Fuzzy modeling of broiler performance, raised from 1 to 21 days, subject to heat stress

ABSTRACT Given the need to obtain systems to better control broiler production environment, we performed an experiment with broilers from 1 to 21 days, which were submitted to different intensities and air temperature durations in conditioned wind tunnels and the results were used for validation of afuzzy model. The model was developed using as input variables: duration of heat stress (days), dry bulb air temperature (°C) and as output variable: feed intake (g) weight gain (g) and feed conversion (g.g-1). The inference method used was Mamdani, 20 rules have been prepared and the defuzzification technique used was the Center of Gravity. A satisfactory efficiency in determining productive responses is evidenced in the results obtained in the model simulation, when compared with the experimental data, where R2 values ​​calculated for feed intake, weight gain and feed conversion were 0.998, 0.981 and 0.980, respectively.

Testing Futures Market Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation: Evidence from Futures and Options on RTS

This study investigates futures market efficiency and optimal hedge ratio estimation. First, cointegration between spot and futures prices is studied using Johansen method, with two different model specifications. If prices are found cointegrated, restrictions on cointegrating vector and adjustment coefficients are imposed, to account for unbiasedness, weak exogeneity and prediction hypothesis. Second, optimal hedge ratios are estimated using static OLS, and time-varying DVEC and CCC models. In-sample and out-of-sample results for one, two and five period ahead are reported. The futures used in thesis are RTS index, EUR/RUB exchange rate and Brent oil, traded in Futures and options on RTS.(FORTS) For in-sample period, data points were acquired from start of trading of each futures contract, RTS index from August 2005, EUR/RUB exchange rate March 2009 and Brent oil October 2008, lasting till end of May 2011. Out-of-sample period covers start of June 2011, till end of December 2011. Our results indicate that all three asset pairs, spot and futures, are cointegrated. We found RTS index futures to be unbiased predictor of spot price, mixed evidence for exchange rate, and for Brent oil futures unbiasedness was not supported. Weak exogeneity results for all pairs indicated spot price to lead in price discovery process. Prediction hypothesis, unbiasedness and weak exogeneity of futures, was rejected for all asset pairs. Variance reduction results varied between assets, in-sample in range of 40-85 percent and out-of sample in range of 40-96 percent. Differences between models were found small, except for Brent oil in which OLS clearly dominated. Out-of-sample results indicated exceptionally high variance reduction for RTS index, approximately 95 percent.

Monte Carlo Hypothesis Testing with The Sharpe Ratio

The purpose of this master thesis was to perform simulations that involve use of random number while testing hypotheses especially on two samples populations being compared weather by their means, variances or Sharpe ratios. Specifically, we simulated some well known distributions by Matlab and check out the accuracy of an hypothesis testing. Furthermore, we went deeper and check what could happen once the bootstrapping method as described by Effrons is applied on the simulated data. In addition to that, one well known RobustSharpe hypothesis testing stated in the paper of Ledoit and Wolf was applied to measure the statistical significance performance between two investment founds basing on testing weather there is a statistically significant difference between their Sharpe Ratios or not. We collected many literatures about our topic and perform by Matlab many simulated random numbers as possible to put out our purpose; As results we come out with a good understanding that testing are not always accurate; for instance while testing weather two normal distributed random vectors come from the same normal distribution. The Jacque-Berra test for normality showed that for the normal random vector r1 and r2, only 94,7% and 95,7% respectively are coming from normal distribution in contrast 5,3% and 4,3% failed to shown the truth already known; but when we introduce the bootstrapping methods by Effrons while estimating pvalues where the hypothesis decision is based, the accuracy of the test was 100% successful. From the above results the reports showed that bootstrapping methods while testing or estimating some statistics should always considered because at most cases the outcome are accurate and errors are minimized in the computation. Also the RobustSharpe test which is known to use one of the bootstrapping methods, studentised one, were applied first on different simulated data including distribution of many kind and different shape secondly, on real data, Hedge and Mutual funds. The test performed quite well to agree with the existence of statistical significance difference between their Sharpe ratios as described in the paper of Ledoit andWolf.

