Perinatal mortality and maternal health in rural China

Background and context Since the economic reforms of 1978, China has been acclaimed as a remarkable economy, achieving 9% annual growth per head for more than 25 years. However, China's health sector has not fared well. The population health gains slowed down and health disparities increased. In the field of health and health care, significant progress in maternal care has been achieved. However, there still remain important disparities between the urban and rural areas and among the rural areas in terms of economic development. The excess female infant deaths and the rapidly increasing sex ratio at birth in the last decade aroused serious concerns among policy makers and scholars. Decentralization of the government administration and health sector reform impacts maternal care. Many studies using census data have been conducted to explore the determinants of a high sex ratio at birth, but no agreement has been so far reached on the possible contributing factors. No study using family planning system data has been conducted to explore perinatal mortality and sex ratio at birth and only few studies have examined the impact of the decentralization of government and health sector reforms on the provision and organization of maternal care in rural China. Objectives The general objective of this study was to investigate the state of perinatal health and maternal care and their determinants in rural China under the historic context of major socioeconomic reforms and the one child family planning policy. The specific objectives of the study included: 1) to study pregnancy outcomes and perinatal health and their correlates in a rural Chinese county; 2) to examine the issue of sex ratio at birth and its determinants in a rural Chinese county; 3) to explore the patterns of provision, utilization, and content of maternal care in a rural Chinese county; 4) to investigate the changes in the use of maternal care in China from 1991 to 2003. Materials and Methods This study is based on a project for evaluating the prenatal care programme in Dingyuan county in 1999-2003, Anhui province, China and a nationwide household health survey to describe the changes in maternal care utilization. The approaches used included a retrospective cohort study, cross sectional interview surveys, informant interviews, observations and the use of statistical data. The data sources included the following: 1) A cohort of pregnant women followed from pregnancy up to 7 days after birth in 20 townships in the study county, collecting information on pregnancy outcomes using family planning records; 2) A questionnaire interview survey given to women who gave birth between 2001 and 2003; 3) Various statistical and informant surveys data collected from the study county; 4) Three national household health interview survey data sets (1993-2003) were utilized, and reanalyzed to described the changes in maternity care utilization. Relative risks (RR) and their confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for comparison between parity, approval status, infant sex and township groups. The chi-square test was used to analyse the disparity of use of maternal care between and within urban and rural areas and its trend across the years in China. Logistic regression was used to analyse the factors associated with hospital delivery in rural areas. Results There were 3697 pregnancies in the study cohort, resulting in 3092 live births in a total population of 299463 in the 20 study townships during 1999-2000. The average age at pregnancy in the cohort was 25.9 years. Of the women, 61% were childless, 38% already had one child and 0.3% had two children before the current pregnancy. About 90% of approved pregnancies ended in a live birth while 73% of the unapproved ones were aborted. The perinatal mortality rate was 69 per thousand births. If the 30 induced abortions in which the gestational age was more than 28 weeks had been counted as perinatal deaths, the perinatal mortality rate would have been as high as 78 per thousand. The perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the wealth of the township. Approximately two thirds of the perinatal deaths occurred in the early neonatal period. Both the still birth rate and the early neonatal death rate increased with parity. The risk of a stillbirth in a second pregnancy was almost four times that for a first pregnancy, while the risk of early neonatal deaths doubled. The early neonatal mortality rate was twice as high for female as for male infants. The sex difference in the early neonatal mortality rate was mainly attributable to mortality in second births. The male early neonatal mortality rate was not affected by parity, while the female early neonatal mortality rate increased dramatically with parity: it was about six times higher for second births than for first births. About 82% early neonatal deaths happened within 24 hours after birth, and during that time, girls were almost three times more likely to die than boys. The death rate of females on the day of birth increased much more sharply with parity than that of males. The total sex ratio at birth of 3697 registered pregnancies was 152 males to 100 females, with 118 and 287 in first and second pregnancies, respectively. Among unapproved pregnancies, there were almost 5 live-born boys for each girl. Most prenatal and delivery care was to be taken care of in township hospitals. At the village level, there were small private clinics. There was no limitation period for the provision of prenatal and postnatal care by private practitioners. They were not permitted to provide delivery care by the county health bureau, but as some 12% of all births occurred either at home or at private clinics; some village health workers might have been involved. The county level hospitals served as the referral centers for the township hospitals in the county. However, there was no formal regulation or guideline on how the referral system should work. Whether or not a woman was referred to a higher level hospital depended on the individual midwife's professional judgment and on the clients' compliance. The county health bureau had little power over township hospitals, because township hospitals had in the decentralization process become directly accountable to the township government. In the township and county hospitals only 10-20% of the recurrent costs were funded by local government (the township hospital was funded by the township government and the county hospital was funded by the county government) and the