Univariate versus multivariate modeling of panel data

Panel data can be arranged into a matrix in two ways, called 'long' and 'wide' formats (LFand WF). The two formats suggest two alternative model approaches for analyzing paneldata: (i) univariate regression with varying intercept; and (ii) multivariate regression withlatent variables (a particular case of structural equation model, SEM). The present papercompares the two approaches showing in which circumstances they yield equivalent?insome cases, even numerically equal?results. We show that the univariate approach givesresults equivalent to the multivariate approach when restrictions of time invariance (inthe paper, the TI assumption) are imposed on the parameters of the multivariate model.It is shown that the restrictions implicit in the univariate approach can be assessed bychi-square difference testing of two nested multivariate models. In addition, commontests encountered in the econometric analysis of panel data, such as the Hausman test, areshown to have an equivalent representation as chi-square difference tests. Commonalitiesand differences between the univariate and multivariate approaches are illustrated usingan empirical panel data set of firms' profitability as well as a simulated panel data.

Growth mechanisms and timing of emplacement of a vertically layered mafic intrusion in the feeder zone of an ocean island volcano (Fuerteventura, Canary islands)

Résumé pour le grand public L'île de Fuerteventura (Canaries) offre l'occasion rare d'observer les racines d'un volcan océanique édifié il y a 25 à 30 millions d'années et complètement érodé. On y voit de nombreux petits plutons de forme et composition variées, témoignant d'autant d'épisodes de l'activité magmatique. L'un de ces plutons, appelé PX1, présente une structure inhabituelle formée d'une alternance de bandes verticales d'épaisseur métrique à hectométrique de roches sombres de composition pyroxénilique ou gabbroïque. Les pyroxénites résultent clairement de l'accumulation de cristaux de pyroxènes et non de la simple solidification d'un magma? Se pose dès lors la question de la nature du processus qui a conduit à l'accumulation verticale de niveaux concentrés en pyroxènes. En effet, les litages pyroxénitiques classiques sont subhorizontaux, car ils résultent de l'accumulation gravitaire des cristaux séparés du magma dont ils cristalli¬sent par sédimentation. Cette étude vise à identifier et comprendre les mécanismes qui ont engendré ce Iitage minéralogique vertical et l'im¬portant volume de ces faciès cumulatifs. Nous nous sommes également intéressés aux conditions de pression et de température régnant au moment de la mise en place du pluton, ainsi qu'à sa durée de vie et à sa vitesse de refroidis¬sement. Enfin une approche géochimique nous a permis de préciser la nature de la source mantellique des magmas liés à cette activité magmatique. PX1 est en réalité un complexe filonien formé à des conditions de pression et de température de 1-2 kbar et 1050- 1100°C; sa construction a nécessité au moins 150 km3 de magma. L'alternance d'horizons gabbroïques et pyroxéniti¬ques représente des injections successives de magma sous la forme de filons verticaux, mis en place dans un contexte régional en extension. L'étude des orientations des minéraux dans ces faciès révèle que les horizons gabbroïques enregistrent l'extension régionale, alors que les pyroxénites sont générées par une compaction au sein du pluton. Ceci suggère que le régime des contraintes, qui était extensif lors de l'initiation de la mise en place de PX1, est pério¬diquement devenu compressif au sein même du pluton. Cette compression serait liée à des cycles de mise en place où la vitesse de croissance du pluton dépassait celle de l'extension régionale. La différenciation observée au sein de chaque horizon, depuis des pyroxénites riches en olivine jusqu'à des pyroxé¬nites à plagioclase interstitiel et des gabbros, ainsi que la composition géochimique des minéraux qui les constituent suggèrent que chaque filon vertical s'est mis en place à partir d'un magma de composition identique, puis a évolué indépendamment des autres en fonction du régime thermique et du régime des contraintes local. Lorsque le magma en train de cristalliser s'est trouvé en compression, le liquide résiduel a été séparé des cristaux déjà formés et extrait du système, laissant derrière lui une accumulation de cristaux dont la nature et les proportions dépendaient du stade de cristallisation atteint par le magma au moment de l'extraction. Ainsi, les niveaux de pyroxénites à olivine (premier minéral à cristalliser) ont été formés lorsque le magma correspondant était encore peu cristallisé; à l'inverse, les py¬roxénites riches en plagioclase (minéral plus tardif dans la séquence de cristallisation) et certains gabbros à caractère cumulatif résultent d'une compression tardive dans le processus de cristallisation du filon concerné. Les liquides résiduels extraits des niveaux pyroxénitiques sont rarement observés dans PX1, certaines poches et filonets de com¬position anorthositique pourraient en être les témoins. L'essentiel de ces liquides a probablement gagné des niveaux supérieurs du pluton, voire la surface du volcan. L'origine du régime compressif périodique affectant les filons en voie de cristallisation est attribuée aux injections suivantes de magma au sein du pluton, qui se sont succédées à un rythme plus rapide que la vitesse de consolidation des filons. Des datations U/Pb de haute précision sur des cristaux de zircon et de baddeleyite ainsi que40Ar/39Ar sur des cris¬taux d'amphibole