On the welfare costs of business cycles in the 20th century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research, that the welfare cost of business cycles are relatively small. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a reasonable reduced form for consumption, we computed these welfare costs for the pre- and post-WWII era, using three alternative trend-cycle decomposition methods. The post-WWII period is very era this basic result is dramatically altered. For the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition, and reasonable preference parameter and discount values, we get a compensation of about 5% of consumption, which is by all means a sizable welfare cost (about US$ 1,000.00 a year).

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major differences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values -β=0.985, and ∅=5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% - the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business- cycle fluctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same figures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas(1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major diferences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values = 0:985, and = 5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business-cycle uctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same gures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

The market strategies alternatives of an e-business start-up in Brazil

The e-business market is one of the fastest growing markets in Brazil, with e-business sales accounting for BRL 14.8 billion in 2010 and a growth of 40% per year (+1000% over the past 7 years). Sales-event clubs and collective bargaining websites are one of the most dynamic segments of the e-business market: the number of new players is increasing rapidly, with over 1200 collective bargaining websites currently operating in Brazil. In that context, growth and differentiation seem to be two key success factors for Coquelux. According to webshopper (23rd Edition, e-bit), growth can be achieved by targeting middle and low-income consumers from class C, who represent 50% of the total e-commerce sales. But Coquelux, which is specialized in desire and luxury brands, has built its reputation and competitive advantage through its “exclusivity”, by targeting wealthier consumers from classes A and B who are attracted by its fashionable and high-end positioning. The evolution (growth?) of this market and the development of its competition naturally raise a strategic question for Coquelux’s managers: can Coquelux grow and still maintain its competitive advantage? Should it grow by expanding its consumer base to class C? If so, how? Consumers from classes A, B or C must be targeted through the same online communication channels. Recent studies from the ABEP/ABIPEME emphasized the importance of social networks as a tool for converting new clients and gaining their loyalty, regardless of their social class. However, high-income and low-income e-consumers do not have the same consumption habits, do not respond to the same type of marketing strategies, and most importantly, do not share the same values. Thus, it seems difficult to expand Coquelux’s consumer base to class C without changing its marketing strategies and altering its image Three options were identified for Coquelux: reinforcing its leadership on the luxury segment and focusing on a small niche market (1), which would threaten its survival in the long run; completely changing its strategy and competing for a mass market through commercial brands (2), which requires major financial investments that managers don’t have access to; or finding an intermediary solution (3). This thesis’ recommendation for the third option consists in focusing on premium brands (rather than luxury) in order to increase sales volume (Coquelux’s most profitable sales happened with local desire brands) with products that appeal to class B but also attract the emerging class C which is looking for brand recognition. It could thus implement a slow entry strategy towards the mass market without damaging its main competitive advantage.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond

The main objective of this paper is to propose a novel setup that allows estimating separately the welfare costs of the uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and from economic-growth variation, when the two types of shocks associated with them (respectively,transitory and permanent shocks) hit consumption simultaneously. Separating these welfare costs requires dealing with degenerate bivariate distributions. Levis Continuity Theorem and the Disintegration Theorem allow us to adequately de ne the one-dimensional limiting marginal distributions. Under Normality, we show that the parameters of the original marginal distributions are not afected, providing the means for calculating separately the welfare costs of business-cycle uctuations and of economic-growth variation. Our empirical results show that, if we consider only transitory shocks, the welfare cost of business cycles is much smaller than previously thought. Indeed, we found it to be negative - -0:03% of per-capita consumption! On the other hand, we found that the welfare cost of economic-growth variation is relatively large. Our estimate for reasonable preference-parameter values shows that it is 0:71% of consumption US$ 208:98 per person, per year.

