Mapping financial stability

The ongoing global financial crisis has demonstrated the importance of a systemwide, or macroprudential, approach to safeguarding financial stability. An essential part of macroprudential oversight concerns the tasks of early identification and assessment of risks and vulnerabilities that eventually may lead to a systemic financial crisis. Thriving tools are crucial as they allow early policy actions to decrease or prevent further build-up of risks or to otherwise enhance the shock absorption capacity of the financial system. In the literature, three types of systemic risk can be identified: i ) build-up of widespread imbalances, ii ) exogenous aggregate shocks, and iii ) contagion. Accordingly, the systemic risks are matched by three categories of analytical methods for decision support: i ) early-warning, ii ) macro stress-testing, and iii ) contagion models. Stimulated by the prolonged global financial crisis, today's toolbox of analytical methods includes a wide range of innovative solutions to the two tasks of risk identification and risk assessment. Yet, the literature lacks a focus on the task of risk communication. This thesis discusses macroprudential oversight from the viewpoint of all three tasks: Within analytical tools for risk identification and risk assessment, the focus concerns a tight integration of means for risk communication. Data and dimension reduction methods, and their combinations, hold promise for representing multivariate data structures in easily understandable formats. The overall task of this thesis is to represent high-dimensional data concerning financial entities on lowdimensional displays. The low-dimensional representations have two subtasks: i ) to function as a display for individual data concerning entities and their time series, and ii ) to use the display as a basis to which additional information can be linked. The final nuance of the task is, however, set by the needs of the domain, data and methods. The following ve questions comprise subsequent steps addressed in the process of this thesis: 1. What are the needs for macroprudential oversight? 2. What form do macroprudential data take? 3. Which data and dimension reduction methods hold most promise for the task? 4. How should the methods be extended and enhanced for the task? 5. How should the methods and their extensions be applied to the task? Based upon the Self-Organizing Map (SOM), this thesis not only creates the Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM), but also lays out a general framework for mapping the state of financial stability. This thesis also introduces three extensions to the standard SOM for enhancing the visualization and extraction of information: i ) fuzzifications, ii ) transition probabilities, and iii ) network analysis. Thus, the SOFSM functions as a display for risk identification, on top of which risk assessments can be illustrated. In addition, this thesis puts forward the Self-Organizing Time Map (SOTM) to provide means for visual dynamic clustering, which in the context of macroprudential oversight concerns the identification of cross-sectional changes in risks and vulnerabilities over time. Rather than automated analysis, the aim of visual means for identifying and assessing risks is to support disciplined and structured judgmental analysis based upon policymakers' experience and domain intelligence, as well as external risk communication.

Fowl adenovirus Group I as a causal agent of inclusion body hepatitis/hydropericardium syndrome (IBH/HPS) outbreak in brazilian broiler flocks

Commercial broiler flocks from a farm located in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, presented diarrhea, depression, increased mortality and poor weight gain. Upon post-mortem examination, classical signs of Inclusion Body Hepatitis/Hydropericardium Syndrome (IBH/HPS) were observed, including enlarged pale yellow-colored livers and straw-colored liquid in the pericardial sac. In addition, gross lesions were also observed in the kidneys, pancreas, thymus, intestines and gallbladder. Samples of these organs were analyzed by PCR for the detection of the hexon gene of the Fowl Adenovirus (FAdVs) Group I. The results were positive for both flocks (A and B) assayed by PCR. The macroscopic lesions associated with the detection of FAdV Group I by PCR in several of these affected organs allowed for the identification of IBH/HPS. In fact, this is the first report in Brazil of IBH/HPS in broilers, which identifies FAdVs group I as a causal agent of the disease. These findings may contribute to the worldwide epidemiology of the adenovirus-mediated hepatitis/hydropericardium syndrome.

