972 resultados para Forecast densities


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Learning automata are adaptive decision making devices that are found useful in a variety of machine learning and pattern recognition applications. Although most learning automata methods deal with the case of finitely many actions for the automaton, there are also models of continuous-action-set learning automata (CALA). A team of such CALA can be useful in stochastic optimization problems where one has access only to noise-corrupted values of the objective function. In this paper, we present a novel formulation for noise-tolerant learning of linear classifiers using a CALA team. We consider the general case of nonuniform noise, where the probability that the class label of an example is wrong may be a function of the feature vector of the example. The objective is to learn the underlying separating hyperplane given only such noisy examples. We present an algorithm employing a team of CALA and prove, under some conditions on the class conditional densities, that the algorithm achieves noise-tolerant learning as long as the probability of wrong label for any example is less than 0.5. We also present some empirical results to illustrate the effectiveness of the algorithm.

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In lake ecosystems, both fish and invertebrate predators have dramatic effects on their prey communities. Fish predation selects large cladocerans while invertebrate predators prefer prey of smaller size. Since invertebrate predators are the preferred food items for fish, their occurrence at high densities is often connected with the absence or low number of fish. It is generally believed that invertebrate predators can play a significant role only if the density of planktivorous fish is low. However, in eutrophic clay-turbid Lake Hiidenvesi (southern Finland), a dense population of predatory Chaoborus flavicans larvae coexists with an abundant fish population. The population covers the stratifying area of the lake and attains a maximum population density of 23000 ind. m-2. This thesis aims to clarify the effects of Chaoborus flavicans on the zooplankton community and the environmental factors facilitating the coexistence of fish and invertebrate predators. In the stratifying area of Lake Hiidenvesi, the seasonal succession of cladocerans was exceptional. The spring biomass peak of cladocerans was missing and the highest biomass occurred in midsummer. In early summer, the consumption rate by chaoborids clearly exceeded the production rate of cladocerans and each year the biomass peak of cladocerans coincided with the minimum chaoborid density. In contrast, consumption by fish was very low and each study year cladocerans attained maximum biomass simultaneously with the highest consumption by smelt (Osmerus eperlanus). The results indicated that Chaoborus flavicans was the main predator of cladocerans in the stratifying area of Lake Hiidenvesi. The clay turbidity strongly contributed to the coexistence of chaoborids and smelt at high densities. Turbidity exceeding 30 NTU combined with light intensity below 0.1 μE m-2 s-1provides an efficient daytime refuge for chaoborids, but turbidity alone is not an adequate refuge unless combined with low light intensity. In the non-stratifying shallow basins of Lake Hiidenvesi, light intensity exceeds this level during summer days at the bottom of the lake, preventing Chaoborus forming a dense population in the shallow parts of the lake. Chaoborus can be successful particularly in deep, clay-turbid lakes where they can remain high in the water column close to their epilimnetic prey. Suspended clay alters the trophic interactions by weakening the link between fish and Chaoborus, which in turn strengthens the effect of Chaoborus predation on crustacean zooplankton. Since food web management largely relies on manipulations of fish stocks and the cascading effects of such actions, the validity of the method in deep clay-turbid lakes may be questioned.

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A direct borohydride fuel cell (DBFC) employing a poly (vinyl alcohol)hydrogel membrane electrolyte (PHME) is reported. The DBFC employs an AB(5) Misch metal alloy as anode and a goldplated stainless steel mesh as cathode in conjunction with aqueous alkaline solution of sodium borohydride as fuel and aqueous acidified solution of hydrogen peroxide as oxidant. Room temperature performances of the PHME-based DBFC in respect of peak power outputs; ex-situ cross-over of oxidant, fuel,anolyte and catholyte across the membrane electrolytes; utilization efficiencies of fuel and oxidant, as also cell performance durability are compared with a similar DBFC employing a NafionA (R)-117 membrane electrolyte (NME). Peak power densities of similar to 30 and similar to 40 mW cm(-2) are observed for the DBFCs with PHME and NME, respectively. The crossover of NaBH4 across both the membranes has been found to be very low. The utilization efficiencies of NaBH4 and H2O2 are found to be similar to 24 and similar to 59%, respectively for the PHME-based DBFC; similar to 18 and similar to 62%, respectively for the NME-based DBFC. The PHME and NME-based DBFCs exhibit operational cell potentials of similar to 1 center dot 2 and similar to 1 center dot 4 V, respectively at a load current density of 10 mA cm(-2) for similar to 100 h.

