Cropping solutions for the sugarcane farming systems of the Burdekin

The successful inclusion of break crops into the Burdekin sugar farming system will allow growers to diversify and capitalise on alternate crop income sources, particularly during cyclical downturns in sugar price. Secondly if cane productivity is improved through the inclusion of break crops, millers and growers stand to gain additional economic benefit compared to the current sugarcane monoculture.

Short- and long-term movement patterns in the freshwater whipray (Himantura dalyensis) determined by the signal processing of passive acoustic telemetry data.

Patterns of movement in aquatic animals reflect ecologically important behaviours. Cyclical changes in the abiotic environment influence these movements, but when multiple processes occur simultaneously, identifying which is responsible for the observed movement can be complex. Here we used acoustic telemetry and signal processing to define the abiotic processes responsible for movement patterns in freshwater whiprays (Himantura dalyensis). Acoustic transmitters were implanted into the whiprays and their movements detected over 12 months by an array of passive acoustic receivers, deployed throughout 64 km of the Wenlock River, Qld, Australia. The time of an individual's arrival and departure from each receiver detection field was used to estimate whipray location continuously throughout the study. This created a linear-movement-waveform for each whipray and signal processing revealed periodic components within the waveform. Correlation of movement periodograms with those from abiotic processes categorically illustrated that the diel cycle dominated the pattern of whipray movement during the wet season, whereas tidal and lunar cycles dominated during the dry season. The study methodology represents a valuable tool for objectively defining the relationship between abiotic processes and the movement patterns of free-ranging aquatic animals and is particularly expedient when periods of no detection exist within the animal location data.

Microeconometric Studies on Unemployment and Business Cycles

Väitöskirja koostuu neljästä esseestä, joissa tutkitaan empiirisen työntaloustieteen kysymyksiä. Ensimmäinen essee tarkastelee työttömyysturvan tason vaikutusta työllistymiseen Suomessa. Vuonna 2003 ansiosidonnaista työttömyysturvaa korotettiin työntekijöille, joilla on pitkä työhistoria. Korotus oli keskimäärin 15 % ja se koski ensimmäistä 150 työttömyyspäivää. Tutkimuksessa arvioidaan korotuksen vaikutus vertailemalla työllistymisen todennäköisyyksiä korotuksen saaneen ryhmän ja vertailuryhmän välillä ennen uudistusta ja sen jälkeen. Tuloksien perusteella työttömyysturvan korotus laski työllistymisen todennäköisyyttä merkittävästi, keskimäärin noin 16 %. Korotuksen vaikutus on suurin työttömyyden alussa ja se katoaa kun oikeus korotettuun ansiosidonnaiseen päättyy. Toinen essee tutkii työttömyyden pitkän aikavälin kustannuksia Suomessa keskittyen vuosien 1991 – 1993 syvään lamaan. Laman aikana toimipaikkojen sulkeminen lisääntyi paljon ja työttömyysaste nousi yli 13 prosenttiyksikköä. Tutkimuksessa verrataan laman aikana toimipaikan sulkemisen vuoksi työttömäksi jääneitä parhaassa työiässä olevia miehiä työllisinä pysyneisiin. Työttömyyden vaikutusta tarkastellaan kuuden vuoden seurantajaksolla. Vuonna 1999 työttömyyttä laman aikana kokeneen ryhmän vuosiansiot olivat keskimäärin 25 % alemmat kuin vertailuryhmässä. Tulojen menetys johtui sekä alhaisemmasta työllisyydestä että palkkatasosta. Kolmannessa esseessä tarkastellaan Suomen 1990-luvun alun laman aiheuttamaa työttömyysongelmaa tutkimalla työttömyyden kestoon vaikuttavia tekijöitä yksilötasolla. Kiinnostuksen kohteena on työttömyyden rakenteen ja työn kysynnän muutoksien vaikutus keskimääräiseen kestoon. Usein oletetaan, että laman seurauksena työttömäksi jää keskimääräistä huonommin työllistyviä henkilöitä, jolloin se itsessään pidentäisi keskimääräistä työttömyyden kestoa. Tuloksien perusteella makrotason kysyntävaikutus oli keskeinen työttömyyden keston kannalta ja rakenteen muutoksilla oli vain pieni kestoa lisäävä vaikutus laman aikana. Viimeisessä esseessä tutkitaan suhdannevaihtelun vaikutusta työpaikkaonnettomuuksien esiintymiseen. Tutkimuksessa käytetään ruotsalaista yksilötason sairaalahoitoaineistoa, joka on yhdistetty populaatiotietokantaan. Aineiston avulla voidaan tutkia vaihtoehtoisia selityksiä onnettomuuksien lisääntymiselle noususuhdanteessa, minkä on esitetty johtuvan esim. stressin tai kiireen vaikutuksesta. Tuloksien perusteella työpaikkaonnettomuudet ovat syklisiä, mutta vain tiettyjen ryhmien kohdalla. Työvoiman rakenteen vaihtelu saattaa selittää osan naisten onnettomuuksien syklisyydestä. Miesten kohdalla vain vähemmän vakavat onnettomuudet ovat syklisiä, mikä saattaa johtua strategisesta käyttäytymisestä.

