Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioral, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Exergetic, energetic, economic and environmental evaluation of concentrated solar power plants in Libya

The PhD project addresses the potential of using concentrating solar power (CSP) plants as a viable alternative energy producing system in Libya. Exergetic, energetic, economic and environmental analyses are carried out for a particular type of CSP plants. The study, although it aims a particular type of CSP plant – 50 MW parabolic trough-CSP plant, it is sufficiently general to be applied to other configurations. The novelty of the study, in addition to modeling and analyzing the selected configuration, lies in the use of a state-of-the-art exergetic analysis combined with the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The modeling and simulation of the plant is carried out in chapter three and they are conducted into two parts, namely: power cycle and solar field. The computer model developed for the analysis of the plant is based on algebraic equations describing the power cycle and the solar field. The model was solved using the Engineering Equation Solver (EES) software; and is designed to define the properties at each state point of the plant and then, sequentially, to determine energy, efficiency and irreversibility for each component. The developed model has the potential of using in the preliminary design of CSPs and, in particular, for the configuration of the solar field based on existing commercial plants. Moreover, it has the ability of analyzing the energetic, economic and environmental feasibility of using CSPs in different regions of the world, which is illustrated for the Libyan region in this study. The overall feasibility scenario is completed through an hourly analysis on an annual basis in chapter Four. This analysis allows the comparison of different systems and, eventually, a particular selection, and it includes both the economic and energetic components using the “greenius” software. The analysis also examined the impact of project financing and incentives on the cost of energy. The main technological finding of this analysis is higher performance and lower levelized cost of electricity (LCE) for Libya as compared to Southern Europe (Spain). Therefore, Libya has the potential of becoming attractive for the establishment of CSPs in its territory and, in this way, to facilitate the target of several European initiatives that aim to import electricity generated by renewable sources from North African and Middle East countries. The analysis is presented a brief review of the current cost of energy and the potential of reducing the cost from parabolic trough- CSP plant. Exergetic and environmental life cycle assessment analyses are conducted for the selected plant in chapter Five; the objectives are 1) to assess the environmental impact and cost, in terms of exergy of the life cycle of the plant; 2) to find out the points of weakness in terms of irreversibility of the process; and 3) to verify whether solar power plants can reduce environmental impact and the cost of electricity generation by comparing them with fossil fuel plants, in particular, Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) plant and oil thermal power plant. The analysis also targets a thermoeconomic analysis using the specific exergy costing (SPECO) method to evaluate the level of the cost caused by exergy destruction. The main technological findings are that the most important contribution impact lies with the solar field, which reports a value of 79%; and the materials with the vi highest impact are: steel (47%), molten salt (25%) and synthetic oil (21%). The “Human Health” damage category presents the highest impact (69%) followed by the “Resource” damage category (24%). In addition, the highest exergy demand is linked to the steel (47%); and there is a considerable exergetic demand related to the molten salt and synthetic oil with values of 25% and 19%, respectively. Finally, in the comparison with fossil fuel power plants (NGCC and Oil), the CSP plant presents the lowest environmental impact, while the worst environmental performance is reported to the oil power plant followed by NGCC plant. The solar field presents the largest value of cost rate, where the boiler is a component with the highest cost rate among the power cycle components. The thermal storage allows the CSP plants to overcome solar irradiation transients, to respond to electricity demand independent of weather conditions, and to extend electricity production beyond the availability of daylight. Numerical analysis of the thermal transient response of a thermocline storage tank is carried out for the charging phase. The system of equations describing the numerical model is solved by using time-implicit and space-backward finite differences and which encoded within the Matlab environment. The analysis presented the following findings: the predictions agree well with the experiments for the time evolution of the thermocline region, particularly for the regions away from the top-inlet. The deviations observed in the near-region of the inlet are most likely due to the high-level of turbulence in this region due to the localized level of mixing resulting; a simple analytical model to take into consideration this increased turbulence level was developed and it leads to some improvement of the predictions; this approach requires practically no additional computational effort and it relates the effective thermal diffusivity to the mean effective velocity of the fluid at each particular height of the system. Altogether the study indicates that the selected parabolic trough-CSP plant has the edge over alternative competing technologies for locations where DNI is high and where land usage is not an issue, such as the shoreline of Libya.

Intrastromal corneal ring segments: how successful is the surgical treatment of keratoconus?