Practices in social media in the travel education business

Praticas na midia social se refere a vista ou a percepcao de uma marca nao so com base em suas ofertas e servicos, mas tambem sobre seus valores e cultura como percebido principalmente pelos consumidores. As organizacoes podem utilizer a imagem que é interessante e aceitavel para os clients. Nos ultimos anos, uma das formas que as organizacoes de forma consistente comercializar ou publicitar a sua marca envolve midias sociais. O ojetivo deste estudo é explorer quais sao as praticas de midia social no negocio de educacao de viagens. Para obter os dados, a pesquisadora entrevistou pessoas de seis empresas de educacao de viagens e cotejadas informacoes sobre o tema a partir de fonts primarias e secundarias existentes. O pesquisador conduziu a pesquisa para determiner praticas de marketing de midia social em que se aplicam nos sectores do turismo e educacao. Com base nos dados obtidos pelo pesquisador, as praticas de marketing de midia social incluem a utilizacao de plataformas de midia social com um alcance internacional generalizada tipo Facebook, Twitter, Instagram e YouTube. Outra estratégia é para postar constantemente as atualizações que não são apenas interessante, mas também informativo sobre os produtos e serviços oferecidos por uma marca ou organização. As empresas ou organizações devem também interagir com os clientes ou clientes on-line, a fim de manter os interesses deste último em ofertas e serviços da ex. O envolvimento do cliente é uma das razões por que os clientes optam por seguir as empresas on-line através da mídia social. A pesquisa também revela outras vantagens e benefícios da mídia social que constituem as melhores práticas, tais como a conversão de não-clientes para os clientes, o aumento da presença da mídia para aumentar a popularidade, a comunicação eficaz das metas e objetivos organizacionais, bem como a formação de um bom relacionamento com os clientes. As organizações também podem usar turístico criado conteúdo (TCC) e outros tipos de conteúdo para orientar a tomada de decisão no desenvolvimento do produto gerado pelo usuário.

Business diplomacy: the compass rose of foreign markets

With transnational corporations (TNCs) around the world today numbering over 60,000 and more than 800,000 affiliates working abroad, it is easy to understand how modern day international business could have transformed into a major global player serving at the axis of politics, social and environmental responsibility. Additionally, with accountability to a large variety of both public and private stakeholders, all exerting significant power and influence, today’s global corporate structure is reinventing modern international relations, and in some cases, dominating it. (Muldoon 2005) This transformative nature of globalization today can also serve as a source of friction among this growing chorus of players and is bringing irreversible change to these relationships and how they impact and influence business around the world. (Muldoon 2005) From the largest to the smallest international corporation seeking to expand into new international markets, the challenges that come with corporate ambition can mean the difference between success and failure and they find a home at the intersection of international relations, diplomacy and economics. To successfully navigate these challenges, especially in emerging economies, a company must now factor in more than just the “bottom line” and address complex issues that include human rights differences, environmental regulations, labor rights and values of each country. (Henisz, 2014) Combined with modern-day mobility achieved through technology and the Internet, corporations today have a great capacity to reach targeted audiences and establish a presence, but it is this same technology that also allows for immediate response to any corporate action. This constant, 24-hour news cycle, where everyone is made to be a real-time reporter through social media, has created a situation that demonstrably necessitates the ability to not only 3 respond immediately, but also to have real-time understanding of the challenges faced by a corporation as it looks toward global expansion. International Business Diplomacy, or simply Business Diplomacy as it will be referred to in this paper, combines all of these nuanced factors into a relatively new discipline that offers companies looking to expand into new markets, guidelines and directives so that they can more strategically map corporate direction, limit risk and achieve their objectives. This paper will examine the history of diplomacy and how the concept of statecraft became intertwined with the increasing globalization of business. Following a scholarly examination of how modern Business Diplomacy came into being, and the unique challenges that come with its application, particularly the liabilities needed to be overcome, this paper will apply the concept to the Brazilian aerospace manufacturer Embraer, tracking its strategic emergence from a small, regionally focused aircraft producer to global leader in the regional and executive jet market platforms. It will then examine Embraer’s entrance into the Chinese market, where the company suffered from several missteps and eventually had to refocus its business model from commercial to executive jets. Finally, as globalization continues to “emancipate international business from its institutional and social constraints,” (Muldoon 2005) this paper will address how the relatively new and emerging discipline of Business Diplomacy is continuing to mature and grow in stature and influence through the proposition of a new challenge or “liability” that corporations must also overcome as they expand into new markets. Through the analysis of Embraer in China, this paper will introduce the Liability of Governance to the lexicon of Business Diplomacy and propose specific steps that a company can undertake to avoid it.

