Television viewing habits associated with obesity risk factors: a survey of Melbourne schoolchildren.

Objectives: To examine whether children’s television viewing may be a useful indicator of risk of obesity-promoting versus healthy eating behaviours, low-level physical activity (PA) and overweight or obesity among children of primary school entry and exit ages. Design: Cross-sectional study, stratified by area-level socioeconomic status. Participants and setting: 1560 children (613 aged 5–6 years [50% boys], and 947 aged 10–12 years [46% boys]) from 24 primary schools in Melbourne, Australia, randomly selected proportionate to school size between 1 November 2002 and 30 December 2003 . Main outcome measures: Parents’ reports of the time their child spends watching television, their participation in organised physical activities (PA), and their food intake; each child’s measured height and weight and their PA levels as assessed by accelerometry for one week. Results: After adjusting for the age and sex of child, the parents’ level of education, clustering by school, and all other health behaviour variables, children who watched television for > 2 h/day were significantly more likely than children who watched television for ≤ 2 h/day to: to have one or more serves/day of high energy drinks (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.31; 95% CI, 1.61–3.32), and to have one or more serves/day of savoury snacks (AOR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.04–2.17). They were also less likely to have two or more serves/day of fruit (AOR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.46–0.74), or to participate in any organised PA (AOR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.34–0.80). Conclusions: Health practitioners in the primary care setting may find that asking whether a child watches television for more than 2 hours daily can be a useful indicator of a child’s risk of poor diet and low physical activity level.

Transitional labour markets : a social investment and risk mitigation strategy for social policy

Drawing on transitional labor market (TLM) theory, this introductory chapter highlights major themes, overviews the contributions to this volume and suggests a future agenda for policy makers. The focus of applied research projects has been the impact of post-modem social transformations on systems of social protection, looking through the lens of the labor market and shifts in household and family structure. The Transitional Labor Market project uses the TLM model as a means of developing new thinking on how flexibility and innovation might be paired with social investment and new forms of social protection. TLM theory emphasizes the importance of institutions and of the links between different institutions which frequently operate as policy silos, rather than integrated systems to buffer risks and support capability and enhance employability. The great advantage of the TLM model is that it draws attention to the right places for strategic reform. It does not offer a standard set of institutions to facilitate transitions however.

Impact of an empowerment-based parent education program on the reduction of youth suicide risk factors

Purpose: To evaluate the impact of parent education groups on youth suicide risk factors. The potential for informal transmission of intervention impacts within school communities was assessed.

Methods: Parent education groups were offered to volunteers from 14 high schools that were closely matched to 14 comparison schools. The professionally led groups aimed to empower parents to assist one another to improve communication skills and relationships with adolescents. Australian 8th-grade students (aged 14 years) responded to classroom surveys repeated at baseline and after 3 months. Logistic regression was used to test for intervention impacts on adolescent substance use, deliquency, self-harm behavior, and depression. There were no differences between the intervention (n = 305) and comparison (n = 272) samples at baseline on the measures of depression, health behavior, or family relationships.

Results: Students in the intervention schools demonstrated increased maternal care (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.9), reductions in conflict with parents (AOR .5), reduced substance use (AOR .5 to .6), and less delinquency (AOR .2). Parent education group participants were more likely to be sole parents and their children reported higher rates of substance use at baseline. Intervention impacts revealed a dose-response with the largest impacts associated with directly participating parents, but significant impacts were also evident for others in the intervention schools. Where best friend dyads were identified, the best friend’s positive family relationships reduced subsequent substance use among respondents. This and other social contagion processes were posited to explain the transfer of positive impacts beyond the minority of directly participating families.

Conclusions: A whole-school parent education intervention demonstrated promising impacts on a range of risk behaviors and protective factors relevant to youth self-harm and suicide.

Understanding the management of doctoral studies in Australia as risk management

This paper discusses and analyses theoretical explanations of risk and risk management in terms of the management of doctoral studies. It deals with the ways in which Government policy, together with contemporary approaches to the bureaucratisation of risk management and the development and imposition of rationalities of risk, are shaping the practices of universities concerning the selection, supervision, support and assessment of doctoral candidates. In particular, the impact of the Research Training Scheme on doctoral studies is discussed as a particular context in which the institutionalisation of risk management occurs.

The conceptualisation of operational risk management models

Operational risk is evolving as a specialist field of risk management that must be practiced within all organisations, but currently has a particular relevance to banks. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has circulated a consultative paper which, if adopted by nation-state bank supervisors, will impose an operational risk capital charge on banks as part of a new Capital Accord. The definition of operational risk is wide-ranging and creates some unique issues related to the development of appropriate risk management models. This paper conceptualises two distinct operational risk management models; being a predictive model that will result in a known outcome upon its implementation, and a pre-emptive operational risk management model which prepares an organisation in the event that a future risk occurrence results in a disruption to critical business operations.

