Decision making in uncertain and changing environments

We consider an agent who has to repeatedly make choices in an uncertainand changing environment, who has full information of the past, who discountsfuture payoffs, but who has no prior. We provide a learning algorithm thatperforms almost as well as the best of a given finite number of experts orbenchmark strategies and does so at any point in time, provided the agentis sufficiently patient. The key is to find the appropriate degree of forgettingdistant past. Standard learning algorithms that treat recent and distant pastequally do not have the sequential epsilon optimality property.

Dynamics of Highway Bridges, HR-67, 1961

The AASHO specifications for highway bridges require that in designing a bridge, the live load must be multiplied by an impact factor for which a formula is given, dependent only upon the length of the bridge. This formula is a result of August Wohler's tests on fatigue in metals, in which he determined that metals which are subjected to large alternating loads will ultimately fail at lower stresses than those which are subjected only to continuous static loads. It is felt by some investigators that this present impact factor is not realistic, and it is suggested that a consideration of the increased stress due to vibrations caused by vehicles traversing the span would result in a more realistic impact factor than now exists. Since the current highway program requires a large number of bridges to be built, the need for data on dynamic behavior of bridges is apparent. Much excellent material has already been gathered on the subject, but many questions remain unanswered. This work is designed to investigate further a specific corner of that subject, and it is hoped that some useful light may be shed on the subject. Specifically this study hopes to correlate, by experiment on a small scale test bridge, the upper limits of impact utilizing a stationary, oscillating load to represent axle loads moving past a given point. The experiments were performed on a small scale bridge which is located in the basement of the Iowa Engineering Experiment Station. The bridge is a 25 foot simply supported span, 10 feet wide, supported by four beams with a composite concrete slab. It is assumed that the magnitude of the predominant forcing function is the same as the magnitude of the dynamic force produced by a smoothly rolling load, which has a frequency determined by the passage of axles. The frequency of passage of axles is defined as the speed of the vehicle divided by the axle spacing. Factors affecting the response of the bridge to this forcing function are the bridge stiffness and mass, which determine the natural frequency, and the effects of solid damping due to internal structural energy dissipation.

Multidimensional Adaptations for Open Learning Management Systems

Our work is focused on alleviating the workload for designers of adaptive courses on the complexity task of authoring adaptive learning designs adjusted to specific user characteristics and the user context. We propose an adaptation platform that consists in a set of intelligent agents where each agent carries out an independent adaptation task. The agents apply machine learning techniques to support the user modelling for the adaptation process

Learning in Product Development Projects - Responding to challenges in global industrial company

Verkostoitunut kansainvälinen tuotekehitys on tärkeä osa menestystä nykypäivän muuttuvassa yritysmaailmassa. Toimintojen tehostamiseksi myös projektitoiminnot on sopeutettava kansainväliseen toimintaympäristöön. Kilpailukyvyn säilyttämiseksi projektitoimintoja on lisäksi jatkuvasti tehostettava. Yhtenäkeinona nähdään projektioppiminen, jota voidaan edistää monin eri tavoin. Tässätyössä keskitytään projektitiedonhallinnan kehittämisen tuomiin oppimismahdollisuuksiin. Kirjallisuudessa kerrotaan, että projektitiedon jakaminen ja sen hyödyntäminen seuraavissa projekteissa on eräs projektioppimisen edellytyksistä. Tämäon otettu keskeiseksi näkökulmaksi tässä tutkimuksessa. Lisäksi tutkimusalueen rajaamiseksi työ tarkastelee erityisesti projektioppimista kansainvälisten tuotekehitysprojektien välillä. Työn tavoitteena on esitellä keskeisiä projektioppimisen haasteita ja etsiä konkreettinen ratkaisu vastaamaan näihin haasteisiin. Tuotekehitystoiminnot ja kansainvälinen hajautettu projektiorganisaatio kohtaavat lisäksi erityisiä haasteita, kuten tiedon hajautuneisuus, projektihenkilöstön vaihtuvuus, tiedon luottamuksellisuus ja maantieteelliset haasteet (esim. aikavyöhykkeet ja toimipisteen sijainti). Nämä erityishaasteet on otettu huomioon ratkaisua etsittäessä. Haasteisiin päädyttiin vastaamaan tietotekniikkapohjaisella ratkaisulla, joka suunniteltiin erityisesti huomioiden esimerkkiorganisaation tarpeet ja haasteet. Työssä tarkastellaan suunnitellun ratkaisun vaikutusta projektioppimiseen ja kuinka se vastaa havaittuihin haasteisiin. Tuloksissa huomattiin, että projektioppimista tapahtui, vaikka oppimista oli vaikea suoranaisesti huomata tutkimusorganisaation jäsenten keskuudessa. Projektioppimista voidaan kuitenkin sanoa tapahtuvan, jos projektitieto on helposti koko projektiryhmän saatavilla ja se on hyvin järjesteltyä. Muun muassa nämä ehdot täyttyivät. Projektioppiminen nähdään yleisesti haastavana kehitysalueena esimerkkiorganisaatiossa. Suuri osa tietämyksestä on niin sanottua hiljaistatietoa, jota on hankala tai mahdoton saattaa kirjalliseen muotoon. Näin olleen tiedon siirtäminen jää suurelta osin henkilökohtaisen vuorovaikutuksen varaan. Siitä huolimatta projektioppimista on mahdollista kehittää erilaisin toimintamallein ja menetelmin. Kehitys vaatii kuitenkin resursseja, pitkäjänteisyyttä ja aikaa. Monet muutokset voivat vaatia myös organisaatiokulttuurin muutoksen ja vaikuttamista organisaation jäseniin. Motivaatio, positiiviset mielikuvat ja selkeät strategiset tavoitteet luovat vakaan pohjan projektioppimisen kehittämiselle.

