PyRate: a new program to estimate speciation and extinction rates from incomplete fossil data

Despite the advancement of phylogenetic methods to estimate speciation and extinction rates, their power can be limited under variable rates, in particular for clades with high extinction rates and small number of extant species. Fossil data can provide a powerful alternative source of information to investigate diversification processes. Here, we present PyRate, a computer program to estimate speciation and extinction rates and their temporal dynamics from fossil occurrence data. The rates are inferred in a Bayesian framework and are comparable to those estimated from phylogenetic trees. We describe how PyRate can be used to explore different models of diversification. In addition to the diversification rates, it provides estimates of the parameters of the preservation process (fossilization and sampling) and the times of speciation and extinction of each species in the data set. Moreover, we develop a new birth-death model to correlate the variation of speciation/extinction rates with changes of a continuous trait. Finally, we demonstrate the use of Bayes factors for model selection and show how the posterior estimates of a PyRate analysis can be used to generate calibration densities for Bayesian molecular clock analysis. PyRate is an open-source command-line Python program available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/pyrate/.

The Anarak, Jandaq and Posht-e-Badam metamorphic complexes in central Iran: New geological data, relationships and tectonic implications

The Anarak, Jandaq and Posht-e-Badam metamorphic complexes occupy the NW part of the Central-East Iranian Microcontinent and are juxtaposed with the Great Kavir block and Sanandaj-Sirjan zone. Our recent findings redefine the origin of these complexes, so far attributed to the Precambrian-Early Paleozoic orogenic episodes, and now directly related to the tectonic evolution of the Paleo-Tethys Ocean. This tectonic evolution was initiated by Late Ordovician-Early Devonian rifting events and terminated in the Triassic by the Eocimmerian collision event due to the docking of the Cimmerian blocks with the Asiatic Turan block. The ``Variscan accretionary complex'' is a new name we proposed for the most widely distributed metamorphic rocks connected to the Anarak and Jandaq complexes. This accretionary complex exposed from SW of Jandaq to the Anarak and Kabudan areas is a thick and fine grain siliciclastic sequence accompanied by marginal-sea ophiolitic remnants, including gabbro-basalts with a supra-subduction-geochemical signature. New Ar-40/Ar-39 ages are obtained as 333-320 Ma for the metamorphism of this sequence under greenschist to amphibolite facies. Moreover, the limy intercalations in the volcano-sedimentary part of this complex in Godar-e-Siah yielded Upper Devonian-Tournaisian conodonts. The northeastern part of this complex in the Jandaq area was intruded by 215 +/- 15 Ma arc to collisional granite and pegmatites dated by ID-TIMS and its metamorphic rocks are characterized by Some Ar-40/Ar-39 radiometric ages of 163-156 Ma. The ``Variscan'' accretionary complex was northwardly accreted to the Airekan granitic terrane dated at 549 +/- 15 Ma. Later, from the Late Carboniferous to Triassic, huge amounts of oceanic material were accreted to its southern side and penetrated by several seamounts such as the Anarak and Kabudan. This new period of accretion is supported by the 280-230 Ma Ar-40/Ar-39 ages for the Anarak mild high-pressure metamorphic rocks and a 262 Ma U-Pb age for the trondhjemite-rhyolite association of that area. The Triassic Bayazeh flysch filled the foreland basin during the final closure of the Paleo-Tethys Ocean and was partly deposited and/or thrusted onto the Cimmerian Yazd block. The Paleo-Tethys magmatic arc products have been well-preserved in the Late Devonian-Carboniferous Godar-e-Siah intra-arc deposits and the Triassic Nakhlak fore-arc succession. On the passive margin of the Cimmerian block, in the Yazd region, the nearly continuous Upper Paleozoic platform-type deposition was totally interrupted during the Middle to Late Triassic. Local erosion, down to Lower Paleozoic levels, may be related to flexural bulge erosion. The platform was finally unconformably covered by Liassic continental molassic deposits of the Shemshak. One of the extensional periods related to Neo-Tethyan back-arc rifting in Late Cretaceous time finally separated parts of the Eocimmerian collisional domain from the Eurasian Turan domain. The opening and closing of this new ocean, characterized by the Nain and Sabzevar ophiolitic melanges, finally transported the Anarak-Jandaq composite terrane to Central Iran, accompanied by large scale rotation of the Central-East Iranian Microcontinent (CEIM). Due to many similarities between the Posht-e-Badam metamorphic complex and the Anarak-Jandaq composite terrane, the former could be part of the latter, if it was transported further south during Tertiary time. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comment on "Geochemistry, petrogenesis and tectonic setting of the Samothraki mafic suite, NE Greece: Trace-element, isotopic and zircon age constraints'' by N. Koglin, D. Kostopoulos & T. Reischmann [Tectonophysics 473, 53-68 (doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2008.10.028)]

