Real - time prediction of rainfall induced instability of residual soil slopes associated with deep cracks

The early warning based on real-time prediction of rain-induced instability of natural residual slopes helps to minimise human casualties due to such slope failures. Slope instability prediction is complicated, as it is influenced by many factors, including soil properties, soil behaviour, slope geometry, and the location and size of deep cracks in the slope. These deep cracks can facilitate rainwater infiltration into the deep soil layers and reduce the unsaturated shear strength of residual soil. Subsequently, it can form a slip surface, triggering a landslide even in partially saturated soil slopes. Although past research has shown the effects of surface-cracks on soil stability, research examining the influence of deep-cracks on soil stability is very limited. This study aimed to develop methodologies for predicting the real-time rain-induced instability of natural residual soil slopes with deep cracks. The results can be used to warn against potential rain-induced slope failures. The literature review conducted on rain induced slope instability of unsaturated residual soil associated with soil crack, reveals that only limited studies have been done in the following areas related to this topic: - Methods for detecting deep cracks in residual soil slopes. - Practical application of unsaturated soil theory in slope stability analysis. - Mechanistic methods for real-time prediction of rain induced residual soil slope instability in critical slopes with deep cracks. Two natural residual soil slopes at Jombok Village, Ngantang City, Indonesia, which are located near a residential area, were investigated to obtain the parameters required for the stability analysis of the slope. A survey first identified all related field geometrical information including slope, roads, rivers, buildings, and boundaries of the slope. Second, the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) method was used on the slope to identify the location and geometrical characteristics of deep cracks. The two ERT array models employed in this research are: Dipole-dipole and Azimuthal. Next, bore-hole tests were conducted at different locations in the slope to identify soil layers and to collect undisturbed soil samples for laboratory measurement of the soil parameters required for the stability analysis. At the same bore hole locations, Standard Penetration Test (SPT) was undertaken. Undisturbed soil samples taken from the bore-holes were tested in a laboratory to determine the variation of the following soil properties with the depth: - Classification and physical properties such as grain size distribution, atterberg limits, water content, dry density and specific gravity. - Saturated and unsaturated shear strength properties using direct shear apparatus. - Soil water characteristic curves (SWCC) using filter paper method. - Saturated hydraulic conductivity. The following three methods were used to detect and simulate the location and orientation of cracks in the investigated slope: (1) The electrical resistivity distribution of sub-soil obtained from ERT. (2) The profile of classification and physical properties of the soil, based on laboratory testing of soil samples collected from bore-holes and visual observations of the cracks on the slope surface. (3) The results of stress distribution obtained from 2D dynamic analysis of the slope using QUAKE/W software, together with the laboratory measured soil parameters and earthquake records of the area. It was assumed that the deep crack in the slope under investigation was generated by earthquakes. A good agreement was obtained when comparing the location and the orientation of the cracks detected by Method-1 and Method-2. However, the simulated cracks in Method-3 were not in good agreement with the output of Method-1 and Method-2. This may have been due to the material properties used and the assumptions made, for the analysis. From Method-1 and Method-2, it can be concluded that the ERT method can be used to detect the location and orientation of a crack in a soil slope, when the ERT is conducted in very dry or very wet soil conditions. In this study, the cracks detected by the ERT were used for stability analysis of the slope. The stability of the slope was determined using the factor of safety (FOS) of a critical slip surface obtained by SLOPE/W using the limit equilibrium method. Pore-water pressure values for the stability analysis were obtained by coupling the transient seepage analysis of the slope using finite element based software, called SEEP/W. A parametric study conducted on the stability of an investigated slope revealed that the existence of deep cracks and their location in the soil slope are critical for its stability. The following two steps are proposed to predict the rain-induced instability of a residual soil slope with cracks. (a) Step-1: The transient stability analysis of the slope is conducted from the date of the investigation (initial conditions are based on the investigation) to the preferred date (current date), using measured rainfall data. Then, the stability analyses are continued for the next 12 months using the predicted annual rainfall that will be based on the previous five years rainfall data for the area. (b) Step-2: The stability of the slope is calculated in real-time using real-time measured rainfall. In this calculation, rainfall is predicted for the next hour or 24 hours and the stability of the slope is calculated one hour or 24 hours in advance using real time rainfall data. If Step-1 analysis shows critical stability for the forthcoming year, it is recommended that Step-2 be used for more accurate warning against the future failure of the slope. In this research, the results of the application of the Step-1 on an investigated slope (Slope-1) showed that its stability was not approaching a critical value for year 2012 (until 31st December 2012) and therefore, the application of Step-2 was not necessary for the year 2012. A case study (Slope-2) was used to verify the applicability of the complete proposed predictive method. A landslide event at Slope-2 occurred on 31st October 2010. The transient seepage and stability analyses of the slope using data obtained from field tests such as Bore-hole, SPT, ERT and Laboratory tests, were conducted on 12th June 2010 following the Step-1 and found that the slope in critical condition on that current date. It was then showing that the application of the Step-2 could have predicted this failure by giving sufficient warning time.

