Metas para inflação e taxa de juros no Brasil: uma análise do efeito dos preços livres e administrados

After surpassed more than half a decade since the adoption of inflation targeting in Brazil, it can be seen that maintaining a high interest rate is inherent to the strategy for the conduction of the monetary policy. The objective of this paper is to show that the present policy for defining the basic interest rate of the economy, based on the response to inflation considering both market and administered prices, is onerous for the Brazilian society. Based on findings from empirical evidence in the period 1999-2004, the adoption of a core inflation, a change in the time horizon for definition of targets, and, in common agreement between Banco Central do Brasil and National Treasury, a definition of these inflation targets, as a framework to increase efficiency of the monetary regime, creates possibilities for proposing a reduction on the Selic rate.

Metas inflacionárias: a análise convencional e um modelo alternativo

Inflation targeting: the conventional analysis and an alternative model. This article has two aims: the first one is to present a formal model of the monetary policy identified generally as "inflation targeting policy", an instrument of intervention of the central bank, through the short run nominal interest rate. The second aim is to discuss and criticize the theoretical assumptions of the model specially the concepts of "natural rate of interest" and of potential product presented by the "augmented Philips curve"; and to present a more realistic control of inflation targeting which does not assume the hypotheses above, and in which inflation targeting is based on the control of real rate of interest.

Metas de inflação em perspectiva: a influência do trinômio reputação-credibilidade-transparência sobre a economia

Although inflation target regime seeks to serve as a reference for the expectation formation process of the agents, its implementation does not necessarily imply the acquisition or the best result in terms of economic growth. The present article aims the development of a model that explains, by firms' investment decisions, the product path behavior, undertaking monetary authority may present distinct situations associated with the reputation-credibility-transparency trinomial. The article also detaches different kinds of reputation and its degrees.

Metas de inflação, política monetária e investimento: um estudo para dezessete países

In this paper two hypotheses about the relationship between monetary policy and investment in the context of the inflation target system were tested. One of these hypotheses is based on the idea of neutrality of money, and the other hypothesis is based on the reject of that idea. An investment equation for seventeen economies using a piece-wise dummy variable was estimated by the Methodology of Panel Data. The results highlight that a negative correlation between current expectation of restrictive monetary policy and current investment rose after the inflation target system implementation.

Metas de inflação: lições da era Greenspan

This paper approaches the experience of monetary policy in the Greenspan period and suggests what lessons could be learnt. The adoption of inflation targeting would denote a step backward in the policymaking process in the USA, for, since the 1980s, a distinctive feature is flexibility of response to adjust to unexpected events and changing environments. The Fed was able to exercise an informed judgement in critical situations and this opens the case for the importance of not restraining policymakers' actions through the adoption of tight rules. Furthermore, that the various experiences with inflation targeting are indisputably huge successes, and that this framework represents the state of the art (therefore nothing else can alternatively be done), remains to be seen.

Juros, câmbio e o sistema de metas de inflação no Brasil

Interest rate, exchange rate and the system of inflation target in Brazil. In the consensus view of the Brazilian system of inflation targeting, the core of inflation is due to demand shocks; the rate of interest is set to control demand; and some variation in the exchange rate happens as "collateral damage". In this note we argue that in reality core inflation comes from cost push; the interest rate affects the exchange rate; changes in the exchange rate affect costs and prices; it is the effect of interest rates on demand that is the "collateral damage" and that the long run anchor of the system is low average real wage rigidity.

Metas de inflação, taxa de câmbio real e crise externa num modelo kaleckiano

Inflation target, real exchange rate and external crisis in a Kaleckian model. Which role should the real exchange rate play in an inflation target regime? In this paper this point is discussed from the point of view of the conditions required for avoiding an external crisis. With this objective, a dynamic Kaleckian model is presented focusing on the stability of the external debt to capital ratio. The main conclusion is that policy makers should monitor closely the evolution of the real exchange rate in order to make compatible the inflation target regime with external stability.

Metas de inflação, regra de Taylor e neutralidade da moeda: uma crítica pós-keynesiana

Inflation targeting, Taylor rule and money neutrality: a post-Keynesian critic. This paper critically discusses the inflation targeting regime proposed by orthodox economists, in particular the Taylor Rule. The article describes how the Taylor Rule assumes the argument of money neutrality inherited from the Quantitative Theory of Money. It discusses critically the ways of operation of the rule, and the negative impacts of the interest rate over the potential output. In this sense, the article shows the possible vicious circles of the monetary policy when money is not neutral, as is the case for post-keynesian economists. The relation of interest rates, potential output and the output gap is illustrated in some estimates using the methodology of Vector Auto-Regressive in the Brazilian case.

