Advances in sequential data assimilation and numerical weather forecasting: an Ensemble Transform Kalman-Bucy Filter, a study on clustering in deterministic Ensemble Square Root Filters, and a test of a new time stepping scheme in an atmospheric model

This dissertation deals with aspects of sequential data assimilation (in particular ensemble Kalman filtering) and numerical weather forecasting. In the first part, the recently formulated Ensemble Kalman-Bucy (EnKBF) filter is revisited. It is shown that the previously used numerical integration scheme fails when the magnitude of the background error covariance grows beyond that of the observational error covariance in the forecast window. Therefore, we present a suitable integration scheme that handles the stiffening of the differential equations involved and doesn’t represent further computational expense. Moreover, a transform-based alternative to the EnKBF is developed: under this scheme, the operations are performed in the ensemble space instead of in the state space. Advantages of this formulation are explained. For the first time, the EnKBF is implemented in an atmospheric model. The second part of this work deals with ensemble clustering, a phenomenon that arises when performing data assimilation using of deterministic ensemble square root filters in highly nonlinear forecast models. Namely, an M-member ensemble detaches into an outlier and a cluster of M-1 members. Previous works may suggest that this issue represents a failure of EnSRFs; this work dispels that notion. It is shown that ensemble clustering can be reverted also due to nonlinear processes, in particular the alternation between nonlinear expansion and compression of the ensemble for different regions of the attractor. Some EnSRFs that use random rotations have been developed to overcome this issue; these formulations are analyzed and their advantages and disadvantages with respect to common EnSRFs are discussed. The third and last part contains the implementation of the Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter in an atmospheric model. The RAW filter is an improvement to the widely popular Robert-Asselin filter that successfully suppresses spurious computational waves while avoiding any distortion in the mean value of the function. Using statistical significance tests both at the local and field level, it is shown that the climatology of the SPEEDY model is not modified by the changed time stepping scheme; hence, no retuning of the parameterizations is required. It is found the accuracy of the medium-term forecasts is increased by using the RAW filter.

Environmental and ecological economics in the 21st century: an age adjusted citation analysis of the influential articles, journals, authors and institutions

We investigate the influence of articles, authors, journals and institutions in the field of environmental and ecological economics. We depart from studies that investigated the literature until 2001 and include a time period that has witnessed an enormous increase of importance in the field. We adjust for the age effect given the huge impact of the year of an article's publication on its influence and we show that this adjustment does make a substantial difference — especially for disaggregated units of analysis with diverse age characteristics such as articles or authors. We analyse 6597 studies on environmental and ecological economics published between 2000 and 2009. We provide rankings of the influential articles, authors, journals and institutions and find that Ecological Economics, Energy Economics and the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management have the most influential articles, they publish very influential authors and their articles are cited most. The University of Maryland, Resources for the Future, the University of East Anglia and the World Bank appear to be the most influential institutions in the field of environmental and ecological economics.

Global burned-land estimation in Latin America using MODIS composite data

This paper presents results of the AQL2004 project, which has been develope within the GOFC-GOLD Latin American network of remote sensing and forest fires (RedLatif). The project intended to obtain monthly burned-land maps of the entire region, from Mexico to Patagonia, using MODIS (moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer) reflectance data. The project has been organized in three different phases: acquisition and preprocessing of satellite data; discrimination of burned pixels; and validation of results. In the first phase, input data consisting of 32-day composites of MODIS 500-m reflectance data generated by the Global Land Cover Facility (GLCF) of the University of Maryland (College Park, Maryland, U.S.A.) were collected and processed. The discrimination of burned areas was addressed in two steps: searching for "burned core" pixels using postfire spectral indices and multitemporal change detection and mapping of burned scars using contextual techniques. The validation phase was based on visual analysis of Landsat and CBERS (China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite) images. Validation of the burned-land category showed an agreement ranging from 30% to 60%, depending on the ecosystem and vegetation species present. The total burned area for the entire year was estimated to be 153 215 km2. The most affected countries in relation to their territory were Cuba, Colombia, Bolivia, and Venezuela. Burned areas were found in most land covers; herbaceous vegetation (savannas and grasslands) presented the highest proportions of burned area, while perennial forest had the lowest proportions. The importance of croplands in the total burned area should be taken with reserve, since this cover presented the highest commission errors. The importance of generating systematic products of burned land areas for different ecological processes is emphasized.

Potential role of NF-kappaB in adult neural stem cells: the underrated steersman?