Assessing the short-term effects of heatwaves on mortality and morbidity in Brisbane, Australia : comparison of case-crossover and time series analyses

Background Heat-related impacts may have greater public health implications as climate change continues. It is important to appropriately characterize the relationship between heatwave and health outcomes. However, it is unclear whether a case-crossover design can be effectively used to assess the event- or episode-related health effects. This study examined the association between exposure to heatwaves and mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) from non-external causes in Brisbane, Australia, using both case-crossover and time series analyses approaches. Methods Poisson generalised additive model (GAM) and time-stratified case-crossover analyses were used to assess the short-term impact of heatwaves on mortality and EHAs. Heatwaves exhibited a significant impact on mortality and EHAs after adjusting for air pollution, day of the week, and season. Results For time-stratified case-crossover analysis, odds ratios of mortality and EHAs during heatwaves were 1.62 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36–1.94) and 1.22 (95% CI: 1.14–1.30) at lag 1, respectively. Time series GAM models gave similar results. Relative risks of mortality and EHAs ranged from 1.72 (95% CI: 1.40–2.11) to 1.81 (95% CI: 1.56–2.10) and from 1.14 (95% CI: 1.06–1.23) to 1.28 (95% CI: 1.21–1.36) at lag 1, respectively. The risk estimates gradually attenuated after the lag of one day for both case-crossover and time series analyses. Conclusions The risk estimates from both case-crossover and time series models were consistent and comparable. This finding may have implications for future research on the assessment of event- or episode-related (e.g., heatwave) health effects.

Effects of temperature on mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand : a time series study

Background The association between temperature and mortality has been examined mainly in North America and Europe. However, less evidence is available in developing countries, especially in Thailand. In this study, we examined the relationship between temperature and mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand, during 1999–2008. Method A time series model was used to examine the effects of temperature on cause-specific mortality (non-external, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and age-specific non-external mortality (<=64, 65–74, 75–84, and > =85 years), while controlling for relative humidity, air pollution, day of the week, season and long-term trend. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the delayed effects of temperature on mortality up to 21 days. Results We found non-linear effects of temperature on all mortality types and age groups. Both hot and cold temperatures resulted in immediate increase in all mortality types and age groups. Generally, the hot effects on all mortality types and age groups were short-term, while the cold effects lasted longer. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with cold temperature (19.35°C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 24.7°C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.44) for lags 0–21. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with high temperature (31.7°C, 99th percentile of temperature) relative to 28°C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.24) for lags 0–21. Conclusion This study indicates that exposure to both hot and cold temperatures were related to increased mortality. Both cold and hot effects occurred immediately but cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. This study provides useful data for policy makers to better prepare local responses to manage the impact of hot and cold temperatures on population health.

