Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

Randomised Evaluation of New Technologies within the Population‐Based Cervical Cancer Screening Programme in Finland: Cross‐Sectional Performance and Validity

A randomised and population-based screening design with new technologies has been applied to the organised cervical cancer screening programme in Finland. In this experiment the women invited to routine five-yearly screening are individually randomised to be screened with automation-assisted cytology, human papillomavirus (HPV) test or conventional cytology. By using the randomised design, the ultimate aim is to assess and compare the long-term outcomes of the different screening regimens. The primary aim of the current study was to evaluate, based on the material collected during the implementation phase of the Finnish randomised screening experiment, the cross-sectional performance and validity of automation-assisted cytology (Papnet system) and primary HPV DNA testing (Hybrid Capture II assay for 13 oncogenic HPV types) within service screening, in comparison to conventional cytology. The parameters of interest were test positivity rate, histological detection rate, relative sensitivity, relative specificity and positive predictive value. Also, the effect of variation in performance by screening laboratory on age-adjusted cervical cancer incidence was assessed. Based on the cross-sectional results, almost no differences were observed in the performance of conventional and automation-assisted screening. Instead, primary HPV screening found 58% (95% confidence interval 19-109%) more cervical lesions than conventional screening. However, this was mainly due to overrepresentation of mild- and moderate-grade lesions and, thus, is likely to result in overtreatment since a great deal of these lesions would never progress to invasive cancer. Primary screening with an HPV DNA test alone caused substantial loss in specificity in comparison to cytological screening. With the use of cytology triage test, the specificity of HPV screening improved close to the level of conventional cytology. The specificity of primary HPV screening was also increased by increasing the test positivity cutoff from the level recommended for clinical use, but the increase was more modest than the one gained with the use of cytology triage. The performance of the cervical cancer screening programme varied widely between the screening laboratories, but the variation in overall programme effectiveness between respective populations was more marginal from the very beginning of the organised screening activity. Thus, conclusive interpretations on the quality or success of screening should not be based on performance parameters only. In the evaluation of cervical cancer screening the outcome should be selected as closely as possible to the true measure of programme effectiveness, which is the number of invasive cervical cancers and subsequent deaths prevented in the target population. The evaluation of benefits and adverse effects of each new suggested screening technology should be performed before the technology becomes an accepted routine in the existing screening programme. At best, the evaluation is performed randomised, within the population and screening programme in question, which makes the results directly applicable to routine use.

Irritable bowel syndrome in the general population : epidemiology, comorbidity and societal costs

Background: Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a common functional gastrointestinal (GI) disorder characterised by abdominal pain and abnormal bowel function. It is associated with a high rate of healthcare consumption and significant health care costs. The prevalence and economic burden of IBS in Finland has not been studied before. The aims of this study were to assess the prevalence of IBS according to various diagnostic criteria and to study the rates of psychiatric and somatic comorbidity in IBS. In addition, health care consumption and societal costs of IBS were to be evaluated. Methods: The study was a two-phase postal survey. Questionnaire I identifying IBS by Manning 2 (at least two of the six Manning symptoms), Manning 3 (at least three Manning symptoms), Rome I, and Rome II criteria, was mailed to a random sample of 5 000 working age subjects. It also covered extra-GI symptoms such as headache, back pain, and depression. Questionnaire II, covering rates of physician visits, and use of GI medication, was sent to subjects fulfilling Manning 2 or Rome II IBS criteria in Questionnaire I. Results: The response rate was 73% and 86% for questionnaires I and II. The prevalence of IBS was 15.9%, 9.6%, 5.6%, and 5.1% according to Manning 2, Manning 3, Rome I, and Rome II criteria. Of those meeting Rome II criteria, 97% also met Manning 2 criteria. Presence of severe abdominal pain was more often reported by subjects meeting either of the Rome criteria than those meeting either of the Manning criteria. Presence of depression, anxiety, and several somatic symptoms was more common among subjects meeting any IBS criterion than by controls. Of subjects with depressive symptoms, 11.6% met Rome II IBS criteria compared to 3.7% of those with no depressiveness. Subjects meeting any IBS criteria made more physician visits than controls. Intensity of GI symptoms and presence of dyspeptic symptoms were the strongest predictors of GI consultations. Presence of dyspeptic symptoms and a history of abdominal pain in childhood also predicted non-GI visits. Annual GI related individual costs were higher in the Rome II group (497 ) than in the Manning 2 group (295 ). Direct expenses of GI symptoms and non GI physician visits ranged between 98M for Rome II and 230M for Manning 2 criteria. Conclusions: The prevalence of IBS varies substantially depending on the criteria applied. Rome II criteria are more restrictive than Manning 2, and they identify an IBS population with more severe GI symptoms, more frequent health care use, and higher individual health care costs. Subjects with IBS demonstrate high rates of psychiatric and somatic comorbidity regardless of health care seeking status. Perceived symptom severity rather than psychiatric comorbidity predicts health care seeking for GI symptoms. IBS incurs considerable medical costs. The direct GI and non-GI costs are equivalent to up to 5% of outpatient health care and medicine costs in Finland. A more integral approach to IBS by physicians, accounting also for comorbid conditions, may produce a more favourable course in IBS patients and reduce health care expenditures.

