Aplicación de la metodología ISA al análisis de la secuencia de pérdida del sistema de agua de refrigeración de componentes en una central nuclear con reactor de agua a presión

La metodología Integrated Safety Analysis (ISA), desarrollada en el área de Modelación y Simulación (MOSI) del Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear (CSN), es un método de Análisis Integrado de Seguridad que está siendo evaluado y analizado mediante diversas aplicaciones impulsadas por el CSN; el análisis integrado de seguridad, combina las técnicas evolucionadas de los análisis de seguridad al uso: deterministas y probabilistas. Se considera adecuado para sustentar la Regulación Informada por el Riesgo (RIR), actual enfoque dado a la seguridad nuclear y que está siendo desarrollado y aplicado en todo el mundo. En este contexto se enmarcan, los proyectos Safety Margin Action Plan (SMAP) y Safety Margin Assessment Application (SM2A), impulsados por el Comité para la Seguridad de las Instalaciones Nucleares (CSNI) de la Agencia de la Energía Nuclear (NEA) de la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económicos (OCDE) en el desarrollo del enfoque adecuado para el uso de las metodologías integradas en la evaluación del cambio en los márgenes de seguridad debidos a cambios en las condiciones de las centrales nucleares. El comité constituye un foro para el intercambio de información técnica y de colaboración entre las organizaciones miembro, que aportan sus propias ideas en investigación, desarrollo e ingeniería. La propuesta del CSN es la aplicación de la metodología ISA, especialmente adecuada para el análisis según el enfoque desarrollado en el proyecto SMAP que pretende obtener los valores best-estimate con incertidumbre de las variables de seguridad que son comparadas con los límites de seguridad, para obtener la frecuencia con la que éstos límites son superados. La ventaja que ofrece la ISA es que permite el análisis selectivo y discreto de los rangos de los parámetros inciertos que tienen mayor influencia en la superación de los límites de seguridad, o frecuencia de excedencia del límite, permitiendo así evaluar los cambios producidos por variaciones en el diseño u operación de la central que serían imperceptibles o complicados de cuantificar con otro tipo de metodologías. La ISA se engloba dentro de las metodologías de APS dinámico discreto que utilizan la generación de árboles de sucesos dinámicos (DET) y se basa en la Theory of Stimulated Dynamics (TSD), teoría de fiabilidad dinámica simplificada que permite la cuantificación del riesgo de cada una de las secuencias. Con la ISA se modelan y simulan todas las interacciones relevantes en una central: diseño, condiciones de operación, mantenimiento, actuaciones de los operadores, eventos estocásticos, etc. Por ello requiere la integración de códigos de: simulación termohidráulica y procedimientos de operación; delineación de árboles de sucesos; cuantificación de árboles de fallos y sucesos; tratamiento de incertidumbres e integración del riesgo. La tesis contiene la aplicación de la metodología ISA al análisis integrado del suceso iniciador de la pérdida del sistema de refrigeración de componentes (CCWS) que genera secuencias de pérdida de refrigerante del reactor a través de los sellos de las bombas principales del circuito de refrigerante del reactor (SLOCA). Se utiliza para probar el cambio en los márgenes, con respecto al límite de la máxima temperatura de pico de vaina (1477 K), que sería posible en virtud de un potencial aumento de potencia del 10 % en el reactor de agua a presión de la C.N. Zion. El trabajo realizado para la consecución de la tesis, fruto de la colaboración de la Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Minas y Energía y la empresa de soluciones tecnológicas Ekergy Software S.L. (NFQ Solutions) con el área MOSI del CSN, ha sido la base para la contribución del CSN en el ejercicio SM2A. Este ejercicio ha sido utilizado como evaluación del desarrollo de algunas de las ideas, sugerencias, y los algoritmos detrás de la metodología ISA. Como resultado se ha obtenido un ligero aumento de la frecuencia de excedencia del daño (DEF) provocado por el aumento de potencia. Este resultado demuestra la viabilidad de la metodología ISA para obtener medidas de las variaciones en los márgenes de seguridad que han sido provocadas por modificaciones en la planta. También se ha mostrado que es especialmente adecuada en escenarios donde los eventos estocásticos o las actuaciones de recuperación o mitigación de los operadores pueden tener un papel relevante en el riesgo. Los resultados obtenidos no tienen validez más allá de la de mostrar la viabilidad de la metodología ISA. La central nuclear en la que se aplica el estudio está clausurada y la información relativa a sus análisis de seguridad es deficiente, por lo que han sido necesarias asunciones sin comprobación o aproximaciones basadas en estudios genéricos o de otras plantas. Se han establecido tres