The effect of temperature on height growth of Scots pine in northern Finland

The effect of temperature on height growth of Scots pine in the northern boreal zone in Lapland was studied in two different time scales. Intra-annual growth was monitored in four stands in up to four growing seasons using an approximately biweekly measurement interval. Inter-annual growth was studied using growth records representing seven stands and five geographical locations. All the stands were growing on a dry to semi-dry heath that is a typical site type for pine stands in Finland. The applied methodology is based on applied time-series analysis and multilevel modelling. Intra-annual elongation of the leader shoot correlated with temperature sum accumulation. Height growth ceased when, on average, 41% of the relative temperature sum of the site was achieved (observed minimum and maximum were 38% and 43%). The relative temperature sum was calculated by dividing the actual temperature sum by the long-term mean of the total annual temperature sum for the site. Our results suggest that annual height growth ceases when a location-specific temperature sum threshold is attained. The positive effect of the mean July temperature of the previous year on annual height increment proved to be very strong at high latitudes. The mean November temperature of the year before the previous had a statistically significantly effect on height increment in the three northernmost stands. The effect of mean monthly precipitation on annual height growth was statistically insignificant. There was a non-linear dependence between length and needle density of annual shoots. Exceptionally low height growth results in high needle-density, but the effect is weaker in years of average or good height growth. Radial growth and next year s height growth are both largely controlled by current July temperature. Nevertheless, their growth variation in terms of minimum and maximum is not necessarily strongly correlated. This is partly because height growth is more sensitive to changes in temperature. In addition, the actual effective temperature period is not exactly the same for these two growth components. Yet, there is a long-term balance that was also statistically distinguishable; radial growth correlated significantly with height growth with a lag of 2 years. Temperature periods shorter than a month are more effective variables than mean monthly values, but the improvement is on the scale of modest to good when applying Julian days or growing-degree-days as pointers.

R-parameter: A local truncation error based adaptive framework for finite volume compressible flow solvers

A residual-based strategy to estimate the local truncation error in a finite volume framework for steady compressible flows is proposed. This estimator, referred to as the -parameter, is derived from the imbalance arising from the use of an exact operator on the numerical solution for conservation laws. The behaviour of the residual estimator for linear and non-linear hyperbolic problems is systematically analysed. The relationship of the residual to the global error is also studied. The -parameter is used to derive a target length scale and consequently devise a suitable criterion for refinement/derefinement. This strategy, devoid of any user-defined parameters, is validated using two standard test cases involving smooth flows. A hybrid adaptive strategy based on both the error indicators and the -parameter, for flows involving shocks is also developed. Numerical studies on several compressible flow cases show that the adaptive algorithm performs excellently well in both two and three dimensions.

Optimal simultaneous maximum a posterioriestimation of states, noise statistics and parameters I. Algorithm

The simultaneous state and parameter estimation problem for a linear discrete-time system with unknown noise statistics is treated as a large-scale optimization problem. The a posterioriprobability density function is maximized directly with respect to the states and parameters subject to the constraint of the system dynamics. The resulting optimization problem is too large for any of the standard non-linear programming techniques and hence an hierarchical optimization approach is proposed. It turns out that the states can be computed at the first levelfor given noise and system parameters. These, in turn, are to be modified at the second level.The states are to be computed from a large system of linear equations and two solution methods are considered for solving these equations, limiting the horizon to a suitable length. The resulting algorithm is a filter-smoother, suitable for off-line as well as on-line state estimation for given noise and system parameters. The second level problem is split up into two, one for modifying the noise statistics and the other for modifying the system parameters. An adaptive relaxation technique is proposed for modifying the noise statistics and a modified Gauss-Newton technique is used to adjust the system parameters.