Interrelations of micro-organisms and mulberry II. Phyllosphere microflora and nitrogen fixation in leaf and root surfaces

The mulberry leaves were shown to harbour substantial populations of bacteria, streptomycetes, yeasts, and moulds. Azotobacter and Beijerinckia were observed to contribute to nearly 5 to 10 per cent of the bacterial population. When grown in water culture under sterile conditions, Azotobacter inoculation on the leaf or root surface was found to increase plant growth, dry wt, and nitrogen content of the mulberry. The beneficial effect of Azotobacter was largely influenced by the presence of a carbon source in the plant nutrient solution. The root inoculation in comparison to leaf application was found to confer greater benefits to the growing plant. The presence of carbohydrates and amino acids in the leaf leachates of mulberry was shown. The mutual beneficial nature of the association of the plant and Azotobacter has been brought to light.

Transposable elements in a marginal plant population

Background
How new forms arise in nature has engaged evolutionary biologists since Darwin's seminal treatise on the origin of species. Transposable elements (TEs) may be among the most important internal sources for intraspecific variability. Thus, we aimed to explore the temporal dynamics of several TEs in individual genotypes from a small, marginal population of Aegilops speltoides. A diploid cross-pollinated grass species, it is a wild relative of the various wheat species known for their large genome sizes contributed by an extraordinary number of TEs, particularly long terminal repeat (LTR) retrotransposons. The population is characterized by high heteromorphy and possesses a wide spectrum of chromosomal abnormalities including supernumerary chromosomes, heterozygosity for translocations, and variability in the chromosomal position or number of 45S and 5S ribosomal DNA (rDNA) sites. We propose that variability on the morphological and chromosomal levels may be linked to variability at the molecular level and particularly in TE proliferation.

Results
Significant temporal fluctuation in the copy number of TEs was detected when processes that take place in small, marginal populations were simulated. It is known that under critical external conditions, outcrossing plants very often transit to self-pollination. Thus, three morphologically different genotypes with chromosomal aberrations were taken from a wild population of Ae. speltoides, and the dynamics of the TE complex traced through three rounds of selfing. It was discovered that: (i) various families of TEs vary tremendously in copy number between individuals from the same population and the selfed progenies; (ii) the fluctuations in copy number are TE-family specific; (iii) there is a great difference in TE copy number expansion or contraction between gametophytes and sporophytes; and (iv) a small percentage of TEs that increase in copy number can actually insert at novel locations and could serve as a bona fide mutagen.

Conclusions
We hypothesize that TE dynamics could promote or intensify morphological and karyotypical changes, some of which may be potentially important for the process of microevolution, and allow species with plastic genomes to survive as new forms or even species in times of rapid climatic change.

Immediate hypersensitivity to Parthenium hysterophorus. II. Clinical studies on the prevalence of parthenium rhinitis

The airborne pollen of the South American weed, Parthenium hysterophorus (American feverfew), accidentally introduced into India was found to be responsible for severe allergic rhinitis. A random clinical survey conducted on 2035 residents of Bangalore city with the aid of questionnaires and skin tests revealed that 7.1% of the study population was suffering from allergic rhinitis due to exposure to Parthenium pollen. Skin-prick tests performed on 1294 clinic patients suffering from nasobronchial allergy during the past 4 years have also shown that 42.5% were sensitive to Parthenium pollen. IgE and IgG antibodies specific for Parthenium pollen allergens were demonstrable in the sera of Parthenium-sensitive rhinitis patients. The specificity of these antibodies to Parthenium allergens was established by ELISA. A 7- to 11-fold higher stimulation was observed when lymphocytes from two Parthenium-sensitive rhinitis patients were treated in vitro with Parthenium pollen extract. To our knowledge, nowhere in the world has such a high incidence of allergic rhinitis due to a single pollen ever been reported.