This review evaluates the outcomes of intrastromal corneal ring segment (ICRS) implantation for the treatment of keratoconus considering a new grading system based on the preoperative visual impairment of the patient. Additionally, a five-year follow-up analysis of patients with stable and progressive keratoconus is performed in order to assess the long term stability of the surgical procedure. Corrected distance visual acuity decreased statistically significantly in patients with mild keratoconus (P < 0.01) but statistically significantly increased in all other grades (P < 0.05). The improvement in visual acuity and the decrease of keratometric and aberrometric values were stable throughout a long period of time in patients with stable keratoconus. In patients with progressive form keratoconus, a significant improvement was found immediately after the procedure, however clinically relevant regression greater than 3 D was observed at the end of the follow up period.

Concentrating solar power + desalination plants (CSP+D): models and performance analysis

Tese submetida à Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Superior Técnico e aprovada em provas públicas para a obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Sistemas Sustentáveis de Energia.

Effects of incomplete combustion on atmospheric chemistry: Black carbon climate forcing and global carbon monoxide emissions

This thesis is actually the composition of two separate studies aimed at further understanding the role of incomplete combustion products on atmospheric chemistry. The first explores the sensitivity of black carbon (BC) forcing to aerosol vertical location since BC has an increased forcing per unit mass when it is located above reflective clouds. We used a column radiative transfer model to produce globally-averaged values of normalized direct radiative forcing (NDRF) for BC over and under different types of clouds. We developed a simple column-weighting scheme based on the mass fractions of BC that are over and under clouds in measured vertical profiles. The resulting NDRF is in good agreement with global 3-D model estimates, supporting the column-weighted model as a tool for exploring uncertainties due to diversity in vertical distribution. BC above low clouds accounts for about 20% of the global burden but 50% of the forcing. We estimate maximum-minimum spread in NDRF due to modeled profiles as about 40% and uncertainty as about 25%. Models overestimate BC in the upper troposphere compared with measurements; modeled NDRF might need to be reduced by about 15%. Redistributing BC within the lowest 4 km of the atmosphere affects modeled NDRF by only about 5% and cannot account for very high forcing estimates. The second study estimated global year 2000 carbon monoxide (CO) emissions using a traditional bottom-up inventory. We applied literature-derived emission factors to a variety of fuel and technology combinations. Combining these with regional fuel use and production data we produced CO emissions estimates that were separable by sector, fuel type, technology, and region. We estimated year 2000 stationary source emissions of 685.9 Tg/yr and 885 Tg/yr if we included adopted mobile sources from EDGAR v3.2FT2000. Open/biomass burning contributed most significantly to global CO burden, while the residential sector, primarily in Asia and Africa, were the largest contributors with respect to contained combustion sources. Industry production in Asia, including brick, cement, iron and steel-making, also contributed significantly to CO emissions. Our estimates of biofuel emissions are lower than most previously published bottom-up estimates while our other fuel emissions are generally in good agreement. Our values are also universally lower than recently estimated CO emissions from models using top-down methods.

The Demobilized Body: Transgressions of Personal Space and Political Participation

Grounded in the intersection between gender politics and electoral studies, this dissertation examines the demobilizing effects of violations of personal space (in the form of domestic violence, control over mobility, emotional abuse, and sexual harassment) on the propensity to vote. Using quantitative methods across four survey datasets concerning Lebanon, the United States, Morocco, and Yemen, this research concludes that cross-regionally, familial control over mobility reduces the propensity to vote among women. Conversely, mechanisms of empowerment such as education and employment increase the propensity to vote.

Wsparcie Stanów Zjednoczonych skierowane na promowanie demokracji na Bliskim Wschodzie w latach 2003-2013 na przykładach Egiptu, Iraku i Jordanii

Wydział Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa

New worlds and new churches: The Orthodox Church(es) and the European Union

The Orthodox church(es) share a common commitment to the unity of dogma and spirituality. There is, however, no doctrinal formulation that comes close to a form of political theology at a pan-Orthodox level. This means that the Orthodox churches’ attitude towards the European Union (EU) is driven by their ecclesial diversity and by complex inter-ecclesial relations. More fundamentally they share a fragmented and plural, theological objection to the very ideas of Europe and the West. This has been further complicated by the emergence of a substantial Orthodox diaspora from Eastern Europe, Russia, and the Middle East living across the breadth of the European continent. Consequently the ecclesial identity and self-perception of the autocephalous Orthodox churches is changing. These churches are becoming increasingly transnational and extra-territorial. With this, their perception of Europe and the West, as seen through the eyes of their diaspora communities, is altering from “threat” to “home” (Makrides and Uffelmann, 2003). The growing diaspora will not only impact the Christian demographics of Europe but will also transform the Eastern Churches’ view of Europe and the EU (Leustean, 2009; 2011; 2013; 2014a; 2014b).

