All-pay auction equilibria in contests

We analyze (non-deterministic) contests with anonymous contest success functions. There is no restriction on the number of contestants or on their valuations for the prize. We provide intuitive and easily verifiable conditions for the existence of an equilibrium with properties similar to the one of the (deterministic) all-pay auction. Since these conditions are fulfilled for a wide array of situations, the predictions of this equilibrium are very robust to the specific details of the contest. An application of this result contributes to fill a gap in the analysis of the popular Tullock rent- seeking game because it characterizes properties of an equilibrium for increasing returns to scale larger than two, for any number of contestants and in contests with or without a common value. Keywords: (non-) deterministic contest, all-pay auction, contest success functions. JEL Classification Numbers: C72 (Noncooperative Games), D72 (Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections), D44 (Auctions).

Relación entre tiempo de atención al espejo y conductas indicadoras de autorreconocimiento en orangutanes (Pongo pygmaeus ) y siamangs (Symphalangus syndactylus)

Para medir la capacidad de autorreconocimiento en el espejo en primates no humanos, el procedimiento usualmente utilizado consiste en registrar la frecuencia de comportamientos autodirigidos y autorreferidos. Los resultados obtenidos muestran una alta variabilidad entre sujetos pertenecientes a la misma especie. Este tipo de diferencias individuales no han podido ser explicadas. La hipótesis de trabajo establecer si pueden ser consecuencia de diferencias en el tiempo de atención al espejo. En la primera parte, se registró la cantidad de tiempo que los sujetos prestan atención al espejo y la cantidad de indicadores de autorreconocimiento que muestran. Los individuos que muestran mayores tiempos de atención también muestran frecuencias más altas de indicadores de autorreconocimiento, de acuerdo con una relación lineal entre ambas variables. En la segunda parte, se enriqueció el espejo para provocar un incremento del tiempo de atención en todos los sujetos. La frecuencia de indicadores de autorreconocimiento crece en comparación con una condición control. Los resultados demuestran que la frecuencia absoluta de indicadores de autorreconocimiento está fuertemente afectada por el tiempo de atención al espejo en sujetos de las mismas especies. Un análisis ad hoc. de los datos revela que la frecuencia relativa de conductas de autorreconocimiento sobre el número total de conductas está sólo ligeramente influida por el tiempo de atención y es independiente del nivel de actividad global y, por tanto, podría ser una medida más robusta de autorreconocimiento. De acuerdo a los resultados, los cambios en el tiempo de atención podrían explicar parte de la variabilidad intraespecífica hallada en los estudios de autorreconocimiento en el espejo. Las posibles implicaciones para las diferencias interespecíficas han de ser exploradas en diferentes estudios. Los experimentos han sido realizados en el Parque Zoológico de Barcelona de Febrero de 2007 a Julio de 2007. El proyecto ha tenido una duración global de 14 meses.

In postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, denosumab significantly improved trabecular bone score (TBS), an index of trabecular microarchitecture

Background/Purpose: The trabecular bone score (TBS), a novel graylevel texture index determined from lumbar spine DXA scans, correlates with 3D parameters of trabecular bone microarchitecture known to predict fracture. TBS may enhance the identification of patients at increased risk for vertebral fracture independently of bone mineral density (BMD) (Boutroy JBMR 2010; Hans JBMR 2011). Denosumab treatment for 36 months decreased bone turnover, increased BMD, and reduced new vertebral fractures in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis (Cummings NEJM 2009). We explored the effect of denosumab on TBS over 36 months and evaluated the association between TBS and lumbar spine BMD in women who had DXA scans obtained from eligible scanners for TBS evaluation in FREEDOM. Methods: FREEDOM was a 3-year, randomized, double-blind trial that enrolled postmenopausal women with a lumbar spine or total hip DXA T-score __2.5, but not __4.0 at both sites. Women received placebo or 60 mg denosumab every 6 months. A subset of women in FREEDOM participated in a DXA substudy where lumbar spine DXA scans were obtained at baseline and months 1, 6, 12, 24, and 36. We retrospectively applied, in a blinded-to-treatment manner, a novel software program (TBS iNsightR v1.9, Med-Imaps, Pessac, France) to the standard lumbar spine DXA scans obtained in these women to determine their TBS indices at baseline and months 12, 24, and 36. From previous studies, a TBS _1.35 is considered as normal microarchitecture, a TBS between 1.35 and _1.20 as partially deteriorated, and 1.20 reflects degraded microarchitecture. Results: There were 285 women (128 placebo, 157 denosumab) with a TBS value at baseline and _1 post-baseline visit. Their mean age was 73, their mean lumbar spine BMD T-score was _2.79, and their mean lumbar spine TBS was 1.20. In addition to the robust gains in DXA lumbar spine BMD observed with denosumab (9.8% at month 36), there were consistent, progressive, and significant increases in TBS compared with placebo and baseline (Table & Figure). BMD explained a very small fraction of the variance in TBS at baseline (r2_0.07). In addition, the variance in the TBS change was largely unrelated to BMD change, whether expressed in absolute or percentage changes, regardless of treatment, throughout the study (all r2_0.06); indicating that TBS provides distinct information, independently of BMD. Conclusion: In postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, denosumab significantly improved TBS, an index of lumbar spine trabecular microarchitecture, independently of BMD.

