Methods matter: computational modelling in public health policy and planning

This work is aimed at understanding and unifying information on epidemiological modelling methods and how those methods relate to public policy addressing human health, specifically in the context of infectious disease prevention, pandemic planning, and health behaviour change. This thesis employs multiple qualitative and quantitative methods, and presents as a manuscript of several individual, data-driven projects that are combined in a narrative arc. The first chapter introduces the scope and complexity of this interdisciplinary undertaking, describing several topical intersections of importance. The second chapter begins the presentation of original data, and describes in detail two exercises in computational epidemiological modelling pertinent to pandemic influenza planning and policy, and progresses in the next chapter to present additional original data on how the confidence of the public in modelling methodology may have an effect on their planned health behaviour change as recommended in public health policy. The thesis narrative continues in the final data-driven chapter to describe how health policymakers use modelling methods and scientific evidence to inform and construct health policies for the prevention of infectious diseases, and concludes with a narrative chapter that evaluates the breadth of this data and recommends strategies for the optimal use of modelling methodologies when informing public health policy in applied public health scenarios.

Parental exposure to the herbicide diuron results in oxidative DNA damage to germinal cells of the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas

Chemical pollution by pesticides has been identified as a possible contributing factor to the massive mortality outbreaks observed in Crassostrea gigas for several years. A previous study demonstrated the vertical transmission of DNA damage by subjecting oyster genitors to the herbicide diuron at environmental concentrations during gametogenesis. This trans-generational effect occurs through damage to genitor-exposed gametes, as measured by the comet-assay. The presence of DNA damage in gametes could be linked to the formation of DNA damage in other germ cells. In order to explore this question, the levels and cell distribution of the oxidized base lesion 8-oxodGuo were studied in the gonads of exposed genitors. High-performance liquid chromatography coupled with UV and electrochemical detection analysis showed an increase in 8-oxodGuo levels in both male and female gonads after exposure to diuron. Immunohistochemistry analysis showed the presence of 8-oxodGuo at all stages of male germ cells, from early to mature stages. Conversely, the oxidized base was only present in early germ cell stages in female gonads. These results indicate that male and female genitors underwent oxidative stress following exposure to diuron, resulting in DNA oxidation in both early germ cells and gametes, such as spermatozoa, which could explain the transmission of diuron-induced DNA damage to offspring. Furthermore, immunostaining of early germ cells seems indicates that damages caused by exposure to diuron on germ line not only affect the current sexual cycle but also could affect future gametogenesis.

Comunicação de risco em saúde : a importância do eWOM

Os surtos de doenças infeciosas estão atualmente no topo das preocupações relacionadas com riscos de saúde, devido à grande capacidade de disseminação e difusão que as caracteriza e, não menos importante, por causa da eventual possibilidade de evolução dos surtos para o nível de pandemia. A nível global, os Governos e as organizações oficiais de saúde estão empenhados em criar planos para lidar com os riscos de saúde, de forma a mitigar e controlar os efeitos nefastos provocados pelas doenças infeciosas na população. O mundo mudou, devido às novas tecnologias, tornou-se globalmente digital. As pessoas, hoje, têm um novo estatuto, são atores sociais, unidos por laços sociais no seio das redes digitais, dentro das quais, têm acesso a uma vasta panóplia de informação - acerca de assuntos de saúde por exemplo, que flui livremente através da rede e diminui os limites entre o cidadão comum e os profissionais e os peritos acerca dos mais diversos temas. O utilizador atual de internet, é um "prosumer". A tecnologia permite-lhe pesquisar a informação que procura e, adicionalmente, compartilhar e comentar o resultado das suas pesquisas e da sua própria experiência pessoal. No contexto dos riscos de saúde, a comunicação é um elemento preponderante em qualquer estratégia de planeamento de risco. Por sua vez, a internet, os novos media digitais e as redes sociais online, são ferramentas postas à disposição dos consumidores, que lhes possibilitam a procura a partilha e o armazenamento de informação. Em virtude da importância que assume a comunicação nos cenários de crise, no âmbito deste trabalho, centraremos o foco da nossa atenção, nos fenómenos de comunicação, conhecidos por “passa-palavra” e “passa-palavra eletrónico” (WOM e WOM), revelando a sua influência na participação dos consumidores na dinâmica comportamental de partilha de eWOM, dentro do grupo restrito de cada indivíduo (eWOM dentro do grupo). Para produzir o nosso modelo concetual, usaram-se medidas adaptadas de outros construtos retirados da literatura, nomeadamente, “Credibilidade da fonte”; “Credibilidade de informação” e “eWOM Dentro do Grupo”.

