Improved design method for biosecurity surveillance and early detection of non-indigenous rats

A recent advance in biosecurity surveillance design aims to benefit island conservation through early and improved detection of incursions by non-indigenous species. The novel aspects of the design are that it achieves a specified power of detection in a cost-managed system, while acknowledging heterogeneity of risk in the study area and stratifying the area to target surveillance deployment. The design also utilises a variety of surveillance system components, such as formal scientific surveys, trapping methods, and incidental sightings by non-biologist observers. These advances in design were applied to black rats (Rattus rattus) representing the group of invasive rats including R. norvegicus, and R. exulans, which are potential threats to Barrow Island, Australia, a high value conservation nature reserve where a proposed liquefied natural gas development is a potential source of incursions. Rats are important to consider as they are prevalent invaders worldwide, difficult to detect early when present in low numbers, and able to spread and establish relatively quickly after arrival. The ‘exemplar’ design for the black rat is then applied in a manner that enables the detection of a range of non-indigenous species of rat that could potentially be introduced. Many of the design decisions were based on expert opinion as data gaps exist in empirical data. The surveillance system was able to take into account factors such as collateral effects on native species, the availability of limited resources on an offshore island, financial costs, demands on expertise and other logistical constraints. We demonstrate the flexibility and robustness of the surveillance system and discuss how it could be updated as empirical data are collected to supplement expert opinion and provide a basis for adaptive management. Overall, the surveillance system promotes an efficient use of resources while providing defined power to detect early rat incursions, translating to reduced environmental, resourcing and financial costs.

Reliability of partial ambiguity fixing with multiple GNSS constellations

Reliable ambiguity resolution (AR) is essential to Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) positioning and its applications, since incorrect ambiguity fixing can lead to largely biased positioning solutions. A partial ambiguity fixing technique is developed to improve the reliability of AR, involving partial ambiguity decorrelation (PAD) and partial ambiguity resolution (PAR). Decorrelation transformation could substantially amplify the biases in the phase measurements. The purpose of PAD is to find the optimum trade-off between decorrelation and worst-case bias amplification. The concept of PAR refers to the case where only a subset of the ambiguities can be fixed correctly to their integers in the integer least-squares (ILS) estimation system at high success rates. As a result, RTK solutions can be derived from these integer-fixed phase measurements. This is meaningful provided that the number of reliably resolved phase measurements is sufficiently large for least-square estimation of RTK solutions as well. Considering the GPS constellation alone, partially fixed measurements are often insufficient for positioning. The AR reliability is usually characterised by the AR success rate. In this contribution an AR validation decision matrix is firstly introduced to understand the impact of success rate. Moreover the AR risk probability is included into a more complete evaluation of the AR reliability. We use 16 ambiguity variance-covariance matrices with different levels of success rate to analyse the relation between success rate and AR risk probability. Next, the paper examines during the PAD process, how a bias in one measurement is propagated and amplified onto many others, leading to more than one wrong integer and to affect the success probability. Furthermore, the paper proposes a partial ambiguity fixing procedure with a predefined success rate criterion and ratio-test in the ambiguity validation process. In this paper, the Galileo constellation data is tested with simulated observations. Numerical results from our experiment clearly demonstrate that only when the computed success rate is very high, the AR validation can provide decisions about the correctness of AR which are close to real world, with both low AR risk and false alarm probabilities. The results also indicate that the PAR procedure can automatically chose adequate number of ambiguities to fix at given high-success rate from the multiple constellations instead of fixing all the ambiguities. This is a benefit that multiple GNSS constellations can offer.

