Metodologías de valoración de empresas

La valoración de una empresa como sistema dinámico es bastante compleja, los diferentes modelos o métodos de valoración son una aproximación teórica y por consiguiente simplificadora de la realidad. Dichos modelos, se aproximan mediante supuestos o premisas estadísticas que nos permiten hacer dicha simplificación, ejemplos de estos, son el comportamiento del inversionista o la eficiencia del mercado. Bajo el marco de un mercado emergente, este proceso presenta de indistinta forma retos paracualquier método de valoración, dado a que el mercado no obedece a los paradigmas tradicionales. Lo anterior hace referencia a que la valoración es aún más compleja, dado que los inversionistas se enfrentan a mayores riesgos y obstáculos. Así mismo, a medida que las economías se globalizan y el capital es más móvil, la valoración tomaráaún más importancia en el contexto citado. Este trabajo de gradopretende recopilar y analizar los diferentes métodos de valoración, además de identificar y aplicar aquellos que se reconocen como “buenas prácticas”. Este proceso se llevó a cabo para una de las empresas más importantes de Colombia, donde fundamentalmente se consideró el contexto de mercado emergente y específicamente el sector petrolero, como criterios para la aplicación del tradicional DCF y el práctico R&V.

Valoración del costo de los recursos propios de las empresas. caso particular: empresas de servicios a la persona en Francia

El WACC o Coste Medio Ponderado de Capital es la tasa a la que se deben descontar los flujos para evaluar un proyecto o empresa. Para calcular esta tasa es necesario determinar el costo de la deuda y el costo de los recursos propios de la compañía; el costo de la deuda es la tasa actual del mercado que la empresa está pagando por su deuda, sin embargo el costo de los recursos propios podría ser difícil y más complejo de estimar ya que no existe un costo explícito. En este trabajo se presenta un panorama de las teorías propuestas a lo largo de la historia para calcular el costo de los recursos propios. Como caso particular, se estimará el costo de los recursos propios sin apalancamiento financiero de seis empresas francesas que no cotizan en bolsa y pertenecientes al sector de Servicios a la Persona (SAP). Para lograr lo anterior, se utilizará el Proceso de Análisis Jerárquico (AHP) y el Modelo de Valoración del Precio de los Activos Financieros (CAPM) con base en lo presentado por Martha Pachón (2013) en “Modelo alternativo para calcular el costo de los recursos propios”.

Política exterior de Canadá en el ártico: entre la seguridad nacional y la prosperidad económica (2006-2011)

En el año 2010 el gobierno de Canadá pública su estrategia de política exterior hacia el Ártico, en la cual manifiesta que esta región es una de las principales prioridades del Gobierno de Stephen Harper en materia de política exterior. Así las cosas, a partir de la perspectiva teórica del realismo neoclásico la investigación se enfoca en analizar por qué la seguridad nacional y la prosperidad económica son los principales intereses de este Gobierno en la zona.

Principales errores de los gerentes colombianos en la administración y dirección de las empresas de hoy

El siguiente trabajo de investigación tiene como propósito la identificación, estudio y análisis de los principales errores de los gerentes colombianos en la administración y dirección de las empresas de hoy, el cual se encuentra dividido en cuatro partes: la primera hace referencia a la conceptualización del tema de investigación a nivel teórico que consiste en la definición que se ha determinado para el significado de error gerencial y dar respuesta a un conjunto de mitos de tipo epistemológicos, es decir, aquellos relacionados con significaciones o nociones que resultan tentativas desde otro punto de vista, pero que en efecto se diferencia del que se ha propuesto originalmente, permitiendo establecer los límites de lo que realmente implica dentro de la investigación. Luego, se realiza una contrastación y análisis teórico de los autores y sus estudios que busquen dar respuesta al problema de investigación enfocado en los principales errores de los gerentes colombianos en la administración y dirección de las organizaciones actuales. En tercera instancia, se muestran los resultados arrojados por la aplicación del instrumento para la detección y análisis de errores gerenciales en las organizaciones o empresas que fueron objeto de estudio con sus respectivos gerentes, de acuerdo con la metodología empleada para dicho caso. Por último, aparece una propuesta de cambio para la corrección de errores gerenciales encontrados y analizados en el contexto gerencial colombiano en pro de la perdurabilidad empresarial.

Análisis de sensibilidad para un modelo de medición de percepción de marca basado en simulación computacional por agentes

Se presenta el análisis de sensibilidad de un modelo de percepción de marca y ajuste de la inversión en marketing desarrollado en el Laboratorio de Simulación de la Universidad del Rosario. Este trabajo de grado consta de una introducción al tema de análisis de sensibilidad y su complementario el análisis de incertidumbre. Se pasa a mostrar ambos análisis usando un ejemplo simple de aplicación del modelo mediante la aplicación exhaustiva y rigurosa de los pasos descritos en la primera parte. Luego se hace una discusión de la problemática de medición de magnitudes que prueba ser el factor más complejo de la aplicación del modelo en el contexto práctico y finalmente se dan conclusiones sobre los resultados de los análisis.

