New evidence on inflation persistence and price stickiness in the Euro area: Implications for macro modelling

This paper evaluates new evidence on price setting practices and inflation persistence in the euro area with respect to its implications for macro modelling. It argues that several of the most commonly used assumptions in micro-founded macro models are seriously challenged by the new findings.

Implementing TURF analysis through binary linear programming

This paper introduces the approach of using Total Unduplicated Reach and Frequency analysis (TURF) to design a product line through a binary linear programming model. This improves the efficiency of the search for the solution to the problem compared to the algorithms that have been used to date. The results obtained through our exact algorithm are presented, and this method shows to be extremely efficient both in obtaining optimal solutions and in computing time for very large instances of the problem at hand. Furthermore, the proposed technique enables the model to be improved in order to overcome the main drawbacks presented by TURF analysis in practice.

3D seismic facies characterization and geological patterns recognition (Australian North West Shelf)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This PhD research, funded by the Swiss Sciences Foundation, is principally devoted to enhance the recognition, the visualisation and the characterization of geobodies through innovative 3D seismic approaches. A series of case studies from the Australian North West Shelf ensures the development of reproducible integrated 3D workflows and gives new insight into local and regional stratigraphic as well as structural issues. This project was initiated in year 2000 at the Geology and Palaeontology Institute of the University of Lausanne (Switzerland). Several collaborations ensured the improvement of technical approaches as well as the assessment of geological models. - Investigations into the Timor Sea structural style were carried out at the Tectonics Special Research Centre of the University of Western Australia and in collaboration with Woodside Energy in Perth. - Seismic analysis and attributes classification approach were initiated with Schlumberger Oilfield Australia in Perth; assessments and enhancements of the integrated seismic approaches benefited from collaborations with scientists from Schlumberger Stavanger Research (Norway). Adapting and refining from "linear" exploration techniques, a conceptual "helical" 3D seismic approach has been developed. In order to investigate specific geological issues this approach, integrating seismic attributes and visualisation tools, has been refined and adjusted leading to the development of two specific workflows: - A stratigraphic workflow focused on the recognition of geobodies and the characterization of depositional systems. Additionally, it can support the modelling of the subsidence and incidentally the constraint of the hydrocarbon maturity of a given area. - A structural workflow used to quickly and accurately define major and secondary fault systems. The integration of the 3D structural interpretation results ensures the analysis of the fault networks kinematics which can affect hydrocarbon trapping mechanisms. The application of these integrated workflows brings new insight into two complex settings on the Australian North West Shelf and ensures the definition of astonishing stratigraphic and structural outcomes. The stratigraphic workflow ensures the 3D characterization of the Late Palaeozoic glacial depositional system on the Mermaid Nose (Dampier Subbasin, Northern Carnarvon Basin) that presents similarities with the glacial facies along the Neotethys margin up to Oman (chapter 3.1). A subsidence model reveals the Phanerozoic geodynamic evolution of this area (chapter 3.2) and emphasizes two distinct mode of regional extension for the Palaeozoic (Neotethys opening) and Mesozoic (abyssal plains opening). The structural workflow is used for the definition of the structural evolution of the Laminaria High area (Bonaparte Basin). Following a regional structural characterization of the Timor Sea (chapter 4.1), a thorough analysis of the Mesozoic fault architecture reveals a local rotation of the stress field and the development of reverse structures (flower structures) in extensional setting, that form potential hydrocarbon traps (chapter 4.2). The definition of the complex Neogene structural architecture associated with the fault kinematic analysis and a plate flexure model (chapter 4.3) suggest that the Miocene to Pleistocene reactivation phases recorded at the Laminaria High most probably result from the oblique normal reactivation of the underlying Mesozoic fault planes. This episode is associated with the deformation of the subducting Australian plate. Based on these results three papers were published in international journals and two additional publications will be submitted. Additionally this research led to several communications in international conferences. Although the different workflows presented in this research have been primarily developed and used for the analysis of specific stratigraphic and structural geobodies on the Australian North West Shelf, similar integrated 3D seismic approaches will have applications to hydrocarbon exploration and production phases; for instance increasing the recognition of potential source rocks, secondary migration pathways, additional traps or reservoir breaching mechanisms. The new elements brought by this research further highlight that 3D seismic data contains a tremendous amount of hidden geological information waiting to be revealed and that will undoubtedly bring new insight into depositional systems, structural evolution and geohistory of the areas reputed being explored and constrained and other yet to be constrained. The further development of 3D texture attributes highlighting specific features of the seismic signal, the integration of quantitative analysis for stratigraphic and structural processes, the automation of the interpretation workflow as well as the formal definition of "seismo-morphologic" characteristics of a wide range of geobodies from various environments would represent challenging examples of continuation of this present research. The 21st century will most probably represent a transition period between fossil and other alternative energies. The next generation of seismic interpreters prospecting for hydrocarbon will undoubtedly face new challenges mostly due to the shortage of obvious and easy targets. They will probably have to keep on integrating techniques and geological processes in order to further capitalise the seismic data for new potentials definition. Imagination and creativity will most certainly be among the most important quality required from such geoscientists.