hospitals collected user fees to balance their budgets. Also the staff salaries depended on fee incomes by the hospital. The hospitals could define the user charges themselves. Prenatal care consultations were however free in most township hospitals. None of the midwives made postnatal home visits, because of low profit of these services. The three national household health survey data showed that the proportion of women receiving their first prenatal visit within 12 weeks increased greatly from the early to middle 1990s in all areas except for large cities. The increase was much larger in the rural areas, reducing the urban-rural difference from more than 4 times to about 1.4 times. The proportion of women that received antenatal care visits meeting the Ministry of Health s standard (at least 5 times) in the rural areas increased sharply from 12% in 1991-1993 to 36% in 2001-2003. In rural areas, the proportion increase was much faster in less developed areas than in developed areas. The hospital delivery rate increased slightly from 90% to 94% in urban areas while the proportion increased from 27% to 69% in rural areas. The fastest change was found to be in type 4 rural areas, where the utilization even quadrupled. The overall difference between rural and urban areas was substantially narrowed over the period. Multiple logistic regression analysis shows that time periods, residency in rural or urban areas, income levels, age group, education levels, delivery history, occupation, health insurance and distance from the nearest health care facilities were significantly associated with hospital delivery rates. Conclusions 1. Perinatal mortality in this study was much higher than that for urban areas as well as any reported rate from specific studies in rural areas of China. Previous studies in which calculations of infant mortality were not based on epidemiological surveys have been shown to underestimate the rates by more than 50%. 2. Routine statistics collected by the Chinese family planning system proved to be a reliable data source for studying perinatal health, including still births, neonatal deaths, sex ratio at birth and among newborns. National Household Health Survey data proved to be a useful and reliable data source for studying population health and health services. Prior to this research there were few studies in these areas available to international audiences. 3.Though perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the level of township economic development, the excess female early neonatal mortality rate contributed much more to high perinatal mortality rate than economic factors. This was likely a result of the role of the family planning policy and the traditional preferences for sons, which leads to lethal neglect of female newborns and high perinatal mortality. 4. The selective abortions of female foetuses were likely to contribute most to the high sex ratio at birth. The underreporting of female births seemed to have played a secondary role. The higher early neonatal mortality rate in second-born as compared to first-born children, particularly in females, may indicate that neglect or poorer care of female newborn infants also contributes to the high sex ratio at birth or among newborns. Existing family planning policy proved not to effectively control the steadily increased birth sex ratio. 5. The rural-urban gap in service utilization was on average significantly narrowed in terms of maternal healthcare in China from 1991 to 2003. This demonstrates that significant achievements in reducing inequities can be made through a combination of socio-economic development and targeted investments in improving health services, including infrastructure, staff capacities, and subsidies to reduce the costs of service utilization for the poorest. However, the huge gap which persisted among cities of different size and within different types of rural areas indicated the need for further efforts to support the poorest areas. 6. Hospital delivery care in the study county was better accepted by women because most of women think delivery care was very important while prenatal and postnatal care were not. Hospital delivery care was more systematically provided and promoted than prenatal and postnatal care by township hospital in the study area. The reliance of hospital staff income on user fees gave the hospitals an incentive to put more emphasis on revenue generating activities such as delivery care instead of prenatal and postnatal care, since delivery care generated much profits than prenatal and postnatal care . Recommendations 1. It is essential for the central government to re-assess and modify existing family planning policies. In order to keep national sex balance, the existing practice of one couple one child in urban areas and at-least-one-son a couple in rural areas should be gradually changed to a two-children-a-couple policy throughout the country. The government should establish a favourable social security policy for couples, especially for rural couples who have only daughters, with particular emphasis on their pension and medical care insurance, combined with an educational campaign for equal rights for boys and girls in society. 2. There is currently no routine vital-statistics registration system in rural China. Using the findings of this study, the central government could set up a routine vital-statistics registration system using family planning routine work records, which could be used by policy makers and researchers. 3. It is possible for the central and provincial government to invest more in the less developed and poor rural areas to increase the access of pregnant women in these areas to maternal care services. Central government together with local government should gradually provide free maternal care including prenatal and postnatal as well as delivery care to the women in poor and less developed rural areas. 4. Future research could be done to explore if county and the township level health care sector and the family planning system could be merged to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of maternal and child care. 5. Future research could be done to explore the relative contribution of maternal care, economic development and family planning policy on perinatal and child health using prospective cohort studies and community based randomized trials. Key words: perinatal health, perinatal mortality, stillbirth, neonatal death, sex selective abortion, sex ratio at birth, family planning, son preference, maternal care, prenatal care, postnatal care, equity, China

