Is there life in the old dogs yet? Making break-tests work on financial contagion

Many tests of financial contagion require a definition of the dates separating calm from crisis periods. We propose to use a battery of break search procedures for individual time series to objectively identify potential break dates in relationships between countries. Applied to the biggest European stock markets and combined with two well established tests for financial contagion, this approach results in break dates which correctly identify the timing of changes in cross-country transmission mechanisms. Application of break search procedures breathes new life into the established contagion tests, allowing for an objective, data-driven timing of crisis periods.

Determinants of pharmaceutical innovation diffusion: social contagion and prescribing characteristics

This article studies the determinants of pharmaceutical innovation diffusion among specialists. To this end, it investigates the influences of six categories of factors—social embeddedness, socio-demography, scientific orientation, prescribing patterns, practice characteristics, and patient panel composition—on the use of new drugs for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Hungary. Here, in line with international trends, 11 brands were introduced between April 2008 and April 2010, outperforming all other therapeutic classes. The Cox proportional hazards model identifies three determinants—social contagion (in the social embeddedness category) and prescribing portfolio and insulin prescribing ratio (in the prescribing pattern category). First, social contagion has a positive effect among geographically close colleagues—the higher the adoption ratio, the higher the likelihood of early adoption—but no influence among former classmates and scientific collaborators. Second, the wider the prescribing portfolio, the earlier the new drug uptake. Third, the lower the insulin prescribing ratio, the earlier the new drug uptake—physicians’ therapeutic convictions and patients’ socioeconomic statuses act as underlying influencers. However, this finding does not extend to opinion-leading physicians such as scientific leaders and hospital department and outpatient center managers. This article concludes by arguing that healthcare policy strategists and pharmaceutical companies may rely exclusively on practice location and prescription data to perfect interventions and optimize budgets.

Banking Contagion under Different Exchange Rate Regimes in CEE

The global crisis of 2008 caused both liquidity shortage and increasing insolvency in the banking system. The study focuses on credit default contagion in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, which originated in bank runs generated by non-performing loans granted to non-financial clients. In terms of methodology, the paper relies on one hand on review of the literature, and on the other hand on a data survey with comparative and regression analysis. To uncover credit default contagion, the research focuses on the combined impact of foreign exchange rates and foreign private indebtedness.

Banking Contagion under Different Exchange Rate Regimes in CEE

The global crisis of 2008 caused both liquidity shortage and increasing insolvency in the banking system. The study focuses on credit default contagion in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, which originated in bank runs generated by non-performing loans granted to non-financial clients. In terms of methodology, the paper relies on one hand on review of the literature, and on the other hand on a data survey with comparative and regression analysis. To uncover credit default contagion, the research focuses on the combined impact of foreign exchange rates and foreign private indebtedness.

An Interview with Tony David Sampson: Author of Virality: Contagion Theory in the Age of Networks

We are delighted to have the opportunity to talk with Tony about how his work touches on issues of imitation and contagion—a loaded term unpacked within his 2013 book.

ENGINEERING DIGITAL SHARING PLATFORM TO CREATE SOCIAL CONTAGION: EVIDENCE FROM LARGE SCALE RANDOMIZED FIELD EXPERIMENTS

Peer-to-peer information sharing has fundamentally changed customer decision-making process. Recent developments in information technologies have enabled digital sharing platforms to influence various granular aspects of the information sharing process. Despite the growing importance of digital information sharing, little research has examined the optimal design choices for a platform seeking to maximize returns from information sharing. My dissertation seeks to fill this gap. Specifically, I study novel interventions that can be implemented by the platform at different stages of the information sharing. In collaboration with a leading for-profit platform and a non-profit platform, I conduct three large-scale field experiments to causally identify the impact of these interventions on customers’ sharing behaviors as well as the sharing outcomes. The first essay examines whether and how a firm can enhance social contagion by simply varying the message shared by customers with their friends. Using a large randomized field experiment, I find that i) adding only information about the sender’s purchase status increases the likelihood of recipients’ purchase; ii) adding only information about referral reward increases recipients’ follow-up referrals; and iii) adding information about both the sender’s purchase as well as the referral rewards increases neither the likelihood of purchase nor follow-up referrals. I then discuss the underlying mechanisms. The second essay studies whether and how a firm can design unconditional incentive to engage customers who already reveal willingness to share. I conduct a field experiment to examine the impact of incentive design on sender’s purchase as well as further referral behavior. I find evidence that incentive structure has a significant, but interestingly opposing, impact on both outcomes. The results also provide insights about senders’ motives in sharing. The third essay examines whether and how a non-profit platform can use mobile messaging to leverage recipients’ social ties to encourage blood donation. I design a large field experiment to causally identify the impact of different types of information and incentives on donor’s self-donation and group donation behavior. My results show that non-profits can stimulate group effect and increase blood donation, but only with group reward. Such group reward works by motivating a different donor population. In summary, the findings from the three studies will offer valuable insights for platforms and social enterprises on how to engineer digital platforms to create social contagion. The rich data from randomized experiments and complementary sources (archive and survey) also allows me to test the underlying mechanism at work. In this way, my dissertation provides both managerial implication and theoretical contribution to the phenomenon of peer-to-peer information sharing.

Contagion in cybersecurity attacks

Systems security is essential for the efficient operation of all organizations. Indeed, most large firms employ a designated ‘Chief Information Security Officer’ to coordinate the operational aspects of the organization’s information security. Part of this role is in planning investment responses to information security threats against the firm’s corporate network infrastructure. To this end, we develop and estimate a vector equation system of threats to 10 important IP services, using industry standard SANS data on threats to various components of a firm’s information system over the period January 2003 – February 2011. Our results reveal strong evidence of contagion between such attacks, with attacks on ssh and Secure Web Server indicating increased attack activity on other ports. Security managers who ignore such contagious inter-relationships may underestimate the underlying risk to their systems’ defence of security attributes, such as sensitivity and criticality, and thus delay appropriate information security investments.