fases en el proceso de análisis: primero, obtención del árbol de sucesos dinámico de referencia; segundo, análisis de incertidumbres y obtención de los dominios de daño; y tercero, cuantificación del riesgo. Se han mostrado diversas aplicaciones de la metodología y ventajas que presenta frente al APS clásico. También se ha contribuido al desarrollo del prototipo de herramienta para la aplicación de la metodología ISA (SCAIS). ABSTRACT The Integrated Safety Analysis methodology (ISA), developed by the Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear (CSN), is being assessed in various applications encouraged by CSN. An Integrated Safety Analysis merges the evolved techniques of the usually applied safety analysis methodologies; deterministic and probabilistic. It is considered as a suitable tool for assessing risk in a Risk Informed Regulation framework, the approach under development that is being adopted on Nuclear Safety around the world. In this policy framework, the projects Safety Margin Action Plan (SMAP) and Safety Margin Assessment Application (SM2A), set up by the Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) of the Nuclear Energy Agency within the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), were aimed to obtain a methodology and its application for the integration of risk and safety margins in the assessment of the changes to the overall safety as a result of changes in the nuclear plant condition. The committee provides a forum for the exchange of technical information and cooperation among member organizations which contribute their respective approaches in research, development and engineering. The ISA methodology, proposed by CSN, specially fits with the SMAP approach that aims at obtaining Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty values of the safety variables to be compared with the safety limits. This makes it possible to obtain the exceedance frequencies of the safety limit. The ISA has the advantage over other methods of allowing the specific and discrete evaluation of the most influential uncertain parameters in the limit exceedance frequency. In this way the changes due to design or operation variation, imperceptibles or complicated to by quantified by other methods, are correctly evaluated. The ISA methodology is one of the discrete methodologies of the Dynamic PSA framework that uses the generation of dynamic event trees (DET). It is based on the Theory of Stimulated Dynamics (TSD), a simplified version of the theory of Probabilistic Dynamics that allows the risk quantification. The ISA models and simulates all the important interactions in a Nuclear Power Plant; design, operating conditions, maintenance, human actuations, stochastic events, etc. In order to that, it requires the integration of codes to obtain: Thermohydraulic and human actuations; Even trees delineation; Fault Trees and Event Trees quantification; Uncertainty analysis and risk assessment. This written dissertation narrates the application of the ISA methodology to the initiating event of the Loss of the Component Cooling System (CCWS) generating sequences of loss of reactor coolant through the seals of the reactor coolant pump (SLOCA). It is used to test the change in margins with respect to the maximum clad temperature limit (1477 K) that would be possible under a potential 10 % power up-rate effected in the pressurized water reactor of Zion NPP. The work done to achieve the thesis, fruit of the collaborative agreement of the School of Mining and Energy Engineering and the company of technological solutions Ekergy Software S.L. (NFQ Solutions) with de specialized modeling and simulation branch of the CSN, has been the basis for the contribution of the CSN in the exercise SM2A. This exercise has been used as an assessment of the development of some of the ideas, suggestions, and algorithms behind the ISA methodology. It has been obtained a slight increase in the Damage Exceedance Frequency (DEF) caused by the power up-rate. This result shows that ISA methodology allows quantifying the safety margin change when design modifications are performed in a NPP and is specially suitable for scenarios where stochastic events or human responses have an important role to prevent or mitigate the accidental consequences and the total risk. The results do not have any validity out of showing the viability of the methodology ISA. Zion NPP was retired and information of its safety analysis is scarce, so assumptions without verification or approximations based on generic studies have been required. Three phases are established in the analysis process: first, obtaining the reference dynamic event tree; second, uncertainty analysis and obtaining the damage domains; third, risk quantification. There have been shown various applications of the methodology and advantages over the classical PSA. It has also contributed to the development of the prototype tool for the implementation of the ISA methodology (SCAIS).