The recovery concept and crisis intervention : time for a revolution in the realm of acute psychiatric care

“Mental illness is a tough illness to survive, it is incurable but manageable. Living with the illness when at its full potency can disrupt your life at any moment.” Intensive care for patients experiencing acute psychiatric distress is an essential yet complex part of mental health services as a whole system. Psychiatric intensive care units remain a source of controversy; despite promising developments to health services incorporating recovery goals and processes outlined by people with a mental illness themselves. In past decades changes in the provision of mental health services have focused on the restoration of a meaningful and empowered life with choice and hope as a defining attribute of recovery. Yet, what does recovery mean and how are recovery principles accomplished in psychiatric intensive care arrangements for someone experiencing acute psychiatric distress?

Early time course of Akt phosphorylation after endurance and resistance exercise

Purpose The aim of this study was to determine the early time course of exercise-induced signaling after divergent contractile activity associated with resistance and endurance exercise. Methods Sixteen male subjects were randomly assigned to either a cycling (CYC; n = 8, 60 min, 70% V?O2peak) or resistance (REX; n = 8, 8×5 leg extension, 80% one-repetition maximum, 3-min recovery) exercise group. Serial muscle biopsies were obtained from vastus lateralis at rest before, immediately after, and after 15, 30, and 60 min of passive recovery to determine early signaling responses after exercise. Results There were comparable increases from rest in AktThr308/Ser473 and mTORSer2448 phosphorylation during the postexercise time course that peaked 30-60 min after both CYC and REX (P<0.05). There were also similar patterns in p70S6K Thr389 and 4E-BP1Thr37/46 phosphorylation, but a greater magnitude of effect was observed for REX and CYC, respectively (P<0.05). However, AMPKThr172 phosphorylation was only significantly elevated after CYC (P<0.05), and we observed divergent responses for glycogen synthaseSer641 and AS160 phosphorylation that were enhanced after CYC but not REX (P<0.05). Conclusions We show a similar time course for Akt-mTOR-S6K phosphorylation during the initial 60-min recovery period after divergent contractile stimuli. Conversely, enhanced phosphorylation status of proteins that promote glucose transport and glycogen synthesis only occurred after endurance exercise. Our results indicate that endurance and resistance exercise initiate translational signaling, but high-load, low-repetition contractile activity failed to promote phosphorylation of pathways regulating glucose metabolism.

Encouraging, assisting, and time to eat : comparison of mealtime assistance interventions in elderly medical inpatients