Turkish Security Policymaking on Nuclear Issues: Conceptualizing Advanced Cooperative Security Strategies

Turkey is a non-nuclear member of a nuclear alliance in a region where nuclear proliferation is of particular concern. As the only North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member that has a border with the Middle East, Turkish officials argue that Turkey cannot solely rely on NATO guarantees in addressing the regional security challenges. However, Turkey has not been able to formulate a security policy that reconciles its quest for independence, its NATO membership, the bilateral relationship with the United States, and regional engagement in the Middle East. This dissertation assesses the strategic implications of Turkey’s perceptions of the U.S./NATO nuclear and conventional deterrence on nuclear issues. It explores three case studies by the process tracing of Turkish policymakers’ nuclear-related decisions on U.S. tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Europe, national air and missile defense, and Iran’s nuclear program. The study finds that the principles of Turkish security policymaking do not incorporate a fundamentally different reasoning on nuclear issues than conventional deterrence. Nuclear weapons and their delivery systems do not have a defining role in Turkish security and defense strategy. The decisions are mainly guided by non-nuclear considerations such as Alliance politics, modernization of the domestic defense industry, and regional influence. The dissertation argues that Turkey could formulate more effective and less risky security policies on nuclear issues by emphasizing the cooperative security approaches within the NATO Alliance over confrontational measures. The findings of this dissertation reveal that a major transformation of Turkish security policymaking is required to end the crisis of confidence with NATO, redefinition of the strategic partnership with the US, and a more cautious approach toward the Middle East. The dissertation argues that Turkey should promote proactive measures to reduce, contain, and counter risks before they develop into real threats, as well as contribute to developing consensual confidence-building measures to reduce uncertainty.

Relatório de estágio. Starwood Hotels & Resorts, Brussels

Dissertação de Mestrado, Direção e Gestão Hoteleira, Escola Superior de Gestão, Hotelaria e Turismo, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Os movimentos migratórios para a Europa : Implicações para a Segurança Nacional

Os recentes movimentos migratórios para a Europa decorrentes da atual crise de refugiados é dos temas mais debatidos na atualidade. A instabilidade em países de África e do Médio Oriente, associada a Estados frágeis, cujas instituições deixaram de exercer o efetivo controlo, desenvolvendo-se sob a forma de conflitos armados, muitas vezes fundamentados em radicalismos de natureza étnica, religiosa e ideológica, estão na base das principais causas que provocaram os recentes movimentos migratórios descontrolados e sem precedentes. Estes massivos fluxos migratórios, terão necessariamente repercussões a vários níveis quer sobre as populações deslocadas, quer sobre as comunidades de acolhimento. As migrações atuais adquirem novos contornos, que nos levam a inserir este tema na agenda de investigação dos estudos de segurança. É neste âmbito que surge a investigação intitulada “Os Movimentos Migratórios para a Europa – Implicações para a Segurança Nacional”, que tal como o tema sugere, tem como objetivo primordial apurar quais as principais implicações para a segurança de Portugal, decorrentes dos atuais movimentos migratórios para a Europa, acabando também por propor algumas medidas de nível estratégico e operacional que permitam minorar os impactos na segurança. Assim sendo, a metodologia utilizada nesta investigação tem por base o método de investigação hipotético-dedutivo, que para a validação ou não das respetivas hipóteses formuladas, recorreu-se à realização de entrevistas a entidades que muito têm a dizer sobre esta temática. Conclui-se com a presente investigação que, apesar de Portugal, não fazer parte dos principais destinos desta recente vaga de imigrantes, e de as consequências destes massivos movimentos migratórios não serem fáceis de prever a médio e longo prazo, o nosso país, como parte integrante da UE e signatário do acordo de Schengen, depara-se com um conjunto de ameaças de natureza global, que podendo ser potenciadas por este fenómeno, também podem colocar em causa a nossa segurança.

