The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change.

The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition.

Owl melanin-based plumage redness is more frequent near than away from the equator: implications on the effect of climate change on biodiversity

Climate change acts as a major new selective agent on many organisms, particularly at high latitudes where climate change is more pronounced than at lower latitudes. Studies are required to predict which species are at a high risk of extinction and whether certain phenotypes may be more affected by climate change than others. The identification of susceptible phenotypes is important for evaluating the potential negative effect of climate change on biodiversity at the inter- and intraspecific levels. Melanin-based coloration is an interesting and easily accessible candidate trait because, within certain species, reddish pheomelanin-based coloration is associated with adaptations to warm climates. However, it is unclear whether the same holds among species. We tested one prediction of this hypothesis in four owl genera (wood, scops, screech, and pygmy owls), namely that darker reddish species are more prevalent near the equator than polewards. Our comparative analysis is consistent with this prediction for the northern hemisphere, suggesting that pale reddish species may be adapted to cold climates and dark reddish species to warmer climates. Thus, climate change may have a larger negative impact on pale pheomelanic owls and favour dark pheomelanic species.

Three essays in incomplete contracts

General Introduction These three chapters, while fairly independent from each other, study economic situations in incomplete contract settings. They are the product of both the academic freedom my advisors granted me, and in this sense reflect my personal interests, and of their interested feedback. The content of each chapter can be summarized as follows: Chapter 1: Inefficient durable-goods monopolies In this chapter we study the efficiency of an infinite-horizon durable-goods monopoly model with a fmite number of buyers. We find that, while all pure-strategy Markov Perfect Equilibria (MPE) are efficient, there also exist previously unstudied inefficient MPE where high valuation buyers randomize their purchase decision while trying to benefit from low prices which are offered once a critical mass has purchased. Real time delay, an unusual monopoly distortion, is the result of this attrition behavior. We conclude that neither technological constraints nor concern for reputation are necessary to explain inefficiency in monopolized durable-goods markets. Chapter 2: Downstream mergers and producer's capacity choice: why bake a larger pie when getting a smaller slice? In this chapter we study the effect of downstream horizontal mergers on the upstream producer's capacity choice. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find anon-monotonic relationship: horizontal mergers induce a higher upstream capacity if the cost of capacity is low, and a lower upstream capacity if this cost is high. We explain this result by decomposing the total effect into two competing effects: a change in hold-up and a change in bargaining erosion. Chapter 3: Contract bargaining with multiple agents In this chapter we study a bargaining game between a principal and N agents when the utility of each agent depends on all agents' trades with the principal. We show, using the Potential, that equilibria payoffs coincide with the Shapley value of the underlying coalitional game with an appropriately defined characteristic function, which under common assumptions coincides with the principal's equilibrium profit in the offer game. Since the problem accounts for differences in information and agents' conjectures, the outcome can be either efficient (e.g. public contracting) or inefficient (e.g. passive beliefs).

Managing Human Factor in Accounting Change - Introducing Activity Based Costing System to Organization

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on identifioida yleisimmät toimintolaskennan implementointiin liittyvät ongelmat ja muutosprojektin onnistumiseen vaikuttavat tekijät. Tavoitteena on myös saada kokonaisvaltainen kuva siitä, miksi laskentatoimen muutokset ovat vaikeita implementoida ja miten ihmisten käyttäytyminen vaikuttaa muutosprosessin onnistumiseen. Sekä laskentatoimen että muutosjohtamisen teorioita tarkastellaan laaja-alaisen kuvan saamiseksi siitä, miten ihmisiin ja heidän käyttäytymiseensä liittyvät tekijät vaikuttavat muutosprojektin onnistumiseen tai epäonnistumiseen. Tutkielma käyttää empiirisiä tutkimustuloksia pohjana aiheen tarkastelulle. Tutkielma tarjoaa ehdotuksia tulevaisuuden tutkimukselle liittyen laskentatoimen muutoksen kriittisiin tekijöihin. Kiinnostavimpia alueita tulevaisuuden tutkimukselle on pohtia tarkemmin, miten työntekijöiden oletukset johtajien motiiveista muutoksen takana vaikuttavat muutosvastarintaan sekä miten organisaation rakenne ja muutosvastarintavaikuttavat muutoksen institutionaalistamiseen.

Luottoluokituksen informaatioarvo Suomen osakemarkkinoilla

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on tutkia Standard & Poor's:n ja Moody's:n antamien luottoluokitusten informaatioarvoa Suomen osakemarkkinoilla. Tutkimuksessa selvitetään, millaisia vaikutuksia luottoluokituksen lasku ja nosto sekä luottoluokituksen pysyminen ennallaanaiheuttavat osakekurssiin. Aineisto koostuu 42 luottoluokitusilmoituksesta viiden vuoden aikavälillä, syyskuusta 2001 marraskuuhun 2006. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin pitkän aikavälin luottoluokituksia. Luottoluokitusilmoitusten vaikutuksia osakemarkkinoilla tutkittiin tapahtumatutkimusmenetelmän avulla. Empiiristen tulosten perusteella luottoluokituksen lasku ja näkymän heikentyminen aiheuttavat merkitseviä positiivisia epänormaaleja tuottoja. Luottoluokituksen nosto ja näkymän parantuminen eivät aiheuta markkinareaktioita. Markkinat osoittavat epänormaaleja tuottoja ennen luottoluokitusilmoitusta.