Dynamic Factor Models and Forecasting Finnish Macroeconomic Variables

In recent years, thanks to developments in information technology, large-dimensional datasets have been increasingly available. Researchers now have access to thousands of economic series and the information contained in them can be used to create accurate forecasts and to test economic theories. To exploit this large amount of information, researchers and policymakers need an appropriate econometric model.Usual time series models, vector autoregression for example, cannot incorporate more than a few variables. There are two ways to solve this problem: use variable selection procedures or gather the information contained in the series to create an index model. This thesis focuses on one of the most widespread index model, the dynamic factor model (the theory behind this model, based on previous literature, is the core of the first part of this study), and its use in forecasting Finnish macroeconomic indicators (which is the focus of the second part of the thesis). In particular, I forecast economic activity indicators (e.g. GDP) and price indicators (e.g. consumer price index), from 3 large Finnish datasets. The first dataset contains a large series of aggregated data obtained from the Statistics Finland database. The second dataset is composed by economic indicators from Bank of Finland. The last dataset is formed by disaggregated data from Statistic Finland, which I call micro dataset. The forecasts are computed following a two steps procedure: in the first step I estimate a set of common factors from the original dataset. The second step consists in formulating forecasting equations including the factors extracted previously. The predictions are evaluated using relative mean squared forecast error, where the benchmark model is a univariate autoregressive model. The results are dataset-dependent. The forecasts based on factor models are very accurate for the first dataset (the Statistics Finland one), while they are considerably worse for the Bank of Finland dataset. The forecasts derived from the micro dataset are still good, but less accurate than the ones obtained in the first case. This work leads to multiple research developments. The results here obtained can be replicated for longer datasets. The non-aggregated data can be represented in an even more disaggregated form (firm level). Finally, the use of the micro data, one of the major contributions of this thesis, can be useful in the imputation of missing values and the creation of flash estimates of macroeconomic indicator (nowcasting).

