Algunos factores que inciden en el rendimiento y en la evaluación de los alumnos en las PAAU

The context where the university admissions exams are performed is presented and the main concerns about this exams are outlined and discussed from a statistical point of view. The paper offers an illustration of the use of random coefficient models in the study of educational data. The association between two individual scores (one internal and the other external to the school) and the effect of the school in the external exam is analized by a regression model with random intercept and fixed slope. A variance component model for the analysis of the grading process is also presented. The paper ends with an outline of the main findings and the presentation of some specific proposals to improve and control the equity of the system. Some pedagogic reflections are also included.

Assessment of human skin penetration of two irritant herbicides

Two common herbicides; isoproturon and bentazon, are strong skin irritants and cross the skin barrier easily. Assessment of percutaneous absorption of these substances is a very important step in the evaluation of any dermal or transdermal dose, especially among agricultural workers who frequently have dermal exposures during crop treatment. The aims of the study were to determine the permeation rate of human skin for both herbicides in vitro, and histologically evaluate skin damage due to irritation at different concentrations. Skin penetration was assessed using a dynamic flow-through in vitro penetration system and analysis were performed with ion trap LC-MS (acidified water: acetronitile, C18 column). Two concentrations of bentazon (75 and 150 μg/mL) and isoproturon (125 and 250 μg/mL) in saline solution were applied on excised human skin from several donors. Saline water was used as receptor fluid. Collection times were: 4, 8, and 24 hours. After the experiments, the skin was removed and examined by histopathology for apoptosis, acanthosis, acantholysis and epidermolysis. The skin permeation rate, J, was calculated from the slope of the cumulative amount permeated as a function of time. The lag time, tL, was assigned from the time-axis intercept of the extrapolation of this linearity. Our results showed that tL for bentazon and isoproturon for both concentrations tested were similar; 2, 1.5 hours, respectively. Bentazon had a lowerer J compared to isoproturon; 350, 600 ng/cm2/h, respectively. Some acanthosis was observed after 8 hours of exposure to either of the two substances. In conclusion, our in vitro experiments demonstrate that bentazon and isoproturon cross the skin barrier within 2 hours even at very low concentrations, and showed some signs of skin damage. Future tests involve concentrations found in commercial products.

Within tree distribution of a gall-inducing Eurytoma (Hymenoptera, Eurytomidae) on Caryocar brasiliense (Caryocaraceae)

For the first time, we identified the insect herbivore that induces one of the most conspicuous galls on the leaves of Caryocar brasiliense Camb. (Caryocaraceae), a widespread, typical cerrado woody plant of large economic importance. The gall inducing organism is a new and undescribed species of Eurytoma sp. (Hymenoptera, Eurytomidae). Furthermore, we recorded its spatial distribution within C. brasiliense trees. More Eurytoma galls were found on the eastern tree slope, followed the southern and northern slopes. More galls were found in the interior of the tree crown, i.e., on the proximal portion of the stems compared to the terminal portion. At the leaf level, more galls were found on the median region compared to the distal or proximal, perhaps due to the lower trichome density found in there. Leaf colonization by Eurytoma sp. may initiate at the leaf margin but after colonization reaches 50% the central portion starts to be colonized.

