Interacting effects of vegetation, soils and management on the sensitivity of Australian savanna rangelands to climate change

There is an increasing need to understand what makes vegetation at some locations more sensitive to climate change than others. For savanna rangelands, this requires building knowledge of how forage production in different land types will respond to climate change, and identifying how location-specific land type characteristics, climate and land management control the magnitude and direction of its responses to change. Here, a simulation analysis is used to explore how forage production in 14 land types of the north-eastern Australian rangelands responds to three climate change scenarios of +3A degrees C, +17% rainfall; +2A degrees C, -7% rainfall; and +3A degrees C, -46% rainfall. Our results demonstrate that the controls on forage production responses are complex, with functional characteristics of land types interacting to determine the magnitude and direction of change. Forage production may increase by up to 60% or decrease by up to 90% in response to the extreme scenarios of change. The magnitude of these responses is dependent on whether forage production is water or nitrogen (N) limited, and how climate changes influence these limiting conditions. Forage production responds most to changes in temperature and moisture availability in land types that are water-limited, and shows the least amount of change when growth is restricted by N availability. The fertilisation effects of doubled atmospheric CO2 were found to offset declines in forage production under 2A degrees C warming and a 7% reduction in rainfall. However, rising tree densities and declining land condition are shown to reduce potential opportunities from increases in forage production and raise the sensitivity of pastures to climate-induced water stress. Knowledge of these interactions can be applied in engaging with stakeholders to identify adaptation options.

Development of cat’s claw creeper leaf-tying moth Hypocosmia pyrochroma (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) at different temperatures: Implications for establishment as a biological control agent in Australia and South Africa

The leaf-tying moth Hypocosmia pyrochroma Jones (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), a native of sub tropical South America, has been introduced as a biological control agent for cat’s claw creeper, Dolichandra unguis-cati (L.) Lohman (Bignoniaceae), in Australia and South Africa. So far there has been no evidence of its field establishment in either country. A narrow temperature tolerance is a potential limiting factor for the establishment of weed biological control insects in novel habitats. In this study, we evaluated the effect of seven constant temperatures (12–40 °C) on the survival and development of H. pyrochroma in temperature-controlled cabinets. Temperatures between 20 and 30 °C were the most favorable for adult survival, oviposition, egg hatching, and larval and pupal development. Adult survival (12–40 °C) and egg development (15–35 °C) showed tolerance for wider temperature ranges than oviposition, and larval and pupal development, which were all negatively affected by both high (>30 °C) and low (<20 °C) temperatures. The degree-day (DD) requirement to complete a generation was estimated as 877 above a threshold temperature of 12 °C. Based on DD requirements and an obligatory winter diapause of pupae from mid-autumn to mid-spring, the potential number of generations (egg to adult) the leaf-tying moth can complete in a year in Australia or South Africa range from one to three. A climate-matching model predicted that the inland regions of both Australia and South Africa are less favorable for H. pyrochroma than the coastal areas. The study suggested that H. pyrochroma is more likely to establish in the coastal areas of Australia where most of the cat’s claw creeper infestations occur, than in South Africa where most of the cat’s claw creeper infestations are inland.

Uusmaalaisten viljelijöiden arviot uudesta ympäristötuesta

The agro-environmental subsidy scheme is the most important agricultural environmental policy instrument used in Finland. The principal aim of the agro-environmental subsidy is to reimburse farmer the costs of using environmentally sounder farming practices and the measures that aim for preserving the environment. It also serves as an economic incentive for ensuring the large enough participation. The agro-environmental subsidy scheme is to be reformed in 2007. The main question answered in thesis was that whether farmers in Uusimaa region are ready to participate in the environmental subsidy scheme on the basis of the economical reasons or not. The focus is on farmers' opinions about how difficult it is to carry out measures of new environmental subsidy and do these measures change their ways of farming. The analysis is based on an empirical study of the farmers attitudes towards the new environmental subsidy scheme. The theoretical framework of this thesis is based on principal-agent theory and on the theory of the firm. In principal-agent theory environmental subsidy is interpreted as a deal in which farmers function as agents and government as a principal. Theory of the firm provides a theoretical framework for the analysis, through which we aim to analyse how rationally behaving farmer makes decisions by economical reasons to participate in the environment subsidy scheme. The thesis points out that presumably the participation percentage will stay high during the period of the new environmental subsidy scheme.

