开发早期油藏动态地质模型与油藏工程优化研究——以埕岛油田馆上段油藏为例

In order to developing reservoir of Upper of Ng at high-speed and high-efficient in Chengdao oilfield which is located in the bally shallow sea, the paper builds up a series of theory and means predicting and descripting reservoir in earlier period of oilfield development. There are some conclusions as follows. 1. It is the first time to form a series of technique of fine geological modeling of the channel-sandy reservoir by means of mainly seismic methods. These technique include the logging restriction seismic inversion, the whole three dimension seismic interpretation, seismic properties analysis and so on which are used to the 3-dimension distributing prediction of sandy body, structure and properties of the channel reservoir by a lot of the seismic information and a small quantity of the drilling and the logging information in the earlier stage of the oil-field development. It is the first time that these methods applied to production and the high-speed development of the shallow sea oilfield. The prediction sandy body was modified by the data of new drilling, the new reservoir prediction thinking of traced inversion is built. The applied effect of the technique was very well, according to approximately 200 wells belonging to 30 well groups in Chengdao oilfield, the drilling succeeded rate of the predicting sandy body reached 100%, the error total thickness only was 8%. 2. The author advanced the thinking and methods of the forecasting residual-oil prediction at the earlier stage of production. Based on well data and seismic data, correlation of sediment units was correlated by cycle-correlation and classification control methods, and the normalization and finely interpretation of the well logging and sedimentation micro-facies were acquired. On the region of poor well, using the logging restriction inversion technique and regarding finished drilling production well as the new restriction condition, the sand body distributing and its property were predicted again and derived 3-dimension pool geologic model including structure, reservoir, fluid, reservoir engineering parameter and producing dynamic etc. According to the reservoir geologic model, the reservoir engineering design was optimized, the tracking simulation of the reservoir numerical simulation was done by means of the dynamic data (pressure, yield and water content) of development well, the production rule and oil-water distributing rule was traced, the distributing of the remaining oil was predicted and controlled. The dynamic reservoir modeling method in metaphase of development was taken out. Based on the new drilling data, the static reservoir geologic model was momentarily modified, the research of the flow units was brought up including identifying flow units, evaluating flow units capability and establishing the fine flow units model; according to the dynamic data of production and well testing data, the dynamic tracing reservoir description was realized through the constant modification of the reservoir geologic model restricted these dynamic data by the theory of well testing and the reservoir numerical simulation. It was built the dynamic tracing reservoir model, which was used to track survey of the remaining oil on earlier period. The reservoir engineering tracking analysis technique on shallow sea oilfield was founded. After renewing the structure history since tertiary in Chengdao area by the balance section technique and estimating the activity character of the Chengbei fault by the sealing fault analysis technique, the meandering stream sediment pattern of the Upper of Ng was founded in which the meandering border was the uppermost reservoir unit. Based on the specialty of the lower rock component maturity and the structure maturity, the author founded 3 kinds of pore structure pattern in the Guanshang member of Chengdao oil-field in which the storing space mainly was primary (genetic) inter-granular pore, little was secondary solution pore and the inter-crystal pore tiny pore, and the type of throat mainly distributed as the slice shape and the contract neck shape. The positive rhythmic was briefly type included the simple positive rhythm, the complex positive rhythm and the compound rhythm. Interbed mainly is mudstone widely, the physical properties and the calcite interbed distribute localized. 5. The author synthetically analyzed the influence action of the micro-heterogeneity, the macro-heterogeneity and the structure heterogeneity to the oilfield water flood development. The efficiency of water flood is well in tiny structure of convex type or even type at top and bottom in which the water breakthrough of oil well is soon at the high part of structure when inject at the low part of structure, and the efficiency of water flood is poor in tiny structure of concave type at top and bottom. The remaining oil was controlled by sedimentary facies; the water flooding efficiency is well in the border or channel bar and is bad in the floodplain or the levee. The separation and inter layer have a little influence to the non-obvious positive rhythm reservoir, in which the remaining oil commonly locate within the 1-3 meter of the lower part of the separation and inter layer with lower water flooding efficiency.