The work by Koglin et al. (Koglin, N., Kostopoulos, D., Reichmann, T., 2009. Geochemistry, petrogenesis and tectonic setting of the Samothraki mafic Suite, NE Greece: Trace-element, isotopic and zircon age constraints. Tectonophysics 473, 53-68. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2008.10.028), where the authors have proposed to nullify the scenario presented by Bonev and Stampfli (Bonev, N., Stampfli, G., 2008. Petrology, geochemistry and geodynamic implications of Jurassic island arc magmatism as revealed by mafic volcanic rocks in the Mesozoic low-grade sequence, eastern Rhodope, Bulgaria. Lithos 100, 210-233) is here Put under discussion. The arguments for this proposal are reviewed in the light of available stratigraphic and radiometric age constraints, geochemical signature and tectonics of highly relevant Jurassic ophiolitic suites occurring immediately north of the Samothraki mafic suite. Our conclusion is that the weak arguments and the lack of knowledge on the relevant constraints from the regional geologic information make inconsistent the Proposal and the model of these authors. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Why England? Demand, growth and inequality during the Industrial Revolution

Why was England first? And why Europe? We present a probabilistic model that builds on big-push models by Murphy, Shleifer and Vishny (1989), combined with hierarchical preferences. The interaction of exogenous demographic factors (in particular the English low-pressure variant of the European marriage pattern)and redistributive institutions such as the old Poor Law combined to make an Industrial Revolution more likely. Essentially, industrialization is the result of having a critical mass of consumers that is rich enough to afford (potentially) mass-produced goods. Our model is then calibrated to match the main characteristics of the English economy in 1750 and the observed transition until 1850.This allows us to address explicitly one of the key features of the British IndustrialRevolution unearthed by economic historians over the last three decades the slowness of productivity and output change. In our calibration, we find that the probability of Britain industrializing is 5 times larger than France s. Contrary to the recent argument by Pomeranz, China in the 18th century had essentially no chance to industrialize at all. This difference is decomposed into a demographic and a policy component, with the former being far more important than the latter.

Testing calibrated general equilibrium models

This paper illustrates the philosophy which forms the basis of calibrationexercises in general equilibrium macroeconomic models and the details of theprocedure, the advantages and the disadvantages of the approach, with particularreference to the issue of testing ``false'' economic models. We provide anoverview of the most recent simulation--based approaches to the testing problemand compare them to standard econometric methods used to test the fit of non--lineardynamic general equilibrium models. We illustrate how simulation--based techniques can be used to formally evaluate the fit of a calibrated modelto the data and obtain ideas on how to improve the model design using a standardproblem in the international real business cycle literature, i.e. whether amodel with complete financial markets and no restrictions to capital mobility is able to reproduce the second order properties of aggregate savingand aggregate investment in an open economy.

Analysis of the enantiomers of citalopram and its demethylated metabolites using chiral liquid chromatography.

