973 resultados para Uncertainty Management
Resumo:
Organizations are today characterized by uncertainty, fast changes and inability to predict the future. Both trust and communication are vital when changes are implemented in an organization. The purpose of this study was to examine how a change process can be enhanced by the means of communication and trust. This study was cheated by using the existing literature related to the subject.
Resumo:
Biotechnology has been recognized as the key strategic technology for industrial growth. The industry is heavily dependent on basic research. Finland continues to rank in the top 10 of Europe's most innovative countries in terms of tax-policy, education system, infrastructure and the number of patents issued. Regardless of the excellent statistical results, the output of this innovativeness is below acceptable. Research on the issues hindering the output creation has already been done and the identifiable weaknesses in the Finland's National Innovation system are the non-existent growth of entrepreneurship and the missing internationalization. Finland is proven to have all the enablers of the innovation policy tools, but is lacking the incentives and rewards to push the enablers, such as knowledge and human capital, forward. Science Parks are the biggest operator in research institutes in the Finnish Science and Technology system. They exist with the purpose of speeding up the commercialization process of biotechnology innovations which usually include technological uncertainty, technical inexperience, business inexperience and high technology cost. Innovation management only internally is a rather historic approach, current trend drives towards open innovation model with strong triple helix linkages. The evident problems in the innovation management within the biotechnology industry are examined through a case study approach including analysis of the semi-structured interviews which included biotechnology and business expertise from Turku School of Economics. The results from the interviews supported the theoretical implications as well as conclusions derived from the pilot survey, which focused on the companies inside Turku Science Park network. One major issue that the Finland's National innovation system is struggling with is the fact that it is technology driven, not business pulled. Another problem is the university evaluation scale which focuses more on number of graduates and short-term factors, when it should put more emphasis on the cooperation success in the long-term, such as the triple helix connections with interaction and knowledge distribution. The results of this thesis indicated that there is indeed requirement for some structural changes in the Finland's National innovation system and innovation policy in order to generate successful biotechnology companies and innovation output. There is lack of joint output and scales of success, lack of people with experience, lack of language skills, lack of business knowledge and lack of growth companies.
Resumo:
As the rapid development of the society as well as the lifestyle, the generation of commercial waste is getting more complicated to control. The situation of packaging waste and food waste – the main fractions of commercial waste in different countries in Europe and Asia is analyzed in order to evaluate and suggest necessary improvements for the existing waste management system in the city of Hanoi, Vietnam. From all waste generation sources of the city, a total amount of approximately 4000 tons of mixed waste is transported to the composting facility and the disposal site, which emits a huge amount of 1,6Mt of GHG emission to the environment. Recycling activity is taking place spontaneously by the informal pickers, leads to the difficulty in managing the whole system and uncertainty of the overall data. With a relative calculation, resulting in only approximately 0,17Mt CO2 equivalent emission, incinerator is suggested to be the solution of the problem with overloaded landfill and raising energy demand within the inhabitants.
Resumo:
This research studied the project performance measurement from the perspective of strategic management. The objective was to find a generic model for project performance measurement that emphasizes strategy and decision making. Research followed the guidelines of a constructive research methodology. As a result, the study suggests a model that measures projects with multiple meters during and after projects. Measurement after the project is suggested to be linked to the strategic performance measures of a company. The measurement should be conducted with centralized project portfolio management e.g. using the project management office in the organization. Metrics, after the project, measure the project’s actual benefit realization. During the project, the metrics are universal and they measure the accomplished objectives relation to costs, schedule and internal resource usage. Outcomes of these measures should be forecasted by using qualitative or stochastic methods. Solid theoretical background for the model was found from the literature that covers the subjects of performance measurement, projects and uncertainty. The study states that the model can be implemented in companies. This statement is supported by empirical evidence from a single case study. The gathering of empiric evidence about the actual usefulness of the model in companies is left to be done by the evaluative research in the future.