Characterization of spatial–temporal patterns in dynamic speckle sequences using principal component analysis

Abstract. Speckle is being used as a characterization tool for the analysis of the dynamics of slow-varying phenomena occurring in biological and industrial samples at the surface or near-surface regions. The retrieved data take the form of a sequence of speckle images. These images contain information about the inner dynamics of the biological or physical process taking place in the sample. Principal component analysis (PCA) is able to split the original data set into a collection of classes. These classes are related to processes showing different dynamics. In addition, statistical descriptors of speckle images are used to retrieve information on the characteristics of the sample. These statistical descriptors can be calculated in almost real time and provide a fast monitoring of the sample. On the other hand, PCA requires a longer computation time, but the results contain more information related to spatial–temporal patterns associated to the process under analysis. This contribution merges both descriptions and uses PCA as a preprocessing tool to obtain a collection of filtered images, where statistical descriptors are evaluated on each of them. The method applies to slow-varying biological and industrial processes.

An evolutive approach for the delineation of local labour markets

This paper presents a new approach to the delineation of local labour markets based on evolutionary computation. The main objective is the regionalisation of a given territory into functional regions based on commuting flows. According to the relevant literature, such regions are defined so that (a) their boundaries are rarely crossed in daily journeys to work, and (b) a high degree of intra-area movement exists. This proposal merges municipalities into functional regions by maximizing a fitness function that measures aggregate intra-region interaction under constraints of inter-region separation and minimum size. Real results are presented based on the latest database from the Census of Population in the Region of Valencia. Comparison between the results obtained through the official method which currently is most widely used (that of British Travel-to-Work Areas) and those from our approach is also presented, showing important improvements in terms of both the number of different market areas identified that meet the statistical criteria and the degree of aggregate intra-market interaction.

The role of organoclay in promoting co-continuous morphology in high-density poly(ethylene)/poly(amide) 6 blends

The effect of organically modified clay on the morphology, rheology and mechanical properties of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and polyamide 6 (PA6) blends (HDPE/PA6 = 75/25 parts) is studied. Virgin and filled blends were prepared by melt compounding the constituents using a twin-screw extruder. The influence of the organoclay on the morphology of the hybrid was deeply investigated by means of wide-angle X-ray diffractometry, transmission and scanning electron microscopies and quantitative extraction experiments. It has been found that the organoclay exclusively places inside the more hydrophilic polyamide phase during the melt compounding. The extrusion process promotes the formation of highly elongated and separated organoclay-rich PA6 domains. Despite its low volume fraction, the filled minor phase eventually merges once the extruded pellets are melted again, giving rise to a co-continuous microstructure. Remarkably, such a morphology persists for long time in the melt state. A possible compatibilizing action related to the organoclay has been investigated by comparing the morphology of the hybrid blend with that of a blend compatibilized using an ethylene–acrylic acid (EAA) copolymer as a compatibilizer precursor. The former remains phase separated, indicating that the filler does not promote the enhancement of the interfacial adhesion. The macroscopic properties of the hybrid blend were interpreted in the light of its morphology. The melt state dynamics of the materials were probed by means of linear viscoelastic measurements. Many peculiar rheological features of polymer-layered silicate nanocomposites based on single polymer matrix were detected for the hybrid blend. The results have been interpreted proposing the existence of two distinct populations of dynamical species: HDPE not interacting with the filler, and a slower species, constituted by the organoclay-rich polyamide phase, which slackened dynamics stabilize the morphology in the melt state. In the solid state, both the reinforcement effect of the filler and the co-continuous microstructure promote the enhancement of the tensile modulus. Our results demonstrate that adding nanoparticles to polymer blends allows tailoring the final properties of the hybrid, potentially leading to high-performance materials which combine the advantages of polymer blends and the merits of polymer nanocomposites.