A hierarchical decomposition approach for coordinated dispatch of plug-in electric vehicles

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are increasingly popular in the global trend of energy saving and environmental protection. However, the uncoordinated charging of numerous PEVs can produce significant negative impacts on the secure and economic operation of the power system concerned. In this context, a hierarchical decomposition approach is presented to coordinate the charging/discharging behaviors of PEVs. The major objective of the upper-level model is to minimize the total cost of system operation by jointly dispatching generators and electric vehicle aggregators (EVAs). On the other hand, the lower-level model aims at strictly following the dispatching instructions from the upper-level decision-maker by designing appropriate charging/discharging strategies for each individual PEV in a specified dispatching period. Two highly efficient commercial solvers, namely AMPL/IPOPT and AMPL/CPLEX, respectively, are used to solve the developed hierarchical decomposition model. Finally, a modified IEEE 118-bus testing system including 6 EVAs is employed to demonstrate the performance of the developed model and method.

A method of switch selection for an electric vehicle drive

The key to reducing cost of electric vehicles is integration. All too often systems such as the motor, motor controller, batteries and vehicle chassis/body are considered as separate problems. The truth is that a lot of trade-offs can be made between these systems, causing an overall improvement in many areas including total cost. Motor controller and battery cost have a relatively simple relationship; the less energy lost in the motor controller the less energy that has to be carried in the batteries, hence the lower the battery cost. A motor controller’s cost is primarily influenced by the cost of the switches. This paper will therefore present a method of assessing the optimal switch selection on the premise that the optimal switch is the one that produces the lowest system cost, where system cost is the cost of batteries + switches.

Capturing natural-colour 3D models of insects for species discovery and diagnostics

Collections of biological specimens are fundamental to scientific understanding and characterization of natural diversity - past, present and future. This paper presents a system for liberating useful information from physical collections by bringing specimens into the digital domain so they can be more readily shared, analyzed, annotated and compared. It focuses on insects and is strongly motivated by the desire to accelerate and augment current practices in insect taxonomy which predominantly use text, 2D diagrams and images to describe and characterize species. While these traditional kinds of descriptions are informative and useful, they cannot cover insect specimens "from all angles" and precious specimens are still exchanged between researchers and collections for this reason. Furthermore, insects can be complex in structure and pose many challenges to computer vision systems. We present a new prototype for a practical, cost-effective system of off-the-shelf components to acquire natural-colour 3D models of insects from around 3 mm to 30 mm in length. ("Natural-colour" is used to contrast with "false-colour", i.e., colour generated from, or applied to, gray-scale data post-acquisition.) Colour images are captured from different angles and focal depths using a digital single lens reflex (DSLR) camera rig and two-axis turntable. These 2D images are processed into 3D reconstructions using software based on a visual hull algorithm. The resulting models are compact (around 10 megabytes), afford excellent optical resolution, and can be readily embedded into documents and web pages, as well as viewed on mobile devices. The system is portable, safe, relatively affordable, and complements the sort of volumetric data that can be acquired by computed tomography. This system provides a new way to augment the description and documentation of insect species holotypes, reducing the need to handle or ship specimens. It opens up new opportunities to collect data for research, education, art, entertainment, biodiversity assessment and biosecurity control. © 2014 Nguyen et al.

Jätteenkeräyksen ja -siirron yhteiskunnalliset kustannukset Punavuoressa – Tarkastelussa seka-, bio-, kartonki- ja paperijäte

