Sharing of clinical data in a maternity setting: How do paper hand-held records and electronic health records compare for completeness?

Background Historically, the paper hand-held record (PHR) has been used for sharing information between hospital clinicians, general practitioners and pregnant women in a maternity shared-care environment. Recently in alignment with a National e-health agenda, an electronic health record (EHR) was introduced at an Australian tertiary maternity service to replace the PHR for collection and transfer of data. The aim of this study was to examine and compare the completeness of clinical data collected in a PHR and an EHR. Methods We undertook a comparative cohort design study to determine differences in completeness between data collected from maternity records in two phases. Phase 1 data were collected from the PHR and Phase 2 data from the EHR. Records were compared for completeness of best practice variables collected The primary outcome was the presence of best practice variables and the secondary outcomes were the differences in individual variables between the records. Results Ninety-four percent of paper medical charts were available in Phase 1 and 100% of records from an obstetric database in Phase 2. No PHR or EHR had a complete dataset of best practice variables. The variables with significant improvement in completeness of data documented in the EHR, compared with the PHR, were urine culture, glucose tolerance test, nuchal screening, morphology scans, folic acid advice, tobacco smoking, illicit drug assessment and domestic violence assessment (p = 0.001). Additionally the documentation of immunisations (pertussis, hepatitis B, varicella, fluvax) were markedly improved in the EHR (p = 0.001). The variables of blood pressure, proteinuria, blood group, antibody, rubella and syphilis status, showed no significant differences in completeness of recording. Conclusion This is the first paper to report on the comparison of clinical data collected on a PHR and EHR in a maternity shared-care setting. The use of an EHR demonstrated significant improvements to the collection of best practice variables. Additionally, the data in an EHR were more available to relevant clinical staff with the appropriate log-in and more easily retrieved than from the PHR. This study contributes to an under-researched area of determining data quality collected in patient records.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Fatal consequences: An analysis of the failed employee voice system at the Bundaberg Hospital

In this paper we discuss the failure of the employee voice system at the Bundaberg Base Hospital (BBH) in Australia. Surgeon Jayant Patel was arrested over the deaths of patients on whom he operated when he was the director of surgery at the hospital. Our interest is in the reasons the established employee voice mechanisms failed when employees attempted to bring serious issues to the attention of managers. Our data is based on an analysis of the sworn testimonies of participants who participated in two inquiries concerning these events. An analysis of the events with a particular focus on the failings of the voice system is presented. We ask the following: how and why did the voice systems in the case of the BBH fail?

Paper and electronic antenatal records: What do women and health care providers tell us about their use?

The antenatal paper hand-held record (PHR) has been used extensively in general practice (GP) shared-care management of pregnant women, but recently the antenatal electronic health record (EHR) was introduced. This study aimed to examine the experiences of women and health care providers who use the PHR and the EHR, and find out the relative role of these records in the integration of care. Purposive homogenous samples of women and health care providers were interviewed as users of the PHR in phase 1 and the EHR in phase 2 of the study. Qualitative data were collected via interview with women and GPs and focus groups held with hospital health care providers. Interviews were coded manually and analysed using qualitative content analysis. Fifteen women participated in phase 1 and 12 in phase 2. Seventeen GPs participated in phase 1 and 15 in phase 2. Five focus groups with hospital health care providers were conducted in each phase. Results were categorised into four themes: 1. Record purpose; 2. Perception of the record; 3. Content of the record, and; 4. Sharing information in the record. Both women and health care providers were familiar with the PHR, but identified that some information was missing or not utilised well, and reported underuse of the EHR. The study identified continued widespread use of the PHR and several issues concerning the use of the EHR. An improvement in the strategic implementation of the EHR is suggested as a mechanism to facilitate its wider adoption.

From maternity paper hand-held records to electronic health records: What do women tell us about their use?