Análise do efeito de polimorfismos não-sinônimos em genes de reparo de DNA da via BER na resposta inflamatória da meningite

In vitro and in animal models, APE1, OGG1, and PARP-1 have been proposed as being involved with inflammatory response. In this work, we have investigated if the SNPs APE1 Asn148Glu, OGG1 Ser326Cys, and PARP-1 Val762Ala are associated to meningitis and also developed a system to enable the functional analysis of polymorphic proteins. Patients with bacterial meningitis (BM), aseptic meningitis (AM) and controls (non-infected) genotypes were investigated by PIRA-PCR or PCR-RFLP. DNA damages were detected in genomic DNA by Fpg treatment. IgG and IgA were measured from plasma and the cytokines and chemokines were measured from cerebrospinal fluid samples using Bio-Plex assays. The levels of NF-κB and c-Jun were measured in CSF by dot blot assays. A significant (P<0.05) increase in the frequency of APE1 148Glu allele in BM and AM patients was observed. A significant increase in the genotypes Asn/Asn in control group and Asn/Glu in BM group was also found. For the SNP OGG1 Ser326Cys, the genotype Cys/Cys was more frequent (P<0.05) in BM group. The frequency of PARP-1 Val/Val genotype was higher in control group (P<0.05). The occurrence of combined SNPs increased significantly in BM patients, indicating that these SNPs may be associated to the disease. Increasing in sensitive sites to Fpg was observed in carriers of APE1 148Glu allele or OGG1 326Cys allele, suggesting that SNPs affect DNA repair activity. Alterations in IgG production were observed in the presence of SNPs APE1Asn148Glu, OGG1Ser326Cys or PARP-1Val762Ala. Reductions in the levels ofIL-6, IL-1Ra, MCP-1/CCL2and IL-8/CXCL8 were observed in the presence of APE1148Glu allele in BM patients, however no differences were observed in the levels of NF-κB and c-Jun considering genotypes and analyzed groups. Using APE1 as model, a system to enable the analysis of cellular effects and functional characterization of polymorphic proteins was developed using strategies of cloning APE1 cDNA in pIRES2-EGFP vector, cellular transfection of the construction obtained, siRNA for endogenous APE1 and cellular cultures genotyping. In conclusion, we obtained evidences of an effect of SNPs in DNA repair genes on the regulation of immune response. This is a pioneering work in the field that shows association of BER variant enzymes with an infectious disease in human patients, suggesting that the SNPs analyzed may affect immune response and damage by oxidative stress level during brain infection. Considering these data, new approaches of functional characterization must be developed to better analysis and interactions of polymorphic proteins in response to this context