Tämän pro gradu -tutkielman tarkoituksena on määrittää jätteenkeräyksen ja -siirron yhteiskunnalliset kustannukset valitulla tutkimusalueella Helsingin Punavuoressa. Jätteenkeräyksen ja -siirron kustannukset vastaavat suuruudeltaan merkittävää osaa jätehuollon kokonaiskustannuksista, minkä vuoksi kustannusten tutkimiselle ja tarkastelulle löytyy kysyntää. Lisäksi keräyksen ja siirron kustannukset saattavat vaihdella suuresti johtuen erilaisista kaupunkirakenteista,keräysmenetelmistä ja teknologioista, joten tapaustarkastelun avulla pystytään selvittämään yksityiskohtaisesti alueen jätteenkeräyksen ja -siirron kustannukset. Tutkimusalue Helsingin Punavuoressa on yksi Suomen tiheimmin asutuista alueista, missä jätteidenkeräystä hankaloittaa kapeat kadut, useat sisäpihoille sijoitetut jätehuoneet ja vilkas liikenne. Erityispiirteidensä vuoksi jätteenkeräys- ja siirto aiheuttaa tutkimusalueella yksityisten kustannusten lisäksi myös useita ulkoisvaikutuksia muun muassa ilmansaasteiden ja viihtyvyyshaittojen muodossa. Tässä työssä lasketaan jätteenkeräyksen ja -siirron yhteiskunnalliset kustannukset neljän eri jätelajin osalta huomioimalla sekä yksityiset kustannustekijät että ulkoiskustannuksina syntyvien päästöjen kustannukset. Työn aineistona on käytetty erilaisia kustannuslaskelmien kirjallisuuslähteitä, asiantuntija-arvioita ja tutkimusalueella tehtyjä kellotusmittauksia. Alueen kellotusmittauksiin perustuvalla aikaperusteisella laskentatavalla jätteenkeräyksen ja -siirron jätetonnikohtaisiksi keskimääräisiksi kustannuksiksi saatiin 73 €/t. Kustannuksissa havaittiin kuitenkin suuria jätelajikohtaisia eroja, jolloin keräyksen ja siirron kustannukset heittelivät 49–125 €/t välillä. Suuret jätelajikohtaiset kustannuserot ovat selitettävissä pitkälti jätteiden koostumuksella, koska kevyiden ja paljon tilaa vievien jätelajien jätetonnikohtaiset kustannukset olivat suurimpia. Teoriataustan ja lähdeaineiston perusteella saadut tulokset myös osoittavat, että jätteenkeräyksen ja siirron kustannuksista huomioitujen ulkoiskustannusten osuus on häviävän pieni verrattuna yksityisten kustannusten tasoon.

A implantação do sistema gerencial de custos (SISCUSTOS) desenvolvido pelo Exército Brasileiro: estudo de caso na 1 Inspetoria de Contabilidade e Finanças do Exército

A implantação de sistemas de custos no setor público tem sido apontada como uma necessidade gerencial primordial para se alcançar as dimensões dos princípios da eficiência, eficácia e efetividade na administração pública, fato que proporcionaria a otimização do uso dos escassos recursos disponíveis. Com o advento da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal entrou em evidência a discussão sobre o tema no cenário nacional, sendo mais recentemente criada no governo federal uma comissão interministerial de custos com objetivo de elaborar estudos e propor diretrizes, métodos e procedimentos para subsidiar a implantação de Sistemas de Custos na Administração Pública Federal. Tendo em vistas essas necessidades, o presente trabalho tem por objetivo principal verificar a adequabilidade do Sistema Gerencial de Custos (SISCUSTOS) implantado no Exército Brasileiro permite a apuração de custos sob a ótica da teoria contábil e complementarmente analisar se o sistema de custos adequasse as metodologias do custeio ABC e fornece subsídios para a tomada de decisões. Para isso realizou-se um estudo de caso de natureza qualitativa, coletando-se dados de fontes primárias e secundárias, além de entrevistas com os servidores responsáveis pelo desenvolvimento, implantação e operacionalização do sistema. O resultado verificado foi que as funcionalidades disponibilizadas pelo SISCUSTOS vislumbram a aderência do sistema com o plano teórico, permitindo que as informações extraídas da contabilidade governamental contemporânea sejam ajustadas, para uma possível aproximação da contabilidade orçamentária com a contabilidade patrimonial, necessitando apenas de alguns ajustes para itens aqui denominados como peculiares da contabilidade governamental. No caso do método de custeio ABC observou-se que a metodologia está sendo subtilizada, e que o grau desejado em extrair todas as contribuições disponibilizadas pelo ABC somente virá com a maturidade da gestão de custos, sendo que, para atingir tais objetivos haverá a necessidade de se fixar como atributos cognitivos os 4C - Cultura de Custos, Comprometimento, Competição e Confiabilidade - entre os usuários do sistema e a alta administração.