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of protein-energy malnutrition in older adults is reported to be as high as 60% and is associated with poor health outcomes. Inadequate feeding assistance and mealtime interruptions may contribute to malnutrition and poor nutritional intake during hospitalisation. Despite being widely implemented in practice in the United Kingdom and increasingly in Australia, there have been few studies examining the impact of strategies such as Protected Mealtimes and dedicated feeding assistant roles on nutritional outcomes of elderly inpatients. AIMS: The aim of this research was to implement and compare three system-level interventions designed to specifically address mealtime barriers and improve energy intakes of medical inpatients aged ≥65 years. This research also aimed to evaluate the sustainability of any changes to mealtime routines six months post-intervention and to gain an understanding of staff perceptions of the post-intervention mealtime experience. METHODS: Three mealtime assistance interventions were implemented in three medical wards at Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital: AIN-only: Additional assistant-in-nursing (AIN) with dedicated nutrition role. PM-only: Multidisciplinary approach to meals, including Protected Mealtimes. PM+AIN: Combined intervention: AIN + multidisciplinary approach to meals. An action research approach was used to carefully design and implement the three interventions in partnership with ward staff and managers. Significant time was spent in consultation with staff throughout the implementation period to facilitate ownership of the interventions and increase likelihood of successful implementation. A pre-post design was used to compare the implementation and nutritional outcomes of each intervention to a pre-intervention group. Using the same wards, eligible participants (medical inpatients aged ≥65 years) were recruited to the preintervention group between November 2007 and March 2008 and to the intervention groups between January and June 2009. The primary nutritional outcome was daily energy and protein intake, which was determined by visually estimating plate waste at each meal and mid-meal on Day 4 of admission. Energy and protein intakes were compared between the pre and post intervention groups. Data were collected on a range of covariates (demographics, nutritional status and known risk factors for poor food intake), which allowed for multivariate analysis of the impact of the interventions on nutritional intake. The provision of mealtime assistance to participants and activities of ward staff (including mealtime interruptions) were observed in the pre-intervention and intervention groups, with staff observations repeated six months post-intervention. Focus groups were conducted with nursing and allied health staff in June 2009 to explore their attitudes and behaviours in response to the three mealtime interventions. These focus group discussions were analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: A total of 254 participants were recruited to the study (pre-intervention: n=115, AIN-only: n=58, PM-only: n=39, PM+AIN: n=42). Participants had a mean age of 80 years (SD 8), and 40% (n=101) were malnourished on hospital admission, 50% (n=108) had anorexia and 38% (n=97) required some assistance at mealtimes. Occasions of mealtime assistance significantly increased in all interventions (p<0.01). However, no change was seen in mealtime interruptions. No significant difference was seen in mean total energy and protein intake between the preintervention and intervention groups. However, when total kilojoule intake was compared with estimated requirements at the individual level, participants in the intervention groups were more likely to achieve adequate energy intake (OR=3.4, p=0.01), with no difference noted between interventions (p=0.29). Despite small improvements in nutritional adequacy, the majority of participants in the intervention groups (76%, n=103) had inadequate energy intakes to meet their estimated energy requirements. Patients with cognitive impairment or feeding dependency appeared to gain substantial benefit from mealtime assistance interventions. The increase in occasions of mealtime assistance by nursing staff during the intervention period was maintained six-months post-intervention. Staff focus groups highlighted the importance of clearly designating and defining mealtime responsibilities in order to provide adequate mealtime care. While the purpose of the dedicated feeding assistant was to increase levels of mealtime assistance, staff indicated that responsibility for mealtime duties may have merely shifted from nursing staff to the assistant. Implementing the multidisciplinary interventions empowered nursing staff to "protect" the mealtime from external interruptions, but further work is required to empower nurses to prioritise mealtime activities within their own work schedules. Staff reported an increase in the profile of nutritional care on all wards, with additional non-nutritional benefits noted including improved mobility and functional independence, and better identification of swallowing difficulties. IMPLICATIONS: The PhD research provides clinicians with practical strategies to immediately introduce change to deliver better mealtime care in the hospital setting, and, as such, has initiated local and state-wide roll-out of mealtime assistance programs. Improved nutritional intakes of elderly inpatients was observed; however given the modest effect size and reducing lengths of hospital stays, better nutritional outcomes may be achieved by targeting the hospital-to-home transition period. Findings from this study suggest that mealtime assistance interventions for elderly inpatients with cognitive impairment and/or functional dependency show promise.

Prediction and proactivity in real-time interactive music systems

We advocate for the use of predictive techniques in interactive computer music systems. We suggest that the inclusion of prediction can assist in the design of proactive rather than reactive computational performance partners. We summarize the significant role prediction plays in human musical decisions, and the only modest use of prediction in interactive music systems to date. After describing how we are working toward employing predictive processes in our own metacreation software we reflect on future extensions to these approaches.

Contemporary comment : is it time for Australia to adopt Circles of Support and Accountability (COSA)?

Circles of Support and Accountability (COSA) - an innovative process for reintegrating child sex offenders into the community after a period of incarceration - have not yet been firmly established in any Australian jurisdiction. This is the case despite their widespread use in Canada, the United Kingdom. and parts of the United States of America, and despite a growing body of research evidence that demonstrates their efficacy in reducing recidivism among child sex offenders. This Contemporary Comment outlines the emergence of COSA and the existing evidence in support of COSA. It argues that COSA should be piloted in Australia.