Metadata for describing learning scenarios under European Higher Education Area paradigm

In this paper we identify the requirements for creating formal descriptions of learning scenarios designed under the European HigherEducation Area paradigm, using competences and learning activities as the basic pieces of the learning process, instead of contents and learning resources, pursuing personalization. Classical arrangements of content based courses are no longer enough to describe all the richness of this new learning process, where user profiles, competences and complex hierarchical itineraries need to be properly combined. We study the intersection with the current IMS Learning Design specification and theadditional metadata required for describing such learning scenarios. This new approach involves the use of case based learning and collaborativelearning in order to acquire and develop competences, following adaptive learning paths in two structured levels.

Kernel-Based Ranking. Methods for Learning and Performance Estimation

Machine learning provides tools for automated construction of predictive models in data intensive areas of engineering and science. The family of regularized kernel methods have in the recent years become one of the mainstream approaches to machine learning, due to a number of advantages the methods share. The approach provides theoretically well-founded solutions to the problems of under- and overfitting, allows learning from structured data, and has been empirically demonstrated to yield high predictive performance on a wide range of application domains. Historically, the problems of classification and regression have gained the majority of attention in the field. In this thesis we focus on another type of learning problem, that of learning to rank. In learning to rank, the aim is from a set of past observations to learn a ranking function that can order new objects according to how well they match some underlying criterion of goodness. As an important special case of the setting, we can recover the bipartite ranking problem, corresponding to maximizing the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in binary classification. Ranking applications appear in a large variety of settings, examples encountered in this thesis include document retrieval in web search, recommender systems, information extraction and automated parsing of natural language. We consider the pairwise approach to learning to rank, where ranking models are learned by minimizing the expected probability of ranking any two randomly drawn test examples incorrectly. The development of computationally efficient kernel methods, based on this approach, has in the past proven to be challenging. Moreover, it is not clear what techniques for estimating the predictive performance of learned models are the most reliable in the ranking setting, and how the techniques can be implemented efficiently. The contributions of this thesis are as follows. First, we develop RankRLS, a computationally efficient kernel method for learning to rank, that is based on minimizing a regularized pairwise least-squares loss. In addition to training methods, we introduce a variety of algorithms for tasks such as model selection, multi-output learning, and cross-validation, based on computational shortcuts from matrix algebra. Second, we improve the fastest known training method for the linear version of the RankSVM algorithm, which is one of the most well established methods for learning to rank. Third, we study the combination of the empirical kernel map and reduced set approximation, which allows the large-scale training of kernel machines using linear solvers, and propose computationally efficient solutions to cross-validation when using the approach. Next, we explore the problem of reliable cross-validation when using AUC as a performance criterion, through an extensive simulation study. We demonstrate that the proposed leave-pair-out cross-validation approach leads to more reliable performance estimation than commonly used alternative approaches. Finally, we present a case study on applying machine learning to information extraction from biomedical literature, which combines several of the approaches considered in the thesis. The thesis is divided into two parts. Part I provides the background for the research work and summarizes the most central results, Part II consists of the five original research articles that are the main contribution of this thesis.