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Ferrous iron bio-oxidation by Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans immobilized on polyurethane foam was investigated. Cells were immobilized on foams by placing them in a growth environment and fully bacterially activated polyurethane foams (BAPUFs) were prepared by serial subculturing in batches with partially bacterially activated foam (pBAPUFs). The dependence of foam density on cell immobilization process, the effect of pH and BAPUF loading on ferrous oxidation were studied to choose operating parameters for continuous operations. With an objective to have high cell densities both in foam and the liquid phase, pretreated foams of density 50 kg/m3 as cell support and ferrous oxidation at pH 1.5 to moderate the ferric precipitation were preferred. A novel basket-type bioreactor for continuous ferrous iron oxidation, which features a multiple effect of stirred tank in combination with recirculation, was designed and operated. The results were compared with that of a free cell and a sheet-type foam immobilized reactors. A fivefold increase in ferric iron productivity at 33.02 g/h/L of free volume in foam was achieved using basket-type bioreactor when compared to a free cell continuous system. A mathematical model for ferrous iron oxidation by Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans cells immobilized on polyurethane foam was developed with cell growth in foam accounted by an effectiveness factor. The basic parameters of simulation were estimated using the experimental data on free cell growth as well as from cell attachment to foam under nongrowing conditions. The model predicted the phase of both oxidation of ferrous in shake flasks by pBAPUFs as well as by fully activated BAPUFs for different cell loadings in foam. Model for stirred tank basket bioreactor predicted within 5% both transient and steady state of the experiments closely for the simulated dilution rates. Bio-oxidation at high Fe2+ concentrations were simulated with experiments when substrate and product inhibition coefficients were factored into cell growth kinetics.

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Climate change contributes directly or indirectly to changes in species distributions, and there is very high confidence that recent climate warming is already affecting ecosystems. The Arctic has already experienced the greatest regional warming in recent decades, and the trend is continuing. However, studies on the northern ecosystems are scarce compared to more southerly regions. Better understanding of the past and present environmental change is needed to be able to forecast the future. Multivariate methods were used to explore the distributional patterns of chironomids in 50 shallow (≤ 10m) lakes in relation to 24 variables determined in northern Fennoscandia at the ecotonal area from the boreal forest in the south to the orohemiarctic zone in the north. Highest taxon richness was noted at middle elevations around 400 m a.s.l. Significantly lower values were observed from cold lakes situated in the tundra zone. Lake water alkalinity had the strongest positive correlation with the taxon richness. Many taxa had preference for lakes either on tundra area or forested area. The variation in the chironomid abundance data was best correlated with sediment organic content (LOI), lake water total organic carbon content, pH and air temperature, with LOI being the strongest variable. Three major lake groups were separated on the basis of their chironomid assemblages: (i) small and shallow organic-rich lakes, (ii) large and base-rich lakes, and (iii) cold and clear oligotrophic tundra lakes. Environmental variables best discriminating the lake groups were LOI, taxon richness, and Mg. When repeated, this kind of an approach could be useful and efficient in monitoring the effects of global change on species ranges. Many species of fast spreading insects, including chironomids, show a remarkable ability to track environmental changes. Based on this ability, past environmental conditions have been reconstructed using their chitinous remains in the lake sediment profiles. In order to study the Holocene environmental history of subarctic aquatic systems, and quantitatively reconstruct the past temperatures at or near the treeline, long sediment cores covering the last 10000 years (the Holocene) were collected from three lakes. Lower temperature values than expected based on the presence of pine in the catchment during the mid-Holocene were reconstructed from a lake with great water volume and depth. The lake provided thermal refuge for profundal, cold adapted taxa during the warm period. In a shallow lake, the decrease in the reconstructed temperatures during the late Holocene may reflect the indirect response of the midges to climate change through, e.g., pH change. The results from three lakes indicated that the response of chironomids to climate have been more or less indirect. However, concurrent shifts in assemblages of chironomids and vegetation in two lakes during the Holocene time period indicated that the midges together with the terrestrial vegetation had responded to the same ultimate cause, which most likely was the Holocene climate change. This was also supported by the similarity in the long-term trends in faunal succession for the chironomid assemblages in several lakes in the area. In northern Finnish Lapland the distribution of chironomids were significantly correlated with physical and limnological factors that are most likely to change as a result of future climate change. The indirect and individualistic response of aquatic systems, as reconstructed using the chironomid assemblages, to the climate change in the past suggests that in the future, the lake ecosystems in the north do not respond in one predictable way to the global climate change. Lakes in the north may respond to global climate change in various ways that are dependent on the initial characters of the catchment area and the lake.

