Técnicas de mineração de dados para análise da precipitação pluvial decenal no Rio Grande do Sul

O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar o comportamento espaçotemporal da precipitação pluvial no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, entre os decênios de 1987-1996 e 1997-2006, por meio de técnicas de mineração de dados. As séries históricas foram adquiridas no sistema de informações hidrológicas Hidroweb. A metodologia utilizada teve como base o modelo CRISP-DM (Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining). Foram definidas áreas pluviometricamente homogêneas para os decênios de 1987-1996 e 1997-2006. Em seguida, pela sobreposição dos agrupamentos obtidos para os dois períodos, encontraram-se seis zonas comuns aos dois decênios (A a F). As alterações ocorridas foram avaliadas nas seguintes escalas temporais: anual, sazonal e mensalmente. Os resultados indicaram incrementos significativos (20 a 240 mm) na precipitação anual em todas as zonas, exceto na zona A. Na análise sazonal, as variações foram aleatórias, sendo que, na primavera, todas as zonas apresentaram incremento significativo (44 a 142 mm). Na análise mensal, destaca-se a redução ocorrida no mês de janeiro em todas as zonas, exceto na E. Nos demais meses, as variações foram aleatórias. Os resultados mostram que, entre os decênios, houve uma alteração no volume da precipitação pluvial em todas as escalas temporais analisadas.

Legal challenges for next generation science

Presentation at the Nordic Perspectives on Open Access and Open Science seminar, Helsinki, October 15, 2013

Tiedolla johtaminen henkilöstöhallinnossa - Empiirinen tutkimus

Yritysten syvällinen ymmärrys työntekijöistä vaatii yrityksiltä monipuolista panostusta tiedonhallintaan. Tämän yhdistäminen ennakoivaan analytiikkaan ja tiedonlouhintaan mahdollistaa yrityksille uudenlaisen ulottuvuuden kehittää henkilöstöhallinnon toimintoja niin työntekijöiden kuin yrityksen etujen mukaisesti. Tutkielman tavoitteena oli selvittää tiedonlouhinnan hyödyntämistä henkilöstöhallinnossa. Tutkielma toteutettiin konstruktiivistä menetelmää hyödyntäen. Teoreettinen viitekehys keskittyi ennakoivan analytiikan ja tiedonlouhinnan konseptin ymmärtämiseen. Tutkielman empiriaosuus rakentui kvalitatiiviseen ja kvantitatiiviseen osiin. Kvalitatiivinen osa koostui tutkielman esitutkimuksesta, jossa käsiteltiin ennakoivan analytiikan ja tiedonlouhinnan hyödyntämistä. Kvantitatiivinen osa rakentui tiedonlouhintaprojektiin, joka toteutettiin henkilöstöhallintoon tutkien henkilöstövaihtuvuutta. Esitutkimuksen tuloksena tiedonlouhinnan hyödyntämisen haasteiksi ilmeni muun muassa tiedon omistajuus, osaaminen ja ymmärrys mahdollisuuksista. Tiedonlouhintaprojektin tuloksena voidaan todeta, että tutkimuksessa sovelletuista korrelaatioiden tutkimisista ja logistisesta regressioanalyysistä oli havaittavissa tilastollisia riippuvuuksia vapaaehtoisesti poistuvien työntekijöiden osalta.

Liiketoiminta-analytiikka osana yritysten päätöksentekoa

Liiketoiminta-analytiikka on yksi yritysten suorituskyvyn johtamisen osa-alue, joka on viime aikoina noussut vahvasti esille yritysten kilpailuedun mahdollistavana avaintekijänä. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli kartoittaa yritysten liiketoiminta-analytiikan nykytila ja tarpeet Suomessa. Tutkimus on luonteeltaan kvalitatiivinen vertaileva tutkimus. Tutkimuksen empiirinen aineisto kerättiin kahden menetelmän yhdistelmänä. Liiketoiminta-analytiikan hyödyntämisessä edistyneempien yrityksien asiantuntijoille toteutettiin haastattelut. Lisäksi toteutettiin sähköpostitse lomakemuotoinen kyselytutkimus, jotta saavutettaisiin kattavampi näkemys analytiikan markkinoista. Tutkimuksessa on kartoitettu, miten Suomessa ymmärretään liiketoiminta- analytiikan käsite eri yrityksien analytiikan asiantuntijoiden toimesta, sekä minkälaisissa päätöksentekotilanteissa liiketoiminta-analytiikkaa hyödynnetään ja minkälaisilla tavoilla. Lisäksi on selvitetty, miten liiketoiminta-analytiikan kehittämistä ja analytiikan kyvykkyyksiä hallitaan yrityksissä. Liiketoiminta-analytiikka on Suomessa tietyillä toimialoilla erittäin kehittynyttä, mutta yleisesti ollaan jäljessä alan edelläkävijöitä ja esimerkiksi Ruotsia. Liiketoiminta-analytiikan hyödyntäminen ja tarpeet ovat pitkälti kohdistuneet päätöksentekotilanteisiin, joissa yritys kohtaa asiakkaansa. Suurin yksittäinen este liiketoiminta-analytiikan hyödyntämiselle on resurssi- ja osaamisvaje.

