Distribution kinetics of solutes in the isolated in-situ perfused rat head using the multiple indicator dilution technique and a physiological two-barrier model

The purpose of this study was to determine the pharmacokinetics of [C-14]diclofenac, [C-14]salicylate and [H-3]clonidine using a single pass rat head perfusion preparation. The head was perfused with 3-[N-morpholino] propane-sulfonic acid-buffered Ringer's solution. Tc-99m-red blood cells and a drug were injected in a bolus into the internal carotid artery and collected from the posterior facial vein over 28 min. A two-barrier stochastic organ model was used to estimate the statistical moments of the solutes. Plasma, interstitial and cellular distribution volumes for the solutes ranged from 1.0 mL (diclofenac) to 1.6 mL (salicylate), 2.0 mL (diclofenac) to 4.2 mL (water) and 3.9 mL (salicylate) to 20.9 mL (diclofenac), respectively. A comparison of these volumes to water indicated some exclusion of the drugs from the interstitial space and salicylate from the cellular space. Permeability-surface area (PS) products calculated from plasma to interstitial fluid permeation clearances (CLPI) (range 0.02-0.40 mL s(-1)) and fractions of solute unbound in the perfusate were in the order: diclofenac>salicylate >clonidine>sucrose (from 41.8 to 0.10 mL s(-1)). The slow efflux of diclofenac, compared with clonidine and salicylate, may be related to its low average unbound fraction in the cells. This work accounts for the tail of disposition curves in describing pharmacokinetics in the head.

A note on quasi-stationary distributions of birth-death processes and the SIS logistic epidemic

For Markov processes on the positive integers with the origin as an absorbing state, Ferrari, Kesten, Martinez and Picco studied the existence of quasi-stationary and limiting conditional distributions by characterizing quasi-stationary distributions as fixed points of a transformation Phi on the space of probability distributions on {1, 2,.. }. In the case of a birth-death process, the components of Phi(nu) can be written down explicitly for any given distribution nu. Using this explicit representation, we will show that Phi preserves likelihood ratio ordering between distributions. A conjecture of Kryscio and Lefevre concerning the quasi-stationary distribution of the SIS logistic epidemic follows as a corollary.

Species richness in agamid lizards: chance, body size, sexual selection or ecology?

Why does species richness vary so greatly across lineages? Traditionally, variation in species richness has been attributed to deterministic processes, although it is equally plausible that it may result from purely stochastic processes. We show that, based on the best available phylogenetic hypothesis, the pattern of cladogenesis among agamid lizards is not consistent with a random model, with some lineages having more species, and others fewer species, than expected by chance. We then use phylogenetic comparative methods to test six types of deterministic explanation for variation in species richness: body size, life history, sexual selection, ecological generalism, range size and latitude. Of eight variables we tested, only sexual size dimorphism and sexual dichromatism predicted species richness. Increases in species richness are associated with increases in sexual dichromatism but reductions in sexual size dimorphism. Consistent with recent comparative studies, we find no evidence that species richness is associated with small body size or high fecundity. Equally, we find no evidence that species richness covaries with ecological generalism, latitude or range size.

A new method for analysing the equilibrium and time-dependent behaviour of Markovian models

Many large-scale stochastic systems, such as telecommunications networks, can be modelled using a continuous-time Markov chain. However, it is frequently the case that a satisfactory analysis of their time-dependent, or even equilibrium, behaviour is impossible. In this paper, we propose a new method of analyzing Markovian models, whereby the existing transition structure is replaced by a more amenable one. Using rates of transition given by the equilibrium expected rates of the corresponding transitions of the original chain, we are able to approximate its behaviour. We present two formulations of the idea of expected rates. The first provides a method for analysing time-dependent behaviour, while the second provides a highly accurate means of analysing equilibrium behaviour. We shall illustrate our approach with reference to a variety of models, giving particular attention to queueing and loss networks. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Product form approximations for highly linear loss networks with trunk reservation

Admission controls, such as trunk reservation, are often used in loss networks to optimise their performance. Since the numerical evaluation of performance measures is complex, much attention has been given to finding approximation methods. The Erlang Fixed-Point (EFP) approximation, which is based on an independent blocking assumption, has been used for networks both with and without controls. Several more elaborate approximation methods which account for dependencies in blocking behaviour have been developed for the uncontrolled setting. This paper is an exploratory investigation of extensions and synthesis of these methods to systems with controls, in particular, trunk reservation. In order to isolate the dependency factor, we restrict our attention to a highly linear network. We will compare the performance of the resulting approximations against the benchmark of the EFP approximation extended to the trunk reservation setting. By doing this, we seek to gain insight into the critical factors in constructing an effective approximation. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mean anisotropy of homogeneous Gaussian random fields and anisotropic norms of linear translation-invariant operators on multidimensional integer lattices

