Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.

Light-excited structural instability of a-Si : H.

With the accumulation of experimental data, it has been recognized by many that the light-induced metastable change of a-Si:H, Staebler-Wronski effect (SWE), may be related to a structural instability of the whole a-Si:H network. However, direct evidence of such a structural change is still lacking. In the present paper, the efforts of our laboratory in this direction will be reviewed, including the light-induced changes of Si-H bond absorption, low frequency dielectric response, and an apparent photo-dilation effect.

Structural phase transitions in low-dimensional ion crystals

A chain of singly charged particles, confined by a harmonic potential, exhibits a sudden transition to a zigzag configuration when the radial potential reaches a critical value, depending on the particle number. This structural change is a phase transition of second order, whose order parameter is the crystal displacement from the chain axis. We study analytically the transition using Landau theory and find full agreement with numerical predictions by Schiffer [Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 818 (1993)] and Piacente [Phys. Rev. B 69, 045324 (2004)]. Our theory allows us to determine analytically the system's behavior at the transition point.

Structural Breaks in Mortality Models and their Consequences

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of upmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies and the government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and, hence, life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data in order to anticipate future life expectancy and, hence, quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age and cohort, and forecast these trends into the future using standard statistical methods. The modeling approaches used failed to capture the effects of any structural change in the trend and, thus, potentially produced incorrect forecasts of future mortality rates. In this paper, we look at a range of leading stochastic models of mortality and test for structural breaks in the trend time series.

Temperature and Pressure Induced Structural Changes of Cobalt (II) in a Phosphonium Based Ionic Liquid

In this paper the temperature and pressure induced paramagnetic switching of cobalt (II) complex in binary mixture of phosphonium based ionic liquid [P6,6,6,14]SCN and [Co(NCS)2], is reported. This arises from a structural change in the coordination of the cobalt (II) center from tetrahedral [Co(NCS)4]2- to octahedral [Co(NCS)6]4- when mobile thiocyanate ions are added. These properties are reflected in the abrupt change of conductivity behavior of the magnetic ionic liquid. Therefore, as demonstrated herein the reversible switching in coordination of cobalt from tetrahedral to octahedral can be easily monitored at ambient as well as elevated pressure by tracking the dc-conductivity changes.

Assessment by doppler ultrasound of entheseal lesions in spondyloarthritis : a longitudial study to determine structural damage and disease activity lesions

RESUMO: Enthesitis is the hallmark of spondyloarthritis (SpA), and is observed in all subtypes. Wide information on SpA abnormalities, including synovitis, tendinitis and enthesitis, can be efficiently perceived by Doppler ultrasound. Furthermore, several studies on imaging of enthesis showed that imaging techniques are better than clinical examination to detect enthesis alterations; and vascularized enthesitis detected by Doppler ultrasound appears to be a valuable diagnostic tool to confirm SpA diagnosis. However, data published until now concerning entheseal elementary alterations that characterize SpA enthesitis (enthesis inflammatory activity) or enthesopathy (permanent structural changes) reflect rather the authors’ empiric opinion than a methodological validation process. In this sense it seems crucial to identify elementary entheseal lesions associated with activity or damage, in order to improve monitoring and treatment response in SpA patients. The development of better assessment tools is today a challenge and a need in SpA. The first study of this thesis focused on the analysis of the reliability of inter-lector and inter-ultrasonography equipment of Madrid sonography enthesitis index (MASEI). Fundamental data for the remaining unrolling project validity. In the second and third studies we concerned about two entheseal elemental lesions: erosions and bursa. In literature erosions represent a permanent structural damage, being useful for monitoring joint injury, disease activity and therapeutic response in many rheumatic diseases; and to date, this concept has been mostly applied in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Unquestionably, erosion is a tissue-related damage and a structural change. However, the hypothesis that we decided to test was if erosions represent a permanent structural change that can only grow and worsen over time, as occurs in RA, or a transitory alteration. A longitudinal study of early SpA patients was undertaken, and the Achilles enthesis was used as a model. Our results strongly suggested that previously detected erosions could disappear during the course of the disease, being consistent with the dynamic behavior of erosion over time. Based on these striking results it seems reasonable to suggest that the new-bone formation process in SpA could be associated with the resolution of cortical entheseal erosion over time. These results could also be in agreement with the apparent failure of anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapies to control bone proliferation in SpA; and with the relation of TNF-α, Dickkopf-related protein 1 (Dkk-1) and the regulatory molecule of the Wnt signaling pathway in the bone proliferation in SpA. In the same model, we then proceeded to study the enthesis bursa. Interestingly, the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology Clinical Trials (OMERACT) enthesopathy definition does not include bursa as an elementary entheseal lesion. Nonetheless, bursa was included in 46% of the enthesis studies in a recently systematic literature review, being in agreement with the concept of “synovio-entheseal complex” that includes the link between enthesitis and osteitis in SpA. It has been clarified in recent data that there is not only a close functional integration of the enthesis with the neighboring bone, but also a connection between enthesitis and synovitis. Therefore, we tried to assess the prevalence and relevance of the bursa-synovial lesion in SpA. Our findings showed a significant increase of Achilles bursa presence and thickness in SpA patients compared to controls (healthy/mechanical controls and RA controls). These results raise awareness to the need to improve the enthesopathy ultrasonographic definition. In the final work of this thesis, we have explored new perspectives, not previously reported, about construct validity of enthesis ultrasound as a possible activity outcome in SpA. We performed a longitudinal Achilles enthesis ultrasound study in patients with early SpA. Achilles ultrasound examinations were performed at baseline, six- and twelve-month time periods and compared with clinical outcome measures collected at basal visit. Our results showed that basal erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are higher in patients with Doppler signal in enthesis, and even that higher basal ESR, CRP and Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score (ASDAS) predicted a higher Doppler signal (an ultrasound alteration accepted as representative of inflammation) six months later. Patients with very high disease activity assessed by ASDAS (>3.5) at baseline had significantly higher Achilles total ultrasound score verified at the same time; and ASDAS <1.3 predicted no Doppler signal at six and twelve months. This seems to represent a connection between classical biomarkers and clinical outcomes associated with SpA activity and Doppler signal, not only at the same time, but also for the following months. Remarkably, patients with inactive disease (ASDAS < 1.3) at baseline had no Doppler signal at six and twelve months. These findings reinforce the potential use of ultrasound related techniques for disease progression assessment and prognosis purposes. Intriguingly, Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) didn’t show significant differences between different cut-offs concerning ultrasound lesions or Doppler signal, while verified with ASDAS. These results seem to indicate that ASDAS reflects better than BASDAI what happens in the enthesis. The work herein discussed clearly shows the potential utility of ultrasound in enthesis assessment in SpA patients, and can be important for the development of ultrasound activity and structural damage scores for diagnosis and monitoring purposes. Therefore, local promotion of this technique constitutes a medical intervention that is worth being tested in SpA patients for diagnosis, monitoring and prognosis purposes.

