Analyse rétrospective et création d'un modèle prédictif des réadmissions précoces dans le Service de Médecine Interne du CHUV

Le taux de réadmission à 30 jours de la sortie de l'hôpital est un indicateur de la qualité de prise en charge hospitalière pouvant refléter des soins suboptimaux ou une coordination insuffisante avec les intervenants ambulatoires. Il existe un algorithme informatisé validé dénommé SQLape® qui, basé sur des données administratives suisses, les codes diagnostiques et les codes d'interventions, permet d'identifier rétrospectivement les réadmissions potentiellement évitables (REAPE), avec une haute sensibilité (96%) et spécificité (96%). Sont considérées REAPE, les réadmissions précoces (< 30 jours), non planifiées à la sortie du séjour index et dues à un diagnostic déjà actif lors du précédent séjour ou dues à une complication d'un traitement. Le but de notre étude a été d'analyser rétrospectivement tous les séjours des patients admis dans le service de Médecine Interne du CHUV entre le 1 janvier 2009 et le 31 décembre 2011, afin de quantifier la proportion de REAPE, puis d'identifier des facteurs de risques afin d'en dériver un modèle prédictif. Nous avons analysé 11'074 séjours. L'âge moyen était de 72 +/- 16,8 ans et 50,3 % étaient des femmes. Nous avons comptabilisé 8,4 % décès durant les séjours et 14,2 % réadmissions à 30 jours de la sortie, dont la moitié (7,0 %) considérées potentiellement évitables selon SQLape®. Les facteurs de risques de REAPE que nous avons mis en évidence étaient les suivants : au moins une hospitalisation antérieure à l'admission index, un score de comorbidité de Charlson > 1, la présence d'un cancer actif, une hyponatrémie, une durée de séjour > 11 jours ou encore la prescription d'au moins 15 médicaments différents durant le séjour. Ces variables ont été utilisées pour en dériver un modèle prédictif de REAPE de bonne qualité (aire sous la courbe ROC de 0,70), plus performant pour notre population qu'un autre modèle prédictif développé et validé au Canada, dénommé score de LACE. Dans une perspective d'amélioration de la qualité des soins et d'une réduction des coûts, la capacité à identifier précocement les patients à risque élevé de REAPE permettrait d'implémenter rapidement des mesures préventives ciblées (par exemple un plan de sortie détaillé impliquant le patient, son entourage et son médecin traitant) en plus des mesures préventives générales (par exemple la réconciliation médicamenteuse)

Comprehensive Genomic Characterization of Long Non-coding RNAs across Human Cancers.

The discovery of long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) has dramatically altered our understanding of cancer. Here, we describe a comprehensive analysis of lncRNA alterations at transcriptional, genomic, and epigenetic levels in 5,037 human tumor specimens across 13 cancer types from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Our results suggest that the expression and dysregulation of lncRNAs are highly cancer type specific compared with protein-coding genes. Using the integrative data generated by this analysis, we present a clinically guided small interfering RNA screening strategy and a co-expression analysis approach to identify cancer driver lncRNAs and predict their functions. This provides a resource for investigating lncRNAs in cancer and lays the groundwork for the development of new diagnostics and treatments.

Modeling and manufacturability assessment of bistable quantum-dot cells

We have investigated the behavior of bistable cells made up of four quantum dots and occupied by two electrons, in the presence of realistic confinement potentials produced by depletion gates on top of a GaAs/AlGaAs heterostructure. Such a cell represents the basic building block for logic architectures based on the concept of quantum cellular automata (QCA) and of ground state computation, which have been proposed as an alternative to traditional transistor-based logic circuits. We have focused on the robustness of the operation of such cells with respect to asymmetries derived from fabrication tolerances. We have developed a two-dimensional model for the calculation of the electron density in a driven cell in response to the polarization state of a driver cell. Our method is based on the one-shot configuration-interaction technique, adapted from molecular chemistry. From the results of our simulations, we conclude that an implementation of QCA logic based on simple ¿hole arrays¿ is not feasible, because of the extreme sensitivity to fabrication tolerances. As an alternative, we propose cells defined by multiple gates, where geometrical asymmetries can be compensated for by adjusting the bias voltages. Even though not immediately applicable to the implementation of logic gates and not suitable for large scale integration, the proposed cell layout should allow an experimental demonstration of a chain of QCA cells.