Essays on macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy rules

Economic and Monetary Union can be characterised as a complicated set of legislation and institutions governing monetary and fiscal responsibilities. The measures of fiscal responsibility are to be guided by the Stability and Growth Pact, which sets rules for fiscal policy and makes a discretionary fiscal policy virtually impossible. To analyse the effects of the fiscal and monetary policy mix, we modified the New Keynesian framework to allow for supply effects of fiscal policy. We show that defining a supply-side channel for fiscal policy using an endogenous output gap changes the stabilising properties of monetary policy rules. The stability conditions are affected by fiscal policy, so that the dichotomy between active (passive) monetary policy and passive (active) fiscal policy as stabilising regimes does not hold, and it is possible to have an active monetary - active fiscal policy regime consistent with dynamical stability of the economy. We show that, if we take supply-side effects into ac-count, we get more persistent inflation and output reactions. We also show that the dichotomy does not hold for a variety of different fiscal policy rules based on government debt and budget deficit, using the tax smoothing hypothesis and formulating the tax rules as difference equations. The debt rule with active monetary policy results in indeterminacy, while the deficit rule produces a determinate solution with active monetary policy, even with active fiscal policy. The combination of fiscal requirements in a rule results in cyclical responses to shocks. The amplitude of the cycle is larger with more weight on debt than on deficit. Combining optimised monetary policy with fiscal policy rules means that, under a discretionary monetary policy, the fiscal policy regime affects the size of the inflation bias. We also show that commitment to an optimal monetary policy not only corrects the inflation bias but also increases the persistence of output reactions. With fiscal policy rules based on the deficit we can retain the tax smoothing hypothesis also in a sticky price model.

Trickle Down

This work expresses the complicated and cyclical sense of economic aspiration and ambivalence so prevalent in the lived experience of contemporary capitalism. The three-channel video animation depicts a single US dollar bill falling in a dark void-space. These fragments of negotiable value, evidence of a laborious hand-drawn process, tumble in slow-motion into and out of each video frame, towards an unseen ground and uncertain future, acting as an elegiac expression of a deep sense of economic precarity.

Real Estate Investment and Uncertainty: Econometric Modelling using Finnish Data

The purpose of this paper is to test for the effect of uncertainty in a model of real estate investment in Finland during the hihhly cyclical period of 1975 to 1998. We use two alternative measures of uncertainty. The first measure is the volatility of stock market returns and the second measure is the heterogeneity in the answers of the quarterly business survey of the Confederation of Finnish Industry and Employers. The econometric analysis is based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model and the paper applies a 'general-to-specific' modelling approach. We find that the measure of heterogeneity is significant in the model, but the volatility of stock market returns is not. The empirical results give some evidence of an uncertainty-induced threshold slowing down real estate investment in Finland.

Intraday Linkages across International Equity Markets

Utilizing concurrent 5-minute returns, the intraday dynamics and inter-market dependencies in international equity markets were investigated. A strong intraday cyclical autocorrelation structure in the volatility process was observed to be caused by the diurnal pattern. A major rise in contemporaneous cross correlation among European stock markets was also noticed to follow the opening of the New York Stock Exchange. Furthermore, the results indicated that the returns for UK and Germany responded to each other’s innovations, both in terms of the first and second moment dependencies. In contrast to earlier research, the US stock market did not cause significant volatility spillover to the European markets.

Production process of Scots pine.