révèlent une initiation de la mise en place de PX1 il y a 22.1 ± 0,7 Ma; celle-ci a duré quelque 0,48 ± 0,22 à 0,52 ± 0,29 Ma. Ce laps de temps est compatible avec celui nécessaire à la cristallisation des filons individuels, qui va de moins d'une année lors de l'initiation du magmatisme à 5 ans lors du maximum d'activité de PX1. La présence de cristaux résorbés enregistrant une cristallisation complexe suggère l'existence d'une chambre mag¬matique convective sous-jacente à PX1 et périodiquement rechargée. Les compositions isotopiques des roches étu¬diées révèlent une source mantellique profonde de type point chaud avec une contribution du manteau lithosphéri- que métasomatisé présent sous les îles Canaries. Résumé L'intrusion mafique Miocène PX1 fait partie du soubassement superficiel (0.15-0.2 GPa, 1100 °Q d'un volcan d'île océanique. La particularité de ce pluton est l'existence d'alternances d'unités de gabbros et de pyroxénites qui met¬tent en évidence un litage magmatique vertical (NNE-SSW). Les horizons gabbroiques et pyroxénitiques sont constitués d'unités de différenciation métriques qui suggèrent tine mise en place par injections périodiques de filons verticaux de magma formant un complexe filonien. Chaque filon vertical a subi une différenciation parallèle à un front de solidification sub-vertical parallèle aux bords du filon. Les pyroxénites résultent du fractionnement et de l'accumulation d'olivine ± clinopyroxene ± plagioclase à partir d'un magma basaltique faiblement alcalin et sont interprétées comme étant des imités de différenciation tronquées dont le liquide interstitiel a été extrait par compaction. L'orientation préférentielle des clinopyroxènes dans ces pyroxe- nites (obtenues par analyse EBSD et micro-tomographique) révèle une composante de cisaillement simple dans la genèse de ces roches, ce qui confirme cette interprétation. La compaction des pyroxénites est probablement causée par a mise en place de filons de magma suivants. Le liquide interstitiel expulsé est probablement par ces derniers. Les clinopyroxènes des gabbros, montrent une composante de cisaillement pure suggérant qu'ils sont affectés par une déformation syn-magmatique parallèle aux zones de cisaillement NNE-SSW observées autour de PX1 et liées au contexte tectonique Miocène d'extension régionale. Ceci suggère que les gabbros sont liés à des taux de mise en place faibles à la fin de cycles d'activité magmatique et sont peu ou pas affectés par la compaction. L'initiation et la géométrie de PX1 sont donc contrôlées par le contexte tectonique régional d'extension alors que les taux et les volumes de magma dépendent de facteurs liés à la source. Des taux d'injection élevés résultent probable¬ment en une croissance du pluton supérieure à la place crée par cette extension. Dans ce cas de figure, la propagation des nouveaux dykes et l'inaptitude du magma à circuler à travers les anciens dykes cristallisés pourrait causer une augmentation de la pression non-lithostatique sur ces derniers, exprimée par un cisaillement simple et l'expulsion du liquide interstitiel qu'ils contiennent (documenté par les zones de collecte anorthositiques). Les compositions en éléments majeurs et traces des gabbros et pyroxenites de PX1 sont globalement homogènes et dépendent de la nature cumulative des échantillons. Cependant, de petites variations des concentrations en éléments traces ainsi que les teneurs en éléments traces des bordures de clinopyroxenes suggèrent que ces derniers ont subi un processus de rééquilibrage et de cristallisation in situ. L'homogénéité des compositions chimiques des échantillons, ainsi que la présence de grains de clinopyroxene résorbés suggère que le complexe filonien PX1 s'est mis en place au dessus d'une chambre magmatique périodiquement rechargée dans laquelle la convection est efficace. Chaque filon est donc issu d'un même magma, mais a subi une différenciation par cristallisation in situ (jusqu'à 70% de fraction¬nement) indépendamment des autres. Dans ces filons cristallisés, les minéraux cumulatifs subissent un rééquilibrage partiel avec les liquide interstitiel avant que ce dernier ne soit expulsé lors de la compaction (mettant ainsi un terme à la différenciation). Ce modèle de mise en place signifie qu'un minimum de 150Km3 de magma est nécessaire à la genèse de PX1, une partie de ce volume ayant été émis par le 'Central Volcanic Complex' de Fuerteventura. Les rapports isotopiques radiogéniques mesurés révèlent la contribution de trois pôles mantelliques dans la genèse du magma formant PX1. Le mélange de ces pôles HIMU, DMM et EM1 refléterai l'interaction du point chaud Cana¬rien avec un manteau lithosphérique hétérogène métasomatisé. Les petites variations de ces rapports et des teneurs en éléments traces au sein des faciès pourrait refléter des taux de fusion partielle variable de la source, résultant en un échantillonnage variable du manteau lithosphérique métasomatisé lors de son interaction avec le point chaud. Des datations U/Pb de haute précision (TIMS) sur des cristaux de zircon et de baddeleyite extraits de gabbros de PX1 révèlent que l'initiation de la cristallisation du magma a eu lieu il y a 22.10±0.07 Ma et que l'activité magmatique a duré un minimum de 0.48 à 0.52 Ma. Des âges 40Ar/39Ar obtenus sur amphibole sont de 21.9 ± 0.6 à 21.8 ± 0.3 Ma, identiques aux âges U/Pb. La combinaison de ces méthodes de datations, suggère que le temps maximum nécessaire à PX1 pour se refroidir en dessous de la température de fermeture de l'amphibole est de 0.8Ma. Ceci signifie que la durée de vie de PX1 est de 520 000 à 800 000 ans. La