A procedure using a chirobiotic V column is presented which allows separation of the enantiomers of citalopram and its two N-demethylated metabolites, and of the internal standard, alprenolol, in human plasma. Citalopram, demethylcitalopram and didemethylcitalopram, as well as the internal standard, were recovered from plasma by liquid-liquid extraction. The limits of quantification were found to be 5 ng/ml for each enantiomer of citalopram and demethylcitalopram, and 7.5 ng/ml for each enantiomer of didemethylcitalopram. Inter- and intra-day coefficients of variation varied from 2.4% to 8.6% for S- and R-citalopram, from 2.9% to 7.4% for S- and R-demethylcitalopram, and from 5.6% to 12.4% for S- and R- didemethylcitalopram. No interference was observed from endogenous compounds following the extraction of plasma samples from 10 different patients treated with citalopram. This method allows accurate quantification for each enantiomer and is, therefore, well suited for pharmacokinetic and drug interaction investigations. The presented method replaces a previously described highly sensitive and selective high-performance liquid chromatography procedure using an acetylated 3-cyclobond column which, because of manufactural problems, is no longer usable for the separation of the enantiomers of citalopram and its demethylated metabolites.

Validation of methane measurement using headspace-GC-MS and quantification by a stable isotope-labeled internal standard generated in situ.

A previous study has shown the possibility to identify methane (CH4 ) using headspace-GC-MS and quantify it with a stable isotope as internal standard. The main drawback of the GC-MS methods discussed in literature for CH4 measurement is the absence of a specific internal standard necessary to perform quantification. However, it becomes essential to develop a safer method to limit the manipulation of gaseous CH4 and to precisely control the injected amount of gas for spiking and calibration by comparison with external calibration. To avoid the manipulation of a stable isotope-labeled gas, we have chosen to generate a labeled gas as an internal standard in a vial on the basis of the formation of CH4 by the reaction of Grignard reagent methylmagnesium chloride with deuterated water. This method allows precise measurement of CH4 concentrations in gaseous sample as well as in a solid or a liquid sample after a thermodesorption step in a headspace vial. A full accuracy profile validation of this method is then presented.

Integration of high-resolution geophysical data for the characterization of alluvial aquifers : new approaches and implications for hydrological predictions

Abstract Accurate characterization of the spatial distribution of hydrological properties in heterogeneous aquifers at a range of scales is a key prerequisite for reliable modeling of subsurface contaminant transport, and is essential for designing effective and cost-efficient groundwater management and remediation strategies. To this end, high-resolution geophysical methods have shown significant potential to bridge a critical gap in subsurface resolution and coverage between traditional hydrological measurement techniques such as borehole log/core analyses and tracer or pumping tests. An important and still largely unresolved issue, however, is how to best quantitatively integrate geophysical data into a characterization study in order to estimate the spatial distribution of one or more pertinent hydrological parameters, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first develop a strategy for the assimilation of several types of hydrogeophysical data having varying degrees of resolution, subsurface coverage, and sensitivity to the hydrologic parameter of interest. In this regard a novel simulated annealing (SA)-based conditional simulation approach was developed and then tested in its ability to generate realizations of porosity given crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and neutron porosity log data. This was done successfully for both synthetic and field data sets. A subsequent issue that needed to be addressed involved assessing the potential benefits and implications of the resulting porosity realizations in terms of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. This was investigated synthetically assuming first that the relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity was well-defined. Then, the relationship was itself investigated in the context of a calibration procedure using hypothetical tracer test data. Essentially, the relationship best predicting the observed tracer test measurements was determined given the geophysically derived porosity structure. Both of these investigations showed that the SA-based approach, in general, allows much more reliable hydrological predictions than other more elementary techniques considered. Further, the developed calibration procedure was seen to be very effective, even at the scale of tomographic resolution, for predictions of transport. This also held true at locations within the aquifer where only geophysical data were available. This is significant because the acquisition of hydrological tracer test measurements is clearly more complicated and expensive than the acquisition of geophysical measurements. Although the above methodologies were tested using porosity logs and GPR data, the findings are expected to remain valid for a large number of pertinent combinations of geophysical and borehole log data of comparable resolution and sensitivity to the hydrological target parameter. Moreover, the obtained results allow us to have confidence for future developments in integration methodologies for geophysical and hydrological data to improve the 3-D estimation of hydrological properties.