Identification of research trends in the field of separation processes. Application of epidemiological model, citation analysis, text mining, and technical analysis of the financial markets

Choice of industrial development options and the relevant allocation of the research funds become more and more difficult because of the increasing R&D costs and pressure for shorter development period. Forecast of the research progress is based on the analysis of the publications activity in the field of interest as well as on the dynamics of its change. Moreover, allocation of funds is hindered by exponential growth in the number of publications and patents. Thematic clusters become more and more difficult to identify, and their evolution hard to follow. The existing approaches of research field structuring and identification of its development are very limited. They do not identify the thematic clusters with adequate precision while the identified trends are often ambiguous. Therefore, there is a clear need to develop methods and tools, which are able to identify developing fields of research. The main objective of this Thesis is to develop tools and methods helping in the identification of the promising research topics in the field of separation processes. Two structuring methods as well as three approaches for identification of the development trends have been proposed. The proposed methods have been applied to the analysis of the research on distillation and filtration. The results show that the developed methods are universal and could be used to study of the various fields of research. The identified thematic clusters and the forecasted trends of their development have been confirmed in almost all tested cases. It proves the universality of the proposed methods. The results allow for identification of the fast-growing scientific fields as well as the topics characterized by stagnant or diminishing research activity.

Analysis of corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance and financial performance of selected mining companies

The global concern about sustainability has been growing and the mining industry is questioned about its environmental and social performance. Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is an important issue for the extractive industries. The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between CSR performance and financial performance of selected mining companies. The study was conducted by identifying and comparing a selection of available CSR performance indicators with financial performance indicators. Based on the result of the study, the relationship between CSR performance and financial performance is unclear for the selected group of companies. The result is mixed and no industry specific realistic way to measure CSR performance uniformly is available. The result as a whole is contradictory and varies at company level as well as based on the selected indicators. The result of this study confirms that the relationship between CSR performance and financial performance is complicated and difficult to determine. As an outcome, evaluation of benefits of CSR in the mining sector could better be analyzed based on different attributes.

The accumulation of financial and social capital as a means to achieve a sustained competitive advantage for consumer co-operatives

By so far, scholars have discussed how the characteristics of consumer co-operatives (cooperative principles, values and the dual role of members as the users and owners) can potentially give them a competitive advantage over investor-owned firms (IOFs). In addition, concern for the community (as partly derived from locality and regionality) has been seen as a potential source of success for consumer co-operatives. On the other hand, the geographicbound purpose of consumer co-operation causes that consumer co-operative can be regarded as a challenging company form to manage. This is because, according to the purpose of consumer co-operation, co-operatives are obligated to 1) provide the owners with services and goods that are needed and do so at more affordable prices than their competitors do and/or 2) to operate in areas in which competitors do not want to operate (for example, because of the low profitability in certain area of business or region). Thus, consumer co-operatives have to operate very efficiently in order to execute this geographic-bound corporate purpose (e.g. they cannot withdraw from the competition during the declining stages of business). However, this efficiency cannot be achieved by any means; as the acceptance from the important regional stakeholders is the basic operational precondition and lifeline in the long run. Thereby, the central question for the survival and success of consumer co-operatives is; how should the consumer co-operatives execute its corporate purpose so it can be the best alternative to its members in the long run? This question has remained unanswered and lack empirical evidence in the previous studies on the strategic management of consumer cooperation. In more detail, scholars have not yet empirically investigated the question: How can consumer co-operatives use financial and social capital to achieve a sustained competitive advantage? It is this research gap that this doctoral dissertation aims to fulfil. This doctoral dissertation aims to answer the above questions by combining and utilizing interview data from S Group co-operatives and the central organizations in S Group´s network (overall, 33 interviews were gathered), archival material and 56 published media articles/reports. The study is based on a qualitative case study approach that is aimed at theory development, not theory verification (as the theory is considered as nascent in this field of study). Firstly, the findings of this study indicate that consumer co-operatives accumulate financial capital; 1) by making profit (to invest and grow) and 2) by utilizing a network-based organizational structure (local supply chain economies). As a result of financial capital accumulation, consumer co-operatives are able to achieve efficiency gains but also remain local. In addition, a strong financial capital base increases consumer co-operatives´ independence, competitiveness and their ability to participate in regional development (which is in accordance with their geographically bound corporate purpose). Secondly, consumer cooperatives accumulate social capital through informal networking (with important regional stakeholders), corporate social responsibility (CSR) behaviour and CSR reporting, pursuing common good, and interacting and identity sharing. As a result of social capital accumulation, consumer co-operatives are able to obtain the resources for managing; 1) institutional dependencies and 2) customer relations. By accumulating both social and financial capital through the above presented actions, consumer co-operatives are able to achieve sustained competitive advantage. Finally, this thesis provides useful ideas and new knowledge for cooperative managers concerning why and how consumer co-operatives should accumulate financial and social capital (to achieve sustained competitive advantage), while aligning with their corporate purpose.

