A quasi-likelihood method for fractal-dimension estimation

We propose a simple method of constructing quasi-likelihood functions for dependent data based on conditional-mean-variance relationships, and apply the method to estimating the fractal dimension from box-counting data. Simulation studies were carried out to compare this method with the traditional methods. We also applied this technique to real data from fishing grounds in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia

Shared common variants in prostate cancer and blood lipids

Background Epidemiological and clinical studies suggest comorbidity between prostate cancer (PCA) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. However, the relationship between these two phenotypes is still not well understood. Here we sought to identify shared genetic loci between PCA and CVD risk factors. Methods We applied a genetic epidemiology method based on conjunction false discovery rate (FDR) that combines summary statistics from different genome-wide association studies (GWAS), and allows identification of genetic overlap between two phenotypes. We evaluated summary statistics from large, multi-centre GWA studies of PCA (n = 50 000) and CVD risk factors (n = 200 000) [triglycerides (TG), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, waist-hip ratio and type 2 diabetes (T2D)]. Enrichment of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with PCA and CVD risk factors was assessed with conditional quantile-quantile plots and the Anderson-Darling test. Moreover, we pinpointed shared loci using conjunction FDR. Results We found the strongest enrichment of P-values in PCA was conditional on LDL and conditional on TG. In contrast, we found only weak enrichment conditional on HDL or conditional on the other traits investigated. Conjunction FDR identified altogether 17 loci; 10 loci were associated with PCA and LDL, 3 loci were associated with PCA and TG and additionally 4 loci were associated with PCA, LDL and TG jointly (conjunction FDR < 0.01). For T2D, we detected one locus adjacent to HNF1B. Conclusions We found polygenic overlap between PCA predisposition and blood lipids, in particular LDL and TG, and identified 17 pleiotropic gene loci between PCA and LDL, and PCA and TG, respectively. These findings provide novel pathobiological insights and may have implications for trials using targeting lipid-lowering agents in a prevention or cancer setting.

The ninth 48hr game making challenge (2015)

The 48 hour game making challenge has been running since 2007. In recent years, we have not only been running a 'game jam' for the local community but we have also been exploring the way in which the event itself and the place of the event has the potential to create its own stories. The 2015 challenge is part of a series of data collection opportunities focussed on the game jam itself and the meaning making that the participants engage in about the event. We are continuing the data collection commenced in 2012: "Game jams are the creative festivals of the game development community and a game jam is very much an event or performance; its stories are those of subjective experience. Participants return year after year and recount personal stories from previous challenges; arrival in the 48hr location typically inspires instances of individual memory and narration more in keeping with those of a music festival or an oft frequented holiday destination. Since its inception, the 48hr has been heavily documented, from the photo-blogging of our first jam and the twitter streams of more recent events to more formal interviews and documentaries (see Anderson, 2012). We have even had our own moments of Gonzo journalism with an on-site press room one year and an ‘embedded’ journalist another year (Keogh, 2011). In the last two years of the 48hr we have started to explore ways and means to collect more abstract data during the event, that is, empirical data about movement and activity. The intent behind this form of data collection was to explore graphic and computer generated visualisations of the event, not for the purpose of formal analysis but in the service of further story telling." [exerpt from truna aka j.turner, Thomas & Owen, 2013) See: truna aka j.turner, Thomas & Owen (2013) Living the indie life: mapping creative teams in a 48 hour game jam and playing with data, Proceedings of the 9th Australasian Conference on Interactive Entertainment, IE'2013, September 30 - October 01 2013, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Early stopping by using stochastic curtailment in a three-arm sequential trial

Summary. Interim analysis is important in a large clinical trial for ethical and cost considerations. Sometimes, an interim analysis needs to be performed at an earlier than planned time point. In that case, methods using stochastic curtailment are useful in examining the data for early stopping while controlling the inflation of type I and type II errors. We consider a three-arm randomized study of treatments to reduce perioperative blood loss following major surgery. Owing to slow accrual, an unplanned interim analysis was required by the study team to determine whether the study should be continued. We distinguish two different cases: when all treatments are under direct comparison and when one of the treatments is a control. We used simulations to study the operating characteristics of five different stochastic curtailment methods. We also considered the influence of timing of the interim analyses on the type I error and power of the test. We found that the type I error and power between the different methods can be quite different. The analysis for the perioperative blood loss trial was carried out at approximately a quarter of the planned sample size. We found that there is little evidence that the active treatments are better than a placebo and recommended closure of the trial.

