement of the sea surface was determined as - x650 and gives a measure of the ratio of barotropic to baroclinic decay scale of geostrophic current with depth. The overall results are used to interpret an eight year altimeter data tie series in the Subtropical North Atlantic at 32.5 degree N which shows a dominant wave or eddy period near 200 days, rather than semi-annual and increases in energy propagating westward in 1995 (west of 25 degree W). The effects of rapid North Atlantic Oscillation climate change on ocean circulation are discussed. The altimeter data for the Atlantic were Fourier analysed. It is shown how the annual and semi-annual components relate to the seasonal maximum cholorophyll-a SeaWiFS signal in tropical and equatorial regions due to the lifting of the thermocline caused by seasonally varying ocean currents forced by wind stress.