coexistence de cristaux de baddeleyite et de zircon dans un gabbro est attribuée à son interaction avec un fluide riche en C02 relâché par les carbonatites encaissantes lors du métamorphisme de contact généré par la mise en place de PX1 environ 160 000 ans après le début de sa mise en place. Les durées de vie obtenue sont en accord avec le modèle de mise en place suggérant une durée de cristallisation poux chaque filon allant de 1 an à 5 ans. Abstract The Miocene PX1 gabbro-pyroxenite intrusion (Fuerteventura, Canary Islands), is interpreted as the shallow-level feeder-zone (0.15-0.2 GPa and 1100-1120°C), to an ocean island volcano. The particularity of PX1 is that it displays a NNE-SSW trending vertical magmatic banding expressed by alternating gabbro and pyroxeriite sequences. The gabbro and pyroxenite sequences consist of metre-thick differentiation units, which suggest emplacement by pe¬riodic injection of magma pulses as vertical dykes that amalgamated, similarly to a sub-volcanic sheeted dyke com¬plex. Individual dykes underwent internal differentiation following a solidification front (favoured by a significant lateral/horizontal thermal gradient) parallel to the dyke edges. Pyroxenitic layers result from the fractionation and accumulation of clinopyroxene ± olivine ± plagioclase crystals from a mildly alkaline basaltic liquid and are interpre¬ted as truncated differentiation sequences, from which residual melts were extracted by compaction. Clinopyroxene mineral orientation in pyroxenites (evidenced by EBSD and micro X-ray tomography analysis) display a marked pure shear component, supporting this interpretation. Compaction and squeezing of the crystal mush is ascribed to the incoming and inflating magma pulses. The resulting expelled interstitial liquid was likely collected and erupted along with the magma flowing through the newly injected dykes. Gabbro sequences represent crystallised coalesced magma batches, emplaced at lower rates at the end of eruptive cycles, and underwent minor melt extraction as evi¬denced by clinopyroxene orientations that record a simple shear component suggesting syn-magmatic deformation parallel to observed NNF.-SSW trending shear-zones induced by the regional tensional Miocene stress-field. The initiation and geometry of PX1 is controlled by the regional extensional tectonic regime whereas rates and vo¬lumes of magma depend on source-related factors. High injection rates are likely to induce intrusion growth rates larger than could be accommodated by the regional extension. In this case, dyke tip geometry and the inability of magma to circulate through previously emplaced and crystallised dykes could result in an increase of non-lithostatic pressure on previously emplaced mushy dyke walls; generating strong pure-shear compaction and interstitial melt expulsion within the feeder-zone as recorded by the cumulitic pyroxenite bands and anorthositic collection zones. The whole-rock major and trace-element chemistry of PX1 gabbros and pyroxenites is globally homogeneous and controlled by the cumulate nature of the samples (i.e. on the modal proportions of olivine, pyroxene, plagioclase and oxides). However, small variations of whole-rock trace-element contents as well as trace-element contents of clinopyroxene rims suggest that in-situ re-equilibration and crystallisation has occurred. Additionally, the global homogeneity and presence of complex zoning of rare resorbed clinopyroxene crystals suggest that the PX1 feeder- zone overlies a periodically replenished and efficiently mixed magma chamber. Each individual dyke of magma thus originated from a compositionally constant mildly alkaline magma and differentiated independently from the others reaching up to 70% fractionation. Following dyke arrest these are affected by interaction with the trapped interstitial liquid prior to its compaction-linked expulsion (thus stopping the differentiation process). This emplacement model implies that minimum amount of approximately 150 km3 of magma is needed to generate PX1, part of it having been erupted through the overlying Central Volcanic Complex of Fuerteventura. The radiogenic isotope ratios of PX1 samples reveal the contribution on three end-members during magma genesis. This mixing of the H1MU, EMI and DMM end-members could reflect the interaction of the deep-seated Canarian mantle plume with a heterogeneous metasomatic and sepentininsed lithospheric mantle. Additionally, the observed trace-element and isotopic variations within the same fades groups could reflect varying degrees of partial melting of the source region, thus tapping more or less large areas of the metasomatised lithospheric mantle during interac¬tion with the plume. High precision ID-TIMS U/Pb zircon and baddeleyite ages from the PX1 gabbro samples, indicate initiation of magma crystallisation at 22.10 ± 0.07 Ma. The magmatic activity lasted a minimum of 0.48 to 0.52 Ma. 40Ar/39Ar amphibole ages are of 21.9 ± 0.6 to 21.8 ± 0.3, identical within errors to the U/Pb ages. The combination of the 40Ar/39Ar and U/Pb datasets imply that the maximum amount of time PX1 took to cool below amphibole Tc is 0.8 Ma, suggesting PX1 lifetime of 520 000 to 800 000 years. On top of this, the coexistence of baddeleyite and zircon in a single sample is ascribed to the interaction of PX1 with C02-rich carbonatite-derived fluids released from the host-rock carbonatites during contact metamorphism 160 000 years after PX1 initiation. These ages are in agreement with the emplacement model, implying a crystallisation time of less than 1 to 5 years for individual dykes.

