DESCRIPCIÓN Y ANÁLISIS DE LOS HALLAZGOS DE LAS INVESTIGACIONES HECHAS POR STEFAN TENGBLAD SOBRE LA PRÁCTICA DIRECTIVA HASTA EL AÑO 2014

Se realizó el análisis de ocho artículos y un libro escrito por el profesor Stefan Tengblad desde el 2000 hasta el 2012. Durante 12 años, el autor sueco se ha dado la tarea de analizar no solo los resultados obtenidos por los escritores más importantes sobre la práctica directiva, sino que también se puso en la tarea de comparar sus estudios y resultados. En las reseñas reconstructivas se pueden identificar las variables más importantes y las conclusiones que Tengblad obtuvo después de muchos años de estudio. Nuestro principal objetivo es descubrir, analizar y comprender las investigaciones hechas por el escritor sueco sobre la naturaleza de la práctica directiva hasta el año 2014. De esta manera podremos ver si las diferentes posiciones de los autores han cambiado con los años. Trataremos algunas variables importantes de la práctica directiva como el liderazgo, la fragmentación del trabajo, la comunicación escrita y electrónica, los valores, los objetivos, la toma de decisiones, las normas, la cultura corporativa, la estructura organizacional, las expectativas internas y externas, entre otras. Todo esto nos llevará a identificar a profundidad el discurso del profesor Stefan Tengblad y los aportes que le ha hecho a la comunidad no solo académica sino también laboral.

Mitificación y oralidad en el otoño del patriarca de Gabriel García Márquez

El actual documento presenta los resultados de una investigación que vengo desarrollando hace algunos años sobre El Otoño del Patriarca. Esta investigación sufrió una importante variación en torno a la reflexión sobre los propósitos de la lectura filosófica de un texto literario, y ha sido consecuencia de, por un lado, un desplazamiento en la determinación de las relaciones entre las dimensiones del lenguaje, el poder, el tiempo y el espacio abiertos por la narración, y por otro, de una diferencia de concepción sobre la formación discursiva de estas relaciones en El Otoño del Patriarca como obra narrativa, oral y poética.

Historias y Realidades: ¿Qué hacen los directivos?

El propósito central del estudio consiste en descifrar, entender, contextualizar y reinventar el trabajo directivo actual. En el inicio del texto se busca comprender las realidades sobre el trabajo directivo desde la perspectiva y estudios de dos autores principales, Henry Mintzberg y Stefan Tengblad, los cuales exponen desde otro ángulo el día a día de los directivos; posteriormente se presenta la influencia que tiene el contexto nacional en los diferentes comportamientos y modelos de dirección, haciendo una comparación entre los directivos Suecos y Estado Unidenses para concluir las variables culturales, económicas, políticas y sociales que modifican y personalizan el trabajo directivo; finalmente en la última sección, después de comprender el trabajo directivo desde su naturaleza y sus fuentes externas de influencia, se propone reinventarlo o desde diferentes postulados y modelos, entendiendo que no existe una solución o fórmula mágica, sino unas herramientas que cada directivo debe definir y construir a lo largo de su vida.

Optimal management of natural resources. Accounting for heterogeneity

Dynamic optimization methods have become increasingly important over the last years in economics. Within the dynamic optimization techniques employed, optimal control has emerged as the most powerful tool for the theoretical economic analysis. However, there is the need to advance further and take account that many dynamic economic processes are, in addition, dependent on some other parameter different than time. One can think of relaxing the assumption of a representative (homogeneous) agent in macro- and micro-economic applications allowing for heterogeneity among the agents. For instance, the optimal adaptation and diffusion of a new technology over time, may depend on the age of the person that adopted the new technology. Therefore, the economic models must take account of heterogeneity conditions within the dynamic framework. This thesis intends to accomplish two goals. The first goal is to analyze and revise existing environmental policies that focus on defining the optimal management of natural resources over time, by taking account of the heterogeneity of environmental conditions. Thus, the thesis makes a policy orientated contribution in the field of environmental policy by defining the necessary changes to transform an environmental policy based on the assumption of homogeneity into an environmental policy which takes account of heterogeneity. As a result the newly defined environmental policy will be more efficient and likely also politically more acceptable since it is tailored more specifically to the heterogeneous environmental conditions. Additionally to its policy orientated contribution, this thesis aims making a methodological contribution by applying a new optimization technique for solving problems where the control variables depend on two or more arguments --- the so-called two-stage solution approach ---, and by applying a numerical method --- the Escalator Boxcar Train Method --- for solving distributed optimal control problems, i.e., problems where the state variables, in addition to the control variables, depend on two or more arguments. Chapter 2 presents a theoretical framework to determine optimal resource allocation over time for the production of a good by heterogeneous producers, who generate a stock externalit and derives government policies to modify the behavior of competitive producers in order to achieve optimality. Chapter 3 illustrates the method in a more specific context, and integrates the aspects of quality and time, presenting a theoretical model that allows to determine the socially optimal outcome over time and space for the problem of waterlogging in irrigated agricultural production. Chapter 4 of this thesis concentrates on forestry resources and analyses the optimal selective-logging regime of a size-distributed forest.