Consumer choice, information product quality, and market implications

The paper concerns with the peculiarities of consumer choice in information product markets. This is a multidisciplinary study based on both information system research and microeconomic theory. An extension is introduced to the conventional general theory of consumer choice for explicitly taking into account the impact of information product quality on consumer behaviour. Multiple quality characteristics, considered against the price of product, are an essential reason for consumer choice of high tech product in general and information product in particular. We assume that consumers are able to aggregate their preferences of multiple product characteristics into a product preference order. On the supply side, the product quality characteristics incur costs. In the case of information product, those costs are the costs of the first copy, and marginal costs are near zero. All of the above constitute the distinctive characteristics of the competitive mechanism in the digital economy and in information product markets. A model, based on the game theory is used to consider two special cases. The first one deals with monopolistic competition for a share of the market with a limited number of customers. Conditions are derived for IT firm survival. The second one considers conditions at which a monopoly is able to successfully introduce a new version if its information product.

Fire fighters' assessments of fireground risk

Fire fighters are often required to work in dynamic and hazardous environments involving a high level of uncertainty. The present study investigated 110 volunteer fire fighters’ assessments of levels of risk associated with a photographic depiction of a typical grassland fire situation. The fire fighters used a standard fire agency risk-rating matrix procedure requiring them to specify the severity of the hazards depicted and the probability of a mishap in order to rate overall level of risk (1 = Low; 4 = Extreme). The risk ratings made by the fire fighters varied greatly. The overall rate of agreement with the risk level rating of the situation made by a panel of expert fire officers (=1, Low) was only 27%. It seems that use of a standard risk-rating matrix procedure by fire fighters at incidents, as recommended currently by many fire agencies, is likely to result in unreliable risk assessments, at least in the absence of effective training in the risk assessment procedure. The 110 volunteers were also asked to identify the total number of potential hazards apparent in five photographs depicting different kinds of emergency incidents. Identifying more hazards was found to be associated with (a) previous personal experience of a ‘near-miss’; and (b) higher levels of education. The findings imply that when faced with identical fire ground situations, individual fire fighters are likely to differ in their situational awareness of hazards and consequent risk assessments.

The conceptualisation of operational risk management models

Operational risk is evolving as a specialist field of risk management that must be practiced within all organisations, but currently has a particular relevance to banks. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has circulated a consultative paper which, if adopted by nation-state bank supervisors, will impose an operational risk capital charge on banks as part of a new Capital Accord. The definition of operational risk is wide-ranging and creates some unique issues related to the development of appropriate risk management models. This paper conceptualises two distinct operational risk management models; being a predictive model that will result in a known outcome upon its implementation, and a pre-emptive operational risk management model which prepares an organisation in the event that a future risk occurrence results in a disruption to critical business operations.

Pathway planning and 'becoming somebody' : Exploring the tensions between wellbeing and credentialism with students at (educational) risk

This paper maps the policy shifts around the education and training of youth that frame how schools respond to issues of youth' at risk'. These shifts have occurred with the move from the self managing schools marked by market discourses of competition, autonomy and image management that supplanted earlier discourses of welfare and community, through to recent policies in Victoria arising from the Kirby Review of Post compulsory Education and Public Education, the Next Generation undertaken by the Labor government. These reports, and the policies emerging out of them, are producing new discourses about youth and schooling focusing on wellbeing, learning networks and more systemic support for schools at the same time as there is increased accountability and expectations of schools. Drawing on the school exclusion literature from the U.K, and using Bourdieu's notion of habitus, we examine the findings from a recent study undertaken on the Geelong Pathways Planning project, funded through a Victorian government strategy, to discuss how schools respond to such initiatives. The project explored the ways in which students in the Geelong region understood and worked with the job planning pathways program, and how service providers (schools, community education facilities, job networks etc) coordinated to meet the needs of individual youth. There was a disjuncture in the participating schools between the discourses of care and welfare for students at risk, and the actual practices and policies that ignored or excluded such students. This paper concludes with a discussion of what might be required systemically, in schools and in their relations to other education providers, to build the capacity to respond more effectively to all students.

Non-smooth optimization methods for computation of the conditional value-at-risk and portfolio optimization

We examine numerical performance of various methods of calculation of the Conditional Value-at-risk (CVaR), and portfolio optimization with respect to this risk measure. We concentrate on the method proposed by Rockafellar and Uryasev in (Rockafellar, R.T. and Uryasev, S., 2000, Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk, 2, 21-41), which converts this problem to that of convex optimization. We compare the use of linear programming techniques against a non-smooth optimization method of the discrete gradient, and establish the supremacy of the latter. We show that non-smooth optimization can be used efficiently for large portfolio optimization, and also examine parallel execution of this method on computer clusters.