Resumo:
Organizations that provide health and social services operate in a complex and constantly changing environment. Changes occur, for example, in ageing, technology and biotechnology, and customers’ expectations, as well as the global economic situation. Organizations typically aim to adapt the changes by introducing new organizational structures and managerial practices, such as process and lean management. Only recently has there been an interest in evaluating whether organizations providing health and social services could apply modularity in order to respond to some of the changes. The concept of modularity originates from manufacturing, but is applied in many other disciplines, such as information technology and logistics. However, thus far, the literature concerning modularity in health and social services is scarce. Therefore the purpose of this thesis is to increase understanding concerning modularity and the possibilities to apply modularity in the health and social services context. In addition, the purpose is to shed light on the viewpoints that are worth taking into account when considering the application of modularity in the health and social services context. The aim of the thesis is to analyze the way in which the modular structures are applied in the health and social services context and to analyze what advantages and possible barriers, as well as managerial concerns, might occur if modularity is applied in the health and social services context. The thesis is conducted by using multiple methods in order to provide a broad aspect to the topic. A systematic literature review provided solid ground for pre-understanding the topic and supported the formulation of the research questions. Theoretical reasoning provided a general overview of the special characteristics of the health and social services context and their effect on application of modularity. Empirical studies concentrated on managerial concerns of modularity particularly from the perspective of health and social services for the elderly. Results of the thesis reveal that structures in products, services, processes, and organizations are rather modular in health and social services. They can be decomposed in small independent units, while the challenges seem to occur especially in the compatibility of the services. It seems that health and social services managers have recognized this problem and they are increasingly paying attention to this challenge in order to enhance the flexible compatibility of services. Advantages and possible barriers of modularity are explored in this thesis, and from the theoretical perspective it could be argued that modularity seems to be beneficial in the context of health and social services. In fact, it has the potential to alleviate several of the challenges that the health and social services context is confronting. For example, modular structures could support organizations in their challenging task to respond to customers’ increasing demand for heterogeneous services. However, special characteristics of the health and social services context create barriers and provide significant challenges in application of modularity. For example, asymmetry of information, negative externalities, uncertainty of demand, and rigid regulation prevent managers from extensively drawing benefits from modularity. Results also reveal that modularity has managerial implications in health and social service. Modularity has the potential to promote and support new service development and outsourcing. Results also provide insights into network management and increases managerial understanding of different network management strategies. Standardization in health and social services is extensive due to legislation and recommendations. Modularity provides alternative paths to take an advantage of standardization while still ensuring the quality of the services. Based on this thesis, it can be concluded, both from a theoretical perspective and from empirical results concerning modularity in health and social services, that modularity might fit well and be beneficial. However, the special characteristics of the health and social services context prevent some of the benefits of modularity and complicate its application. This thesis contributes to the academic literature on the organization and management of health and social services by describing modularity as an alternative way for organizing and managing health and social services. In addition, it contributes to the literature of modularity by exploring the applicability of modularity in the context of health and social services. It also provides practical contribution to health and social services managers by evaluating the pros and cons of modularity when applied to health and social services.
Resumo:
La thèse propose d’introduire une perspective globale dans le traitement juridique du transport intermodal international qui prendrait racine dans la stratégie logistique des entreprises. La conception juridique se heurte, en effet, aux évolutions opérationnelles et organisationnelles des transports et aboutit à une incertitude juridique. Les transporteurs ont dû s’adapter aux exigences d’optimisation des flux des chargeurs dont les modes de production et de distribution reposent sur le supply chain management (SCM). Ce concept est le fruit de la mondialisation et des technologies de l’information. La concurrence induite par la mondialisation et le pilotage optimal des flux ont impulsé de nouvelles stratégies de la part des entreprises qui tentent d’avoir un avantage concurrentiel sur le marché. Ces stratégies reposent sur l’intégration interfonctionnelle et interoganisationnelle. Dans cette chaîne logistique globale (ou SCM) l’intermodal est crucial. Il lie et coordonne les réseaux de production et de distribution spatialement désagrégés des entreprises et, répond aux exigences de maîtrise de l’espace et du temps, à moindre coût. Ainsi, le transporteur doit d’une part, intégrer les opérations de transport