América Latina y Europa ante los cambios globales (Tema Central)

El artículo se refiere a los cambios globales que se han dado en el sistema internacional cuyo resultado ha sido el debilitamiento de la gobernanza global. En esta lógica, el autor argumenta que las relaciones de poder han provocado un cambio en los conceptos tradicionales de las Ciencias Sociales y las Relaciones Internacionales, especialmente los relacionados al tiempo y espacio que en la actualidad son globales y simultáneos. Finalmente concluye que varias tendencias afectarán a América Latina y a la Unión Europea en cuanto a la globalización, la paz, el afianzamiento del sistema democrático, la diplomacia de cumbres, la cooperación y al poder como elemento cambiante.

Mathematical notation: help or hindrance?

In this article Geoff Tennant puts forward a range of reasons for using mathematical notation, emphasising the need to allow children learning it time and space to come to terms with it. Examples are given in furthering the argument that the time to introduce notation is after the concept is already fully understood.

Diagnosing atmosphere–land feedbacks in CMIP5 climate models

Human-made transformations to the environment, and in particular the land surface, are having a large impact on the distribution (in both time and space) of rainfall, upon which all life is reliant. Focusing on precipitation, soil moisture and near-surface temperature, we compare data from Phase 5 of the Climate Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), as well as blended observational–satellite data, to see how the interaction between rainfall and the land surface differs (or agrees) between the models and reality, at daily timescales. As expected, the results suggest a strong positive relationship between precipitation and soil moisture when precipitation leads and is concurrent with soil moisture estimates, for the tropics as a whole. Conversely a negative relationship is shown when soil moisture leads rainfall by a day or more. A weak positive relationship between precipitation and temperature is shown when either leads by one day, whereas a weak negative relationship is shown over the same time period between soil moisture and temperature. Temporally, in terms of lag and lead relationships, the models appear to be in agreement on the overall patterns of correlation between rainfall and soil moisture. However, in terms of spatial patterns, a comparison of these relationships across all available models reveals considerable variability in the ability of the models to reproduce the correlations between precipitation and soil moisture. There is also a difference in the timings of the correlations, with some models showing the highest positive correlations when precipitation leads soil moisture by one day. Finally, the results suggest that there are 'hotspots' of high linear gradients between precipitation and soil moisture, corresponding to regions experiencing heavy rainfall. These results point to an inability of the CMIP5 models to simulate a positive feedback between soil moisture and precipitation at daily timescales. Longer timescale comparisons and experiments at higher spatial resolutions, where the impact of the spatial heterogeneity of rainfall on the initiation of convection and supply of moisture is included, would be expected to improve process understanding further.

Climate warming–related strengthening of the tropical hydrological cycle

The authors estimate climate warming–related twenty-first-century changes of moisture transports from the descending into the ascending regions in the tropics. Unlike previous studies that employ time and space averaging, here homogeneous high horizontal and vertical resolution data from an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) climate model are used. This allows for estimating changes in much greater detail (e.g., the estimation of the distribution of ascending and descending regions, changes in the vertical profile, and separating changes of the inward and outward transports). Low-level inward and midlevel outward moisture transports of the convective regions in the tropics are found to increase in a simulated anthropogenically warmed climate as compared to a simulated twentieth-century atmosphere, indicating an intensification of the hydrological cycle. Since an increase of absolute inward transport exceeds the absolute increase of outward transport, the resulting budget is positive, meaning that more water is projected to converge in the moist tropics. The intensification is found mainly to be due to the higher amount of water in the atmosphere, while the contribution of weakening wind counteracts this response marginally. In addition the changing statistical properties of the vertical profile of the moisture transport are investigated and the importance of the substantial outflow of moisture from the moist tropics at midlevels is demonstrated.

Design of a forecasting system for ECMWF

As laid out in its convention there are 8 different objectives for ECMWF. One of the major objectives will consist of the preparation, on a regular basis, of the data necessary for the preparation of medium-range weather forecasts. The interpretation of this item is that the Centre will make forecasts once a day for a prediction period of up to 10 days. It is also evident that the Centre should not carry out any real weather forecasting but merely disseminate to the member countries the basic forecasting parameters with an appropriate resolution in space and time. It follows from this that the forecasting system at the Centre must from the operational point of view be functionally integrated with the Weather Services of the Member Countries. The operational interface between ECMWF and the Member Countries must be properly specified in order to get a reasonable flexibility for both systems. The problem of making numerical atmospheric predictions for periods beyond 4-5 days differs substantially from 2-3 days forecasting. From the physical point we can define a medium range forecast as a forecast where the initial disturbances have lost their individual structure. However we are still interested to predict the atmosphere in a similar way as in short range forecasting which means that the model must be able to predict the dissipation and decay of the initial phenomena and the creation of new ones. With this definition, medium range forecasting is indeed very difficult and generally regarded as more difficult than extended forecasts, where we usually only predict time and space mean values. The predictability of atmospheric flow has been extensively studied during the last years in theoretical investigations and by numerical experiments. As has been discussed elsewhere in this publication (see pp 338 and 431) a 10-day forecast is apparently on the fringe of predictability.

