985 resultados para forecast combination


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Hintergrund Begleitverletzungen können in bis zu 90 % der Fälle nach erstmaliger Schulterluxation auftreten. Auch wenn sie nicht immer einen Einfluss auf die Therapiewahl haben, so ist eine sorgfältige Diagnostik entscheidend. Einteilung In der Akutsituation ist eine konventionelle Bildgebung in mindestens 2 Ebenen (a.-p./Neer/evtl. axial) vor und nach Reposition zwingend. Luxationsfrakturen dürfen nicht übersehen bzw. durch das Manöver der geschlossenen Reposition sekundär disloziert werden. Bestehen ossäre glenoidale, humerale oder kombinierte Verletzungen, sollten sie gemäß Stabilitätskriterien versorgt werden. Dies kann umgehend, nach manifester Dezentrierung oder Instabilität entweder mittels Osteosythese oder als glenohumerale Stabilisation im Verlauf erfolgen. Bei einer Instabilität ist prinzipiell zur Bilanzierung einer ossären Ursache das Arthro-CT die Untersuchung der Wahl, welche auch eine Beurteilung der kapsulolabroligamentären Verletzung sowie einer traumatischen Rotatorenmanschettenläsion ermöglicht. Letztere ist jedoch besser mittels Arthro-MRT zu beurteilen. Diskussion Eine signifikante frische, meist größere oder massive, Rotatorenmanschettenläsion sollte rasch operativ angegangen werden. Medial reichende „off the track“ Hill-Sachs-Läsionen können mittels einer Hill-Sachs-Remplissage oder, wie auch glenoidale Defekte, mittels einer Kochenaugmentation versorgt werden. Langzeitresultate des Latarjet-Verfahrens zeigen 25 Jahre nach dem Eingriff die niedrigste Reluxationsrate < 4 %, eine gute Außenrotation, eine sehr hohe Patientenzufriedenheit und degenerative Veränderungen, welche vergleichbar mit der natürlichen Entwicklung nach erstmaliger Schulterluxation ohne Rezidiv sind.

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The Alpine region is warming fast, and concurrently, the frequency and intensity of climate extremes are increasing. It is currently unclear whether alpine ecosystems are sensitive or resistant to such extremes. We subjected Swiss alpine grassland communities to heat waves with varying intensity by transplanting monoliths to four different elevations (2440–660 m above sea level) for 17 d. Half of these were regularly irrigated while the other half were deprived of irrigation to additionally induce a drought at each site. Heat waves had no significant impacts on fluorescence (Fv/Fm, a stress indicator), senescence and aboveground productivity if irrigation was provided. However, when heat waves coincided with drought, the plants showed clear signs of stress, resulting in vegetation browning and reduced phytomass production. This likely resulted from direct drought effects, but also, as measurements of stomatal conductance and canopy temperatures suggest, from increased high-temperature stress as water scarcity decreased heat mitigation through transpiration. The immediate responses to heat waves (with or without droughts) recorded in these alpine grasslands were similar to those observed in the more extensively studied grasslands from temperate climates. Responses following climate extremes may differ in alpine environments, however, because the short growing season likely constrains recovery.

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Multidrug-resistant (MDR) cytomegalovirus (CMV) emerged after transient responses to ganciclovir, foscarnet, and cidofovir in a CMV-seropositive recipient who underwent allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation from a CMV-seronegative donor. Experimental treatments using leflunomide and artesunate failed. Re-transplantation from a CMV-seropositive donor supported by adoptive transfer of pp65-specific T cells and maribavir was followed by lasting suppression. This case illustrates that successful MDR CMV therapy may require individualized multidisciplinary approaches. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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Background.  Limited data exist on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals' ability to work after receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). We aimed to investigate predictors of regaining full ability to work at 1 year after starting cART. Methods.  Antiretroviral-naive HIV-infected individuals <60 years who started cART from January 1998 through December 2012 within the framework of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study were analyzed. Inability to work was defined as a medical judgment of the patient's ability to work as 0%. Results.  Of 5800 subjects, 4382 (75.6%) were fully able to work, 471 (8.1%) able to work part time, and 947 (16.3%) were unable to work at baseline. Of the 947 patients unable to work, 439 (46.3%) were able to work either full time or part time at 1 year of treatment. Predictors of recovering full ability to work were non-white ethnicity (odds ratio [OR], 2.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20-3.54), higher education (OR, 4.03; 95% CI, 2.47-7.48), and achieving HIV-ribonucleic acid <50 copies/mL (OR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.20-2.80). Older age (OR, 0.55; 95% CI, .42-.72, per 10 years older) and psychiatric disorders (OR, 0.24; 95% CI, .13-.47) were associated with lower odds of ability to work. Recovering full ability to work at 1 year increased from 24.0% in 1998-2001 to 41.2% in 2009-2012, but the employment rates did not increase. Conclusions.  Regaining full ability to work depends primarily on achieving viral suppression, absence of psychiatric comorbidity, and favorable psychosocial factors. The discrepancy between patients' ability to work and employment rates indicates barriers to reintegration of persons infected with HIV.