Bio-economical and ethical impacts of alien finfish culture in European inland waters

Since 1989, and in comparison to the global trend, inland aquaculture production of European finfish has declined. To date, the yearly European freshwater aquaculture production is 371,727 tons, valued at over US$1 billion. Indigenous species accounted for less than one-third of the production, whereas alien species (a species that has been moved beyond its natural range of distribution) accounts for the remainder. However, in general, indigenous species command a higher market price. Currently, food quality and food safety are leading concerns of consumers, and European consumers are also becoming alert to environmentally detrimental practices. Therefore, to aim at economic sustainability, the sector needs to satisfy consumer expectations of environmentally friendly practices. It is believed that farming alien finfish species can threaten local biodiversity through escapes, and this represents a current environmental concern relative to aquaculture. In this context, an attempt is made in this paper to understand and quantify the impacts of alien finfish cultivation in European inland waters, and to suggest remedial measures.

Deterministic versus stochastic quantitative microbial Risk Assessment models for wastewater irrigation of food crops

Reuse of wastewater to irrigate food crops is being practiced in many parts of the world and is becoming more commonplace as the competition for, and stresses on, freshwater resources intensify. But there are risks associated with wastewater irrigation, including the possibility of transmission of pathogens causing infectious disease, to both workers in the field and to consumers buying and eating produce irrigated with wastewater. To manage these risks appropriately we need objective and quantitative estimates of them. This is typically achieved through one of two modelling approaches: deterministic or stochastic. Each parameter in a deterministic model is represented by a single value, whereas in stochastic models probability functions are used. Stochastic models are theoretically superior because they account for variability and uncertainty, but they are computationally demanding and not readily accessible to water resource and public health managers. We constructed models to estimate risk of enteric virus infection arising from the consumption of wastewater-irrigated horticultural crops (broccoli, cucumber and lettuce), and compared the resultant levels of risk between the deterministic and stochastic approaches. Several scenarios were tested for each crop, accounting for different concentrations of enteric viruses and different lengths of environmental exposure (i.e. the time between the last irrigation event and harvest, when the viruses are liable to decay or inactivation). In most situations modelled the two approaches yielded similar estimates of risk (within 1 order-of-magnitude). The two methods diverged most markedly, up to around 2 orders-of-magnitude, when there was large uncertainty associated with the estimate of virus concentration and the exposure period was short (1 day). Therefore, in some circumstances deterministic modelling may offer water resource managers a pragmatic alternative to stochastic modelling, but its usefulness as a surrogate will depend upon the level of uncertainty in the model parameters.

Longitudinal study of Consumer Price Index (CPI) trends in core and non-core foods in Australia

Objective: This study examined trends in the price of healthy and less-healthy foods from 1989 to 2007 using the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Methods: CPI food expenditure classes were classified as 'core' or 'non-core'. Trends in the CPI were analysed to examine the rise in prices of core compared with non-core foods.

Results: On average, the CPI for core foods has risen at a slightly higher, though not statistically significant, rate than non-core foods. Furthermore, selected groupings reveal interesting patterns. 'Bread' has risen in price significantly more than 'cakes and biscuits', and 'milk' has risen in price significantly more than 'soft drinks, waters and juices'.

Conclusions and implications: This investigation of food price trends reveals notable differences between core and non-core foods. This should be investigated further to determine the extent to which this contributes to the higher prevalence of diet-related diseases in low socio-economic groups.

Sustainable property - the future of the New Zealand market

The New Zealand property industry has recently been introduced to the concept of sustainability. Even though targeted measures have been taken by the New Zealand Green Building Council and government, there is considerable hesitation and scepticism existing in the property market from both an investor’s and a building owner’s perspective. This paper discusses the results of an investigation into market perception of sustainable buildings from the investment community in New Zealand. Property investors from New Zealand were surveyed about their perception of sustainable buildings in New Zealand and their actions with regards to their own commercial portfolios, as well as the relationship between sustainability and property investment decisions.

Assessing risk for sexual offenders in New Zealand : development and validation of a computer-scored risk measure

A growing research base supports the predictive validity of actuarial methods of risk assessment with sexual offenders. These methods use clearly defined variables with demonstrated empirical association with re-offending. The advantages of actuarial measures for screening large numbers of offenders quickly and economically are further enhanced when the variables used can be extracted from existing electronic databases. This study reports the results of applying a computerized set of historical variables with a sample of 1,133 male sexual offenders released from prison by the New Zealand Department of Corrections. Area under the curve figures of 0.70-0.78 were obtained over periods of 5 to 15 years, reflecting a significant level of association with sexual recidivism. Detected rates of re-offending across risk levels were comparable to those previously reported for the Static-99. Rates of sexual re-offending by child molesters for all sexual offences and offences against child victims are reported separately.