Análisis al Proceso de Titulación Minera en Colombia desde TOC (Theory Of Constraints)

El incumplimiento reiterado de la normatividad y políticas relacionadas con los tiempos de respuesta del proceso de contratación minera del país, desarrollado actualmente por la recién creada Agencia Nacional de Minería ANM, ha suscitado que la administración del recurso minero no se realice bajo los principios de eficiencia, eficacia, economía y celeridad. Estas debilidades manifiestas provocan represamientos en la resolución de trámites, congelación de áreas para contratar, sobrecostos, demoras en los tiempos de respuesta establecidos por la normatividad vigente y trae como consecuencia incertidumbre en los inversionistas mineros y pérdidas por concepto de recaudo de canon superficiario, entre otras. El objetivo del presente trabajo de investigación consiste en analizar el proceso de titulación minera de Colombia a partir de la filosofía de mejora continua desarrollado en la teoría de restricciones TOC (Theory Of Constraints), para poder identificar cuáles son los cuellos de botella que no permiten que el proceso fluya de manera adecuada y proponer alternativas de mejora, que con su implementación exploten y subordinen la limitaciones al sistema.

Gobernanza Democrática Territorial - Una aproximación analítica y cuantitativa

La Gobernanza Democrática Territorial (GDT) constituye un enfoque conceptual en torno a las formas de “organización” de los agentes locales y regionales, que se expresa en un modelo o modo de gobierno. Este enfoque emerge desde la década de los años noventa como una opción ó una alternativa frente a otros modelos de gobierno (el modelo burocrático y el modelo gerencial). La diferencia entre este concepto y otros afines – como la gobernabilidad, la gobernabilidad democrática y el buen gobierno – no es de grado sino de naturaleza. Así se deriva del análisis comparado entre estos conceptos.

Perfil de mercado de la Unión Europea y los países de la EFTA

El presente trabajo de grado busca evaluar el perfil del mercado de la Unión Europea y los países de la EFTA para identificar las oportunidades comerciales de Colombia, más específicamente en los siguientes países: Suiza, Noruega, Liechtenstein, Islandia, Republica Checa, Rumania y Suecia. A través de esta investigación se realizó un análisis de los 25 productos más exportados de Colombia a cada uno de los países estudiados, tomando en cuenta sus códigos arancelarios. Adicionalmente, se evaluaron las balanzas comerciales de cada uno de los países, las tendencias de las exportaciones Colombianas de los últimos años, y las posibles oportunidades de mercados teniendo en cuenta las necesidades de importaciones detalladas de cada país europeo. A partir de la información encontrada la investigación se concentró en la proveniencia exacta del departamento Colombiano que hacia las exportaciones de los 25 productos más representativos a cada uno de los países evaluados. Teniendo en cuenta esta información, se evaluó por departamento, las oportunidades y perfiles de mercado de exportación hacia Suiza, Noruega, Liechtenstein, Islandia, Republica Checa, Rumania y Suecia. Finalmente se identificaron los 10 productos más exportados de Colombia a cada uno de los países analizados, con el fin de enfocar las mejoras y potencializar las exportaciones de estos productos a los países europeos evaluados. Adicionalmente durante la investigación se realizan recomendaciones específicas por país y al final del documento se encuentran las conclusiones generales y recomendaciones principales para futuras exportaciones de Colombia a los países de la EFTA, República Checa, Rumania y Suecia.

On the design of education conditional cash transfer programs and non education outcomes: the case of teenage pregnancy

We investigate the effect of education Conditional Cash Transfer programs (CCTs) on teenage pregnancy. Our main concern is with how the size and sign of the effect may depend on the design of the program. Using a simple model we show that an education CCT that conditions renewal on school performance reduces teenage pregnancy; the program can increase teenage pregnancy if it does not condition on school performance. Then, using an original data base, we estimate the causal impact on teenage pregnancy of two education CCTs implemented in Bogot´a (Subsidio Educativo, SE, and Familias en Acci´on, FA); both programs differ particularly on whether school success is a condition for renewal or not. We show that SE has negative average effect on teenage pregnancy while FA has a null average effect. We also find that SE has either null or no effect for adolescents in all age and grade groups while FA has positive, null or negative effects for adolescents in different age and grade groups. Since SE conditions renewal on school success and FA does not, we can argue that the empirical results are consistent with the predictions of our model and that conditioning renewal of the subsidy on school success crucially determines the effect of the subsidy on teenage pregnancy