Transient hyperglycemia in patients with tuberculosis in Tanzania: implications for diabetes screening algorithms.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) increases tuberculosis risk while tuberculosis, as an infectious disease, leads to hyperglycemia. We compared hyperglycemia screening strategies in controls and patients with tuberculosis in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. METHODS: Consecutive adults with tuberculosis and sex- and age-matched volunteers were included in a case-control study between July 2012 and June 2014. All underwent DM screening tests (fasting capillary glucose [FCG] level, 2-hour CG [2-hCG] level, and glycated hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c] level) at enrollment, and cases were tested again after receipt of tuberculosis treatment. Association of tuberculosis and its outcome with hyperglycemia was assessed using logistic regression analysis adjusted for sex, age, body mass index, human immunodeficiency virus infection status, and socioeconomic status. Patients with tuberculosis and newly diagnosed DM were not treated for hyperglycemia. RESULTS: At enrollment, DM prevalence was significantly higher among patients with tuberculosis (n = 539; FCG level > 7 mmol/L, 4.5% of patients, 2-hCG level > 11 mmol/L, 6.8%; and HbA1c level > 6.5%, 9.3%), compared with controls (n = 496; 1.2%, 3.1%, and 2.2%, respectively). The association between hyperglycemia and tuberculosis disappeared after tuberculosis treatment (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for the FCG level: 9.6 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 3.7-24.7] at enrollment vs 2.4 [95% CI, .7-8.7] at follow-up; aOR for the 2-hCG level: 6.6 [95% CI, 4.0-11.1] vs 1.6 [95% CI, .8-2.9]; and aOR for the HbA1c level, 4.2 [95% CI, 2.9-6.0] vs 1.4 [95% CI, .9-2.0]). Hyperglycemia, based on the FCG level, at enrollment was associated with tuberculosis treatment failure or death (aOR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.2-9.3). CONCLUSIONS: Transient hyperglycemia is frequent during tuberculosis, and DM needs confirmation after tuberculosis treatment. Performance of DM screening at tuberculosis diagnosis gives the opportunity to detect patients at risk of adverse outcome.

Reproductive decisions of couples living with HIV in Malawi: What can we learn for future policy and research studies?

Background The rapid scale-up of free antiretroviral therapy has lead to decline in adult mortality at the population level and reduction of vertical transmission. Consequently, some couples living with HIV are maintaining their reproductive decisions; marrying and having children. This paper analyses policies and guidelines on HIV, AIDS and sexual and reproductive health in Malawi for content on marriage and childbearing for couples living with HIV. Methods A qualitative study using interpretive policy analysis approach was conducted from July to December 2010 in two phases. First, data on access to HIV, AIDS and sexual and reproductive health services were collected using in-depth interviews with twenty couples purposively sampled in matrilineal Chiradzulu and patrilineal Chikhwawa communities. Secondly, data were collected from Malawi policies and guidelines on HIV, AIDS and sexual and reproductive health. The documents were reviewed for content on marriage and childbearing for couples living with HIV. Data were analysed using framework approach for applied policy analysis. Results Four categories emerged from each phase. From the study, we extracted health workers attitudes, weak linkage between HIV, AIDS and sexual and reproductive health services, contradictory messages between media and the hospitals and lack of information as factors directly related to guidelines and policies. Analysis of guidelines and policies showed nonprescriptiveness on issues of HIV, AIDS and reproduction: they do not reflect the social cultural experiences of couples living with HIV. In addition, there is; lack of clinical guidelines, external influence on adoption of the policies and guidelines and weak linkages between HIV and AIDS and sexual and reproductive health services. Conclusion This synthesis along with more detailed findings which are reported in other published articles, provide a strong basis for updating the policies and development of easy-to-follow guidelines in order to effectively provide services to couples living with HIV in Malawi.