en optimisant les déplacements et, d’autre part, s’intégrer à la chaîne logistique du client en proposant des services de valeur ajoutée pour renforcer la compétitivité de la chaîne de valeur. Il en découle une unité technique et économique de la chaîne intermodale qui est pourtant, juridiquement fragmentée. Les Conventions internationales en vigueur ont été élaborées pour chaque mode de transport en faisant fi de l’interaction entre les modes et entre les opérateurs. L’intermodal est considéré comme une juxtaposition des modes et des régimes juridiques. Ce dépeçage juridique contraste avec la gestion de la chaîne intermodale dont les composantes individuelles s’effacent au profit de l’objectif global à atteindre. L’on expose d’abord l’ampleur de l’incertitude juridique due aux difficultés de circonscrire le champ d’opérations couvert par les Conventions en vigueur. Une attention est portée aux divergences d’interprétations qui débouchent sur la « désunification » du droit du transport. On s’intéresse ensuite aux interactions entre le transport et la chaîne logistique des chargeurs. Pour cela, on retrace l’évolution des modes de production et de distribution de ces derniers. C’est effectivement de la stratégie logistique que découle la conception de la chaîne intermodale. Partant de ce système, on identifie les caractéristiques fondamentales de l’intermodal. La thèse aboutit à dissiper les confusions liées à la qualification de l’intermodal et qui sont à la base des divergences d’interprétations et de l’incertitude juridique. De plus, elle met en exergue l’unité économique du contrat de transport intermodal qui devrait guider la fixation d’un régime de responsabilité dédié à ce système intégré de transport. Enfin, elle initie une approche ignorée des débats juridiques.
Resumo:
De récents développements en théorie de la decision ont largement enrichi notre connaissance de la notion d'incertitude knightienne, usuellement appelée ambiguïté. Néanmoins ces dévelopement tardent à être intégrés au coeur de la théorie économique. Nous suggérons que l'analyse de phénonèmes économiques tel que l'innovation et la Recherche et Développement gagnerait à intégrer les modèles de décision en situation d'ambiguïté. Nous étayons notre propos en analysant l'allocation des droits de propriété d'une découverte. Les deux premières parties de la présentation s'inspire d'un modèle d'Aghion et de Tirole, The Management of Innovation, portant sur l'allocation des droits de propriété entre une unité de recherche et un investisseur. Il est démontré qu'un désaccord entre les agents sur la technologie de recherche affecte leur niveau d'effort, l'allocation des droits de propriété et l'allocation des revenus subséquents. Finalement, nous examinons une situation où plusieurs chercheurs sont en compétition en s'inspirant du traitement de l'incertitude de Savage. La présence d'ambuïgité affecte le comportement des agents et l'allocation des droits de propriétés de manière qui n'est pas captée en assumant l'hypothèse de risque.
Resumo:
Despite the many models developed for phosphorus concentration prediction at differing spatial and temporal scales, there has been little effort to quantify uncertainty in their predictions. Model prediction uncertainty quantification is desirable, for informed decision-making in river-systems management. An uncertainty analysis of the process-based model, integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P), within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework is presented. The framework is applied to the Lugg catchment (1,077 km2), a River Wye tributary, on the England–Wales border. Daily discharge and monthly phosphorus (total reactive and total), for a limited number of reaches, are used to initially assess uncertainty and sensitivity of 44 model parameters, identified as being most important for discharge and phosphorus predictions. This study demonstrates that parameter homogeneity assumptions (spatial heterogeneity is treated as land use type fractional areas) can achieve higher model fits, than a previous expertly calibrated parameter set. The model is capable of reproducing the hydrology, but a threshold Nash-Sutcliffe co-efficient of determination (E or R 2) of 0.3 is not achieved when simulating observed total phosphorus (TP) data in the upland reaches or total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in any reach. Despite this, the model reproduces the general dynamics of TP and TRP, in point source dominated lower reaches. This paper discusses why this application of INCA-P fails to find any parameter sets, which simultaneously describe all observed data acceptably. The discussion focuses on uncertainty of readily available input data, and whether such process-based models should be used when there isn’t sufficient data to support the many parameters.
Resumo:
Patterns of communication and behaviour emerge within a construction project in response to a construction crisis. This paper investigates, within a grounded theory framework, the nature of these patterns, the sociological and psychological forces which shape them and their relationship with crisis management efficiency. A grounded theory is presented in four parts. The first part conceives a construction crisis as a period of social instability, arising from conflicting interest groups, seeking to exercise power in the pursuit of social structures which suit their political and economic interests. The second part sees a construction crisis as a de-sensitizing phenomenon which results in a period of behavioural instability and conflict which is self-perpetuating. The third part cites social structure as an important influence upon construction crisis management efficiency, in determining the efficiency of information flow, and the level of uncertainty between those affected. The fourth part points to the in-built defence mechanisms which construction crises have and to three managerial ironies which make construction crisis management difficult.