Determinants of Broadband Access: Is Platform Competition always the Key Variable to Success?

Previous studies have identified the rivalry among technological platforms as one of the main driving forces of broadband services penetration. This paper draws on data from the Spanish market between 2005 and 2011 to estimate the main determinants of broadband prices. Controlling for broadband tariffs features and network variables, we examine the impact of the different modes of competition on prices. We find that inter-platform competition has no significant effects over prices, while intra-platform competition is a key driver of the prices charged in the broadband market. Our analysis suggests that the impact of different types of competition on prices is critically affected by the levels of development of the broadband market achieved by the considered country

Prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers based on random breath tests in a roadside survey

Sobriety checkpoints are not usually randomly located by traffic authorities. As such, information provided by non-random alcohol tests cannot be used to infer the characteristics of the general driving population. In this paper a case study is presented in which the prevalence of alcohol-impaired driving is estimated for the general population of drivers. A stratified probabilistic sample was designed to represent vehicles circulating in non-urban areas of Catalonia (Spain), a region characterized by its complex transportation network and dense traffic around the metropolis of Barcelona. Random breath alcohol concentration tests were performed during spring 2012 on 7,596 drivers. The estimated prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers was 1.29 PER CENT, which is roughly a third of the rate obtained in non-random tests. Higher rates were found on weekends (1.90 PER CENT on Saturdays, 4.29 PER CENT on Sundays) and especially at night. The rate is higher for men (1.45 PER CENT) than for women (0.64 PER CENT) and the percentage of positive outcomes shows an increasing pattern with age. In vehicles with two occupants, the proportion of alcohol-impaired drivers is estimated at 2.62 PER CENT, but when the driver was alone the rate drops to 0.84 PER CENT, which might reflect the socialization of drinking habits. The results are compared with outcomes in previous surveys, showing a decreasing trend in the prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers over time.

Kansainvälisten tilinpäätösstandardien mukainen osatuloutus rakennusliiketoiminnassa Venäjällä

Työn tavoitteena on selvittää, miten perustajaurakoitsijan raportointikauden tulos muodostuu yksittäisen rakennusprojektin tasolla ja miten eri tekijät vaikuttavat raportoitavaan tulokseen. Julkisesti noteeratun yhtiön on noudatettava kansainvälisiä tilinpäätösstandardeja. Tällöin perustajaurakointia harjoittavan yrityksen raportointikauden tulokseksi muodostuu tuloutettavan valmistusasteen mukainen osa projektin erilliskatteesta. Tällainen tuloutusmenetelmä perustuu projektin lopputulosennusteisiin kokonaistuotoista ja -kustannuksista. Tutkimuksessa arvioidaan kustannus- ja tuottoennusteiden arviointiepätarkkuuksien vaikutusta raportointikausien tuloksiin rakennusprojektin eri vaiheissa. Analyysityökaluksi kehitetään matemaattinen malli, jolla voidaan erottaa arviointiepätarkkuuksien vaikutus raportointikauden tuloksesta. Mallin avulla epätarkkuuksia arvioidaan herkkyysanalyysillä sekä esimerkeillä. Tutkimus osoittaa tuloutettavan valmistusasteen (IAS%) olevan keskeinen vaikuttaja tuloksen vaihtelulle, kun ennusteita tarkennetaan projektin edetessä. Kustannusennusteen nähdään olevan tuloksen kannalta kriittisempi ennuste, mikä korostaa projektiseurannan merkitystä. Lisäksi tutkimus osoittaa riskivarauksen erinomaisuuden raportointiteknisenä keinona vähentää tuloksen vaihtelua.

Recovery Risk and Labor Costs in Public-Private Partnerships : Contractual Choice in the US Water industry

We use an ordered logistic model to empirically examine the factors that explain varying degrees of private involvement in the U.S. water sector through public-private partnerships. Our estimates suggest that a variety of factors help explain greater private participation in this sector. We find that the risk to private participants regarding cost recovery is an important driver of private participation. The relative cost of labor is also a key factor in determining the degree of private involvement in the contract choice. When public wages are high relative to private wages, private participation is viewed as a source of cost savings. We thus find two main drivers of greater private involvement: one encouraging private participation by reducing risk, and another encouraging government to seek out private participation in lowering costs.