Turning up the Heat on Admissions: A Study of the Impacts of Extreme Heat Events on Tasmanian Hospital Admissions 2003-2010

Introduction: Extreme heat events (both heat waves and extremely hot days) are increasing in frequency and duration globally and cause more deaths in Australia than any other extreme weather event. Numerous studies have demonstrated a link between extreme heat events and an increased risk of morbidity and death. In this study, the researchers sought to identify if extreme heat events in the Tasmanian population were associated with any changes in emergency department admissions to the Royal Hobart Hospital (RHH) for the period 2003-2010. Methods: Non-identifiable RHH emergency department data and climate data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology were obtained for the period 2003-2010. Statistical analyses were conducted using the computer statistical computer software ‘R’ with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) package used to fit a quassi-Poisson generalised linear regression model. Results: This study showed that RR of admission to RHH during 2003-2010 was significant over temperatures of 24 C with a lag effect lasting 12 days and main effect noted one day after the extreme heat event. Discussion: This study demonstrated that extreme heat events have a significant impact on public hospital admissions. Two limitations were identified: admissions data rather than presentations data were used and further analysis could be done to compare types of admissions and presentations between heat and non-heat events. Conclusion: With the impacts of climate change already being felt in Australia, public health organisations in Tasmania and the rest of Australia need to implement adaptation strategies to enhance resilience to protect the public from the adverse health effects of heat events and climate change.

Pressure dependence of 35Cl nuclear quadrupole resonance in 2,5-, 2,6- and 3,5-dichlorophenols

Pressure dependence of the 35Cl Nuclear Quadrupole Resonances (N.Q.R.) in 2,5-, 2,6- and 3,5-dichlorophenols (DCP) has been studied up to a pressure of about 6·5 kbar at room temperature. While the pressure dependence of the two resonance lines in 2,6-DCP is essentially similar, the lower frequency line in 2,5-DCP is almost pressure independent and the higher frequency line shows a linear variation with pressure upto about 3·5 kbar but shows a negative pressure coefficient beyond this pressure. The two lines in 3,5-DCP have a non-linear pressure dependence with the curvature changing smoothly with pressure. The pressure coefficient for both lines becomes negative beyond a pressure of 5 kbar. The pressure dependence of the N.Q.R. frequencies is discussed in relation to intra- and inter-molecular contacts. Also, a thermodynamic analysis of the data is carried out to determine the constant volume temperature derivative of the N.Q.R. frequency.

Estimating an Aggregate Economic Genotype to Facilitate Breeding and Selection of Strawberry Genotypes in Southeast Queensland

The Queensland strawberry (Fragaria ×ananassa) breeding program in subtropical Australia aims to improve sustainable profitability for the producer. Selection must account for the relative economic importance of each trait and the genetic architecture underlying these traits in the breeding population. Our study used estimates of the influence of a trait on production costs and profitability to develop a profitability index (PI) and an economic weight (i.e., change in PI for a unit change in level of trait) for each trait. The economic weights were then combined with the breeding values for 12 plant and fruit traits on over 3000 genotypes that were represented in either the current breeding population or as progenitors in the pedigree of these individuals. The resulting linear combination (i.e., sum of economic weight × breeding value for all 12 traits) estimated the overall economic worth of each genotype as H, the aggregate economic genotype. H values were validated by comparisons among commercial cultivars and were also compared with the estimated gross margins. When the H value of ‘Festival’ was set as zero, the H values of genotypes in the pedigree ranged from –0.36 to +0.28. H was highly correlated (R2 = 0.77) with the year of selection (1945–98). The gross margins were highly linearly related (R2 > 0.98) to H values when the genotype was planted on less than 50% of available area, but the relationship was non-linear [quadratic with a maximum (R2 > 0.96)] when the planted area exceeded 50%. Additionally, with H values above zero, the variation in gross margin increased with increasing H values as the percentage of area planted to a genotype increased. High correlations among some traits allowed the omission of any one of three of the 12 traits with little or no effect on ranking (Spearman’s rank correlation 0.98 or greater). Thus, these traits may be dropped from the aggregate economic genotype, leading to either cost reductions in the breeding program or increased selection intensities for the same resources. H was efficient in identifying economically superior genotypes for breeding and deployment, but because of the non-linear relationship with gross margin, calculation of a gross margin for genotypes with high H is also necessary when cultivars are deployed across more than 50% of the available area.

