How the west was once: vegetation change in south-west Queensland from 1930 to 1995

Conflicting perceptions of past and present rangeland condition and limited historical data have led to debate regarding the management of vegetation in pastoral landscapes both internationally and in Australia. In light of this controversy we have sought to provide empirical evidence to determine the trajectory of vegetational change in a semi-arid rangeland for a significant portion of the 20th century using a suite of proxy measures. Ambathala Station, approximately 780 km west of Brisbane, in the semi-arid rangelands of south-western Queensland, Australia. We excavated stratified deposits of sheep manure which had accumulated beneath a shearing shed between the years 1930 and 1995. Multi-proxy data, including pollen and leaf cuticle analyses and analysis of historical aerial photography were coupled with a fine resolution radiocarbon chronology to generate a near annual history of vegetation on the property and local area. Aerial photography indicates that minor (< 5%) increases in the density of woody vegetation took place between 1951 and 1994 in two thirds of the study area not subjected to clearing. Areas that were selectively or entirely cleared prior to the 1950s (approximately 16% of the study area) had recovered to almost 60% of their original cover by the 1994 photo period. This slight thickening is only partially evident from pollen and leaf cuticle analyses of sheep faeces. Very little change in vegetation is revealed over the nearly 65 years based on the relative abundances of pollen taxonomic groups. Microhistological examination of sheep faeces provides evidence of dramatic changes in sheep diet. The majority of dietary changes are associated with climatic events of sustained above-average rainfall or persistent drought. Most notable in the dietary analysis is the absence of grass during the first two decades of the record. In contrast to prevailing perceptions and limited research into long-term vegetation change in the semi-arid areas of eastern Australia, the record of vegetation change at the Ambathala shearing shed indicates only a minor increase in woody vegetation cover and no decrease in grass cover on the property over the 65 years of pastoral activity covered by the study. However, there are marked changes in the abundance of grass cuticles in sheep faeces. The appearance and persistence of grass in sheep diets from the late 1940s can be attributed to the effects of periods of high rainfall and possibly some clearing and thinning of vegetation. Lower stock numbers may have allowed grass to persist through later drought years. The relative abundances of major groups of plant pollen have not changed significantly over the past 65 years.

A Bayesian hierarchical model for categorical longitudinal data from a social survey of immigrants

The paper investigates a Bayesian hierarchical model for the analysis of categorical longitudinal data from a large social survey of immigrants to Australia. Data for each subject are observed on three separate occasions, or waves, of the survey. One of the features of the data set is that observations for some variables are missing for at least one wave. A model for the employment status of immigrants is developed by introducing, at the first stage of a hierarchical model, a multinomial model for the response and then subsequent terms are introduced to explain wave and subject effects. To estimate the model, we use the Gibbs sampler, which allows missing data for both the response and the explanatory variables to be imputed at each iteration of the algorithm, given some appropriate prior distributions. After accounting for significant covariate effects in the model, results show that the relative probability of remaining unemployed diminished with time following arrival in Australia.

Extent and economic effect of heat loads on dairy cattle production in Australia

Objective To investigate the extent of heat load problems, caused by the combination of excessive temperature and humidity, in Holstein-Friesian cows in Australia. Also, to outline how milk production losses and consequent costs from this can be estimated and minimised. Procedures Long-term meteorological data for Australia were analysed to determine the distribution of hot conditions over space and time. Fifteen dairy production regions were identified for higher-resolution data analysis. Both the raw meteorological data and their integration into a temperature-humidity thermal index were compiled onto a computer program. This mapping software displays the distribution of climatic patterns, both Australia-wide and within the selected dairying regions. Graphical displays of the variation in historical records for 200 locations in the 15 dairying regions are also available. As a separate study, production data from research stations, on-farm trials and milk factory records were statistically analysed and correlated with the climatic indices, to estimate production losses due to hot conditions. Results Both milk yields and milk constituents declined with increases in the temperature-humidity index. The onset and rate of this decline are dependent on a number of factors, including location, level of production, adaptation, and management regime. These results have been integrated into a farm-level economic analysis for managers of dairy properties. Conclusion By considering the historical patterns of hot conditions over time and space, along with expected production losses, managers of dairy farms can now conduct an economic evaluation of investment strategies to alleviate heat loads. These strategies include the provision of sprinklers, shade structures, or combinations of these.