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The modern diet has become highly sweetened, resulting in unprecedented levels of sugar consumption, particularly among adolescents. While chronic long-term sugar intake is known to contribute to the development of metabolic disorders including obesity and type II diabetes, little is known regarding the direct consequences of long-term, binge-like sugar consumption on the brain. Because sugar can cause the release of dopamine in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) similarly to drugs of abuse, we investigated changes in the morphology of neurons in this brain region following short- (4 weeks) and long-term (12 weeks) binge-like sucrose consumption using an intermittent two-bottle choice paradigm. We used Golgi-Cox staining to impregnate medium spiny neurons (MSNs) from the NAc core and shell of short- and long-term sucrose consuming rats and compared these to age-matched water controls. We show that prolonged binge-like sucrose consumption significantly decreased the total dendritic length of NAc shell MSNs compared to age-matched control rats. We also found that the restructuring of these neurons resulted primarily from reduced distal dendritic complexity. Conversely, we observed increased spine densities at the distal branch orders of NAc shell MSNs from long-term sucrose consuming rats. Combined, these results highlight the neuronal effects of prolonged binge-like intake of sucrose on NAc shell MSN morphology.

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This article is concerned with a study on the energy absorption behavior of polyurethane (PU) foams such as flexible high resilience (HR), flexible viscoelastic (VE) and semi-rigid (SR) foams as a function of the overall foam density. Foam samples were prepared in the form of cubes by mixing appropriate polyol and isocyanate compounds produced by Huntsman International India Pvt. Ltd. in varying proportions leading to a range of densities for each type of foam. The cubical samples were tested under compressive load in a standard UTM. Based on the measured load-displacement behaviors, variations of peak load and energy-absorption attributes with respect to density are plotted for each type of foam and the possible existence of an optimum foam density is shown.

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Magnetotransport measurements in pulsed fields up to 15 T have been performed on mercury cadmium telluride (Hg1-xCdxTe, x similar to 0.2) bulk as well as liquid phase epitaxially grown samples to obtain the resistivity and conductivity tensors in the temperature range 220-300 K. Mobilities and densities of various carriers participating in conduction have been extracted using both conventional multicarrier fitting (MCF) and mobility spectrum analysis. The fits to experimental data, particularly at the highest magnetic fields, were substantially improved when MCF is applied to minimize errors simultaneously on both resistivity and conductivity tensors. The semiclassical Boltzmann transport equation has been solved without using adjustable parameters by incorporating the following scattering mechanisms to fit the mobility: ionized impurity, polar and nonpolar optical phonons, acoustic deformation potential, and alloy disorder. Compared to previous estimates based on the relaxation time approximation with outscattering only, polar optical scattering and ionized impurity scattering limited mobilities are shown to be larger due to the correct incorporation of the inscattering term taking into account the overlap integrals in the valence band.

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This paper presents a flexible and integrated planning tool for active distribution network to maximise the benefits of having high level s of renewables, customer engagement, and new technology implementations. The tool has two main processing parts: “optimisation” and “forecast”. The “optimization” part is an automated and integrated planning framework to optimize the net present value (NPV) of investment strategy for electric distribution network augmentation over large areas and long planning horizons (e.g. 5 to 20 years) based on a modified particle swarm optimization (MPSO). The “forecast” is a flexible agent-based framework to produce load duration curves (LDCs) of load forecasts for different levels of customer engagement, energy storage controls, and electric vehicles (EVs). In addition, “forecast” connects the existing databases of utility to the proposed tool as well as outputs the load profiles and network plan in Google Earth. This integrated tool enables different divisions within a utility to analyze their programs and options in a single platform using comprehensive information.