Resumo:
With uncertainty concerning the future of set-aside, over-wintering stubble is an attractive management option within the agri-environment scheme. Over-wintering stubbles could be included as part of rotational set-aside, benefiting farmland biodiversity. However, there is little research on managing stubbles to maximise weed seed loss, so farmers may be reluctant to adopt this option for fear of increased weed infestation. The purpose of this investigation is to develop effective management of over-wintering stubbles to minimise pernicious grass weeds in sequential crops, whilst maintaining beneficial species diversity. Research has focused on four annual grass-weeds (Alopecurus myosuroides, Anisantha sterilis, Bromus commutatus and Lolium multiflorum) of increased occurrence and/or resistance to herbicides. Hitherto, work has concentrated on the effects of stubble manipulation on weed seed germination and mortality, in particular by straw spreading or removal after harvest. The dynamics of artificially inoculated weed populations were monitored from harvest until early spring. Results obtained indicate that where straw is retained on the soil surface, it provides a favourable microclimate for seed depletion of Anisantha sterilis and Bromus commutatus through germination. Conversely, greater depletion of Alopecurus myosuroides and Lolium multiflorum seed occurred from stubbles in which a straw layer was absent. Seed recovery work provided evidence that most seeds remaining ungerminated throughout the trial period were still viable, but a large proportion of the seeds sown were unaccounted for. As these species are not generally favoured as a food source, the as yet unknown fate of these seeds has implications for subsequent grass-weed infestations.
Resumo:
Climate change is expected to produce reductions in water availability in England, potentially necessitating adaptive action by the water industry to maintain supplies. As part of Ofwat's fifth Periodic Review (PR09), water companies recently released their draft Water Resources Management Plans, setting out how each company intends to maintain the balance between the supply and demand for water over the next 25 years, following Environment Agency guidelines. This paper reviews these plans to determine company estimates of the impact of climate change on water supply relative to other resource pressures. The approaches adopted for incorporating the impact in the plans and the proposed management solutions are also identified. Climate change impacts for individual resource zones range from no reductions in deployable output to greater than 50% over the planning period. The estimated national aggregated loss of deployable output under a “core” climate scenario is ~520 Ml/d (3% of deployable output) by 2034/35, the equivalent of the supply of one entire water company (South West Water). Climate change is the largest single driver of change in water supplies over the planning period. Over half of the climate change impact is concentrated in southern England. In extreme cases, climate change uncertainty is of the same magnitude as the change under the core scenario (up to a loss of ~475 Ml/d). 44 of the 68 resource zones with available data are estimated to have a climate change impact. In 35 of these climate change has the greatest impact although in 10 zones sustainability reductions have a greater impact. Of the overall change in downward pressure on the supply-demand balance over the planning period, ~56% is accounted for by increased demand (620 Ml/d) and supply side climate change accounts for ~37% (407 Ml/d). Climate change impacts have a cumulative impact in concert with other changing supply side reducing components increasing the national pressure on the supply-demand balance. Whilst the magnitude of climate change appears to justify its explicit consideration, it is rare that adaptation options are planned solely in response to climate change but as a suite of options to provide a resilient supply to a range of pressures (including significant demand side pressures). Supply-side measures still tend to be considered by water companies to be more reliable than demand-side measures.
Resumo:
This paper reports on a survey of 17 value management exercises recently carried out within the UK construction industry. Twelve leading value management practitioners were asked to describe an example of a value management study which ‘worked well’ and one which ‘did not work well’. They were further asked to explain the underlying factors which they considered had influenced the eventual outcome of the value management study. The subsequent analysis of the interview transcripts reveals six recurring themes which were held to have had a significant influence: expectations, implementation, participation, power, time constraint and uncertainty. Whilst caution is necessary in extracting the themes from their individual contexts, they do provide a valuable insight into the factors which influence the outcome of value management studies.