Constructing internationally comparable real income aggregates by combining sparse benchmark data with annual national accounts data: A state-space approach

The importance of availability of comparable real income aggregates and their components to applied economic research is highlighted by the popularity of the Penn World Tables. Any methodology designed to achieve such a task requires the combination of data from several sources. The first is purchasing power parities (PPP) data available from the International Comparisons Project roughly every five years since the 1970s. The second is national level data on a range of variables that explain the behaviour of the ratio of PPP to market exchange rates. The final source of data is the national accounts publications of different countries which include estimates of gross domestic product and various price deflators. In this paper we present a method to construct a consistent panel of comparable real incomes by specifying the problem in state-space form. We present our completed work as well as briefly indicate our work in progress.

ALIENAÇÃO DO HOMEM NO TRABALHO: PROPOSTA DE UMA METODOLOGIA DE PESQUISA PARA A SUA ANÁLISE NO PLANO EMPÍRICO DA GESTÃO

Esta dissertação busca discutir a alienação do homem contemporâneo e avaliar diferentes caminhos científicos para seu estudo. Foram descritos diferentes momentos históricos que reforçaram a alienação do trabalhador e avaliadas três técnicas de pesquisa, para entender qual seria a mais indicada para a percepção da questão. As técnicas são a história oral, a pesquisa de levantamento - técnica de Survey e a observação participante. A pesquisa de campo permite inferir pela análise dos dados que a história oral temática possibilitou a auto-reflexão dos sujeitos, apontando-se um caminho à des-alienação e no encontro da autenticidade da pessoa.(AU)

DA OBJEÇÃO AO RECONHECIMENTO: uma análise da política eclesiástica da Assembleia de Deus brasileira com respeito à educação teológica formal (1943-1983)

Este texto é resultado de uma pesquisa, do ponto de vista histórico e sociológico, sobre a política eclesiástica da Assembleia de Deus brasileira com respeito à formação teológico-pastoral. Buscou-se entender como se deu a mudança de postura da liderança assembleiana, que, de uma objeção inicial quanto à educação teológica formal, passou a reconhecê-la como requisito ao ministério pastoral. O marco cronológico que delimita o tema explica-se pelo fato de que, em 1943, ocorreram as primeiras discussões oficiais sobre o ensino teológico formal, ocasião em que a Assembleia de Deus rejeitou a criação dos seminários teológicos. A mudança ocorreu gradativamente, mediante uma série de acontecimentos, dentre eles, a diminuição de influência dos missionários suecos junto às Assembleias de Deus, a criação da Casa Publicadora, a chegada de missionários norte-americanos e à ascensão de pastores apoiadores de uma educação formal. Quarenta anos depois, em 1983, a Convenção Geral dos líderes assembleianos decidiu recomendar a qualificação teológica, como exigência ao ministério pastoral. A metodologia adotada foi de uma pesquisa bibliográfica. Visando um estudo explicativo, foi feito um levantamento de dados históricos a partir dos periódicos oficiais da AD, além de documentos que retratam o assunto proposto neste trabalho.

A COMUNICAÇÃO ORGANIZACIONAL NA JUSTIÇA DO TRABALHO BRASILEIRA: da rotina operacional à gestão estratégica

Esta dissertação trata da comunicação organizacional realizada no âmbito da Justiça do Trabalho do Brasil e teve como objetivo verificar como se realizam as principais atividades dessa área em tribunais regionais do trabalho, relacionando-as à atuação estratégica das instituições. Para atingir tal objetivo, fizemos uso de pesquisa bibliográfica, evidenciando aspectos do Poder Judiciário em nosso país e também das principais teorias acerca da comunicação empresarial estratégica. Também realizamos a análise de documentos que ajudaram a obter dados históricos sobre a comunicação neste ramo da Justiça. Por fim, procedemos à aplicação de questionários e à realização de entrevistas em profundidade, por meio das quais pudemos obter um panorama da atual situação dos departamentos de comunicação nos TRTs.A análise efetuada evidenciou a evolução vivenciada pelas áreas de comunicação dos tribunais nos últimos anos. Apuramos que a maior parte dos departamentos desenvolve planos estratégicos e executa as ações previstas, prestando relevantes serviços ao órgão e também à sociedade como um todo. No entanto, identificamos que tal planejamento não é realizado com base em diagnósticos e que os tribunais ainda não consolidaram uma cultura de pesquisa e tampouco uma cultura de comunicação. Buscamos apontar, assim, caminhos para que a comunicação nessas instituições possa ser realizada de forma cada vez mais estratégica e integrada.

