Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

Coastal environmental gradients – Key to reproduction habitat mapping of freshwater fish in the Baltic Sea

Habitat requirements of fish are most strict during the early life stages, and the quality and quantity of reproduction habitats lays the basis for fish production. A considerable number of fish species in the northern Baltic Sea reproduce in the shallow coastal areas, which are also the most heavily exploited parts of the brackish marine area. However, the coastal fish reproduction habitats in the northern Baltic Sea are poorly known. The studies presented in this thesis focused on the influence of environmental conditions on the distribution of coastal reproduction habitats of freshwater fish. They were conducted in vegetated littoral zone along an exposure and salinity gradient extending from the innermost bays to the outer archipelago on the south-western and southern coasts of Finland, in the northern Baltic Sea. Special emphasis was placed on reed-covered Phragmites australis shores, which form a dominant vegetation type in several coastal archipelago areas. The main aims of this research were to (1) develop and test new survey and mapping methods, (2) investigate the environmental requirements that govern the reproduction of freshwater fish in the coastal area and (3) survey, map and model the distribution of the reproduction habitats of pike (Esox lucius) and roach (Rutilus rutilus). The white plate and scoop method with a standardized sampling time and effort was demonstrated to be a functional method for sampling the early life stages of fish in dense vegetation and shallow water. Reed-covered shores were shown to form especially important reproduction habitats for several freshwater fish species, such as pike, roach, other cyprinids and burbot, in the northern Baltic Sea. The reproduction habitats of pike were limited to sheltered reed- and moss-covered shores of the inner and middle archipelago, where suitable zooplankton prey were available and the influence of the open sea was low. The reproduction habitats of roach were even more limited and roach reproduction was successful only in the very sheltered reed-covered shores of the innermost bay areas, where salinity remained low (< 4‰) during the spawning season due to freshwater inflow. After identifying the critical factors restricting the reproduction of pike and roach, the spatial distribution of their reproduction habitats was successfully mapped and modelled along the environmental gradients using only a few environmental predictor variables. Reproduction habitat maps are a valuable tool promoting the sustainable use and management of exploited coastal areas and helping to maintain the sustainability of fish populations. However, the large environmental gradients and the extensiveness of the archipelago zone in the northern Baltic Sea demand an especially high spatial resolution of the coastal predictor variables. Therefore, the current lack of accurate large-scale, high-resolution spatial data gathered at exactly the right time is a considerable limitation for predictive modelling of shallow coastal waters.

Ecological communities in variable environments : dynamics and diversity under coloured environmental stochasticity

While environmental variation is an ubiquitous phenomenon in the natural world which has for long been appreciated by the scientific community recent changes in global climatic conditions have begun to raise consciousness about the economical, political and sociological ramifications of global climate change. Climate warming has already resulted in documented changes in ecosystem functioning, with direct repercussions on ecosystem services. While predicting the influence of ecosystem changes on vital ecosystem services can be extremely difficult, knowledge of the organisation of ecological interactions within natural communities can help us better understand climate driven changes in ecosystems. The role of environmental variation as an agent mediating population extinctions is likely to become increasingly important in the future. In previous studies population extinction risk in stochastic environmental conditions has been tied to an interaction between population density dependence and the temporal autocorrelation of environmental fluctuations. When populations interact with each other, forming ecological communities, the response of such species assemblages to environmental stochasticity can depend, e.g., on trophic structure in the food web and the similarity in species-specific responses to environmental conditions. The results presented in this thesis indicate that variation in the correlation structure between species-specific environmental responses (environmental correlation) can have important qualitative and quantitative effects on community persistence and biomass stability in autocorrelated (coloured) environments. In addition, reddened environmental stochasticity and ecological drift processes (such as demographic stochasticity and dispersal limitation) have important implications for patterns in species relative abundances and community dynamics over time and space. Our understanding of patterns in biodiversity at local and global scale can be enhanced by considering the relevance of different drift processes for community organisation and dynamics. Although the results laid out in this thesis are based on mathematical simulation models, they can be valuable in planning effective empirical studies as well as in interpreting existing empirical results. Most of the metrics considered here are directly applicable to empirical data.