On the exhaustiveness of truncation and dropping strategies in many-to-many matching markets

We consider two–sided many–to–many matching markets in which each worker may work for multiple firms and each firm may hire multiple workers. We study individual and group manipulations in centralized markets that employ (pairwise) stable mechanisms and that require participants to submit rank order lists of agents on the other side of the market. We are interested in simple preference manipulations that have been reported and studied in empirical and theoretical work: truncation strategies, which are the lists obtained by removing a tail of least preferred partners from a preference list, and the more general dropping strategies, which are the lists obtained by only removing partners from a preference list (i.e., no reshuffling). We study when truncation / dropping strategies are exhaustive for a group of agents on the same side of the market, i.e., when each match resulting from preference manipulations can be replicated or improved upon by some truncation / dropping strategies. We prove that for each stable mechanism, truncation strategies are exhaustive for each agent with quota 1 (Theorem 1). We show that this result cannot be extended neither to group manipulations (even when all quotas equal 1 – Example 1), nor to individual manipulations when the agent’s quota is larger than 1 (even when all other agents’ quotas equal 1 – Example 2). Finally, we prove that for each stable mechanism, dropping strategies are exhaustive for each group of agents on the same side of the market (Theorem 2), i.e., independently of the quotas.

Poor people and risky business

We try to explain why economic conflicts and illegal business often take place in poor countries. We use the concept of subsistence level of consumption (d) and assume a regular concave utility function for consumption levels higher than d. For consumption levels lower than d utility is constant and equal to zero. Under this framework poor agents are risk-lovers. This result helps to explain why economic conflicts are more likely to appear in poor economies and why poor agents are more willing to undertake illegal business.

Publicness of goods and violent conflict : evidence from Colombia

How the degree of publicness of goods affect violent conflict? Based on the theoretical model in Esteban and Ray (2001) we find that the effect of the degree of publicness depends on the group size. When the group is small (large), the degree of publicness increases (decreases) the likelihood of conflict. This opens an empirical question that we tackle using microdata from the Colombian conflict at the municipality level. We use three goods with different publicness degree to identify the sign of the effect of publicness on conflict. These goods are coca crops (private good), road density (public good subject to congestion) and average education quality (a purer public good). After dealing with endogeneity issues using an IV approach, we find that the degree of publicness reduces the likelihood of both paramilitary and guerrilla attacks. Moreover, coca production exacerbates conflict and the provision of both public goods mitigates conflict. These results are robust to size, geographical, and welfare controls. Policies that improve public goods provision will help to fight the onset of conflict.

Seasons, savings and GDP

The industrial revolution and the subsequent industrialization of the economies occurred Orst in temperate regions. We argue that this and the associated positive correlation between absolute latitude and GDP per capita is due to the fact that countries located far from the equator suffered more profound seasonal auctuations in climate, namely stronger and longer winters. We propose a growth model of biased innovations that accounts for these facts and show that countries located in temperate regions were more likely to create or adopt capital intensive modes of production. The intuition behind this result is that savings are used to smooth consumption; therefore, in places where output auctuations are more profound, savings are bigger. Because the incentives to innovate depend on the relative supply factors, economies where savings are bigger are more likely to create or adopt capital intensive technologies.

Small-area variation in health care affecting the choice of cesarean delivery: the case of a Colombian health insurer

In the midst of health care reform, Colombia has succeeded in increasing health insurance coverage and the quality of health care. In spite of this, efficiency continues to be a matter of concern, and small-area variations in health care are one of the plausible causes of such inefficiencies. In order to understand this issue, we use individual data of all births from a Contributory-Regimen insurer in Colombia. We perform two different specifications of a multilevel logistic regression model. Our results reveal that hospitals account for 20% of variation on the probability of performing cesarean sections. Geographic area only explains 1/3 of the variance attributable to the hospital. Furthermore, some variables from both demand and supply sides are found to be also relevant on the probability of undergoing cesarean sections. This paper contributes to previous research by using a hierarchical model and by defining hospitals as cluster. Moreover, we also include clinical and supply induced demand variables.