Neuromantic : from semi-manual to semi-automatic reconstruction of neuron morphology

The ability to create accurate geometric models of neuronal morphology is important for understanding the role of shape in information processing. Despite a significant amount of research on automating neuron reconstructions from image stacks obtained via microscopy, in practice most data are still collected manually. This paper describes Neuromantic, an open source system for three dimensional digital tracing of neurites. Neuromantic reconstructions are comparable in quality to those of existing commercial and freeware systems while balancing speed and accuracy of manual reconstruction. The combination of semi-automatic tracing, intuitive editing, and ability of visualizing large image stacks on standard computing platforms provides a versatile tool that can help address the reconstructions availability bottleneck. Practical considerations for reducing the computational time and space requirements of the extended algorithm are also discussed.

Optimal estimation of sea surface temperature from split-window observations

Optimal estimation (OE) improves sea surface temperature (SST) estimated from satellite infrared imagery in the “split-window”, in comparison to SST retrieved using the usual multi-channel (MCSST) or non-linear (NLSST) estimators. This is demonstrated using three months of observations of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the first Meteorological Operational satellite (Metop-A), matched in time and space to drifter SSTs collected on the global telecommunications system. There are 32,175 matches. The prior for the OE is forecast atmospheric fields from the Météo-France global numerical weather prediction system (ARPEGE), the forward model is RTTOV8.7, and a reduced state vector comprising SST and total column water vapour (TCWV) is used. Operational NLSST coefficients give mean and standard deviation (SD) of the difference between satellite and drifter SSTs of 0.00 and 0.72 K. The “best possible” NLSST and MCSST coefficients, empirically regressed on the data themselves, give zero mean difference and SDs of 0.66 K and 0.73 K respectively. Significant contributions to the global SD arise from regional systematic errors (biases) of several tenths of kelvin in the NLSST. With no bias corrections to either prior fields or forward model, the SSTs retrieved by OE minus drifter SSTs have mean and SD of − 0.16 and 0.49 K respectively. The reduction in SD below the “best possible” regression results shows that OE deals with structural limitations of the NLSST and MCSST algorithms. Using simple empirical bias corrections to improve the OE, retrieved minus drifter SSTs are obtained with mean and SD of − 0.06 and 0.44 K respectively. Regional biases are greatly reduced, such that the absolute bias is less than 0.1 K in 61% of 10°-latitude by 30°-longitude cells. OE also allows a statistic of the agreement between modelled and measured brightness temperatures to be calculated. We show that this measure is more efficient than the current system of confidence levels at identifying reliable retrievals, and that the best 75% of satellite SSTs by this measure have negligible bias and retrieval error of order 0.25 K.

Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July-September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: a case study.

We present a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning in the Upper Huai catchment (ca. 30 672 km2). TIGGE ensemble forecasts from 6 meteorological centres with 10-day lead time were extracted and disaggregated to drive the Xinanjiang model to forecast discharges for flood events in July-September 2008. The results demonstrated satisfactory flood forecasting skills with clear signals of floods up to 10 days in advance. The forecasts occasionally show discrepancies both in time and space. Forecasting quality could potentially be improved by using temporal and spatial corrections of the forecasted precipitation.

Forecasters priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts.

Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

Configurations institutionnelles de la protection de l’enfance: regards croisés de l’Afrique, de l’Europe et de l’Amérique du Nord

Cet article porte sur l’analyse de trois configurations institutionnelles de la protection de l’enfance : celle en place au Burkina Faso, en Belgique et au Québec. Pour chaque configuration, le texte explore les transformations qui ont marqué le passage de la prise en charge exclusive de l’enfant par la famille vers la présence accrue de l’État et la manière dont la Convention internationale des droits de l’enfant de 1989 a influencé ce passage. Il montre, au travers d’une lecture historique, que l’implication de l’État dans la protection des enfants a connu des formes et des modalités variables selon le temps et l’espace. L’approche actuelle en matière de protection de l’enfance au Nord et au Sud, approche largement inspirée de la perspective des droits, représente un défi tant pour les intervenants que pour les familles, car son application dépend à fois des ressources disponibles pour aider les enfants et les familles en difficulté, de la capacité d’action des institutions publiques et de l’efficacité des interventions. This article deals with the analysis of three institutional configurations of child protection: those in Burkina Faso, in Belgium, and in Québec. With respect to each configuration, the text explores the changes from situations in which the family had sole control of the child to those where the State played a greater role, and the manner in which the 1989 International Convention on the Rights of the Child has affected such changes. It shows, through a reading of history, that the involvement of the State in child protection has gone through different forms and stages over time and space. The current strategies as regards child protection in the North and in the South—an approach that is largely subject to a legal perspective—represent a challenge both for intervenors and for families, since their application depends on the resources available for helping children and families in difficulty, on the ability of the public institutions to intervene, and on the efficiency of such interventions.