The magical contagion of guilt: The role of cleansing

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao ISPA - Instituto Universitário

Emotional contagion in consecutive interpreting: An empirical study with novice interpreters

It has recently been noticed that interpreters tend to converge with their speakers’ emotions under a process known as emotional contagion. Emotional contagion still represents an underinvestigated aspect of interpreting and the few studies on this topic have tended to focus more on simultaneous interpreting rather than consecutive interpreting. Korpal & Jasielska (2019) compared the emotional effects of one emotional and one neutral text on interpreters in simultaneous interpreting and found that interpreters tended to converge emotionally with the speaker more when interpreting the emotional text. This exploratory study follows their procedures to study the emotional contagion potentially caused by two texts among interpreters in consecutive interpreting: one emotionally neutral text and one negatively-valenced text, this last containing 44 negative words as triggers. Several measures were triangulated to determine whether the triggers in the negatively-valenced text could prompt a stronger emotional contagion in the consecutive interpreting of that text as compared to the consecutive interpreting of the emotionally neutral text, which contained no triggers—namely, the quality of the interpreters’ delivery; their heart rate variability values as collected with EMPATICA E4 wristbands; the analysis of their acoustic variations (i.e., disfluencies and rhetorical strategies); their linguistic and emotional management of the triggers; and their answers to the Italian version of the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) self-report questionnaire. Results showed no statistically significant evidence of an emotional contagion evoked by the triggers in the consecutive interpreting of the negative text as opposed to the consecutive interpreting of the neutral text. On the contrary, interpreters seemed to be more at ease while interpreting the negative text. This surprising result, together with other results of this project, suggests venues for further research.

The determinants of default risk in Brazil

We formulated a general unrestricted model of the Brazilian Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI+) spreads, a proxy for the country`s default risk. Employing algorithms that perform automated model selection, we found that macroeconomic fundamentals, such as current account deficit ratio to gross domestic product, public deficit ratio to gross domestic product and imports over foreign exchange reserves, can explain a great part of the variation in EMBI+ spreads. There is also robust evidence of systematic contagion from Argentina and Mexico and that the variance of the spread also affects its mean.

Customer emotions in service failure and recovery encounters

Emotions play a significant role in the workplace, and considerable attention has been given to the study of employee emotions. Customers also play a central function in organizations, but much less is known about customer emotions. This chapter reviews the growing literature on customer emotions in employee–customer interfaces with a focus on service failure and recovery encounters, where emotions are heightened. It highlights emerging themes and key findings, addresses the measurement, modeling, and management of customer emotions, and identifies future research streams. Attention is given to emotional contagion, relationships between affective and cognitive processes, customer anger, customer rage, and individual differences.

Oral lesions and immune reconstitution syndrome in HIV+/AIDS patients receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy. Epidemiological evidence

Objective: To determine whether opportunistic oral infections associated to HIV infection (OOI-HIV) are found in HIV+/AIDS patients with immune reconstitution related to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Methods. From among 1100 HIV+/AIDS patients (Service of Internal Medicine, Carlos Haya Hospital, Malaga, Spain) subjected to review of the oral cavity between January 1996 and May 2007, we identified those examined in 1996 and which were again examined between 1997 and 2007, and were moreover receiving HAART. The following data were collected: age, gender, form of contagion, antiretroviral therapy at the time of review, number of CD4+ lymphocytes/ml, and viral load (from 1997 onwards). We identified those subjects with an increase in CD4+ lymphocytes/ ml associated to HAART, and classified them as subjects with quantitative evidence of immune reconstitution (QEIR). Among these individuals with QEIR we moreover identified those with undetectable viral loads (QEIR+VL), and differentiated those patients with an increase in CD4+ lymphocytes > 500/ml (QEIRm+VL). In each group we determined the prevalence of OOI-HIV, following the diagnostic recommendations of the EC-Clearinghouse (CDC-Atlanta, USA - WHO). In addition, we analyzed the prevalence of OOI-HIV in the different groups in relation to the duration of HAART. Results. A total of 86 subjects were included (44 females and 42 males; 19 heterosexuals, 34 male homosexuals, and 33 intravenous drug abusers). Forty-two patients showed QEIR: 21 belonged to the QEIR+VL group, and 17 conformed the QEIRm+VL group. The prevalence of OOI-HIV per group was as follows: QEIR = 54.8%; QEIR+VL = 33%; QEIRm+VL = 35%. The most prevalent lesion in all groups was erythematous candidiasis. OOI-HIV increased with the duration of HAART (p=0.008), and were seen to be dependent upon late appearance of the mycotic lesions ( after 24 months under HAART). Conclusions: It is suggested that opportunistic oral infections associated to HIV infection form part of the clinical picture of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome, though such infections are of late onset.

"They're scared of it": Intergroup determinants of attitudes toward children with HIV

The study used an intergroup perspective to explore teachers' willingness to teach children with HIV within mainstream education. One hundred thirty-eight teachers from 13 high schools across the United Kingdom participated in a survey. The results suggest that previous contact with an individual who was HIV positive (whether an adult or a child) was strongly associated with greater willingness to teach a child with HIV. However, this effect disappeared when intergroup anxiety, positive affect, and positive beliefs were included as covariates. There was little evidence that instrumental variables (i.e., relatively pragmatic concerns about infection) were associated with willingness to teach. Participants who had some contact reported lower fear of contagion from a child with HIV, but there was no evidence that this was associated with overall attitudes. The results are interpreted to suggest that interventions to reduce prejudice should not simply concentrate on improving knowledge about HIV transmission.