Monitoring the Performance of Complex Projects from Multiple Perspectives over Multiple Time Frames

When complex projects go wrong they can go horribly wrong with severe financial consequences. We are undertaking research to develop leading performance indicators for complex projects, metrics to provide early warning of potential difficulties. The assessment of success of complex projects can be made by a range of stakeholders over different time scales, against different levels of project results: the project’s outputs at the end of the project; the project’s outcomes in the months following project completion; and the project’s impact in the years following completion. We aim to identify leading performance indicators, which may include both success criteria and success factors, and which can be measured by the project team during project delivery to forecast success as assessed by key stakeholders in the days, months and years following the project. The hope is the leading performance indicators will act as alarm bells to show if a project is diverting from plan so early corrective action can be taken. It may be that different combinations of the leading performance indicators will be appropriate depending on the nature of project complexity. In this paper we develop a new model of project success, whereby success is assessed by different stakeholders over different time frames against different levels of project results. We then relate this to measurements that can be taken during project delivery. A methodology is described to evaluate the early parts of this model. Its implications and limitations are described. This paper describes work in progress.

The Kava Anxiety Depression Spectrum Study (KADSS): A randomized, placebo-controlled, cross-over trial using an aqueous extract of Piper methysticum.

Rationale: Piper methysticum (Kava) has been withdrawn in European, British, and Canadian markets due to concerns over hepatotoxic reactions. The WHO recently recommended research into “aqueous” extracts of Kava. Objective: The objective of this study was to conduct the first documented human clinical trial assessing the anxiolytic and antidepressant efficacy of an aqueous extract of Kava. Design and participants: The Kava Anxiety Depression Spectrum Study was a 3-week placebo-controlled, double-blind crossover trial that recruited 60 adult participants with 1 month or more of elevated generalized anxiety. Five Kava tablets per day were prescribed containing 250 mg of kavalactones/day. Results: The aqueous extract of Kava reduced participants' Hamilton Anxiety Scale score in the first controlled phase by −9.9 (CI = 7.1, 12.7) vs. −0.8 (CI = −2.7, 4.3) for placebo and in the second controlled phase by −10.3 (CI = 5.8, 14.7) vs. +3.3 (CI = −6.8, 0.2). The pooled effect of Kava vs. placebo across phases was highly significant (p < 0.0001), with a substantial effect size (d = 2.24, η² [sub]p[sub] = 0.428). Pooled analyses also revealed highly significant relative reductions in Beck Anxiety Inventory and Montgomery–Asberg Depression Rating Scale scores. The aqueous extract was found to be safe, with no serious adverse effects and no clinical hepatotoxicity. Conclusions: The aqueous Kava preparation produced significant anxiolytic and antidepressant activity and raised no safety concerns at the dose and duration studied. Kava appears equally effective in cases where anxiety is accompanied by depression. This should encourage further study and consideration of globally reintroducing aqueous rootstock extracts of Kava for the management of anxiety.

Volcanic sulphate and Arctic dust plumes over the North Atlantic Ocean

High time resolution aerosol mass spectrometry measurements were conducted during a field campaign at Mace Head Research Station, Ireland, in June 2007. Observations on one particular day of the campaign clearly indicated advection of aerosol from volcanoes and desert plains in Iceland which could be traced with NOAA Hysplit air mass back trajectories and satellite images. In conjunction with this event, elevated levels of sulphate and light absorbing particles were encountered at Mace Head. While sulphate concentration was continuously increasing, nitrate levels remained low indicating no significant contribution from anthropogenic pollutants. Sulphate concentration increased about 3.8 g/m3 in comparison with the background conditions. Corresponding sulphur flux from volcanic emissions was estimated to about 0.3 TgS/yr, suggesting that a large amount of sulphur released from Icelandic volcanoes may be distributed over distances larger than 1000 km. Overall, our results corroborate that transport of volcanogenic sulphate and dust particles can significantly change the chemical composition, size distribution, and optical properties of aerosol over the North Atlantic Ocean and should be considered accordingly by regional climate models.

Under great pressure, a diamond is being formed: The SBS over time

This article observes a paradox in the recent history of the Special Broadcasting Service. It is argued that, in contrast to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, the role and general direction of SBS were not extensively debated as part of the ‘culture wars’ that occurred during the years of the Howard government. While that made SBS a less fraught space during that period, it may now be a factor in the comparative lack of support being given by the Rudd Labor government to SBS in comparison with the ABC, as some of the ‘special’ status of SBS has been blunted by its drift towards more mainstream programming and a mixed economy of commercial advertising, as well as government funding.