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Rammed earth walls are low carbon emission and energy efficient alternatives to load bearing walls. Large numbers of rammed earth buildings have been constructed in the recent past across the globe. This paper is focused on embodied energy in cement stabilised rammed earth (CSRE) walls. Influence of soil grading, density and cement content on compaction energy input has been monitored. A comparison between energy content of cement and energy in transportation of materials, with that of the actual energy input during rammed earth compaction in the actual field conditions and the laboratory has been made. Major conclusions of the investigations are (a) compaction energy increases with increase in clay fraction of the soil mix and it is sensitive to density of the CSRE wall, (b) compaction energy varies between 0.033 MJ/m(3) and 0.36 MJ/m(3) for the range of densities and cement contents attempted, (c) energy expenditure in the compaction process is negligible when compared to energy content of the cement and (d) total embodied energy in CSRE walls increases linearly with the increase in cement content and is in the range of 0.4-0.5 GJ/m(3) for cement content in the rage of 6-8%. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The objective of these studies was to evaluate possible airway inflammation and remodeling at the bronchial level in cross-country skiers without a prior diagnosis of asthma, and relate the findings to patients with mild chronic asthma and patients with newly diagnosed asthma. We also studied the association of airway inflammatory changes and bronchial hyperresponsivess (BHR), and treatment effects in cross-country skiers and in patients with newly diagnosed asthma. Bronchial biopsies were obtained from the subjects by flexible bronchoscopy, and the inflammatory cells (eosinophils, mast cells, T-lymphocytes, macrophages, and neutrophils) were identified by immunohistochemistry. Tenascin (Tn) immunoreactivity in the bronchial basement membrane (BM) was identified by immunofluorescence staining. Lung function was measured with spirometry, and BHR was assessed by methacholine (skiers) or histamine (asthmatics) challenges. Skiers with BHR and asthma-like symptoms were recruited to a drug-intervention study. Skiers were given treatment (22 weeks) with placebo or budesonide (400 µg bid). Patients with newly diagnosed asthma were given treatment for 16 weeks with placebo, salmeterol (SLM) (50 µg bid), fluticasone propionate (FP) (250 µg bid), or disodium cromoglicate (DSCG) (5 mg qid). Bronchial biopsies were obtained at baseline and at the end of the treatment period. In the skiers a distinct airway inflammation was evident. In their bronchial biopsy specimens, T-lymphocyte, macrophage, and eosinophil counts were, respectively greater by 43-fold (P<0.001), 26-fold (P<0.001, and 2-fold (P<0.001) in skiers, and by 70-fold (p>0.001), 63-fold (P<0.001), and 8-fold (P<0.001) in asthmatic subjects than in controls. In skiers, neutrophil counts were more than 2-fold greater than in asthmatic subjects (P<0.05). Tn expression was higher in skiers than in controls and lower in skiers than in mild asthmatics. No significant changes were seen between skiers with or without BHR in the inflammatory cell counts or Tn expression. Treatment with inhaled budesonide did not attenuate asthma-like symptoms, the inflammatory cell infiltration, or BM Tn expression in the skiers. In newly diagnosed asthmatic patients, SLM, FP, and DSCG reduced asthma symptoms, and need for rescue medication (P<0.04). BHR was reduced by doubling doses 2.78, 5.22, and 1.35 respectively (all P<0.05). SLM and placebo had no effect on cell counts or Tn expression. FP and DSCG reduced eosinophil counts in the bronchial biopsy specimens (P<0.02 and <0.048, respectively). No significant change in tenascin expression appeared in any treatment group. Regarding to atopy, no significant differences existed in the inflammatory cell counts in the bronchial mucosa of subjects with newly diagnosed asthma or in elite cross country skiers. Tn expression in the BM was significantly higher in atopic asthma than in those with nonatopic asthma. Airway inflammation occurred in elite cross-country skiers with and without respiratory symptoms or BHR. Their inflammatory cell pattern differed from that in asthma. Infiltration with eosinophils, macrophages, and mast cells was milder, but lymphocyte counts did not differ from counts in asthmatic airways. Neutrophilic infiltration was more extensive in skiers than in asthmatics. Remodeling took place in the skiers’ airways, as reflected by increased expression of BM tenascin These inflammatory changes and Tn expression may be caused by prolonged exposure of the lower airways to inadequately humidified cold air. In skiers inflammatory changes and remodeling were not reversed with anti-inflammatory treatment. In contrast, in patients with newly diagnosed asthma, anti-inflammatory treatment did attenuate eosinophilic inflammation in the bronchial mucosa. In skiers, anti-inflammatory treatment did not attenuate BHR as it did in asthmatic patients. The BHR in skiers was attenuated spontaneously during placebo treatment, with no difference from budesonide treatment. Lower training intensity during the treatment period may explain this spontaneous decrease in BHR. The origin of BHR probably differs in skiers and in asthmatics. No significant association between BHR and inflammatory cell counts or between BHR and Tn expression was evident in cross-country skiers or asthmatic subjects. Airway remodeling differed between atopic and nonatopic asthma. As opposed to nonatopic asthma, Tn expression was higher in atopic asthma and is related to inflammatory cell densities.

