The combination of neural estimates in prediction and decision problems

In this dissertation, different ways of combining neural predictive models or neural-based forecasts are discussed. The proposed approaches consider mostly Gaussian radial basis function networks, which can be efficiently identified and estimated through recursive/adaptive methods. Two different ways of combining are explored to get a final estimate – model mixing and model synthesis –, with the aim of obtaining improvements both in terms of efficiency and effectiveness. In the context of model mixing, the usual framework for linearly combining estimates from different models is extended, to deal with the case where the forecast errors from those models are correlated. In the context of model synthesis, and to address the problems raised by heavily nonstationary time series, we propose hybrid dynamic models for more advanced time series forecasting, composed of a dynamic trend regressive model (or, even, a dynamic harmonic regressive model), and a Gaussian radial basis function network. Additionally, using the model mixing procedure, two approaches for decision-making from forecasting models are discussed and compared: either inferring decisions from combined predictive estimates, or combining prescriptive solutions derived from different forecasting models. Finally, the application of some of the models and methods proposed previously is illustrated with two case studies, based on time series from finance and from tourism.

Estudo e implementação de algoritmos inteligentes para detecção e classificação de falhas na medição de gás natural

This master dissertation presents the study and implementation of inteligent algorithms to monitor the measurement of sensors involved in natural gas custody transfer processes. To create these algoritmhs Artificial Neural Networks are investigated because they have some particular properties, such as: learning, adaptation, prediction. A neural predictor is developed to reproduce the sensor output dynamic behavior, in such a way that its output is compared to the real sensor output. A recurrent neural network is used for this purpose, because of its ability to deal with dynamic information. The real sensor output and the estimated predictor output work as the basis for the creation of possible sensor fault detection and diagnosis strategies. Two competitive neural network architectures are investigated and their capabilities are used to classify different kinds of faults. The prediction algorithm and the fault detection classification strategies, as well as the obtained results, are presented

Comparison of logistic and neural network models to fit to the egg production curve of White Leghorn hens

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Análise comparativa do desempenho de um Controlador Fuzzy acoplado a um PID Neural sintonizado por um Algoritmo Genético com Controladores Inteligentes Convencionais

On this paper, it is made a comparative analysis among a controller fuzzy coupled to a PID neural adjusted by an AGwith several traditional control techniques, all of them applied in a system of tanks (I model of 2nd order non lineal). With the objective of making possible the techniques involved in the comparative analysis and to validate the control to be compared, simulations were accomplished of some control techniques (conventional PID adjusted by GA, Neural PID (PIDN) adjusted by GA, Fuzzy PI, two Fuzzy attached to a PID Neural adjusted by GA and Fuzzy MISO (3 inputs) attached to a PIDN adjusted by GA) to have some comparative effects with the considered controller. After doing, all the tests, some control structures were elected from all the tested techniques on the simulating stage (conventional PID adjusted by GA, Fuzzy PI, two Fuzzy attached to a PIDN adjusted by GA and Fuzzy MISO (3 inputs) attached to a PIDN adjusted by GA), to be implemented at the real system of tanks. These two kinds of operation, both the simulated and the real, were very important to achieve a solid basement in order to establish the comparisons and the possible validations show by the results

Identificação não linear usando uma rede fuzzy wavelet neural network modificada

In last decades, neural networks have been established as a major tool for the identification of nonlinear systems. Among the various types of networks used in identification, one that can be highlighted is the wavelet neural network (WNN). This network combines the characteristics of wavelet multiresolution theory with learning ability and generalization of neural networks usually, providing more accurate models than those ones obtained by traditional networks. An extension of WNN networks is to combine the neuro-fuzzy ANFIS (Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System) structure with wavelets, leading to generate the Fuzzy Wavelet Neural Network - FWNN structure. This network is very similar to ANFIS networks, with the difference that traditional polynomials present in consequent of this network are replaced by WNN networks. This paper proposes the identification of nonlinear dynamical systems from a network FWNN modified. In the proposed structure, functions only wavelets are used in the consequent. Thus, it is possible to obtain a simplification of the structure, reducing the number of adjustable parameters of the network. To evaluate the performance of network FWNN with this modification, an analysis of network performance is made, verifying advantages, disadvantages and cost effectiveness when compared to other existing FWNN structures in literature. The evaluations are carried out via the identification of two simulated systems traditionally found in the literature and a real nonlinear system, consisting of a nonlinear multi section tank. Finally, the network is used to infer values of temperature and humidity inside of a neonatal incubator. The execution of such analyzes is based on various criteria, like: mean squared error, number of training epochs, number of adjustable parameters, the variation of the mean square error, among others. The results found show the generalization ability of the modified structure, despite the simplification performed