Patent foramen ovale in patients with ischaemic stroke of unknown cause: to close? "pro closure" position

There is ample epidemiological and anecdotal evidence that a PFO increases the risk of stroke both in young and elderly patients, although only in a modest way: PFOs are more prevalent in patients with cryptogenic (unexplained) stroke than in healthy subjects, and are more prevalent in cryptogenic stroke than in strokes of other causes. Furthermore, multiple case series confirm an association of paradoxical embolism across a PFO in patients with deep vein thrombosis and/or pulmonary emboli.2. Is stroke recurrence risk in PFO-patients really not elevated when compared to PFO-free patients, as suggested by traditional observational studies? This finding is an epidemiological artifact called "the paradox of recurrence risk research" (Dahabreh & Kent, JAMA 2011) and is due to one (minor) risk factor, such as PFO, being wiped out by other, stronger risk factors in the control population.3. Having identified PFO as a risk factor for a first stroke and probably also for recurrences, we have to treat it, because treating risk factors always has paid off. No one would nowadays question the aggressive treatment of other risk factors of stroke such as hypertension, atrial fibrillation, smoking, or hyperlipidemia.4. In order to be effective, the preventive treatment has to control the risk factor (i.e. close effectively the PFO), and has to have little or no side effects. Both these conditions are now fulfilled thanks to increasing expertise of cardiologists with technically advanced closure devices and solid back up by multidisciplinary stroke teams.5. Closing a PFO does not dispense us from treating other stroke risk factors aggressively, given that these are cumulative with PFO.6. The most frequent reason why patients have a stroke recurrence after PFO closure is not that closure is ineffective, but that the initial stroke etiology is insufficiently investigated and not PFO related, and that the recurrence is due to another mechanism because of poor risk factor control.7. Similarly, the randomized CLOSURE study was negative because a) patients were included who had a low chance that their initial event was due to the PFO, b) patients were selected with a low chance that a PFO-related recurrence would occur, c) there was an unacceptable high rate of closure-related side effects, and d) the number of randomized patients was too small for a prevention trial.8. It is only a question of time until a sufficiently large randomized clinical trial with true PFO-related stroke patients and a high PFO-related recurrence risk will be performed and show the effectiveness of this closure9. PFO being a rather modest risk factor for stroke does not mean we should prevent our patients from getting the best available prevention by the best physicians in the best stroke centers Therefore, a PFO-closure performed by an excellent cardiologist following the recommendation of an expert neurovascular specialist after a thorough workup in a leading stroke center is one of the most effective stroke prevention treatments available in 2011.

Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: neural networks vs. time series models

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.

Graphitized carbon black in quartz tubes for the sampling of indoor air nicotine and analysis by microwave thermal desorption-capillary gas chromatography

Nicotine in a smoky indoor air environment can be determined using graphitized carbon black as a solid sorbent in quartz tubes. The temperature stability, high purity, and heat absorption characteristics of the sorbent, as well as the permeability of the quartz tubes to microwaves, enable the thermal desorption by means of microwaves after active sampling. Permeation and dynamic dilution procedures for the generation of nicotine in the vapor phase at low and high concentrations are used to evaluate the performances of the sampler. Tube preparation is described and the microwave desorption temperature is measured. Breakthrough volume is determined to allow sampling at 0.1-1 L/min for definite periods of time. The procedure is tested for the determination of gas and paticulate phase nicotine in sidestream smoke produced in an experimental chamber.

Development of Order-Delivery Process in Purchasing

Diplomityön tavoitteena oli kehittää Fazer Suklaan oston tilaus-toimitusprosesseja, jotta raaka-aineet ja pakkausmateriaalit pystytään hoitamaan mahdollisimman tehokkaasti. Ensin selvitettiin kirjallisuuden avulla tilaus-toimitusprosessin päävaiheet ja niihin vaikuttavat tekijät. Empiirisessä osassa lähdettiin liikkeelle käymällä läpi Fazer Suklaan oston nykytilanne, joka tehtiin ostajille suunnatun aikaselvityksen, haastatteluiden ja nykyisten tilaus-toimitusprosessien kuvaamisen avulla. Tavoitetilanteen rakentaminen aloitettiin ostettavien materiaalien ja toimittajien luokittelemisella. Tämän perusteella nämä materiaalit voitiin jakaa kolmen eri tilaus toimitusprosessin alle. Automaattisessa tilaus-toimitusprosessissa eri vaiheet automatisoidaan yhdessäavain toimittajien kanssa. Puoliautomaattinen prosessi perustuu systeemiin, jossa toimittaja näkee internetin kautta Fazerin tuotantosuunnitelman ja tekee tämän perusteella materiaalien täydennykset. Yksinkertaisessa prosessissa ostoarvoltaan alhaiset materiaalit hoidetaan mahdollisimman lähellä käyttöpistettä ja prosessin vaiheet tehdään mandollisimman pienellä työmäärällä. Tavoiteprosessien implementoinnilla todettiin suurimmiksi eduiksi prosessivaiheiden vähentyminen ja manuaalisen työn automatisoituminen. Tätä kautta saatiin prosessin eri vaiheiden työmäärää vähennettyä, sekä alennettua varastotasoja ja näin tilaus toimitusprosessin kokonaiskustannuksia pystyttiin pienentämään.

Meta-analysis of the effects of MI training on clinicians' behavior.

MI-based interventions are widely used with a number of different clinical populations and their efficacy has been well established. However, the clinicians' training has not traditionally been the focus of empirical investigations. We conducted a meta-analytic review of clinicians' MI-training and MI-skills findings. Fifteen studies were included, involving 715 clinicians. Pre-post training effect sizes were calculated (13 studies) as well as group contrast effect sizes (7 studies). Pre-post training comparisons showed medium to large ES of MI training, which are maintained over a short period of time. When compared to a control group, our results also suggested higher MI proficiency in the professionals trained in MI than in nontrained ones (medium ES). However, this estimate of ES may be affected by a publication bias and therefore, should be considered with caution. Methodological limitations and potential sources of heterogeneity of the studies included in this meta-analysis are discussed.

Absorption and pharmacokinetics of green tea catechins in beagles

The present study evaluates for the first time in dogs, the kinetics of green tea catechins and their metabolic forms in plasma and urine. Ten beagles were administered 173 mg (12·35 mg/kg body weight) of catechins as a green tea extract, in capsules. Blood samples were collected during 24 h after intake and urine samples were collected during the following periods of time: 02, 26, 68 and 824 h. Two catechins with a galloyl moiety and three conjugated metabolites were detected in plasma. Most of the detected forms in plasma reached their maximum plasma concentration (Cmax) at around 1 h. Median Cmax for (2)-epigallocatechin-3-gallate (EGCG), (2)-epicatechin-3-gallate (ECG), (2)-epigallocatechin glucuronide (EGCglucuronide), (2)-epicatechin glucuronide (EC-glucuronide), (2)-epicatechin sulphate (EC sulphate) were 0·3 (range 0·11·9), 0·1 (range 00·4), 0·8 (range 0·23·9), 0·2 (range 0·1 1·7) and 1 (range 0·33·4) mmol/l, respectively. The areas under the plasma concentration v. time curves (AUC0!24) were 427 (range 1021185) mmol/l £ min for EGC-glucuronide, 112 (range 53919) mmol/l £ min for EC-sulphate, 71 (range 26306) mmol/l £ min for EGCG, 40 (range 12258) mmol/l £ min for EC-glucuronide and 14 (range 0·1124) mmol/l £ min for ECG. The values of mean residence time (MRT0!24) were 5 (range 216), 2 (range 111), 10 (range 213), 3 (range 216) and 2·4 (range 118) h for EGCG, ECG, EGC-glucuronide, EC-glucuronide and EC sulphate, respectively. In urine, catechins were present as conjugated forms, suggesting bile excretion of EGCG and ECG. Green tea catechins are absorbed following an oral administration and EGC-glucuronide is the metabolic form that remains in the organism for a longer period of time, suggesting that this compound could suffer an enterohepatic cycle.