Evaluation of Teacher Education Programs by Students and Graduates

The purpose of this research was to do a repeated cross-sectional research on class teachers who study in the 4th year and also graduated at the Faculty of Education, University of Turku between the years of 2000 through 2004. Specifically, seven research questions were addressed to target the main purpose of the study: How do class teacher education masters’ degree senior students and graduates rate “importance; effectiveness; and quality” of training they have received at the Faculty of Education? Are there significant differences between overall ratings of importance; effectiveness and quality of training by year of graduation, sex, and age (for graduates) and sex and age (for senior students)? Is there significant relationship between respondents’ overall ratings of importance; effectiveness and their overall ratings of the quality of training and preparation they have received? Are there significant differences between graduates and senior students about importance, effectiveness, and quality of teacher education programs? And what do teachers’ [Graduates] believe about how increasing work experience has changed their opinions of their preservice training? Moreover the following concepts related to the instructional activities were studied: critical thinking skills, communication skills, attention to ethics, curriculum and instruction (planning), role of teacher and teaching knowledge, assessment skills, attention to continuous professional development, subject matters knowledge, knowledge of learning environment, and using educational technology. Researcher also tried to find influence of some moderator variables e.g. year of graduation, sex, and age on the dependent and independent variables. This study consisted of two questionnaires (a structured likert-scale and an open ended questionnaire). The population in study 1 was all senior students and 2000-2004 class teacher education masters’ degree from the departments of Teacher Education Faculty of Education at University of Turku. Of the 1020 students and graduates the researcher was able to find current addresses of 675 of the subjects and of the 675 graduates contacted, 439 or 66.2 percent responded to the survey. The population in study 2 was all class teachers who graduated from Turku University and now work in the few basic schools (59 Schools) in South- West Finland. 257 teachers answered to the open ended web-based questions. SPSS was used to produce standard deviations; Analysis of Variance; Pearson Product Moment Correlation (r); T-test; ANOVA, Bonferroni post-hoc test; and Polynomial Contrast tests meant to analyze linear trend. An alpha level of .05 was used to determine statistical significance. The results of the study showed that: A majority of the respondents (graduates and students) rated the overall importance, effectiveness and quality of the teacher education programs as important, effective and good. Generally speaking there were only a few significant differences between the cohorts and groups related to the background variables (gender, age). The different cohorts were rating the quality of the programs very similarly but some differences between the cohorts were found in the importance and effectiveness ratings. Graduates of 2001 and 2002 rated the importance of the program significantly higher than 2000 graduates. The effectiveness of the programs was rated significantly higher by 2001 and 2003 graduates than other groups. In spite of these individual differences between cohorts there were no linear trends among the year cohorts in any measure. In respondents’ ratings of the effectiveness of teacher education programs there was significant difference between males and females; females rated it higher than males. There were no significant differences between males’ and females’ ratings of the importance and quality of programs. In the ratings there was only one difference between age groups. Older graduates (35 years or older) rated the importance of the teacher training significantly higher that 25-35 years old graduates. In graduates’ ratings there were positive but relatively low correlations between all variables related to importance, effectiveness and quality of Teacher Education Programs. Generally speaking students’ ratings about importance, effectiveness and quality of teacher education program were very positive. There was only one significant difference related to the background variables. Females rated higher the effectiveness of the program. The comparison of students’ and graduates’ perception about importance, effectiveness, and quality of teacher education programs showed that there were no significant differences between graduates and students in the overall ratings. However there were differences in some individual variables. Students rated higher in importance of “Continuous Professional Development”, effectiveness of “Critical Thinking Skills” and “Using Educational Technology” and quality of “Advice received from the advisor”. Graduates rated higher in importance of “Knowledge of Learning Environment” and effectiveness of “Continuous Professional Development”. According to the qualitative data of study 2 some graduates expressed that their perceptions have not changed about the importance, effectiveness, and quality of training that they received during their study time. They pointed out that teacher education programs have provided them the basic theoretical/formal knowledge and some training of practical routines. However, a majority of the teachers seems to have somewhat critical opinions about the teacher education. These teachers were not satisfied with teacher education programs because they argued that the programs failed to meet their practical demands in different everyday situations of the classroom e.g. in coping with students’ learning difficulties, multiprofessional communication with parents and other professional groups (psychologists and social workers), and classroom management problems. Participants also emphasized more practice oriented knowledge of subject matter, evaluation methods and teachers’ rights and responsibilities. Therefore, they (54.1% of participants) suggested that teacher education departments should provide more practice-based courses and programs as well as closer collaboration between regular schools and teacher education departments in order to fill gap between theory and practice.