Sistemas inteligentes aplicados em monitoramento de estruturas aeronáuticas.

Este trabalho apresenta o desenvolvimento de sistemas inteligentes aplicados ao monitoramento de estruturas aeronáuticas abordando dois modelos distintos: o primeiro é a análise e classificação de imagens de ultrassom de estruturas aeronáuticas com objetivo de apoiar decisões em reparo de estruturas aeronáuticas. Foi definido como escopo do trabalho uma seção transversal da asa da aeronave modelo Boeing 707. Após a remoção de material superficial em áreas comprometidas por corrosão, é realizada a medição da espessura ao longo da área da peça. Com base nestas medições, a Engenharia realiza a análise estrutural, observando os limites determinados pelo manual de manutenção e determina a necessidade ou não de reparo. O segundo modelo compreende o método de impedância eletromecânica. É proposto o desenvolvimento de um sistema de monitoramento de baixo custo aplicado em uma barra de alumínio aeronáutico com 10 posições de fixação de porcas e parafusos. O objetivo do sistema é avaliar, a partir das curvas de impedância extraídas do transdutor PZT fixado na barra, sua capacidade de classificar a existência ou não de um dano na estrutura e, em caso de existência do dano, indicar sua localização e seu grau de severidade. Foram utilizados os seguintes classificadores neste trabalho: máquina de vetor de suporte, redes neurais artificiais e K vizinhos mais próximos.

Custeio dos gastos no serviço público de saúde: estudo de caso no Hospital Nelson Salles

A dissertação tem como objetivo aplicar um método de custeio aos gastos atribuídos, pelo Hospital Nelson Salles, na execução do serviço público de saúde, em apoio ao Município Engenheiro Paulo de Frontin. Para a realização deste trabalho, o estudo utilizou-se da pesquisa bibliográfica para fundamentar e ilustrar o tema proposto, bem como, do método exploratório descritivo para reconhecer a situação da instituição e identificar uma metodologia de controle dos custos adequada à realidade da organização estudada. A apuração de custos em organizações hospitalares justifica-se: pelo aumento na demanda de clientes; pelo crescimento dos gastos na área da saúde e pelas limitações decorrentes dos orçamentos das entidades públicas, onde as organizações necessitam adotar um sistema que forneça informações úteis referentes aos custos, em especial ao hospital, objeto de estudo, por não dispor de um sistema de custos. Um sistema de apuração de custos pode trazer aos gestores hospitalares informações relevantes ao planejamento, controle e tomada de decisão com vistas à otimizar os recursos limitados e a manutenção da qualidade no atendimento ao paciente. Neste contexto, foram apresentados os principais métodos de custeio utilizados para a implementação do sistema de gestão de custos hospitalares, que são custeio por absorção; com apropriação por centro de custos, o custeio variado e o custeio baseado em atividades (ABC).Como resultado alcançado foi aplicado o tradicional método de custeio adotado para implementar um sistema de gestão de custos hospitalar, que é o custeio por absorção, pois o hospital em estudo não apresenta controle de custos e, portanto, o sistema tradicional é o mais adequado para uma primeira avaliação dos custos; para melhor visualização dos custos executados na atividade de saúde foi aplicado o critério de rateio por departamentalização dos custos indireto. Depende de cada hospital identificar qual o método mais adequado a sua estrutura organizacional. Em relação às considerações finais, sugeriu-se a utilização da departamentalização, que proporcionará ao Hospital Nelson Salles importantes informações gerenciais. No atual contexto organizacional, identificou-se que o recomendável é o método de custeio por absorção, por ser o mais tradicional, atender a legislação fiscal e demanda menores investimentos para sua implementação.