Adsorption isotherms for neutral organic compounds-A hierarchy in modelling: Part II

A two-state model allowing for size disparity between the solvent and the adsorbate is analysed to derive the adsorption isotherm for electrosorption of organic compounds. Explicity, the organic adsorbate is assumed to occupy "n" lattice sites at the interface as compared to "one" by the solvent. The model parameters are the respective permanent and induced dipole moments apart from the nearest neighbour distance. The coulombic interactions due to permanent and induced dipole moments, discreteness of charge effects, and short-range and specific substrate interactions have all been incorporated. The adsorption isotherm is then derived using mean field approximation (MFA) and is found to be more general than the earlier multi-site versions of Bockris and Swinkels, Mohilner et al., and Bennes, as far as the entropy contributions are concerned. The role of electrostatic forces is explicity reflected in the adsorption isotherm via the Gibbs energy of adsorption term which itself is a quadratic function of the electrode charge-density. The approximation implicit in the adsorption isotherm of Mohilner et al. or Bennes is indicated briefly.

Adsorption isotherms for neutral organic compounds - A hierarchy in modelling: Part V. Models for the inner layer potential difference in the presence of dipolar adsorption

The relations for the inner layer potential &fference (E) in the presence of adsorbed orgamc molecules are derived for three hterarchlcal models, m terms of molecular constants like permanent &pole moments, polarlzablhtles, etc It is shown how the experimentally observed patterns of the E vs 0 plots (hnear m all ranges of $\sigma^M$, non-linear in one or both regions of o M, etc ) can be understood in a serm-quantltatlve manner from the simplest model in our hierarchy, viz the two-state site panty version Two-state multi-site and three-state (sxte panty) models are also analysed and the slope (3E/80),,M tabulated for these also The results for the Esm-Markov effect are denved for all the models and compared with the earlier result of Parsons. A comparison with the GSL phenomenologlcal equation is presented and its molecular basis, as well as the hmltatlons, is analysed. In partxcular, two-state multa-slte and three-state (site panty) models yield E-o M relations that are more general than the "umfied" GSL equation The posslblhty of vaewlng the compact layer as a "composite medium" with an "effective dlelectnc constant" and obtaimng novel phenomenological descnptions IS also indicated.

Adsorption isotherms-Microscopic modelling: Part II

A lattice formahsm using "spin variables" is employed to analyse multi-state models for the adsorption of neutral dipoles.In particular, a spin-1/2 (two-state) model incorporating permanent and reduced dipole moments of the solvent and the organic adsorbate,substrate interactions, and &screteness of charge effects is analysed The resulting Generalized Islng Hamaltonian is solved under mean field approximation (MFA) in order to derive the adsorption isotherm for organic molecules A few spin-1 (three-state) models are also analysed under MFA to describe the competitive adsorption of multi-state solvent and organic dipoles, and the appropriate equilibrium relations are derived The unification and isomorphism existing at the Hamlltonlan level for several diverse realizations, such as adsorption of ions and solvent/orgamc molecules, is indicated The possibility of analysing phase transitions using this generalized approach is briefly indicated.

Estimating equations for removal data analysis

We consider the problem of estimating a population size from successive catches taken during a removal experiment and propose two estimating functions approaches, the traditional quasi-likelihood (TQL) approach for dependent observations and the conditional quasi-likelihood (CQL) approach using the conditional mean and conditional variance of the catch given previous catches. Asymptotic covariance of the estimates and the relationship between the two methods are derived. Simulation results and application to the catch data from smallmouth bass show that the proposed estimating functions perform better than other existing methods, especially in the presence of overdispersion.

A quasi-likelihood approach for ordered categorical data with overdispersion

Quasi-likelihood (QL) methods are often used to account for overdispersion in categorical data. This paper proposes a new way of constructing a QL function that stems from the conditional mean-variance relationship. Unlike traditional QL approaches to categorical data, this QL function is, in general, not a scaled version of the ordinary log-likelihood function. A simulation study is carried out to examine the performance of the proposed QL method. Fish mortality data from quantal response experiments are used for illustration.

