Essays in Macro Finance

I study the link between capital markets and sources of macroeconomic risk. In chapter 1 I show that expected inflation risk is priced in the cross section of stock returns even after controlling for cash flow growth and volatility risks. Motivated by this evidence I study a long run risk model with a built-in inflation non-neutrality channel that allows me to decompose the real stochastic discount factor into news about current and expected cash flow growth, news about expected inflation and news about volatility. The model can successfully price a broad menu of assets and provides a setting for analyzing cross sectional variation in expected inflation risk premium. For industries like retail and durable goods inflation risk can account for nearly a third of the overall risk premium while the energy industry and a broad commodity index act like inflation hedges. Nominal bonds are exposed to expected inflation risk and have inflation premiums that increase with bond maturity. The price of expected inflation risk was very high during the 70's and 80's, but has come down a lot since being very close to zero over the past decade. On average, the expected inflation price of risk is negative, consistent with the view that periods of high inflation represent a "bad" state of the world and are associated with low economic growth and poor stock market performance. In chapter 2 I look at the way capital markets react to predetermined macroeconomic announcements. I document significantly higher excess returns on the US stock market on macro release dates as compared to days when no macroeconomic news hit the market. Almost the entire equity premium since 1997 is being realized on days when macroeconomic news are released. At high frequency, there is a pattern of returns increasing in the hours prior to the pre-determined announcement time, peaking around the time of the announcement and dropping thereafter.

Sustainable Business Models – What Do Management Theories Say?

Literature describing the notion and practice of business models has grown considerably over the last few years. Innovative business models appear in every sector of the economy challenging traditional ways of creating and capturing value. However, research describing the theoretical foundations of the field is scarce and many questions still remain. This article examines business models promoting various aspects of sustainable development and tests the explanatory power of two theoretical approaches, namely the resource based view of the firm and transaction cost theory regarding their emergence and successful market performance. Through the examples of industrial ecology and the sharing economy the author shows that a sharp reduction of transaction costs (e.g. in the form of internet based systems) coupled with resources widely available but not utilised before may result in fast growing new markets. This research also provides evidence regarding the notion that these two theoretical approaches can complement each other in explaining corporate behaviour.

Cooperativa habitacional autofinanciável :uma alternativa de mercado à escassez de financiamento

As an example of what happened in Brazil in the 90s, it s noticed in Natal a new system of cooperative housing production which is done by advancing the users resources selffinancing. This system comes as an alternative for the real state market performance since the end of the National Housing Bank (BNH), in 1986. Self-financed housing cooperatives play an important social role by contributing to own housing acquisition by low-income population, without, however, becoming a mechanism of social interest housing production. It is important to consider that Brazil registers a housing deficit of 6.6 million housing units (IBGE 2000/Census), which, compared to 1991, shows an increment of 21.7% to a growth rate of 2.2% a year. This deficit figure has been deepening, mainly with the end of the National Housing Bank (BNH). The self-financed cooperative housing production broadens around the Metropolitan Region of Natal (RMN) and remains as an alternative to the lack of financing in the housing / real state market. In general, the aim of this work is to analyze the role of self-financing housing cooperatives on the housing production in the RMN, in order to identify their role in the real state market, in the own housing promotion and in the housing policy. The Universe of this study is performance of four housing cooperatives - CHAF-RN, COOPHAB-RN, MULTHCOOP e CNH - that work through self-financing. It is considered here an amount of 38 undertakings launched between 1993 and 2002, including 8143 housing units. The methodology adopted consists of bibliographic, documental and field research. As a result, actions like brokerage, marketing, speculation, and the criteria to define places for undertakings and final products, show how close they are to the housing market production. As a matter of fact, this short distance explains why the self-financed cooperative production for social interest housing is still limited. This reinforces the theory that it is necessary to define and implement a subsidized housing policy to serve the low-income Brazilian population

Public firm sponsorship of open source software: A knowledge-based approach to open innovation

As an emerging innovation paradigm gaining momentum in recent years, the open innovation paradigm is calling for greater theoretical depth and more empirical research. This dissertation proposes that open innovation in the context of open source software sponsorship may be viewed as knowledge strategies of the firm. Hence, this dissertation examines the performance determinants of open innovation through the lens of knowledge-based perspectives. Using event study and regression methodologies, this dissertation found that these open source software sponsorship events can indeed boost the stock market performance of US public firms. In addition, both the knowledge capabilities of the firms and the knowledge profiles of the open source projects they sponsor matter for performance. In terms of firm knowledge capabilities, internet service firms perform better than other firms owing to their advantageous complementary capabilities. Also, strong knowledge exploitation capabilities of the firm are positively associated with performance. In terms of the knowledge profile of sponsored projects, platform projects perform better than component projects. Also, community-originated projects outperform firm-originated projects. Finally, based on these findings, this dissertation discussed the important theoretical implications for the strategic tradeoff between knowledge protection and sharing.