LUTO NA ESCOLA: UM CUIDADO NECESSÁRIO

O presente trabalho trata de uma investigação sobre a presença e o processo do luto por morte nas escolas e, também, como professores, coordenadores e diretores podem apoiar estudantes enlutados. Um significativo índice de mortes de estudantes demonstra que o processo experimentado por estudantes enlutados é realidade presente nas escolas. Por sua relevância, entende-se ser fundamental que o tema seja considerado na educação escolar. A opção metodológica para o desenvolvimento do estudo pautou-se pela realização de uma revisão da literatura para teoricamente traçar uma perspectiva histórica e social fundamentada principalmente em Paiva (2011), Kovács (2003), Franco (2002), Kübler-Ross (1996). Optou-se, também, por usar noticiários e documentários. Para a realização da pesquisa empírica, a investigação teve como campo 2 escolas públicas da Grande São Paulo e 23 sujeitos entre os quais professores, coordenador e diretores. Desse universo, 13 sujeitos eram da escola A e 10 da escola B; todos atuando diretamente com os alunos. Realizouse, em uma primeira etapa, a aplicação de um questionário estruturado, respondido inicialmente pelos 23 sujeitos. Na segunda etapa da pesquisa, utilizou-se como método a entrevista de aprofundamento com uma amostra de 10 profissionais (dois diretores, uma coordenadora e sete professores). Após responderem ao questionário, esses profissionais desejaram participar espontaneamente dessa segunda etapa, para que se pudesse obter maior aprofundamento das questões relacionadas à investigação. Por meio da análise de conteúdo dos relatos obtidos, foram construídos três temas: significado em perder uma pessoa por morte; facilidades e/ou dificuldades em lidar com as questões de luto/morte na escola; papel de gestores e educadores frente às manifestações de luto entre estudantes na escola. Como referências para análises dos dados, elencaram-se Queiroz (2003) e Demartini (2001). A pesquisa permitiu averiguar a presença e o processo de luto por morte nas escolas e como professores, coordenadores e diretores abordam o tema da morte, do luto e da perda. A pesquisa procurou também conhecer e refletir sobre os significados que os educadores têm acerca do luto e morte no contexto escolar. Esse conhecimento possibilitou conhecer como alguns professores e outros profissionais da educação trabalham (ou não) com o processo do luto na escola. As análises construídas a partir dos temas revelaram que alguns profissionais que vivenciam ou vivenciaram a dor pela perda por morte têm dificuldades em lidar com o tema na escola por não saberem lidar com essa situação. Outra questão considerada é a falta de apoio da escola e a falta de preparo dos profissionais ao lidar com o luto na escola. Os relatos apresentam a morte interdita de jovens como uma realidade presente nas escolas e ocupando cada vez mais espaço. Esse assunto desafiador não se encerra. Há muitas ações que a escola necessita realizar. Este trabalho propõe caminhos para novas investigações e desafios.

Rule induction for data exploration

This paper describes how the statistical technique of cluster analysis and the machine learning technique of rule induction can be combined to explore a database. The ways in which such an approach alleviates the problems associated with other techniques for data analysis are discussed. We report the results of experiments carried out on a database from the medical diagnosis domain. Finally we describe the future developments which we plan to carry out to build on our current work.

Probabilistic principal component analysis

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a ubiquitous technique for data analysis and processing, but one which is not based upon a probability model. In this paper we demonstrate how the principal axes of a set of observed data vectors may be determined through maximum-likelihood estimation of parameters in a latent variable model closely related to factor analysis. We consider the properties of the associated likelihood function, giving an EM algorithm for estimating the principal subspace iteratively, and discuss the advantages conveyed by the definition of a probability density function for PCA.

Probabilistic principal component analysis

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a ubiquitous technique for data analysis and processing, but one which is not based upon a probability model. In this paper we demonstrate how the principal axes of a set of observed data vectors may be determined through maximum-likelihood estimation of parameters in a latent variable model closely related to factor analysis. We consider the properties of the associated likelihood function, giving an EM algorithm for estimating the principal subspace iteratively, and discuss the advantages conveyed by the definition of a probability density function for PCA.

