HESS Opinions: On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?

Flood forecasting increasingly relies on numerical weather prediction forecasts to achieve longer lead times. One of the key difficulties that is emerging in constructing a decision framework for these flood forecasts is what to dowhen consecutive forecasts are so different that they lead to different conclusions regarding the issuing of warnings or triggering other action. In this opinion paper we explore some of the issues surrounding such forecast inconsistency (also known as "Jumpiness", "Turning points", "Continuity" or number of "Swings"). In thsi opinion paper we define forecast inconsistency; discuss the reasons why forecasts might be inconsistent; how we should analyse inconsistency; and what we should do about it; how we should communicate it and whether it is a totally undesirable property. The property of consistency is increasingly emerging as a hot topic in many forecasting environments.

Segmenting the Italian coffee market: marketing opportunities for economic agents working along the international coffee chain

Globalization, either directly or indirectly (e.g. through structural adjustment reforms), has called for profound changes in the previously existing institutional order. Some changes adversely impacted the production and market environment of many coffee producers in developing countries resulting in more risky and less remunerative coffee transactions. This paper focuses on customization of a tropical commodity, fair-trade coffee, as an approach to mitigating the effects of worsened market conditions for small-scale coffee producers in less developed countries. fair-trade labeling is viewed as a form of “de-commodification” of coffee through product differentiation on ethical grounds. This is significant not only as a solution to the market failure caused by pervasive information asymmetries along the supply chain, but also as a means of revitalizing the agricultural-commodity-based trade of less developed countries (LDCs) that has been languishing under globalization. More specifically, fair-trade is an example of how the same strategy adopted by developed countries’ producers/ processors (i.e. the sequence product differentiation - institutional certification - advertisement) can be used by LDC producers to increase the reputation content of their outputs by transforming them from mere commodities into “decommodified” (i.e. customized and more reputed) goods. The resulting segmentation of the world coffee market makes possible to meet the demand by consumers with preference for this “(ethically) customized” coffee and to transfer a share of the accruing economic rents backward to the Fair-trade coffee producers in LDCs. It should however be stressed that this outcome cannot be taken for granted since investments are needed to promote the required institutional innovations. In Italy FTC is a niche market with very few private brands selling this product. However, an increase of FTC market share could be a big commercial opportunity for farmers in LDCs and other economic agents involved along the international coffee chain. Hence, this research explores consumers’ knowledge of labels promoting quality products, consumption coffee habits, brand loyalty, willingness to pay and market segmentation according to the heterogeneity of preferences for coffee products. The latter was assessed developing a D-efficient design where stimuli refinement was tested during two focus groups.

Seafood safety and quality: an analysis of the supply chain in the Sultanate of Oman

The globalization of trade in fish has created many challenges for the developing world specifically with regard to food safety and quality. International organisations have established a good basis for standards in international trade. Whilst these requirements are frequently embraced by the major importers (such as Japan, the EU and the USA), they often impose additional safety requirements and regularly identify batches which fail to meet their strict standards. Creating an effective national seafood control system which meets both the internal national needs as well the requirements for the export market can be challenging. Many countries adopt a dual system where seafood products for the major export markets are subject to tight control whilst the majority of the products (whether for the local market or for more regional trade) are less tightly controlled. With regional liberalization also occurring, deciding on appropriate controls is complex. In the Sultanate of Oman, fisheries production is one of the countries' chief sources of economic revenue after oil production and is a major source of the national food supply. In this paper the structure of the fish supply chain has been analysed and highlighted the different routes operating for the different markets. Although much of the fish are consumed within Oman, there is a major export trade to the local regional markets. Much smaller quantities meet the more stringent standards imposed by the major importing countries and exports to these are limited. The paper has considered the development of the Omani fish control system including the key legislative documents and the administrative structures that have been developed. Establishing modern controls which satisfy the demands of the major importers is possible but places additional costs on businesses. Enhanced controls such as HACCP and other management standards are required but can be difficult to justify when alternative markets do not specify these. These enhanced controls do however provide additional consumer protection and can bring benefits to local consumers. The Omani government is attempting to upgrade the system of controls and has made tremendous progress toward the implementation of HACCP and introducing enhanced management systems into its industrial sector. The existence of strengthened legislative and government support, including subsidies, has encouraged some businesses to implement HACCP. The current control systems have been reviewed and a SWOT analysis approach used to identify key factors for their future development. The study shows that seafood products in the supply chain are often exposed to lengthy handling and distribution process before reaching the consumers, a typical issue faced by many developing countries. As seafood products are often perishable, they safety is compromised if not adequately controlled. The enforcement of current food safety laws in the Sultanate of Oman is shared across various government agencies. Consequently, there is a need to harmonize all regulatory requirements, enhancing the domestic food protection and to continue to work towards a fully risk-based approach in order to compete successfully in the global market.