The accompanying collective research report is the result of the research project in 1986­90 between The Finnish Academy and the former Soviet Academy of Sciences. The project was organized around common field work in Finland and in the former Soviet Union and theoretical analyses of tree growth determining processes. Based on theoretical analyses, dynamic stand growth models were made and their parameters were determined utilizing the field results. Annual cycle affects the tree growth. Our theoretical approach was based on adaptation to local climate conditions from Lapland to South Russia. The initiation of growth was described as a simple low and high temperature accumulation driven model. Linking the theoretical model with long term temperature data allowed us to analyze what type of temperature response produced favorable outcome in different climates. Initiation of growth consumes the carbohydrate reserves in plants. We measured the dynamics of insoluble and soluble sugars in the very northern and Karelian conditions. Clear cyclical pattern was observed but the differences between locations were surprisingly small. Analysis of field measurements of CO2 exchange showed that irradiance is the dominating factor causing variation in photosynthetic rate in natural conditions during summer. The effect of other factors is so small that they can be omitted without any considerable loss of accuracy. A special experiment carried out in Hyytiälä showed that the needle living space, defined as the ratio between the shoot cylindric volume and needle surface area, correlates with the shoot photosynthesis. The penetration of irradiance into Scots pine canopy is a complicated phenomenon because of the movement of the sun on the sky and the complicated structure of branches and needles. A moderately simple but balanced forest radiation regime submodel was constructed. It consists of the tree crown and forest structure, the gap probability calculation and the consideration of spatial and temporal variation of radiation inside the forest. The common field excursions in different geographical regions resulted in a lot of experimental data of regularities of woody structures. The water transport seems to be a good common factor to analyse these properties of tree structure. There are evident regressions between cross-sectional areas measured at different locations along the water pathway from fine roots to needles. The observed regressions have clear geographical trends. For example, the same cross-sectional area can support three times higher needle mass in South Russia than in Lapland. Geographical trends can also be seen in shoot and needle structure. Analysis of data published by several Russian authors show, that one ton of needles transpire 42 ton of water a year. This annual amount of transpiration seems to be independent of geographical location, year and site conditions. The produced theoretical and experimental material is utilised in the development of stand growth model that describes the growth and development of Scots pine stands in Finland and the former Soviet Union. The core of the model is carbon and nutrient balances. This means that carbon obtained in photosynthesis is consumed for growth and maintenance and nutrients are taken according to the metabolic needs. The annual photosynthetic production by trees in the stand is determined as a function of irradiance and shading during the active period. The utilisation of the annual photosynthetic production to the growth of different components of trees is based on structural regularities. Since the fundamental metabolic processes are the same in all locations the same growth model structure can be applied in the large range of Scots pine. The annual photosynthetic production and structural regularities determining the allocation of resources have geographical features. The common field measurements enable the application of the model to the analysis of growth and development of stands growing on the five locations of experiments. The model enables the analysis of geographical differences in the growth of Scots pine. For example, the annual photosynthetic production of a 100-year-old stand at Voronez is 3.5 times higher than in Lapland. The share consumed to needle growth (30 %) and to growth of branches (5 %) seems to be the same in all locations. In contrast, the share of fine roots is decreasing when moving from north to south. It is 20 % in Lapland, 15 % in Hyytiälä Central Finland and Kentjärvi Karelia and 15 % in Voronez South Russia. The stem masses (115­113 ton/ha) are rather similar in Hyytiälä, Kentjärvi and Voronez, but rather low (50 ton/ha) in Lapland. In Voronez the height of the trees reach 29 m being in Hyytiälä and Kentjärvi 22 m and in Lapland only 14 m. The present approach enables utilization of structural and functional knowledge, gained in places of intensive research, in the analysis of growth and development of any stand. This opens new possibilities for growth research and also for applications in forestry practice.

Use of a specific aromatase inhibitor for determining whether there is a role for oestrogen in follicle/oocyte maturation, ovulation and preimplantation embryo development

The specific role of oestrogen in follicular maturation, ovulation and early embryonic development was investigated using Fadrozole (CGS 16949A), a non-steroidal aromatase inhibitor, to block oestrogen synthesis specifically and effectively in experimental animals. Induced and normal cyclical follicular maturation as well as normal and hCG/LH-induced ovulation were relatively unaffected by significantly depleting oestrogen in all animals (hamsters, rabbits, monkeys) studied other than rats. Fadrozole treatment significantly reduced the number of healthy antral follicles produced and the ovulatory response to exogenous hCG of immature rats primed with pregnant mares' serum gonadotrophin. The effect was specific, in that exogenously administered oestrogen reversed the blockade. Depletion of oestrogen, starting early in pro-oestrus in hamsters, had no effect on ovulation, oocyte maturation and fertilization, as normal implantation sites were seen on day 6 after coitus. In rabbits, oestrogen depletion during the periovulatory phase affected oviductal morphology and function. Although fertilization was not impaired, early embryo development did not appear to be normal. In monkeys, oestrogen depletion during the follicular phase did not lead to a block of follicular maturation or ovulation but resulted in a significant reduction in secretion of cervical mucus. Administration of either Fadrozole or Tamoxifen during the early luteal phase in cyclic monkeys that were allowed to mate prevented implantation and this appears to be due to impaired fertilization or faulty embryo development. These results suggest that, although there is a clear requirement for oestrogen to support the reproductive cycle in the female, the need for oestrogen in regulating specific events is species dependent.