Using a botanic garden collection to test a bioclimatic vegetation scheme

Vegetation maps and bioclimatic zone classifications communicate the vegetation of an area and are used to explain how the environment regulates the occurrence of plants on large scales. Many practises and methods for dividing the world’s vegetation into smaller entities have been presented. Climatic parameters, floristic characteristics, or edaphic features have been relied upon as decisive factors, and plant species have been used as indicators for vegetation types or zones. Systems depicting vegetation patterns that mainly reflect climatic variation are termed ‘bioclimatic’ vegetation maps. Based on these it has been judged logical to deduce that plants moved between corresponding bioclimatic areas should thrive in the target location, whereas plants moved from a different zone should languish. This principle is routinely applied in forestry and horticulture but actual tests of the validity of bioclimatic maps in this sense seem scanty. In this study I tested the Finnish bioclimatic vegetation zone system (BZS). Relying on the plant collection of Helsinki University Botanic Garden’s Kumpula collection, which according to the BZS is situated at the northern limit of the hemiboreal zone, I aimed to test how the plants’ survival depends on their provenance. My expectation was that plants from the hemiboreal or southern boreal zones should do best in Kumpula, whereas plants from more southern and more northern zones should show progressively lower survival probabilities. I estimated probability of survival using collection database information of plant accessions of known wild origin grown in Kumpula since the mid 1990s, and logistic regression models. The total number of accessions I included in the analyses was 494. Because of problems with some accessions I chose to separately analyse a subset of the complete data, which included 379 accessions. I also analysed different growth forms separately in order to identify differences in probability of survival due to different life strategies. In most analyses accessions of temperate and hemiarctic origin showed lower survival probability than those originating from any of the boreal subzones, which among them exhibited rather evenly high probabilities. Exceptionally mild and wet winters during the study period may have killed off hemiarctic plants. Some winters may have been too harsh for temperate accessions. Trees behaved differently: they showed an almost steadily increasing survival probability from temperate to northern boreal origins. Various factors that could not be controlled for may have affected the results, some of which were difficult to interpret. This was the case in particular with herbs, for which the reliability of the analysis suffered because of difficulties in managing their curatorial data. In all, the results gave some support to the BZS, and especially its hierarchical zonation. However, I question the validity of the formulation of the hypothesis I tested since it may not be entirely justified by the BZS, which was designed for intercontinental comparison of vegetation zones, but not specifically for transcontinental provenance trials. I conclude that botanic gardens should pay due attention to information management and curational practices to ensure the widest possible applicability of their plant collections.

Non-industrial private forest landowners’ choices of timber management strategies.

The factors affecting the non-industrial, private forest landowners' (hereafter referred to using the acronym NIPF) strategic decisions in management planning are studied. A genetic algorithm is used to induce a set of rules predicting potential cut of the landowners' choices of preferred timber management strategies. The rules are based on variables describing the characteristics of the landowners and their forest holdings. The predictive ability of a genetic algorithm is compared to linear regression analysis using identical data sets. The data are cross-validated seven times applying both genetic algorithm and regression analyses in order to examine the data-sensitivity and robustness of the generated models. The optimal rule set derived from genetic algorithm analyses included the following variables: mean initial volume, landowner's positive price expectations for the next eight years, landowner being classified as farmer, and preference for the recreational use of forest property. When tested with previously unseen test data, the optimal rule set resulted in a relative root mean square error of 0.40. In the regression analyses, the optimal regression equation consisted of the following variables: mean initial volume, proportion of forestry income, intention to cut extensively in future, and positive price expectations for the next two years. The R2 of the optimal regression equation was 0.34 and the relative root mean square error obtained from the test data was 0.38. In both models, mean initial volume and positive stumpage price expectations were entered as significant predictors of potential cut of preferred timber management strategy. When tested with the complete data set of 201 observations, both the optimal rule set and the optimal regression model achieved the same level of accuracy.

Correlation of helicopter rotor aeroelastic response with HART-II wind tunnel test data