Intraspecific variation in brain size and architecture : population divergence and phenotypic plasticity

Brain size and architecture exhibit great evolutionary and ontogenetic variation. Yet, studies on population variation (within a single species) in brain size and architecture, or in brain plasticity induced by ecologically relevant biotic factors have been largely overlooked. Here, I address the following questions: (i) do locally adapted populations differ in brain size and architecture, (ii) can the biotic environment induce brain plasticity, and (iii) do locally adapted populations differ in levels of brain plasticity? In the first two chapters I report large variation in both absolute and relative brain size, as well as in the relative sizes of brain parts, among divergent nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) populations. Some traits show habitat-dependent divergence, implying natural selection being responsible for the observed patterns. Namely, marine sticklebacks have relatively larger bulbi olfactorii (chemosensory centre) and telencephala (involved in learning) than pond sticklebacks. Further, I demonstrate the importance of common garden studies in drawing firm evolutionary conclusions. In the following three chapters I show how the social environment and perceived predation risk shapes brain development. In common frog (Rana temporaria) tadpoles, I demonstrate that under the highest per capita predation risk, tadpoles develop smaller brains than in less risky situations, while high tadpole density results in enlarged tectum opticum (visual brain centre). Visual contact with conspecifics induces enlarged tecta optica in nine-spined sticklebacks, whereas when only olfactory cues from conspecifics are available, bulbus olfactorius become enlarged.Perceived predation risk results in smaller hypothalami (complex function) in sticklebacks. Further, group-living has a negative effect on relative brain size in the competition-adapted pond sticklebacks, but not in the predation-adapted marine sticklebacks. Perceived predation risk induces enlargement of bulbus olfactorius in pond sticklebacks, but not in marine sticklebacks who have larger bulbi olfactorii than pond fish regardless of predation. In sum, my studies demonstrate how applying a microevolutionary approach can help us to understand the enormous variation observed in the brains of wild animals a point-of-view which I high-light in the closing review chapter of my thesis.

Lopsidedness in WHISP galaxies II. Morphological lopsidedness

The distribution of stars and gas in many galaxies is asymmetric. This so-called lopsidedness is expected to significantly affect the dynamics and evolution of the disc, including the star formation activity. Here, we measure the degree of lopsidedness for the gas distribution in a selected sample of 70 galaxies from the Westerbork Hi Survey of Spiral and Irregular Galaxies. This complements our earlier work (Paper I) where the kinematic lopsidedness was derived for the same galaxies. The morphological lopsidedness is measured by performing a harmonic decomposition of the surface density maps. The amplitude of lopsidedness A(1), the fractional value of the first Fourier component, is typically quite high (about 0.1) within the optical disc and has a constant phase. Thus, lopsidedness is a common feature in galaxies and indicates a global mode. We measure A(1) out to typically one to four optical radii, sometimes even further. This is, on average, four times larger than the distance to which lopsidedness was measured in the past using near-IR as a tracer of the old stellar component, and therefore provides a new, more stringent constraint on the mechanism for the origin of lopsidedness. Interestingly, the value of A(1) saturates beyond the optical radius. Furthermore, the plot of A(1) versus radius shows fluctuations that we argue are due to local spiral features. We also try to explain the physical origin of this observed disc lopsidedness. No clear trend is found when the degree of lopsidedness is compared to a measure of the isolation or interaction probability of the sample galaxies. However, this does not rule out a tidal origin if the lopsidedness is long-lived. In addition, we find that the early-type galaxies tend to be more morphologically lopsided than the late-type galaxies. Both results together indicate that lopsidedness has a tidal origin.