Shared action spaces:a basis function framework for social re-calibration of sensorimotor representations supporting joint action

The article explores the possibilities of formalizing and explaining the mechanisms that support spatial and social perspective alignment sustained over the duration of a social interaction. The basic proposed principle is that in social contexts the mechanisms for sensorimotor transformations and multisensory integration (learn to) incorporate information relative to the other actor(s), similar to the "re-calibration" of visual receptive fields in response to repeated tool use. This process aligns or merges the co-actors' spatial representations and creates a "Shared Action Space" (SAS) supporting key computations of social interactions and joint actions; for example, the remapping between the coordinate systems and frames of reference of the co-actors, including perspective taking, the sensorimotor transformations required for lifting jointly an object, and the predictions of the sensory effects of such joint action. The social re-calibration is proposed to be based on common basis function maps (BFMs) and could constitute an optimal solution to sensorimotor transformation and multisensory integration in joint action or more in general social interaction contexts. However, certain situations such as discrepant postural and viewpoint alignment and associated differences in perspectives between the co-actors could constrain the process quite differently. We discuss how alignment is achieved in the first place, and how it is maintained over time, providing a taxonomy of various forms and mechanisms of space alignment and overlap based, for instance, on automaticity vs. control of the transformations between the two agents. Finally, we discuss the link between low-level mechanisms for the sharing of space and high-level mechanisms for the sharing of cognitive representations. © 2013 Pezzulo, Iodice, Ferraina and Kessler.

Vernaculares: a casa de fazenda seridoense do século XIX como exemplo de adaptação ao clima semiárido

The farm’s rural dwellings of creation from the Seridó Potiguar microregion, built in the nineteenth century, became a reference by its vernacular character, i.e. these buildings, besides having recognized relevance to the identity of the region, they are adapted to the conditions of the place in many aspects (economic, cultural, construction, physical, et.) and consist in protective spaces in relation to hostile characteristics of Seridó’s climate. Considering the above premise, the following question arises: What characteristics of the nineteenth century Seridó Potiguar’s cattle farms are crucial for them to be a protective space in relation to the semiarid climate? In order to answer the question, this research aim to identify which particularities of the Seridó’s farmhouses that contribute to adaptability in these buildings to semiarid climate, as protection environments; and contribute to the stock valuation of the architectural heritage concerned. Therefore, procedures were adopted divided into two stages. Were first identified the recurring characteristics in the studied buildings, through typological study performed from existing inventories (DINIZ, 2008; FEIJÓ, 2002; IPHAN, 2012). To define the type it worked up with the concept that merges Durand’s analytical typology that identifies the similarities and differences to classify buildings, having the character of historical survey and architectural documentation, with the definition proposed by Argan (1963) that the type is not defined a priory, but the deduction from a number of illustrative cases which have formal and functional similarity with each other. Then worked up in a sample of five different types with each other, defined by the possibility of access to the interior of the houses, proximity to other copies, good state of conservation and preservation. The contemplated farms were: Pitombeiras, Agenus e Garrotes in Acari’s town, and the municipality of Caicó, Palma and Penedo. The second stage consists of the architectural survey, photographic record, digital three-dimensional modeling (aiming to expand the existing documentation and registration) and thermal monitoring over approximately a representative day in five farmhouses, relating the thermal performance of the houses with their individual characteristics. The selected variables for analysis monitoring are based on the thermal comfort adaptive model (SPAGNOLO and DE DEAR, 2003 apud NEGREIROS, 2010). The characteristics of the houses were analyzed as meeting the passive thermal conditioning strategies recommended by NBR 15220 (ABNT, 2005), for the bioclimatic zone 7 where the municipalities of Caicó and Acari are located. The house’s analysis of the operating temperatures revealed that 90% of the times of day the environments are within the comfort range. The farmhouses, which had a higher degree of compliance with recommended bioclimatic strategies, had the best thermal performance. In environments (usually the kitchen and rooms with low ceiling heights, exposed to west radiation) which still had discomfort hours, the thermal comfort can be reached with air movement approximately 1,0 m/s.