Purpose - This paper aims to validate a comprehensive aeroelastic analysis for a helicopter rotor with the higher harmonic control aeroacoustic rotor test (HART-II) wind tunnel test data. Design/methodology/approach - Aeroelastic analysis of helicopter rotor with elastic blades based on finite element method in space and time and capable of considering higher harmonic control inputs is carried out. Moderate deflection and coriolis nonlinearities are included in the analysis. The rotor aerodynamics are represented using free wake and unsteady aerodynamic models. Findings - Good correlation between analysis and HART-II wind tunnel test data is obtained for blade natural frequencies across a range of rotating speeds. The basic physics of the blade mode shapes are also well captured. In particular, the fundamental flap, lag and torsion modes compare very well. The blade response compares well with HART-II result and other high-fidelity aeroelastic code predictions for flap and torsion mode. For the lead-lag response, the present analysis prediction is somewhat better than other aeroelastic analyses. Research limitations/implications - Predicted blade response trend with higher harmonic pitch control agreed well with the wind tunnel test data, but usually contained a constant offset in the mean values of lead-lag and elastic torsion response. Improvements in the modeling of the aerodynamic environment around the rotor can help reduce this gap between the experimental and numerical results. Practical implications - Correlation of predicted aeroelastic response with wind tunnel test data is a vital step towards validating any helicopter aeroelastic analysis. Such efforts lend confidence in using the numerical analysis to understand the actual physical behavior of the helicopter system. Also, validated numerical analyses can take the place of time-consuming and expensive wind tunnel tests during the initial stage of the design process. Originality/value - While the basic physics appears to be well captured by the aeroelastic analysis, there is need for improvement in the aerodynamic modeling which appears to be the source of the gap between numerical predictions and HART-II wind tunnel experiments.

Evaluation of ductile-brittle transition temperature (DBTT) of aluminide bond coats by micro-tensile test method

A method has been suggested to accurately determine the DBTT of diffusion aluminide bond coats. Micro-tensile testing of free-standing coating samples has been carried out. The DBTT was determined based on the variation of plastic strain-to-fracture with temperature. The positive features of this method over the previously reported techniques are highlighted. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genomic alterations in Myeloproliferative Neoplasms and Myelodysplastic Syndromes

Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) and myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are a heterogeneous group of clonal hematopoietic disorders whose etiology and molecular pathogenesis are poorly understood. During the past decade, enormous developments in microarray technology and bioinformatics methods have made it possible to mine novel molecular alterations in a large number of malignancies, including MPN and MDS, which has facilitated the detection of new prognostic, predictive and therapeutic biomarkers for disease stratification. By applying novel microarray techniques, we profiled copy number alterations and microRNA (miRNA) expression changes in bone marrow aspirate and blood samples. In addition, we set up and validated an miRNA expression test for bone marrow core biopsies in order to utilize the large archive material available in many laboratories. We also tested JAK2 mutation status and compare it with the in vitro growth pattern of hematologic progenitors cells. In the study focusing on 100 MPN cases, we detected a Janus kinase 2 (JAK2) mutation in 71 cases. We observed spontaneous erythroid colony growth in all mutation-positive cases in addition to nine mutation negative cases. Interestingly, seven JAK2V167F negative ET cases showed spontaneous megakaryocyte colony formation, one case of which also harbored a myeloproliferative leukemia virus oncogene (MPL) mutation. We studied copy number alterations in 35 MPN and 37 MDS cases by using oligonucleotide-based array comparative hybridization (array CGH). Only one essential thrombocythemia (ET) case presented copy number alterations in chromosomes 1q and 13q. In contrast, MDS cases were characterized by numerous novel cryptic chromosomal aberrations with the most common copy number losses at 5q21.3q33.1 and 7q22.1q33, while the most common copy number gain was trisomy 8. As for the study of the bone marrow core biopsy samples, we showed that even though these samples were embedded in paraffin and underwent decalcification, they were reliable sources of miRNA and suitable for array expression analysis. Further, when studying the miRNA expression profiles of the 19 MDS cases, we found that, compared to controls, two miRNAs (one human Epstein-Barr virus (miR-BART13) miRNA and one human (has-miR-671-5p) miRNA) were downregulated, whereas two other miRNAs (hsa-miR-720 and hsa-miR-21) were upregulated. However, we could find no correlation between copy number alterations and microRNA expression when integrating these two data. This thesis brings to light new information about genomic changes implicated in the development of MPN and MDS, and also underlines the power of applying genome-wide array screening techniques in neoplasias. Rapid advances in molecular techniques and the integration of different genomic data will enable the discovery of the biological contexts of many complex disorders, including myeloid neoplasias.