Terapia nutricional precoce no trauma: após o A, B, C, D, E, a importância do F (FEED)

Um número significativo de mortes no trauma ocorre dias a semanas após a injúria inicial, sendo causado por infecções e insuficiência orgânica, relacionadas a hipercatabolismo e consequente desnutrição proteica aguda. A terapia nutricional deve ser planejada e incluída com as demais condutas de reanimação para pacientes politraumatizados e grandes queimados. A rápida aquisição de uma via para suporte nutricional é importante para inicio da terapia nutricional precoce em até 48 horas do atendimento. A via enteral é a opção preferencial no pós-operatório de pacientes traumatizado mas a via parenteral deve ser prescrita quando a enteral está contraindicada ou insuficiente. Após as medidas iniciais ditadas pelo ATLS, sintetizadas em A (air), B (breath), C (circulation), D (disability) e E (exposure), nós incluímos a letra F (feed) para enfatizar a importância do atendimento nutricional precoce no trauma.

Ethological activities, ruminal parameters and weight gain of calves supplemented with different amounts of sodium chloride

The daily weight gain, behavioral activities (grazing, ruminating and water consumption) and the number of rumen protozoa, pH, NH3, and the osmolarity of rumen fluid was evaluated for four groups of six calves HPB/Zebu submitted to daily intake of 15, 30, 60 and 90g of NaCl during 135 days (9th Jan. to 24th May 2008).Throughout the experimental period the calves were in perfect health condition and did not show any signs suggestive of chronic sodium poisoning. There was no significant difference in average daily gain of the calves as the intake of NaCl increased. No significant behavioral changes were observed in the activities of grazing and rumination. However, there was a noticeable change in the frequency of water consumption in the calves that ingested 90g/d of NaCl; they went more often to the trough and drank more water than the group that ingested only 15g sodium chloride/d. The osmolarity of ruminal liquid was higher in the group of calves fed 90g of NaCl/d. The pH, NH3 concentration and number of rumen protozoa was within the normal range.

Influence of tail biting on weight gain, lesions and condemnations at slaughter of finishing pigs

The present study assessed the association of tail-biting lesions in finishing pigs with weight gain, occurrence of locomotion or respiratory disorders and abscesses during finishing period, and carcass condemnation at slaughter. The study was carried out on 4 different farms. For each animal with a tail biting lesion, two control pigs were selected. The total number of animals in the study was 312, with 104 of them being tail-bitten. Tail lesions were classified according to the degree of severity into four scores: score 0 -normal tail withou lesion; score 1-3 - increasing lesion severity, and score 4 - healed lesions. Overall, the occurrence of severe tail lesions (score 3) varied from 55 to 73% of tail-bitten pigs among farms. On all farms, healing of tail lesions was observed in 95% to 100% of the animals at the evaluation performed within 41-43 days after the commencement of the study. In two out of the four evaluated farms, pigs with score of 3 showed lower weight gain (P<0.05) compared with score 0 pigs. Before slaughter, the occurrence of locomotion problems and nodules/abscesses was associated (P<0.05) with the presence of tail-biting lesions. At slaughter, tail-biting lesions were associated (P<0.05) with the presence of abscesses, lung lesions (pleuritis and embolic pneumonia) or arthritis in carcasses. Carcass condemnation was associated with the presence of tail-biting lesions (P<0.05). Overall, carcass condemnation rate was 21.4%, of which animals with tail-biting lesions accounted for 66.7% of condemnations. Among the animals diagnosed with cannibalism at farm level, only two had not healed their lesions at slaughter. The fact that there were a lot of carcass condemnations, despite the fact that tail-bitten animals had no more active lesions, suggests that different situations may be observed between the field and slaughter, reinforcing the need to analyze pigs both at farm and slaughter to allow proper assessment of losses related to tail biting. Collectively, the observations of the present study show that complications associated with tail-biting found in slaughterhouses are probably underestimating field prevalence.