Problemas y consecuencias del resurgir del pragmatismo norteamericano: 1952-1976

Revisión crítica de la ‘versión heredada’ sobre el resurgir del pragmatismo norteamericano. Aquí sostengo que ésta es una narrativa sobre la historia de la filosofía que puede ser usada para “reivindicar” la continuidad o para “añorar” la pérdida de esa tradición. Presento tres argumentos a favor de mi tesis sobre la versión heredada: i) es insuficiente para explicar el surgimiento del pragmatismo; ii) es un tipo de narrativa que hace plausible una imagen de la filosofía; iii) impide apreciar que la formación del canon obedece a los propósitos de los seguidores del movimiento.

La lectura en inglés.

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Hidden interlocutor misidentification in practical Turing Tests

Based on insufficient evidence, and inadequate research, Floridi and his students report inaccuracies and draw false conclusions in their Minds and Machines evaluation, which this paper aims to clarify. Acting as invited judges, Floridi et al. participated in nine, of the ninety-six, Turing tests staged in the finals of the 18th Loebner Prize for Artificial Intelligence in October 2008. From the transcripts it appears that they used power over solidarity as an interrogation technique. As a result, they were fooled on several occasions into believing that a machine was a human and that a human was a machine. Worse still, they did not realise their mistake. This resulted in a combined correct identification rate of less than 56%. In their paper they assumed that they had made correct identifications when they in fact had been incorrect.

Linguistic experiments and ordinary language philosophy

J.L. Austin is regarded as having an especially acute ear for fine distinctions of meaning overlooked by other philosophers. Austin employs an informal experimental approach to gathering evidence in support of these fine distinctions in meaning, an approach that has become a standard technique for investigating meaning in both philosophy and linguistics. In this paper, we subject Austin's methods to formal experimental investigation. His methods produce mixed results: We find support for his most famous distinction, drawn on the basis of his `donkey stories', that `mistake' and `accident' apply to different cases, but not for some of his other attempts to distinguish the meaning of philosophically significant terms (such as `intentionally' and `deliberately'). We critically examine the methodology of informal experiments employed in ordinary language philosophy and much of contemporary philosophy of language and linguistics, and discuss the role that experimenter bias can play in influencing judgments about informal and formal linguistic experiments.

Economic crises in England, 1270-1520: a statistical approach

The chapter examines how far medieval economic crises can be identified by analysing the residuals from a simultaneous equation model of the medieval English economy. High inflation, falls in gross domestic product and large intermittent changes in wage rates are all considered as potential indicators of crisis. Potential causal factors include bad harvests, wars and political instability. The chapter suggests that crises arose when a combination of different problems overwhelmed the capacity of government to address them. It may therefore be a mistake to look for a single cause of any crisis. The coincidence of separate problems is a more plausible explanation of many crises.

Obfuscation and Strict Online Anonymity

I consider the case for genuinely anonymous web searching. Big data seems to have it in for privacy. The story is well known, particularly since the dawn of the web. Vastly more personal information, monumental and quotidian, is gathered than in the pre-digital days. Once gathered it can be aggregated and analyzed to produce rich portraits, which in turn permit unnerving prediction of our future behavior. The new information can then be shared widely, limiting prospects and threatening autonomy. How should we respond? Following Nissenbaum (2011) and Brunton and Nissenbaum (2011 and 2013), I will argue that the proposed solutions—consent, anonymity as conventionally practiced, corporate best practices, and law—fail to protect us against routine surveillance of our online behavior. Brunton and Nissenbaum rightly maintain that, given the power imbalance between data holders and data subjects, obfuscation of one’s online activities is justified. Obfuscation works by generating “misleading, false, or ambiguous data with the intention of confusing an adversary or simply adding to the time or cost of separating good data from bad,” thus decreasing the value of the data collected (Brunton and Nissenbaum, 2011). The phenomenon is as old as the hills. Natural selection evidently blundered upon the tactic long ago. Take a savory butterfly whose markings mimic those of a toxic cousin. From the point of view of a would-be predator the data conveyed by the pattern is ambiguous. Is the bug lunch or potential last meal? In the light of the steep costs of a mistake, the savvy predator goes hungry. Online obfuscation works similarly, attempting for instance to disguise the surfer’s identity (Tor) or the nature of her queries (Howe and Nissenbaum 2009). Yet online obfuscation comes with significant social costs. First, it implies free riding. If I’ve installed an effective obfuscating program, I’m enjoying the benefits of an apparently free internet without paying the costs of surveillance, which are shifted entirely onto non-obfuscators. Second, it permits sketchy actors, from child pornographers to fraudsters, to operate with near impunity. Third, online merchants could plausibly claim that, when we shop online, surveillance is the price we pay for convenience. If we don’t like it, we should take our business to the local brick-and-mortar and pay with cash. Brunton and Nissenbaum have not fully addressed the last two costs. Nevertheless, I think the strict defender of online anonymity can meet these objections. Regarding the third, the future doesn’t bode well for offline shopping. Consider music and books. Intrepid shoppers can still find most of what they want in a book or record store. Soon, though, this will probably not be the case. And then there are those who, for perfectly good reasons, are sensitive about doing some of their shopping in person, perhaps because of their weight or sexual tastes. I argue that consumers should not have to pay the price of surveillance every time they want to buy that catchy new hit, that New York Times bestseller, or a sex toy.