Essays on structural transformation, growth and education

This thesis aims to study the impact of structural change on the trajectory of development of emerging economies. More speci cally, we seek to understand how the reallocation of labor from less productive sectors of the economy (e.g., agriculture) to more productive sectors (e.g., industry and services) contributed to the growth of labor productivity in these economies. The thesis is divided into three chapters, besides the introduction. The rst chapter studies the relationship between structural change and economic development in Latin American economies. While the process of reallocation of labor was important to the dynamics of productivity in the period of convergence of these economies, low productivity in some sectors of the economy explained most of the reduction in productivity in the most recent period. In the second chapter, I study the main determinants of growth of the Chinese economy between 1980 and 2005. I show that the increased ow of trade and strong productivity growth in the agricultural sector contributed signi -cantly to China s development in the period. In the third chapter, I study the apparent contradiction between increased levels of schooling and reduction of per capita income in African economies compared to the U.S. economy. The main conclusion is that reducing educational costs explain the retreat of the education di¤erential between African economies and the United States.

Environmental regulation, technology adoption and structural transformation: evidence from Brazilian sugarcane industry

We estimate the effects of the adoption of mechanized agriculture led by a new environmental regulation on structural change of local labor markets within a large emerging country, Brazil. In 2002, the state of S\~{a}o Paulo passed a law outlying the timeline to end sugarcane pre-harvest burning in the state. The environmental law led to the fast adoption of mechanized harvest. We investigate if the labor intensity of sugarcane production decreases; and, if so, if it leads to structural changes in the labor market. We use satellite data containing the type of sugarcane harvesting -- manual or mechanic harvest -- paired with official labor market data.%, also geomorphometric data base for our instrumental variable correction. We find suggestive evidence that mechanization of the field led to an increase in utilization of formal workers and a reduction in formal labor intensity in the sugarcane sector. This is partially compensated by an increase in the share of workers in other agricultural crops and in the construction and services sector. Although we find a reduction in employment in the manufacturing sector, the demand generated by the new agro-industries affected positively the all sectors via an increase in workers' wage.

Structural, electronic structure and magnetic studies of GdFe1-xNixO3 (x <= 0.5)

The structural, electronic structure and magnetic properties of Ni doped GdFeO3 perovskite materials have been studied. A decreasing trend in volume with the increasing Ni concentration without any structural change is confirmed from X-ray diffraction studies. The electronic structural studies show that the competing ions within the ensemble have +3 oxidation states, which includes the Gd, Fe and Ni ions, and also confirms the octahedral symmetry of the Fe/Ni ions. The magnetic properties clearly depict that the Ni doping can tailor the phase transitions arising due to temperature/field dependence having a heavy impact on spin dynamics. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structural Health Monitoring in Smart Structures Through Time Series Analysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Photoinduced structural changes in antimony polyphosphate based glasses