复杂断块油藏形成机制及剩余油预测

The central uplift in the Huimin depression is famous for its large amounts of faults and small-scale fault-block area, and it is the famed typical complicated fault-block group oil & gas field in the whole world. After many years of rolling exploration and exploitation, many complex oil &gas field have been discovered in the central uplift, and won the splendent fruit. With the gradual deepening and development of the rolling exploitation, the exploration faces more and more difficulties. Therefore, it is important to reveal the forming mechanism and distributing rule of the complex fault-block reservoir, and to realize the forecast of the complex fault-block reservoir, sequentially, expedite the exploration step. This article applies the new multi-subject theory, method and technique such as structure geometry, kinematics, dynamics, structural stress field, fluid potential field, well logging record and constrained inversion of seismic records, coherence analysis, the seal mold and seal history of oil-bounded fault etc, and try to reveal the forming mechanism and distributing law of the complex fault-block reservoir, in result, implements the forecast of the fault-block reservoir and the remaining oil distributing. In order to do so, this article synthetically carries out structural estimate, reservoir estimate, fault sealing history estimate, oil-bearing properties estimate and residual. This article also synthetically researches, describes and forecast the complex fault-block in Huimin depression by use of the techniques, e.g. seismetic data post-stack processing technique, multi-component demarcating technique, elaborate description technique for the fault-block structure, technique of layer forecasting, fault sealing analysis technique, comprehensive estimate technique of fault-block, comprehensive analysis and estimate technique of remaining oil etc. The activities of the faults varies dramatically in the Huimin depression, and most of the second-class and the third-class faults are contemporaneous faults, which control the macroscopical distribution of the reservoir in the Huimin depression. The fourth-class faults cause the complication between the oil & gas among the fault-blocks. The multi-period strong activities of the Linyi fracture resulted in the vertical migration of large amount of oil & gas along with the faults. This is the main reason for the long vertical distribution properties near the Linyi fracture in the Huimin depression. The sealing ability of the fault is controlled by the property,size and direction of the main stress, the contact relationship of the both sides of the fault, the shale polluting factor, and the configuration relationship between the fault move period and the migration period of oil & gas. The article suggest four fault-sealing modes in the research zone for the first time, which establishes the foundation for the further forecast of the complex fault-block reservoir. Numerical simulation of the structural stress field reveals the distribution law and the evolvement progress of the three-period stress field from the end of the Dongying period to the Guantao period to nowadays. This article puts forward that the Linyi and Shanghe regions are the low value of the maximum main stress data. This is combined with the fault sealing history estimate, then multi-forming-reservoir in the central uplift is put forward. In the Shanghe oilfield, the article establishes six reservoir geological modes and three remaining oil distributing modes(the plane, the inside layer and the interlayer), then puts forward six increase production measure to enhance the remaining oil recovery ratio. Inducting the exploitation of oilfield, it wins notable economic effects and social effects.