Multi-axis solutions in packaging machines in Europe

The objective of this thesis was to examine the potential of multi-axis solutions in packaging machines produced in Europe. The definition of a multi-axis solution in this study is a construction that uses a common DC bus power supply for different amplifiers running the axes and the intelligence is centralized into one unit. The cost structure of a packaging machine was gained from an automation research, which divided the machines according to automation categories. The automation categories were then further divided into different sub-components by evaluating the ratio of multi-axis solutions compared to other automation components in packaging machines. A global motion control study was used for further information. With the help of the ratio, an estimation of the potential of multi-axis solutions in each country and packaging machine sector was completed. In addition to the research, a specific questionnaire was sent to five companies to gain information about the present situation and possible trends in packaging machinery. The greatest potential markets are in Germany and Italy, which are also the largest producers of packaging machinery in Europe. The greatest growth in the next few years will be seen in Turkey where the annual growth rate equals the general machinery production rate in Asia. The greatest market potential of the Nordic countries is found in Sweden in 35th position on the list. According to the interviews, motion control products in packaging machines will retain their current power levels, as well as the number of axes in the future. Integrated machine safety features together with a universal programming language are the desired attributes of the future. Unlike generally in industry, the energy saving objectives are and will remain insignificant in the packaging industry.

Parasitism level by helminths and weight gain of calves kept in organic and conventional grazing

Sustainable production is a principle in which we must meet the needs of the present without compromising the capacity of future generations. Despite the successful development of pesticides against endo and ectoparasites found in domestic ruminants, these parasites are still the major problem of the herbivore production system. The purpose of this study was to know the population of gastrintestinal parasites and their influence on weight gain of calves kept in organic and conventional grazing. Thus, organic and conventional calves were randomly selected in 2008 and 2009. The fecal egg count (FEC) indentified the following genders of helminths: Haemonchus, Trichostrongylus, Oesophagostomum, Cooperia, Strongyloides, Trichuris and oocysts of Eimeria. There was no significant difference (p>0.05) between FEC in organic and conventional animals. Calves younger than 6 months showed significant higher infection (p<0.05) than calves between 7 and 12 months of age. The weight gain observed during the study was of 327g/day and 280g/day for conventional and organic systems animals, respectively. Consequently, the combination of sustainable practices of grazing associated with the selective application of anthelmintics may be a feasible alternative for nematode control in a conventional system and in transition to an organic one.

Effects of fumonisin B1 on selected biological responses and performance of broiler chickens

The objective of this study was to determine the effects of three doses of fumonisin B1 (0, 100, and 200mg/kg of feed) on biological variables (relative weight of liver [RWL], total plasma protein [TPP], albumin [Alb], calcium [Ca], phosphorus [P], uric acid [UA], alanine aminotransferase [ALT], aspartate aminotransferase [AST], gamma glutamyltransferase [GGT], alkaline phosphatase [AP], total cholesterol [Chol], triglycerides [Tri], sphinganine-to-sphingosine ratio [SA:SO], and C-reactive protein [CRP]), morphological evaluation of the small intestine (villus height [VH], crypt depth [CD], and villus-to-crypt ratio [V:C]), histological evaluation, and on performance (body weight [BW], feed intake [FI], and feed conversion rate [FCR]) of broiler chickens. Significant effects of FB were observed on BW and FI (reduced), on RWL, TPP, Ca, ALT, AST, GGT, Chol, and Tri (increased) at both 14 and 28 days evaluations. In addition, significant increase was observed on FCR, Alb, P, SA:SO, and CRP and significant reduction in UA, VH, and V:C only at the 28 days evaluation. Significant histological lesions were observed on liver and kidney of FB inoculated broilers at 14 and 28 days. Those results show that FB has a significant effect on biological and histological variables and on performance of broiler chickens.