Improving rainwater-use in Cabo Verde drylands by reducing runoff

Dryland agriculture in Cabo Verde copes with steep slopes, inadequate practices, irregular intense rain, recurrent droughts, high runoff rates, severe soil erosion and declining fertility, leading to the inefficient use of rainwater. Maize and beans occupy N80% of the arable land in low-input, low-yielding subsistence farming. Three collaborative field trialswere conducted in different agroecological zones to evaluate the effects ofwater-conservation techniques (mulching of crop residue, a soil surfactant and pigeon-pea hedges) combinedwith organic amendments (compost and animal or green manure) on runoff and soil loss. During the 2011 and 2012 rainy seasons, three treatments and one control (traditional practice) were applied to 44- and 24-m2 field plots. A local maize variety and two types of beanswere planted. Runoff and suspended sedimentswere collected and quantified after each daily erosive rainfall. Runoff occurred for rainfalls≥50mm(slope b10%, loamy Kastanozem),≥60mm(slope≤23%, silt–clay–loam Regosol) and≥40mm(slope≤37%, sandy loam Cambisol). Runoffwas significantly reduced only with themulch treatment on the slope N10% and in the treatment of surfactant with organic amendment on the slope b10%. Soil loss reached 16.6, 5.1, 6.6 and 0.4 Mg ha−1 on the Regosol (≤23% slope) for the control, surfactant, pigeon-pea and mulch/pigeon-pea (with organic amendment) treatments, respectively; 3.2, 0.9, 1.3 and 0.1 Mg ha−1 on the Cambisol (≤37% slope) and b0. 2Mg ha−1 for all treatments and control on the Kastanozem(b10% slope). Erosion was highly positively correlated with runoff. Mulch with pigeon-pea combinedwith an organic amendment significantly reduced runoff and erosion fromagricultural fields on steep slopes, contributing to improved use of rainwater at the plot level. Sustainable land management techniques, such as mulching with pigeon-pea hedges and an organic amendment, should be advocated and promoted for the semiarid hillsides of Cabo Verde prone to erosion to increase rainwater-use and to prevent further soil degradation.

Risk management under a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk managementbased on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interestrates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that defaultfree discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and twofactors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between thelong-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several newmeasures of ``generalized duration" are presented and applied in differentsituations in order to manage market risk and yield curve risk. By means ofthese measures, we are able to compute the hedging ratios that allows us toimmunize a bond portfolio by means of options on bonds. Focusing on thehedging problem, it is shown that these new measures allow us to immunize abond portfolio against changes (parallel and/or in the slope) in the yieldcurve. Finally, a proposal of solution of the limitations of conventionalduration by means of these new measures is presented and illustratednumerically.

A Luta Contra a Desertificação em Cabo Verde

O problema da seca, dos processos de desertificação e da fome são particularmente acutilantes no arquipélago de Cabo Verde, onde a irregularidade das chuvas associada ao carácter insular e às características do relevo, muito acentuado nas ilhas com maior potencial agrícola, constituem desafios avassaladores, que no passado implicavam a morte por fome de percentagens significativas da população. Após as fomes da década de 1940, começaram a ser implementadas um conjunto de infra-estruturas de combate à desertificação, baseadas na conservação do solo e da água, que hoje são omnipresentes na paisagem da ilha de Santiago e das ilhas com maior vocação agrícola, e que em muito contribuem para que desde então os períodos de seca não tenham degenerado em crises alimentares sérias. Neste trabalho fazemos o inventário das diferentes técnicas usadas num esforço colectivo que ganhou um fôlego acrescido depois da independência, e que constitui um dos pilares da sociedade Cabo Verdiana no caminho para o desenvolvimento sustentável.

Erosão dos solos em Cabo Verde - Estudos dos Processos e Quantificação de Três Bacias na Ilha de Santiago