Clínica e cirurgia de animais de companhia

Este relatório foi realizado no âmbito da conclusão do mestrado integrado em medicina veterinária da Universidade de Évora, encontrando-se dividido em duas partes. A primeira é referente à casuística acompanhada ao longo do estágio curricular, decorrido no Hospital Veterinário do Restelo (HVR), com a duração de quatro meses, desde 03 de Agosto de 2015 a 06 de Dezembro de 2016, sob orientação da Doutora Sandra Branco e coorientação do Dr. Diogo Magno, subdiretor clínico do HVR. A segunda parte é constituída por uma monografia subordinada ao tema “Erliquiose Monocítica Canina”, seguida de um caso clínico acompanhado pelo autor no âmbito do referido tema. A erliquiose monocítica canina (EMC) é uma doença infeciosa transmitida por um vetor, o ixodídeo Riphicephalus sanguineus, cujos controlos químicos e ambientais são essenciais para reduzir a prevalência da doença. É causada por uma bactéria intracelular, Ehrlichia canis, que afeta o sistema imunitário dos cães, manifestando diferentes fases de evolução e podendo apresentar formas aguda e crónica da doença. O tratamento de primeira escolha é o uso da antibioterapia com tetraciclinas, dentre as quais a doxiciclina, para além do tratamento de suporte, como a fluidoterapia. O prognóstico é variável, dependendo da precocidade e eficiência da terapêutica instituída; ABSTRACT: The present report, wrote to get the master degree in veterinary medicine area, on Universidade de Évora, is divided up into two distinct parts. On one hand it describes the clinical situations’ roll, assisted through the experimental trainee, that took place on Hospital Veterinário do Restelo (HVR), for a period of four months, specifically since 3 august 2015 until 6 december 2015, and this trainee was led by Doctor Sandra Branco, and also the HVR’s clinical subdirector Dr. Diogo Magno. On other hand the second parts reveals a monograph titled “ehrlichiosis monocytic canine” (EMC), specifying a particular clinical case followed by the author. The EMC an infectious disease transmitted by a tick - Riphicephalus sanguineus – whose chemical controls and even the environmental ones are crucial to reduce the disease’s prevalence. The disease has an intracellular bacteria origin - Ehrlichia canis – responsability for the dog’s immune system infection, and it reveals different evolution phases and present acute or in some cases chronic forms. The treatment’s first step is to use an antibiotic with tetracycline that include doxycycline, and as a fluid’s therapy addition is use to do the supportive treatment. The diagnosis is variable so it depends on precocity evaluation and even on the therapeutics efficiencies.

Trèlat's beads as oral manifestations in patients with HIV/TB

Tuberculosis (TB) is a contagious infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Koch's bacillus). Co-infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and TB has reached a significant importance as a public health problem and this association has been recognized as the most significant event that changed "the balance between man and Koch's bacillus" in the last century, and has a large contribution to the risk for disease spreading. Tuberculosis has two main standard categories of clinical manifestations: primary and secondary. Primary TB is responsible for the initial infection with lungs being the involved organ. Oral lesions are observed as a secondary TB clinical manifestation with most frequent sites being hard and soft palate, tongue, lips, gums, tonsils, and salivary glands. A case of classical TB lesions in the oral cavity is reported, and the importance of a correct diagnosis through careful history taking is emphasized. Treatment selection needs to be done assertively, with great determination and building a link between patient and treatment protocol, in order to promote patient's adherence.

Co-administration of plasmid-encoded granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor increases human immunodeficiency virus-1 DNA vaccine-induced polyfunctional CD4+ T-cell responses

T-cell based vaccines against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) generate specific responses that may limit both transmission and disease progression by controlling viral load. Broad, polyfunctional, and cytotoxic CD4+ T-cell responses have been associated with control of simian immunodeficiency virus/HIV-1 replication, supporting the inclusion of CD4+ T-cell epitopes in vaccine formulations. Plasmid-encoded granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (pGM-CSF) co-administration has been shown to induce potent CD4+ T-cell responses and to promote accelerated priming and increased migration of antigen-specific CD4+ T-cells. However, no study has shown whether co-immunisation with pGM-CSF enhances the number of vaccine-induced polyfunctional CD4+ T-cells. Our group has previously developed a DNA vaccine encoding conserved, multiple human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DR binding HIV-1 subtype B peptides, which elicited broad, polyfunctional and long-lived CD4+ T-cell responses. Here, we show that pGM-CSF co-immunisation improved both magnitude and quality of vaccine-induced T-cell responses, particularly by increasing proliferating CD4+ T-cells that produce simultaneously interferon-γ, tumour necrosis factor-α and interleukin-2. Thus, we believe that the use of pGM-CSF may be helpful for vaccine strategies focused on the activation of anti-HIV CD4+ T-cell immunity.

Avian flu: the creation of expectations in the interplay between science and the media

This paper examines the emerging cultural patterns and interpretative repertoires in reports of an impending pandemic of avian flu in the UK mass media and scientific journals at the beginning of 2005, paying particular attention to metaphors, pragmatic markers ('risk signals'), symbolic dates and scare statistics used by scientists and the media to create expectations and elicit actions. This study complements other work on the metaphorical framing of infectious disease, such as foot and mouth disease and SARS, tries to link it to developments in the sociology of expectations and applies insights from pragmatics both to the sociology of metaphor and the sociology of expectations.