Vernaculares: a casa de fazenda seridoense do século XIX como exemplo de adaptação ao clima semiárido

The farm’s rural dwellings of creation from the Seridó Potiguar microregion, built in the nineteenth century, became a reference by its vernacular character, i.e. these buildings, besides having recognized relevance to the identity of the region, they are adapted to the conditions of the place in many aspects (economic, cultural, construction, physical, et.) and consist in protective spaces in relation to hostile characteristics of Seridó’s climate. Considering the above premise, the following question arises: What characteristics of the nineteenth century Seridó Potiguar’s cattle farms are crucial for them to be a protective space in relation to the semiarid climate? In order to answer the question, this research aim to identify which particularities of the Seridó’s farmhouses that contribute to adaptability in these buildings to semiarid climate, as protection environments; and contribute to the stock valuation of the architectural heritage concerned. Therefore, procedures were adopted divided into two stages. Were first identified the recurring characteristics in the studied buildings, through typological study performed from existing inventories (DINIZ, 2008; FEIJÓ, 2002; IPHAN, 2012). To define the type it worked up with the concept that merges Durand’s analytical typology that identifies the similarities and differences to classify buildings, having the character of historical survey and architectural documentation, with the definition proposed by Argan (1963) that the type is not defined a priory, but the deduction from a number of illustrative cases which have formal and functional similarity with each other. Then worked up in a sample of five different types with each other, defined by the possibility of access to the interior of the houses, proximity to other copies, good state of conservation and preservation. The contemplated farms were: Pitombeiras, Agenus e Garrotes in Acari’s town, and the municipality of Caicó, Palma and Penedo. The second stage consists of the architectural survey, photographic record, digital three-dimensional modeling (aiming to expand the existing documentation and registration) and thermal monitoring over approximately a representative day in five farmhouses, relating the thermal performance of the houses with their individual characteristics. The selected variables for analysis monitoring are based on the thermal comfort adaptive model (SPAGNOLO and DE DEAR, 2003 apud NEGREIROS, 2010). The characteristics of the houses were analyzed as meeting the passive thermal conditioning strategies recommended by NBR 15220 (ABNT, 2005), for the bioclimatic zone 7 where the municipalities of Caicó and Acari are located. The house’s analysis of the operating temperatures revealed that 90% of the times of day the environments are within the comfort range. The farmhouses, which had a higher degree of compliance with recommended bioclimatic strategies, had the best thermal performance. In environments (usually the kitchen and rooms with low ceiling heights, exposed to west radiation) which still had discomfort hours, the thermal comfort can be reached with air movement approximately 1,0 m/s.

Provocative feature deletion: a syntactic model of agreement alternations in noun incorporation contexts

The relationship between noun incorporation (NI) and the agreement alternations that occur in such contexts (NI Transitivity Alternations) remains inadequately understood. Three interpretations of these alternations (Baker, Aranovich & Golluscio 2005; Mithun 1984; Rosen 1989) are shown to be undermined by foundational or mechanical issues. I propose a syntactic model, adopting Branigan's (2011) interpretation of NI as the result of “provocative” feature valuation, which triggers generation of a copy of the object that subsequently merges inside the verb. Provocation triggers a reflexive Refine operation that deletes duplicate features from chains, making them interpretable for Transfer. NI Transitivity Alternations result from variant deletion preferences exhibited during Refine. I argue that the NI contexts discussed (Generic NI, Partial NI and Double Object NI) result from different restrictions on phonetic and semantic identity in chain formation. This provides us with a consistent definition of NI Transitivity Alternations across contexts, as well as a new typology that distinguishes NI contexts, rather than incorporating languages.

Characterization of dynamic speckle sequences using principal component analysis and image descriptors

Speckle is being used as a characterization tool for the analysis of the dynamic of slow varying phenomena occurring in biological and industrial samples. The retrieved data takes the form of a sequence of speckle images. The analysis of these images should reveal the inner dynamic of the biological or physical process taking place in the sample. Very recently, it has been shown that principal component analysis is able to split the original data set in a collection of classes. These classes can be related with the dynamic of the observed phenomena. At the same time, statistical descriptors of biospeckle images have been used to retrieve information on the characteristics of the sample. These statistical descriptors can be calculated in almost real time and provide a fast monitoring of the sample. On the other hand, principal component analysis requires longer computation time but the results contain more information related with spatial-temporal pattern that can be identified with physical process. This contribution merges both descriptions and uses principal component analysis as a pre-processing tool to obtain a collection of filtered images where a simpler statistical descriptor can be calculated. The method has been applied to slow-varying biological and industrial processes