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Although BaZr 0.8Y 0.2O 3-δ(BZY) possesses large bulk proton conductivity and excellent chemical stability, its poor sinterability and grain boundaries block proton conduction. In this work, the effect of Ca as a co-dopant and as a sintering aid (as CaO), on the sinterability, proton conductivity, and fuel cell performance of BZY was investigated. The addition of 4 mol% CaO significantly improved the BZY sinterability: BZY pellets with densities of 92.7% and 97.5% with respect to the theoretical density were obtained after sintering at 1500°C and 1600°C, respectively. The improved BZY sinterability by CaO addition resulted also in a large proton conductivity; at 600°C, the total conductivity of BZY-CaO was 2.14 × 10 -3 S/cm, in wet Ar. Anode-supported fuel cells with 25 μm-thick BZY-CaO electrolyte membranes were fabricated by a dual-layer co-firing technique. The peak power density of the fuel cell with a BZY-Ni/BZY-4CaO/BZY-LSCF (La 0.6Sr 0.4Fe 0.8Co 0.2O 3-δ) configuration was 141 mW/cm 2 at 700°C, several times larger than the reported values of BZY electrolyte membrane fuel cells sintered with the addition of CuO or ZnO, demonstrating promising features for practical fuel cell applications.

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Since 2007, close collaboration between the Learning and Teaching Unit’s Academic Quality and Standards team and the Department of Reporting and Analysis’ Business Objects team resulted in a generational approach to reporting where QUT established a place of trust. This place of trust is where data owners are confident in date storage, data integrity, reported and shared. While the role of the Department of Reporting and Analysis focused on the data warehouse, data security and publication of reports, the Academic Quality and Standards team focused on the application of learning analytics to solve academic research questions and improve student learning. Addressing questions such as: • Are all students who leave course ABC academically challenged? • Do the students who leave course XYZ stay within the faculty, university or leave? • When students withdraw from a unit do they stay enrolled on full or part load or leave? • If students enter through a particular pathway, what is their experience in comparison to other pathways? • With five years historic reporting, can a two-year predictive forecast provide any insight? In answering these questions, the Academic Quality and Standards team then developed prototype data visualisation through curriculum conversations with academic staff. Where these enquiries were applicable more broadly this information would be brought into the standardised reporting for the benefit of the whole institution. At QUT an annual report to the executive committees allows all stakeholders to record the performance and outcomes of all courses in a snapshot in time or use this live report at any point during the year. This approach to learning analytics was awarded the Awarded 2014 ATEM/Campus Review Best Practice Awards in Tertiary Education Management for The Unipromo Award for Excellence in Information Technology Management.