The paper hand-held record (PHR) has been used extensively in general practice (GP) shared care management of pregnant women, and recently, the first Mater Shared Electronic Health Record (MSEHR) was introduced. The aim of this qualitative study was to examine women’s experiences using the records and the contribution of the records to integrate care. At the 36-week antenatal visit in a maternity tertiary centre clinic, women were identified as a user of either the PHR or the MSEHR and organised into Phase 1 and Phase 2 studies respectively. Fifteen women were interviewed in Phase 1 and 12 women in Phase 2. Semi-structured interviews were used for data collection, and analysed using qualitative content analysis. Four main themes were identified: (1) purpose of the record; (2) perceptions of the record; (3) content of the record, and; (4) sharing the record. Findings indicate that the PHR is a well-liked maternity tool. The findings also indicate there is under-usage of the MSEHR due to health-care providers failing to follow up and discuss the option of using the electronic health record option or if a woman has completed the log-in process. This paper adds to an already favourable body of knowledge about the use of the PHR. It is recommended that continued implementation of the MSEHR be undertaken to facilitate its use.

Morphometric analysis of the thoracic intervertebral foramen osseous anatomy in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis using low dose computerized tomography

Introduction. The dimensions of the thoracic intervertebral foramen in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) have not previously been quantified. During posterior approach scoliosis correction surgery pedicle screws may occasionally breach into the foramen. Better understanding of the dimensions of the foramen may be useful in surgical planning. This study describes a reproducible method for measurement of the thoracic foramen in AIS using computerized tomography (CT). Methods. In 23 pre-operative female patients with Lenke 1 type AIS with right side convexity major curves confined to the thoracic spine the foraminal height (FH), foraminal width (FW), pedicle to superior articular process distance (P-SAP) and cross sectional foraminal area (FA) were measured using multiplanar reconstructed CT. Measurements were made at entrance, midpoint and exit of the thoracic foramina from T1/T2 to T11/T12. Results were correlated with potential dependent variables of major curve Cobb Angle measured on X-ray and CT, Age, Weight, Lenke classification subtype, Risser Grade and number of spinal levels in the major curve. Results. The FH, FW, P-SAP and FA dimensions and ratios are all significantly larger on the convexity of the major curve and maximal at or close to the apex. Mean thoracic foraminal dimensions change in a predictable manner relative to position on the major thoracic curve. There was no significant correlation with the measured foraminal dimensions or ratios and the potential dependent variables. The average ratio of convexity to concavity dimensions at the apex foramina for entrance, midpoint and exit respectively are FH (1.50, 1.38, 1.25), FW (1.28, 1.30, 0.98), FA (2.06, 1.84, 1.32), P-SAP (1.61, 1.47, 1.30). Conclusion. Foraminal dimensions of the thoracic spine are significantly affected by AIS. Foraminal dimensions have a predictable convexity to concavity ratio relative to the proximity to the major curve apex. Surgeons should be aware of these anatomical differences during scoliosis correction surgery.

Using low dose computerized tomography to morphometrically analyse the thoracic intervertebral foramen osseous anatomy in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

INTRODUCTION The dimensions of the thoracic intervertebral foramen in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) have not previously been quantified. During posterior approach scoliosis correction surgery pedicle screws may occasionally breach into the foramen. Better understanding of the dimensions of the foramen may be useful in surgical planning. This study describes a reproducible method for measurement of the thoracic foramen in AIS using computerized tomography (CT). METHODS In 23 pre-operative female patients with Lenke 1 type AIS with right side convexity major curves confined to the thoracic spine the foraminal height (FH), foraminal width (FW), pedicle to superior articular process distance (P-SAP) and cross sectional foraminal area (FA) were measured using multiplanar reconstructed CT. Measurements were made at entrance, midpoint and exit of the thoracic foramina from T1/T2 to T11/T12. Results were correlated with potential dependent variables of major curve Cobb Angle measured on X-ray and CT, Age, Weight, Lenke classification subtype, Risser Grade and number of spinal levels in the major curve. RESULTS The FH, FW, P-SAP and FA dimensions and ratios are all significantly larger on the convexity of the major curve and maximal at or close to the apex. Mean thoracic foraminal dimensions change in a predictable manner relative to position on the major thoracic curve. There was no significant correlation with the measured foraminal dimensions or ratios and the potential dependent variables. The average ratio of convexity to concavity dimensions at the apex foramina for entrance, midpoint and exit respectively are FH (1.50, 1.38, 1.25), FW (1.28, 1.30, 0.98), FA (2.06, 1.84, 1.32), P-SAP (1.61, 1.47, 1.30). CONCLUSION Foraminal dimensions of the thoracic spine are significantly affected by AIS. Foraminal dimensions have a predictable convexity to concavity ratio relative to the proximity to the major curve apex. Surgeons should be aware of these anatomical differences during scoliosis correction surgery.