Restless bandits, linear programming relaxations and a primal-dual index heuristic

We develop a mathematical programming approach for the classicalPSPACE - hard restless bandit problem in stochastic optimization.We introduce a hierarchy of n (where n is the number of bandits)increasingly stronger linear programming relaxations, the lastof which is exact and corresponds to the (exponential size)formulation of the problem as a Markov decision chain, while theother relaxations provide bounds and are efficiently computed. Wealso propose a priority-index heuristic scheduling policy fromthe solution to the first-order relaxation, where the indices aredefined in terms of optimal dual variables. In this way wepropose a policy and a suboptimality guarantee. We report resultsof computational experiments that suggest that the proposedheuristic policy is nearly optimal. Moreover, the second-orderrelaxation is found to provide strong bounds on the optimalvalue.

Modelling state dependence and feedback effects between poverty, employment and parental home emancipation among European youth

Youth is one of the phases in the life-cycle when some of the most decisivelife transitions take place. Entering the labour market or leaving parentalhome are events with important consequences for the economic well-beingof young adults. In this paper, the interrelationship between employment,residential emancipation and poverty dynamics is studied for eight Europeancountries by means of an econometric model with feedback effects. Resultsshow that youth poverty genuine state dependence is positive and highly significant.Evidence proves there is a strong causal effect between poverty andleaving home in Scandinavian countries, however, time in economic hardshipdoes not last long. In Southern Europe, instead, youth tend to leave theirparental home much later in order to avoid falling into a poverty state that ismore persistent. Past poverty has negative consequences on the likelihood ofemployment.

On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledge

Research on judgment and decision making presents a confusing picture of human abilities. For example, much research has emphasized the dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics, and yet, other findings suggest that these can be highly effective. A further line of research has modeled judgment as resulting from as if linear models. This paper illuminates the distinctions in these approaches by providing a common analytical framework based on the central theoretical premise that understanding human performance requires specifying how characteristics of the decision rules people use interact with the demands of the tasks they face. Our work synthesizes the analytical tools of lens model research with novel methodology developed to specify the effectiveness of heuristics in different environments and allows direct comparisons between the different approaches. We illustrate with both theoretical analyses and simulations. We further link our results to the empirical literature by a meta-analysis of lens model studies and estimate both human andheuristic performance in the same tasks. Our results highlight the trade-off betweenlinear models and heuristics. Whereas the former are cognitively demanding, the latterare simple to use. However, they require knowledge and thus maps of when andwhich heuristic to employ.

Demand for pharmaceutical drugs: A choice modelling experiment

Despite the importance of supplier inducement and brand loyalty inthe drug purchasing process, little empirical evidence is to be foundwith regard to the influence that these factors exert on patients decisions. Under the new scenario of easier access to information,patients are becoming more demanding and even go as far asquestioning their physicians prescription. Furthermore, newregulation also encourages patients to adopt an active role in thedecision between brand-name and generic drugs. Using a statedpreference model based on a choice survey, I have found evidenceof how significant physicians prescription and pharmacists recommendation become throughout the drug purchase process and,to what extent, brand loyalty influences the final decision. Asfar as we are aware, this paper is the first to explicitlytake consumers preferences into account rather than focusingon the behavior of health professionals.

O Primal e o Dual na programação Linear

O tema da Programação Linear, com as suas particularizações do Problema dos Transportes e do Problema da Afectação de Recursos, é hoje estudado em cursos diversos onde uma disciplina de Investigação Operacional esteja presente. Trata-se, em última análise, de um problema de cálculo de extremos condicionados, seja de máximo ou de mínimo, que apresenta características muito particulares e de grande elegância simbólica. Também os Problemas dos Transportes e da Afectação de Recursos se podem resolver como problemas de Programação Linear, através do Algoritmo Simplex, embora seja preferível o recurso a algoritmos próprios, de muitíssimo maior simplicidade: o Algoritmo dos Transportes e o Algoritmo Húngaro, respectivamente. De molde a facilitar a compreensão do que realmente está em jogo, consideram-se aqui dois casos de determinação de extremos e de extremos condicionados, mas ao nível do final do ensino secundário.