Project Resource Management in R&D Public Sector Organization

In R&D organizations multiple projects are executed concurrently. Problems arises in managing shared resources since they are needed by multiple projects simultaneously. The objective of this thesis was to study how the project and resource management could be developed in a public sector R&D organization. The qualitative research was carried out in the Magnetic Measurements section at CERN where the section measures magnets for particle accelerators and builds state of the art measurement devices for various needs. Hence, the R&D and measurement projects are very time consuming and very complex. Based on the previous research and the requirements from the organization the best alter- native for resource management was to build a project management information system. A centralized database was constructed and on top of it was built an application for interacting and visualizing the project data. The application allows handling project data, which works as a basis for resource planning before and during the projects are executed. It is one way to standardize the work-flow of projects, which strengthens the project process. Additionally, it was noted that the inner customer’s database, the measurement system and the new application needed to be integrated. Further integration ensures that the project data is received efficiently from customers and available not only within the application but also during the concrete work. The research results introduced a new integrated application, which centralizes the project information flow with better visibility.

Visual analytics for behavioral and niche market segmentation

Companies require information in order to gain an improved understanding of their customers. Data concerning customers, their interests and behavior are collected through different loyalty programs. The amount of data stored in company data bases has increased exponentially over the years and become difficult to handle. This research area is the subject of much current interest, not only in academia but also in practice, as is shown by several magazines and blogs that are covering topics on how to get to know your customers, Big Data, information visualization, and data warehousing. In this Ph.D. thesis, the Self-Organizing Map and two extensions of it – the Weighted Self-Organizing Map (WSOM) and the Self-Organizing Time Map (SOTM) – are used as data mining methods for extracting information from large amounts of customer data. The thesis focuses on how data mining methods can be used to model and analyze customer data in order to gain an overview of the customer base, as well as, for analyzing niche-markets. The thesis uses real world customer data to create models for customer profiling. Evaluation of the built models is performed by CRM experts from the retailing industry. The experts considered the information gained with help of the models to be valuable and useful for decision making and for making strategic planning for the future.

Liber fostering Open Science and Knowledge Discovery

Presentation of Kristiina Hormia-Poutanen at the 25th Anniversary Conference of The National Repository Library of Finland, Kuopio 22th of May 2015.

Aineistojen käsittely ja jalostaminen

Aineistojen käsittely ja jalostaminen. Esitys Liikearkistopäiville 2015.

A Project Portfolio Tool for Forecasting Small Projects Profitability

The case company in this study is a large industrial engineering company whose business is largely based on delivering a wide-range of engineering projects. The aim of this study is to create and develop a fairly simple Excel-based tool for the sales department. The tool’s main function is to estimate and visualize the profitability of various small projects. The study also aims to find out other possible and more long-term solutions for tackling the problem in the future. The study is highly constructive and descriptive as it focuses on the development task and in the creation of a new operating model. The developed tool focuses on estimating the profitability of the small orders of the selected project portfolio currently on the bidding-phase (prospects) and will help the case company in the monthly reporting of sales figures. The tool will analyse the profitability of a certain project by calculating its fixed and variable costs, then further the gross margin and operating profit. The bidding phase of small project is a phase that has not been covered fully by the existing tools within the case company. The project portfolio tool can be taken into use immediately within the case company and it will provide fairly accurate estimate of the profitability figures of the recently sold small projects.