A manager-centred perspective on work-life integration

Decades of research has shown that the uptake of workplace ‘flexibility’ provisions set out in organizational/HR policies rests heavily on the support of line managers. However, the majority of scholarship addressing the intersection of managers’ roles and work-life integration has been employee-centred. That is, the literature primarily situates managers as gatekeepers to the effective implementation of work and family policies as they affect employees or workers, examining their role in, for example, approving requests to adjust or personalise employees’ work schedules; influencing whether employees are cross-trained to undertake the work of others during absences; publicising available policies; and creating norms supporting the use of formal provisions (Ryan & Ernst Kossek, 2008). Managers’ actions are primarily seen as key, contingent phenomena affecting the adoption and diffusion of work-life initiatives in an organization; consequently impacting on the work-life outcomes of subordinate employees (Bardoel, 2003; Gregory & Milner, 2012).

Infection and cellular defense dynamics in a novel 17beta-estradiol murine model of chronic human group B streptococcus genital tract colonization reveal a role for hemolysin in persistence and neutrophil accumulation

Genital tract carriage of group B streptococcus (GBS) is prevalent among adult women; however, the dynamics of chronic GBS genital tract carriage, including how GBS persists in this immunologically active host niche long term, are not well defined. To our knowledge, in this study, we report the first animal model of chronic GBS genital tract colonization using female mice synchronized into estrus by delivery of 17β-estradiol prior to intravaginal challenge with wild-type GBS 874391. Cervicovaginal swabs, which were used to measure bacterial persistence, showed that GBS colonized the vaginal mucosa of mice at high numbers (106–107 CFU/swab) for at least 90 d. Cellular and histological analyses showed that chronic GBS colonization of the murine genital tract caused significant lymphocyte and PMN cell infiltrates, which were localized to the vaginal mucosal surface. Long-term colonization was independent of regular hormone cycling. Immunological analyses of 23 soluble proteins related to chemotaxis and inflammation showed that the host response to GBS in the genital tract comprised markers of innate immune activation including cytokines such as GM-CSF and TNF-α. A nonhemolytic isogenic mutant of GBS 874391, Δcyle9, was impaired for colonization and was associated with amplified local PMN responses. Induction of DNA neutrophil extracellular traps, which was observed in GBS-infected human PMNs in vitro in a hemolysin-dependent manner, appeared to be part of this response. Overall, this study defines key infection dynamics in a novel murine model of chronic GBS genital tract colonization and establishes previously unknown cellular and soluble defense responses to GBS in the female genital tract.

Laser capture microdissection and multiplex-tandem PCR analysis of proximal tubular epithelial cell signaling in human kidney disease

Interstitial fibrosis, a histological process common to many kidney diseases, is the precursor state to end stage kidney disease, a devastating and costly outcome for the patient and the health system. Fibrosis is historically associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) but emerging evidence is now linking many forms of acute kidney disease (AKD) with the development of CKD. Indeed, we and others have observed at least some degree of fibrosis in up to 50% of clinically defined cases of AKD. Epithelial cells of the proximal tubule (PTEC) are central in the development of kidney interstitial fibrosis. We combine the novel techniques of laser capture microdissection and multiplex-tandem PCR to identify and quantitate “real time��� gene transcription profiles of purified PTEC isolated from human kidney biopsies that describe signaling pathways associated with this pathological fibrotic process. Our results: (i) confirm previous in-vitro and animal model studies; kidney injury molecule-1 is up-regulated in patients with acute tubular injury, inflammation, neutrophil infiltration and a range of chronic disease diagnoses, (ii) provide data to inform treatment; complement component 3 expression correlates with inflammation and acute tubular injury, (iii) identify potential new biomarkers; proline 4-hydroxylase transcription is down-regulated and vimentin is up-regulated across kidney diseases, (iv) describe previously unrecognized feedback mechanisms within PTEC; Smad-3 is down-regulated in many kidney diseases suggesting a possible negative feedback loop for TGF-β in the disease state, whilst tight junction protein-1 is up-regulated in many kidney diseases, suggesting feedback interactions with vimentin expression. These data demonstrate that the combined techniques of laser capture microdissection and multiplex-tandem PCR have the power to study molecular signaling within single cell populations derived from clinically sourced tissue.