Cooperativa habitacional autofinanciável :uma alternativa de mercado à escassez de financiamento

As an example of what happened in Brazil in the 90s, it s noticed in Natal a new system of cooperative housing production which is done by advancing the users resources selffinancing. This system comes as an alternative for the real state market performance since the end of the National Housing Bank (BNH), in 1986. Self-financed housing cooperatives play an important social role by contributing to own housing acquisition by low-income population, without, however, becoming a mechanism of social interest housing production. It is important to consider that Brazil registers a housing deficit of 6.6 million housing units (IBGE 2000/Census), which, compared to 1991, shows an increment of 21.7% to a growth rate of 2.2% a year. This deficit figure has been deepening, mainly with the end of the National Housing Bank (BNH). The self-financed cooperative housing production broadens around the Metropolitan Region of Natal (RMN) and remains as an alternative to the lack of financing in the housing / real state market. In general, the aim of this work is to analyze the role of self-financing housing cooperatives on the housing production in the RMN, in order to identify their role in the real state market, in the own housing promotion and in the housing policy. The Universe of this study is performance of four housing cooperatives - CHAF-RN, COOPHAB-RN, MULTHCOOP e CNH - that work through self-financing. It is considered here an amount of 38 undertakings launched between 1993 and 2002, including 8143 housing units. The methodology adopted consists of bibliographic, documental and field research. As a result, actions like brokerage, marketing, speculation, and the criteria to define places for undertakings and final products, show how close they are to the housing market production. As a matter of fact, this short distance explains why the self-financed cooperative production for social interest housing is still limited. This reinforces the theory that it is necessary to define and implement a subsidized housing policy to serve the low-income Brazilian population

Measuring fund performance using multi-factor models: evidence for the Portuguese market

This paper examines the performance of Portuguese equity funds investing in the domestic and in the European Union market, using several unconditional and conditional multi-factor models. In terms of overall performance, we find that National funds are neutral performers, while European Union funds under-perform the market significantly. These results do not seem to be a consequence of management fees. Overall, our findings are supportive of the robustness of conditional multi-factor models. In fact, Portuguese equity funds seem to be relatively more exposed to smallcaps and more value-oriented. Also, they present strong evidence of time-varying betas and, in the case of the European Union funds, of time-varying alphas too. Finally, in terms of market timing, our tests suggest that mutual fund managers in our sample do not exhibit any market timing abilities. Nevertheless, we find some evidence of timevarying conditional market timing abilities but only at the individual fund level.

Performance of european socially responsible funds during market crises: evidence from France

This paper investigates the performance, investment styles andmanagerial abilities of French socially responsible investment (SRI) funds investing in Europe during crisis and non-crisis periods. Our results show that SRI funds significantly underperformcharacteristics-matched conventional funds during non-crisis periods, but match the performance of their peers duringmarket downturns. The underperformance of SRI funds during good economic states is driven by funds that use negative screens, since funds that use only positive screens performsimilarly to conventional funds across differentmarket conditions. SRI and conventional funds showsignificant differences in risk exposures during non-crisis periods but exhibit much more similar investment styles during crises. Furthermore,we find little evidence of significant differences inmanagerial abilities during bad economic states. Yet, during non-crisis periods, SRI and conventional fund managers exhibit significantly different style-timing abilities and these differences are also related to screening strategies.

Adaptive facade systems - review of performance requirements, design approaches, use cases and market needs

The paper reflects the work of COST Action TU1403 Workgroup 3/Task group 1. The aim is to identify research needs from a review of the state of the art of three aspects related to adaptive façade systems: (1) dynamic performance requirements; (2) façade design under stochastic boundary conditions and (3) experiences with adaptive façade systems and market needs.

Value / personality - attitude - behavior hierarchy and its impact on individual performance in the context of market orientation

The purpose of this dissertation is to better understand how individual employees? values and personality traits influence their attitudes toward market orientation; how such attitudes impact their market-oriented behaviors; and how in turn, these behaviors lead to their superior individual performance. To investigate these relationships, an empirical study was conducted in the French speaking part of Switzerland and data were collected from a sample of service firms? employees from diverse departments and hierarchical levels. To a large extent, the results support the hypothesis of a hierarchical chain moving from value / personality to attitude to behavior to individual performance in relation to market orientation. Le sujet de cette thèse de doctorat est de mieux comprendre comment les valeurs et les traits de personnalité des employés influencent leurs attitudes envers l'orientation vers le marché ; comment ces attitudes ont un effet sur les comportements orientés vers le marché de ces employés et enfin, comment ces comportements conduisent à une meilleure performance individuelle. Afin d'étudier ces relations, une enquête a été conduite en Suisse romande et des données ont été collectées auprès d'un échantillon d'employés d'entreprises de service de différents départements et niveaux hiérarchiques. Les résultats sont concordants avec l'hypothèse d'une chaîne causale allant des valeurs / traits de personnalité aux attitudes, aux comportements et finalement à la performance individuelle dans le contexte de l'orientation vers le marché.

