The War republics in the Donbas one year after the outbreak of the conflict. OSW Commentary Number 174, 17 June 2015

More than one year since the first pro-Russian moves in the Donbas, separatists have taken control of parts of the Donbas and Luhansk oblasts but are still unable to form truly functioning administrative structures. The exercise of power by the central administration of the so-called ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ (DPR) and ‘Luhansk People’s Republic’ (LPR) is restricted to resolving problems as they arise, while administration proper is the prerogative of the local authorities reporting to them which had been performing this function before the conflict broke out. The way the situation is developing and the fact that access to information is restricted make it difficult to determine the structure of the separatist government in more detail, precisely how it is organised, and what the internal hierarchy is like. The overriding goal of the governments of the DPR and the LPR is to maintain and develop their military potential. In effect, the lives of the so-called republics are subordinate to military goals. The Donbas separatism is a conglomerate of different groups of interests, with Russia at the fulcrum. Its representatives set the main tactical and strategic goals and thus have a decisive influence on the development of the situation in the region. Individual separatist groupings come into conflict, and some oligarchs linked to the former Party of Regions circles have also been making attempts to maintain their influence. The struggle between individual groups of interest is intensifying as the situation on the war front becomes calmer. Since the situation has temporarily stabilised after the seizure of Debaltseve, the central governments of the DPR and the LPR have made attempts to expand their influence, combating armed criminals who are outside their control and that of Russia. The civilian population is taking the brunt of the devastation caused by the war and the increasing militarisation of the region. Despite the fact that the intensity of the fighting on the war front is falling, worsening humanitarian problems are causing refugees to continue their flight from the territories controlled by the separatists. 2 million people have fled the conflict zone since the beginning of the war: 1.3 million of them have found shelter in other regions of Ukraine, and more than 700,000 have left for Russia. The region has also sustained great economic losses – most mines have been either destroyed or closed, many industrial plants have restricted or completely discontinued their production, and many firms have been taken over by force. In effect, the region has seen an economic downturn.

The Ukraine crisis and the demise of the European Security order. EPC Policy Brief, 1 December 2015

The annexation of Crimea by Russia and the subsequent war in the Donbas have delivered a severe blow to the European security order, and have increased tensions between the West and Russia to a level unprecedented since the end of the Cold War. In this context, it would be difficult to start negotiating a new commitment to the principles of the European security order. In this Policy Brief, Paul Ivan analyses the Ukraine crisis and its effect on European security and calls for the EU and NATO to stand firm on their own principles, but also to engage carefully with Russia to develop mechanisms to contain risks and avoid escalation and military confrontation, whether in Syria, the Baltic, the Mediterranean or the Black seas. The recent shooting down of a Russian jet by Turkish forces makes clear the need to prevent such incidents with potential rapid escalatory dynamics.

Nagorno-Karabakh and the arc of crises on Europe's borders. EPC Policy Brief, 3 February 2016

For more than two decades, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in a stalemate over the Nagorno-Karabakh. The protracted conflict remains the biggest impediment to security, stability and prosperity in the South Caucasus. The EU has put itself on the sidelines of the conflict resolution process, allowing the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group (MG), of which Russia, France and the US are co-chairs, to take centre stage. In this Policy Brief, Amanda Paul and Dennis Sammut argue that the EU should play a more active role in the conflict resolution process, taking the lead with innovative initiatives and using its soft power skills and experience. A recent review of the European Neighbourhood Policy recognises that protracted conflicts continue to hamper development in the region. This new approach now needs to be given substance, before the conflict further escalates and becomes another crisis on Europe’s border the already burdened Union cannot cope with.

A challenge for liberal democracy: How to understand the Russian intervention in Ukraine. Bertelsmann Policy Brief, 16.10.2014

The Russian intervention in Ukraine has provoked a deep crisis which will likely last for years, with profound consequences not only for Ukraine, Russia and Eastern Europe, but also for the internal situation in the European Union. The current Russian aggression is frequently seen as a profound violation of international law, breaking the rules that are fundamental for relations in Europe. It is perceived as perhaps a step towards rebuilding imperial Russia or, at the very least, an attempt to keep Ukraine within Russia’s sphere of influence. However, one very important aspect is virtually neglected, namely, that Russia’s Ukraine venture may have a significant impact on the future of liberal democracy in Europe and beyond.

Análisis de la estrategia de política exterior del Desarrollo Pacífico china en la construcción de su identidad dentro del grupo BRICS (2003-2014)

El interés de esta monografía es interpretar la manera en la que un Estado tiene la capacidad para transformar su identidad y proyectarla satisfactoriamente hacia otros actores. En el caso de China, esto sucede gracias a su estrategia de política exterior conocida como Desarrollo Pacífico, la cual forma parte de su relación con los miembros del grupo BRICS y ha ayudado a consolidar una tendencia hacia la cooperación. Para poder realizar una buena interpretación de la construcción de identidad china dentro del foro internacional BRICS es primordial realizar un acercamiento teórico constructivista que permite un entendimiento del proceso histórico que le ha permitido a China configurar su identidad en el marco de los BRICS, a partir de un proceso constante de interacción e identificación.

