Scaling and data collapse for the mean exit time of asset prices

We study theoretical and empirical aspects of the mean exit time (MET) of financial time series. The theoretical modeling is done within the framework of continuous time random walk. We empirically verify that the mean exit time follows a quadratic scaling law and it has associated a prefactor which is specific to the analyzed stock. We perform a series of statistical tests to determine which kind of correlation are responsible for this specificity. The main contribution is associated with the autocorrelation property of stock returns. We introduce and solve analytically both two-state and three-state Markov chain models. The analytical results obtained with the two-state Markov chain model allows us to obtain a data collapse of the 20 measured MET profiles in a single master curve.

Maintenance Asset Management Project -- Phase II, July 31, 2013

Expanded abstract: Iowa Department of Transportation (IA DOT) is finalizing research to streamline field inventory/inspection of culverts by Maintenance and Construction staff while maximizing the use of tablet technologies. The project began in 2011 to develop some new best practices for field staff to assist in the inventory, inspection and maintenance of assets along the roadway. The team has spent the past year working through the complexities of identifying the most appropriate tablet hardware for field data collection. A small scale deployment of tablets occurred in spring of 2013 to collect several safety related assets (culverts, signs, guardrail, and incidents). Data can be collected in disconnected or connected modes and there is an associated desktop environment where data can be viewed and queried after being synced into the master database. The development of a deployment plan and related workflow processes are underway; which will eventually feed information into IA DOTs larger asset management system and make the information available for decision making. The team is also working with the IA DOT Design Office on Computer Aided Drafting (CAD) data processing and the IA DOT Construction office with a new digital As-Built plan process to leverage the complete data life-cycle so information can be developed once and leveraged by the Maintenance staff farther along in the process.

Essays in equilibrium asset pricing

Introduction This dissertation consists of three essays in equilibrium asset pricing. The first chapter studies the asset pricing implications of a general equilibrium model in which real investment is reversible at a cost. Firms face higher costs in contracting than in expanding their capital stock and decide to invest when their productive capital is scarce relative to the overall capital of the economy. Positive shocks to the capital of the firm increase the size of the firm and reduce the value of growth options. As a result, the firm is burdened with more unproductive capital and its value lowers with respect to the accumulated capital. The optimal consumption policy alters the optimal allocation of resources and affects firm's value, generating mean-reverting dynamics for the M/B ratios. The model (1) captures convergence of price-to-book ratios -negative for growth stocks and positive for value stocks - (firm migration), (2) generates deviations from the classic CAPM in line with the cross-sectional variation in expected stock returns and (3) generates a non-monotone relationship between Tobin's q and conditional volatility consistent with the empirical evidence. The second chapter proposes a standard portfolio-choice problem with transaction costs and mean reversion in expected returns. In the presence of transactions costs, no matter how small, arbitrage activity does not necessarily render equal all riskless rates of return. When two such rates follow stochastic processes, it is not optimal immediately to arbitrage out any discrepancy that arises between them. The reason is that immediate arbitrage would induce a definite expenditure of transactions costs whereas, without arbitrage intervention, there exists some, perhaps sufficient, probability that these two interest rates will come back together without any costs having been incurred. Hence, one can surmise that at equilibrium the financial market will permit the coexistence of two riskless rates that are not equal to each other. For analogous reasons, randomly fluctuating expected rates of return on risky assets will be allowed to differ even after correction for risk, leading to important violations of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The combination of randomness in expected rates of return and proportional transactions costs is a serious blow to existing frictionless pricing models. Finally, in the last chapter I propose a two-countries two-goods general equilibrium economy with uncertainty about the fundamentals' growth rates to study the joint behavior of equity volatilities and correlation at the business cycle frequency. I assume that dividend growth rates jump from one state to other, while countries' switches are possibly correlated. The model is solved in closed-form and the analytical expressions for stock prices are reported. When calibrated to the empirical data of United States and United Kingdom, the results show that, given the existing degree of synchronization across these business cycles, the model captures quite well the historical patterns of stock return volatilities. Moreover, I can explain the time behavior of the correlation, but exclusively under the assumption of a global business cycle.