Neural stem cells are precursors of neurons and glial cells. During brain development, these cells proliferate, migrate and differentiate into specific lineages. Recently neural stem cells within the adult central nervous system were identified. Informations are now emerging about regulation of stem cell proliferation, migration and differentiation by numerous soluble factors such as chemokines and cytokines. However, the signal transduction mechanisms downstream of these factors are less clear. Here, we review potential evidences for a novel central role of the transcription factor nuclear factor kappa B (NF-kappaB) in these crucial signal transduction processes. NF-kappaB is an inducible transcription factor detected in neurons, glia and neural stem cells. NF-kappaB was discovered by David Baltimore's laboratory as a transcription factor in lymphocytes. NF-kappaB is involved in many biological processes such as inflammation and innate immunity, development, apoptosis and anti-apoptosis. It has been recently shown that members of the NF-kappaB family are widely expressed by neurons, glia and neural stem cells. In the nervous system, NF-kappaB plays a crucial role in neuronal plasticity, learning, memory consolidation, neuroprotection and neurodegeneration. Recent data suggest an important role of NF-kappaB on proliferation, migration and differentiation of neural stem cells. NF-kappaB is composed of three subunits: two DNA-binding and one inhibitory subunit. Activation of NF-kappaB takes place in the cytoplasm and results in degradation of the inhibitory subunit, thus enabling the nuclear import of the DNA-binding subunits. Within the nucleus, several target genes could be activated. In this review, we suggest a model explaining the multiple action of NF-kappaB on neural stem cells. Furthermore, we discuss the potential role of NF-kappaB within the so-called brain cancer stem cells.

Environmental and ecological economics in the 21st century: an age adjusted citation analysis of the most influential articles, journals, authors and institutions

We investigate the influence of articles, authors, journals and institutions in the field of environmental and ecological economics. We depart from studies that investigated the literature until 2001 and include a time period that has witnessed an enormous increase of importance in the field. We adjust for the age effect given the huge impact of the year of an article's publication on its influence and we show that this adjustment does make a substantial difference — especially for disaggregated units of analysis with diverse age characteristics such as articles or authors. We analyse 6597 studies on environmental and ecological economics published between 2000 and 2009. We provide rankings of the influential articles, authors, journals and institutions and find that Ecological Economics, Energy Economics and the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management have the most influential articles, they publish very influential authors and their articles are cited most. The University of Maryland, Resources for the Future, the University of East Anglia and the World Bank appear to be the most influential institutions in the field of environmental and ecological economics.

Sleep deprivation of rats: The hyperphagic response is real

Study Objectives: Chronic sleep deprivation of rats causes hyperphagia without body weight gain. Sleep deprivation hyperphagia is prompted by changes in pathways governing food intake; hyperphagia may be adaptive to sleep deprivation hypermetabolism. A recent paper suggested that sleep deprivation might inhibit ability of rats to increase food intake and that hyperphagia may be an artifact of uncorrected chow spillage. To resolve this, a palatable liquid diet (Ensure) was used where spillage is insignificant. Design: Sleep deprivation of male Sprague Dawley rats was enforced for 10 days by the flowerpot/platform paradigm. Daily food intake and body weight were measured. On day 10, rats were transcardially perfused for analysis of hypothalamic mRNA expression of the orexigen, neuropeptide Y (NPY). Setting: Morgan State University, sleep deprivation and transcardial perfusion; University of Maryland, NPY in situ hybridization and analysis. Measurements and Results: Using a liquid diet for accurate daily measurements, there was no change in food intake in the first 5 days of sleep deprivation. Importantly, from days 6-10 it increased significantly, peaking at 29% above baseline. Control rats steadily gained weight but sleep-deprived rats did not. Hypothalamic NPY mRNA levels were positively correlated to stimulation of food intake and negatively correlated with changes in body weight. Conclusion: Sleep deprivation hyperphagia may not be apparent over the short term (i.e., <= 5 days), but when extended beyond 6 days, it is readily observed. The timing of changes in body weight and food intake suggests that the negative energy balance induced by sleep deprivation prompts the neural changes that evoke hyperphagia.

Fatores da administração do sistema penitenciário do Rio de Janeiro que os impedem de cumprirem com sua missão de recuperação do detento?

Since some years ago, the penitentiany systen of Rio de Janeiro is going through the nuest sendus administrative crisis,leading more and more to chaotic situations, over imagined before by homan being. Nowadays all the factors and components of the existing models are still medievaIs, and even distant fron the human needs. The daily life ofthe condemned is a sway betuen lack of hygiene, disrespect to homan rigts, lack of modem corrective practices and also, lack of psychological support. How, then can me demand from the state ( Govemment) the rehabilitation of the imprisoned and their preparation to face society if they are treated manny times as victins of this same society? This society impose a life style enjoyed only by a privileged social class which forget about then when sent to the darkness. Many of then, join the penitentary systen because of minor crimes, and when they serve their tem, um for funately they go back to prison accused for move violent crimes. The penitentian models haven't developed the same way the society where they worked at has. There, the present brazilian penitentiary model has showed obsolete and inefficient alone its principal mission ofrehabilitation and re - education ofthe imprisoned. Our main objetive will be the construction and analysis of the penitential administrative model, as being able to fullfill the necesity of the penitentiary administrator (Manager). Analy zing on a specific reasoning which focus showld not be that of the theories and isolated projects of the topic, we will develop a progran far form religions, judiciary on political technics by building na administrtive penitentiary model strictly professional where we coul a have a deep analysis of the topic. We will try to approach the aspects of organization existing to day inorder to understand them and criate, a model wich will adjust betten to the necesitives of this thesis.