Cardiometabolic effects of genetic upregulation of the interleukin 1 receptor antagonist: A Mendelian randomisation analysis

Background To investigate potential cardiovascular and other effects of long-term pharmacological interleukin 1 (IL-1) inhibition, we studied genetic variants that produce inhibition of IL-1, a master regulator of inflammation. Methods We created a genetic score combining the effects of alleles of two common variants (rs6743376 and rs1542176) that are located upstream of IL1RN, the gene encoding the IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra; an endogenous inhibitor of both IL-1α and IL-1β); both alleles increase soluble IL-1Ra protein concentration. We compared effects on inflammation biomarkers of this genetic score with those of anakinra, the recombinant form of IL-1Ra, which has previously been studied in randomised trials of rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory disorders. In primary analyses, we investigated the score in relation to rheumatoid arthritis and four cardiometabolic diseases (type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, and abdominal aortic aneurysm; 453 411 total participants). In exploratory analyses, we studied the relation of the score to many disease traits and to 24 other disorders of proposed relevance to IL-1 signalling (746 171 total participants). Findings For each IL1RN minor allele inherited, serum concentrations of IL-1Ra increased by 0·22 SD (95% CI 0·18–0·25; 12·5%; p=9·3 × 10−33), concentrations of interleukin 6 decreased by 0·02 SD (−0·04 to −0·01; −1·7%; p=3·5 × 10−3), and concentrations of C-reactive protein decreased by 0·03 SD (−0·04 to −0·02; −3·4%; p=7·7 × 10−14). We noted the effects of the genetic score on these inflammation biomarkers to be directionally concordant with those of anakinra. The allele count of the genetic score had roughly log-linear, dose-dependent associations with both IL-1Ra concentration and risk of coronary heart disease. For people who carried four IL-1Ra-raising alleles, the odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1·15 (1·08–1·22; p=1·8 × 10−6) compared with people who carried no IL-1Ra-raising alleles; the per-allele odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1·03 (1·02–1·04; p=3·9 × 10−10). Per-allele odds ratios were 0·97 (0·95–0·99; p=9·9 × 10−4) for rheumatoid arthritis, 0·99 (0·97–1·01; p=0·47) for type 2 diabetes, 1·00 (0·98–1·02; p=0·92) for ischaemic stroke, and 1·08 (1·04–1·12; p=1·8 × 10−5) for abdominal aortic aneurysm. In exploratory analyses, we observed per-allele increases in concentrations of proatherogenic lipids, including LDL-cholesterol, but no clear evidence of association for blood pressure, glycaemic traits, or any of the 24 other disorders studied. Modelling suggested that the observed increase in LDL-cholesterol could account for about a third of the association observed between the genetic score and increased coronary risk. Interpretation Human genetic data suggest that long-term dual IL-1α/β inhibition could increase cardiovascular risk and, conversely, reduce the risk of development of rheumatoid arthritis. The cardiovascular risk might, in part, be mediated through an increase in proatherogenic lipid concentrations. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, UK National Institute for Health Research, National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, European Research Council, and European Commission Framework Programme 7.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age���sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Risk analysis of prostate cancer in PRACTICAL, a multinational consortium, using 25 known prostate cancer susceptibility loci