Environmental factors and uncertainty in fisheries management in the northern Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is a geologically young, large brackish water basin, and few of the species living there have fully adapted to its special conditions. Many of the species live on the edge of their distribution range in terms of one or more environmental variables such as salinity or temperature. Environmental fluctuations are know to cause fluctuations in populations abundance, and this effect is especially strong near the edges of the distribution range, where even small changes in an environmental variable can be critical to the success of a species. This thesis examines which environmental factors are the most important in relation to the success of various commercially exploited fish species in the northern Baltic Sea. It also examines the uncertainties related to fish stocks current and potential status as well as to their relationship with their environment. The aim is to quantify the uncertainties related to fisheries and environmental management, to find potential management strategies that can be used to reduce uncertainty in management results and to develop methodology related to uncertainty estimation in natural resources management. Bayesian statistical methods are utilized due to their ability to treat uncertainty explicitly in all parts of the statistical model. The results show that uncertainty about important parameters of even the most intensively studied fish species such as salmon (Salmo salar L.) and Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras L.) is large. On the other hand, management approaches that reduce uncertainty can be found. These include utilising information about ecological similarity of fish stocks and species, and using management variables that are directly related to stock parameters that can be measured easily and without extrapolations or assumptions.

Transfunctional living walls-designing living walls for environmental and social benefits

Greater attention is being directed towards incorporating greenery into the built environment as increasing global urbanisation drives the search for sustainable urbanism. This research takes a parametric approach to studying living wall dynamics using three methods to cover a diversity of design parameters and performance criteria. The findings led to a functional typology for living walls based on a range of design, context and performance parameters wider than previously identified. Such parametric studies offer valuable insights into 'transfunctional' living walls for homes, schools and public spaces.

Ozone-induced signaling in Arabidopsis thaliana

Tropospheric ozone (O3) is one of the most common air pollutants in industrialized countries, and an increasing problem in rapidly industrialising and developing countries in Asia, Africa and South America. Elevated concentrations of tropospheric O3 can lead to decrease in photosynthesis rate and therefore affect the normal metabolism, growth and seed production. Acute and high O3 episodes can lead to extensive damage leading to dead tissue in plants. Thus, O3 derived growth defects can lead to reduction in crop yield thereby leading to economical losses. Despite the extensive research on this area, many questions remain open on how these processes are controlled. In this study, the stress-induced signaling routes and the components involved were elucidated in more detail starting from visual damage to changes in gene expression, signaling routes and plant hormone interactions that are involved in O3-induced cell death. In order to elucidate O3-induced responses in Arabidopsis, mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling was studied using different hormonal signaling mutants. MAPKs were activated at the beginning of the O3 exposure. The activity of MAPKs, which were identified as AtMPK3 and AtMPK6, reached the maximum at 1 and 2 hours after the start of the exposure, respectively. The activity decreased back to clean air levels at 8 hours after the start of the exposure. Both AtMPK3 and AtMPK6 were translocated to nucleus at the beginning of the O3 exposure where they most likely affect gene expression. Differences were seen between different hormonal signaling mutants. Functional SA signaling was shown to be needed for the full protein levels and activation of AtMPK3. In addition, AtMPK3 and AtMPK6 activation was not dependent on ethylene signaling. Finally, jasmonic acid was also shown to have an impact on AtMPK3 protein levels and AtMPK3 activity. To further study O3-induced cell death, an earlier isolated O3 sensitive Arabidopsis mutant rcd1 was mapped, cloned and further characterized. RCD1 was shown to encode a gene with WWE and ADP-ribosylation domains known to be involved in protein-protein interactions and cell signaling. rcd1 was shown to be involved in many processes including hormonal signaling and regulation of stress-responsive genes. rcd1 is sensitive against O3 and apoplastic superoxide, but tolerant against paraquat that produces superoxide in chloroplast. rcd1 is also partially insensitive to glucose and has alterations in hormone responses. These alterations are seen as ABA insensitivity, reduced jasmonic acid sensitivity and reduced ethylene sensitivity. All these features suggest that RCD1 acts as an integrative node in hormonal signaling and it is involved in the hormonal regulation of several specific stress-responsive genes. Further studies with the rcd1 mutant showed that it exhibits the classical features of programmed cell death, PCD, in response to O3. These include nuclear shrinkage, chromatin condensation, nuclear DNA degradation, cytosol vesiculation and accumulation of phenolic compounds and eventually patches of HR-like lesions. rcd1 was found to produce extensive amount of salicylic acid and jasmonic acid in response to O3. Double mutant studies showed that SA independent and dependent processes were involved in the O3-induced PCD in rcd1 and that increased sensitivity against JA led to increased sensitivity against O3. Furthermore, rcd1 had alterations in MAPK signature that resembled changes that were previously seen in mutants defective in SA and JA signaling. Nitric oxide accumulation and its impact on O3-induced cell death were also studied. Transient accumulation of NO was seen at the beginning of the O3 exposure, and during late time points, NO accumulation coincided with the HR-like lesions. NO was shown to modify defense gene expression, such as, SA and ethylene biosynthetic genes. Furthermore, rcd1 was shown to produce more NO in control conditions. In conclusion, NO was shown to be involved in O3-induced signaling leading to attenuation of SA biosynthesis and other defense related genes.