Railways, Airports and Sea Container Operators as Publicly Listed Companies – Financial Performance and Shareholder Value Creation Perspective

Logistics infrastructure and transportation services have been the liability of countries and governments for decades, or these have been under strict regulation policies. One of the first branches opened for competition in EU as well as in other continents, has been air transports (operators, like passenger and freight) and road transports. These have resulted on lower costs, better connectivity and in most of the cases higher service quality. However, quite large amount of other logistics related activities are still directly (or indirectly) under governmental influence, e.g. railway infrastructure, road infrastructure, railway operations, airports, and sea ports. Due to the globalization, governmental influence is not that necessary in this sector, since transportation needs have increased with much more significant phase as compared to economic growth. Also freight transportation needs do not correlate with passenger side, due to the reason that only small number of areas in the world have specialized in the production of particular goods. Therefore, in number of cases public-private partnership, or even privately owned companies operating in these sub-branches have been identified as beneficial for countries, customers and further economic growth. The objective of this research work is to shed more light on these kinds of experiments, especially in the relatively unknown sub-branches of logistics like railways, airports and sea container transports. In this research work we have selected companies having public listed status in some stock exchange, and have needed amount of financial scale to be considered as serious company rather than start-up phase venture. Our research results show that railways and airports usually need high fixed investments, but have showed in the last five years generally good financial performance, both in terms of profitability and cash flow. In contrary to common belief of prosperity in globally growing container transports, sea vessel operators of containers have not shown that impressive financial performance. Generally margins in this business are thin, and profitability has been sacrificed in front of high growth – this also concerns cash flow performance, which has been lower too. However, as we examine these three logistics sub-branches through shareholder value development angle during time period of 2002-2007, we were surprised to find out that all of these three have outperformed general stock market indexes in this period. More surprising is the result that financially a bit less performing sea container transportation sector shows highest shareholder value gain in the examination period. Thus, it should be remembered that provided analysis shows only limited picture, since e.g. dividends were not taken into consideration in this research work. Therefore, e.g. US railway operators have disadvantage to other in the analysis, since they have been able to provide dividends for shareholders in long period of time. Based on this research work we argue that investment on transportation/logistics sector seems to be safe alternative, which yields with relatively low risk high gain. Although global economy would face smaller growth period, this sector seems to provide opportunities in more demanding situation as well.

The time series convergence of dispersion in financial analysts' forecasts

Finansanalytiker har en stor betydelse för finansmarknaderna, speciellt igenom att förmedla information genom resultatprognoser. Typiskt är att analytiker i viss grad är oeniga i sina resultatprognoser, och det är just denna oenighet analytiker emellan som denna avhandling studerar. Då ett företag rapporterar förluster tenderar oenigheten gällande ett företags framtid att öka. På ett intuitivt plan är det lätt att tolka detta som ökad osäkerhet. Det är även detta man finner då man studerar analytikerrapporter - analytiker ser ut att bli mer osäkra då företag börjar gå med förlust, och det är precis då som även oenigheten mellan analytikerna ökar. De matematisk-teoretiska modeller som beskriver analytikers beslutsprocesser har däremot en motsatt konsekvens - en ökad oenighet analytiker emellan kan endast uppkomma ifall analytikerna blir säkrare på ett individuellt plan, där den drivande kraften är asymmetrisk information. Denna avhandling löser motsägelsen mellan ökad säkerhet/osäkerhet som drivkraft bakom spridningen i analytikerprognoser. Genom att beakta mängden publik information som blir tillgänglig via resultatrapporter är det inte möjligt för modellerna för analytikers beslutsprocesser att ge upphov till de nivåer av prognosspridning som kan observeras i data. Slutsatsen blir därmed att de underliggande teoretiska modellerna för prognosspridning är delvis bristande och att spridning i prognoser istället mer troligt följer av en ökad osäkerhet bland analytikerna, i enlighet med vad analytiker de facto nämner i sina rapporter. Resultaten är viktiga eftersom en förståelse av osäkerhet runt t.ex. resultatrapportering bidrar till en allmän förståelse för resultatrapporteringsmiljön som i sin tur är av ytterst stor betydelse för prisbildning på finansmarknader. Vidare används typiskt ökad prognosspridning som en indikation på ökad informationsasymmetri i redovisningsforskning, ett fenomen som denna avhandling därmed ifrågasätter.