EVALUATING THE OIL SANDS RECLAMATION PROCESS: ASSESSING POLICY CAPACITY AND STAKEHOLDER ACCESS FOR GOVERNMENT AND NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS OPERATING IN ALBERTA’S OIL SANDS

By employing interpretive policy analysis this thesis aims to assess, measure, and explain policy capacity for government and non-government organizations involved in reclaiming Alberta's oil sands. Using this type of analysis to assess policy capacity is a novel approach for understanding reclamation policy; and therefore, this research will provide a unique contribution to the literature surrounding reclamation policy. The oil sands region in northeast Alberta, Canada is an area of interest for a few reasons; primarily because of the vast reserves of bitumen and the environmental cost associated with developing this resource. An increase in global oil demand has established incentive for industry to seek out and develop new reserves. Alberta's oil sands are one of the largest remaining reserves in the world, and there is significant interest in increasing production in this region. Furthermore, tensions in several oil exporting nations in the Middle East remain unresolved, and this has garnered additional support for a supply side solution to North American oil demands. This solution relies upon the development of reserves in both the United States and Canada. These compounding factors have contributed to the increased development in the oil sands of northeastern Alberta. Essentially, a rapid expansion of oil sands operations is ongoing, and is the source of significant disturbance across the region. This disturbance, and the promises of reclamation, is a source of contentious debates amongst stakeholders and continues to be highly visible in the media. If oil sands operations are to retain their social license to operate, it is critical that reclamation efforts be effective. One concern non-governmental organizations (NGOs) expressed criticizes the current monitoring and enforcement of regulatory programs in the oil sands. Alberta's NGOs have suggested the data made available to them originates from industrial sources, and is generally unchecked by government. In an effort to discern the overall status of reclamation in the oil sands this study explores several factors essential to policy capacity: work environment, training, employee attitudes, perceived capacity, policy tools, evidence based work, and networking. Data was collected through key informant interviews with senior policy professionals in government and non-government agencies in Alberta. The following are agencies of interest in this research: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP); Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development (AESRD); Alberta Energy Regulator (AER); Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA); Alberta Environment Monitoring, Evaluation, and Reporting Agency (AEMERA); Wood Buffalo Environmental Association (WBEA). The aim of this research is to explain how and why reclamation policy is conducted in Alberta's oil sands. This will illuminate government capacity, NGO capacity, and the interaction of these two agency typologies. In addition to answering research questions, another goal of this project is to show interpretive analysis of policy capacity can be used to measure and predict policy effectiveness. The oil sands of Alberta will be the focus of this project, however, future projects could focus on any government policy scenario utilizing evidence-based approaches.

PDF Cover

On the 15th of April, 1897, a 19 year-old European resident of Baghdad, named Alexander Richard Svoboda, set out on a long journey to Europe by caravan, boat and train. From a large and influential family of merchants, artists, and explorers settled in Ottoman Iraq since the end of the 18th century, Alexander traveled in the company of his parents and a departing British diplomat accompanied by his retinue. They followed a circuitous route through the Middle East to Cairo and thence to Europe on a three and a half month journey which Alexander described day-by-day in a journal written in the Iraqi Arabic of his time.

PDF Pre-Preface

On the 15th of April, 1897, a 19 year-old European resident of Baghdad, named Alexander Richard Svoboda, set out on a long journey to Europe by caravan, boat and train. From a large and influential family of merchants, artists, and explorers settled in Ottoman Iraq since the end of the 18th century, Alexander traveled in the company of his parents and a departing British diplomat accompanied by his retinue. They followed a circuitous route through the Middle East to Cairo and thence to Europe on a three and a half month journey which Alexander described day-by-day in a journal written in the Iraqi Arabic of his time.

PDF Preface

On the 15th of April, 1897, a 19 year-old European resident of Baghdad, named Alexander Richard Svoboda, set out on a long journey to Europe by caravan, boat and train. From a large and influential family of merchants, artists, and explorers settled in Ottoman Iraq since the end of the 18th century, Alexander traveled in the company of his parents and a departing British diplomat accompanied by his retinue. They followed a circuitous route through the Middle East to Cairo and thence to Europe on a three and a half month journey which Alexander described day-by-day in a journal written in the Iraqi Arabic of his time.