Suomen maatalouden tuottamat kasvihuonekaasujen päästöt eri politiikkaskenaarioissa

Climate change is the single biggest environmental problem in the world at the moment. Although the effects are still not fully understood and there is considerable amount of uncertainty, many na-tions have decided to mitigate the change. On the societal level, a planner who tries to find an eco-nomically optimal solution to an environmental pollution problem seeks to reduce pollution from the sources where reductions are most cost-effective. This study aims to find out how effective the instruments of the agricultural policy are in the case of climate change mitigation in Finland. The theoretical base of this study is the neoclassical economic theory that is based on the assumption of a rational economic agent who maximizes his own utility. This theoretical base has been widened towards the direction clearly essential to the matter: the theory of environmental eco-nomics. Deeply relevant to this problem and central in the theory of environmental economics are the concepts of externalities and public goods. What are also relevant are the problems of global pollution and non-point-source pollution. Econometric modelling was the method that was applied to this study. The Finnish part of the AGMEMOD-model, covering the whole EU, was used for the estimation of the development of pollution. This model is a seemingly recursive, partially dynamic partial-equilibrium model that was constructed to predict the development of Finnish agricultural production of the most important products. For the study, I personally updated the model and also widened its scope in some relevant matters. Also, I devised a table that can calculate the emissions of greenhouse gases according to the rules set by the IPCC. With the model I investigated five alternative scenarios in comparison to the base-line scenario of Agenda 2000 agricultural policy. The alternative scenarios were: 1) the CAP reform of 2003, 2) free trade on agricultural commodities, 3) technological change, 4) banning the cultivation of organic soils and 5) the combination of the last three scenarios as the maximal achievement in reduction. The maximal achievement in the alternative scenario 5 was 1/3 of the level achieved on the base-line scenario. CAP reform caused only a minor reduction when com-pared to the base-line scenario. Instead, the free trade scenario and the scenario of technological change alone caused a significant reduction. The biggest single reduction was achieved by banning the cultivation of organic land. However, this was also the most questionable scenario to be real-ized, the reasons for this are further elaborated in the paper. The maximal reduction that can be achieved in the Finnish agricultural sector is about 11 % of the emission reduction that is needed to comply with the Kyoto protocol.

Life history of Anomalococcus indicus (Hemiptera: Lecanodiaspididae), a potential biological control agent for prickly acacia Vachellia nilotica ssp indica in Australia

Babul scale Anomalococcus indicus Ramakrishna Ayyar, a major pest of Vachellia nilotica (L.f.) P.J.H. Hurter & Mabb. on the Indian subcontinent, has been identified as a potential biocontrol agent for prickly acacia V. nilotica subsp. indica (Benth.) Kyal. & Boatwr. in Australia and was imported from southern India for detailed assessment. The life history of A. indicus under controlled glasshouse conditions was determined as a part of this assessment. Consistent with other scale species, A. indicus has a distinct sexual dimorphism which becomes apparent during the second instar. Females have three instars, developing into sexually mature nymphs after 52 days. The generation time from egg to egg was 89 days. Females are ovoviviparous, ovipositing mature eggs into a cavity underneath their body. An average of 802 +/- 114 offspring were produced per female. Reproductive output was closely associated with female size; larger females produced more than 1200 offspring. Crawlers emerged from beneath the female after an indeterminate period of inactivity. They have the only life stage at which A. indicus can disperse, though the majority settle close to their parent female forming aggregative distributions. In the absence of food, most crawlers died within three days. Males took 62 days to develop through five instars. Unlike females, males underwent complete metamorphosis. Adult males were small and winged, and lived for less than a day. Parthenogenesis was not observed in females excluded from males. The life history of A. indicus allows it to complement other biological control agents already established on prickly acacia in Australia.