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Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is the sixth most common cancer worldwide. Well-known risk factors include tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption. Overall survival has improved, but is still low especially in developing countries. One reason for this is the often advanced stage of the disease at the time of diagnosis, but also lack of reliable prognostic tools to enable individualized patient treatment to improve outcome. To date, the TNM classification still serves as the best disease evaluation criterion, although it does not take into account the molecular basis of the tumor. The need for surrogate molecular markers for more accurate disease prediction has increased research interests in this field. We investigated the prevalence, physical status, and viral load of human papillomavirus (HPV) in HNSCC to determine the impact of HPV on head and neck carcinogenesis. The prevalence and genotyping of HPV were assessed with an SPF10 PCR microtiter plate-based hybridization assay (DEIA), followed by a line probe-based genotyping assay. More than half of the patients had HPV DNA in their tumor specimens. Oncogenic HPV-16 was the most common type, and coinfections with other oncogenic and benign associated types also existed. HPV-16 viral load was unevenly distributed among different tumor sites; the tonsils harbored significantly greater amounts of virus than other sites. Episomal location of HPV-16 was associated with large tumors, and both integrated and mixed forms of viral DNA were detected. In this series, we could not show that the presence of HPV DNA correlated with survival. In addition, we investigated the prevalence and genotype of HPV in laryngeal carcinoma patients in a prospective Nordic multicenter study based on fresh-frozen laryngeal tumor samples to determine whether the tumors were HPV-associated. These patients were also examined and interviewed at diagnosis for known risk factors, such as tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption, and for several other habituations to elucidate their effects on patient survival. HPV analysis was performed with the same protocols as in the first study. Only 4% of the specimens harbored HPV DNA. Heavy drinking was associated with poor survival. Heavy drinking patients were also younger than nonheavy drinkers and had a more advanced stage of disease at diagnosis. Heavy drinkers had worse oral hygiene than nonheavy drinkers; however, poor oral hygiene did not have prognostic significance. History of chronic laryngitis, gastroesophageal reflux disease, and orogenital sex contacts were rare in this series. To clarify why vocal cord carcinomas seldom metastasize, we determined tumor lymph vessel (LVD) and blood vessel (BVD) densities in HNSCC patients. We used a novel lymphatic vessel endothelial marker (LYVE-1 antibody) to locate the lymphatic vessels in HNSCC samples and CD31 to detect the blood microvessels. We found carcinomas of the vocal cords to harbor less lymphatic and blood microvessels than carcinomas arising from sites other than vocal cords. The lymphatic and blood microvessel densities did not correlate with tumor size. High BVD was strongly correlated with high LVD. Neither BVD nor LVD showed any association with survival in our series. The immune system plays an important role in tumorigenesis, as neoplastic cells have to escape the cytotoxic lymphocytes in order to survive. Several candidate HLA class II alleles have been reported to be prognostic in cervical carcinomas, an epithelial malignancy resembling HNSCC. These alleles may have an impact on head and neck carcinomas as well. We determined HLA-DRB1* and -DQB1* alleles in HNSCC patients. Healthy organ donors served as controls. The Inno-LiPA reverse dot-blot kit was used to identify alleles in patient samples. No single haplotype was found to be predictive of either the risk for head and neck cancer, or the clinical course of the disease. However, alleles observed to be prognostic in cervical carcinomas showed a similar tendency in our series. DRB1*03 was associated with node-negative disease at diagnosis. DRB1*08 and DRB1*13 were associated with early-stage disease; DRB1*04 had a lower risk for tumor relapse; and DQB1*03 and DQB1*0502 were more frequent in controls than in patients. However, these associations reached only borderline significance in our HNSCC patients.

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Many biological environments are crowded by macromolecules, organelles and cells which can impede the transport of other cells and molecules. Previous studies have sought to describe these effects using either random walk models or fractional order diffusion equations. Here we examine the transport of both a single agent and a population of agents through an environment containing obstacles of varying size and shape, whose relative densities are drawn from a specified distribution. Our simulation results for a single agent indicate that smaller obstacles are more effective at retarding transport than larger obstacles; these findings are consistent with our simulations of the collective motion of populations of agents. In an attempt to explore whether these kinds of stochastic random walk simulations can be described using a fractional order diffusion equation framework, we calibrate the solution of such a differential equation to our averaged agent density information. Our approach suggests that these kinds of commonly used differential equation models ought to be used with care since we are unable to match the solution of a fractional order diffusion equation to our data in a consistent fashion over a finite time period.