Immunisation coverage in Australian Indigenous children : time to move the goal posts

Childhood immunisation coverage reported at 12 to <15 months and 2 years of age, may mask deficiencies in the timeliness of vaccines designed to protect against diseases in infancy. This study aimed to evaluate immunisation timeliness in Indigenous infants in the Northern Territory, Australia. Coverage was analysed at the date children turned 7, 13 and 18 months of age. By 7 months of age, 45.2% of children had completed the recommended schedule, increasing to 49.5% and 81.2% at 13 and 18 months of age, respectively. Immunisation performance benchmarks must focus on improving the timeliness in these children in the first year of life.

Beliefs underlying the intention to donate again among first-time blood donors who experience a mild adverse event

Using the belief basis of the theory of planned behavior (TPB), the current study explored the rate of mild reactions reported by donors in relation to their first donation and the intention and beliefs of those donors with regard to returning to donate again. A high proportion of first-time donors indicated that they had experienced a reaction to blood donation. Further, donors who reacted were less likely to intend to return to donate. Regression analyses suggested that targeting different beliefs for those donors who had and had not reacted would yield most benefit in bolstering donors’ intentions to remain donating. The findings provide insight into those messages that could be communicated via the mass media or in targeted communications to retain first-time donors who have experienced a mild vasovagal reaction.

Made by motion, Series one

“Made by Motion” is a collaboration between digital artist Paul Van Opdenbosch and performer and choreographer Elise May; a series of studies on captured motion data used to generating experimental visual forms that reverberate in space and time. The project investigates the invisible forces generated by and influencing the movement of a dancer. Along with how the forces can be captured and applied to generating visual outcomes that surpass simple data visualisation, projecting the intent of the performer’s movements. The source or ‘seed’ comes from using an Xsens MVN - Inertial Motion Capture system to capture spontaneous dance movements, with the visual generation conducted through a customised dynamics simulation. In this first series the visual investigation focused on manipulating the movement date at the instance of capture, capture been the recording of three-dimensional movement as ‘seen’ by the hardware and ‘understood’ through the calibration of software. By repositioning the capture hardware on the body we can effectively change how the same sequence of movements is ‘seen’ by the motion capture system thus generating a different visual result from effetely identical movement. The outcomes from the experiments clearly demonstrates the effectiveness of using motion capture hardware as a creative tool to manipulate the perception of the capture subject, in this case been a sequence of dance movements. The creative work exhibited is a cross-section of the experiments conducted in practice with the first animated work (Movement A - Control) using the motion capture hardware in its default ‘normal’ configuration. Following this is the lower body moved to the upper body (Lb-Ub), right arm moved onto the left arm (Ra-La), right leg moved onto the left leg (Rl-Ll) and finally the left leg moved onto a object that is then held in the left hand (Ll-Pf (Lh)).

Experimental arts practice incorporating motion capture

My practice-led research explores and maps workflows for generating experimental creative work involving inertia based motion capture technology. Motion capture has often been used as a way to bridge animation and dance resulting in abstracted visuals outcomes. In early works this process was largely done by rotoscoping, reference footage and mechanical forms of motion capture. With the evolution of technology, optical and inertial forms of motion capture are now more accessible and able to accurately capture a larger range of complex movements. Made by Motion is a collaboration between digital artist Paul Van Opdenbosch and performer and choreographer Elise May; a series of studies on captured motion data used to generate experimental visual forms that reverberate in space and time. The project investigates the invisible forces generated by and influencing the movement of a dancer. Along with how the forces can be captured and applied to generating visual outcomes that surpass simple data visualisation, projecting the intent of the performer’s movements. The source or ‘seed’ comes from using an Xsens MVN – Inertial Motion Capture system to capture spontaneous dance movements, with the visual generation conducted through a customised dynamics simulation. In my presentation I will be displaying and discussing a selected creative works from the project along with the process and considerations behind the work.