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INTRODUCTION Despite important advances in psychological and pharmacological treatments of persistent depressive disorders in the past decades, their responses remain typically slow and poor, and differential responses among different modalities of treatments or their combinations are not well understood. Cognitive-Behavioural Analysis System of Psychotherapy (CBASP) is the only psychotherapy that has been specifically designed for chronic depression and has been examined in an increasing number of trials against medications, alone or in combination. When several treatment alternatives are available for a certain condition, network meta-analysis (NMA) provides a powerful tool to examine their relative efficacy by combining all direct and indirect comparisons. Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis enables exploration of impacts of individual characteristics that lead to a differentiated approach matching treatments to specific subgroups of patients. METHODS AND ANALYSIS We will search for all randomised controlled trials that compared CBASP, pharmacotherapy or their combination, in the treatment of patients with persistent depressive disorder, in Cochrane CENTRAL, PUBMED, SCOPUS and PsycINFO, supplemented by personal contacts. Individual participant data will be sought from the principal investigators of all the identified trials. Our primary outcomes are depression severity as measured on a continuous observer-rated scale for depression, and dropouts for any reason as a proxy measure of overall treatment acceptability. We will conduct a one-step IPD-NMA to compare CBASP, medications and their combinations, and also carry out a meta-regression to identify their prognostic factors and effect moderators. The model will be fitted in OpenBUGS, using vague priors for all location parameters. For the heterogeneity we will use a half-normal prior on the SD. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION This study requires no ethical approval. We will publish the findings in a peer-reviewed journal. The study results will contribute to more finely differentiated therapeutics for patients suffering from this chronically disabling disorder. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER CRD42016035886.

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This paper uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting US home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, the price of homes, the mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and the unemployment rate. We evaluate the forecasting performance of six alternative leading indicators by adding each, in turn, to the benchmark model. Out-of-sample forecast performance over three periods shows that the model that includes building permits authorized consistently produces the most accurate forecasts. Thus, the intention to build in the future provides good information with which to predict home sales. Another finding suggests that leading indicators with longer leads outperform the short-leading indicators.