Elintasoerot Euroopan unionin alueella

Kandidaatintyön tavoitteena on tutkia EU:n 27 jäsenvaltion elintasojen eroja. Tutkielma on suoritettu käyttäen apuna viimeisempiä tilastollisia tietoja jäsenvaltioiden taloudellisten tilanteiden kehittymisestä. Jäsenvaltiot on jaettu työssä kahteen pääryhmään: EU-15 maihin, eli vanhoihin jäsenvaltioihin sekä uusiin jäsenvaltioihin, joita on tällä hetkellä 12. Elintasoerojen tutkimiseen työssä on käytetty mm. ostovoimakorjattua bruttokansantuloa, valtion velan osuutta BKT:stä, kuluttajahintojen inflaatiota, työntuottavuuden muutoslukuja, työttömyysastetta sekä suhteellisen hintatason muutosta jäsenvaltioissa. Tutkielmassa analysoidaan eri elintasomittareilla koottuja taulukoita sekä pyritään selvittämään niiden avulla jäsenvaltioiden todellisia elintasoeroja. Lisäksi työssä tutkitaan syitä elintasoerojen taustalla sekä niiden vaikutusta Euroopan unionintoimintaan. EU:n jäsenvaltioiden välillä on suuria elintasoeroja, jotka johtuvat esim. sosiaalisesta ja taloudellisesta eriarvoisuudesta. EU-15 maiden talouskasvu on hidastunut, mutta maiden elintaso on silti korkea. Uusien jäsenvaltioiden elintaso on vielä selvästi alhaisempi, mutta niiden siirtymätaloudet kasvavat voimakkaasti. EU pyrkii aluepolitiikan avulla kaventamaan elintasokuilua jäsenvaltioiden välillä.

Continent wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change

Climate impact studies have indicated ecological fingerprints of recent global warming across a wide range of habitats. Whereas these studies have shown responses from various local case studies, a coherent large-scale account on temperature-driven changes of biotic communities has been lacking. Here we use 867 vegetation samples above the treeline from 60 summit sites in all major European mountain systems to show that ongoing climate change gradually transforms mountain plant communities. We provide evidence that the more cold-adapted species decline and the more warm-adapted species increase, a process described here as thermophilisation. At the scale of individual mountains this general trend may not be apparent, but at the¦larger, continental scale we observed a significantly higher abundance of thermophilic species in 2008, compared with 2001. Thermophilisation of mountain plant communities mirrors the degree of recent warming and is more pronounced in areas where the temperature increase has been higher. In view of the projected climate change the observed transformation suggests a progressive decline of cold mountain habitats and their biota.

Three essays on short-term macroeconomics : business fluctuations, large devaluations and inflation dynamics

Résumé: At least since the Great Depression, explaining why there are business fluctuations has been one of the biggest challenges that the science of economics has had to face. The hope is that if we could better understand recessions, then we could also be more successful in overcoming them. This dissertation consists of three papers that are part of the general endeavor of economists to understand these fluctuations. The first paper discusses, for a particular model, whether a result related to fluctuations would still hold if time were modeled as continuous rather than discrete. The two other papers focus on price stickiness. The second paper discusses why, after a large devaluation, prices of non-tradables may change by only a small amount in comparison to the magnitude of the devaluation. The third paper examines price adjustment in a model in which information is imperfect and it is costly to change prices.

Analysis of thermal properties of phase change materials (PCM) using differential scanning calorimeter (DSC)

Commercially available PCM RT 20, RT 27, SP 22, A17 and SP 25 A8. Were analyzed using dynamic and step method of heat flux DSC. The results of the dinamic and step method were compared with commercial valures. It was found that RT 20 & RT 27 showed good conforming of results with commercial values while SP 22 A17 & SP 25 A8 did not show conformity.

Numerical analysis of including phase change material in a domestic hot water cylinder

The domestic hot water cylinder incorporates encapsulated pcm placed in 57 vertical pipes. The use of PCM increases the thermal energy storage capacity of the cylinder and allows the use of low cost electricity during low peak periods. After experimental validation the numerical model developed in the project will be used to optimize the distribution of the pcm inside the water tank.

Improvement of the thermal performance of commercial freezers using phase change materials (PCM)

The aim of this work is to improve the thermal performance of commercial freezers using phase change materials (PCM) and the prove the importance of the correct PCM selection (melting temperature) for each application. To do this a vertical freezer with and without macro encapsulation PCM are used to assess the benefits of using PCM in minimizing temperature fluctuations and to maintain at the lowest possible temperature the freezer under heat of losses.

Exploring the strategic impact of technological change - Studies on the role of Internet in magazine publishing

Over the past few decades, turbulent change has characterized the situation in the media industry. It has been noted that digitalization and new media are strongly influencing the industry: it is changing the existing market dynamics and requires new strategies. Prior research on the impact of digitalization and the Internet has emphasized news-focused media such as newspaper publishing and broadcasting, yet magazine publishing is very seldom the focus of the research. This study examines how the Internetimpacts magazine publishing. The work presents a multi-level analysis on the role and impact of the Internet on magazine products, companies and industry. The study is founded on strategic management, technology management and media economics literature. This study consists of two parts. The first part introduces the research topic and discusses the overall results of the study. The second part comprises five research publications. Qualitative research methods are used throughout. The results of the study indicate that the Internet has not had a disruptive effect on magazine publishing, and that its strategic implications could rather be considered complementary to the print magazine and the business as a whole. It seems that the co-specialized assets, together with market-related competencies and unchanged core competence have protected established firms from the disruptive effect of the new technology in magazine publishing. In addition, it seems that the Internet offers a valuable possibility to build and nourish customer relationships. The study contributes tomedia management and economics research by moving from product- or industry-level investigations towards a strategic-management perspective.