Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

Análise genética de escores de avaliação visual de bovinos com modelos bayesianos de limiar e linear

O objetivo deste trabalho foi comparar as estimativas de parâmetros genéticos obtidas em análises bayesianas uni-característica e bi-característica, em modelo animal linear e de limiar, considerando-se as características categóricas morfológicas de bovinos da raça Nelore. Os dados de musculosidade, estrutura física e conformação foram obtidos entre 2000 e 2005, em 3.864 animais de 13 fazendas participantes do Programa Nelore Brasil. Foram realizadas análises bayesianas uni e bi-características, em modelos de limiar e linear. de modo geral, os modelos de limiar e linear foram eficientes na estimação dos parâmetros genéticos para escores visuais em análises bayesianas uni-características. Nas análises bi-características, observou-se que: com utilização de dados contínuos e categóricos, o modelo de limiar proporcionou estimativas de correlação genética de maior magnitude do que aquelas do modelo linear; e com o uso de dados categóricos, as estimativas de herdabilidade foram semelhantes. A vantagem do modelo linear foi o menor tempo gasto no processamento das análises. Na avaliação genética de animais para escores visuais, o uso do modelo de limiar ou linear não influenciou a classificação dos animais, quanto aos valores genéticos preditos, o que indica que ambos os modelos podem ser utilizados em programas de melhoramento genético.

Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

Modelagem e simulação de um separador bifásico com inversão de fases induzida

The present work has the main goal to study the modeling and simulation of a biphasic separator with induced phase inversion, the MDIF, with the utilization of the finite differences method for the resolution of the partial differencial equations which describe the transport of contaminant s mass fraction inside the equipment s settling chamber. With this aim, was developed the deterministic differential model AMADDA, wich was admensionalizated and then semidiscretizated with the method of lines. The integration of the resultant system of ordinary differential equations was realized by means of a modified algorithm of the Adam-Bashfort- Moulton method, and the sthocastic optimization routine of Basin-Hopping was used in the model s parameter estimation procedure . With the aim to establish a comparative referential for the results obtained with the model AMADDA, were used experimental data presented in previous works of the MDIF s research group. The experimental data and those obtained with the model was assessed regarding its normality by means of the Shapiro-Wilk s test, and validated against the experimental results with the Student s t test and the Kruskal-Wallis s test, depending on the result. The results showed satisfactory performance of the model AMADDA in the evaluation of the MDIF s separation efficiency, being possible to determinate that at 1% significance level the calculated results are equivalent to those determinated experimentally in the reference works

Avaliação cinética e potencial do Nb2O5 obtido a partir de um complexo de nióbio para formação do oleato de metila através da reação de esterificação do ácido oleico

Among the heterogeneous catalysts materials made from niobium show up as an alternative to meet the demand of catalysts for biodiesel production. This study aims to evaluate the potential of a heterogeneous catalyst derived from a complex of niobium in the reaction of methyl esterification of oleic acid. The catalyst was synthesized after calcination at different temperatures of a niobium complex ((NH4)3[NbO(C2O4)3].H2O) generating a niobium oxide nanostructure with a different commercial niobium oxide used to synthesize the complex. The commercial niobium oxide, the complex niobium and niobium catalyst were characterized by thermogravimetry (TG and DTA), surface area analysis (BET), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD), showing the catalyst has researched morphological and crystallographic indicating a catalytic potential higher than that of commercial niobium oxide characteristics. Factorial with central composite design point, with three factors (calcination temperature, molar ratio of alcohol/oleic acid and mass percentage of catalyst) was performed. Noting that the optimal experimental point was given by the complex calcination temperature of 600°C, a molar ratio alcohol/oleic acid of 3.007/1 and the catalyst mass percentage of 7.998%, with a conversion of 22.44% oleic acid in methyl oleate to 60 min of reaction. We performed a composite linear and quadratic regression to determine an optimal statistical point of the reaction, the temperature of calcination of the complex at 450°C, the molar ratio of alcohol/oleic acid 3.3408/1 and mass percentage of catalyst of 7.6833% . Kinetic modeling to estimate parameters for heterogeneous catalysis it set well the experimental results with a final conversion of 85.01% with 42.38% of catalyst and without catalyst at 240 min reaction was performed. Allowing to evaluate the catalyst catalytic studied has the potential to be used in biodiesel production