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ErbB2 is an excellent target for cancer therapies because its overexpression was found in about 30% of breast cancers and correlated with poor prognosis of the patients. Unfortunately, current therapies for ErbB2-positive breast cancers remain unsatisfying due to side effects and resistance, and new therapies for ErbB2 overexpressing breast cancers are needed. Peptide/protein therapy using cell-penetrating peptides (CPPs) as carriers is promising because the internalization is highly efficient and the cargos can be bioactive. The major obstacle in using CPPs for therapy is their lack of specificity. We sought to develop a peptide carrier specifically introducing therapeutics to ErbB2-overexpressing breast cancer cells. By modifying the TAT-derived CPP, and attaching anti-HER2/neu peptide mimetic (AHNP), we developed the peptide carrier (P3-AHNP) specifically targeted ErbB2-overexpressing breast cancers in vitro and in vivo. A STAT3 SH2 domain-binding peptide conjugated to this peptide carrier (P3-AHNP-STAT3BP) was delivered preferentially into ErbB2-overexpressing breast cancer cells in vitro and in vivo. P3-AHNP-STAT3BP inhibited growth and induced apoptosis in vitro, with ErbB2-overexpressing 435.eB cells being more sensitive than the ErbB2-lowexpressing MDA-MB-435 cells. P3-AHNP-STAT3BP preferentially accumulated and inhibited growth in 435.eB xenografts, comparing with MDA-MB-435 xenografts or normal tissues with low levels of ErbB2. This ErbB2-targeting peptide delivery system provided the basis for future development of novel cancer target-specific treatments with low toxicity to normal cells. ^ Another urgent issue in treating ErbB2-positive breast cancers is trastuzumab resistance. Trastuzumab is the only FDA-approved ErbB2-targeting antibody for treatment of metastatic breast cancers overexpressing ErbB2, and has remarkable therapeutic efficacy in certain patients. The overall trastuzumab response rate, however, is limited, and understanding the mechanisms of trastuzumab resistance is needed to overcome this problem. We report that PTEN activation contributes to trastuzumab's anti-tumor activity. Trastuzumab treatment quickly inactivated Src, which reduced PTEN tyrosine phosphorylation, increased PTEN membrane localization and its phosphatase activity in cancer cells. Reducing PTEN expression in breast cancer cells by antisense oligonucleotides conferred trastuzumab resistance in vitro and in vivo. Importantly, PI3K inhibitors sensitized PTEN-deficient breast cancers to the growth inhibition by trastuzumab in vitro and in vivo, suggesting that combination therapies with PI3K inhibitors plus trastuzumab could overcome trastuzumab resistance. ^

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A growing number of studies show strong associations between stress and altered immune function. In vivo studies of chronic and acute stress have demonstrated that cognitive stressors are strongly correlated with high circulating levels of catecholamines (CT) and corticosteroids (CS) that are associated with changes in type-1/type-2 cytokine expression. Although individual pharmacologic doses of CS and CT can inhibit the expression of T-helper 1 (Th1, type-1 like) and promote the production of T-helper 2 (Th2, type-2 like) cytokines in antigen-specific and mitogen stimulated human leukocyte cultures in vitro, little attention has been focused on the effects of combination physiologic-stress doses of CT and CS that may be more physiologically relevant. In addition, both in-vivo and in-vitro studies suggest that the differential expression of the B7 family of costimulatory molecules CD80 and CD86 may promote the expression of type-1 or type-2 cytokines, respectively. Furthermore, corticosteroids can influence the expression of β2-adrenergic receptors in various human tissues. We therefore investigated the combined effects of physiologic-stress doses of in vitro CT and CS upon the type-1/type-2 cytokine balance and expression of B7 costimulatory molecules of human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) as a model to study the immunomodulatory effects of physiologic stress. Results demonstrated a significant decrease in type-1 cytokine expression and a significant increase in type-2 cytokine production in our CS+CT incubated cultures when compared to either CT or CS agents alone. In addition, we demonstrated the differential expression of CD80/CD86 in favor of CD86 at the cellular and population level as determined by flow cytometry in lipopolysaccharide stimulated human Monocytes. Furthermore, we developed flow cytometry based assays to detect total β2AR in human CD4+ T-lymphocytes that demonstrated decreased expression of β2AR in mitogen stimulated CD4+ T-lymphocytes in the presence of physiologic stress levels of CS and CT as single in vitro agents, however, when both CS and CT were combined, significantly higher expression of β2AR was observed. In summary, our in vitro data suggest that both CS and CT work cooperatively to shift immunity towards type-2 responses. ^

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A systematic review was performed in order to evaluate perchlorate remediation technologies. The two included technologies were ion-exchange concerted with biodegradation and solely biodegradation. A meta-analysis was completed and subsequently, a regression model was formed to conduct a degradation rate analysis and to depict the association between rate and various dependent variables (salinity/sali, nitrate concentration/nitc and carbon source concentration/csou). The outcome of the model analysis suggested that salt concentration did have an effect on the degradation rate in the ion-exchange process and that with a salt concentration greater than or equal to 18.6 g/L, the biodegradation process will produce a greater reduction of perchlorate than ion-exchange concerted with biodegradation. However, when a t-test examined the difference in perchlorate degradation rate between the two cleanup methods, there was no significant difference seen (p=0.7351, α = 0.05).^

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A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^