Uma proposição para o cálculo de mapas de disparidade de imagens estéreo usando um interpolador neural baseado em funções de base radial

This study aims to seek a more viable alternative for the calculation of differences in images of stereo vision, using a factor that reduces heel the amount of points that are considered on the captured image, and a network neural-based radial basis functions to interpolate the results. The objective to be achieved is to produce an approximate picture of disparities using algorithms with low computational cost, unlike the classical algorithms

Contribuição para o estudo do embarque de uma rede neural artificial em field programmable gate array (FPGA)

This study shows the implementation and the embedding of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in hardware, or in a programmable device, as a field programmable gate array (FPGA). This work allowed the exploration of different implementations, described in VHDL, of multilayer perceptrons ANN. Due to the parallelism inherent to ANNs, there are disadvantages in software implementations due to the sequential nature of the Von Neumann architectures. As an alternative to this problem, there is a hardware implementation that allows to exploit all the parallelism implicit in this model. Currently, there is an increase in use of FPGAs as a platform to implement neural networks in hardware, exploiting the high processing power, low cost, ease of programming and ability to reconfigure the circuit, allowing the network to adapt to different applications. Given this context, the aim is to develop arrays of neural networks in hardware, a flexible architecture, in which it is possible to add or remove neurons, and mainly, modify the network topology, in order to enable a modular network of fixed-point arithmetic in a FPGA. Five synthesis of VHDL descriptions were produced: two for the neuron with one or two entrances, and three different architectures of ANN. The descriptions of the used architectures became very modular, easily allowing the increase or decrease of the number of neurons. As a result, some complete neural networks were implemented in FPGA, in fixed-point arithmetic, with a high-capacity parallel processing

Análise de um controlador baseado no Jacobiano estimado da planta através de uma rede neural

This work presents an analysis of the control law based on an indirect hybrid scheme using neural network, initially proposed for O. Adetona, S. Sathanathan and L. H. Keel. Implementations of this control law, for a level plant of second order, was resulted an oscillatory behavior, even if the neural identifier has converged. Such results had motivated the investigation of the applicability of that law. Starting from that, had been made stability mathematical analysis and several implementations, with simulated plants and with real plants, for analyze the problem. The analysis has been showed the law was designed being despised some components of dynamic of the plant to be controlled. Thus, for plants that these components have a significant influence in its dynamic, the law tends to fail

Análise de desempenho da rede neural artificial do tipo multilayer perceptron na era multicore

Artificial neural networks are usually applied to solve complex problems. In problems with more complexity, by increasing the number of layers and neurons, it is possible to achieve greater functional efficiency. Nevertheless, this leads to a greater computational effort. The response time is an important factor in the decision to use neural networks in some systems. Many argue that the computational cost is higher in the training period. However, this phase is held only once. Once the network trained, it is necessary to use the existing computational resources efficiently. In the multicore era, the problem boils down to efficient use of all available processing cores. However, it is necessary to consider the overhead of parallel computing. In this sense, this paper proposes a modular structure that proved to be more suitable for parallel implementations. It is proposed to parallelize the feedforward process of an RNA-type MLP, implemented with OpenMP on a shared memory computer architecture. The research consistes on testing and analizing execution times. Speedup, efficiency and parallel scalability are analyzed. In the proposed approach, by reducing the number of connections between remote neurons, the response time of the network decreases and, consequently, so does the total execution time. The time required for communication and synchronization is directly linked to the number of remote neurons in the network, and so it is necessary to investigate which one is the best distribution of remote connections