L’archipel du Cap Vert constitué de 10 îles volcaniques appartient à la zone sahélienne qui s’étend de l’atlantique jusqu’à la mer rouge. Depuis, plusieurs décennies le Cap Vert est affecté par la désertification causée en grande partie par la récession climatique et l’érosion des sols. Ces facteurs, associés à la forte pression anthropique sur les ressources, à l’orographie accidentée et à des pluies tropicales parfois diluviennes, provoquent de sérieuses pertes du patrimoine foncier. Cependant, depuis son Indépendance en 1975, le Gouvernement a mené un vaste programme d’arborisation, de restauration des terres et d’aménagement des cours d’eau. Pourtant, très peu de recherches ont été menées pour évaluer les actions de protection et de conservation des sols et des eaux. Par conséquent, il n’existe quasiment pas de données sur la problématique de la dégradation des terres ni de bilans. Dans le cadre de ce travail, nous avons étudié les différents facteurs qui contrôlent l’érosion hydrique des sols. Nous avons plus particulièrement cherché à différencier les effets des activités humaines, notamment agricoles, de ceux des facteurs climatiques comme les précipitations et la génération des écoulements. Nous avons également établi les premiers bilans d’exportations de matières en suspension et en solution dans le contexte de l’archipel du Cap Vert. L’étude a été menée à l’échelle de trois bassins versants de l’ile de Santiago Cap-Vert. Ces trois bassins versant (Longueira, Grande et Godim) sont localisés dans la partie centrale de l’île de Santiago et représentatifs des divers modes d’occupation du sol et des différents climats de l’île. Il existe un gradient climatique entre les trois bassins versants. En effet, Longueira qui présente une superficie de 4,18 km2, une pente moyenne de 47 %, se localise dans une zone humide couverte à 69 % par une forêt et une surface agricole de 17 %. Grande avec une superficie de 1,87 km2, se localise en zone sub humide pour une pente moyenne de 50 %, il est essentiellement agricole. Godim, avec une superficie de 2,0 km2, se localise en zone semi aride, il est particulièrement agricole et sa pente moyenne est de 32 %. Pour ces trois bassins versants, les écoulements de crue à l’exutoire ont été mesurés et échantillonnés de 2004 à 2009. Le bassin versant de Longueira a fait l’objet d’un suivi plus poussé, notamment en termes de fréquence d’échantillonnage et de suivi des écoulements hors crue. Sur chaque échantillon nous avons procédé à la détermination de la concentration des matières en suspension ainsi qu’à l’analyse des éléments majeurs. Les résultats obtenus montrent que l’érosion mécanique dans les 3 bassins versants est caractérisée par une forte variabilité spatiale et temporelle. Sur la période 2005-2009, le bilan moyen annuel pour les bassins versants de Longueira, Grande et Godim est de : 4266, 157 et 10,1 t.km2.an-1 respectivement. La saison humide 2006 a été la plus érosive pour l’ensemble des trois bassins versants et particulièrement dans Longueira avec 2 crues exceptionnelles qui ont généré une concentration moyenne de matières en suspension supérieure à 100 g/l. En revanche, les saisons 2005 et 2008 ont été dans l’ensemble peu érosives car les concentrations moyennes ne dépassèrent pas 20 g/l. Par ailleurs, il n’y a pas eu de lames d’eau écoulées pour les saisons 2005 et 2007 pour le bassin de Godim. Sur le bassin de Longueira, l’étude des phénomènes d’hystérésis permet de caractériser chaque crue et de montrer que l’évolution temporelle des exportations de matières en suspension au cours de la saison est fortement influencée par les activités agricoles. En effet, la première crue provoque l’exportation massive des sédiments disponibles et localisés dans le lit du cours d’eau. En conséquence, la seconde est moins exportatrice de sédiments. Un mois après les premières pluies, les activités de sarclage diminuent la densité du couvert végétal et destructurent la partie superficielle des sols, ce qui provoque à nouveau une très forte exportation de sédiments lors de la troisième crue. Les résultats de l’érosion chimique sur le bassin de Longueira indiquent que le taux d’érosion chimique moyen s’élève à 45 t.km2.an-1 avec une forte variabilité temporelle. En effet, les saisons les plus humides de 2006 et 2007 sont les plus exportatrices de matières en solution, alors que 2005 a eu une faible exportation. L’utilisation du modèle de mélanges EMMA (End-Members Mixing Analysis) montre que les écoulements hypodermique et profond, qui alimentent le cours d’eau en éléments dissous, sont les principaux facteurs de l’érosion chimique. On montre ainsi que les écoulements hors crue sont à l’origine de plus de 90% des flux d’érosion chimique. L’écoulement superficiel, qui contribue à environ 70 % du débit du cours d’eau en crue, constitue un facteur de premier plan de l’érosion mécanique des sols.

Assessment of speed of human locomotion using a differential satellite global positioning system.