Laboratory diagnosis of brucellosis in a rural endemic area in northeastern Spain

Sera obtained from 62 patients from four mountain counties in Catalonia (Northeastern Spain), in whom brucellosis had been diagnosed on the basis of clinical evidence and/or personal history, were analyzed using the rose Bengal test, standard serum agglutination test (SAT), Coombs" test, ELISA, and complement fixation. The diagnosis was further confirmed through blood cultures. Clinical evidence, epidemiology, and the results from serologic tests were used to assign patients to one of two groups: group 1 (n = 38) patients had primary infections, whereas group 2 (n = 24) patients had been previously exposed to the microorganism, i.e. re-infection of group 2 individuals occurred after long periods of time during which no active infection by Brucella had been detected. Receivingoperating charts (ROC) were used to determine the diagnostic value of the different tests and to establish discriminant values. Blood culture was a valuable diagnostic tool in group 1 (0.92 sensitivity) but was inappropriate in group 2 (0.08). The combination of positive rose Bengal test and agglutination ≥1/160 was valid for diagnosis in group 1. In group 2, agglutination < 1/160 (including negative agglutination) did not rule out brucellosis. The combination of positive rose Bengal test and Coombs" test ≥1/320 was the best diagnostic criterion (0.8 specificity; 1 sensitivity). ELISA (for IgG, IgM, or both) did not improve diagnostic accuracy

Study and modeling of the desintegration kinetics of coated paper

The disintegration of recovered paper is the first operation in the preparation of recycled pulp. It is known that the defibering process follows a first order kinetics from which it is possible to obtain the disintegration kinetic constant (KD) by means of different ways. The disintegration constant can be obtained from the Somerville index results (%lsv and from the dissipated energy per volume unit (Ss). The %slv is related to the quantity of non-defibrated paper, as a measure of the non-disintegrated fiber residual (percentage of flakes), which is expressed in disintegration time units. In this work, disintegration kinetics from recycled coated paper has been evaluated, working at 20 revise rotor speed and for different fiber consistency (6, 8, 10, 12 and 14%). The results showed that the values of experimental disintegration kinetic constant, Ko, through the analysis of Somerville index, as function of time. Increased, the disintegration time was drastically reduced. The calculation of the disintegration kinetic constant (modelled Ko), extracted from the Rayleigh’s dissipation function, showed a good correlation with the experimental values using the evolution of the Somerville index or with the dissipated energy

Unifying Time to Contact Estimation and Collision Avoidance across Species

The -function and the -function are phenomenological models that are widely used in the context of timing interceptive actions and collision avoidance, respectively. Both models were previously considered to be unrelated to each other: is a decreasing function that provides an estimation of time-to-contact (ttc) in the early phase of an object approach; in contrast, has a maximum before ttc. Furthermore, it is not clear how both functions could be implemented at the neuronal level in a biophysically plausible fashion. Here we propose a new framework the corrected modified Tau function capable of predicting both -type ("") and -type ("") responses. The outstanding property of our new framework is its resilience to noise. We show that can be derived from a firing rate equation, and, as , serves to describe the response curves of collision sensitive neurons. Furthermore, we show that predicts the psychophysical performance of subjects determining ttc. Our new framework is thus validated successfully against published and novel experimental data. Within the framework, links between -type and -type neurons are established. Therefore, it could possibly serve as a model for explaining the co-occurrence of such neurons in the brain.