Russian Enterprise Restructuring - the Effect of Privatisation and Market Liberalisation on the Performance of Large Enterprises

The fundamental question in the transitional economies of the former Eastern Europe and Soviet Union has been whether privatisation and market liberalisation have had an effect on the performance of former state-owned enterprises. This study examines the effect of privatisation, capital market discipline, price liberalisation and international price exposure on the restructuring of large Russian enterprises. The performance indicators are sales, profitability, labour productivity and stock market valuations. The results do not show performance differences between state-owned and privatised enterprises. On the other hand, the expansion of the de novo private sector has been strong. New enterprises have significantly higher sales growth, profitability and labour productivity. However, the results indicate a diminishing effect of ownership. The international stock market listing has a significant positive effect on profitability, while the effect of domestic stock market listing is insignificant. The international price exposure has a significant positive increasing effect on profitability and labour productivity. International enterprises have higher profitability only when operating on price liberalised markets, however. The main results of the study are strong evidence on the positive effects of international linkages on the enterprise restructuring and the higher than expected role of new enterprises in the Russian economy.

Market orientation and performance in entrepreneurial SMEs

Market orientation is the organizational culture that creates the necessary behaviors for continuous additional value for customers and thus continuous superior performance for the business. The field of market orientation has been studied repeatedly during the past two decades. Yet research has concentrated on large firms in large domestic markets creating a need for diversifying research. The master’s thesis at hand examined the general incidence of market orientation among SMEs from five different industries as well as its consequences on SME performance. The empirical part of the thesis was conducted with a web-based survey that resulted in 255 responses. The data of the survey was analyzed by statistical analysis. The incidence of market orientation varied among dimensions and market orientation did not show any direct effect on firm performance. Customer orientation was the only dimension that showed a direct (positive) effect. On the contrary, moderating effects were found which indicate that the effect of market orientation in SMEs is influenced by other factors that should receive further attention. Also industry specific differences were discovered and should be further examined.

Performance persistence of equity funds in the Russian stock market

This thesis investigates performance persistence among the equity funds investing in Russia during 2003-2007. Fund performance is measured using several methods including the Jensen alpha, the Fama-French 3- factor alpha, the Sharpe ratio and two of its variations. Moreover, we apply the Bayesian shrinkage estimation in performance measurement and evaluate its usefulness compared with the OLS 3-factor alphas. The pattern of performance persistence is analyzed using the Spearman rank correlation test, cross-sectional regression analysis and stacked return time series. Empirical results indicate that the Bayesian shrinkage estimates may provide better and more accurate estimates of fund performance compared with the OLS 3-factor alphas. Secondly, based on the results it seems that the degree of performance persistence is strongly related to length of the observation period. For the full sample period the results show strong signs of performance reversal whereas for the subperiod analysis the results indicate performance persistence during the most recent years.

Winner-Loser Performance and Macroeconomic Effects during three last Economic Crises in Finnish Stock Market

The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate winner-loser performance when financial markets are facing crisis. This is examined through the idea that does the prior loser portfolios outperform the prior winner portfolios during the three major crises: The depression of the 1990s, the IT-Bubble and the Subprime -crisis. Firstly, the winner and loser portfolios superiority is counted by using the cumulative excess returns from the examination period. The portfolios were formed by counting the excess returns and locating them in to the order of superiority. The excess returns are counted by using one year pre-data before the actual examination period. The results of this part did not support the results of De Bondt & Thaler’s (1985) paper. Secondly, it is investigated how the Finnish and the US macroeconomic factors are seen to be affecting the stock market valuation in Finnish Stock Markets during economic crises. This is done to explain better the changes in the successes of the winner-loser performance. The crises included different amount of selected macro factors. Two latest crises involved as well few selected US macro factors. Exclusively the IT-Bubble -crisis had the most statistically significant results with the US factors. Two other crises did not receive statistically significant results. An extra research was produced to study do the US macro factors impact more significantly on Finnish stock exchange after lags. The selected lags were three, six, nine and twelve months. Three and six month lagged US macro factors during the IT-Bubble -crisis improved the results. The extra research did not improve the results of the Subprime -crisis.

The Effect of Dividend Yield to Stocks’ Performance on Bullish and Bearish Finnish Stock Market

This study examines the relationship between dividend yield and stock return over bullish and bearish Finnish stock market by testing for alpha and beta shifts across bull and bear markets. In addition, this study examines if various factors, such as a standard deviation of dividends, firm size and profitability have an effect on the size, of the firms’ dividends and systematic risk of the stocks. We divide stocks into five portfolios on the basis of their past average dividend yields and investigate if the highest yielding portfolios outperform the lowest yielding portfolios during the different market conditions. As a result, high yielding stocks were most stable during the examination period and offered downside protection on bear markets. However, a strategy of forming portfolios with past dividend yields led to negative alphas even in bull markets. Standard deviation of dividends, firm size and profitability were found to have no effect on the size of dividends and systematic risk of the stocks.