A note on the Pazos-Simonsen mechanism and Kaldor's early research on Latin American inflation

In contrast with the inflationary finance story, inflation acceleration in Latin America has been explained as the result of the interaction of inflation dynamics and the frequency of wage adjustments. Accordingly, small inflation disturbances are connected with a shift from moderate to high inflation (or beyond to hyperinflation) though a mechanism that makes adjustment intervals in wage contracts endogenous. Rudiger Dornbusch (1986) labeled this process the "Pazos-Simonsen mechanism". In this note we summarize the basic contribution of both Felipe Pazos (1978) and Mario Henrique Simonsen (1983) and find crucial differences between their views on wage dynamics, specifically regarding the endogeneity of the time interval between wage readjustments. A remarkable affinity with Pazos's view on wage dynamics and inflation is found in an early and almost unknown essay written by Nicholas Kaldor in 1957 (inspired in his brief experience in Latin America).

Explicit/implicit training of cooperative learning with junior elementary students /

This experimental study examined the effects of cooperative learning and expliciUimpliGit instruction on student achievement and attitudes toward working in cooperative groups. Specifically, fourth- and fifth-grade students (n=48) were randomly assigned to two conditions: cooperative learning with explicit instruction and cooperative learning with implicit instruction. All participants were given initial training either explicitly or implicitly in cooperative learning procedures via 10 one-hour sessions. Following the instruction period, all students participated in completing a group project related to a famous artists unit. It was hypothesized that the explicit instruction training would enhance students' scores on the famous artists test and the group projects, as well as improve students' attitudes toward cooperative learning. Although the explicit training group did not achieve significantly higher scores on the famous artists test, significant differences were found in group project results between the explicit and implicit groups. The explicit group also exhibited more favourable and positive attitudes toward cooperative learning. The findings of this study demonstrate that combining cooperative learning with explicit instruction is an effective classroom strategy and a useful practice for presenting and learning new information, as well as working in groups with success.

Evolution of Various Library Instruction Strategies: Using Student Feedback to Create and Enhance Online Active Learning Assignments

This case study traces the evolution of library assignments for biological science students from paper-based workbooks in a blended (hands-on) workshop to blended learning workshops using online assignments to online active learning modules which are stand-alone without any face-to-face instruction. As the assignments evolved to adapt to online learning supporting materials in the form of PDFs (portable document format), screen captures and screencasting were embedded into the questions as teaching moments to replace face-to-face instruction. Many aspects of the evolution of the assignment were based on student feedback from evaluations, input from senior lab demonstrators and teaching assistants, and statistical analysis of the students’ performance on the assignment. Advantages and disadvantages of paper-based and online assignments are discussed. An important factor for successful online learning may be the ability to get assistance.

Sectoral Price Rigidity and Aggregate Dynamics

In this paper, we study the macroeconomic implications of sectoral heterogeneity and, in particular, heterogeneity in price setting, through the lens of a highly disaggregated multi-sector model. The model incorporates several realistic features and is estimated using a mix of aggregate and sectoral U.S. data. The frequencies of price changes implied by our estimates are remarkably consistent with those reported in micro-based studies, especially for non-sale prices. The model is used to study (i) the contribution of sectoral characteristics to the observed cross sectional heterogeneity in sectoral output and inflation responses to a monetary policy shock, (ii) the implications of sectoral price rigidity for aggregate output and inflation dynamics and for cost pass-through, and (iii) the role of sectoral shocks in explaining sectoral prices and quantities.