BotCloud Detection System

Leveraging cloud services, companies and organizations can significantly improve their efficiency, as well as building novel business opportunities. Cloud computing offers various advantages to companies while having some risks for them too. Advantages offered by service providers are mostly about efficiency and reliability while risks of cloud computing are mostly about security problems. Problems with security of the cloud still demand significant attention in order to tackle the potential problems. Security problems in the cloud as security problems in any area of computing, can not be fully tackled. However creating novel and new solutions can be used by service providers to mitigate the potential threats to a large extent. Looking at the security problem from a very high perspective, there are two focus directions. Security problems that threaten service user’s security and privacy are at one side. On the other hand, security problems that threaten service provider’s security and privacy are on the other side. Both kinds of threats should mostly be detected and mitigated by service providers. Looking a bit closer to the problem, mitigating security problems that target providers can protect both service provider and the user. However, the focus of research community mostly is to provide solutions to protect cloud users. A significant research effort has been put in protecting cloud tenants against external attacks. However, attacks that are originated from elastic, on-demand and legitimate cloud resources should still be considered seriously. The cloud-based botnet or botcloud is one of the prevalent cases of cloud resource misuses. Unfortunately, some of the cloud’s essential characteristics enable criminals to form reliable and low cost botclouds in a short time. In this paper, we present a system that helps to detect distributed infected Virtual Machines (VMs) acting as elements of botclouds. Based on a set of botnet related system level symptoms, our system groups VMs. Grouping VMs helps to separate infected VMs from others and narrows down the target group under inspection. Our system takes advantages of Virtual Machine Introspection (VMI) and data mining techniques.

Location intelligence strategisen päätöksenteon tukena

Kilpailuetua tavoittelevan yrityksen pitää kyetä jalostamaan tietoa ja tunnistamaan sen avulla uusia tulevaisuuden mahdollisuuksia. Tulevaisuuden mielikuvien luomiseksi yrityksen on tunnettava toimintaympäristönsä ja olla herkkänä havaitsemaan muutostrendit ja muut toimintaympäristön signaalit. Ympäristön elintärkeät signaalit liittyvät kilpailijoihin, teknologian kehittymiseen, arvomaailman muutoksiin, globaaleihin väestötrendeihin tai jopa ympäristön muutoksiin. Spatiaaliset suhteet ovat peruspilareita käsitteellistää maailmaamme. Pitney (2015) on arvioinut, että 80 % kaikesta bisnesdatasta sisältää jollakin tavoin viittauksia paikkatietoon. Siitä huolimatta paikkatietoa on vielä huonosti hyödynnetty yritysten strategisten päätösten tukena. Teknologioiden kehittyminen, tiedon nopea siirto ja paikannustekniikoiden integroiminen eri laitteisiin ovat mahdollistaneet sen, että paikkatietoa hyödyntäviä palveluja ja ratkaisuja tullaan yhä enemmän näkemään yrityskentässä. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää voiko location intelligence toimia strategisen päätöksenteon tukena ja jos voi, niin miten. Työ toteutettiin konstruktiivista tutkimusmenetelmää käyttäen, jolla pyritään ratkaisemaan jokin relevantti ongelma. Konstruktiivinen tutkimus tehtiin tiiviissä yhteistyössä kolmen pk-yrityksen kanssa ja siihen haastateltiin kuutta eri strategiasta vastaavaa henkilöä. Tutkimuksen tuloksena löydettiin, että location intelligenceä voidaan hyödyntää strategisen päätöksenteon tukena usealla eri tasolla. Yksinkertaisimmassa karttaratkaisussa halutut tiedot tuodaan kartalle ja luodaan visuaalinen esitys, jonka avulla johtopäätöksien tekeminen helpottuu. Toisen tason karttaratkaisu pitää sisällään sekä sijainti- että ominaisuustietoa, jota on yhdistetty eri lähteistä. Tämä toisen tason karttaratkaisu on usein kuvailevaa analytiikkaa, joka mahdollistaa erilaisten ilmiöiden analysoinnin. Kolmannen eli ylimmän tason karttaratkaisu tarjoaa ennakoivaa analytiikkaa ja malleja tulevaisuudesta. Tällöin ohjelmaan koodataan älykkyyttä, jossa informaation keskinäisiä suhteita on määritelty joko tiedon louhintaa tai tilastollisia analyysejä hyödyntäen. Tutkimuksen johtopäätöksenä voidaan todeta, että location intelligence pystyy tarjoamaan lisäarvoa strategisen päätöksenteon tueksi, mikäli yritykselle on hyödyllistä ymmärtää eri ilmiöiden, asiakastarpeiden, kilpailijoiden ja markkinamuutoksien maantieteellisiä eroavaisuuksia. Parhaimmillaan location intelligence -ratkaisu tarjoaa luotettavan analyysin, jossa tieto välittyy muuttumattomana päätöksentekijältä toiselle ja johtopäätökseen johtaneita syitä on mahdollista palata tarkastelemaan tarvittaessa uudelleen.