Using DEA and simulation in guiding operating units to improved performance

The potential for the use of DEA and simulation in a mutually supporting role in guiding operating units to improved performance is presented. An analysis following a three-stage process is suggested. Stage one involves obtaining the data for the DEA analysis. This can be sourced from historical data, simulated data or a combination of the two. Stage two involves the DEA analysis that identifies benchmark operating units. In the third stage simulation can now be used in order to offer practical guidance to operating units towards improved performance. This can be achieved by the use of sensitivity analysis of the benchmark unit using a simulation model to offer direct support as to the feasibility and efficiency of any variations in operating practices to be tested. Alternatively, the simulation can be used as a mechanism to transmit the practices of the benchmark unit to weaker performing units by building a simulation model of the weaker unit to the process design of the benchmark unit. The model can then compare performance of the current and benchmark process designs. Quantifying improvement in this way provides a useful driver to any process change initiative that is required to bring the performance of weaker units up to the best in class. © 2005 Operational Research Society Ltd. All rights reserved.

Macro determinants of FDI inflows to Japan:an analysis of source country characteristics

This paper examines the source country determinants of FDI into Japan. The paper highlights certain methodological and theoretical weaknesses in the previous literature and offers some explanations for hitherto ambiguous results. Specifically, the paper highlights the importance of panel data analysis, and the identification of fixed effects in the analysis rather than simply pooling the data. Indeed, we argue that many of the results reported elsewhere are a feature of this mis-specification. To this end, pooled, fixed effects and random effects estimates are compared. The results suggest that FDI into Japan is inversely related to trade flows, such that trade and FDI are substitutes. Moreover, the results also suggest that FDI increases with home country political and economic stability. The paper also shows that previously reported results, regarding the importance of exchange rates, relative borrowing costs and labour costs in explaining FDI flows, are sensitive to the econometric specification and estimation approach. The paper also discusses the importance of these results within a policy context. In recent years Japan has sought to attract FDI, though many firms still complain of barriers to inward investment penetration in Japan. The results show that cultural and geographic distance are only of marginal importance in explaining FDI, and that the results are consistent with the market-seeking explanation of FDI. As such, the attitude to risk in the source country is strongly related to the size of FDI flows to Japan. © 2007 The Authors Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The application of analysis of variance (ANOVA) to different experimental designs in optometry

Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is the most efficient method available for the analysis of experimental data. Analysis of variance is a method of considerable complexity and subtlety, with many different variations, each of which applies in a particular experimental context. Hence, it is possible to apply the wrong type of ANOVA to data and, therefore, to draw an erroneous conclusion from an experiment. This article reviews the types of ANOVA most likely to arise in clinical experiments in optometry including the one-way ANOVA ('fixed' and 'random effect' models), two-way ANOVA in randomised blocks, three-way ANOVA, and factorial experimental designs (including the varieties known as 'split-plot' and 'repeated measures'). For each ANOVA, the appropriate experimental design is described, a statistical model is formulated, and the advantages and limitations of each type of design discussed. In addition, the problems of non-conformity to the statistical model and determination of the number of replications are considered. © 2002 The College of Optometrists.

Negotiating face in feedback conferences:a linguistic ethnographic analysis

This article examines the negotiation of face in post observation feedback conferences on an initial teacher training programme. The conferences were held in groups with one trainer and up to four trainees and followed a set of generic norms. These norms include the right to offer advice and to criticise, speech acts which are often considered to be face threatening in more normal contexts. However, as the data analysis shows, participants also interact in ways that challenge the generic norms, some of which might be considered more conventionally face attacking. The article argues that face should be analysed at the level of interaction (Haugh and Bargiela-Chiappini, 2010) and that situated and contextual detail is relevant to its analysis. It suggests that linguistic ethnography, which 'marries' (Wetherell, 2007) linguistics and ethnography, provides a useful theoretical framework for doing so. To this end the study draws on real-life talk-in-interaction (from transcribed recordings), the participants' perspectives (from focus groups and interviews) and situated detail (from fieldnotes) to produce a contextualised and nuanced analysis. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.