Which is the optimal sampling strategy for habitat suitability modelling

Designing an efficient sampling strategy is of crucial importance for habitat suitability modelling. This paper compares four such strategies, namely, 'random', 'regular', 'proportional-stratified' and 'equal -stratified'- to investigate (1) how they affect prediction accuracy and (2) how sensitive they are to sample size. In order to compare them, a virtual species approach (Ecol. Model. 145 (2001) 111) in a real landscape, based on reliable data, was chosen. The distribution of the virtual species was sampled 300 times using each of the four strategies in four sample sizes. The sampled data were then fed into a GLM to make two types of prediction: (1) habitat suitability and (2) presence/ absence. Comparing the predictions to the known distribution of the virtual species allows model accuracy to be assessed. Habitat suitability predictions were assessed by Pearson's correlation coefficient and presence/absence predictions by Cohen's K agreement coefficient. The results show the 'regular' and 'equal-stratified' sampling strategies to be the most accurate and most robust. We propose the following characteristics to improve sample design: (1) increase sample size, (2) prefer systematic to random sampling and (3) include environmental information in the design'

Comparação entre os métodos da transeção linear e fotográfico na avaliação de cobertura vegetal morta, sob dois métodos de preparo, após a colheita da soja

A eficácia da cobertura vegetal morta no controle da erosão pode ser avaliada através de dois indicadores principais: a porcentagem de cobertura do solo pelos resíduos culturais e sua persistência sobre a superfície ao longo do tempo. O preparo do solo, por sua vez, pode exercer influência significativa sobre esses indicadores. O trabalho foi realizado no campo, no município de Eldorado do Sul, Depressão Central do Rio Grande do Sul. Avaliou-se a persistência da cobertura vegetal morta durante um período de pousio, que foi de maio de 1989 a abril de 1990, em sucessão à cultura da soja. Os resíduos dessa cultura foram manejados sem preparo, por escarificação e por gradagem. A porcentagem de cobertura do solo pelos resíduos culturais foi quantificada pelo método fotográfico e pelo da transeção linear. A cultura da soja produziu cobertura vegetal morta em pequena quantidade e de baixa durabilidade. A distribuição dos resíduos na superfície, sem preparo do solo, foi o tratamento que possibilitou melhor correlação (R²) entre os índices de cobertura obtidos pelos dois métodos testados. Nas áreas sob gradagem ou escarificação do solo, os índices de cobertura obtidos pelo método fotográfico foram superiores aos da transeção linear, enquanto, na área sem preparo do solo, houve similaridade entre os resultados dos dois métodos.

Trophic dynamics in the northern Humboldt Current system: insights from stable isotopes and stomach content analyses

The northern Humboldt Current system (NHCS) off Peru is one of the most productive world marine regions. It represents less than 0.1% of the world ocean surface but presently sustains about 10% of the world fish catch, with the Peruvian anchovy or anchoveta Engraulis ringens as emblematic fish resource. Compared with other eastern boundary upwelling systems, the higher fish productivity of the NHCS cannot be explained by a corresponding higher primary productivity. On another hand, the NHCS is the region where El Niño, and climate variability in general, is most notable. Also, surface oxygenated waters overlie an intense and extremely shallow Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ). In this context, the main objective of this study is to better understand the trophic flows in the NHCS using both stomach content and stable isotope analyses. The study focuses on a variety of organisms from low trophic levels such as zooplankton to top predators (seabirds and fur seals). The approach combines both long-term and specific studies on emblematic species such as anchoveta, and sardine Sardinops sagax and a more inclusive analysis considering the 'global' food web in the recent years (2008 – 2012) using stable isotope analysis. Revisiting anchovy and sardine we show that whereas phytoplankton largely dominated anchoveta and sardine diets in terms of numerical abundance, the carbon content of prey items indicated that zooplankton was by far the most important dietary component. Indeed for anchovy euphausiids contributed 67.5% of dietary carbon, followed by copepods (26.3%). Selecting the largest prey, the euphausiids, provide an energetic advantage for anchoveta in its ecosystem where oxygen depletion imposes strong metabolic constrain to pelagic fish. Sardine feed on smaller zooplankton than do anchoveta, with sardine diet consisting of smaller copepods and fewer euphausiids than anchoveta diet. Hence, trophic competition between sardine and anchovy in the northern Humboldt Current system is minimized by their partitioning of the zooplankton food resource based on prey size, as has been reported in other systems. These results suggest an ecological role for pelagic fish that challenges previous understanding of their position in the foodweb (zooplanktophagous instead of phytophagous), the functioning and the trophic models of the NHCS. Finally to obtain a more comprehensive vision of the relative trophic position of NHCS main components we used stable isotope analyses. For that purpose we analyzed the δ13C and δ15N stable isotope values of thirteen taxonomic categories collected off Peru from 2008 - 2011, i.e., zooplankton, fish, squids and air-breathing top predators. The δ15N isotope signature was strongly impacted by the species, the body length and the latitude. Along the Peruvian coast, the OMZ get more intense and shallow south of ~7.5ºS impacting the baseline nitrogen stable isotopes. Employing a linear mixed-effects modelling approach taking into account the latitudinal and body length effects, we provide a new vision of the relative trophic position of key ecosystem components. Also we confirm stomach content-based results on anchoveta Engraulis ringens and highlight the potential remarkable importance of an often neglected ecosystem component, the squat lobster Pleuroncodes monodon. Indeed, our results support the hypothesis according to which this species forage to some extent on fish eggs and larvae and can thus predate on the first life stages of exploited species. However, the δ13C values of these two species suggest that anchoveta and squat lobster do not exactly share the same habitat. This would potentially reduce some direct competition and/or predation.