Theoretical determination of HI vertical scale heights in the dwarf galaxies DDO 154, Ho II, IC 2574 and NGC 2366

In this paper, we model dwarf galaxies as a two-component system of gravitationally coupled stars and atomic hydrogen gas in the external force field of a pseudo-isothermal dark matter halo, and numerically obtain the radial distribution of HI vertical scale heights. This is done for a group of four dwarf galaxies (DDO 154, Ho II, IC 2574 and NGC 2366) for which most necessary input parameters are available from observations. The formulation of the equations takes into account the rising rotation curves generally observed in dwarf galaxies. The inclusion of self-gravity of the gas into the model at par with that of the stars results in scale heights that are smaller than what was obtained by previous authors. This is important as the gas scale height is often used for deriving other physical quantities. The inclusion of gas self-gravity is particularly relevant in the case of dwarf galaxies where the gas cannot be considered a minor perturbation to the mass distribution of the stars. We find that three out of four galaxies studied show a flaring of their HI discs with increasing radius, by a factor of a few within several disc scale lengths. The fourth galaxy has a thick HI disc throughout. This flaring arises as a result of the gas velocity dispersion remaining constant or decreasing only slightly while the disc mass distribution declines exponentially as a function of radius.

An operator-splitting Galerkin/SUPG finite element method for population balance equations : stability and convergence

We present a heterogeneous finite element method for the solution of a high-dimensional population balance equation, which depends both the physical and the internal property coordinates. The proposed scheme tackles the two main difficulties in the finite element solution of population balance equation: (i) spatial discretization with the standard finite elements, when the dimension of the equation is more than three, (ii) spurious oscillations in the solution induced by standard Galerkin approximation due to pure advection in the internal property coordinates. The key idea is to split the high-dimensional population balance equation into two low-dimensional equations, and discretize the low-dimensional equations separately. In the proposed splitting scheme, the shape of the physical domain can be arbitrary, and different discretizations can be applied to the low-dimensional equations. In particular, we discretize the physical and internal spaces with the standard Galerkin and Streamline Upwind Petrov Galerkin (SUPG) finite elements, respectively. The stability and error estimates of the Galerkin/SUPG finite element discretization of the population balance equation are derived. It is shown that a slightly more regularity, i.e. the mixed partial derivatives of the solution has to be bounded, is necessary for the optimal order of convergence. Numerical results are presented to support the analysis.

Nucleosynthesis in the accretion disks of type II collapsars

We investigate nucleosynthesis inside the gamma-ray burst (GRB) accretion disks formed by the Type II collapsars. In these collapsars, the core collapse of massive stars first leads to the formation of a proto-neutron star. After that, an outward moving shock triggers a successful supernova. However, the supernova ejecta lacks momentum and within a few seconds the newly formed neutron star gets transformed to a stellar mass black hole via massive fallback. The hydrodynamics of such an accretion disk formed from the fallback material of the supernova ejecta has been studied extensively in the past. We use these well-established hydrodynamic models for our accretion disk in order to understand nucleosynthesis, which is mainly advection dominated in the outer regions. Neutrino cooling becomes important in the inner disk where the temperature and density are higher. The higher the accretion rate (M) over dot is, the higher the density and temperature are in the disks. We deal with accretion disks with relatively low accretion rates: 0.001 M-circle dot s(-1) less than or similar to (M) over dot less than or similar to 0.01 M-circle dot s(-1) and hence these disks are predominantly advection dominated. We use He-rich and Si-rich abundances as the initial condition of nucleosynthesis at the outer disk, and being equipped with the disk hydrodynamics and the nuclear network code, we study the abundance evolution as matter inflows and falls into the central object. We investigate the variation in the nucleosynthesis products in the disk with the change in the initial abundance at the outer disk and also with the change in the mass accretion rate. We report the synthesis of several unusual nuclei like P-31, K-39, Sc-43, Cl-35 and various isotopes of titanium, vanadium, chromium, manganese and copper. We also confirm that isotopes of iron, cobalt, nickel, argon, calcium, sulphur and silicon get synthesized in the disk, as shown by previous authors. Much of these heavy elements thus synthesized are ejected from the disk via outflows and hence they should leave their signature in observed data.

Nucleosynthesis in the outflows associated with accretion disks of type II collapsars