Sensitivity of output of a linear operator to its input can be quantified in various ways. In Control Theory, the input is usually interpreted as disturbance and the output is to be minimized in some sense. In stochastic worst-case design settings, the disturbance is considered random with imprecisely known probability distribution. The prior set of probability measures can be chosen so as to quantify how far the disturbance deviates from the white-noise hypothesis of Linear Quadratic Gaussian control. Such deviation can be measured by the minimal Kullback-Leibler informational divergence from the Gaussian distributions with zero mean and scalar covariance matrices. The resulting anisotropy functional is defined for finite power random vectors. Originally, anisotropy was introduced for directionally generic random vectors as the relative entropy of the normalized vector with respect to the uniform distribution on the unit sphere. The associated a-anisotropic norm of a matrix is then its maximum root mean square or average energy gain with respect to finite power or directionally generic inputs whose anisotropy is bounded above by a≥0. We give a systematic comparison of the anisotropy functionals and the associated norms. These are considered for unboundedly growing fragments of homogeneous Gaussian random fields on multidimensional integer lattice to yield mean anisotropy. Correspondingly, the anisotropic norms of finite matrices are extended to bounded linear translation invariant operators over such fields.

Critical comparison of Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre (JKMRC) blast fragmentation models

Blast fragmentation can have a significant impact on the profitability of a mine. An optimum run of mine (ROM) size distribution is required to maximise the performance of downstream processes. If this fragmentation size distribution can be modelled and controlled, the operation will have made a significant advancement towards improving its performance. Blast fragmentation modelling is an important step in Mine to Mill™ optimisation. It allows the estimation of blast fragmentation distributions for a number of different rock mass, blast geometry, and explosive parameters. These distributions can then be modelled in downstream mining and milling processes to determine the optimum blast design. When a blast hole is detonated rock breakage occurs in two different stress regions - compressive and tensile. In the-first region, compressive stress waves form a 'crushed zone' directly adjacent to the blast hole. The second region, termed the 'cracked zone', occurs outside the crush one. The widely used Kuz-Ram model does not recognise these two blast regions. In the Kuz-Ram model the mean fragment size from the blast is approximated and is then used to estimate the remaining size distribution. Experience has shown that this model predicts the coarse end reasonably accurately, but it can significantly underestimate the amount of fines generated. As part of the Australian Mineral Industries Research Association (AMIRA) P483A Mine to Mill™ project, the Two-Component Model (TCM) and Crush Zone Model (CZM), developed by the Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre (JKMRC), were compared and evaluated to measured ROM fragmentation distributions. An important criteria for this comparison was the variation of model results from measured ROM in the-fine to intermediate section (1-100 mm) of the fragmentation curve. This region of the distribution is important for Mine to Mill™ optimisation. The comparison of modelled and Split ROM fragmentation distributions has been conducted in harder ores (UCS greater than 80 MPa). Further work involves modelling softer ores. The comparisons will be continued with future site surveys to increase confidence in the comparison of the CZM and TCM to Split results. Stochastic fragmentation modelling will then be conducted to take into account variation of input parameters. A window of possible fragmentation distributions can be compared to those obtained by Split . Following this work, an improved fragmentation model will be developed in response to these findings.

The modeling of turbulent reactive flows based on multiple mapping conditioning

A new modeling approach-multiple mapping conditioning (MMC)-is introduced to treat mixing and reaction in turbulent flows. The model combines the advantages of the probability density function and the conditional moment closure methods and is based on a certain generalization of the mapping closure concept. An equivalent stochastic formulation of the MMC model is given. The validity of the closuring hypothesis of the model is demonstrated by a comparison with direct numerical simulation results for the three-stream mixing problem. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

The tree cut and merge algorithm for estimation of network reliability

This article presents Monte Carlo techniques for estimating network reliability. For highly reliable networks, techniques based on graph evolution models provide very good performance. However, they are known to have significant simulation cost. An existing hybrid scheme (based on partitioning the time space) is available to speed up the simulations; however, there are difficulties with optimizing the important parameter associated with this scheme. To overcome these difficulties, a new hybrid scheme (based on partitioning the edge set) is proposed in this article. The proposed scheme shows orders of magnitude improvement of performance over the existing techniques in certain classes of network. It also provides reliability bounds with little overhead.

A reduced load approximation accounting for link interactions in a loss network

This paper is concerned with evaluating the performance of loss networks. Accurate determination of loss network performance can assist in the design and dimen- sioning of telecommunications networks. However, exact determination can be difficult and generally cannot be done in reasonable time. For these reasons there is much interest in developing fast and accurate approximations. We develop a reduced load approximation that improves on the famous Erlang fixed point approximation (EFPA) in a variety of circumstances. We illustrate our results with reference to a range of networks for which the EFPA may be expected to perform badly.