Changing teachers´ practices in regular schools enrolling children with visual impairment

The number of persons with visual impairment in Tanzania is estimated to over 1.6 million. About half a million of these persons are children aged 7-13. Only about 1% of these children are enrolled in schools. The special schools and units are too few and in most cases they are far away from the children’s homes. More and more regular schools are enrolling children with visual impairment, but the schools lack financial resources, tactile teaching materials and trained special education teachers. Children with visual impairment enrolled in regular schools seldom get enough support and often fail in examinations. The general aim of this study was to contribute to increased knowledge and understanding about how teachers can change their teaching practices and thus facilitate the learning of children with visual impairment included in regular classrooms as they participate in an action research project. The project was conducted in a primary school in a poor rural region with a high frequency of blindness and visual impairment. The school was poorly resourced and the average number of pupils per class was 90. The teachers who participated in the collaborative action research project were the 14 teachers who taught blind or visually impaired pupils in grades 4 and 6, in total 6 pupils. The action research project was conducted during a period of 6 months and was carried out in five cycles. The teachers were actively involved in all the project activities; identifying challenges, planning solutions, producing teaching materials, reflecting on outcomes, collaborating and evaluating. Empirical data was collected with questionnaires, interviews, observations and focus group discussions. The findings of the study show that the teachers managed to change their teaching practices through systematic reflection, analysis and collaboration. The teachers produced a variety of tactile teaching materials, which facilitated the learning of the pupils with visual impairment. The pupils learned better and felt more included in the regular classes. The teachers gained new knowledge and skills. They grew professionally and started to collaborate with each other. The study contributes to new knowledge of how collaborative action research can be conducted in the area of special education in a Tanzanian school context. The study has also relevance to the planning of school-based professional development programs and teacher education programs in Tanzania and in other low-income countries. The results also point at strategies which can promote inclusion of children with disabilities in regular schools.

The Cycle Times of Working Capital: Financial Value Chain Analysis Method

Interest towards working capital management increased among practitioners and researchers because the financial crisis of 2008 caused the deterioration of the general financial situation. The importance of managing working capital effectively increased dramatically during the financial crisis. On one hand, companies highlighted the importance of working capital management as part of short-term financial management to overcome funding difficulties. On the other hand, in academia, it has been highlighted the need to analyze working capital management from a wider perspective namely from the value chain perspective. Previously, academic articles mostly discussed working capital management from a company-centered perspective. The objective of this thesis was to put working capital management in a wider and more academic perspective and present case studies of the value chains of industries as instrumental in theoretical contributions and practical contributions as complementary to theoretical contributions and conclusions. The principal assumption of this thesis is that selffinancing of value chains can be established through effective working capital management. Thus, the thesis introduces the financial value chain analysis method which is employed in the empirical studies. The effectiveness of working capital management of the value chains is studied through the cycle time of working capital. The financial value chain analysis method employed in this study is designed for considering value chain level phenomena. This method provides a holistic picture of the value chain through financial figures. It extends the value chain analysis to the industry level. Working capital management is studied by the cash conversion cycle that measures the length (days) of time a company has funds tied up in working capital, starting from the payment of purchases to the supplier and ending when remittance of sales is received from the customers. The working capital management practices employed in the automotive, pulp and paper and information and communication technology industries have been studied in this research project. Additionally, the Finnish pharmaceutical industry is studied to obtain a deeper understanding of the working capital management of the value chain. The results indicate that the cycle time of working capital is constant in the value chain context over time. The cash conversion cycle of automotive, pulp and paper, and ICT industries are on average 70, 60 and 40 days, respectively. The difference is mainly a consequence of the different cycle time of inventories. The financial crisis of 2008 affected the working capital management of the industries similarly. Both the cycle time of accounts receivable and accounts payable increased between 2008 and 2009. The results suggest that the companies of the automotive, pulp and paper and ICT value chains were not able to self-finance. Results do not indicate the improvement of value chains position in regard to working capital management either. The findings suggest that companies operating in the Finnish pharmaceutical industry are interested in developing their own working capital management, but collaboration with the value chain partners is not considered interesting. Competition no longer occurs between individual companies, but between value chains. Therefore the financial value chain analysis method introduced in this thesis has the potential to support value chains in improving their competitiveness.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Spectrum of stock price behavior - NYSE case study