Estratégias de sobrevivência e de convivência nas prisões do Rio de Janeiro

Este estudo busca mostrar diversos aspectos do sistema prisional do Rio de Janeiro. Procura desenvolver comparação com outros momentos da história da instituição, de forma a mostrar a sua continuidade no tempo. Traz atenção à formação da cultura do presos, sua assimilação pela chamada massa carcerária e o extravasamento da mesma para a comunidade de fora dos muros. Desenvolve o papel da família na vida do preso e em sua manutenção e destaca problemas encontrados pela mesma para prestar assistência emocional ao detento. Apresenta a indiferença social em relação à cidadania e aos direitos previstos na Constituição Federal. Faz um histórico de dois estabelecimentos prisionais em que se passam as principais questões da formação do prisioneiro e de sua prisão. Lida com os conceitos de memória e apresenta dois presos que se destacam entre os demais, como sendo a elite dos que se organizam para se defender das condições precárias e violentas do sistema penitenciário. Por fim, apresenta questões inerentes ao convívio entre grupos de presos muito distintos, os políticos e os comuns.

“The Wire”: O que a série de TV diz sobre os #baltimoreriots

Não é raro que o universo da ficção se misture com a realidade nas redes sociais – sobretudo quando a ficção ajuda a entender e explicar acontecimentos da política ou da economia, por exemplo. Foi o que ocorreu esta semana nos Estados Unidos, em virtude da mobilização popular em Baltimore em protestos pela morte do jovem negro Freddie Gray sob custódia da polícia em 19 de abril. A prestigiada série de TV americana “The Wire”, produzida pela HBO de 2002 a 2008 e que aborda diversos prismas sociopolíticos de Baltimore, vem sendo lembrada com frequência no contexto dos protestos.

Dilemas da administração prisional: a Escola de Gestão Penitenciária do Rio de Janeiro

Este trabalho tem o objetivo de analisar as peculiaridades dos cursos oferecidos pela Escola de Gestão Penitenciária do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Para isso, foi utilizado como metodologia a analise documental a partir do documento coletado na própria sede da Escola. Busca-se analisar se existe ou não alguma particularidade nas aulas oferecidas para os servidores penitenciários, tendo em vista que os mesmos realizam um trabalho de extrema importância dentro do sistema carcerário. Em um primeiro momento foi exposta a bibliografia pertinente à temática que se encontra o presente trabalho. Em seguida, foi realizada uma exposição, com base nas próprias afirmações da Escola embasadas no documento, sobre os cursos que a mesma oferece. A partir da análise minuciosa a respeito das aulas oferecidas, foi elaborada uma investigação a fim de constatar se existe ou não uma ideologia carcerária por trás da pedagogia dos cursos.

A materialização da dignidade da pessoa humana e o cumprimento das penas privativas de liberdade

The current research come from need to analyze possibilities to materialize human dignity principle during freedom curtail penalties fullfilment, abreast finding that internal and international regulations dictate this is the way to be tread by Brazilian penitentiary system, however, verily, indignity, assistance missing, overcrownding, crime, in the end, barbarie reigns. The work will analyze two strands in order to effective the mentioned principle: the state responsability optics, such in internal scope, as internationally, abreast historical omission in satisfy Constitution, international treaties and laws; and also indicating penal execution alternative methods adoption as a way, bringing to fore a case study - called "apaqueano" method. With such desideratum will bring, first of all, considerations about consolidation process of human dignity principle, its concept and essential content. Furthermore, will address historical and philosophical evolution of freedom curtail penalties. As it follows, will be done an approach about constitutional and underconstitutional legislation that disciplines penalties fullfiling in Brazil, analyzing their main aspects, emphasizing the possibility to charge Brazilian state for disregarding mentioned standards. Next, will also be started a critical analyzis about international regulations, which forbids diminishing or cruel penalties or treatments, approaching human rights international treaties and conventions ratified by Braziland their incorporation and effectiveness in local Law, emphasizing monitoring forms and country international charging possibility for disregarding international regulations. Lastly, will advance to the real possibility to materialize human dignity principle in penalties fullfiling, based in a case study verification - the APAC (Associação de Proteção e Assistência aos Condenados) called method, analyzing the various theories about penalties grounding, with emphasis in their ressocializing function, as well as traditional penitentiary systems, and the theory adopted by vernacular order, in desideratum to contribute to improve national penitentiary system chaotic situation