砂砾岩储层流动单元四维模型研究

This article is an important part of "95" technological subject of SINOPEC. It has a large number of difficulties and workloads, and has significant theoretical meanings and practical value. The study area is composed of sandstone & conglomerate reservoir of alluvial fan & fan delta, which belong to Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member of lower tertiary of Yong'an Town Oilfield in Dongying Depression. The target stataum develops in the hanging wall of the synsedimentary fault in the scarp zone of Dongying Depression. The frequently intense movements result in the variation of sandstone and conglomerate reservoir and the evolution of the time and space of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member in Yong'an Town Oilfield. As a result, it is difficult for the individual reservoir correlation at the root of fan, which bring about a tackle problem for the exploitation of oilfield. In this background, the research of fluid units will be more difficult. In this article, the new concepts, the new methods, and the new techniques of sedimentology, petroleum geology, reservoir geology, physics of crystal surface, dynamic & static state reservoir description and well logging geology are synthetically applied, and the computer technology are made full uses of, and the identifying, dividing and appraising of the two-formation-type sandstone & conglomerate reservoir fluid units of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member systemically analyzed in Yong'an Town Oilfield, Dongying Depression. For the first time, the single-well model, the section model, the plane model, the nuclear magnetism log model, the microcosmic network model, the 4-D geology model and the simulation model of the two-formation-type reservoir fluid units of the of sandstone & conglomerate reservoir of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member are established, and the formative mechanism and distributing & enrichment laws of oil-gas of the two type of sandstone and conglomerate reservoir fluid units are revealed. This article established the optimizing, identifying, classifying and appraising standard of the two-formation-type reservoir fluid units of the of sandstone and conglomerate reservoir of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member, which settles the substantial foundations for static state model of the fluid units, reveals the macroscopic & microcosmic various laws of geometrical static state of the fluid units, and instructs the oil exploitation. This article established static state model of the two-formation-type sandstone and conglomerate reservoir fluid units by using the multi-subject theories, information and techniques, and reveals the geometrical configuration, special distribution and the oil-gas enrichment laws of the sandstone and conglomerate reservoir fluid units. For the first time, we established the nuclear magnetism log model of the two-formation-type sandstone and conglomerate reservoir of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member, which reveals not only the character and distributing laws of the porosity and permeability, bat also the formation and distribution of the movable fluid. It established six type of microcosmic net model of the two-formation-type sandstone and conglomerate reservoir of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member in the working area by using the advanced theories, such as rock thin section, SEM, image analysis, intrusive mercury, mold, rock C.T. measure & test image etc., which reveals the microcosmic characteristic of porosity & throat, filterate mode and microcosmic oil-gas enrichment laws of the sandstone and conglomerate reservoir. For the first time, it sets up the 4-D model and mathematic model of the sandstone and conglomerate reservoir, which reveals the distributing and evolving laws of macroscopic & microcosmic parameters of the two-formation-type sandstone and conglomerate reservoir and oil-gas in 4-D space. At the same time, it also forecasts the oil-gas distribution and instructs the oilfield exploitation. It established reservoir simulation model, which reveals the filterate character and distributing laws of oil-gas in different porosity & throat net models. This article established the assistant theories and techniques for researching, describing, indicating and forecasting the sandstone and conglomerate reservoir fluid units, and develops the theories and techniques of the land faces faulted basin exploitation geology. In instructing oilfield exploitation, it had won the notable economic & social benefits.

K/E之交环境地球化学元素的演化与全球变化及恐龙绝灭的关系-以黑龙江中下游地区和俄罗斯远东地区为例

In this paper, We analyzed the geological and geographical settings of dinosaurs extinction at the end of Cretaceous, especially the effect of the change of the elements contents on dinosaurs extinction. We studied basis on the two typical sections-Cretaceous-Paleocene boundary (Baishantou section (in Jiayin, Heilongjiang province of China) and Arkhara-Boguchan Coal Mine section (in Far East of Russian)) and Longgushan section (in Jiayin, Heilongjiang province of China) mainly. This work provided some evidences for forecasting the effects of global environmental change on bio-circle. The followings are the primary gains: According to the paleo-climate indexes (CaO/MgO,Sr/Ba) and the results of Factor Analysis, we found that there were similar climate in Baishantou section and Arkhara-Boguchan Coal Mine section near the K/E boundary, and both of them took on the trend of temperature declining and precipitation heightening after transitory high-temperature and drought. There are similar change and evlution rule of the elements contents near the boundary in the both sections (Baishantou section and Arkhara-Boguchan Coal Mine section). Both iron group elements and chalcophile elements appeared obvious abnormity. There are not visible correlation between the change of elements contents and climate indexes. This shows that the elements abnormity maybe came from the factors excluding climate or the factors were too many to conceal the influence of climate. --The result of cluster analysis showed that the boundary between BST3-8 and BST3-9 may be the K/E boundary of Baishantou section, and the top of twofold coal were the K/E boundary of Arkhara-Boguchan Coal Mine section which was consistent with accepted conclusion formerly. By contrast of elements contents in dinosaur bones and general organism, in surrounding rock and general sand stone, the regulation of the change of elements contents in dinosaur bones and surrounding rock, we confirmed that dinosaur extinction in Jiayin were relative with the high abnormities of Sr, Ba, Pb, Cr and the low abnormity of Zn, at least, it was them which speeded up dinosaurs extinction. After a series of analysis, we concluded that dinosaurs extinction of this areas tied up with the relative high background values of geo-chemical elements , paleo-climate and disaster incidents. First of all, high background values provided the necessary condition for the accumulation of the elements. Secondly, the drought climate adverse to the survival of dinosaurs, and led them to extinct gradually. finally, disaster incidents, the eruption of volcano or the collision of aerolites, made them exit this planet.