We investigate nucleosynthesis inside the outflows from gamma-ray burst (GRB) accretion disks formed by the Type II collapsars. In these collapsars, massive stars undergo core collapse to form a proto-neutron star initially, and a mild supernova (SN) explosion is driven. The SN ejecta lack momentum, and subsequently this newly formed neutron star gets transformed to a stellar mass black hole via massive fallback. The hydrodynamics and the nucleosynthesis in these accretion disks have been studied extensively in the past. Several heavy elements are synthesized in the disk, and much of these heavy elements are ejected from the disk via winds and outflows. We study nucleosynthesis in the outflows launched from these disks by using an adiabatic, spherically expanding outflow model, to understand which of these elements thus synthesized in the disk survive in the outflow. While studying this, we find that many new elements like isotopes of titanium, copper, zinc, etc., are present in the outflows. Ni-56 is abundantly synthesized in most of the cases in the outflow, which implies that the outflows from these disks in a majority of cases will lead to an observable SN explosion. It is mainly present when outflow is considered from the He-rich, Ni-56/Fe-54-rich zones of the disks. However, outflow from the Si-rich zone of the disk remains rich in silicon. Although emission lines of many of these heavy elements have been observed in the X-ray afterglows of several GRBs by Chandra, BeppoSAX, XMM-Newton, etc., Swift seems to have not yet detected these lines.

A DYNAMO MODEL OF MAGNETIC ACTIVITY IN SOLAR-LIKE STARS WITH DIFFERENT ROTATIONAL VELOCITIES

We attempt to provide a quantitative theoretical explanation for the observations that Ca II H/K emission and X-ray emission from solar-like stars increase with decreasing Rossby number (i.e., with faster rotation). Assuming that these emissions are caused by magnetic cycles similar to the sunspot cycle, we construct flux transport dynamo models of 1M(circle dot) stars rotating with different rotation periods. We first compute the differential rotation and the meridional circulation inside these stars from a mean-field hydrodynamics model. Then these are substituted in our dynamo code to produce periodic solutions. We find that the dimensionless amplitude f(m) of the toroidal flux through the star increases with decreasing rotation period. The observational data can be matched if we assume the emissions to go as the power 3-4 of f(m). Assuming that the Babcock-Leighton mechanism saturates with increasing rotation, we can provide an explanation for the observed saturation of emission at low Rossby numbers. The main failure of our model is that it predicts an increase of the magnetic cycle period with increasing rotation rate, which is the opposite of what is found observationally. Much of our calculations are based on the assumption that the magnetic buoyancy makes the magnetic flux tubes rise radially from the bottom of the convection zone. Taking into account the fact that the Coriolis force diverts the magnetic flux tubes to rise parallel to the rotation axis in rapidly rotating stars, the results do not change qualitatively.

Epithelial atrophy in oral submucous fibrosis is mediated by copper (II) and arecoline of areca nut

Exposure of oral cavity to areca nut is associated with several pathological conditions including oral submucous fibrosis (OSF). Histopathologically OSF is characterized by epithelial atrophy, chronic inflammation, juxtaepithelial hyalinization, leading to fibrosis of submucosal tissue and affects 0.5% of the population in the Indian subcontinent. As the molecular mechanisms leading to atrophied epithelium and fibrosis are poorly understood, we studied areca nut actions on human keratinocyte and gingival fibroblast cells. Areca nut water extract (ANW) was cytotoxic to epithelial cells and had a pro-proliferative effect on fibroblasts. This opposite effect of ANW on epithelial and fibroblast cells was intriguing but reflects the OSF histopathology such as epithelial atrophy and proliferation of fibroblasts. We demonstrate that the pro-proliferative effects of ANW on fibroblasts are dependent on insulin-like growth factor signalling while the cytotoxic effects on keratinocytes are dependent on the generation of reactive oxygen species. Treatment of keratinocytes with arecoline which is a component of ANW along with copper resulted in enhanced cytotoxicity which becomes comparable to IC50 of ANW. Furthermore, studies using cyclic voltammetry, mass spectrometry and plasmid cleavage assay suggested that the presence of arecoline increases oxidation reduction potential of copper leading to enhanced cleavage of DNA which could generate an apoptotic response. Terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP Nick End Labeling assay and Ki-67 index of OSF tissue sections suggested epithelial apoptosis, which could be responsible for the atrophy of OSF epithelium.

Population age structure and private consumption in Spain

In this paper we study the effect of population age distribution upon private consumption expenditure in Spain from 1964 to 1997 using aggregate data. We obtain four main results. First, changes in the population pyramid have substantial effects upon the behaviour of private consumption. Second, the pattern of the coefficients of the demographic variables is not consistent with the simplest version of the life cycle hypothesis. Third, we estimate the impact of the demographic transition upon consumption and find positive values associated with episodes in which the shares of groups of individuals with expenditure levels higher (lower) than the mean increased (decreased). Fourth, the results are robust to alternative specifications for the population age distribution.