Means and challenges in international operations for a Finnish mobile application provider

Master’s Thesis concentrates to means and challenges in international operations for a Finnish mobile application provider Small Planet Oy during its various company stages from founding till maturing and during macro economical phases between year 1998 and 2008. Small Planet has just celebrated its 10 year anniversary and is therefore quite an extraordinary company which has survived all the highs and lows during past ten years and which has operated in the market as long as the whole mobile application industry has existed. Master’s Thesis describes possibilities for a company’s internationalization with different entry modes like exporting, licensing, investment entry and co-operative operations which are suitable for a mobile application provider. Unsuitable entry modes like franchising or contract manufacturing are not explained. The goal has been to analyze Small Planet’s international operations and to make conclusions from the practical experiences. Analysis and conclusions shall help Small Planet in its international operations in the future and should give insight to other mobile application companies and their managers who are in the situation of planning their own international operations. Results show that the best ways for Small Planet to internationalize its operations has been the co-operation with a big domestic client and the co-operation with Finnish operator infrastructure providers which have complementary products with Small Planet. Through these co-operations Small Planet has got lot of new international clients. Same time financial risks and investment need for international operations have been low. Co-operative international sales can be the most efficient international entry mode for a mobile application provider.

Labor Mobility of the Chinese Graduates from British and Spanish Universities: What Happens to the "Talent Migration"?

The scholarship on migration in Europe heavily focuses on the integration of economically vulnerable migrants. In the age of commercialization of education, however, the European Union attracts a rising number of highly skilled non-EU migrants that take up studies across the continent. Despite economic downturn, the EU universities experience a rapid growth in the number of Chinese students, many of whom settle in Europe upon graduation. Surprisingly, although the number of Chinese students in the EU increases, scholars largely ignore the labor paths that these highly skilled migrants take upon graduating from European universities. This study aims to fill this gap by exploring the variation in the Chinese graduates’ labor incorporation patterns and in their spatial mobility. In this project, I also examine macro-level hypotheses predicting that the EU and host states’ labor market institutions, changes in the EU policies on the highly skilled and the outburst of economic crisis matter for the Chinese highly skilled social and spatial mobility. Seizing on surveys, interviews and on the bodies of literature on stratification and social mobility, economic incorporation, social capital and human capital, I look at the Chinese students that graduated from universities in Great Britain and Spain. These states differ in the university tuition fees, migration policies towards the highly skilled workers and in the period of the Chinese students’ influx, thus providing an economically and socially diverse sample. My research will contribute to the literature on the relations between migrants’ social mobility, class and status background and spatial mobility, at the same time adding a transnational level perspective to the study of highly skilled Asian migration.

Innovation and Regulation in ICT. Keys for Development

The expansion of broadband speed and coverage over IP technology, which extend over transport and terminal access networks, has increased the demand for applications and content which by being provided over it, uniformly give rise to convergence. These shifts in technologies and enterprise business models are giving rise to the necessity for changing the perspective and scope of the Universal Service and of the regulation frameworks, with this last one based in the same principles as always but varying its application. Several aspects require special and renewed attention, such as the definition of relevant markets and dominant operators, the role of packages, interconnection of IP networks, network neutrality, the use of the spectrum with a vision of value for the citizenship, the application of the competition framework, new forms of licensing, treatment of the risk in the networks, changes in the regulatory authorities, amongst others. These matters are treated from the perspective of the actual trends in the world and its conceptual justification.

Factors affecting hospital admission and recovery stay duration of in-patient motor victims in Spain

Hospital expenses are a major cost driver of healthcare systems in Europe, with motor injuries being the leading mechanism of hospitalizations. This paper investigates the injury characteristics which explain the hospitalization of victims of traffic accidents that took place in Spain. Using a motor insurance database with 16.081 observations a generalized Tobit regression model is applied to analyse the factors that influence both the likelihood of being admitted to hospital after a motor collision and the length of hospital stay in the event of admission. The consistency of Tobit estimates relies on the normality of perturbation terms. Here a semi-parametric regression model was fitted to test the consistency of estimates, concluding that a normal distribution of errors cannot be rejected. Among other results, it was found that older men with fractures and injuries located in the head and lower torso are more likely to be hospitalized after the collision, and that they also have a longer expected length of hospital recovery stay.