On Minimization of Test Application Time for RAS

Conventional Random access scan (RAS) for testing has lower test application time, low power dissipation, and low test data volume compared to standard serial scan chain based design In this paper, we present two cluster based techniques, namely, Serial Input Random Access Scan and Variable Word Length Random Access Scan to reduce test application time even further by exploiting the parallelism among the clusters and performing write operations on multiple bits Experimental results on benchmarks circuits show on an average 2-3 times speed up in test write time and average 60% reduction in write test data volume

Fast distributed approximation algorithms for vertex cover and set cover in anonymous networks

We present a distributed algorithm that finds a maximal edge packing in O(Δ + log* W) synchronous communication rounds in a weighted graph, independent of the number of nodes in the network; here Δ is the maximum degree of the graph and W is the maximum weight. As a direct application, we have a distributed 2-approximation algorithm for minimum-weight vertex cover, with the same running time. We also show how to find an f-approximation of minimum-weight set cover in O(f2k2 + fk log* W) rounds; here k is the maximum size of a subset in the set cover instance, f is the maximum frequency of an element, and W is the maximum weight of a subset. The algorithms are deterministic, and they can be applied in anonymous networks.

Power System Stabilizers Design for Interconnected Power Systems

This paper proposes a method of designing fixed parameter decentralized power system stabilizers (PSS) for interconnected multi-machine power systems. Conventional design technique using a single machine infinite bus approximation involves the frequency response estimation called the GEP(s) between the AVR input and the resultant electrical torque. This requires the knowledge of equivalent external reactance and infinite bus voltage or their estimated values at each machine. Other design techniques using P-Vr characteristics or residues are based on complete system information. In the proposed method, information available at the high voltage bus of the step-up transformer is used to set up a modified Heffron-Phillip's model. With this model it is possible to decide the structure of the PSS compensator and tune its parameters at each machine in the multi-machine environment, using only those signals that are available at the generating station. The efficacy of the proposed design technique has been evaluated on three of the most widely used test systems. The simulation results have shown that the performance of the proposed stabilizer is comparable to that which could be obtained by conventional design but without the need for the estimation and computation of external system parameters.

Income inequality in the process of economic development : An empirical approach

This thesis studies the effect of income inequality on economic growth. This is done by analyzing panel data from several countries with both short and long time dimensions of the data. Two of the chapters study the direct effect of inequality on growth, and one chapter also looks at the possible indirect effect of inequality on growth by assessing the effect of inequality on savings. In Chapter two, the effect of inequality on growth is studied by using a panel of 70 countries and a new EHII2008 inequality measure. Chapter contributes on two problems that panel econometric studies on the economic effect of inequality have recently encountered: the comparability problem associated with the commonly used Deininger and Squire s Gini index, and the problem relating to the estimation of group-related elasticities in panel data. In this study, a simple way to 'bypass' vagueness related to the use of parametric methods to estimate group-related parameters is presented. The idea is to estimate the group-related elasticities implicitly using a set of group-related instrumental variables. The estimation results with new data and method indicate that the relationship between income inequality and growth is likely to be non-linear. Chapter three incorporates the EHII2.1 inequality measure and a panel with annual time series observations from 38 countries to test the existence of long-run equilibrium relation(s) between inequality and the level of GDP. Panel unit root tests indicate that both the logarithmic EHII2.1 inequality measure and the logarithmic GDP per capita series are I(1) nonstationary processes. They are also found to be cointegrated of order one, which implies that there is a long-run equilibrium relation between them. The long-run growth elasticity of inequality is found to be negative in the middle-income and rich economies, but the results for poor economies are inconclusive. In the fourth Chapter, macroeconomic data on nine developed economies spanning across four decades starting from the year 1960 is used to study the effect of the changes in the top income share to national and private savings. The income share of the top 1 % of population is used as proxy for the distribution of income. The effect of inequality on private savings is found to be positive in the Nordic and Central-European countries, but for the Anglo-Saxon countries the direction of the effect (positive vs. negative) remains somewhat ambiguous. Inequality is found to have an effect national savings only in the Nordic countries, where it is positive.