A Fuzzy Approximation Scheme for Sequential Learning in Pattern Recognition

An adaptive learning scheme, based on a fuzzy approximation to the gradient descent method for training a pattern classifier using unlabeled samples, is described. The objective function defined for the fuzzy ISODATA clustering procedure is used as the loss function for computing the gradient. Learning is based on simultaneous fuzzy decisionmaking and estimation. It uses conditional fuzzy measures on unlabeled samples. An exponential membership function is assumed for each class, and the parameters constituting these membership functions are estimated, using the gradient, in a recursive fashion. The induced possibility of occurrence of each class is useful for estimation and is computed using 1) the membership of the new sample in that class and 2) the previously computed average possibility of occurrence of the same class. An inductive entropy measure is defined in terms of induced possibility distribution to measure the extent of learning. The method is illustrated with relevant examples.

Playing "Nordic": The Women of Niskavuori, Agri/Culture, and Imagining Finland on the Third Reich Stage

The theatrical censorship of the Third Reich considered the playwright's race and politics alongside the content of the drama. Given the political stigma of its "leftist" author, it is rather surprising that Hella Wuolijoki's Niskavuoren naiset opened in 1938 at the Staatliches Schauspielhaus in Hamburg. The play ran for fourteen performances before being closed by the Reichsdramaturgie, apparently at the instigation of Finnish critics. Yet this was not the end of the play's or its author's fortunes in the Third Reich, as the possibility of staging the play was raised several times over the next four years, coming to a close in 1942. Playing "Nordic" examines the ideological and theatrical background of this extended "cultural performance," as a means to reopening and reconstructing the work of the 1938 Die Frauen auf Niskavuori. Written by a Finnish, northern, "Nordic" author, and preoccupied with the dynamics of rural culture in an increasingly urbanized world, Niskavuoren naiset was understood in the Third Reich to illustrate and reinforce the racial, agri/cultural themes of Blut und Boden ("veri ja maa"). Playing "Nordic" examines this thematic relationship in three phases. The first phase uses archival materials to investigate the Reichsdramaturgie's understanding of the play and its author, and its ongoing discussion of Wuolijoki from 1937 to 1942. Play evaluator Sigmund Graff's description of Niskavuoren naiset as hamsunartig, or "Hamsun-esque," inspires the second phase of the dissertation, which first elaborates the meanings of Blut und Boden through a reading of contemporary "racial" theory and anthropology, and then assesses the representation of Finland within this discourse, one of the dominant cultural paradigms of the Third Reich. Imaging Finland for German audiences, the play stood among analogous, continued efforts to represent Finland and the rural life in the Third Reich, colored by Blut und Boden: art and agricultural exhibitions, essays and propaganda literature, mass demonstrations of the peasantry. This wider framework for the performance of "Finland" materializes the abstract or theoretical program of Blut und Boden in its everyday performed meanings; as such it provides the essential background for reading the Hamburg production of Die Frauen auf Niskavuori, which sustains the third and final phase. The German translation and the Hamburg photographic record are compared with the Helsinki premiere to assess the impact of Blut und Boden on the representation of Wuolijoki's play in the Third Reich. The journalistic critical response illuminates the effect that the dramatic complex of rural and racial values - generically identified as Bauerndrama in the Third Reich - had on the reception of the play; at the same time, both visual and critical documents also suggest possible moments of theatrical dissent in the Hamburg production. Playing "Nordic" undertakes a documentary and cultural reading of the changing theatrical meanings of Wuolijoki's Niskavuoren naiset as it crossed the frontier from Finland to the stage of the Third Reich. It also provides a model for the ways theatrical signification operates within a network of cultural and ideological meanings, suggesting the ideological work of theatrical production depends on, reinforces, and contests that tissue of values. Although Finnish criticism of Niskavuoren naiset has assumed the play's Blut und Boden resonance contributed to Wuolijoki's success in the Third Reich, this study shows a considerably more complex situation. This revealing production dramatizes the changing uses of plays in a politicized national and transnational context. As part of the framing of "Nordic" identity on the wider stage of the Third Reich, Die Frauen auf Niskavuori exemplifies the conjunction of concurrent - sometimes independent, sometimes interlocking - "racial" and national ideologies.