Cardiothoracic ratio and vertebral heart size (VHS) to standardize the heart size of the tufted capuchin (Cebus apella Linnaeus, 1758) in computerized radiographic images

Abstract: The VHS and CTR were assessed using computerized thoracic radiographs of ten clinically healthy tufted capuchin monkeys (five males and five females) from the Wild Animal Screening Center in São Luís (Centro de Triagem de Animais Silvestres de São Luís-MA-CETAS). Radiographs were taken in laterolateral and dorsoventral projections to calculate the cardiothoracic ratio (VHS) and vertebral heart size (CTR). The VHS showed mean values of 9.34±0.32v (males) and 9.16±0.34v (females) and there was no statistical difference between males and females (p>0.05). The CTR showed mean values of 0.55±0.04 (males) and 0.52±0.03 (females) and there was no statistical difference between the sexes (p>0.05). There was positive correlation between VHS and CTR (r=0.78). The thoracic and heart diameters showed mean values of 5.70±0.48cm and 2.16±0.40cm in the males, respectively. In the females they measured 5.32±0.39cm and 2.94±0.32cm. There was no statistical difference between the sexes. Our results show that the high correlation found between VHS and CTR permitted the verification with similar clinical precision between the two methods to estimate alterations in the heart silhouette by radiographic examination of tufted capuchin, making it an easy technique to apply that can be considered in the investigation of heart problems for this wild species.

Vibration analysis for Bearing outer race condition diagnostics

This paper investigates defect detection methodologies for rolling element bearings through vibration analysis. Specifically, the utility of a new signal processing scheme combining the High Frequency Resonance Technique (HFRT) and Adaptive Line Enhancer (ALE) is investigated. The accelerometer is used to acquire data for this analysis, and experimental results have been obtained for outer race defects. Results show the potential effectiveness of the signal processing technique to determine both the severity and location of a defect. The HFRT utilizes the fact that much of the energy resulting from a defect impact manifests itself in the higher resonant frequencies of a system. Demodulation of these frequency bands through use of the envelope technique is then employed to gain further insight into the nature of the defect while further increasing the signal to noise ratio. If periodic, the defect frequency is then present in the spectra of the enveloped signal. The ALE is used to enhance the envelope spectrum by reducing the broadband noise. It provides an enhanced envelope spectrum with clear peaks at the harmonics of a characteristic defect frequency. It is implemented by using a delayed version of the signal and the signal itself to decorrelate the wideband noise. This noise is then rejected by the adaptive filter that is based upon the periodic information in the signal. Results have been obtained for outer race defects. They show the effectiveness of the methodology to determine both the severity and location of a defect. In two instances, a linear relationship between signal characteristics and defect size is indicated.

Towards sustainable Iron- and steelmaking with economic optimization

The iron and steelmaking industry is among the major contributors to the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide in the world. The rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and the global concern about the greenhouse effect and climate change have brought about considerable investigations on how to reduce the energy intensity and CO2 emissions of this industrial sector. In this thesis the problem is tackled by mathematical modeling and optimization using three different approaches. The possibility to use biomass in the integrated steel plant, particularly as an auxiliary reductant in the blast furnace, is investigated. By pre-processing the biomass its heating value and carbon content can be increased at the same time as the oxygen content is decreased. As the compression strength of the preprocessed biomass is lower than that of coke, it is not suitable for replacing a major part of the coke in the blast furnace burden. Therefore the biomass is assumed to be injected at the tuyere level of the blast furnace. Carbon capture and storage is, nowadays, mostly associated with power plants but it can also be used to reduce the CO2 emissions of an integrated steel plant. In the case of a blast furnace, the effect of CCS can be further increased by recycling the carbon dioxide stripped top gas back into the process. However, this affects the economy of the integrated steel plant, as the amount of top gases available, e.g., for power and heat production is decreased. High quality raw materials are a prerequisite for smooth blast furnace operation. High quality coal is especially needed to produce coke with sufficient properties to ensure proper gas permeability and smooth burden descent. Lower quality coals as well as natural gas, which some countries have in great volumes, can be utilized with various direct and smelting reduction processes. The DRI produced with a direct reduction process can be utilized as a feed material for blast furnace, basic oxygen furnace or electric arc furnace. The liquid hot metal from a smelting reduction process can in turn be used in basic oxygen furnace or electric arc furnace. The unit sizes and investment costs of an alternative ironmaking process are also lower than those of a blast furnace. In this study, the economy of an integrated steel plant is investigated by simulation and optimization. The studied system consists of linearly described unit processes from coke plant to steel making units, with a more detailed thermodynamical model of the blast furnace. The results from the blast furnace operation with biomass injection revealed the importance of proper pre-processing of the raw biomass as the composition of the biomass as well as the heating value and the yield are all affected by the pyrolysis temperature. As for recycling of CO2 stripped blast furnace top gas, substantial reductions in the emission rates are achieved if the stripped CO2 can be stored. However, the optimal recycling degree together with other operation conditions is heavily dependent on the cost structure of CO2 emissions and stripping/storage. The economical feasibility related to the use of DRI in the blast furnace depends on the price ratio between the DRI pellets and the BF pellets. The high amount of energy needed in the rotary hearth furnace to reduce the iron ore leads to increased CO2 emissions.