Early Childhood teachers’ work in a time of change

This article investigates teacher decision-making in a time of rapid educational reforms. Institutional ethnography is used to discover how teachers’ work is co-ordinated by the texts of a new national curriculum, and a system for the assessment and ratings of kindergarten, preschool and long day-care services in individual settings and across sites. The research draws on video recorded interview data gathered from five teachers working with three to five year old children in kindergarten classrooms throughout South East Queensland. Analysis shows the reported effects of policy regimes designed to improve the quality of learning young children experience, on classroom teachers’ work. Findings suggest that increasing levels of governance enacted through policy texts are creating an audit culture where teachers’ educational work with children is changing. The article argues that the reported workload associated with the production of evidence, and the focus on providing ‘proof’ of quality, is taking teachers away from time spent building educative relationships with children. Note: In Queensland, kindergarten caters for children aged three and a half to five years. This year is known as Preschool in some Australian states.

Sweetcorn colour change and consumer perception associated with increasing zeaxanthin for the amelioration of age-related macular degeneration

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in the developed world. Increasing dietary intake of lutein- and zeaxanthin-rich foods is a potential means of preventing, or at least slowing the progression of AMD. Zeaxanthin levels in tropical super-sweetcorn was increased from 1.1 to 11.9 µg/g FW through conventional breeding and selection, associated with both an increase in the proportion of zeaxanthin relative to other carotenoids, and a general increase in carotenoid synthesis. Increasing zeaxanthin was associated with a colour shift from traditional ‘canary-yellow’ kernels to a golden-orange colour. Kernel colour was most closely correlated (r2=69%) with an increase in beta-arm carotenoid concentration. Consumer analysis revealed that prior to any knowledge of zeaxanthin-related health benefit, consumers would readily purchase both yellow and gold cobs. Once the health benefit was explained, this extended to deep-gold cobs. Colour difference between regular yellow sweetcorn and high-zeaxanthin sweetcorn could potentially be used as a visual means of differentiating high-zeaxanthin sweetcorn in the marketplace.

Patient preferences for receiving remote communication support for lifestyle physical activity behaviour change: The perspective of patients with musculoskeletal disorders from three hospital services

This study examined patients’ preference ratings for receiving support via remote communication to increase their lifestyle physical activity. Methods People with musculoskeletal disorders ( n=221 of 296 eligible) accessing one of three clinics provided preference ratings for “how much” they wanted to receive physical activity support via five potential communication modalities. The five ratings were generated on a horizontal analogue rating scale (0 represented “not at all”; 10 represented “very much”). Results Most (n=155, 70%) desired referral to a physical activity promoting intervention. “Print and post” communications had the highest median preference rating (7/10), followed by email and telephone (both 5/10), text messaging (1/10), and private Internet-based social network messages (0/10). Desire to be referred was associated with higher preference for printed materials (coefficient = 2.739, p<0.001), telephone calls (coefficient = 3.000, p<0.001), and email (coefficient = 2.059, p=0.02). Older age was associated with lower preference for email (coefficient = −0.100, p<0.001), texting (coefficient = −0.096, p<0.001), and social network messages (coefficient = −0.065, p<0.001). Conclusion Patients desiring support to be physically active indicated preferences for interventions with communication via print, email, or telephone calls.

Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031–2060 compared to a baseline of 1961–1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16–20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential adaptation to ongoing climate changes. Easing nitrogen stress via increasing fertilizer inputs would increase absolute yields, but also make the crops more responsive to climate stresses, thus enhancing the negative impacts of climate change in a relative sense. Finally, CO2 fertilization would significantly offset the negative climate

Biological management of the invasive Vachellia nilotica ssp. indica (Benth.) Kyal. & Boatwr. (Fabales: Mimosoideae) in tropical Australia: stress-inducing potential of Anomalococcus indicus Ramakrishna (Insecta: Hemiptera: Coccoidea: Lecanodiaspididae), an agent of promise