Utilização de soluções business-to-business (B2B) no segmento downstream da cadeia de suprimentos de uma distribuidora de combustíveis

The pursuit of competitive advantage is lobbying organizations to strategically plan the use of their material, human, technological and financial resources, so that it s possible to add value to the product, even when it is considered a commodity. The scenario for this planning should not be limited to the company in question, but cover an entire supply chain, which is composed of several organizations which have common goals of growth and sustainability of the market. They should form trade links, integrating the chains of individual values, in a perspective of value system. In this supply chain there is a flow of services, payments and information, as products well as. The training of these links can be supported by the adoption of a set of information technology, here called solutions business-to-business (B2B), which will be responsible for the production, storage and distribution of relevant information to business transactions between the companies involved. On this view, this thesis aims to describe the B2B solutions adopted in the downstream segment of the supply chain of a distributor of fuel and the nature of these technologies as well as their impact on the creation of value for business and optimization of the relationship between companies. This is a case study on a national distributor of fuels, from a model of research produced under the influence of theories of integrated logistics system and value of Michael Porter. The analyses came to the conclusion that information technology is perceived as an essential tool to the operation of all activities carried out by the company. Among them, at was also brought the key activities of integrated logistics: administration of applications, inventory management, management transport and customer services, which were highlighted in this study. It was also noticed that even these activities are, in principle, purely operational; they all had in the adoption of strategies for leadership in cost or differentiation, supported by B2B solutions identified, making it more conducive to business and direct customer, the clinic reseller of fuel, to obtain value and benefits of this market segment as competitive

2006 Michigan Dairy Farm Business Analysis Summary

This report summarizes the financial and production records of 139 dairy farms from throughout Michigan in 2006. To be included, the farms must have produced at least 50 percent of gross cash farm income from milk and dairy animal sales. The records came from Michigan State University’s TelFarm project and the Farm Credit Service system in Michigan. The values were pooled into averages for reporting purposes. The farms are larger than would be the average of all dairy farms in Michigan. While considerable variation in the data exists, average values are reported in the summary tables and discussion that follows.

Ethical Cultures in Large Business Organizations in Brazil, Russia, India, and China

This study focuses on comparison of perceptions of ethical business cultures in large business organizations from four largest emerging economies, commonly referred to as the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), and from the US. The data were collected from more than 13,000 managers and employees of business organizations in five countries. The study found significant differences among BRIC countries, with respondents from India and Brazil providing more favorable assessments of ethical cultures of their organizations than respondents from China and Russia. Overall, highest mean scores were provided by respondents from India, the US, and Brazil. There were significant similarities in ratings between the US and Brazil.

Business Clusters in Eastern Europe: Policy Analysis and Cluster Performance

Clusters have increasingly become an essential part of policy discourses at all levels, EU, national, regional, dealing with regional development, competitiveness, innovation, entrepreneurship, SMEs. These impressive efforts in promoting the concept of clusters on the policy-making arena have been accompanied by much less academic and scientific research work investigating the actual economic performance of firms in clusters, the design and execution of cluster policies and going beyond singular case studies to a more methodologically integrated and comparative approach to the study of clusters and their real-world impact. The theoretical background is far from being consolidated and there is a variety of methodologies and approaches for studying and interpreting this phenomenon while at the same time little comparability among studies on actual cluster performances. The conceptual framework of clustering suggests that they affect performance but theory makes little prediction as to the ultimate distribution of the value being created by clusters. This thesis takes the case of Eastern European countries for two reasons. One is that clusters, as coopetitive environments, are a new phenomenon as the previous centrally-based system did not allow for such types of firm organizations. The other is that, as new EU member states, they have been subject to the increased popularization of the cluster policy approach by the European Commission, especially in the framework of the National Reform Programmes related to the Lisbon objectives. The originality of the work lays in the fact that starting from an overview of theoretical contributions on clustering, it offers a comparative empirical study of clusters in transition countries. There have been very few examples in the literature that attempt to examine cluster performance in a comparative cross-country perspective. It adds to this an analysis of cluster policies and their implementation or lack of such as a way to analyse the way the cluster concept has been introduced to transition economies. Our findings show that the implementation of cluster policies does vary across countries with some countries which have embraced it more than others. The specific modes of implementation, however, are very similar, based mostly on soft measures such as funding for cluster initiatives, usually directed towards the creation of cluster management structures or cluster facilitators. They are essentially founded on a common assumption that the added values of clusters is in the creation of linkages among firms, human capital, skills and knowledge at the local level, most often perceived as the regional level. Often times geographical proximity is not a necessary element in the application process and cluster application are very similar to network membership. Cluster mapping is rarely a factor in the selection of cluster initiatives for funding and the relative question about critical mass and expected outcomes is not considered. In fact, monitoring and evaluation are not elements of the cluster policy cycle which have received a lot of attention. Bulgaria and the Czech Republic are the countries which have implemented cluster policies most decisively, Hungary and Poland have made significant efforts, while Slovakia and Romania have only sporadically and not systematically used cluster initiatives. When examining whether, in fact, firms located within regional clusters perform better and are more efficient than similar firms outside clusters, we do find positive results across countries and across sectors. The only country with negative impact from being located in a cluster is the Czech Republic.