基于GIS的高速公路养护管理信息系统的设计与开发

China is experiencing a rapid development of highway ever since 1990s. By the end of 2004, the total length of the highway summed up to 33 thousand kilometers, ranking 2n in the world. After the open of highway, the accumulation of time and traffic causes the decrease of its capability. To ensure its good quality, security and operation functions, we should take some reasonable measures to maintain it periodically. At present, a big problem is that the traditional maintain measures can no longer meet the increasing requirements. Due to the characters of highway, the relationship of various maintenance data and geographic positions is even closer than any others. If we wan to improve the quality and efficiency of the maintenance work, particularly when there is need for decision-making, a great number of data that is related to geographic positions are absolutely necessary. Evidently, Geographical Information System (GIS) has incomparably advantages in dealing with these spatial information. As a result, a management system for highway maintenance work based on GIS became inevitable for the development of the maintenance of highway. The purpose of this paper is to establish a management system for highway maintenance work base on Geographical Information System (GIS), Global Positioning System (GPS) and spatial database, to manage all kinds of problems encountered in the work, and to provide support on information and methods. My study mainly includes: (1) Analysis on the current status of the maintenance and management work; overview on the history of domestic and international highway maintenance management systems; identifying the necessity and importance for establishing a management system for highway maintenance work based on GIS. (2) Based on the requirement analysis, I proposed a general design for this management system, and discussed the objective, design principles, framework, systematical structure and function design. (3) Outdoor data collection is not only a prime way to understand the current situation of the road, but also an important method for data update after the system is put into use. This paper also intends to establish a set of plan to collect data efficiently and precisely which is based on GIS and GPS technologies. (4) The maintenance management database is a supporting platform for various maintenance decision-makings. Such decisions need the support of a great amount of data, which would cause other problems, such as the diversity of the data source, difference of data formats. This paper also discussed how to deal with these problems and establish such a database. (5) To propose an approach to assess the condition of pavement, based on GIS and related maintenance models. Among all the maintenance models, the two for assessing and forecasting pavement condition are the most important and mature. This paper also analyzed these two models and introduced them in terms of the integration of models. (6) This paper took the Guangshen Highway for example, explaining how to realize a GIS for management of highway maintenance work.

人－组织匹配等因素对员工的满意度、组织承诺的影响

P-J Fit and P-O Fit are focus problems in the investigation field of industry and organization psychology. They have distinct influences on staff job performance and job attitude. In a certain extend,these influences are moderated by some variables. LMX(Leader-member Exchange) and TMX(Team-member exchange) are two most important personal relationship types in job scene. Post investigations indicated that they are equal to forecasting variables and moderating variables of staff job performance and job attitude. From actualities, although there are many investigations about the relationships between P-J Fit, P-O Fit, LMX, TMX and job attitude, these investigations only focused on some aspects, and they discussed little about four aspects at one time and mutual influences. Using hierarchical regression analysis to analyze the survey data collected from 592 employees in a big governmental telecom company, we got some results as follows: (1)After controlling demography variables, standardized regression coefficients on P-J Fit, P-O Fit, LMX, TMX and job satisfaction, organization commitment are all positive, and reach distinct levels. (2) LMX could distinctly moderate the influences of P-J Fit, P-O Fit on job satisfaction, but couldn’t distinctly moderate the influences of the two on organization commitment. Specifically, as LMX increased,the effect of P-J on job satisfaction decreased gradually,while the effect of P-O increased. (3) TMX could not distinctly moderate the relationships between P-J Fit, P-O Fit, job satisfaction and organization commitment. The theoretical implication of this investigation lies in enriching and developing investigations in these fields in a certain extend, through conforming the influences of P-J Fit, P-O Fit, LMX, and TMX on job satisfaction and organization commitment. The practical implication lies in revealing these aspects for corporation governors: When selecting applications for a job, they should try their best to realize the best fit of personal ability and the job requirements, personal value and organization culture. They should enhance staff job satisfaction and organization commitment through furthering the relationship between the leader and members, team members each other. They should cushion disadvantage influences of non-P-J Fit on staff job satisfaction and enhance positive influences of P-O Fit. 【Key words】 person-job fit; person-organization fit; leader-member exchange; team member exchange; job attitude