Use of grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) as a biological control agent for submerged aquatic macrophytes

This study aimed to evaluate feed preference and control efficacy of grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) on the aquatic macrophytes Ceratophyllum demersum, Egeria densa and Egeria najas. An experiment was carried out at mesocosms conditions with 2,000 liters capacity and water residence time of 2.8 days. C. demersum, E. densa e E. najas biomasses were offered individually with sixty g and coupled in similar quantities of 30 g of each species, evaluated during 81 days, envolving 6 treatments. (1 - C. demersum, 2 - E. najas, 3 -E. densa, 4 - C. demersum + E. najas, 5 - C. demersum + E. densa and 6 - E. najas + E. densa). When offered individually, E. najas and C. demersum presented the same predation rate by grass carp, which was higher than E. densa predation rate. When plants were tested in pairs, the order of feed preference was C. demersum > E. najas > E. densa. E. najas and C. demersum percentage control ranged from 73 to 83%. No relation between biomass consumption and grass carp body weight gain was observed, probably due to differences in nutritional quality among macrophyte species according to fish necessities. Therefore, it is concluded that the use of grass carp is one excellent technique to control submersed macrophytes in Brazil.

Study of the effects of ß-myrcene on rat fertility and general reproductive performance

ß-Myrcene (MYR) is a monoterpene found in the oils of a variety of aromatic plants including lemongrass, verbena, hop, bay, and others. MYR and essential oils containing this terpenoid compound are used in cosmetics, household products, and as flavoring food additives. This study was undertaken to investigate the effects of MYR on fertility and general reproductive performance in the rat. MYR (0, 100, 300 and 500 mg/kg) in peanut oil was given by gavage to male Wistar rats (15 per dose group) for 91 days prior to mating and during the mating period, as well as to females (45 per dose group) continuously for 21 days before mating, during mating and pregnancy, and throughout the period of lactation up to postnatal day 21. On day 21 of pregnancy one-third of the females of each group were submitted to cesarean section. Resorption, implantation, as well as dead and live fetuses were counted. All fetuses were examined for external malformations, weighed, and cleared and stained with Alizarin Red S for skeleton evaluation. The remaining dams were allowed to give birth to their offspring. The progeny was examined at birth and subsequently up to postnatal day 21. Mortality, weight gain and physical signs of postnatal development were evaluated. Except for an increase in liver and kidney weights, no other sign of toxicity was noted in male and female rats exposed to MYR. MYR did not affect the mating index (proportion of females impregnated by males) or the pregnancy index (ratio of pregnant to sperm-positive females). No sign of maternal toxicity and no increase in externally visible malformations were observed at any dose level. Only at the highest dose tested (500 mg/kg) did MYR induce an increase in the resorption rate and a higher frequency of fetal skeleton anomalies. No adverse effect of MYR on postnatal weight gain was noted but days of appearance of primary coat, incisor eruption and eye opening were slightly delayed in the exposed offspring. On the basis of the data presented in this paper the no-observed-adverse-effect level (NOAEL) for toxic effects on fertility and general reproductive performance can be set at 300 mg of ß-myrcene/kg body weight by the oral route.