PURPOSE: The objective was to explore whether a satellite-based navigation system, global positioning system used in differential mode (DGPS), could accurately assess the speed of running in humans. METHODS: A subject was equipped with a portable GPS receptor coupled to a receiver for differential corrections, while running outdoors on a straight asphalt road at 27 different speeds. Actual speed (reference method) was assessed by chronometry. RESULTS: The accuracy of speed prediction had a standard deviation (SD) of 0.08 km x h(-1) for walking, 0.11 km x h(-1) for running, yielding a coefficient of variation (SD/mean) of 1.38% and 0.82%, respectively. There was a highly significant linear relationship between actual and DGPS speed assessment (r2 = 0.999) with little bias in the prediction equation, because the slope of the regression line was close to unity (0.997). CONCLUSION: the DGPS technique appears to be a valid and inconspicuous tool for "on line" monitoring of the speed of displacement of individuals located on any field on earth, for prolonged periods of time and unlimited distance, but only in specific environmental conditions ("open sky"). Furthermore, the accuracy of speed assessment using the differential GPS mode was improved by a factor of 10 as compared to non-differential GPS.

Spatial distribution of a spherical gall (Hymenoptera, Eulophidae) on Caryocar brasiliense (Caryocaraceae)

We obtained the first data on spatial distribution of a spherical galling insect (Hymenoptera, Eulophidae) at the Caryocar brasiliense Camb. (Caryocaraceae) tree level. This work was developed in two pastures in Montes Claros, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. The areas studied were: pasture 1 (in activity) and pasture 2 (abandoned pasture = savanna in recovery). We evaluated the distribution of spherical galls in: foliage orientation (slope), among leaves (border and interior of the tree crown), among leaflets (right, central, left), distal, median, and proximal as well as border, central area, and adjacent to the mid leaf vein of the leaflet, and difference between areas in 10 infested trees per area. The smaller number of spherical gall/leaflet was observed in pasture 1 than in pasture 2. More spherical galls were found on the northern in pasture 1, but in the pasture 2, the lower spherical galls were observed on the northeast than other slopes. The average number of spherical galls did not differ statistically among the three leaflets of C. brasiliense in pasture 2. However, in pasture 1, we observed highest number of spherical galls in the central leaflet. More spherical galls were found in the border than interior of the tree crown. The average number of spherical galls did not differ statistically among the longitudinal region on leaflet of C. brasiliense. The spherical gall insect preferred to colonize the leaf margin than the central portion or near mid vein on transversal regions on a leaflet.

Experiments on substratum roughness, grainsize and volume influence on the motion and spreading of rock avalanches

The main objective of the research is to link granular physics with the modelling of rock avalanches. Laboratory experiments consist to find a convenient granular material, i.e. grainsize and physical behaviour, and testing it on simple slope geometry. When the appropriate sliding material is selected, we attempted to model the debris avalanche and the spreading on a slope with different substratum to understand the relationship between the volume and the reach angle, i.e. angle of the line joining the top of the scar and the end of the deposit. For a better understanding of the mass spreading, the deposits are scanned with a laser scanner. Datasets are compared to see how the grain size and volume influence a debris avalanche. The relationship between the roughness and grainsize of the substratum shows that the spreading of the sliding mass is increased when the roughness of the substratum starts to be equivalent or greater than the grainsize of the flowing mass. The runout distance displays a more complex relationship, because a long runout distance implies that grains are less spread. This means that if the substratum is too rough the distance diminishes, as well if it is too smooth because the effect on the apparent friction decreases. Up to now our findings do not permit to validate any previous model (Melosh, 1987; Bagnold 1956).

Fixed and random effects in Classical and Bayesian regression

This paper proposes a common and tractable framework for analyzingdifferent definitions of fixed and random effects in a contant-slopevariable-intercept model. It is shown that, regardless of whethereffects (i) are treated as parameters or as an error term, (ii) areestimated in different stages of a hierarchical model, or whether (iii)correlation between effects and regressors is allowed, when the sameinformation on effects is introduced into all estimation methods, theresulting slope estimator is also the same across methods. If differentmethods produce different results, it is ultimately because differentinformation is being used for each methods.

Random measurement error and regression dilution bias.