Single Frame Image Super Resolution Using Learned Directionlets

In this paper, a new directionally adaptive, learning based, single image super resolution method using multiple direction wavelet transform, called Directionlets is presented. This method uses directionlets to effectively capture directional features and to extract edge information along different directions of a set of available high resolution images .This information is used as the training set for super resolving a low resolution input image and the Directionlet coefficients at finer scales of its high-resolution image are learned locally from this training set and the inverse Directionlet transform recovers the super-resolved high resolution image. The simulation results showed that the proposed approach outperforms standard interpolation techniques like Cubic spline interpolation as well as standard Wavelet-based learning, both visually and in terms of the mean squared error (mse) values. This method gives good result with aliased images also.

Multidimensional Adaptations for Open Learning Management Systems

Our work is focused on alleviating the workload for designers of adaptive courses on the complexity task of authoring adaptive learning designs adjusted to specific user characteristics and the user context. We propose an adaptation platform that consists in a set of intelligent agents where each agent carries out an independent adaptation task. The agents apply machine learning techniques to support the user modelling for the adaptation process

Análisis del ciclo económico en una economía con rigideces nominales y un amplio sector informal

En este trabajo se construye un modelo de Equilibrio General Dinámico Estocástico (DSGE) con sector informal y rigideces en precios, usando como marco de análisis la teoría de búsqueda y emparejamiento del mercado de trabajo. El objetivo principal es analizar el efecto de los diferentes tipos de choques económicos sobre las principales variables del mercado laboral, en una economía con presencia importante del sector informal. Igualmente se estudia el efecto de la política monetaria, ya que la presencia de este sector afecta la dinámica del ciclo económico, y por ende los mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria. En particular, se analiza la dinámica del modelo bajo diferentes reglas de política monetaria y se compara el bienestar agente representativo generado por cada una de estas reglas.

The relationship between multi-species catch and effort: among fishery comparisons

The control of fishing mortality via fishing effort remains fundamental to most fisheries management strategies even at the local community or co-management level. Decisions to support such strategies require knowledge of the underlying response of the catch to changes in effort. Even under adaptive management strategies, imprecise knowledge of the response is likely to help accelerate the adaptive learning process. Data and institutional capacity requirements to employ multi-species biomass dynamics and age-structured models invariably render their use impractical particularly in less developed regions of the world. Surplus production models fitted to catch and effort data aggregated across all species offer viable alternatives. The current paper seeks models of this type that best describe the multi-species catch–effort responses in floodplain-rivers, lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries based upon among fishery comparisons, building on earlier work. Three alternative surplus production models were fitted to estimates of catch per unit area (CPUA) and fisher density for 258 fisheries in Africa, Asia and South America. In all cases examined, the best or equal best fitting model was the Fox type, explaining up to 90% of the variation in CPUA. For lake and reservoir fisheries in Africa and Asia, the Schaefer and an asymptotic model fitted equally well. The Fox model estimates of fisher density (fishers km−2) at maximum yield (iMY) for floodplain-rivers, African lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries are 13.7 (95% CI [11.8, 16.4]); 27.8 (95% CI [17.5, 66.7]) and 643 (95% CI [459,1075]), respectively and compare well with earlier estimates. Corresponding estimates of maximum yield are also given. The significantly higher value of iMY for reef-based fisheries compared to estimates for rivers and lakes reflects the use of a different measure of fisher density based upon human population size estimates. The models predict that maximum yield is achieved at a higher fishing intensity in Asian lakes compared to those in Africa. This may reflect the common practice in Asia of stocking lakes to augment natural recruitment. Because of the equilibrium assumptions underlying the models, all the estimates of maximum yield and corresponding levels of effort should be treated with caution.

Articulation of information requirements for personalised knowledge and construction

The quality of information provision influences considerably knowledge construction driven by individual users’ needs. In the design of information systems for e-learning, personal information requirements should be incorporated to determine a selection of suitable learning content, instructive sequencing for learning content, and effective presentation of learning content. This is considered as an important part of instructional design for a personalised information package. The current research reveals that there is a lack of means by which individual users’ information requirements can be effectively incorporated to support personal knowledge construction. This paper presents a method which enables an articulation of users’ requirements based on the rooted learning theories and requirements engineering paradigms. The user’s information requirements can be systematically encapsulated in a user profile (i.e. user requirements space), and further transformed onto instructional design specifications (i.e. information space). These two spaces allow the discovering of information requirements patterns for self-maintaining and self-adapting personalisation that enhance experience in the knowledge construction process.