Asset Management Program Enhancement Plan: Baseline Assessment Phases I and II, 2015

This project resulted in the development of a framework for making asset management decisions on low-volume bridges. The research focused on low-volume bridges located in the agricultural counties of Iowa because recent research has shown that these counties have the greatest percentage of structurally deficient bridges in the nation. Many of the same counties also have the highest crop yields in the state, creating a situation where detours caused by deficient bridges on farm-to-market roads increase the cost to transport the crops. Thus, the research proposed the use of social return on investment (SROI), a tool used by international institutions such as the World Bank, as an asset management metric to gauge to the socioeconomic impact of structurally deficient bridges on the state in an effort to provide quantified justification to fund improvements on low-volume assets such as these rural bridges. The study found that combining SROI with current asset management metrics like average daily traffic (ADT) made it possible to prioritize the bridges in such a way that the limited resources available are allocated in a manner that promotes a more equitable distribution and that directly benefits the user, in this case Iowa farmers. The result is a system that more closely aligns itself with the spirit of MAP-21, in that infrastructure investments are used to facilitate economic growth for Iowa’s agricultural economy.

Final Report (SPR Project 90-00-RB10-012) on the Maintenance Asset Management Project Phase I, 2012

This project resulted in the development of a proof of concept for a features inventory process to be used by field staff. The resulting concept is adaptable for different asset classes (e.g. culverts, guardrail) and able to leverage existing DOT resources such as the videolog and LRS and our current technology platforms including Oracle and our GIS web infrastructure. The concept examined the feasibility of newly available technologies, such as mobile devices, while balancing ease of use in the field. Implementation and deployment costs were also important considerations in evaluating the success of the project. These project funds allowed the pilot to address the needs of two DOT districts. A report of findings was prepared, including recommendations for or against full deployment of the pilot solution.

Final Report (SPR Project 90-00-RB10-012) on the Maintenance Asset Management Project Phase II, 2013

This project resulted in the development of a proof of concept for a features inventory process to be used by field staff. The resulting concept is adaptable for different asset classes (e.g. culverts, guardrail) and able to leverage existing DOT resources such as the videolog and LRS and our current technology platforms including Oracle and our GIS web infrastructure. The concept examined the feasibility of newly available technologies, such as mobile devices, while balancing ease of use in the field. Implementation and deployment costs were also important considerations in evaluating the success of the project. These project funds allowed the pilot to address the needs of two DOT districts. A report of findings was prepared, including recommendations for a full deployment of a field data collection.

Iowa Pavement Asset Management Decision-Making Framework & Pavement Treatment Selection Tool for Local Agencies, TR-651, 2015

Most local agencies in Iowa currently make their pavement treatment decisions based on their limited experience due primarily to lack of a systematic decision-making framework and a decision-aid tool. The lack of objective condition assessment data of agency pavements also contributes to this problem. This study developed a systematic pavement treatment selection framework for local agencies to assist them in selecting the most appropriate treatment and to help justify their maintenance and rehabilitation decisions. The framework is based on an extensive literature review of the various pavement treatment techniques in terms of their technical applicability and limitations, meaningful practices of neighboring states, and the results of a survey of local agencies. The treatment selection framework involves three different steps: pavement condition assessment, selection of technically feasible treatments using decision trees, and selection of the most appropriate treatment considering the return-on-investment (ROI) and other non-economic factors. An Excel-based spreadsheet tool that automates the treatment selection framework was also developed, along with a standalone user guide for the tool. The Pavement Treatment Selection Tool (PTST) for Local Agencies allows users to enter the severity and extent levels of existing distresses and then, recommends a set of technically feasible treatments. The tool also evaluates the ROI of each feasible treatment and, if necessary, it can also evaluate the non-economic value of each treatment option to help determine the most appropriate treatment for the pavement. It is expected that the framework and tool will help local agencies improve their pavement asset management practices significantly and make better economic and defensible decisions on pavement treatment selection.