Environmental threats to children's health in Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific

The Southeast Asia and Western Pacific regions contain half of the world's children and are among the most rapidly industrializing regions of the globe. Environmental threats to children's health are widespread and are multiplying as nations in the area undergo industrial development and pass through the epidemiologic transition. These environmental hazards range from traditional threats such as bacterial contamination of drinking water and wood smoke in poorly ventilated dwellings to more recently introduced chemical threats such as asbestos construction materials; arsenic in groundwater; methyl isocyanate in Bhopal, India; untreated manufacturing wastes released to landfills; chlorinated hydrocarbon and organophosphorous pesticides; and atmospheric lead emissions from the combustion of leaded gasoline. To address these problems, pediatricians, environmental health scientists, and public health workers throughout Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific have begun to build local and national research and prevention programs in children's environmental health. Successes have been achieved as a result of these efforts: A cost-effective system for producing safe drinking water at the village level has been devised in India; many nations have launched aggressive antismoking campaigns; and Thailand, the Philippines, India, and Pakistan have all begun to reduce their use of lead in gasoline, with resultant declines in children's blood lead levels. The International Conference on Environmental Threats to the Health of Children, held in Bangkok, Thailand, in March 2002, brought together more than 300 representatives from 35 countries and organizations to increase awareness on environmental health hazards affecting children in these regions and throughout the world. The conference, a direct result of the Environmental Threats to the Health of Children meeting held in Manila in April 2000, provided participants with the latest scientific data on children's vulnerability to environmental hazards and models for future policy and public health discussions on ways to improve children's health. The Bangkok Statement, a pledge resulting from the conference proceedings, is an important first step in creating a global alliance committed to developing active and innovative national and international networks to promote and protect children's environmental health.

软件成本估算方法及应用

软件成本估算从20世纪60年代发展至今,在软件开发过程中一直扮演着重要角色.按照基于算法模型的方法、非基于算法模型的方法以及组合方法的分类方式,全面回顾、分析了软件成本估算的各种代表性方法,也归纳讨论了与成本估算强相关的软件规模度量问题.在此基础上,进一步研究了软件成本估算方法的评价标准,并给出了一个应用实例及其分析.最后,从估算模型、估算演进、估算应用、估算内容、工具支持和人为因素6个方面,指出了软件成本估算方法下一步的主要发展趋势.

基于度量工具的软件成本估算模型使用方法

输入的主观性以及输入过多是妨碍软件成本估算模型实际应用效果的重要影响因素.针对以上问题,提出了一种基于度量工具的软件成本估算模型使用方法.该方法通过引入统计理论中的工具变量,将度量工具所采集的度量元数据自动转换为软件成本估算模型的输入.这一方面可以避免模型校准和估算过程中输入的主观性与不一致性,提高了估算结果的准确性与可靠性;另一方面能减少估算人员的手工操作,提高工作效率,增加了软件成本估算模型的可用性.结合具体实例说明了所提出方法的可行性与有效性.

产品线成本模型的比较与分析

为给软件产品线决策者应用软件产品线模型提供理论上的参考,综合分析比较了近年来的20种软件产品线模型,在对软件产品线模型的投资循环、重用方式、货币时间价值、经济函数、成本因子和重用成本等方面因素进行细致分析的基础上提出了软件产品线模型的比较框架,在该框架内着重分析了其中5种典型的软件产品线模型,对应用软件产品线开发方式的成本估算和投资分析做了细致分析,并对当前软件产品线模型时存在的问题和发展方向进行了探讨.