Determinació de diferents compostos bioactius en ingredients naturals per a l'elaboració de bombons funcionals amb beneficis cardiovasculars

Durant les darreres dècades, i degut, principalment, a un canvi en els hàbits alimentaris, hi ha hagut un augment a nivell mundial de malalties cròniques (l’obesitat, malalties cardiovasculars, etc.). En els països mediterranis hi ha menys incidència d’aquestes malalties i sembla ser que això es deu a l’anomenada dieta mediterrània. La dieta mediterrània es caracteritza per una combinació d’oli d’oliva com a grassa principal, verdures, hortalisses i fruites en abundància, lleguminoses, fruits secs, formatges i iogurt, peix, pa, pasta, cereals i els seus derivats i un consum moderat de vi i carns. Aquest model alimentari, ric en tocoferols, fitosterols i fitoestanols que ajuden a reduir el contingut de colesterol en sang, fa que en les poblacions mediterrànies hi hagi menys incidència de malalties cardiovasculars. Aquests compostos inhibeixen el deteriorament oxidatiu dels olis, actuen com agent antipolimerització per olis de fregir. Tenen capacitat de reduir els nivells de colesterol, evitant la incidència de malalties cardiovasculars. Els fitoesterols y fitoestanols es poden trobar en forma lliure o esterificada amb àcids grassos, àcids fenòlics i glucosa. Els objectius d’ aquest treball han estat, primer en el desenvolupament de mètodes d'anàlisi ràpids, fiables i robusts dels tocoferols, fitoesterols i fitoestanols i la seva aplicació en fruits sec, oli de segó, oli de pinyol de raïm i productes que els continguin. El primer mètode va estar basat en la cromatografía líquida (HPLC-DAD) amb extracció en fase sòlida (SPE) com tècnica alternativa a la saponificació para la determinació de fitoesterols lliures. Aquest mètode va estar aplicada a mostres de bombons que contenia fitoesterols. El segon mètode va estar basat en la cromatografia de gasos (GCFID) amb aponificació i SPE per quantificar fitoesterols i fitoestanols lliures, esterificats i totals. En els documents annexos es descriuen a profunditat els mètodes desenvolupats.

In Search of a theory of debt management

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market approach to debt management is valid even when the government only issues non-contingent bonds. A number of authors conclude from this approach that governments should issue long term debt and invest in short term assets. We argue that the conclusions of this approach are too fragile to serve as a basis for policy recommendations. This is because bonds at different maturities have highly correlated returns, causing the determination of the optimal portfolio to be ill-conditioned. To make this point concrete we examine the implications of this approach to debt management in various models, both analytically and using numerical methods calibrated to the US economy. We find the complete market approach recommends asset positions which are huge multiples of GDP. Introducing persistent shocks or capital accumulation only worsens this problem. Increasing the volatility of interest rates through habits partly reduces the size of these simulations we find no presumption that governments should issue long term debt ? policy recommendations can be easily reversed through small perturbations in the specification of shocks or small variations in the maturity of bonds issued. We further extend the literature by removing the assumption that governments every period costlessly repurchase all outstanding debt. This exacerbates the size of the required positions, worsens their volatility and in some cases produces instability in debt holdings. We conclude that it is very difficult to insulate fiscal policy from shocks by using the complete markets approach to debt management. Given the limited variability of the yield curve using maturities is a poor way to substitute for state contingent debt. The result is the positions recommended by this approach conflict with a number of features that we believe are important in making bond markets incomplete e.g allowing for transaction costs, liquidity effects, etc.. Until these features are all fully incorporated we remain in search of a theory of debt management capable of providing robust policy insights.