The competitive position of the Nordic wood industry in Germany : intangible quality dimensions

Abstract

Omaisuuden luonteessa tapahtunut muutos ja taloudellisen raportoinnin haasteet

Aineettomalla omaisuudellatarkoitetaan sellaisia resursseja, joiden arvo perustuu niiden aineettomiin ominaisuuksiin. Aineeton omaisuus on usein yrityksen sisäisesti synnyttämää ja sen arvo on riippuvainen käyttäjästä, käyttötarkoituksesta ja yrityksen muista resursseista. Aineettoman omaisuuden markkinat ovat kehittymättömät ja sen kirjanpidollinen käsittely on hankalaa. Lailliset omistusoikeudet ja resurssin hankintamenon luotettava määriteltävyys ovat monesti ratkaisevassa asemassa arvioitaessa resurssin kirjaamisedellytyksiä. Taseen ulkopuolelle jäävät aineettomat resurssit ovat tavallisesti sellaisia, jotka eivät varsinaisesti ole yrityksen omaisuutta,kuten ihmisten ajatuksiin ja osaamiseen perustuva arvo. Yritys voi kom­munikoida sidosryhmilleen taseen ulkopuolisista resursseista laajan, epävirallisiin raportteihin perustuvan viestinnän avulla.

Empirical Tests of Asset Pricing Models in Finnish Stock Market

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää mitkä riskitekijät vaikuttavat osakkeiden tuottoihin. Arvopapereina käytetään kuutta portfoliota, jotka ovat jaoteltu markkina-arvon mukaan. Aikaperiodi on vuoden 1987 alusta vuoden 2004 loppuun. Malleina käytetään pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoittelumallia, arbitraasihinnoitteluteoriaa sekä kulutuspohjaista pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoittelumallia. Riskifaktoreina kahteen ensimmäiseen malliin käytetään markkinariskiä sekä makrotaloudellisia riskitekijöitä. Kulutuspohjaiseen pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoinoittelumallissa keskitytään estimoimaan kuluttajien riskitottumuksia sekä diskonttaustekijää, jolla kuluttaja arvostavat tulevaisuuden kulutusta. Tämä työ esittelee momenttiteorian, jolla pystymme estimoimaan lineaarisia sekä epälineaarisia yhtälöitä. Käytämme tätä menetelmää testaamissamme malleissa. Yhteenvetona tuloksista voidaan sanoa, että markkinabeeta onedelleen tärkein riskitekijä, mutta löydämme myös tukea makrotaloudellisille riskitekijöille. Kulutuspohjainen mallimme toimii melko hyvin antaen teoreettisesti hyväksyttäviä arvoja.

Asset freezing, corporate political resources and the Tullock paradox

In 1967, Gordon Tullock asked why firms do not spend more on campaign contributions, despite the large rents that could be generated from political activities. We suggest in this paper that part of the puzzle could come from the fact that one important type of political activity has been neglected by the literature which focuses on campaign contributions or political connections. We call this neglected activity "asset freezing": situations in which firms delay lay-offs or invest in specific technologies to support local politicians' re-election objectives. In doing so, firms bear a potentially significant cost as they do not use a portion of their economic assets in the most efficient or productive way. The purpose of this paper is to provide a first theoretical exploration of this phenomenon. Building on the literature on corporate political resources, we argue that a firm's economic assets can be evaluated based on their degree of "political freezability," which depends on the flexibility of their use and on their value for policy-makers. We then develop a simple model in which financial contributions and freezing assets are alternative options for a firm willing to lawfully influence public policy-making, and derive some of our initial hypotheses more formally.

Tests of International Asset Pricing Models in Scandinavian Stock Markets

This thesis examines whether global, local and exchange risks are priced in Scandinavian countries’ equity markets by using conditional international asset pricing models. The employed international asset pricing models are the world capital asset pricing model, the international asset pricing model augmented with the currency risk, and the partially segmented model augmented with the currency risk. Moreover, this research traces estimated equity risk premiums for the Scandinavian countries. The empirical part of the study is performed using generalized method of moments approach. Monthly observations from February 1994 to June 2007 are used. Investors’ conditional expectations are modeled using several instrumental variables. In order to keep system parsimonious the prices of risk are assumed to be constant whereas expected returns and conditional covariances vary over time. The empirical findings of this thesis suggest that the prices of global and local market risk are priced in the Scandinavian countries. This indicates that the Scandinavian countries are mildly segmented from the global markets. Furthermore, the results show that the exchange risk is priced in the Danish and Swedish stock markets when the partially segmented model is augmented with the currency risk factor.