Rekryteringsprocesser : Analys och betydelsen av rekryteringsprocesser

To make a company or an organization reach a goal it requires the right way of thinking when recruiting new employees. One mistake and one wrong recruitment can cause a company or an organization huge expense, which are possible to avoid. A right recruitment is about having a good recruitment process which will support the right decision when choosing new employees. The purpose of this thesis is to do an analysis on three recruitment companies recruitment process and show the significance of the recruitment process for hiring the right person for the right position. The information for this paper has been collected through interviews and literature which concerns this subject. Theories have been used to explain the entirety of an organization, why recruitment is needed and how recruitment is done in theory. The interviews have been used to explain how recruitment is done practically.

Los errores más frecuentes en la conjugación del adjetivo en su forma singular entre un grupo de alumnos suecos que estudian español nivel 3

AbstractThe objective of the thesis is to find what kind of mistakes a certain group of Swedish students make when studying Spanish as a modern language, specifically when using qualitative adjectives in their singular form. The result is based on the cases of twelve students who study Spanish Level 3, institute level. Four of them were interviewed afterwards.The methods used in this report were the quantitative method which helped quantifying the incidence of these mistakes made by the students through a data sheet, and the qualitative method by analyzing each mistake and the results of the interviews.The conclusion shows that the errors in the use of qualitative adjectives in their singular form occur when the adjectives are feminine, with great higher frequency in feminine abstract adjectives.Key wordsAdjectives, quantitative method, qualitative method, interlanguage, errors and error analysis

Financiamento para o subdesenvolvimento, o Brasil e o segundo consenso de Washington

While in the social and in the ethical realms the Cardoso administration was successful, its economic outcomes were frustrating. In this administration’s eight years the investment rate did not increase and income per capita growth lagged, while the public debt and the foreign debt increased substantially. This poor economic performance may be explained by three chained causes: a mistake in agenda setting, the adoption of the Second Washington Consensus, and the alienation of elites. The decision of setting high inflation as the major problem to be tackled instead of achieving equilibrium in foreign accounts represented a major macroeconomic mistake, which can be explained by the Second Washington Consensus. This consensus proposed in the 1990s that highly indebted countries should grow counting on foreign savings, although this is not the experience among OECD countries. The outcome was to evaluate the real, to increase artificially wages and consumption, so that instead of growth what we have been increased indebtedness. Why this flopped strategy was adopted? Rich countries’ interests are not difficult to guess. On the part of Brazil, the only explanation is Brazilian elites’ alienation in relation to the country’s national interest. As a final outcome, the Cardoso administration ends with another balance of payments crisis, which was empowered by the coming presidential elections. Yet, the solvency situation of the Brazilian economy have been improving since the 1999 successful floatation of the real, so that I believe that, adopted a policy that deepens fiscal adjustment, while lowers the interest rate, and avoids new evaluation of the real, the country will eventually be able to avoid default.

O estado necessário para a democracia possível na América latina

Uma democracia consolidada pressupõe um estado capaz, e para ambos é necessária uma nação forte e uma sociedade civil ativa. Diversas democracias na América Latina não alcançaram tais requisitos porque não completaram suas respectivas revoluções capitalistas, e o excedente econômico continua dependendo do controle direto do estado. Este fato demonstra que a qualidade das democracias varia de país para país, e prevê que as democracias possíveis nos países mais pobres serão necessariamente democracias limitadas. Desde que a democracia tornou-se uma justificativa para pressões e intervenções externas, é um erro incluir no conceito de democracia mais do que as necessidades mínimas, práticas. Por outro lado, para melhorar a democracia é necessário aumentar a capacidade do estado não apenas para assegurar o respeito às leis, mas também para promover o desenvolvimento econômico e social.