A photocontraction effect in amorphous films of the binary glass system 0.20 [Sb(PO3)(3)](n)-0.80 Sb2O3 has been observed after UV irradiation using the 350.7 nm Kr+ ion laser line with 5.0 W/cm(2). Good optical quality films up to 4.0 mum were deposited on silica substrates at room temperature in vacuum by electron beam physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) and characterized using WDX, XRD, optical absorption, infrared reflectance, profilometry and atomic force microscopy (AFM) techniques. Very stable glasses were prepared by the melt quenching technique and used as evaporation source for the production of films. The photoinduced structural change (PSC) was observed as a variation of about 6% in the film thickness and this effect is accompanied by a photobleaching of the irradiated area with a blue shift of the optical absorption edge. Otherwise this photoinduced change in the film thickness is very sensitive to the variations in the shape and intensity of the laser beam; therefore several possibilities in optical recording arise from these results. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Determinants of structural heterogeneity in Mexican manufacturing industry, 1994-2008

Includes bibliography

Low-temperature structural effects in the (TMTSF)2PF6 and AsF6 Bechgaard salts

We present a detailed low-temperature investigation of the statics and dynamics of the anions and methyl groups in the organic conductors (TMTSF) 2PF6 and (TMTSF)2AsF6 (TMTSF: tetramethyl-tetraselenafulvalene). The 4 K neutron-scattering structure refinement of the fully deuterated (TMTSF)2PF6-D12 salt allows locating precisely the methyl groups at 4 K. This structure is compared to the one of the fully hydrogenated (TMTSF)2PF6-H12 salt previously determined at the same temperature. Surprisingly, it is found that deuteration corresponds to the application of a negative pressure of 5×102 MPa to the H12 salt. Accurate measurements of the Bragg intensity show anomalous thermal variations at low temperature both in the deuterated PF 6 and AsF6 salts. Two different thermal behaviors have been distinguished. Small Bragg-angle measurements reflect the presence of low-frequency modes at characteristic energies θE = 8.3 K and θE = 6.7 K for the PF6-D12 and AsF6-D12 salts, respectively. These modes correspond to the low-temperature methyl group motion. Large Bragg-angle measurements evidence an unexpected structural change around 55 K, which probably corresponds to the linkage of the anions to the methyl groups via the formation of F...D-CD2 bonds observed in the 4 K structural refinement. Finally we show that the thermal expansion coefficient of (TMTSF)2PF6 is dominated by the librational motion of the PF6 units. We quantitatively analyze the low-temperature variation of the lattice expansion via the contribution of Einstein oscillators, which allows us to determine for the first time the characteristic frequency of the PF6 librations: θE ≈ 50 K and θE = 76 K for the PF6-D12 and PF6-H12 salts, respectively. © 2013 American Physical Society.

Global integration, disarticulation and competitiveness in Mexico’s electromechanical sector: A structural analysis

This article analyses the dual functioning of the Mexican electromechanical sector between 1994 and 2008, as distinct from other globalized activities. An estimation of labour productivity in 52 industrial classes finds that structural heterogeneity increased particularly in the 1994-2001 subperiod, alongside technical and organizational improvements that were increasingly concentrated in a small number of subsidiary companies of transnational automotive-assembly enterprises. The application of a shift-share technique also revealed the absence of any significant structural change. Lastly, an extension of the methodology to evaluate competitiveness —developed by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (eclac)— and its application to a second database that reclassifies 1,345 foreign trade products, makes it possible to contrast these changes with the dynamism of the global production networks in which the leading firms of the sector in Mexico are engaged.

The Change from Red to White Meat: The Role of Technology

Since 1950, the composition of the U.S. meat diet has shifted markedly from red meats to poultry. For example, from 1970 to 1984, on a percapita basis, beef consumption has declined by 6.4 percent, while chicken and turkey consumptions have increased by 37.9, and 42.5 percent respectively (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1985). The numerous studies of this phenomenon from the demand side (Chavas, 1983; Braschler, 1983; Nyankori and Miller, 1982; Moschini and Meilke, 1984; Wohlgenant, 1985, Thurman, 1987; Chalfant and Alston, 1988) have failed to achieve a consensus as to whether a change in taste contributed to this shift. One reason for the lack of consensus is that the very large price and quantity changes make it difficult to establish whether consumers are on a new indifference map. But there have been no comparable studies of the nature and causes of the technological change that has made these large consumption and price changes possible. A decrease in the relative price of poultry with respect to red meat is in any case a major explanation of recent shifts in meat consumption patterns. The main reason for such a decrease appears to be a higher rate of technical progress in the poultry industry than in the red meat industry. Substantial productivity gains in both the production and marketing of poultry over the last two decades appears to have been translated into lower retail prices for poultry. Although some productivity gains have taken place in the red meat industry, they have not matched the cost reductions in the poultry industry (Chavas, 1987). Thus, a consumption shift from beef to poultry could possibly be interpreted as a response to changing relative prices, the structural change having occurred in the meat industry. This would imply that, if the beef industry desires to maintain or expand its market, it should seek a decrease in the production and marketing costs of beef.