Tip-over injuries in children under 5 years of age in Queensland 1999-2008

Furniture and appliance related injuries in children under 5 years of age accounts for an estimated 180 emergency presentations annually in Queensland. Injuries occur when children push or pull items over, climb and fall off furniture, or climb and tip the item over. Children under 2 years of age tend to injure themselves by pulling items over onto themselves Children over 2 years of age are more likely to be injured after climbing the item and either falling off or tipping the item over onto themselves. Tip over injuries (where the item falls over and injures the child) in children under 5 years of age account for an estimated 115 emergency presentations annually in Queensland. The item most commonly associated with a tip over injury is a television (with or without the cabinet) Prevention requires better design and selection of furniture with inherent stability coupled with mechanisms to install or fix less stable items

Relationship over time between psychological distress and physical activity in colorectal cancer survivors

Purpose Increased physical activity in colorectal cancer patients is related to improved recurrence free and overall survival. Psychological distress after cancer may place patients at risk of reduced physical activity; but paradoxically also act as a motivator for positive lifestyle change. The relationship between psychological distress and physical activity after cancer over time has not been described. Methods A prospective survey of 1966 (57% response) colorectal cancer survivors assessed the psychological distress variables of anxiety, depression, somatisation, cancer threat appraisal as predictors of physical activity five, 12, 24 and 36 months post-diagnosis 978 respondents had valid data for all time points. Results Higher somatisation was associated with greater physical inactivity (Relative risk ratio (RRR) =1.12; 95% CI=[1.1, 1.2]) and insufficient physical activity (RRR=1.05; [0.90, 1.0]). Respondents with a more positive appraisal of their cancer were significantly (p=0.031) less likely to be inactive (RRR=0.95; [0.90, 1.0]) or insufficiently active (RRR=0.96). Fatigued and obese respondents and current smokers were more inactive. Respondents whose somatisation increased between two time periods were less likely to increase their physical activity over the same period (p<0.001). Respondents with higher anxiety at one time period were less likely to have increased their activity at the next assessment (p=0.004). There was no association between depression and physical activity. Conclusions Cancer survivors who experience somatisation and anxiety are at greater risk of physical inactivity. The lack of a clear relationship between higher psychological distress and increasing physical activity argues against distress as a motivator to exercise in these patients.

Contracting-out asset maintenance : how arrangements adapt over time

Technological and societal change, along with organisational and market change (driven by contracting-out and privatisation), are “creating a new generation of infrastructures” [1]. While inter-organisational contractual arrangements can improve maintenance efficiency through consistent and repeatable patterns of action - unanticipated difficulties in implementation can reduce the performance of these arrangements. When faced with unsatisfactory performance of contracting-out arrangements, government organisations may choose to adapt and change these arrangements over time, with the aim of improving performance. This paper enhances our understanding of ‘next generation infrastructures’ by examining adaptation of the organisational arrangements for the maintenance of these assets, in a case study spanning 20 years.

Near real-time prediction of Zenith Tropospheric Delays for position estimation over long-baseline CORS network

This paper presents the preliminary results in establishing a strategy for predicting Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) and relative ZTD (rZTD) between Continuous Operating Reference Stations (CORS) in near real-time. It is anticipated that the predicted ZTD or rZTD can assist the network-based Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) performance over long inter-station distances, ultimately, enabling a cost effective method of delivering precise positioning services to sparsely populated regional areas, such as Queensland. This research firstly investigates two ZTD solutions: 1) the post-processed IGS ZTD solution and 2) the near Real-Time ZTD solution. The near Real-Time solution is obtained through the GNSS processing software package (Bernese) that has been deployed for this project. The predictability of the near Real-Time Bernese solution is analyzed and compared to the post-processed IGS solution where it acts as the benchmark solution. The predictability analyses were conducted with various prediction time of 15, 30, 45, and 60 minutes to determine the error with respect to timeliness. The predictability of ZTD and relative ZTD is determined (or characterized) by using the previously estimated ZTD as the predicted ZTD of current epoch. This research has shown that both the ZTD and relative ZTD predicted errors are random in nature; the STD grows from a few millimeters to sub-centimeters while the predicted delay interval ranges from 15 to 60 minutes. Additionally, the RZTD predictability shows very little dependency on the length of tested baselines of up to 1000 kilometers. Finally, the comparison of near Real-Time Bernese solution with IGS solution has shown a slight degradation in the prediction accuracy. The less accurate NRT solution has an STD error of 1cm within the delay of 50 minutes. However, some larger errors of up to 10cm are observed.

Preventing consumer credit over-commitment and irresponsible lending in Australia

Mirroring the trends in other developed countries, levels of household debt in Australia have risen markedly in recent years. As one example, the total amount lent by banks to individuals has risen from $175.5 billion in August 1995 to $590.5 billion in August 2005.1 Consumer groups an~ media commentators here have long raised concerns about the risks of increasing levels of household debt and over-commitment, linking these issues at least in part to irresponsible lending practices. And more recently, the Reserve Bank Governor has also expressed concerns about the ability 'of some households to manage if personal or economic circumstances change.2

Preliminary review of over-regulation in Australian financial services

This article examines a preliminary review and the limited evidence of over-regulation in Australian financial services. The 1997 Wallis Report and the CLERP 6 paper resulted in the amendments to Ch 7 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) by the Financial Services Reform Act. Nearly a decade later the system based upon 'one-size fits all' dual track regime and a consistent licensing regime has greatly increased the costs of compliance. In the area of enforcement there has not been a dramatic change to the effective techniques applied by ASIC over other agencies such as APRA. In particular there are clear economic arguments, as well as international experiences which state that a single financial services regulator is more effective than the multi-layered approach adopted in Australia. Finally, in the superannuation area of financial services, which is worth A$800 billion there is unnecessary dual licensing and duplicated regulation with little evidence of any consumer-member benefit but at a much greater cost