Logistics Development in Finnish and Swedish Companies with Respect of Russia and Four Asian Countries: Traffic Flow and Warehousing Analysis from Current Situation and Likely Development Trends

On selvää, että tänä päivänä maailmankaupan painopiste on hiljalleen siirtymässä Aasiaan ja varsinkin Kiina on ollut huomion keskipisteessä. Erityisesti valmistavien yritysten perspektiivistä muutos on ollut merkittävä ja tämä tosiasia kasvattaa yrityksissä paineita luoda kustannustehokkaita toimitusketjuratkaisuja,joiden vasteaika on mahdollisimman lyhyt. Samaan aikaan kun tarkastellaan kuljetusvirtoja, huomattaan että maanosien välillä on suuri epätasapaino. Tämä on enimmäkseen seurausta suurten globaalisti toimivien yritysten toimitusketjustrategioista. Useimmat näistä toimijoista optimoivat verkostonsa turvautumalla 'paikalliseen hankintaan', jotta he voisivat paremmin hallita toimitusketjujaan ja saada näitä reagointiherkimmiksi. Valmistusyksiköillä onkin monesti Euroopassa pakko käyttää kalliita raaka-aineita ja puolivalmisteita. Kriittisiksi tekijöiksi osoittautuvat kuljetus- ja varastointikustannukset sekä näiden seurauksena hukka-aika, joka aiheutuu viivästyksistä. Voidakseen saavuttaa optimiratkaisun, on tehtävä päätös miten tuotteet varastoidaan: keskitetysti tai hajautetusti ja integroida tämä valinta sopivien kuljetusmuotojen kanssa. Aasiasta Pohjois-Eurooppaan on halpaa käyttää merikuljetusta, mutta operaatio kestää hyvin pitkään - joissain tapauksessa jopa kahdeksan viikkoa. Toisaalta lentokuljetus on sekä kallis että rajoittaa siirrettävien tuotteiden eräkokoa.On olemassa kolmaskin vaihtoehto, josta voisi olla ratkaisuksi: rautatiekuljetus on halvempi kuin lentokuljetus ja vasteajat ovat lyhyemmät kuin merikuljetuksissa. Tässä tutkimuksessa tilannetta selvitetään kyselyllä, joka suunnattiin Suomessa ja Ruotsissa toimiville yrityksille. Tuloksien perusteella teemme johtopäätökset siitä, mitkä kuljetusmuotojen markkinaosuudet tulevat olemaan tulevaisuudessa sekä luomme kuvan kuljetusvirroista Euroopan, Venäjän, Etelä-Korea, Intian, Kiinan ja Japanin välillä. Samalla on tarkoitus ennakoida sitä, miten tarkastelun kohteena olevat yritykset aikovat kehittää kuljetuksiaan ja varastointiaan tulevien vuosien aikana. Tulosten perusteella näyttää siltä, että seuraavan viiden vuoden kuluessa kuljetuskustannukset eivät merkittävissä määrin tule muuttuman ja meri- sekä kumipyöräkuljetukset pysyvät suosituimpina vaihtoehtoina.Kuitenkin lentokuljetusten osuus laskee hiukan, kun taas rautatiekuljetusten painotus kasvaa. Tulokset paljastavat, että Kiinassa ja Venäjällä kuljetettava konttimäärä kasvaa; Intiassa tulos on saman suuntainen, joskaan ei niin voimakas. Analyysimme mukaan kuljetusvirtoihin liittyvä epätasapaino säilyy Venäjän kuljetusten suhteen: yritykset jatkavat tulevaisuudessakin vientiperusteista strategiaansa. Varastoinnin puolella tunnistamme pienemmän muutoksen, jonka mukaan pienikokoisten varastojen määrät todennäköisesti vähenevät tulevaisuudessa ja kiinnostus isoja varastoja kohtaan lisääntyy. Tässä kohtaa on mainittava, että suomalaisilla yrityksillä on enemmän varastoja Keski- ja Itä-Euroopassa verrattuna ruotsalaisiin toimijoihin, jotka keskittyvät selkeämmin Länsi-Euroopan maihin. Varastoja yrityksillä on molemmissa tapaukissa paljolti kotimaassaan. Valitessaan varastojensa sijoituskohteita yritykset painottavat seuraavia kriteereitä: alhaiset jakelukustannukset, kokoamispaikan/valmistustehtaan läheisyys, saapuvan logistiikan integroitavuus ja saatavilla olevat logistiikkapalvelut. Tutkimuksemme lopussa päädymme siihen, että varastojen sijoituspaikat eivät muutu satamien rakenteen ja liikenneyhteyksien takia kovinkaan nopeasti.