How institutions shaped the last major evolutionary transition to large-scale human societies.

What drove the transition from small-scale human societies centred on kinship and personal exchange, to large-scale societies comprising cooperation and division of labour among untold numbers of unrelated individuals? We propose that the unique human capacity to negotiate institutional rules that coordinate social actions was a key driver of this transition. By creating institutions, humans have been able to move from the default 'Hobbesian' rules of the 'game of life', determined by physical/environmental constraints, into self-created rules of social organization where cooperation can be individually advantageous even in large groups of unrelated individuals. Examples include rules of food sharing in hunter-gatherers, rules for the usage of irrigation systems in agriculturalists, property rights and systems for sharing reputation between mediaeval traders. Successful institutions create rules of interaction that are self-enforcing, providing direct benefits both to individuals that follow them, and to individuals that sanction rule breakers. Forming institutions requires shared intentionality, language and other cognitive abilities largely absent in other primates. We explain how cooperative breeding likely selected for these abilities early in the Homo lineage. This allowed anatomically modern humans to create institutions that transformed the self-reliance of our primate ancestors into the division of labour of large-scale human social organization.

The new final Clinical Skills examination in human medicine in Switzerland: Essential steps of exam development, implementation and evaluation, and central insights from the perspective of the national Working Group.

OBJECTIVE: Since 2011, the new national final examination in human medicine has been implemented in Switzerland, with a structured clinical-practical part in the OSCE format. From the perspective of the national Working Group, the current article describes the essential steps in the development, implementation and evaluation of the Federal Licensing Examination Clinical Skills (FLE CS) as well as the applied quality assurance measures. Finally, central insights gained from the last years are presented. METHODS: Based on the principles of action research, the FLE CS is in a constant state of further development. On the foundation of systematically documented experiences from previous years, in the Working Group, unresolved questions are discussed and resulting solution approaches are substantiated (planning), implemented in the examination (implementation) and subsequently evaluated (reflection). The presented results are the product of this iterative procedure. RESULTS: The FLE CS is created by experts from all faculties and subject areas in a multistage process. The examination is administered in German and French on a decentralised basis and consists of twelve interdisciplinary stations per candidate. As important quality assurance measures, the national Review Board (content validation) and the meetings of the standardised patient trainers (standardisation) have proven worthwhile. The statistical analyses show good measurement reliability and support the construct validity of the examination. Among the central insights of the past years, it has been established that the consistent implementation of the principles of action research contributes to the successful further development of the examination. CONCLUSION: The centrally coordinated, collaborative-iterative process, incorporating experts from all faculties, makes a fundamental contribution to the quality of the FLE CS. The processes and insights presented here can be useful for others planning a similar undertaking.

The composition of airborne and grain-dust fungal communities is shaped at regional scale by plant genotypes and farming practices

Chronic exposure to airborne fungi has been associated with different respiratory symptoms and pathologies in occupational populations, such as grain workers. However, the homogeneity in the fungal species composition of these bioaerosols on a large geographical scale and the different drivers that shape these fungal communities remain unclear. In this study, the diversity of fungi in grain dust and in the aerosols released during harvesting was determined across 96 sites at a geographical scale of 560 km(2) along an elevation gradient of 500 m by tag-encoded 454-pyrosequencing of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences. Associations between the structure of fungal communities in the grain dust and different abiotic (farming system, soil characteristics, geographic and climatic parameters) and biotic (wheat cultivar, previous crop culture) factors were explored. These analyses revealed a strong relationship between the airborne and grain dust fungal communities and showed the presence of allergenic and mycotoxigenic species in most samples, which highlights the potential contribution of these fungal species to work-related respiratory symptoms of grain workers. The farming system was the major driver of the alpha and beta phylogenetic diversity of fungal communities. In addition, elevation and soil CaCO3 concentrations shaped the alpha diversity whereas wheat cultivar, cropping history and the number of freezing days per year shaped the taxonomic beta diversity of these communities.