The desire to create a statistical or mathematical model, which would allow predicting the future changes in stock prices, was born many years ago. Economists and mathematicians are trying to solve this task by applying statistical analysis and physical laws, but there are still no satisfactory results. The main reason for this is that a stock exchange is a non-stationary, unstable and complex system, which is influenced by many factors. In this thesis the New York Stock Exchange was considered as the system to be explored. A topological analysis, basic statistical tools and singular value decomposition were conducted for understanding the behavior of the market. Two methods for normalization of initial daily closure prices by Dow Jones and S&P500 were introduced and applied for further analysis. As a result, some unexpected features were identified, such as a shape of distribution of correlation matrix, a bulk of which is shifted to the right hand side with respect to zero. Also non-ergodicity of NYSE was confirmed graphically. It was shown, that singular vectors differ from each other by a constant factor. There are for certain results no clear conclusions from this work, but it creates a good basis for the further analysis of market topology.

Financial controlling and management in recovered paper joint ventures

The objective of this Master’s thesis is to examine financial functions, controlling and management in joint ventures of Manufacturing Corporation Oyj Recovered Paper business area. This case study investigated the current situation of financial functions and find out causes that have led the situation. Current situation of financial functions in joint ventures is variable. The most of the companies is outsourced at least some tasks. However, narrow reporting and problems in reliability are the biggest lack of financial controlling and management. The result of study consists of two parts: short-term and long-term improvement. Short-term improvement includes selected solution to outsource all routine financial tasks to new outsourcing partner and improve financial functions. Long-term improvements aim to create better controlling and management system to joint ventures. It is formed corporate governance and performance measurement. In this study it developed new Balanced Scorecard (BSC) for recovered paper joint ventures. Dimensions of BSC are quality, delivery (time), price and financial controlling and management. Earlier researched are showed problems in success of joint venture relationships. Similar results are obtained in this study. In future research, suitable of developed Balanced Scorecard for other industries could be studied

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Quantitative analysis of nodal prices in the New Zealand Electricity Spot Market

Time series of hourly electricity spot prices have peculiar properties. Electricity is by its nature difficult to store and has to be available on demand. There are many reasons for wanting to understand correlations in price movements, e.g. risk management purposes. The entire analysis carried out in this thesis has been applied to the New Zealand nodal electricity prices: offer prices (from 29 May 2002 to 31 March 2009) and final prices (from 1 January 1999 to 31 March 2009). In this paper, such natural factors as location of the node and generation type in the node that effects the correlation between nodal prices have been reviewed. It was noticed that the geographical factor affects the correlation between nodes more than others. Therefore, the visualisation of correlated nodes was done. However, for the offer prices the clear separation of correlated and not correlated nodes was not obtained. Finally, it was concluded that location factor most strongly affects correlation of electricity nodal prices; problems in visualisation probably associated with power losses when the power is transmitted over long distance.

Predicting bankruptcy of Finnish limited liability companies from historical financial statements

This master’s thesis studies the probability of bankruptcy of Finnish limited liability companies as a part of credit risk assessment. The main idea of this thesis is to build and test bankruptcy prediction models for Finnish limited liability companies that can be utilized in credit decision making. The data used in this thesis consists of historical financial statements from 2112 Finnish limited liability companies, half of which have filed for bankruptcy. A total of four models are developed, two with logistic regression and two with multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA). The time horizon of the models varies from 1 to 2 years prior to the bankruptcy, and 14 different financial variables are used in the model formation. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the models ranges between 81.7% and 88.9%, and the best prediction accuracy is achieved with the one year prior the bankruptcy logistic regression model. However the difference between the best logistic model and the best MDA model is minimal. Overall based on the results of this thesis it can be concluded that predicting bankruptcy is possible to some extent, but naturally the results are not perfect.