Factors affecting the concentration in seven-spotted ladybirds (Coccinella septempunctata L.) of Cd and Zn transferred through the food chain

The transfer of Cd and Zn from soils amended with sewage sludge was followed through a food chain consisting of wheat, aphids and the predator Coccinella septempunctata. Multiple regression models were generated to predict the concentrations of Cd and Zn in C. septempunctata. No significant model could be generated for Cd, indicting that the concentration of this metal was maintained within relatively narrow limits. A model predicting 64% of the variability in the Zn concentration of C. septempunctata was generated from of the concentration of Zn in the diet, time and rate of Zn consumption. The results suggest that decreasing the rate of food consumption is an effective mechanism to prevent the accumulation of Zn and that the availability of Zn in the aphid prey increased with the concentration in the aphids. The results emphasise the importance of using ecologically relevant food chains and exposure pathways during ecotoxicological studies.

Molecular design of a discrete chain-folding polyimide for controlled inkjet deposition of supramolecular polymers

A supramolecular polymer based upon two complementary polymer components is formed by sequential deposition from solution in THF, using a piezoelectric drop-on-demand inkjet printer. Highly efficient cycloaddition or ‘click’ chemistry afforded a well-defined poly(ethylene glycol) featuring chain-folding diimide end groups, which possesses greatly enhanced solubility in THF relative to earlier materials featuring random diimide sequences. Blending the new polyimide with a complementary poly(ethylene glycol) system bearing pyrene end groups (which bind to the chain-folding diimide units) overcomes the limited solubility encountered previously with chain-folding polyimides in inkjet printing applications. The solution state properties of the resulting polymer blend were assessed via viscometry to confirm the presence of a supramolecular polymer before depositing the two electronically complementary polymers by inkjet printing techniques. The novel materials so produced offer an insight into ways of controlling the properties of printed materials through tuning the structure of the polymer at the (supra)molecular level.

Globular adiponectin induces platelet activation through the collagen receptor GPVI-Fc receptor gamma chain complex.

We identify gAd as a novel ligand for GPVI that stimulates tyrosine kinase-dependent platelet aggregation. Our data raise the possibility that gAd may promote unwanted platelet activation at sites of vascular injury.

Interaction between BMI and APOE genotype is associated with changes in the plasma long-chain-PUFA response to a fish-oil supplement in healthy participants