Integrating structured and unstructured data in a business-intelligence-system

The recent liberalization of the German energy market has forced the energy industry to develop and install new information systems to support agents on the energy trading floors in their analytical tasks. Besides classical approaches of building a data warehouse giving insight into the time series to understand market and pricing mechanisms, it is crucial to provide a variety of external data from the web. Weather information as well as political news or market rumors are relevant to give the appropriate interpretation to the variables of a volatile energy market. Starting from a multidimensional data model and a collection of buy and sell transactions a data warehouse is built that gives analytical support to the agents. Following the idea of web farming we harvest the web, match the external information sources after a filtering and evaluation process to the data warehouse objects, and present this qualified information on a user interface where market values are correlated with those external sources over the time axis.

Market, Management and Profession. Social Business in the Polder

In a recent policy document of the organized employers in the care and welfare sector in The Netherlands (the MO Group), directors and board members of care and welfare institutions present themselves as "social entrepreneurs", managing their institutions as look-a like commercial companies. They are hardly criticized and there is not any countervailing power of significance. The workers are focusing on their own specialized professional fields and divided as a whole. Many government officials are in favour or do not bother. The relatively small number of intellectual workers in Dutch care and welfare are fragmented and pragmatic. From a democratic point of view this is a worrying situation. From a professional point of view the purpose and functions of professional care and welfare work are at stake. The penetration of market mechanisms and the take-over by commercially orientated managers result from unquestioned adaptation of Anglo-Saxon policy in The Netherlands in the 1990's, following the crisis of the Welfare State in the late 1980's. The polder country is now confronted fully with the pressure and negative effects of unbalanced powers in the institutions, i.e. Managerialism. After years of silence, the two principal authentic critics of Dutch care and welfare, Harry Kunneman and Andries Baart, are no longer voices crying in the wilderness, but are getting a response from a growing number of worried workers and intellectuals. Kunneman and Baart warn against the restriction of professional space and the loss of normative values and standards in the profession. They are right. It is high time to make room for criticism and to start a debate about the future of the social professions in The Netherlands, better: in Europe. Research, discussion and action have to prove how worrying the everyday situation of professional workers is, what goals have to be set and what strategy to be chosen.

Effects of reduced and business-as-usual CO2 emission scenarios on the algal territories of the damselfish Pomacentrus wardi (Pomacentridae)

Turf algae are a very important component of coral reefs, featuring high growth and turnover rates, whilst covering large areas of substrate. As food for many organisms, turf algae have an important role in the ecosystem. Farming damselfish can modify the species composition and productivity of such algal assemblages, while defending them against intruders. Like all organisms however, turf algae and damselfishes have the potential to be affected by future changes in seawater (SW) temperature and pCO2. In this study, algal assemblages, in the presence and absence of farming Pomacentrus wardi were exposed to two combinations of SW temperature and pCO2 levels projected for the austral spring of 2100 (the B1 "reduced" and the A1FI "business-as-usual" CO2 emission scenarios) at Heron Island (GBR, Australia). These assemblages were dominated by the presence of red algae and non-epiphytic cyanobacteria, i.e. cyanobacteria that grow attached to the substrate rather than on filamentous algae. The endpoint algal composition was mostly controlled by the presence/absence of farming damselfish, despite a large variability found between the algal assemblages of individual fish. Different scenarios appeared to be responsible for a mild, species specific change in community composition, observable in some brown and green algae, but only in the absence of farming fish. Farming fish appeared unaffected by the conditions to which they were exposed. Algal biomass reductions were found under "reduced" CO2 emission, but not "business-as-usual" scenarios. This suggests that action taken to limit CO2 emissions may, if the majority of algae behave similarly across all seasons, reduce the potential for phase shifts that lead to algal dominated communities. At the same time the availability of food resources to damselfish and other herbivores would be smaller under "reduced" emission scenarios.