基于InCoME的软件成本估算方法及支撑工具

软件成本估算领域经过四十余年的发展，涌现出一大批估算理论与方法，但都没有在现实环境中的软件企业中得到广泛应用，在项目早期进行软件成本估算仍旧是一件非常难的任务。由于估算模型的复杂性，缺乏相关的自动化的支撑工具及在现实软件企业中进行成本估算的应用研究是造成这一局面的一个重要原因。 本文从解决现实估算问题出发，提出了基于支撑工具的软件成本估算应用的具体框架。使用专家知识初始化模型，收集历史数据进行模型校准，并使用jack-knife交叉验证对模型进行精度分析。在建立可接受的模型后，收集待估算项目规模和成本因子数据，基于集成成本建模与估算（InCoME）方法，提供COCOMO、类比、回归等多种估算方法的支持。估算结果结合不确定性分析和风险分析，给项目计划和决策提供参考。成本估算应用框架形成一套完整和规范的流程，是一个现实可行的软件成本估算的解决方案。本文的另一贡献在于定制开发此应用框架的支撑工具，即集成成本建模与估算工具。在分析调研主流的软件成本估算工具的基础上，为配合估算应用框架，使用eclipse RCP和关系数据库，开发出层次清晰、可扩展性强、可维护性高、易升级易部署、界面友好的支撑工具。我们将基于支撑工具的软件成本估算应用框架应用于现实中的软件企业进行经验研究，经验研究结果表明，企业的软件成本估算得到了明显改善，支撑工具也被很好的接受。

软件成本估算及其不确定性研究

软件成本估算作为软件项目可行性分析、预算、计划以及控制的基础，是软件工程中的一个重要研究领域。自上世纪60年代以来，尽管软件成本估算一直受到研究者的持续关注，但在现实环境中软件成本估算仍然是软件行业面临的一项难题，仍然有很大的深入研究与改进空间。 现实环境下，软件成本估算方法需要接受不完整且不能完全确定的信息，估算可能的软件开发工作量与开发周期，并衡量估算结果的不确定性与风险。软件成本估算方法还需要满足为使用者创造价值、实施成本低、得到人文与技术上支撑等前提条件，才能在现实环境中被接受。成本估算的应用，也还需要随着项目的演进，与涉众协商、项目计划与项目监控过程密切互动。不能处理好现实环境中的不确定性，不能解决方法实施和应用中所面临的多种关键困难，是已提出的大量成本估算方法和模型难以在现实环境得到广泛使用并发挥影响的重要原因。 本文从确定问题、方法改进、方法应用、工具支撑等多个角度，对软件成本估算进行了较为系统的研究，为解决在现实环境改进成本估算现状所面临的关键困难，以及处理软件成本估算的不确定性这个核心问题，提出了一套包含方法、过程与支撑工具的比较系统、完整的针对实际需要的解决方案。本文研究工作的主要贡献包括： 1）提出软件成本估算的问题模型。设计并实施了中国软件行业的软件成本估算现状调查，探索了我国软件成本估算的现存问题，以及改进成本估算所面临的困难。结合文献综述与产业调查结果，运用“技术接受与使用模型”以及“结果链”等方法，提出软件成本估算的问题模型。涵盖技术、人文、经济与管理多个角度，系统地总结了软件成本估算所面临的问题和潜在的改进。 2）提出集成的成本估算方法。不同于目前估算方法均依赖某种固定估算模型，而是将多种子估算模型作为有用的信息输入，在不同环境下基于历史项目数据自动生成适应该环境的集成的估算模型。 3）针对成本估算在应用环节所面临的关键困难，提出了WikiWinWin软件项目多赢协商方法并开发相应的支持工具。帮助项目涉众正确认识并使用成本估算，促进项目演进过程中涉众协商、成本估算及项目计划与执行过程的有效融合，使成本估算更有效发挥作用。 4）提出了分析框架与相应的综合性方法以处理软件成本估算的不确定性。对软件成本估算的不确定性这个核心问题，进行了系统的分析。使用贝叶斯网络以及Monte Carlo仿真对现有估算模型进行扩展，以处理估算输入的不确定性；使用集成成本估算解决估算模型本身的不确定性；并在成本估算的应用环节，以WikiWinWin方法为核心处理软件成本估算的不确定性。 5）设计开发了软件成本建模与估算支撑工具。结合本文前面提出的成本估算方法形成了工具支撑下的集成的成本建模与估算方法（InCoME方法），在处理估算的不确定性、准确性、稳定性、客观与可重复性、透明性以及建模与估算的自动化支持方面都具有较好的能力，较为全面地满足了企业在现实环境中的需要。