The balassa-samuelson hypothesis and elderly migration

We present an Overlapping Generations Model with two final goods: tradable goods are produced with a standard Cobb-Douglas production function and non-tradable goods are produced with linear production function where the only factor is labor. We maintain the fundamental assumption of factor mobility between sectors so model is consistent with the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis. Given the general equilibrium structure of our model we can examine the effect of the saving rate on migration and non-tradable relative prices. Under this setting, we find that the elderly have incentives to migrate from economies where productivity is high to economies with low productivity because of the lower cost of living. In more general terms the elderly migration is likely to go from rich to poor countries. We also find that, for poor countries, the elderly migration has a positive effect in wages and capital accumulation.

Aseguramiento para la población pobre: una herramienta de protección financiera

La financiación de los sistemas de salud en los países en desarrollo mediante esquemas de aseguramiento, presenta el desafío estructural de la informalidad de los mercados laborales. Ni el esquema de financiamiento comunitario ni el del subsidio a la oferta, parecen ofrecer una garantía de acceso a los grupos más vulnerables. Pero la extensión de esquemas de seguro subsidiado también implica mayores presiones sobre el gasto social. Este artículo es una revisión de la literatura sobre el tema, en el cual se revisan experiencias internacionales de los tipos mencionados, y se analiza su relevancia para Colombia.

Asymmetrically fair rules for an indivisible good problem with a budget constraint

We study a particular restitution problem where there is an indivisible good (land or property) over which two agents have rights: the dispossessed agent and the owner. A third party, possibly the government, seeks to resolve the situation by assigning rights to one and compensate the other. There is also a maximum amount of money available for the compensation. We characterize a family of asymmetrically fair rules that are immune to strategic behavior, guarantee minimal welfare levels for the agents, and satisfy the budget constraint.

Beyond divide and rule : weak dictators, natural resources and civil conflict

We propose a model where an autocrat rules over an ethnically divided society. The dictator selects the tax rate over domestic production and the nation’s natural resources to maximize his rents under the threat of a regime-switching revolution. We show that a weak ruler may let the country plunge in civil war to increase his personal rents. Inter-group fighting weakens potential opposition to the ruler, thereby allowing him to increase fiscal pressure. We show that the presence of natural resources exacerbates the incentives of the ruler to promote civil conflict for his own profit, especially if the resources are unequally distributed across ethnic groups. We validate the main predictions of the model using cross-country data over the period 1960-2007, and show that our empirical results are not likely to be driven by omitted observable determinants of civil war incidence or by unobservable country-specific heterogeneity.

Conflict, wages, and multiple equilibria

Firms’ compensation practices affect the protection of investors’ interests and the degree of economic inequality by changing the stakes of engaging in appropriation activities versus respecting the status quo. We use a general equilibrium model where workers can either work peacefully or join a guerrilla movement that expropriates entrepreneurs. If workers are peaceful, they receive a competitive wage. If they join a guerrilla movement, they receive a share of the appropriated wealth, which depends positively on the number of guerrilla members. In this framework, we find one low-income, low-wage equilibrium with guerrilla activity and one peaceful, high-income, high-wage equilibrium. The peaceful equilibrium can be reached through redistribution policies, which can be implemented at the firm level. In essence, through their compensation policies entrepreneurs, not the state might be able to protect their assets against expropriation and simultaneously control the internal principal-agent problem.

Controlling regional monopolies in the natural gas industry: the role of transport capacity

This paper analyzes some optimal fiscal, pricing, and capacity investment policies for controlling regional monopoly power in the natural gas industry. By letting the set of control instruments available to the social planner vary, we provide a characterization of the technological and demand conditions under which “excess” capacity in the transport network arises in response to the loss of the two other control instruments, namely, transfers and pricing. Hence, the analysis yields some insights on an economy’s incentives to invest in infrastructures for the purpose of integrating geographically isolated markets.