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Uterine leiomyosarcoma (ULMS) is an aggressive malignancy characterized by marked chemoresistance, frequent relapses, and poor outcome. Despite efforts to improve survival over the past several decades, only minimal advances have been made. Hence, there is an urgent and unmet need for better understanding of the molecular deregulations that underlay ULMS and development of more effective therapeutic strategies. This work identified several common deregulations in a large (n=208) tissue microarray of ULMS compared to GI smooth muscle, myometrium, and leiomyoma controls. Our results suggest that significant loss of smooth muscle and gynecological differentiation markers is common in ULMS, a finding that could help render improved ULMS diagnosis, especially for advanced disease. Similarly to reports in other malignancies, we found that several cancer-related proteins were differentially expressed; these could be useful together as biomarkers for ULMS. Notably, we identified significant upregulation and overexpression of the mTOR pathway in ULMS, examined the possible contribution of tyrosine kinase receptor deregulation promoting mTOR activation, and unraveled a role for pS6RP and p4EBP1 as molecular disease prognosticators. The significance of mTOR activation in ULMS and its potential as a therapeutic target were further investigated. Rapamycin abrogated ULMS cell growth and cell cycle progression in vitro but induced only sight growth delay in vivo. Given that effective mTOR therapies likely require combination mTOR blockade with inhibition of other targets, coupled with recent observations suggesting that Aurora A kinase (Aurk A) deregulations commonly occur in ULMS, the preclinical impact of dually targeting both pathways was evaluated. Combined therapy with rapamycin (an mTORC1 inhibitor) and MLN8237 (an investigational Aurk A inhibitor) profoundly and synergistically abrogated ULMS growth in vitro. Interestingly, the superior effects were noted only when MLN8237 was pre-administered. This novel therapeutic combination and scheduling regimen resulted in marked tumor growth inhibition in vivo. Together, these data support further exploration of dual mTOR and Aurk A blockade for the treatment of human ULMS.

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Proviral integration site for Moloney murine leukemia virus (Pim) kinases are Ser/Thr/Tyr kinases. They modulate B-cell development but become oncoproteins and promote cancer development once overexpressed. Containing three isoforms, Pim-1, -2 and -3 are known to phosphorylate various substrates that regulate transcription, translation, cell cycle, and survival pathways in both hematological and solid tumors. Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is an aggressive B-cell lymphoma. Elevated Pim kinase levels are common in MCL, and it negatively correlates with patient outcome. SGI-1776 is a small molecule inhibitor selective for Pim-1/-3. We hypothesize that SGI-1776 treatment in MCL will inhibit Pim kinase function, and inhibition of downstream substrates phosphorylation will disrupt transcriptional, translational, and cell cycle processes while promoting apoptosis. SGI-1776 treatment induced moderate to high levels of apoptosis in four MCL cell lines (JeKo-1, Mino, SP-53 and Granta-519) and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from MCL patients. Phosphorylation of transcription and translation regulators, c-Myc and 4E-BP1 declined in both model systems. Additionally, levels of short-lived Mcl-1 mRNA and protein also decreased and correlated with decline of global RNA synthesis. Collectively, our investigations highlight Pim kinases as viable drug targets in MCL and emphasize their roles in transcriptional and translational regulation. We further investigated a combination strategy using SGI-1776 with bendamustine, an FDA-approved DNA-damaging alkylating agent for treating non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. We hypothesized this combination will enhance SGI-1776-induced transcription and translation inhibition, while promoting bendamustine-triggered DNA damage and inducing additive to synergistic cytotoxicity in B-cell lymphoma. Bendamustine alone resulted in moderate levels of apoptosis induction in MCL cell lines (JeKo-1 and Mino), and in MCL and splenic marginal zone lymphoma (a type of B-cell lymphoma) primary cells. An additive effect in cell killing was observed when combined with SGI-1776. Expectedly, SGI-1776 effectively decreased global RNA and protein synthesis levels, while bendamustine significantly inhibited DNA synthesis and generated DNA damage response. In combination, intensified inhibitory effects in DNA, RNA and protein syntheses were observed. Together, these data suggested feasibility of using Pim kinase inhibitor in combination with chemotherapeutic agents such as bendamustine in B-cell lymphoma, and provided foundation of their mechanism of actions in lymphoma cells.