A Bayesian approach to study the risk variables for tuberculosis occurrence in domestic and wild ungulates in South Central Spain

BACKGROUND Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious disease mainly caused by Mycobacterium bovis. Although eradication is a priority for the European authorities, bTB remains active or even increasing in many countries, causing significant economic losses. The integral consideration of epidemiological factors is crucial to more cost-effectively allocate control measures. The aim of this study was to identify the nature and extent of the association between TB distribution and a list of potential risk factors regarding cattle, wild ungulates and environmental aspects in Ciudad Real, a Spanish province with one of the highest TB herd prevalences. RESULTS We used a Bayesian mixed effects multivariable logistic regression model to predict TB occurrence in either domestic or wild mammals per municipality in 2007 by using information from the previous year. The municipal TB distribution and endemicity was clustered in the western part of the region and clearly overlapped with the explanatory variables identified in the final model: (1) incident cattle farms, (2) number of years of veterinary inspection of big game hunting events, (3) prevalence in wild boar, (4) number of sampled cattle, (5) persistent bTB-infected cattle farms, (6) prevalence in red deer, (7) proportion of beef farms, and (8) farms devoted to bullfighting cattle. CONCLUSIONS The combination of these eight variables in the final model highlights the importance of the persistence of the infection in the hosts, surveillance efforts and some cattle management choices in the circulation of M. bovis in the region. The spatial distribution of these variables, together with particular Mediterranean features that favour the wildlife-livestock interface may explain the M. bovis persistence in this region. Sanitary authorities should allocate efforts towards specific areas and epidemiological situations where the wildlife-livestock interface seems to critically hamper the definitive bTB eradication success.

Novel insights into the dynamics of green turtle fibropapillomatosis

Outbreaks of fibropapillomatosis (FP), a neoplastic infectious disease of marine turtles, have occurred worldwide since the 1980s. Its most likely aetiological agent is a virus, but disease expression depends on external factors, typically associated with altered environments. The scarcity of robust long-term data on disease prevalence has limited interpretations on the impacts of FP on turtle populations. Here we model the dynamics of FP at 2 green turtle foraging aggregations in Puerto Rico, through 18 yr of capture-mark-recapture data (1997−2014). We observed spatiotemporal variation in FP prevalence, potentially modulated via individual site-fidelity. FP ex pression was residency dependent, and FP-free individuals developed tumours after 1.8 ± 0.8 yr (mean ± SD) in the infected area. Recovery from the disease was likely, with complete tumour regression occurring in 2.7 ± 0.7 yr (mean ± SD). FP does not currently seem to be a major threat to marine turtle populations; however, disease prevalence is yet unknown in many areas. Systematic monitoring is highly advisable as human-induced stressors can lead to deviations in host− pathogen relationships and disease virulence. Finally, data collection should be standardized for a global assessment of FP dynamics and impacts.

Complications of pneumococcal bacteremia after 13-valent conjugate vaccine withdrawal

In the Region of Madrid, universal immunization with the 13-serotypes pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) started in May 2010. In July 2012, public funding ceased. Vaccination coverage decreased from >95% to 82% in 2013 and to 67% in 2014. Our aim was to investigate the impact of PCV13 withdrawal from Madrid Region's universal immunization program on the incidence of complicated pneumococcal bacteremia. We performed a multi-center retrospective cohort study, from 2009 to 2014. Participants were children aged <14 years with Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteremia. Complications were defined as any condition requiring intensive care or surgery. Sequelae were conditions lasting ≥90 days. A total of 168 patients were recruited. One-fourth of both immunized and non-immunized patients had complications. Global complications increased after PCV13 withdrawal. A total of 28% of PCV13 serotypes presented complications. Complications due to PCV13 serotypes did not increase after July 2012. No-PCV13 serotypes increased progressively from 2009 on, and 23% presented complications. A significant risk of complications was found for patients with meningitis, empyema, C-reactive protein >100 mg/L, and serotype 1. A multivariate analysis indicated that complications were associated with meningitis and hospital admission after July 2012. Sequelae were significantly associated with children <2 years of age, meningitis and no-PCV13 serotypes. The incidence of complications due to PCV13 serotypes did not increase two years after PCV13 withdrawal. Nevertheless, all-serotypes complications increased. The likely cause was that no-PCV13 serotypes (associated with meningitis) are on the rise.