Vachellia nilotica ssp. indica (hereafter, V. n. indica) is an important tree weed in Australia. Its dense populations induce undesirable changes in the vast areas of northern Australia. Because chemical and mechanical management options appear unviable for various reasons, biological management of this tree is considered a better option. Among the many trialled arthropods in Australian context, Anomalococcus indicus, a lecanodiaspid native to India, has been identified as a potent-candidate, since in India, its native terrain, it is the most widespread and occurs throughout the year. Severe infestations of A. indicus cause defoliation, wilting and death of branches, and occasionally the tree. Populations of A. indicus have been brought into Australia and are being tested for its host specificity under quarantine conditions. This article reports the physiological damage and stress it inflicts in the shoots of V. n. indica. Younger-nymphal instars of A. indicus feed on cortical-parenchyma cells of young stems, whereas the older instars and adults feed from the phloem of old stems. Two conspicuous responses of V. n. indica arising in response to the feeding action of A. indicus are changes in the cell-wall dynamics and irregular cell divisions. The feeding action of A. indicus elicits a sequence of reactions in the stem tissues of V. n. indica such as differentiation of thick-walled elements in the outer cortical parenchyma, differential thickening of cells with supernumerary layers of either suberin or lignin, proliferations of parenchyma and phloem, wall thickening and obliteration of inner lumen of phloem cells, and the sieve plates plugged with callosic deposits. The responses are the culminations of interaction between the virulence factor (one or more of the salivary proteins?) from A. indicus and the resistance factor in V. n. indica. We have analysed structural changes in the context of their functions, by comparing the feeding action of A. indicus with that of other hemipteroids. From the level of stress it induces, this study confirms that A. indicus has the potential to be an effective biological management of V. n. indica in Australia. © 2014 © 2014 Taylor & Francis and Aboricultural Association.

Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

Abstract The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17 %. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9 % by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6 % in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50 % to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk.

Spatial and temporal variability in midge (Nematocera) assemblages in shallow Finnish lakes (60−70 °N) : community-based modelling of past environmental change

Multi- and intralake datasets of fossil midge assemblages in surface sediments of small shallow lakes in Finland were studied to determine the most important environmental factors explaining trends in midge distribution and abundance. The aim was to develop palaeoenvironmental calibration models for the most important environmental variables for the purpose of reconstructing past environmental conditions. The developed models were applied to three high-resolution fossil midge stratigraphies from southern and eastern Finland to interpret environmental variability over the past 2000 years, with special focus on the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent anthropogenic changes. The midge-based results were compared with physical properties of the sediment, historical evidence and environmental reconstructions based on diatoms (Bacillariophyta), cladocerans (Crustacea: Cladocera) and tree rings. The results showed that the most important environmental factor controlling midge distribution and abundance along a latitudinal gradient in Finland was the mean July air temperature (TJul). However, when the dataset was environmentally screened to include only pristine lakes, water depth at the sampling site became more important. Furthermore, when the dataset was geographically scaled to southern Finland, hypolimnetic oxygen conditions became the dominant environmental factor. The results from an intralake dataset from eastern Finland showed that the most important environmental factors controlling midge distribution within a lake basin were river contribution, water depth and submerged vegetation patterns. In addition, the results of the intralake dataset showed that the fossil midge assemblages represent fauna that lived in close proximity to the sampling sites, thus enabling the exploration of within-lake gradients in midge assemblages. Importantly, this within-lake heterogeneity in midge assemblages may have effects on midge-based temperature estimations, because samples taken from the deepest point of a lake basin may infer considerably colder temperatures than expected, as shown by the present test results. Therefore, it is suggested here that the samples in fossil midge studies involving shallow boreal lakes should be taken from the sublittoral, where the assemblages are most representative of the whole lake fauna. Transfer functions between midge assemblages and the environmental forcing factors that were significantly related with the assemblages, including mean air TJul, water depth, hypolimnetic oxygen, stream flow and distance to littoral vegetation, were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) techniques, which outperformed all the other tested numerical approaches. Application of the models in downcore studies showed mostly consistent trends. Based on the present results, which agreed with previous studies and historical evidence, the Medieval Climate Anomaly between ca. 800 and 1300 AD in eastern Finland was characterized by warm temperature conditions and dry summers, but probably humid winters. The Little Ice Age (LIA) prevailed in southern Finland from ca. 1550 to 1850 AD, with the coldest conditions occurring at ca. 1700 AD, whereas in eastern Finland the cold conditions prevailed over a longer time period, from ca. 1300 until 1900 AD. The recent climatic warming was clearly represented in all of the temperature reconstructions. In the terms of long-term climatology, the present results provide support for the concept that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has a positive correlation with winter precipitation and annual temperature and a negative correlation with summer precipitation in eastern Finland. In general, the results indicate a relatively warm climate with dry summers but snowy winters during the MCA and a cool climate with rainy summers and dry winters during the LIA. The results of the present reconstructions and the forthcoming applications of the models can be used in assessments of long-term environmental dynamics to refine the understanding of past environmental reference conditions and natural variability required by environmental scientists, ecologists and policy makers to make decisions concerning the presently occurring global, regional and local changes. The developed midge-based models for temperature, hypolimnetic oxygen, water depth, littoral vegetation shift and stream flow, presented in this thesis, are open for scientific use on request.