Caracterização estatística de processos sísmicos via Distribuição Generalizada de Pareto. Estudo de caso: João Câmara-RN

The work is to make a brief discussion of methods to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Being addressed the following techniques: Moments (moments), Maximum Likelihood (MLE), Biased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMB), Unbiased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMU), Mean Power Density Divergence (MDPD), Median (MED), Pickands (PICKANDS), Maximum Penalized Likelihood (MPLE), Maximum Goodness-of-fit (MGF) and the Maximum Entropy (POME) technique, the focus of this manuscript. By way of illustration adjustments were made for the Generalized Pareto distribution, for a sequence of earthquakes intraplacas which occurred in the city of João Câmara in the northeastern region of Brazil, which was monitored continuously for two years (1987 and 1988). It was found that the MLE and POME were the most efficient methods, giving them basically mean squared errors. Based on the threshold of 1.5 degrees was estimated the seismic risk for the city, and estimated the level of return to earthquakes of intensity 1.5°, 2.0°, 2.5°, 3.0° and the most intense earthquake never registered in the city, which occurred in November 1986 with magnitude of about 5.2º

Controlador adaptativo backstepping a estrutura variável

Neste trabalho, um controlador adaptativo backstepping a estrutura variável (Variable Structure Adaptive Backstepping Controller, VS-ABC) é apresentado para plantas monovariáveis, lineares e invariantes no tempo com grau relativo unitário. Ao invés das tradicionais leis integrais para estimação dos parâmetros da planta, leis chaveadas são utilizadas com o objetivo de aumentar a robustez em relação a incertezas paramétricas e distúrbios externos, bem como melhorar o desempenho transitório do sistema. Adicionalmente, o projeto do novo controlador é mais intuitivo quando comparado ao controlador backstepping original, uma vez que os relés introduzidos apresentam amplitudes diretamente relacionadas com os parâmetros nominais da planta. Esta nova abordagem, com uso de estrutura variável, também reduz a complexidade das implementações práticas, motivando a utilização de componentes industriais, tais como, FPGAs (Field Programmable Gate Arrays ), MCUs (Microcontrollers) e DSPs (Digital Signal Processors). Simulações preliminares para um sistema instável de primeira e segunda ordem são apresentadas de modo a corroborar os estudos. Um dos exemplos de Rohrs é ainda abordado através de simulações, para os dois cenários adaptativos: o controlador backstepping adaptativo original e o VS-ABC

Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparação do ajuste dos modelos de morgan-mercer-flodin e de johnson-mehl-avrami na reação de precipitação na liga cu-3%al-5%ag

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Conservação genética de populações de Cryptocarya moschata Nees (Lauraceae) na Mata Atlântica do estado de São Paulo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Genotypic characterization of microsatellite markers in broiler and layer selected chicken lines and their reciprocal F1s

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Análise de dados de gastroenterite hemorrágica canina para identificar fatores de risco por regressão logística

No presente estudo, ajustou-se um modelo de regressão logística para prever a probabilidade de óbito de cães acometidos por gastroenterite hemorrágica. O modelo Logístico é recomendado para variáveis-resposta dicotômicas em estudo de Coorte. Registraram-se 176 animais censitariamente atendidos com gastroenterite hemorrágica em quatro clínicas veterinárias da cidade de Lavras, sul de Minas Gerais, entre os anos de 1992 e 1999. Após terem sido selecionadas por meio do teste de Pearson ou teste exato de Fisher, ajustou-se o modelo considerando-se as variáveis sexo, idade, diárias de internação e número de atendimentos. A estimação dos parâmetros foi feita pelo método da máxima verossimilhança. Conclui-se que quando os cães acometidos por gastroenterite hemorrágica são atendidos apenas uma vez, aqueles com idade superior a 6 meses possuem 15,45 vezes mais chances de morrerem (P<0,05) do que aqueles com menos de 6 meses de idade. Quando os animais que apresentam a enfermidade possuem mais de 6 meses de idade, a chance de morrerem, se forem atendidos apenas uma vez, é 20,251 vezes maior (P<0,05) do que se recebessem de 2 a 7 atendimentos.

Um Modelo para calibração de câmaras digitais baseado em linhas retas

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Função Gompertz aplicada a modelagem de produção do biogás em biodigestor tipo batelada

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Interação genótipo ambiente para perímetro escrotal em bovinos da raça Nelore utilizando normas de reação

Pós-graduação em Zootecnia - FCAV