Caractérisation d’un effecteur de phosphoinositides chez le parasite de la malaria "Plasmodium falciparum"

La malaria est une maladie infectieuse causant plus de 500 000 morts chaque année. La maladie est causée par un protozoaire de la famille Plasmodium. L’apparition de souches résistantes aux traitements actuels et l’absence de vaccin efficace rendent la découverte de nouvelles cibles thérapeutiques urgente. Le parasite possède un complexe apical, un groupement de vacuoles sécrétoires spécialisées contenant les protéines responsables de l’invasion du globule rouge. Nous nous intéressons aux mécanismes gouvernant le transport intracellulaire de ces protéines et à la biogenèse du complexe apical lors de la formation des nouveaux parasites. Plus particulièrement, nous nous intéressons au rôle des phosphoinositides dans le recrutement des protéines à la membrane de l’appareil de Golgi. Par analyse bio-informatique du génome de P. falciparum, nous avons identifié plusieurs protéines effectrices liant potentiellement les phosphoinositides. Les travaux présentés dans ce mémoire concernent Mal13P1.188, une protéine possédant un domaine Pleckstrin homology. Nous proposons que Mal13P1.188 ait un rôle dans la génération du complexe apical en recrutant les protéines le constituant à la membrane du Golgi par la liaison avec les phosphoinositides. Afin de vérifier nos hypothèses, nous avons généré une lignée de parasite dont le gène de Mal13P1.188 est fusionné avec une GFP et une hémagglutinine. À l’aide de cette lignée de parasite, nous avons pu identifier Mal13P1.188 à proximité de l’appareil de Golgi lorsque les parasites étaient sous la forme schizont du cycle érythrocytaire. D’autres expériences ont permis de confirmer que le domaine Pleckstrin homology de Mal13P1.188 était capable de reconnaître les différentes formes de phosphoinositides. Finalement, d’autres travaux devront être faits sur Mal13P1.188 afin de déterminer si elle est essentielle à la survie du parasite.

Descripción del análisis microbológico realizado mediante maldi-tof en muestras de la fundación santa fe de Bogotá.

Introducción: La rápida detección e identificación bacteriana es fundamental para el manejo de los pacientes críticos que presentan una patología infecciosa, esto requiere de métodos rápidos para el inicio de un correcto tratamiento. En Colombia se usan pruebas microbiología convencional. No hay estudios de espectrofotometría de masas en análisis de muestras de pacientes críticos en Colombia. Objetivo general: Describir la experiencia del análisis microbiológico mediante la tecnología MALDI-TOF MS en muestras tomadas en la Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá. Materiales y Métodos: Entre junio y julio de 2013, se analizaron 147 aislamientos bacterianos de muestras clínicas, las cuales fueron procesadas previamente por medio del sistema VITEK II. Los aislamientos correspondieron a 88 hemocultivos (60%), 28 urocultivos (19%), y otros cultivos 31 (21%). Resultados: Se obtuvieron 147 aislamientos con identificación adecuada a nivel de género y/o especie así: en el 88.4% (130 muestras) a nivel de género y especie, con una concordancia del 100% comparado con el sistema VITEK II. El porcentaje de identificación fue de 66% en el grupo de bacilos gram negativos no fermentadores, 96% en enterobacterias, 100% en gérmenes fastidiosos, 92% en cocos gram positivos, 100% bacilos gram negativos móviles y 100% en levaduras. No se encontró ninguna concordancia en bacilos gram positivos y gérmenes del genero Aggregatibacter. Conclusiones: El MALDI-TOF es una prueba rápida para la identificación microbiológica de género y especie que concuerda con los resultados obtenidos de manera convencional. Faltan estudios para hacer del MALDI-TOF MS la prueba oro en identificación de gérmenes.