Summary points: - The bias introduced by random measurement error will be different depending on whether the error is in an exposure variable (risk factor) or outcome variable (disease) - Random measurement error in an exposure variable will bias the estimates of regression slope coefficients towards the null - Random measurement error in an outcome variable will instead increase the standard error of the estimates and widen the corresponding confidence intervals, making results less likely to be statistically significant - Increasing sample size will help minimise the impact of measurement error in an outcome variable but will only make estimates more precisely wrong when the error is in an exposure variable

Uranium-enrichment in soils and plants in the vicinity of a pitchblende vein at La Creusaz-Les Marecottes (W of Martigny, Valais, Switzerland)

In the NE part of the Aiguilles Rouges Massif near Martigny, at the eastern contact of the Variscan Vallorcine granite to adjacent gneisses, a series of pitchblende (UO2)-veins occur. This paper determines the level of enrichment and mobility of uranium in soils situated in the vicinity of such a UO2-vein 7 km west of Martigny. Within an area of 50 x 100 m, situated on a relatively steep slope and characterized by a strong gramma-ray anomaly, six soil profiles including their plant cover and a reference soil profile outside the influence of the UO2-vein have been examined. The soil shows pH-values between 4 and 5 and is colluvial. The applied analytical methods for the metal contents include extraction methods, common for soil studies, and bulk analysis performed with X-ray fluorescence and ICP-MS. Uranium contents found in the uppermost 20 cm of the soil profiles vary from 2,500 ppm close to the vein to 15 ppm at the lowermost point of the study area. The reference soil has around 3 ppm uranium. At greater depth (20 to 40 cm) the U-content decreases to about half of the surface values, indicating a vertical transport of uranium within the soil profile. No systematic dependance of uranium-contents to grain size (amount of clay) nor to the amount of organic matter has been found. However, the good correlation between uranium and free iron oxide concentration suggests adsorption of uranium on iron oxy-hydroxides. The ashes of grass and mosses contain up to 90 ppm U, the blueberry and redwood only up to 3 ppm. Our observations suggest that at the surface the uranium is transported by downhill creep (solifluxion) of uranium-rich rock fragments. Liberated by oxidation of the uppermost fragments in a given soil column, the uranium migrates vertically until the conditions are favourable to adsorption onto Fe-oxy-hydroxides. However, as high U-contents of local surface water show, this adsorption does not lead to a significant retention of the uranium.

Philogenia nemesioi, a new damselfly from Peru (Odonata, Megapodagrionidae)

Philogenia nemesioi, a new damselfly from Peru (Odonata, Megapodagrionidae). Philogenia nemesioi sp. nov. is described and illustrated based on one male specimen collected on forests of the eastern slope of the Peruvian Andes at 900 m. It belongs to the cristalina group, but differs from other species of the group by the structure of the anal appendage.

The IFNL3/4 ΔG variant increases susceptibility to cytomegalovirus retinitis among HIV-infected patients.

BACKGROUND: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) retinitis is a major cause of visual impairment and blindness among patients with uncontrolled HIV infections. Whereas polymorphisms in interferon-lambda 3 (IFNL3, previously named IL28B) strongly influence the clinical course of hepatitis C, few studies examined the role of such polymorphisms in infections due to viruses other than hepatitis C virus. OBJECTIVES: To analyze the association of newly identified IFNL3/4 variant rs368234815 with susceptibility to CMV-associated retinitis in a cohort of HIV-infected patients. DESIGN AND METHODS: This retrospective longitudinal study included 4884 white patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, among whom 1134 were at risk to develop CMV retinitis (CD4 nadir <100 /μl and positive CMV serology). The association of CMV-associated retinitis with rs368234815 was assessed by cumulative incidence curves and multivariate Cox regression models, using the estimated date of HIV infection as a starting point, with censoring at death and/or lost follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 40 individuals among 1134 patients at risk developed CMV retinitis. The minor allele of rs368234815 was associated with a higher risk of CMV retinitis (log-rank test P = 0.007, recessive mode of inheritance). The association was still significant in a multivariate Cox regression model (hazard ratio 2.31, 95% confidence interval 1.09-4.92, P = 0.03), after adjustment for CD4 nadir and slope, HAART and HIV-risk groups. CONCLUSION: We reported for the first time an association between an IFNL3/4 polymorphism and susceptibility to AIDS-related CMV retinitis. IFNL3/4 may influence immunity against viruses other than HCV.