Analysis of two degrees of freedom systems through weighted mean square linearization approach

In this paper a study of the free, forced and self-excited vibrations of non-linear, two degrees of freedom systems is reported. The responses are obtained by linearizing the nonlinear equations using the weighted mean square linearization approach. The scope of this approach, in terms of the type of non-linearities the method can tackle, is also discussed.

Generalised growth models for aquatic species with an application to blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra)

This paper presents a maximum likelihood method for estimating growth parameters for an aquatic species that incorporates growth covariates, and takes into consideration multiple tag-recapture data. Individual variability in asymptotic length, age-at-tagging, and measurement error are also considered in the model structure. Using distribution theory, the log-likelihood function is derived under a generalised framework for the von Bertalanffy and Gompertz growth models. Due to the generality of the derivation, covariate effects can be included for both models with seasonality and tagging effects investigated. Method robustness is established via comparison with the Fabens, improved Fabens, James and a non-linear mixed-effects growth models, with the maximum likelihood method performing the best. The method is illustrated further with an application to blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) for which a strong growth-retarding tagging effect that persisted for several months was detected. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The kinetics and reactivity of several polyatomic free radicals in reactions with NO2, O2, Cl2, and HCl

In this thesis, the kinetics of several alkyl, halogenated alkyl, and alkenyl free radical reactions with NO2, O2, Cl2, and HCl reactants were studied over a wide temperature range in time resolved conditions. Laser photolysis photoionisation mass spectrometer coupled to a flow reactor was the experimental method employed and this thesis present the first measurements performed with the experimental system constructed. During this thesis a great amount of work was devoted to the designing, building, testing, and improving the experimental apparatus. Carbon-centred free radicals were generated by the pulsed 193 or 248 nm photolysis of suitable precursors along the tubular reactor. The kinetics was studied under pseudo-first-order conditions using either He or N2 buffer gas. The temperature and pressure ranges employed were between 190 and 500 K, and 0.5 45 torr, respectively. The possible role of heterogeneous wall reactions was investigated employing reactor tubes with different sizes, i.e. to significantly vary the surface to volume ratio. In this thesis, significant new contributions to the kinetics of carbon-centred free radical reactions with nitrogen dioxide were obtained. Altogether eight substituted alkyl (CH2Cl, CHCl2, CCl3, CH2I, CH2Br, CHBr2, CHBrCl, and CHBrCH3) and two alkenyl (C2H3, C3H3) free radical reactions with NO2 were investigated as a function of temperature. The bimolecular rate coefficients of all these reactions were observed to possess negative temperature dependencies, while pressure dependencies were not noticed for any of these reactions. Halogen substitution was observed to moderately reduce the reactivity of substituted alkyl radicals in the reaction with NO2, while the resonance stabilisation of the alkenyl radical lowers its reactivity with respect to NO2 only slightly. Two reactions relevant to atmospheric chemistry, CH2Br + O2 and CH2I + O2, were also investigated. It was noticed that while CH2Br + O2 reaction shows pronounced pressure dependence, characteristic of peroxy radical formation, no such dependence was observed for the CH2I + O2 reaction. Observed primary products of the CH2I + O2 reaction were the I-atom and the IO radical. Kinetics of CH3 + HCl, CD3 + HCl, CH3 + DCl, and CD3 + DCl reactions were also studied. While all these reactions possess positive activation energies, in contrast to the other systems investigated in this thesis, the CH3 + HCl and CD3 + HCl reactions show a non-linear temperature dependency on the Arrhenius plot. The reactivity of substituted methyl radicals toward NO2 was observed to increase with decreasing electron affinity of the radical. The same trend was observed for the reactions of substituted methyl radicals with Cl2. It is proposed that interactions of frontier orbitals are responsible to these observations and Frontier Orbital Theory could be used to explain the observed reactivity trends of these highly exothermic reactions having reactant-like transition states.