从赌博游戏中的损失厌恶行为看情感预测与体验在决策中的作用

In Kermer, Driver-Linn, Wilson and Gilbert’s (2006) study on affective forecast, they found that people have a tendency to overestimate affective reactions in gains and losses, and people expect losses to have greater hedonic impact than gains of equal magnitude. Because of thus affective forecasting error, people prefer to irrationally avoid losses. Loss aversion is then seen as both a wealth-maximizing error and an affect-maximizing error. The present study examined the relationships among affective forecast, affective experience and loss aversion, and tested Kermer et al.’s (2006) conclusion that people’s loss aversion is an affective forecasting error. In experiment 1, we examined the relationship between affective forecast and loss aversion. Kermer et al.’s (2006) hypothesized that when people expect losses to have greater hedonic impact than gains, they will accept the gambling task, and when people expect gains to have greater hedonic impact than losses, they will refuse the gambling task. We found that (1) individuals with lower loss aversion had a greater tendency to accept a gambling task than those with higher loss aversion; (2) individuals with lower loss aversion expected losses and gains to have smaller affective impacts than those with higher loss aversion. Thus, people never exactly calculated their forecasting affective. In experiment 2, we examined the relationship between affective forecast and affective experience. Consistent with Kermer et al.’s (2006) finding, we found that our participants tended to overestimate affective reactions in gains as well as losses. More interestingly, Kermer et al.’s (2006) found that participants’ predictions for a loss were significantly more distant from experienced emotions than were their predictions for a win, we, however, found the opposite —participants’ predictions for a win were significantly more distant from the experienced emotions than were their predictions for a loss. These experiments further validated the relations between affection and decision making, and contributed to our understanding on the affective reactions to future events. Our study imply that it was not the exact calculation of affective forecast on decision outcomes, but rather the magnitude of affection on outcomes, that influenced people’s affective decision making. It indicated that those with lower magnitude of affection would less like to avoid losses, and thus more like to accept a gambling task.

社会形势预警的几种建模方法比较

Based on social survey data conducted by local research group in some counties executed in the nearly past five years in China, the author proposed and solved two kernel problems in the field of social situation forecasting: i) How can the attitudes’ data on individual level be integrated with social situation data on macrolevel; ii) How can the powers of forecasting models’ constructed by different statistic methods be compared? Five integrative statistics were applied to the research: 1) algorithm average (MEAN); 2) standard deviation (SD); 3) coefficient variability (CV); 4) mixed secondary moment (M2); 5) Tendency (TD). To solve the former problem, the five statistics were taken to synthesize the individual and mocrolevel data of social situations on the levels of counties’ regions, and form novel integrative datasets, from the basis of which, the latter problem was accomplished by the author: modeling methods such as Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA), Discriminant Analysis (DA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were used to construct several forecasting models. Meanwhile, on the dimensions of stepwise vs. enter, short-term vs. long-term forecasting and different integrative (statistic) models, meta-analysis and power analysis were taken to compare the predicting power of each model within and among modeling methods. Finally, it can be concluded from the research of the dissertation: 1) Exactly significant difference exists among different integrative (statistic) models, in which, tendency (TD) integrative models have the highest power, but coefficient variability (CV) ones have the lowest; 2) There is no significant difference of the power between stepwise and enter models as well as short-term and long-term forecasting models; 3) There is significant difference among models constructed by different methods, of which, support vector machine (SVM) has the highest statistic power. This research founded basis in all facets for exploring the optimal forecasting models of social situation’s more deeply, further more, it is the first time methods of meta-analysis and power analysis were immersed into the assessments of such forecasting models.