De la mémoire de l’histoire à la refonte des encyclopédies: médiations symboliques du roman francophone

Cette recherche porte sur dix romans d’auteurs francophones : Monnè, outrages et défis, d’Ahmadou Kourouma ; La mère du printemps et Naissance à l’aube, de Driss Chraïbi ; L’escargot entêté et Les 1001 années de nostalgie, de Rachid Boudjedra ; La déchirure et Le régiment noir, d’Henry Bauchau ; Prochain épisode, Trou de mémoire et L’antiphonaire, d’Hubert Aquin. Au-delà des différences sociohistoriques de leurs origines, les œuvres accusent des fortes similitudes tant au niveau de l’écriture qu’au plan de leur thématique. Nourries – pour la plupart – de l’expérience de vie des auteurs, elles s’ancrent dans l’époque ou convoquent les événements du passé (invasions, colonisation, guerres, résistances) afin de produire une intelligence de l’Histoire. Par métonymisation, cette dernière s’incarne dans un « Je » narrateur halluciné, blessé à l’origine et psychologiquement décomposé, qui engage désespérement l’écriture pour dire son mal être et, peut-être s’en guérir. La fiction de soi sert de moyen pour écrire l’Histoire et celle-ci se confond avec le récit, le discours sur le roman en train de s’écrire tendant à devenir l’objet même de la narration. Dans une autre perspective, prenant le détour de l’allégorie, les textes montrent à travers des événements plus anciens, même vécus ailleurs, des motifs et des figures qui illustrent le mécanisme cyclique, les modes de fabrication de l’Histoire, et témoignent de la résistance des peuples ainsi que de leurs stratégies de survie. Par une approche herméneutique, s’inspirant aussi du paradigme de « mort et naissance » à l’aune duquel Pierre Nepveu lit la littérature québécoise, cette analyse met en lumière la médiation symbolique à l’œuvre dans les romans. Tout en mettant en scène la déshérence des sujets (individuels ou collectifs) et l’impasse historique, ils proposent d’inventer des voies de dépassement. En montrant que les fausses évidences et tout « ce-qui-va-de-soi » dans les imaginaires ont été à l’origine choisis et fabriqués en réponse à des besoins contingents, les fictions du roman francophone attirent notre attention sur un principe majeur de regénération des mondes : une tradition, une culture, une civilisation s’invente ; précisément, elle invente le temps et, inversement, le temps la réinvente.

An idiotypic immune network as a short-term learning architecture for mobile robots

A combined Short-Term Learning (STL) and Long-Term Learning (LTL) approach to solving mobile robot navigation problems is presented and tested in both real and simulated environments. The LTL consists of rapid simulations that use a Genetic Algorithm to derive diverse sets of behaviours. These sets are then transferred to an idiotypic Artificial Immune System (AIS), which forms the STL phase, and the system is said to be seeded. The combined LTL-STL approach is compared with using STL only, and with using a handdesigned controller. In addition, the STL phase is tested when the idiotypic mechanism is turned off. The results provide substantial evidence that the best option is the seeded idiotypic system, i.e. the architecture that merges LTL with an idiotypic AIS for the STL. They also show that structurally different environments can be used for the two phases without compromising transferability.

Mudança de rota

Fundado num estudo de caso sobre a TAP Air Portugal, a empresa pública nacional do sector da aeronáutica, este artigo pretende comunicar o binómio constituído por processos planeados e emergentes na gestão da mudança organizacional. Nas últimas décadas, a TAP Air Portugal vinha acumulando prejuízos constantes, desmotivação nos seus colaboradores e instabilidade laboral permanente. Com a chegada de uma nova equipa de gestão liderada por Fernando Pinto em 2000, o cenário parece ter-se invertido. O papel do líder, o estilo de gestão, as tácticas de negociação e o fomento de uma visão corporativa são debatidos. Através de um plano minuciosamente projectado e comunicado a toda a organização, observou-se uma mudança cultural alicerçada em objectivos comummente partilhados. Restaurada a confiança dos colaboradores, a empresa retomou a rota desejada.