BACKGROUND: Carriers of the apolipoprotein E ɛ4 (APOE4) allele are lower responders to a docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) supplement than are noncarriers. This effect could be exacerbated in overweight individuals because DHA metabolism changes according to body mass index (BMI; in kg/m²). OBJECTIVES: We evaluated the plasma fatty acid (FA) response to a DHA-rich supplement in APOE4 carriers and noncarriers consuming a high-saturated fat diet (HSF diet) and, in addition, evaluated whether being overweight changed this response. DESIGN: This study was part of the SATgenɛ trial. Forty-one APOE4 carriers and 41 noncarriers were prospectively recruited and consumed an HSF diet for 8-wk followed by 8 wk of consumption of an HSF diet with the addition of DHA and eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) (HSF + DHA diet; 3.45 g DHA/d and 0.5 g EPA/d). Fasting plasma samples were collected at the end of each intervention diet. Plasma total lipids (TLs) were separated into free FAs, neutral lipids (NLs), and phospholipids by using solid-phase extraction, and FA profiles in each lipid class were quantified by using gas chromatography. RESULTS: Because the plasma FA response to the HSF + DHA diet was correlated with BMI in APOE4 carriers but not in noncarriers, the following 2 groups were formed according to the BMI median: low BMI (<25.5) and high BMI (≥25.5). In response to the HSF + DHA diet, there were significant BMI × genotype interactions for changes in plasma concentrations of arachidonic acid and DHA in phospholipids and TLs and of EPA in NLs and TLs (P ≤ 0.05). APOE4 carriers were lower plasma responders to the DHA supplement than were noncarriers but only in the high-BMI group. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that apolipoprotein E genotype and BMI may be important variables that determine the plasma long-chain PUFA response to dietary fat manipulation. APOE4 carriers with BMI ≥25.5 may need higher intakes of DHA for cardiovascular or other health benefits than do noncarriers

Large deviations of Rouse polymer chain: first passage problem

The purpose of this paper is to investigate several analytical methods of solving first passage (FP) problem for the Rouse model, a simplest model of a polymer chain. We show that this problem has to be treated as a multi-dimensional Kramers' problem, which presents rich and unexpected behavior. We first perform direct and forward-flux sampling (FFS) simulations, and measure the mean first-passage time $\tau(z)$ for the free end to reach a certain distance $z$ away from the origin. The results show that the mean FP time is getting faster if the Rouse chain is represented by more beads. Two scaling regimes of $\tau(z)$ are observed, with transition between them varying as a function of chain length. We use these simulations results to test two theoretical approaches. One is a well known asymptotic theory valid in the limit of zero temperature. We show that this limit corresponds to fully extended chain when each chain segment is stretched, which is not particularly realistic. A new theory based on the well known Freidlin-Wentzell theory is proposed, where dynamics is projected onto the minimal action path. The new theory predicts both scaling regimes correctly, but fails to get the correct numerical prefactor in the first regime. Combining our theory with the FFS simulations lead us to a simple analytical expression valid for all extensions and chain lengths. One of the applications of polymer FP problem occurs in the context of branched polymer rheology. In this paper, we consider the arm-retraction mechanism in the tube model, which maps exactly on the model we have solved. The results are compared to the Milner-McLeish theory without constraint release, which is found to overestimate FP time by a factor of 10 or more.

Second-life retailing: a reverse supply chain perspective

Purpose – The authors examine the role of entrepreneurial business models in the reverse supply chain of apparel/fashion retailers. The purpose of this paper is to offer an alternative approach to the “return to the point of origin” prevalent in the reverse chain of manufacturers but less technically and economically feasible in the case of apparel/fashion retailers. This approach, second-life retailing, not only reduces waste but also democratises consumption. Design/methodology/approach – The paper is based on an extensive literature review, semi-structured interviews with managers of two second-life retailers in Malaysia and observations of a number of stores. Findings – Using the Business Model Canvas, the authors demonstrate the essential characteristics of second-life retailers. Retailers in this study, unlike retailers in the developed world, combine traditional business models with off-price retailing. There is no clear demarcation between the forward and reverse supply chain used to manage first- and second-hand retailing. Practical implications – The paper demonstrates the potential of innovative business models in the reverse supply chain. It encourages managers to look beyond the “return to the point of origin” and seek imaginative alternatives. Such alternatives potentially could result in additional revenue, enhanced sustainability and democratisation of consumption meeting triple bottom line objectives. Originality/value – This paper highlights the importance and relevance of entrepreneurial business models in addressing the reverse supply chain, demonstrating this with the aid of two Malaysian off-price retailers. It also contributes to our nascent knowledge by focusing on emerging markets.