Apocalypse forever? International relations implications of 11 September

This is a contribution to ongoing discussion of the international relations issues raised by the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. It acknowledges apparent failings (of analysis or prediction) in the IR literature but then suggests the shortcomings are really the product of divergent traditions of analysis (behaviouralism, structuralism and evolutionism) which isolate different aspects of phenomena for attention. The paper then discusses the contrast between hard power and soft power - to help identify the distinctiveness of the new forms of terrorism (their non-linear objectives and the lack of proportionality involved). It concludes on an encouraging note by urging international cooperation as a solution, even in cases where the protagonists' resentments have tended to militate against conventional channels of dispute resolution.

A Exploração Aeroespacial no Âmbito da Segurança e da Defesa. O Caso da China

Dissertação de Mestrado em Ciência Política e Relações Internacionais Área de Especialização: Relações Internacionais

A ascenção dos BRICS: fim do momento unipolar?

Dissertação de Mestrado em Relações Internacionais

O poder da informação na política internacional: a wikileaks e a revolução na Tunísia

Dissertação apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência Política e Relações Internacionais

A perspectiva portuguesa do fórum para a cooperação económica e comercial entre a China e os países de língua portuguesa

Dissertação apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência Política e Relações Internacionais

A Influência da Exploração Espacial na Política Externa

Dissertação Mestrado em Ciência Política e Relações Internacionais

A Relevância que a Formação dada pelo Instituto Diplomático tem, na valorização da condução da Política Externa Portuguesa do Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros

Relatório de Estágio apresentado para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência Política e Relações Internacionais

A formação diplomática ministrada pelo Instituto Diplomático no contexto da diplomacia pública e no âmbito da Iniciativa 5+5

Serve o presente documento como registo descritivo da prossecução da componente não letiva do mestrado, por via de um estágio curricular realizado no Instituto Diplomático do Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros, cujo relatório aqui se apresenta. O presente relatório de estágio destina-se então não só a descrever as atividades desenvolvidas ao longo do estágio como também - após a definição dos seus conceitos estruturantes - a desenvolver a ideia de que a formação diplomática é ministrada como instrumento de diplomacia pública e não como ferramenta de soft power. Pretende-se, a propósito da I Reunião dos Diretores de Formação Diplomática no âmbito da Iniciativa 5+5, entender em que assenta esta nova parceria global euro-mediterrânica e os seus objetivos essenciais, as vantagens que poderão advir desta parceria para Portugal e especialmente para algumas unidades do Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiro, nomeadamente o IDI, no que respeita à formação diplomática, procurando ainda perceber o papel do IDI na área da diplomacia pública.

Diplomacia de Defesa: o Diálogo da Força ou a Força do Diálogo?

A Diplomacia de Defesa, apesar de existir com outros nomes e formas há já muitas décadas, só há relativamente pouco tempo lhe foi atribuída o espaço e o reconhecimento devido, quer em termos políticos, quer académicos. O presente trabalho pretende reconhecer o contributo da Diplomacia de Defesa para a concretização de importantes objetivos de política externa e apresentar uma definição que reflete não apenas a forma como é exercida mas, também, aquilo que realmente é: o emprego não violento de meios e recursos militares pelo Ministério da Defesa Nacional e pelas Forças Armadas, em atividades de cooperação com países aliados, parceiros e outros estrategicamente relevantes. O objetivo final da Diplomacia de Defesa não é apenas promover a cooperação bilateral e multilateral no âmbito da Defesa de uma forma altruísta, mas estabelecer parcerias benéficas do interesse dos países envolvidos e, nessa perspetiva, a Diplomacia de Defesa é uma aplicação direta de soft power. E porque o hard power gera soft power, a eficácia do soft power depende, evidentemente, da credibilidade do hard power. O uso da Diplomacia de Defesa como uma ferramenta da diplomacia já não deve ser, assim, uma escolha, mas uma componente necessária na análise das questões globais devendo ser reconhecida - e não temida - como um multiplicador de força de política externa.

Podem as nossas leis tornar-nos mais atrativos?

The concept of soft power offers the opportunity for the States, under the current power shifts, to thrive, in a competitive and globalised scene, shaping o t hers' preference in accordance with their goals. Portugal, though it i s a small country, has soft power skills, according with specialized rankings, due to i t s geography and climate, main economic activities, historical role, legal framework, culture and language. Therefore, we can and we should develop public policies to optimize our resources, converting them in planned outcomes. On the other hand, public entities engaged with foreign trade, investment and tour ism, aid f or development, promotion of culture and language should be structured in or-der to strengthen the performance of Portugal in this area. Being a member of the European Union or of the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries is, at last, essential to expand our global presence. In this Master's work project, I decided to make a critical analysis of legislation related with public diplomacy i n Portugal, together wi th research about the approach of two other countries (United Kingdom and Finland) to the same topic, for the sake of improvement.