Plasmids and aromatic degradation in Sphingomonas for bioremediation : Aromatic ring cleavage genes in soil and rhizosphere

Microbial degradation pathways play a key role in the detoxification and the mineralization of polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), which are widespread pollutants in soil and constituents of petroleum hydrocarbons. In microbiology the aromatic degradation pathways are traditionally studied from single bacterial strains with capacity to degrade certain pollutant. In soil the degradation of aromatics is performed by a diverse community of micro-organisms. The aim of this thesis was to study biodegradation on different levels starting from a versatile aromatic degrader Sphingobium sp. HV3 and its megaplasmid, extending to revelation of diversity of key catabolic enzymes in the environment and finally studying birch rhizoremediation in PAH-polluted soil. To understand biodegradation of aromatics on bacterial species level, the aromatic degradation capacity of Sphingobium sp. HV3 and the role of the plasmid pSKY4, was studied. Toluene, m-xylene, biphenyl, fluorene, phenanthrene were detected as carbon and energy sources of the HV3 strain. Tn5 transposon mutagenesis linked the degradation capacity of toluene, m-xylene, biphenyl and naphthalene to the pSKY4 plasmid and qPCR expression analysis showed that plasmid extradiol dioxygenases genes (bphC and xylE) are inducted by phenanthrene, m-xylene and biphenyl whereas the 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid herbicide induced the chlorocatechol 1,2-dioxygenase gene (tfdC) from the ortho-pathway. A method to study upper meta-pathway extradiol dioxygenase gene diversity in soil was developed. The extradiol dioxygenases catalyse cleavage of the aromatic ring between a hydroxylated carbon and an adjacent non-hydroxylated carbon (meta-cleavage). A high diversity of extradiol dioxygenases were detected from polluted soils. The detected extradiol dioxygenases showed sequence similarity to known catabolic genes of Alpha-, Beta-, and Gammaproteobacteria. Five groups of extradiol dioxygenases contained sequences with no close homologues in the database, representing novel genes. In rhizoremediation experiment with birch (Betula pendula) treatment specific changes of extradiol dioxygenase communities were shown. PAH pollution changed the bulk soil extradiol dioxygenase community structure and birch rhizosphere contained a more diverse extradiol dioxygenase community than the bulk soil showing a rhizosphere effect. The degradation of pyrene in soil was enhanced with birch seedlings compared to soil without birch. The complete 280,923 kb nucleotide sequence of pSKY4 plasmid was determined. The open reading frames of pSKY4 were divided into putative conjugative transfer, aromatic degradation, replication/maintaining and transposition/integration function-encoding proteins. Aromatic degradation orfs shared high similarity to corresponding genes in pNL1, a plasmid from the deep subsurface strain Novosphingobium aromaticivorans F199. The plasmid backbones were considerably more divergent with lower similarity, which suggests that the aromatic pathway has functioned as a plasmid independent mobile genetic element. The functional diversity of microbial communities in soil is still largely unknown. Several novel clusters of extradiol dioxygenases representing catabolic bacteria, whose function, biodegradation pathways and phylogenetic position is not known were amplified with single primer pair from polluted soils. These extradiol dioxygenase communities were shown to change upon PAH pollution, which indicates that their hosts function in PAH biodegradation in soil. Although the degradation pathways of specific bacterial species are substantially better depicted than pathways in situ, the evolution of degradation pathways for the xenobiotic compounds is largely unknown. The pSKY4 plasmid contains aromatic degradation genes in putative mobile genetic element causing flexibility/instability to the pathway. The localisation of the aromatic biodegradation pathway in mobile genetic elements suggests that gene transfer and rearrangements are a competetive advantage for Sphingomonas bacteria in the environment.