Endogenous labor market participation and the business cycle

Existing models of equilibrium unemployment with endogenous labor market participation are complex, generate procyclical unemployment rates and cannot match unemployment variability relative to GDP. We embed endogenous participation in a simple, tractable job market matching model, show analytically how variations in the participation rate are driven by the cross-sectional density of home productivity near the participation threshold, andhow this density translates into an extensive-margin labor supply elasticity. A calibration of the model to macro data not only matches employment and participation variabilities but also generates strongly countercyclical unemployment rates. With some wage rigidity the model also matches unemployment variations well. Furthermore, the labor supply elasticity implied by our calibration is consistent with microeconometric evidence for the US.

Modelo de evaluación integrada del stock norte-centro de la anchoveta peruana Engraulis ringens Jenyns

Se presenta un nuevo modelo integrado de evaluación para el stock norte-centro de la anchoveta peruana que permite reconstruir y hacer un seguimiento de la estructura de longitudes del stock desde un modelo basado en edades. El modelo fue calibrado usando estimados acústicos de biomasa y estructuras de tallas provenientes de cruceros científicos y de desembarques de la pesquería. Para la calibración se utilizó un algoritmo evolutivo con diferentes funciones de aptitud para cada variable calibrada (biomasas y capturas). Se presentan los estimados mensuales de biomasa total, biomasa desovante, reclutamiento y mortalidad por pesca obtenidos por el modelo de evaluación integrada para el periodo 1964-2008. Se encontraron tres periodos cualitativamente distintos en la dinámica de anchoveta, entre 1961-1971, 1971-1991 y 1991 al presente, que se distinguen tanto por las biomasas medias anuales como por los niveles de reclutamiento observado.

Retention half times in the skeleton of plutonium and 90Sr from above-ground nuclear tests: a retrospective study of the Swiss population.

Plutonium and (90)Sr are considered to be among the most radiotoxic nuclides produced by the nuclear fission process. In spite of numerous studies on mammals and humans there is still no general agreement on the retention half time of both radionuclides in the skeleton in the general population. Here we determined plutonium and (90)Sr in human vertebrae in individuals deceased between 1960 and 2004 in Switzerland. Plutonium was measured by sensitive SF-ICP-MS techniques and (90)Sr by radiometric methods. We compared our results to the ones obtained for other environmental compartments to reveal the retention half time of NBT fallout (239)Pu and (90)Sr in trabecular bones of the Swiss population. Results show that plutonium has a retention half time of 40+/-14 years. In contrast (90)Sr has a shorter retention half time of 13.5+/-1.0 years. Moreover (90)Sr retention half time in vertebrae is shown to be linked to the retention half time in food and other environmental compartments. These findings demonstrate that the renewal of the vertebrae through calcium homeostatic control is faster for (90)Sr excretion than for plutonium excretion. The precise determination of the retention half time of plutonium in the skeleton will improve the biokinetic model of plutonium metabolism in humans.