Assessment of estrus cyclicity in the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) by measurement of fecal progesterone metabolite 5 alpha-P-3OH, using a non-invasive assay

Reproductive management of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) is important for its conservation. To monitor its estrous cyclicity, we earlier used an indirect ELISA to show that levels of fecal progesterone (P(4))-metabolite (allopregnanolone: 5 alpha-P-3OH) in semi-captive females sampled randomly positively correlated with serum P(4) levels [12]. In this longitudinal study (51 weeks), we measured levels of fecal 5 alpha-P-3OH and serum P(4) in seven semi-captive female elephants. Females exhibited three types of hormonal profiles. Four females showed cyclical patterns of fecal 5 alpha-P-3OH and serum P(4) typical of normal estrous cycles, two showed acyclic pattern while one showed high values indicative of a pregnant animal. Values for anestrous or follicular phases were <= 0.3 mu g g(-1), (5 alpha-P-3OH) and <= 0.3 ng mL(-1) (P(4)); for luteal phase 0.32-11.09 mu g g(-1) (5 alpha-P-3OH) and 0.32-1.48 ng mL(-1) (P(4)); for pregnancy 1.41-7.38 mu g g(-1) (5 alpha-P-3OH) and 0.39-1.6 ng mL(-1) (R(4)). A positive correlation (t = 8.8, p < 0.01, n = 321) between levels of fecal 5 alpha-P-3OH and serum P4 was observed. A random sample of 30 free-ranging female elephants showed fecal 5 alpha-P-3OH values of 0.06-23.4 mu g g(-1), indicating them to be in different stages of estrous cyclicity. This study is the first to assess the reproductive phases of female Asian elephants based on the correlative-patterns of both the fecal 5 alpha-P-3OH and serum P(4) values over multiple estrous cycles. This has a potential application in the reproductive management and conservation of Asian elephants. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Neonatal exposure to 17 beta-estradiol down-regulates the expression of synaptogenesis related genes in selected brain regions of adult female rats

Aims: Administration of estradiol or compounds with estrogenic activity to newborn female rats results in irreversible masculinization as well as defeminization in the brain and the animals exhibit altered reproductive behavior as adults. The cellular and molecular mechanism involved in inducing the irreversible changes is largely unknown. In the present study, we have monitored the changes in the expression of selected synaptogenesis related genes in the sexually dimorphic brain regions such as POA, hypothalamus and pituitary following 17 beta-estradiol administration to neonatal female rats. Main methods: Female Wistar rats which were administered 17 beta-estradiol on day 2 and 3 after birth were sacrificed 120 days later and the expression levels of genes implicated in synaptogenesis were monitored by semi-quantitative reverse transcription PCR. Since estradiol induced up-regulation of COX-2 in POA is a marker for estradiol induced masculinization as well as defeminization, in the present study only animals in which the increase in expression of COX-2 gene was observed in POA were included in the study. Key findings: Down-regulation of genes such as NMDA-2B, NETRIN-1, BDNF, MT-5 MMP and TNF-alpha was observed in the pre-optic area of neonatally E2 treated female rat brain but not in hypothalamus and pituitary compared to the vehicle- treated controls as assessed by RT-PCR and Western blot analysis. Significance: Our results suggest a possibility that down-regulation of genes associated with synaptogenesis in POA, may be resulting in disruption of the cyclical regulation of hormone secretion by pituitary the consequence of which could be infertility and altered reproductive behavior. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pulse vs. Optimal Stationary Fishing: The Northern Stock of Hake

Pulse fishing may be a global optimal strategy in multicohort fisheries. In this article we compare the pulse fishing solutions obtained by using global numerical methods with the analytical stationary optimal solution. This allows us to quantify the potential benefits associated with the use of periodic fishing in the Northern Stock of hake. Results show that: first, management plans based exclusively on traditional reference targets as Fmsy may drive fishery economic results far from the optimal; second, global optimal solutions would imply, in a cyclical manner, the closure of the fishery for some periods and third, second best stationary policies with stable employment only reduce optimal present value of discounted profit in a 2%.

Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Should Fiscal Policy be different in a Non-Competitive Framework?

Published as an article in: Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003, vol. 50, issue 6, pages 1311-1331.

Wage stickiness and unemployment fluctuations: an alternative approach

28 p.