Correlação linear e espacial entre o rendimento de grãos do feijoeiro e a resistência mecânica à penetração em um Latossolo Vermelho distrófico

A resistência mecânica à penetração apresentada pelo solo exerce grande influência sobre o desenvolvimento vegetal, uma vez que o crescimento das raízes, assim como o rendimento das culturas, varia de forma inversamente proporcional ao seu valor. No ano agrícola de 2001/2002, na Fazenda Experimental de Ensino e Pesquisa da Faculdade de Engenharia/UNESP - Campus de Ilha Solteira, foram analisados o rendimento de grãos do feijoeiro (PG) e a resistência mecânica à penetração (R), de um Latossolo Vermelho distrófico. O objetivo foi apurar diretrizes relacionadas com o aumento da produtividade agrícola em questão, estudando a correlação linear e a espacial entre a PG e a R. Foi instalada uma rede geoestatística para a coleta dos dados do solo e da planta, estabelecida com espaçamentos de 5 x 5 m e 2,5 x 2,5 m, que continham 120 pontos amostrais distribuídos numa área de 1.875 m². A correlação linear entre a PG e a R foi praticamente nula, uma vez que, dependendo das profundidades estudadas do solo, apresentou coeficientes de correlação (r) menores do que 0,20. A análise geoestatística apresentou boa estrutura de dependência espacial, tanto para a PG quanto para a R, quando analisadas isoladamente. Entretanto, a análise espacial conjunta de tais atributos apresentou-se inconsistente. Assim, com o aumento da resistência mecânica à penetração, em determinada região do solo ocorreu ora aumento, ora diminuição do rendimento de grãos do feijoeiro.

Statistical analysis and modelling of weather radar beam propagation conditions in the Po Valley (Italy)

Ground clutter caused by anomalous propagation (anaprop) can affect seriously radar rain rate estimates, particularly in fully automatic radar processing systems, and, if not filtered, can produce frequent false alarms. A statistical study of anomalous propagation detected from two operational C-band radars in the northern Italian region of Emilia Romagna is discussed, paying particular attention to its diurnal and seasonal variability. The analysis shows a high incidence of anaprop in summer, mainly in the morning and evening, due to the humid and hot summer climate of the Po Valley, particularly in the coastal zone. Thereafter, a comparison between different techniques and datasets to retrieve the vertical profile of the refractive index gradient in the boundary layer is also presented. In particular, their capability to detect anomalous propagation conditions is compared. Furthermore, beam path trajectories are simulated using a multilayer ray-tracing model and the influence of the propagation conditions on the beam trajectory and shape is examined. High resolution radiosounding data are identified as the best available dataset to reproduce accurately the local propagation conditions, while lower resolution standard TEMP data suffers from interpolation degradation and Numerical Weather Prediction model data (Lokal Model) are able to retrieve a tendency to superrefraction but not to detect ducting conditions. Observing the ray tracing of the centre, lower and upper limits of the radar antenna 3-dB half-power main beam lobe it is concluded that ducting layers produce a change in the measured volume and in the power distribution that can lead to an additional error in the reflectivity estimate and, subsequently, in the estimated rainfall rate.

Modelling of weather radar echoes from anomalous propagation using a hybrid parabolic equation method and NWP model data

Contamination of weather radar echoes by anomalous propagation (anaprop) mechanisms remains a serious issue in quality control of radar precipitation estimates. Although significant progress has been made identifying clutter due to anaprop there is no unique method that solves the question of data reliability without removing genuine data. The work described here relates to the development of a software application that uses a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to obtain the temperature, humidity and pressure fields to calculate the three dimensional structure of the atmospheric refractive index structure, from which a physically based prediction of the incidence of clutter can be made. This technique can be used in conjunction with existing methods for clutter removal by modifying parameters of detectors or filters according to the physical evidence for anomalous propagation conditions. The parabolic equation method (PEM) is a well established technique for solving the equations for beam propagation in a non-uniformly stratified atmosphere, but although intrinsically very efficient, is not sufficiently fast to be practicable for near real-time modelling of clutter over the entire area observed by a typical weather radar. We demonstrate a fast hybrid PEM technique that is capable of providing acceptable results in conjunction with a high-resolution terrain elevation model, using a standard desktop personal computer. We discuss the performance of the method and approaches for the improvement of the model profiles in the lowest levels of the troposphere.