Balanced scorecard (BSC): uma vis??o metodol??gica para o acompanhamento de sua implementa????o

A Embrapa, na inten????o de operacionalizar a gest??o dos seus planos estrat??gicos (Plano Diretor da Embrapa ??? PDE e Planos Diretores das Unidades ??? PDUs) desenvolveu a metodologia Mogest para a implementa????o do seu Modelo de Gest??o Estrat??gica (MGE), no ??mbito corporativo e de suas 40 unidades de neg??cio, com base na modifica????o do m??todo Balanced Scorecard ??? BSC, de Kaplan. Posteriormente, ap??s a implementa????o dos MGEs, no per??odo de 1999 at?? os dias atuais, inicia-se e desenvolve-se a fase de acompanhamento por meio da elabora????o do m??todo MGE/Acompanha. Este trabalho aborda, de forma modificada, o uso do diagrama elaborado por Norton, apud Coutinho (2002), para acompanhar/avaliar a implementa????o do BSC para uma organiza????o orientada ?? estrat??gia, inserido no m??todo MGE/Acompanha (2000), elaborado pela Equipe MGE e aplicado em uma das unidades de neg??cio da Embrapa. Os resultados mostraram a efici??ncia do m??todo e proporcionaram a internaliza????o do conceito ???painel de bordo???, desenvolvido no software Oracle BSC (OBSC).

Monitoramento do plano de desenvolvimento da educa????o: proposta de aprimoramento do Ideb e de painel de indicadores

Nas ??ltimas duas d??cadas, tem-se observado um processo cada vez mais intenso de proposi????o de indicadores de monitoramento e avalia????o da a????o governamental, assim como de indicadores sociais gerais, dentro e fora das organiza????es p??blicas. No campo das pol??ticas educacionais, especificamente, sob os ausp??cios do Plano de Desenvolvimento da Educa????o (PDE), prop??s-se mais uma dessas medidas, o ??ndice de Desenvolvimento da Educa????o B??sica (Ideb). O objetivo deste trabalho ?? analisar seus usos, caracter??sticas e limita????es, al??m de propor medidas alternativas e complementares para acompanhar os resultados e impactos do PDE. O texto est?? organizado em cinco se????es. Na primeira se????o discute-se o papel e o uso dos indicadores no ciclo de pol??ticas p??blicas, em especial no monitoramento e avalia????o de programas. A se????o seguinte tem car??ter mais metodol??gico, tratando da constru????o de indicadores sint??ticos, seus usos e limita????es. Apresenta-se, ent??o, o Ideb e se discute suas caracter??sticas, potencialidades e restri????es para acompanhamento da agenda da pol??tica educacional. As duas ??ltimas se????es s??o dedicadas ?? apresenta????o de uma proposta de indicador alternativo ??? o Ideb+ e o Painel PIdeb+ ??? para monitoramento do PDE.

Simbolismos e motivação no trabalho voluntário:um estudo de caso na Associação de voluntários da APAE de Venda Nova do Imigrante

O objetivo dessa pesquisa é: Compreender os aspectos simbólicas que se relacionam com a motivação no trabalho voluntário na Associação de Voluntários da APAE de Venda Nova do Imigrante - AVAPAE. Para isso, os investigadores apoiam-se na relevância de se estudar as organizações através de abordagens que envolvem a problemática do estudo do simbolismo com intuito de entender as organizações por caminhos diferentes ás teorias organizacionais dominantes, como o funcionalismo. O simbolismo organizacional (MORGAN; FROST; PONDY, 1983; GIOIA, 1986; CARRIERI, 2007) é compreendido como uma teoria organizacional, e o paradigma interpretativo (MORGAN; FROST; PONDY,1983) está posicionado como uma importante abordagem na busca por entender tantos os aspectos formais como os aspectos informais de uma organização. A Teoria das Representações Sociais (MOSCOVICI, 2003) foi adotada como base para investigar essas interpretações em uma organização, com o intuito de alçar uma análise mais aprofundada da vida cotidiana e dos aspectos simbólicos que constroem esse cotidiano, a partir da aplicação da análise de conteúdo (BARDIN, 1977). O entendimento do que motiva o voluntário a exercer sua atividade foi ancorado na construção social dessa realidade (BERGER; LUCKMANN, 1985) estudada, que se baseia na representação do fenômeno motivação do trabalho pela abordagem da subjetividade (REY, 2003) do indivíduo em relação ao seu ambiente de trabalho. A pesquisa pôde chegar a resultados através de uma análise interpretativa simbólica, em um entendimento de que a realidade da AVAPAE se mostrou complexa e subjetiva, levando à identificação de uma relevante influência da construção simbólica da cidade em que a AVAPAE atua, Venda Nova do Imigrante. Assim, a partir desse diagnóstico se evidenciou a interferência dos valores do cidadão vendanovense enquanto produto e produtor dos simbolismos que envolvem o voluntariado. Como contribuição final deste trabalho, defende-se que os caminhos para tratar dessas questões devem considerar a subjetividade que as permeia como um sistema aberto, em uma expressão constante da ação do indivíduo e do contexto social em que ele vive, sendo essa relação uma troca contínua por meio das relações simbólicas vivenciadas pelo ator social e o grupo em que convive.