不确定性类型对概率表达和概率判断的影响

The present research firstly reviewed the experimental literature on probability expression and probability judgment, hypothesizing that individuals’ preference of probability expressions (verbal probability vs. numerical probability) and tendency for overextremity in probability judgment might differ with respect to different types of uncertainty. Five studies were conducted to test this hypothesis. In Study 1, questionnaires were used to explore the communication preference among Chinese-speaking people. Study 2 adapted the View of Uncertainty Questionnaire to explore the difference of verbal answers to three kinds of uncertainty. Study 3 and Study 4 used methods of the paper-and-pencil questionnaire and the laboratory experiment, respectively, to test the effects of uncertainty types on the preference of probability expressions and on the tendency for over-extreme probability judgment. Finally, Study 5 focused on individuals’ preference of probability expressions under various kinds of scenarios. The results were as follows: 1. The Communication Model Preference paradox phenomenon appears to be even more pronounced in the Chinese culture than in American English cultural settings. 2. The Chinese prefer more verbal probability expressions when communicating uncertainty in a weather-forecasting context than in a general context. 3. Sample groups with lower level of westernization tend to give more extreme answers and less probabilistic answers. 4. Types of uncertainty did have effects on individuals’ tendency for over-extreme probability judgment: under a traditional probability judgment task, people tend to be more over-extreme on internal uncertainty events than on external uncertainty events; however, this result is reversed under a gambling task. 5. Individuals’ preference for verbal probability expressions is more salient on internal uncertain events than on external uncertain events.

Process control in agile supply chain network.

The work comprises a new theoretical development applied to aid decision making in an increasingly important commercial sector. Agile supply, where small volumes of high margin, short life cycle innovative products are offered, is increasingly carried out through a complex global supply chain network. We outline an equilibrium solution in such a supply chain network, which works through limited cooperation and coordination along edges (links) in the network. The links constitute the stochastic modelling entities rather than the nodes of the network. We utilise newly developed phase plane analysis to identify, model and predict characteristic behaviour in supply chain networks. The phase plane charts profile the flow of inventory and identify out of control conditions. They maintain quality within the network, as well as intelligently track the way the network evolves in conditions of changing variability. The methodology is essentially distribution free, relying as it does on the study of forecasting errors, and can be used to examine contractual details as well as strategic and game theoretical concepts between decision-making components (agents) of a network. We illustrate with typical data drawn from supply chain agile fashion products.

Collaboration on procurement of e-content between the National Health Service and higher education in the UK

Urquhart, C. J., Cox, A. M.& Spink, S. (2007). Collaboration on procurement of e-content between the National Health Service and higher education in the UK. Interlending & Document Supply, 35(3), 164-170. Sponsorship: JISC, LKDN

Client-ship and Citizenship in Latin America

Taylor, L. (2004). Client-ship and Citizenship in Latin America. Bulletin of Latin American Research. 23(2), pp.213-227. RAE2008

An econometric analysis of international air travel demand in Saudi Arabia

Abed, S. Y., Ba-Fail, A. O., & Jasimuddin, S. (2001). An econometric analysis of international air travel demand in Saudi Arabia. Journal of Air Transport Management, 7(3), 143-148 RAE2008

„Livre des merveilles”. Burgundzka wizja Orientu późnego średniowiecza w miniaturach manuskryptu fr. 2810 z Bibliothèque nationale de France

Wydział Historyczny: Instytut Historii Sztuki

Wykorzystanie gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych w naukach społecznych. Wybrane problemy

Treścią publikacji jest przedstawienie wybranych problemów prognozowania w naukach społecznych. W artykule skoncentrowano się na metodzie gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych, które – zwłaszcza wraz z rozwojem teorii gier oraz komputerów – są coraz częściej wykorzystywane w wielu dziedzinach. Na wybranych przykładach gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych – Poznań International Model United Nations 2013/POZiMUN; S.E.N.S.E. a także gry sieciowej EVE Online – wskazano jak ważne są takie ćwiczenia, by móc precyzyjniej przewidywać przyszłość. Zwrócono także szczególną uwagę na kwestię przypadku oraz czynników zakłócających, które mogą destabilizować proces przewidywania. Poruszono ponadto problem podejmowania decyzji w aspekcie klasycznej oraz kwantowej logiki.