Equalização neural aplicada a sistemas com modulação bidimensional em fibra óptica

Nowadays, optic fiber is one of the most used communication methods, mainly due to the fact that the data transmission rates of those systems exceed all of the other means of digital communication. Despite the great advantage, there are problems that prevent full utilization of the optical channel: by increasing the transmission speed and the distances involved, the data is subjected to non-linear inter symbolic interference caused by the dispersion phenomena in the fiber. Adaptive equalizers can be used to solve this problem, they compensate non-ideal responses of the channel in order to restore the signal that was transmitted. This work proposes an equalizer based on artificial neural networks and evaluates its performance in optical communication systems. The proposal is validated through a simulated optic channel and the comparison with other adaptive equalization techniques

A neural network approach for robust nonlinear parameter estimation in presence of unknown-but-bounded errors

Systems based on artificial neural networks have high computational rates due to the use of a massive number of simple processing elements and the high degree of connectivity between these elements. This paper presents a novel approach to solve robust parameter estimation problem for nonlinear model with unknown-but-bounded errors and uncertainties. More specifically, a modified Hopfield network is developed and its internal parameters are computed using the valid-subspace technique. These parameters guarantee the network convergence to the equilibrium points. A solution for the robust estimation problem with unknown-but-bounded error corresponds to an equilibrium point of the network. Simulation results are presented as an illustration of the proposed approach. Copyright (C) 2000 IFAC.

Stability and convergence analysis of a neural model applied in nonlinear systems optimization

A neural model for solving nonlinear optimization problems is presented in this paper. More specifically, a modified Hopfield network is developed and its internal parameters are computed using the valid-subspace technique. These parameters guarantee the convergence of the network to the equilibrium points that represent an optimal feasible solution. The network is shown to be completely stable and globally convergent to the solutions of nonlinear optimization problems. A study of the modified Hopfield model is also developed to analyze its stability and convergence. Simulation results are presented to validate the developed methodology.

A neural system to robust Nonlinear optimization subject to disjoint and constrained sets

The ability of neural networks to realize some complex nonlinear function makes them attractive for system identification. This paper describes a novel method using artificial neural networks to solve robust parameter estimation problems for nonlinear models with unknown-but-bounded errors and uncertainties. More specifically, a modified Hopfield network is developed and its internal parameters are computed using the valid-subspace technique. These parameters guarantee the network convergence to the equilibrium points. A solution for the robust estimation problem with unknown-but-bounded error corresponds to an equilibrium point of the network. Simulation results are presented as an illustration of the proposed approach.

An efficient neural approach to economic load dispatch in power systems

A neural approach to solve the problem defined by the economic load dispatch in power systems is presented in this paper, Systems based on artificial neural networks have high computational rates due to the use of a massive number of simple processing elements and the high degree of connectivity between these elements the ability of neural networks to realize some complex nonlinear function makes them attractive for system optimization the neural networks applyed in economic load dispatch reported in literature sometimes fail to converge towards feasible equilibrium points the internal parameters of the modified Hopfield network developed here are computed using the valid-subspace technique These parameters guarantee the network convergence to feasible quilibrium points, A solution for the economic load dispatch problem corresponds to an equilibrium point of the network. Simulation results and comparative analysis in relation to other neural approaches are presented to illustrate efficiency of the proposed approach.

Neural network based estimation of torque in induction motors for real-time applications

Induction motors are largely used in several industry sectors. The selection of an induction motor has still been inaccurate because in most of the cases the load behavior in its shaft is completely unknown. The proposal of this article is to use artificial neural networks for torque estimation with the purpose of best selecting the induction motors rather than conventional methods, which use classical identification techniques and mechanical load modeling. Since proposed approach estimates the torque behavior from the transient to the steady state, one of its main contributions is the potential to also be implemented in control schemes for real-time applications. Simulation results are also presented to validate the proposed approach.