Analysis of two degrees of freedom systems through weighted mean square linearization approach

In this paper a study of the free, forced and self-excited vibrations of non-linear, two degrees of freedom systems is reported. The responses are obtained by linearizing the nonlinear equations using the weighted mean square linearization approach. The scope of this approach, in terms of the type of non-linearities the method can tackle, is also discussed.

Parameters Affecting the Extraction of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons with Pressurised Hot Water

Pressurised hot water extraction (PHWE) exploits the unique temperature-dependent solvent properties of water minimising the use of harmful organic solvents. Water is environmentally friendly, cheap and easily available extraction medium. The effects of temperature, pressure and extraction time in PHWE have often been studied, but here the emphasis was on other parameters important for the extraction, most notably the dimensions of the extraction vessel and the stability and solubility of the analytes to be extracted. Non-linear data analysis and self-organising maps were employed in the data analysis to obtain correlations between the parameters studied, recoveries and relative errors. First, pressurised hot water extraction (PHWE) was combined on-line with liquid chromatography-gas chromatography (LC-GC), and the system was applied to the extraction and analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sediment. The method is of superior sensitivity compared with the traditional methods, and only a small 10 mg sample was required for analysis. The commercial extraction vessels were replaced by laboratory-made stainless steel vessels because of some problems that arose. The performance of the laboratory-made vessels was comparable to that of the commercial ones. In an investigation of the effect of thermal desorption in PHWE, it was found that at lower temperatures (200ºC and 250ºC) the effect of thermal desorption is smaller than the effect of the solvating property of hot water. At 300ºC, however, thermal desorption is the main mechanism. The effect of the geometry of the extraction vessel on recoveries was studied with five specially constructed extraction vessels. In addition to the extraction vessel geometry, the sediment packing style and the direction of water flow through the vessel were investigated. The geometry of the vessel was found to have only minor effect on the recoveries, and the same was true of the sediment packing style and the direction of water flow through the vessel. These are good results because these parameters do not have to be carefully optimised before the start of extractions. Liquid-liquid extraction (LLE) and solid-phase extraction (SPE) were compared as trapping techniques for PHWE. LLE was more robust than SPE and it provided better recoveries and repeatabilities than did SPE. Problems related to blocking of the Tenax trap and unrepeatable trapping of the analytes were encountered in SPE. Thus, although LLE is more labour intensive, it can be recommended over SPE. The stabilities of the PAHs in aqueous solutions were measured using a batch-type reaction vessel. Degradation was observed at 300ºC even with the shortest heating time. Ketones and quinones and other oxidation products were observed. Although the conditions of the stability studies differed considerably from the extraction conditions in PHWE, the results indicate that the risk of analyte degradation must be taken into account in PHWE. The aqueous solubilities of acenaphthene, anthracene and pyrene were measured, first below and then above the melting point of the analytes. Measurements below the melting point were made to check that the equipment was working, and the results were compared with those obtained earlier. Good agreement was found between the measured and literature values. A new saturation cell was constructed for the solubility measurements above the melting point of the analytes because the flow-through saturation cell could not be used above the melting point. An exponential relationship was found between the solubilities measured for pyrene and anthracene and temperature.

Single network adaptive critic design for power system stabilisers

The recently developed single network adaptive critic (SNAC) design has been used in this study to design a power system stabiliser (PSS) for enhancing the small-signal stability of power systems over a wide range of operating conditions. PSS design is formulated as a discrete non-linear quadratic regulator problem. SNAC is then used to solve the resulting discrete-time optimal control problem. SNAC uses only a single critic neural network instead of the action-critic dual network architecture of typical adaptive critic designs. SNAC eliminates the iterative training loops between the action and critic networks and greatly simplifies the training procedure. The performance of the proposed PSS has been tested on a single machine infinite bus test system for various system and loading conditions. The proposed stabiliser, which is relatively easier to synthesise, consistently outperformed stabilisers based on conventional lead-lag and linear quadratic regulator designs.