One-step reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction for the diagnosis of respiratory syncytial virus in children

Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is the main cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections in infants and children. Rapid diagnosis is required to permit appropriate care and treatment and to avoid unnecessary antibiotic use. Reverse transcriptase (RT-PCR) and indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA) methods have been considered important tools for virus detection due to their high sensitivity and specificity. In order to maximize use-simplicity and minimize the risk of sample cross-contamination inherent in two-step techniques, a RT-PCR method using only a single tube to detect HRSV in clinical samples was developed. Nasopharyngeal aspirates from 226 patients with acute respiratory illness, ranging from infants to 5 years old, were collected at the University Hospital of the University of Sao Paulo (HU-USP), and tested using IFA, one-step RT-PCR, and semi-nested RT-PCR. One hundred and two (45.1%) samples were positive by at least one of the three methods, and 75 (33.2%) were positive by all methods: 92 (40.7%) were positive by one-step RT-PCR, 84 (37.2%) by IFA, and 96 (42.5%) by the semi-nested RT-PCR technique. One-step RT-PCR was shown to be fast, sensitive, and specific for RSV diagnosis, without the added inconvenience and risk of false positive results associated with semi-nested PCR. The combined use of these two methods enhances HRSV detection. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

MITOCHONDRIAL RESPIRATORY CHAIN AND CREATINE KINASE ACTIVITIES IN mdx MOUSE BRAIN

In this study we investigated energy metabolism in the mdx mouse brain. To this end, prefrontal cortex, cerebellum, hippocampus, striatum, and cortex were analyzed. There was a decrease in Complex I but not in Complex 11 activity in all structures. There was an increase in Complex III activity in striatum and a decrease in Complex IV activity in prefrontal cortex and striatum. Mitochondrial creatine kinase activity was increased in hippocampus, prefrontal cortex, cortex, and striatum. Our results indicate that there is energy metabolism dysfunction in the mdx mouse brain. Muscle Nerve 41: 257-260, 2010

Effects of short chain fatty acids on effector mechanisms of neutrophils

Short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) are metabolic by products of anerobic bacteria fermentation. These fatty acids, despite being an important fuel for colonocytes, are also modulators of leukocyte function. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of SCFAs (acetate, propionate, and butyrate) on function of neutrophils, and the possible mechanisms involved. Neutrophils obtained from rats by intraperitoneal lavage 4 h after injection of oyster glycogen solution (1%) were treated with non toxic concentrations of the fatty acids. After that, the following measurements were performed: phagocytosis and destruction of Candida albicans, production of ROS (O(2)(center dot-), H(2)O(2), and HOCl) and degranulation. Gene expression (p47(phox) and p22(phox)) and protein phosphorylation (p47(phox)) were analyzed by real time reverse transcriptase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and Western blotting, respectively. Butyrate inhibited phagocytosis and killing of C. albicans. This SCFA also had an inhibitory effect on production of O(2)(center dot-), H(2)O(2), and HOCI by neutrophils stimulated with PMA or fMLP. This effect of butyrate was not caused by modulation of expression of NADPH oxidase subunits (p47(phox) and p22(phox)) but it was in part due to reduced levels of p47(phox) phosphorylation and an increase in the concentration of cyclic AMP. Acetate increased the production of O(2)(center dot-) and H(2)O(2), in the absence of stimuli but had no effect on phagocytosis and killing of C. albicans. Propionate had no effect on the parameters studied. These results suggest that butyrate can modulate neutrophil function, and thus could be important in inflammatory neutrophil-associated diseases. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Palmitate increases superoxide production through mitochondrial electron transport chain and NADPH oxidase activity in skeletal muscle cells