Integration of natural hazards, risk and climate change into spatial planning practices

Most countries of Europe, as well as many countries in other parts of the world, are experiencing an increased impact of natural hazards. It is often speculated, but not yet proven, that climate change might influence the frequency and magnitude of certain hydro-meteorological natural hazards. What has certainly been observed is a sharp increase in financial losses caused by natural hazards worldwide. Eventhough Europe appears to be a space that is not affected by natural hazards to such catastrophic extents as other parts of the world are, the damages experienced here are certainly increasing too. Natural hazards, climate change and, in particular, risks have therefore recently been put high on the political agenda of the EU. In the search for appropriate instruments for mitigating impacts of natural hazards and climate change, as well as risks, the integration of these factors into spatial planning practices is constantly receiving higher attention. The focus of most approaches lies on single hazards and climate change mitigation strategies. The current paradigm shift of climate change mitigation to adaptation is used as a basis to draw conclusions and recommendations on what concepts could be further incorporated into spatial planning practices. Especially multi-hazard approaches are discussed as an important approach that should be developed further. One focal point is the definition and applicability of the terms natural hazard, vulnerability and risk in spatial planning practices. Especially vulnerability and risk concepts are so many-fold and complicated that their application in spatial planning has to be analysed most carefully. The PhD thesis is based on six published articles that describe the results of European research projects, which have elaborated strategies and tools for integrated communication and assessment practices on natural hazards and climate change impacts. The papers describe approaches on local, regional and European level, both from theoretical and practical perspectives. Based on these, passed, current and future potential spatial planning applications are reviewed and discussed. In conclusion it is recommended to shift from single hazard assessments to multi-hazard approaches, integrating potential climate change impacts. Vulnerability concepts should play a stronger role than present, and adaptation to natural hazards and climate change should be more emphasized in relation to mitigation. It is outlined that the integration of risk concepts in planning is rather complicated and would need very careful assessment to ensure applicability. Future spatial planning practices should also consider to be more interdisciplinary, i.e. to integrate as many stakeholders and experts as possible to ensure the sustainability of investments.

Reducing falls in hospital through education to change patient and staff behaviour: A stepped wedge cluster randomised controlled effectiveness trial

Background: Falls remain the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, particularly geriatric rehabilitation wards. Randomised trials reducing fall injuries in hospitals have been elusive. Our previous randomised trial (n = 1206) demonstrated that multimedia education with physiotherapist falls educator support reduced falls among patients with higher cognition levels, but this benefit was offset by a potential increase in falls rates among patients with poor cognition. In the previous trial, hospital staff were blinded to the allocation of individual patients, and only delivered usual care.