Radiation induced depinning of a charge density wave system

The frequency-dependent response of a pinned charge density wave is considered in terms of forced vibration of an oscillator held in an anharmonic well. It is shown that the effective pinning-frequency can be reduced by applying a d.c. field. If a strong a.c. field, superposed on a d.c. field is applied on such a system “jumps” can be observed in the frequency dependent response of the system. The conditions at which these “jumps” occur are investigated with reference to NbSe3. The possibility of observing such phenomena in other systems like superionic conductors, non-linear dielectrics like ferroelectrics is pointed out. The characteristics are expressed in terms of some “scaled variables” — in terms of which the characteristics show a universal behaviour

On a generalized dynamic model of bi-state social interaction processes

A non-linear model, construed as a generalized version of the models put forth earlier for the study of bi-state social interaction processes, is proposed in this study. The feasibility of deriving the dynamics of such processes is demonstrated by establishing equivalence between the non-linear model and a higher order linear model.

Algorithms for 13C metabolic flux analysis

The metabolism of an organism consists of a network of biochemical reactions that transform small molecules, or metabolites, into others in order to produce energy and building blocks for essential macromolecules. The goal of metabolic flux analysis is to uncover the rates, or the fluxes, of those biochemical reactions. In a steady state, the sum of the fluxes that produce an internal metabolite is equal to the sum of the fluxes that consume the same molecule. Thus the steady state imposes linear balance constraints to the fluxes. In general, the balance constraints imposed by the steady state are not sufficient to uncover all the fluxes of a metabolic network. The fluxes through cycles and alternative pathways between the same source and target metabolites remain unknown. More information about the fluxes can be obtained from isotopic labelling experiments, where a cell population is fed with labelled nutrients, such as glucose that contains 13C atoms. Labels are then transferred by biochemical reactions to other metabolites. The relative abundances of different labelling patterns in internal metabolites depend on the fluxes of pathways producing them. Thus, the relative abundances of different labelling patterns contain information about the fluxes that cannot be uncovered from the balance constraints derived from the steady state. The field of research that estimates the fluxes utilizing the measured constraints to the relative abundances of different labelling patterns induced by 13C labelled nutrients is called 13C metabolic flux analysis. There exist two approaches of 13C metabolic flux analysis. In the optimization approach, a non-linear optimization task, where candidate fluxes are iteratively generated until they fit to the measured abundances of different labelling patterns, is constructed. In the direct approach, linear balance constraints given by the steady state are augmented with linear constraints derived from the abundances of different labelling patterns of metabolites. Thus, mathematically involved non-linear optimization methods that can get stuck to the local optima can be avoided. On the other hand, the direct approach may require more measurement data than the optimization approach to obtain the same flux information. Furthermore, the optimization framework can easily be applied regardless of the labelling measurement technology and with all network topologies. In this thesis we present a formal computational framework for direct 13C metabolic flux analysis. The aim of our study is to construct as many linear constraints to the fluxes from the 13C labelling measurements using only computational methods that avoid non-linear techniques and are independent from the type of measurement data, the labelling of external nutrients and the topology of the metabolic network. The presented framework is the first representative of the direct approach for 13C metabolic flux analysis that is free from restricting assumptions made about these parameters.In our framework, measurement data is first propagated from the measured metabolites to other metabolites. The propagation is facilitated by the flow analysis of metabolite fragments in the network. Then new linear constraints to the fluxes are derived from the propagated data by applying the techniques of linear algebra.Based on the results of the fragment flow analysis, we also present an experiment planning method that selects sets of metabolites whose relative abundances of different labelling patterns are most useful for 13C metabolic flux analysis. Furthermore, we give computational tools to process raw 13C labelling data produced by tandem mass spectrometry to a form suitable for 13C metabolic flux analysis.