Carabid beetles (Coleoptera, Carabidae) as indicators of environmental change in Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar

Growing human populations and increasing exploitation of natural resources threaten nature all over the world. Tropical countries are especially vulnerable to human impact because of the high number of species, most of these endemic and still unknown. Madagascar is one of the centers of high biodiversity and renowned for its unique species. However, during the last centuries many endemic species have gone extinct and more are endangered. Because of high natural values, Madagascar is one of the global conservation priorities. The establishment of Ranomafana National Park (RNP) was intended to preserve the unique nature of Madagascar. Containing several endemic and threatened species, Ranomafana has been selected as one of UNESCO’s World Natural Heritage sites. However, due to strong human pressures the region immediately surroundings the protected area has severely degraded. Aims of this thesis were to inventory carabid fauna in RNP and evaluate their use as indicators of the environmental change. Carabid beetles were collected from protected area (secondary and primary forests) and from its degraded surrounding area. Collecting was mostly conducted by hand during years 2000-2005. Species compositions between the protected area and its surroundings were compared, and species habitat preferences and seasonal variations were studied. In total, 4498 individuals representing 127 carabid species (of which 38 are new species) were collected. Species compositions within and outside of the protected area were markedly different. Most of the species preferred forest as their primary habitat and were mainly collected from trees and bushes. Their value as indicators is based on their different habitat requirements and sensitivity to environmental variables. Some of the species were found only in the protected forest, some occupied also the degraded forests and some preferred open areas. Carabid fauna is very species rich in Ranomafana and there are still many species to be found. Most of the species are arboreal and probably cannot survive in the deforested areas outside the park. This is very likely also the case for other species. Establishment and continued protection of RNP is probably the only way to conserve this globally important area. However, new occupations and land use methods are urgently needed by the local people for improving their own lives while maintaining the forest intact.

LbL Fabricated Poly(Styrene Sulfonate)/TiO2 Multilayer Thin Films for Environmental Applications

Fabrication of multilayer ultrathin composite films composed of nanosized titanium dioxide particles (P25, Degussa) and polyelectrolytes (PELs), such as poly(allyl amine hydrochloride) (PAH) and poly(styrene sulfonate sodium salt) (PSS), on glass substrates using the layer-by-layer (LbL) assembly technique and its potentia application for the photodegradation of rhodamine B under ultraviolet (UV) irradiation has been reported. The polyelectrolytes and TiO2 were deposited on glass substrates at pH 2.5 and the growth of the multilayers was studied using UV/vis speccrophotometer. Thicknes measurements of the films showed a linear increase in film thickness with increase in number of bilayers. The surface microstructure of the thin films was characterized by field emission scanning electron microscope. The ability of the catalysts immobilized by this technique was compared with TiO2 films prepared by drop casting and spin coating methods. Comparison has been made in terms of film stability and photodegradation of rhodamine B. Process variables such as the effect of surface area of the multilayers, umber of bilayers, and initial dye concentration on photodegradation of rhodamine B were studied. Degradation efficiency increased with increase in number of catalysts (total surface area) and bilayers. Kinetics analysis indicated that the photodegradation rates follow first order kinetics. Under maximum loading of TiO2, with five catalyst slides having 20 bilayers of polyelectrolyte/TiO2 on each, 100 mL of 10 mg/L dye solution could be degraded completely in 4 h. The same slides could be reused with the same efficiency for several cycles. This study demonstrates that nanoparticles can be used in wastewater treatment using a simple immobilization technique. This makes the process an attractive option for scale up.

Content-based birdcall retrieval from environmental audio

This research investigates techniques to analyse long duration acoustic recordings to help ecologists monitor birdcall activities. It designs a generalized algorithm to identify a broad range of bird species. It allows ecologists to search for arbitrary birdcalls of interest, rather than restricting them to just a very limited number of species on which the recogniser is trained. The algorithm can help ecologists find sounds of interest more efficiently by filtering out large volumes of unwanted sounds and only focusing on birdcalls.