Idyll eller verklighet? : Albert Edelfelt och Gunnar Berndtson i det moderna genombrottets ambivalens

Idyll or Reality? Albert Edelfelt, Gunnar Berndtson and the ambivalent breakthrough of modernity Albert Edelfelt (1854-1905) and Gunnar Berndtson (1854-1895) have much in common. In this dissertation, I study their paintings of local peasants and fishermen and of the gentry’s summer in the county of Uusimaa in southern Finland, in the context of Nordic history of ideas. The breakthrough of modernity, with its attention on debating social problems, provides a novel angle into the oeuvres of the two artists. My focus is on the paintings which emerge in the collision of the public discussion of social matters and the values of the artists’ manorial milieu. The artists’ relation to the public discussion is scrutinized through two of the main topics: the question of the common people and democracy, and the question of equality between men and women. My dissertation is a contextual study which is based on the analysis of the artworks of Edelfelt and Berndtson, on their letters, and on the study of drama and fiction of their time. The notion “liberté, egalité, fraternité” is linked to the breakthrough of modernity. Both artists were aware of the ideal of equality. They used the means and the themes of contemporary art in their presentations, but their pictures contain the ideal of an earlier epoch: the hardworking, but still complacent common people. This conception of the common people is also reflected in the poems of J. L. Runeberg. Women of the late 19th century challenged woman’s primary role as wife and mother. In Edelfelt’s and Berndtson’s depictions of the gentry enjoying summer, women and children have the main role. Notwithstanding the debate of the breakthrough of modernity they depicted women almost without exception as good mothers. Their paintings often depict lazy days in the sunshine, which were, in reality, rare moments for the mistress of the house. Edelfelt’s and Berndtson’s subjects from the Uusimaa countryside coincide with the topics of the breakthrough of modernity, but both the pictures of the common people and the depictions of the gentry enjoying summer, are a retouched picture of reality, often an idyll, in which the public discussion of social matters is evident only materially or not at all.

Two Methods of Ambiguity Resolution in Pulse Doppler Weather Radars

A comparison is made of the performance of a weather Doppler radar with a staggered pulse repetition time and a radar with a random (but known) phase. As a standard for this comparison, the specifications of the forthcoming next generation weather radar (NEXRAD) are used. A statistical analysis of the spectral momentestimates for the staggered scheme is developed, and a theoretical expression for the signal-to-noise ratio due to recohering-filteringrecohering for the random phase radar is obtained. Algorithms for assignment of correct ranges to pertinent spectral moments for both techniques are presented.

The genetic effective and adult census size of an Australian population of tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus)

This study compares estimates of the census size of the spawning population with genetic estimates of effective current and long-term population size for an abundant and commercially important marine invertebrate, the brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus). Our aim was to focus on the relationship between genetic effective and census size that may provide a source of information for viability analyses of naturally occurring populations. Samples were taken in 2001, 2002 and 2003 from a population on the east coast of Australia and temporal allelic variation was measured at eight polymorphic microsatellite loci. Moments-based and maximum-likelihood estimates of current genetic effective population size ranged from 797 to 1304. The mean long-term genetic effective population size was 9968. Although small for a large population, the effective population size estimates were above the threshold where genetic diversity is lost at neutral alleles through drift or inbreeding. Simulation studies correctly predicted that under these experimental conditions the genetic estimates would have non-infinite upper confidence limits and revealed they might be overestimates of the true size. We also show that estimates of mortality and variance in family size may be derived from data on average fecundity, current genetic effective and census spawning population size, assuming effective population size is equivalent to the number of breeders. This work confirms that it is feasible to obtain accurate estimates of current genetic effective population size for abundant Type III species using existing genetic marker technology.

The Past is the Past? The Impossibility of Erasure of Historical LGBTIQ Policing

This paper considers the impossibility of erasing historical policing of LGBTIQ people. Significant events of LGBTIQ policing may appear to fade into the past and we perhaps assume they literally disappear – not discussed, not thought about, and erased from cultural memory. At times we see evidence of an almost nostalgic contemplation about LGBTIQ policing of the past embedded in the notion that we have moved beyond that point to the future, never to return to those histories. If we draw on the work of Foucault, an impossibility becomes apparent. Foucault suggests that discursive traces circulate in discourse and they emerge and re-emerge to shape future discourses. This paper ruminates on a case example, particularly the policing of the Gay and Lesbian Mardi Gras in Sydney, Australia, in 2013. We argue this case demonstrates Foucault’s understanding of discursive history in action: it shows how the remnant traces of historical LGBTIQ policing can re-emerge to profoundly shape LGBTIQ-police relations in the present. In addition to the case, we draw on qualitative data showing how ideas about historical LGBTIQ policing are rehearsed in a consistent cycle of iteration and reiteration through the musings of research participants across three different projects on LGBTIQ policing. We conclude therefore that LGBTIQ policing in the past may never be erased because moments reminiscent of historical LGBTIQ policing are always already circulating and undermining the governmental work of policing organisations in the present.