Tectonics of the Simplon massif and Lepontine gneiss dome: deformation structures due to collision between the underthrusting European plate and the Adriatic indenter

this study presents a review of published geological data, combined with original observations on the tectonics of the simplon massif and the Lepontine gneiss dome in the Western Alps. New observations concern the geometry of the Oligocene Vanzone back fold, formed under amphibolite facies conditions, and of its root between Domodossola and Locarno, which is cut at an acute angle by the Miocene, epi- to anchizonal, dextral centovalli strike-slip fault. the structures of the simplon massif result from collision over 50 Ma between two plate boundaries with a different geometry: the underthrusted European plate and the Adriatic indenter. Detailed mapping and analysis of a complex structural interference pattern, combined with observations on the metamorphic grade of the superimposed structures and radiometric data, allow a kinematic model to be developed for this zone of oblique continental collision. the following main Alpine tectonic phases and structures may be distinguished: 1. NW-directed nappe emplacement, starting in the Early Eocene (similar to 50 Ma); 2. W, SW and S- verging transverse folds; 3. transpressional movements on the dextral simplon ductile shear zone since similar to 32 Ma; 4. formation of the Bergell - Vanzone backfolds and of the southern steep belt during the Oligocene, emplacement of the mantle derived 31 - 29 Ma Bergell and Biella granodiorites and porphyritic andesites as well as intrusions of 29-25 Ma crustal aplites and pegmatites; 5. formation of the dextral discrete Rhone-Simplon line and the centovalli line during the Miocene, accompanied by the pull-apart development of the Lepontine gneiss dome - Dent blanche (Valpelline) depression. It is suggested that movements of shortening in fan shaped NW, W and sW directions accompanied the more regular NW- to WNW-directed displacement of the Adriatic indenter during continental collision.

Determination of extreme floods using a distributed hydrological model

Hydrological models developed for extreme precipitation of PMP type are difficult to calibrate because of the scarcity of available data for these events. This article presents the process and results of calibration for a distributed hydrological model at fine scale developed for the estimation of probable maximal floods in the case of a PMP. This calibration is done on two Swiss catchments for two events of summer storms. The calculation done is concentrated on the estimation of the parameters of the model, divided in two parts. The first is necessary for the computation of flow speeds while the second is required for the determination of the initial and final infiltration capacities for each terrain type. The results, validated with the Nash equation show a good correlation between the simulated and observed flows. We also apply this model on two Romanian catchments, showing the river network and estimated flow.

The three horsemen of riches: Plague, war and urbanization in early modern Europe

How did Europe escape the "Iron Law of Wages?" We construct a simple Malthusian model withtwo sectors and multiple steady states, and use it to explain why European per capita incomes andurbanization rates increased during the period 1350-1700. Productivity growth can only explain a smallfraction of the rise in output per capita. Population dynamics changes of the birth and death schedules were far more important determinants of steady states. We show how a major shock to population cantrigger a transition to a new steady state with higher per-capita income. The Black Death was such ashock, raising wages substantially. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, andurban centers grew in size. European cities were unhealthy, and rising urbanization pushed up aggregatedeath rates. This effect was reinforced by diseases spread through war, financed by higher tax revenues.In addition, rising trade also spread diseases. In this way higher wages themselves reduced populationpressure. We show in a calibration exercise that our model can account for the sustained rise in Europeanurbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes in 1700, without technological change.Wars contributed importantly to the "Rise of Europe", even if they had negative short-run effects. We thustrace Europe s precocious rise to economic riches to interactions of the plague shock with the belligerentpolitical environment and the nature of cities.

Parallelizing remote sensing image geometric correction

Remote sensing spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions of images, acquired over a reasonably sized image extent, result in imagery that can be processed to represent land cover over large areas with an amount of spatial detail that is very attractive for monitoring, management, and scienti c activities. With Moore's Law alive and well, more and more parallelism is introduced into all computing platforms, at all levels of integration and programming to achieve higher performance and energy e ciency. Being the geometric calibration process one of the most time consuming processes when using remote sensing images, the aim of this work is to accelerate this process by taking advantage of new computing architectures and technologies, specially focusing in exploiting computation over shared memory multi-threading hardware. A parallel implementation of the most time consuming process in the remote sensing geometric correction has been implemented using OpenMP directives. This work compares the performance of the original serial binary versus the parallelized implementation, using several multi-threaded modern CPU architectures, discussing about the approach to nd the optimum hardware for a cost-e ective execution.