Background Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic variants associated with prostate cancer risk which explain a substantial proportion of familial relative risk. These variants can be used to stratify individuals by their risk of prostate cancer. Methods We genotyped 25 prostate cancer susceptibility loci in 40,414 individuals and derived a polygenic risk score (PRS).We estimated empirical odds ratios (OR) for prostate cancer associated with different risk strata defined by PRS and derived agespecific absolute risks of developing prostate cancer by PRS stratum and family history. Results The prostate cancer risk for men in the top 1% of the PRS distribution was 30.6 (95% CI, 16.4-57.3) fold compared with men in the bottom 1%, and 4.2 (95% CI, 3.2-5.5) fold compared with the median risk. The absolute risk of prostate cancer by age of 85 years was 65.8% for a man with family history in the top 1% of the PRS distribution, compared with 3.7% for a man in the bottom 1%. The PRS was only weakly correlated with serum PSA level (correlation = 0.09). Conclusions Risk profiling can identify men at substantially increased or reduced risk of prostate cancer. The effect size, measured by OR per unit PRS, was higher in men at younger ages and in men with family history of prostate cancer. Incorporating additional newly identified loci into a PRS should improve the predictive value of risk profiles. Impact:We demonstrate that the risk profiling based on SNPs can identify men at substantially increased or reduced risk that could have useful implications for targeted prevention and screening programs.

The North in the Old English Orosius : A Geographical Narrative in Context

This doctoral dissertation examines the description of the North as it appears in the Old English Orosius (OE Or.) in the form of the travel accounts by Ohthere and Wulfstan and a catalogue of peoples of Germania. The description is discussed in the context of ancient and early medieval textual and cartographic descriptions of the North, with a special emphasis on Anglo-Saxon sources and the intellectual context of the reign of King Alfred (871-899). This is the first time that these sources, a multidisciplinary approach and secondary literature, also from Scandinavia and Finland, have been brought together. The discussion is source-based, and archaeological theories and geographical ideas are used to support the primary evidence. This study belongs to the disciplines of early medieval literature and (cultural) history, Anglo-Saxon studies, English philology, and historical geography. The OE Or. was probably part of Alfred s educational campaign, which conveyed royal ideology to the contemporary elite. The accounts and catalogue are original interpolations which represent a unique historical source for the Viking Age. They contain unparalleled information about peoples and places in Fennoscandia and the southern Baltic and sailing voyages to the White Sea, the Danish lands, and the Lower Vistula. The historical-philological analysis reveals an emphasis on wealth and property, rank, luxury goods, settlement patterns, and territorial divisions. Trade is strongly implied by the mentions of central places and northern products, such as walrus ivory. The references to such peoples as the Finnas, the Cwenas, and the Beormas appear in connection with information about geography and subsistence in the far North. Many of the topics in the accounts relate to Anglo-Saxon aristocratic culture and interests. The accounts focus on the areas associated with the Northmen, the Danes and the Este. These areas resonated in the Anglo-Saxon geographical imagination: they were curious about the northern margin of the world, their own continental ancestry and the geography of their homeland of Angeln, and they had an interest in the Goths and their connection with the southern Baltic in mythogeography. The non-judgemental representation of the North as generally peaceful and relatively normal place is related to Alfredian and Orosian ideas about the unity and spreading of Christendom, and to desires for unity among the Germani and for peace with the Vikings, who were settling in England. These intellectual contexts reflect the innovative and organizational forces of Alfred s reign. The description of the North in the OE Or. can be located in the context of the Anglo-Saxon worldview and geographical mindset. It mirrors the geographical curiosity expressed in other Anglo-Saxon sources, such as the poem Widsith and the Anglo-Saxon mappa mundi. The northern section of this early eleventh-century world map is analyzed in detail here for the first time. It is suggested that the section depicts the North Atlantic and the Scandinavian Peninsula. The survey of ancient and early medieval sources provides a comparative context for the OE Or. In this material, produced by such authors as Strabo, Pliny, Tacitus, Jordanes, and Rimbert, the significance of the North was related to the search for and definition of the northern edge of the world, universal accounts of the world, the northern homeland in the origin stories of the gentes, and Carolingian expansion and missionary activity. These frameworks were transmitted to Anglo-Saxon literary culture, where the North occurs in the context of the definition of Britain s place in the world.