Geotechnical Data and Numerical Analysis of Edifice Collapse and Related Hazards at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala

The continual eruptive activity, occurrence of an ancestral catastrophic collapse, and inherent geologic features of Pacaya volcano (Guatemala) demands an evaluation of potential collapse hazards. This thesis merges techniques in the field and laboratory for a better rock mass characterization of volcanic slopes and slope stability evaluation. New field geological, structural, rock mechanical and geotechnical data on Pacaya is reported and is integrated with laboratory tests to better define the physical-mechanical rock mass properties. Additionally, this data is used in numerical models for the quantitative evaluation of lateral instability of large sector collapses and shallow landslides. Regional tectonics and local structures indicate that the local stress regime is transtensional, with an ENE-WSW sigma 3 stress component. Aligned features trending NNW-SSE can be considered as an expression of this weakness zone that favors magma upwelling to the surface. Numerical modeling suggests that a large-scale collapse could be triggered by reasonable ranges of magma pressure (greater than or equal to 7.7 MPa if constant along a central dyke) and seismic acceleration (greater than or equal to 460 cm/s2), and that a layer of pyroclastic deposits beneath the edifice could have been a factor which controlled the ancestral collapse. Finally, the formation of shear cracks within zones of maximum shear strain could provide conduits for lateral flow, which would account for long lava flows erupted at lower elevations.

Techniques for distributed theory synthesis in multiagent systems

Data sources are often dispersed geographically in real life applications. Finding a knowledge model may require to join all the data sources and to run a machine learning algorithm on the joint set. We present an alternative based on a Multi Agent System (MAS): an agent mines one data source in order to extract a local theory (knowledge model) and then merges it with the previous MAS theory using a knowledge fusion technique. This way, we obtain a global theory that summarizes the distributed knowledge without spending resources and time in joining data sources. New experiments have been executed including statistical significance analysis. The results show that, as a result of knowledge fusion, the accuracy of initial theories is significantly improved as well as the accuracy of the monolithic solution.

Marketing Automation – en studie om ett modernt marknadsföringsverktyg i en svensk kontext

I takt med att digitala medier har utvecklats under de senaste åren har köpresan för-ändrats till att kunder idag i ett mycket senare skede släpper in leverantörer i dialogen. Marketing Automation adresserar den problembilden och har växt fram som en brygga mellan sälj- och marknadsprocessen. Systemet ger möjlighet att effektivt och automatiserat utveckla leads (potentiell kund). Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka hur Marketing Automation påverkar sälj- och marknadsprocesserna. Vilka förutsättningar krävs för en implementation? Ökar lönsamheten? Vi har därför valt att i det teoretiska ramverket beskriva Marketing Automation och bland annat undersöka om ett införande av Marketing Automation medför att sälj- och marknadsorganisationerna slås samman till en organisatorisk enhet. I studien har vi dessutom kartlagt och beskrivit den moderna köpresan och det som ibland kallas intäktsorganisationen. Vi har funnit att Marketing Automation är relativt outforskat i en svensk kontext. För att utröna om teorin, som i stor utsträckning bygger på internationell litteratur och internationella undersökningar, går att överföra till en svensk kontext har vi valt att genomföra en kvalitativ studie i form av en fallstudie av leverantörer av produkter och tjänster inom området samt företag, med den gemensamma nämnaren att de re-presenterar ett kunskapsintensivt erbjudande och har implementerat lösningar för Marketing Automation. I vår analys finns en samsyn mellan leverantörer och kunder i förutsättningar för ett införande, men vi kan även se hur resultaten divergerar och pekar på implikationer, inte minst avseende måluppfyllnad och samverkan mellan sälj- och marknadsorgani-sationerna. Vår slutsats visar bland annat att Marketing Automation kan leda till uppfyllnad av mjuka värden i företaget men har inte bevisats leda till ökad lönsamhet per automatik. Vi ser lönsamhet och Return on Investment (ROI) som ett område som bör utforskas vidare.