Curiosity to cupboard : self reported disengagement with energy use feedback over time

This paper discusses findings made during a study of energy use feedback in the home (eco-feedback), well after the novelty has worn off. Contributing towards four important knowledge gaps in the research, we explore eco-feedback over longer time scales, focusing on instances where the feedback was not of lasting benefit to users rather than when it was. Drawing from 23 semi-structured interviews with Australian householders, we found that an initially high level of engagement gave way over time to disinterest, neglect and in certain cases, technical malfunction. Additionally, preconceptions concerned with the “purpose” of the feedback were found to affect use. We propose expanding the scope of enquiry for eco-feedback in several ways, and describe how eco-feedback that better supports decision-making in the “maintenance phase”, i.e. once the initial novelty has worn off, may be key to longer term engagement.

Reduced biceps femoris myoelectrical activity influences eccentric knee flexor weakness after repeat sprint running

The aim of this study was to determine whether declines in knee flexor strength following overground repeat sprints were related to changes in hamstrings myoelectrical activity. Seventeen recreationally active males completed maximal isokinetic concentric and eccentric knee flexor strength assessments at 1800.s-1 before and after repeat sprint running. Myoelectrical activity of the biceps femoris (BF) and medial hamstrings (MH) was measured during all isokinetic contractions. Repeated measures mixed model (Fixed factors = time [pre- and post- repeat sprint] and leg [dominant and non-dominant], random factor = participants) design was fitted with the restricted maximal likelihood method. Repeat sprint running resulted in significant declines in eccentric, and concentric, knee flexor strength (eccentric = 25 ± 34 Nm, 15% p<0.001; concentric 11 Nm± 22 Nm, 10% p = 0.001). Eccentric BF myoelectrical activity was significantly reduced (10%; p= 0.033). Concentric BF and all MH myoelectrical activity were not altered. The declines in maximal eccentric torque were associated with the change in eccentric biceps femoris myoelectrical activity (p = 0.013). Following repeat sprint running there were preferential declines in the myoelectrical activity of the BF, which explained declines in eccentric knee flexor strength.

Time course-dependent changes in the transcriptome of human skeletal muscle during recovery from endurance exercise: From inflammation to adaptive remodeling

Re-programming of gene expression is fundamental for skeletal muscle adaptations in response to endurance exercise. This study investigated the time-course dependent changes in the muscular transcriptome following an endurance exercise trial consisting of 1 h of intense cycling immediately followed by 1 h of intense running. Skeletal muscle samples were taken at baseline, 3 h, 48 h, and 96 h post-exercise from eight healthy, endurance-trained, male individuals. RNA was extracted from muscle. Differential gene expression was evaluated using Illumina microarrays and validated with qPCR. Gene set enrichment analysis identified enriched molecular signatures chosen from the Molecular Signatures Database. Three h post-exercise, 102 gene sets were up-regulated [family wise error rate (FWER), P < 0.05]; including groups of genes related with leukocyte migration, immune and chaperone activation, and cyclic AMP responsive element binding protein (CREB) 1-signaling. Forty-eight h post-exercise, among 19 enriched gene sets (FWER, P < 0.05), two gene sets related to actin cytoskeleton remodeling were up-regulated. Ninety-six h post-exercise, 83 gene sets were enriched (FWER, P < 0.05), 80 of which were up-regulated; including gene groups related to chemokine signaling, cell stress management, and extracellular matrix remodeling. These data provide comprehensive insights into the molecular pathways involved in acute stress, recovery, and adaptive muscular responses to endurance exercise. The novel 96 h post-exercise transcriptome indicates substantial transcriptional activity, potentially associated with the prolonged presence of leukocytes in the muscles. This suggests that muscular recovery, from a transcriptional perspective, is incomplete 96 h after endurance exercise involving muscle damage.