Search engine advertising in web retailing : an efficiency analysis

This study examines the efficiency of search engine advertising strategies employed by firms. The research setting is the online retailing industry, which is characterized by extensive use of Web technologies and high competition for market share and profitability. For Internet retailers, search engines are increasingly serving as an information gateway for many decision-making tasks. In particular, Search engine advertising (SEA) has opened a new marketing channel for retailers to attract new customers and improve their performance. In addition to natural (organic) search marketing strategies, search engine advertisers compete for top advertisement slots provided by search brokers such as Google and Yahoo! through keyword auctions. The rationale being that greater visibility on a search engine during a keyword search will capture customers' interest in a business and its product or service offerings. Search engines account for most online activities today. Compared with the slow growth of traditional marketing channels, online search volumes continue to grow at a steady rate. According to the Search Engine Marketing Professional Organization, spending on search engine marketing by North American firms in 2008 was estimated at $13.5 billion. Despite the significant role SEA plays in Web retailing, scholarly research on the topic is limited. Prior studies in SEA have focused on search engine auction mechanism design. In contrast, research on the business value of SEA has been limited by the lack of empirical data on search advertising practices. Recent advances in search and retail technologies have created datarich environments that enable new research opportunities at the interface of marketing and information technology. This research uses extensive data from Web retailing and Google-based search advertising and evaluates Web retailers' use of resources, search advertising techniques, and other relevant factors that contribute to business performance across different metrics. The methods used include Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), data mining, and multivariate statistics. This research contributes to empirical research by analyzing several Web retail firms in different industry sectors and product categories. One of the key findings is that the dynamics of sponsored search advertising vary between multi-channel and Web-only retailers. While the key performance metrics for multi-channel retailers include measures such as online sales, conversion rate (CR), c1ick-through-rate (CTR), and impressions, the key performance metrics for Web-only retailers focus on organic and sponsored ad ranks. These results provide a useful contribution to our organizational level understanding of search engine advertising strategies, both for multi-channel and Web-only retailers. These results also contribute to current knowledge in technology-driven marketing strategies and provide managers with a better understanding of sponsored search advertising and its impact on various performance metrics in Web retailing.

Improving the Scalability of Reduct Determination in Rough Sets

Rough Set Data Analysis (RSDA) is a non-invasive data analysis approach that solely relies on the data to find patterns and decision rules. Despite its noninvasive approach and ability to generate human readable rules, classical RSDA has not been successfully used in commercial data mining and rule generating engines. The reason is its scalability. Classical RSDA slows down a great deal with the larger data sets and takes much longer times to generate the rules. This research is aimed to address the issue of scalability in rough sets by improving the performance of the attribute reduction step of the classical RSDA - which is the root cause of its slow performance. We propose to move the entire attribute reduction process into the database. We defined a new schema to store the initial data set. We then defined SOL queries on this new schema to find the attribute reducts correctly and faster than the traditional RSDA approach. We tested our technique on two typical data sets and compared our results with the traditional RSDA approach for attribute reduction. In the end we also highlighted some of the issues with our proposed approach which could lead to future research.

Towards Evaluating and Modelling the Impacts of Mobile-Based Augmented Reality Applications on Learning and Engagement

Mobile augmented reality applications are increasingly utilized as a medium for enhancing learning and engagement in history education. Although these digital devices facilitate learning through immersive and appealing experiences, their design should be driven by theories of learning and instruction. We provide an overview of an evidence-based approach to optimize the development of mobile augmented reality applications that teaches students about history. Our research aims to evaluate and model the impacts of design parameters towards learning and engagement. The research program is interdisciplinary in that we apply techniques derived from design-based experiments and educational data mining. We outline the methodological and analytical techniques as well as discuss the implications of the anticipated findings.

Towards Evaluating and Modelling the Impacts of Mobile-Based Augmented Reality Applications on Learning and Engagement

Mobile augmented reality applications are increasingly utilized as a medium for enhancing learning and engagement in history education. Although these digital devices facilitate learning through immersive and appealing experiences, their design should be driven by theories of learning and instruction. We provide an overview of an evidence-based approach to optimize the development of mobile augmented reality applications that teaches students about history. Our research aims to evaluate and model the impacts of design parameters towards learning and engagement. The research program is interdisciplinary in that we apply techniques derived from design-based experiments and educational data mining. We outline the methodological and analytical techniques as well as discuss the implications of the anticipated findings.