The effect of unbound palmitic acid (PA) at plasma physiological concentration range on reactive oxygen species (ROS) production by cultured rat skeletal muscle cells was investigated. The participation of the main sites of ROS production was also examined. Production of ROS was evaluated by cytochrome c reduction and dihydroethidium oxidation assays. PA increased ROS production after 1 h incubation. A xanthine oxidase inhibitor did not change PA-induced ROS production. However, the treatment with a mitochondrial uncoupler and mitochondrial complex III inhibitor decreased superoxide production induced by PA. The importance of mitochondria was also evaluated in 1 h incubated rat soleus and extensor digitorum longus (EDL) muscles. Soleus muscle, which has a greater number of mitochondria than EDL, showed a higher superoxide production induced by PA. These results indicate that mitochondrial electron transport chain is an important contributor for superoxide formation induced by PA in skeletal muscle. Results obtained with etomoxir and bromopalmitate treatment indicate that PA has to be oxidized to raise ROS production. A partial inhibition of superoxide formation induced by PA was observed by treatment with diphenylene iodonium, an inhibitor of NADPH oxidase. The participation of this enzyme complex was confirmed through an increase of p47(phox) phosphorylation after treatment with PA.

Suppressive effect of short-chain fatty acids on production of proinflammatory mediators by neutrophils

Short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) are fermentation products of anaerobic bacteria. More than just being an important energy source for intestinal epithelial cells, these compounds are modulators of leukocyte function and potential targets for the development of new drugs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of SCFAs (acetate, propionate and butyrate) on production of nitric oxide (NO) and proinflammatory cytokines [tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) and cytokine-induced neutrophil chemoattractant-2 (CINC-2 alpha beta)] by rat neutrophils. The involvement of nuclear factor kappa B (NF-kappa B) and histone deacetylase (HDAC) was examined. The effect of butyrate was also investigated in vivo after oral administration of tributyrin (a pro-drug of butyrate). Propionate and butyrate diminished TNF-alpha, CINC-2 alpha beta and NO production by LPS-stimulated neutrophils. We also observed that these fatty acids inhibit HDAC activity and NF-kappa B activation, which might be involved in the attenuation of the LPS response. Products of cyclooxygenase and 5-lipoxygenase are not involved in the effects of SCFAs as indicated by the results obtained with the inhibitors of these enzymes. The recruitment of neutrophils to the peritonium after intraperitoneal administration of a glycogen solution (1%) and the ex vivo production of cytokines and NO by neutrophils were attenuated in rats that previously received tributyrin. These results argue that this triglyceride may be effective in the treatment of inflammatory conditions. Crown Copyright (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of medium/omega-6 long chain triglyceride-based emulsion on leucocyte death and inflammatory gene expression

Lipid emulsion (LE) containing medium/omega-6 long chain triglyceride-based emulsion (MCT/omega-6 LCT LE) has been recommended in the place of omega-6 LCT-based emulsion to prevent impairment of immune function. The impact of MCT/omega-6 LCT LE on lymphocyte and neutrophil death and expression of genes related to inflammation was investigated. Seven volunteers were recruited and infusion of MCT/omega-6 LCT LE was performed for 6 h. Four volunteers received saline and no change was found. Blood samples were collected before, immediately afterwards and 18 h after LE infusion. Lymphocytes and neutrophils were studied immediately after isolation and after 24 and 48 h in culture. The following determinations were carried out: plasma-free fatty acids, triacylglycerol and cholesterol concentrations, plasma fatty acid composition, neutral lipid accumulation in lymphocytes and neutrophils, signs of lymphocyte and neutrophil death and lymphocyte expression of genes related to inflammation. MCT/omega-6 LCT LE induced lymphocyte and neutrophil death. The mechanism for MCT/omega-6 LCT LE-dependent induction of leucocyte death may involve changes in neutral lipid content and modulation of expression of genes related to cell death, proteolysis, cell signalling, inflammatory response, oxidative stress and transcription.