Influence of the substrate in germination of lychee seeds

The lychee is, all over the world, considered as the "queen of the fruits" due to the delicacy of its appearance and flavor. Although it was only recently that it started to have economical importance in Brazil, the lychee is already calling the attention of numerous farmers, mainly those who cultivate citric fruits and/or sugarcane in the State of São Paulo, due to the constant and at the same time growing necessity of finding new alternative crops. Considering that the commercial cultivation of lychee plants in the field requires the previous obtainment of rootstocks viewing to reduce the genetic variability and the length of the juvenile period displayed by plants resulting directly from the seeds, finding ways to improve the germination performance of lychee seeds for the production of rootstock plants is of considerable economic importance. Thus, the objective of this experiment was to test five substrates for the germination of lychee seeds: (1) vermiculite, (2) washed sand, (3) filter paper, (4) carbonized rice hull, and (5) sphagnum. The results showed that the period of time required by a lychee seed to germinate is a short one thus reinforcing the importance of providing a suitable substrate for the germination to take place. It was found that the substrates which apparently allowed the best combinations of water and oxygen availability for the seeds - washed sand and carbonized rice hull - were those leading to the fastest and highest germination values.

Effect of temperature and moisture on the dormancy and activation pattern of Oxalis latifolia bulbs

Con objeto de buscar información para un mejor control de Oxalis latifolia Kunth, se ha estudiado el efecto que presentan la temperatura y la humedad sobre la activación de sus bulbos, tanto en la forma común como en la forma Cornwall de la misma. Los bulbos de la mala hierba se mantuvieron en un refrigerador a +4°C durante 13, 20, 27, 41, 48 y 55 días. Se sacaron tres grupos de 30 bulbos de cada forma en cada fecha de muestreo y se colocaron a 21°C; 15 de ellos se mantuvieron en condiciones de sequía —no se regaron— y otros 15 en condiciones de humedad —añadiendo el agua necesaria—. Los resultados muestran que la activación ocurre durante un período prolongado de tiempo en ambas formas, tanto en seco como en húmedo. También se observó que los bulbos secos se activaron antes que los húmedos y los de la forma común antes que los Cornwall. Se observaron dos patrones de activación: los bulbos secos de la forma común generalmente presentaron una activación que sigue un patrón logarítmico, mientras que sus bulbos humedecidos mostraron una tendencia linear; los bulbos Cornwall se activaron con una tendencia exponencial en la mayoría de los casos. El tiempo medio requerido para la activación después del almacenamiento en frío fue constante en la forma común, sin embargo la activación de Cornwall fue más rápida cuanto más tiempo permanecieron almacenados en frío.

Differences in phasic development rate amongst wheat cultivars independent of responses to photoperiod and vernalization. A viewpoint of the intrinsic earliness hypothesis

Differences amongst wheat cultivars in the rate of reproductive development are largely dependent on differences in their sensitivity to photoperiod and vernalization. However, when these responses are accounted for, by growing vernalized seedlings under long photoperiods, cultivars can still differ markedly in time to ear emergence. Control of rate of development by this ‘third factor’ has been poorly understood and is variously referred to as intrinsic earliness, earliness in the narrow sense, basic vegetative period, earliness per se, and basic development rate. Certain assumptions are made in the concept of intrinsic earliness. They are that differences in intrinsic earliness (i) are independent of the responses of the cultivars to photoperiod and vernalization, (ii) apply only to the length of the vegetative period up to floral initiation (as suggested by several authors), (iii) are maintained under different temperatures, measured either in days or degree days. As a consequence of this, the ranking of cultivars (from intrinsically early to intrinsically late) must be maintained at different temperatures. This paper, by the re-analysis of published data, examines the extent to which these assumptions can be supported. Although it is shown that intrinsic earliness operates independently of photoperiod and vernalization responses, the other assumptions were not supported. The differences amongst genotypes in time to ear emergence, grown under above-optimum vernalization and photoperiod (that is when the response to these factors is saturated), were not exclusively due to parallel differences in the length of the vegetative phase, and the length of the reproductive phase was independent of that of the vegetative phase. Thus, it would be possible to change the relative allocation of time to vegetative and reproductive periods with no change in the full period to ear emergence. The differences in intrinsic earliness between cultivars were modified by the temperature regime under which they were grown, i.e. the difference between cultivars (both considering the full phase to ear emergence or some sub-phases) was not a constant amount of time or thermal time at different temperatures. In addition, in some instances genotypes changed their ranking for ‘intrinsic earliness’ depending on the temperature regime. This was interpreted to mean that while all genotypes are sensitive to temperature they differ amongst themselves in the extent of that sensitivity. Therefore, ‘intrinsic earliness’ should not be considered as a static genotypic characteristic, but the result of the interaction between the genotype and temperature. Intrinsic earliness is therefore likely to be related to temperature sensitivity. Some implications of these conclusions for plant breeding and crop simulation modelling are discussed.