Continuous ordering below the tricritical point: A critical test for the kinetic pathway in Fe-12at.% Si alloy

A critical test has been presented to establish the nature of the kinetic pathways for the decomposition of Fe-12 at.% Si alloy below the metastable tricritical point. The results, based on the measurements of saturation magnetization, establish that a congruent ordering from B2 --> D0(3) precedes the development of a B2 + D0(3) two-phase field, consistent with the predictions in 1976 of Allen and Cahn.

Modelling multiple disulphide loop containing polypeptides by random conformation generation. The test cases of α-conotoxin GI and edothelin I

A general procedure for arriving at 3-D models of disulphiderich olypeptide systems based on the covalent cross-link constraints has been developed. The procedure, which has been coded as a computer program, RANMOD, assigns a large number of random, permitted backbone conformations to the polypeptide and identifies stereochemically acceptable structures as plausible models based on strainless disulphide bridge modelling. Disulphide bond modelling is performed using the procedure MODIP developed earlier, in connection with the choice of suitable sites where disulphide bonds could be engineered in proteins (Sowdhamini,R., Srinivasan,N., Shoichet,B., Santi,D.V., Ramakrishnan,C. and Balaram,P. (1989) Protein Engng, 3, 95-103). The method RANMOD has been tested on small disulphide loops and the structures compared against preferred backbone conformations derived from an analysis of putative disulphide subdatabase and model calculations. RANMOD has been applied to disulphiderich peptides and found to give rise to several stereochemically acceptable structures. The results obtained on the modelling of two test cases, a-conotoxin GI and endothelin I, are presented. Available NMR data suggest that such small systems exhibit conformational heterogeneity in solution. Hence, this approach for obtaining several distinct models is particularly attractive for the study of conformational excursions.

Sensitivity of wetland methane emissions to model assumptions: application and model testing against site observations

Abstract. Methane emissions from natural wetlands and rice paddies constitute a large proportion of atmospheric methane, but the magnitude and year-to-year variation of these methane sources is still unpredictable. Here we describe and evaluate the integration of a methane biogeochemical model (CLM4Me; Riley et al., 2011) into the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4CN) in order to better explain spatial and temporal variations in methane emissions. We test new functions for soil pH and redox potential that impact microbial methane production in soils. We also constrain aerenchyma in plants in always-inundated areas in order to better represent wetland vegetation. Satellite inundated fraction is explicitly prescribed in the model because there are large differences between simulated fractional inundation and satellite observations. A rice paddy module is also incorporated into the model, where the fraction of land used for rice production is explicitly prescribed. The model is evaluated at the site level with vegetation cover and water table prescribed from measurements. Explicit site level evaluations of simulated methane emissions are quite different than evaluating the grid cell averaged emissions against available measurements. Using a baseline set of parameter values, our model-estimated average global wetland emissions for the period 1993–2004 were 256 Tg CH4 yr−1, and rice paddy emissions in the year 2000 were 42 Tg CH4 yr−1. Tropical wetlands contributed 201 Tg CH4 yr−1, or 78 % of the global wetland flux. Northern latitude (>50 N) systems contributed 12 Tg CH4 yr−1. We expect this latter number may be an underestimate due to the low high-latitude inundated area captured by satellites and unrealistically low high-latitude productivity and soil carbon predicted by CLM4. Sensitivity analysis showed a large range (150–346 Tg CH4 yr−1) in predicted global methane emissions. The large range was sensitive to: (1) the amount of methane transported through aerenchyma, (2) soil pH (± 100 Tg CH4 yr−1), and (3) redox inhibition (± 45 Tg CH4 yr−1).