Metas

Desarrollo empresarial y creación de empresa

Un modelo de programación por metas para distribución de recursos académicos

Tesis (Maestría en Ciencias de la Administración) U.A.N.L.

Los estudiantes de la licenciatura en Ciencias de la Actividad Física y el Deporte : preferencias personales y profesionales entorno a la Educación Física escolar y al entrenamiento deportivo : orientaciones de metas disposicionales y satisfacción en las clases prácticas.

a) Describir las preferencias y opiniones de los alumnos/as de segundo ciclo de la licenciatura en Ciencias de la Actividad Física y Deporte (C.A.F.D.) sobre su futuro profesional y sobre sus experiencias en el ámbito de la enseñanza y el entrenamiento deportivo en particular; b) Analizar la orientación de los alumnos/as de segundo ciclo de la licenciatura en C.A.F.D en las clases prácticas y determinar el tipo de la misma: al ego o a la tarea; c) Conocer los motivos de satisfacción con los resultados deportivos en las clases prácticas que los alumnos de segundo ciclo de la licenciatura en C.A.F.D. manifiestan; d) Relacionar el sexo y algunas preferencias personales sobre la profesión con la orientación de meta disposicional y con los motivos de satisfacción en las clases prácticas de los alumnos/as de segundo ciclo. 101 estudiantes (69 varones y 32 mujeres) de la licenciatura en Ciencias de la Actividad Física y del Deporte de la Universidad de León, pertenecientes al segundo ciclo de la titulación (cuarto y quinto curso) en el año académico 2003/2004. Las variables de estudio se adscriben a dos grupos: a) Variables dependientes: orientación de meta disposicional en las clases prácticas y satisfacción con los resultados deportivos en las clases prácticas; b) Variables independientes: sexo y salida profesional preferentes entre docencia-entrenamiento. Los instrumentos utilizados fueron: a) Cuestionario de percepción de éxito (POSQ) compuesto por 12 ítems que miden la orientación a la tarea y la orientación al ego; y b) Cuestionario de satisfacción con resultados deportivos (CSRD) compuesto por 11 ítems que miden el éxito normativo, las experiencias de maestría y la aprobación social. Además de estos dos instrumentos, para la recogida de información relacionada con las características de la muestra y sus preferencias profesionales y personales entorno a la Educación Física y Escolar y al Entrenamiento Deportivo, se elaboró una encuesta compuesta por 8 ítems. El análisis de los datos se llevo a cabo mediante el paquete informático SPSS 11.00 para Windows. Se obtienen estadísticos descriptivos, se calculan los valores correlacionales entre variables dependientes y se realiza un análisis de varianza ANOVA entre todas las variables. a) Los estudiantes que se orientan al ego en las clases prácticas manifiestan un tipo de satisfacción con los resultados basados en el éxito normativo; b) Los estudiantes que se orientan a la tarea en las clases prácticas manifiestan un tipo de satisfacción con los resultados deportivos basados en experiencias de maestría; c) Tanto los estudiantes que se orientan al ego como los que se orientan a la tarea manifiestan un tipo de satisfacción con los resultados deportivos basados en la aprobación social; d) No existen diferencias significativas entre los estudiantes que se orientan al ego y los que se orientan a la tarea en las clases prácticas en lo que a la preferencia profesional entre docencia y entrenamiento se refiere; e) No existen diferencias significativas entre los estudiantes que se orientan al ego y los que se orientan a la tarea en las clases prácticas en lo que se refiere a diferencias entre varones y mujeres; f) Se hace necesaria más investigación específica en este ámbito para mostrar cómo las variables sexo y preferencia docencia-entrenamiento se relacionan con las diferentes motivacionales existentes en los estudiantes de la licenciatura de Ciencias de la Actividad Física y del Deporte.

Autodeterminaci??n y metas sociales : un modelo estructural para comprender la intenci??n de pr??ctica, el esfuerzo y el aburrimiento en Educaci??n F??sica

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Metas sociales y de logro, persistencia-esfuerzo e intenciones de pr??ctica deportiva en el alumnado de Educaci??n F??sica

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n. Resumen tambi??n en ingl??s

Youth sport dropout from the achievement goal theory. 'El abandono del deporte en j??venes desde la Teor??a de las metas de logro'

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n. Resumen tambi??n en ingl??s