Social and environmental reporting practices of organisations operating in, or sourcing products from, a developing country : evidence from Bangladesh

This research consists of a broad study in three parts of the social and environmental reporting practices of organisations operating in or sourcing products from a developing country, in this case Bangladesh. The first part of this study explores the social and environmental disclosure practices of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), the body responsible for organising the activities of 4,200 entities involved in the export of garments from Bangladesh. By way of interview, this part documents the opinions of numerous senior executives from the BGMEA with regard to any changes in the degree of social and environmental pressures since 1985. Utilising a complementary theoretical perspective that includes legitimacy theory, stakeholder theory and institutional theory this part then performs an analysis of the BGMEA's annual reports (1987-2005), t o explore the link between the perceived pressures and changes entailed therein and the social and environmental disclosure practices of the BGMEA across the period of analysis. The results show that the disclosure practices of BGMEA appear to be directly driven by the changing expectations of multinational buying companies- the group deemed to be the most powerful stakeholder group. This section is the first known study to interview managers from a large organisation in a developing country about shifting stakeholder expectations and then to link these changing expectations to annual report disclosures across an extended period of analysis. The findings then directly lead to the second major part of this thesis which investigates the social and environmental disclosure practices of two major multinational buying companies: Nike and H&M. Adopting a joint consideration of legitimacy theory and media agenda setting theory, this second part investigates the linkage between negative media attention and positive corporate social and environmental disclosures over a 19 year period. The results support the view that for those industry-related social and environmental issues that attract the greatest amount of negative media attention, these companies react by providing positive social and environmental disclosures. The results were particularly significant in relation to labour practices in developing countries-the issue that attracts the greatest amount of negative media attention for the companies in question. While the second part demonstrates that the media influences particular disclosure practices, the third part of the thesis shows what drives the media. Based on the speculation provided in the second part, the third part tests the proposition that the media is an important ally of NGOs in their quest to influence change in corporate accountabilities. Through the use of interviews, the results of this part of the study provide evidence to support previously untested perspectives about NGOs' utilisation of the m edia. The results reveal that NGOs use the media because the media is responsible for creating real changes in the operations and disclosure policies of organisations sourcing products from Bangladesh. The various pressures impacting the activities of organisations operating in or sourcing products from developing countries constitutes a fascinating area of investigation, and it is hoped that this study will motivate further research in this area.

Protocol for assessing maternal, environmental and epigenetic risk factors for dental caries in children

Background Expenditure on dental and oral health services in Australia is $3.4 billion AUD annually. This is the sixth highest health cost and accounts for 7 % of total national health expenditure. Approximately 49 % of Australian children aged 6 years have caries experience in their deciduous teeth and this is rising. The aetiology of dental caries involves a complex interplay of individual, behavioural, social, economic, political and environmental conditions, and there is increasing interest in genetic predisposition and epigenetic modification. Methods The Oral Health Sub-study; a cross sectional study of a birth cohort began in November 2012 by examining mothers and their children who were six years old by the time of initiation of the study, which is ongoing. Data from detailed questionnaires of families from birth onwards and data on mothers’ knowledge, attitudes and practices towards oral health collected at the time of clinical examination are used. Subjects’ height, weight and mid-waist circumference are taken and Body Mass Index (BMI) computed, using an electronic Bio-Impedance balance. Dental caries experience is scored using the International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS). Saliva is collected for physiological measures. Salivary Deoxyribose Nucleic Acid (DNA) is extracted for genetic studies including epigenetics using the SeqCap Epi Enrichment Kit. Targets of interest are being confirmed by pyrosequencing to identify potential epigenetic markers of caries risk. Discussion This study will examine a wide range of potential determinants for childhood dental caries and evaluate inter-relationships amongst them. The findings will provide an evidence base to plan and implement improved preventive strategies.

Biological and environmental determinants

This chapter describes biological and environmental determinants of the health of Australians, providing a background to the development of successful public health activity. You will recall from the introduction to Section 2 that health determinants are the biomedical, genetic, behavioural, socioeconomic and environmental factors that impact on health and wellbeing. These determinants can be influenced by interventions and by resources and systems (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) AIHW 2012a). Many factors combine to affect the health of individuals and communities. People’s circumstances and the environment determine whether a population is healthy or not. Factors such as where people live, the state of their environment, genetics, their education level and income, and their relationships with friends and family are all likely to impact on their health. The determinants of population health reflect the context of people’s lives; however, people have limited control over many of these determinants (WHO 2007).