Using life strategies to explore the vulnerability of ecosystem services to invasion by alien plants

Invasive plants can have different effects of ecosystem functioning and on the provision of ecosystem services, from strongly deleterious impacts to positive effects. The nature and intensity of such effects will depend on the service and ecosystem being considered, but also on features of life strategies of invaders that influence their invasiveness as well as their influence of key processes of receiving ecosystems. To address the combined effect of these various factors we developed a robust and efficient methodological framework that allows to identify areas of possible conflict between ecosystem services and alien invasive plants, considering interactions between landscape invasibility and species invasiveness. Our framework combines the statistical robustness of multi-model inference, efficient techniques to map ecosystem services, and life strategies as a functional link between invasion, functional changes and potential provision of services by invaded ecosystems. The framework was applied to a test region in Portugal, for which we could successfully predict the current patterns of plant invasion, of ecosystem service provision, and finally of probable conflict (expressing concern for negative impacts, and value for positive impacts on services) between alien species richness (total and per plant life strategy) and the potential provision of selected services. Potential conflicts were identified for all combinations of plant strategy and ecosystem service, with an emphasis for those concerning conflicts with carbon sequestration, water regulation and wood production. Lower levels of conflict were obtained between invasive plant strategies and the habitat for biodiversity supporting service. The added value of the proposed framework in the context of landscape management and planning is discussed in perspective of anticipation of conflicts, mitigation of negative impacts, and potentiation of positive effects of plant invasions on ecosystems and their services.

Phenotypic consequences of copy number variation: insights from Smith-Magenis and Potocki-Lupski syndrome mouse models.

A large fraction of genome variation between individuals is comprised of submicroscopic copy number variation of genomic DNA segments. We assessed the relative contribution of structural changes and gene dosage alterations on phenotypic outcomes with mouse models of Smith-Magenis and Potocki-Lupski syndromes. We phenotyped mice with 1n (Deletion/+), 2n (+/+), 3n (Duplication/+), and balanced 2n compound heterozygous (Deletion/Duplication) copies of the same region. Parallel to the observations made in humans, such variation in gene copy number was sufficient to generate phenotypic consequences: in a number of cases diametrically opposing phenotypes were associated with gain versus loss of gene content. Surprisingly, some neurobehavioral traits were not rescued by restoration of the normal gene copy number. Transcriptome profiling showed that a highly significant propensity of transcriptional changes map to the engineered interval in the five assessed tissues. A statistically significant overrepresentation of the genes mapping to the entire length of the engineered chromosome was also found in the top-ranked differentially expressed genes in the mice containing rearranged chromosomes, regardless of the nature of the rearrangement, an observation robust across different cell lineages of the central nervous system. Our data indicate that a structural change at a given position of the human genome may affect not only locus and adjacent gene expression but also "genome regulation." Furthermore, structural change can cause the same perturbation in particular pathways regardless of gene dosage. Thus, the presence of a genomic structural change, as well as gene dosage imbalance, contributes to the ultimate phenotype.

Validation of the IMPACT-III quality of life questionnaire in Swiss children with inflammatory bowel disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) frequently manifests during childhood and adolescence. For providing and understanding a comprehensive picture of a patients' health status, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) instruments are an essential complement to clinical symptoms and functional limitations. Currently, the IMPACT-III questionnaire is one of the most frequently used disease-specific HRQoL instrument among patients with IBD. However, there is a lack of studies examining the validation and reliability of this instrument. METHODS: 146 paediatric IBD patients from the multicenter Swiss IBD paediatric cohort study database were included in the study. Medical and laboratory data were extracted from the hospital records. HRQoL data were assessed by means of standardized questionnaires filled out by the patients in a face-to-face interview. RESULTS: The original six IMPACT-III domain scales could not be replicated in the current sample. A principal component analysis with the extraction of four factor scores revealed the most robust solution. The four factors indicated good internal reliability (Cronbach's alpha=.64-.86), good concurrent validity measured by correlations with the generic KIDSCREEN-27 scales and excellent discriminant validity for the dimension of physical functioning measured by HRQoL differences for active and inactive severity groups (p<.001, d=1.04). CONCLUSIONS: This study with Swiss children with IBD indicates good validity and reliability for the IMPACT-III questionnaire. However, our findings suggest a slightly different factor structure than originally proposed. The IMPACT-III questionnaire can be recommended for its use in clinical practice. The factor structure should be further examined in other samples.

Factors associated with latent tuberculosis among asylum seekers in Switzerland: a cross-sectional study in Vaud County.

BACKGROUND: Screening and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in asylum seekers (AS) may prevent future cases of tuberculosis. As the screening with Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) is costly, the objective of this study was to assess which factors were associated with LTBI and to define a score allowing the selection of AS with the highest risk of LTBI. METHODS: In across-sectional study, AS seekers recently arrived in Vaud County, after screening for tuberculosis at the border were offered screening for LTBI with T-SPOT.TB and questionnaire on potentially risk factors. The factors associated with LTBI were analyzed by univariate and multivariate regression. RESULTS: Among 393 adult AS, 98 (24.93%) had a positive IGRA response, five of them with active tuberculosis previously undetected. Six factors associated with LTBI were identified in multivariate analysis: origin, travel conditions, marital status, cough, age and prior TB exposure. Their combination leads to a robust LTBI predictive score. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of LTBI and active tuberculosis in AS is high. A predictive score integrating six factors could identify the asylum seekers with the highest risk for LTBI.

Efficient knowledge retrieval to calibrate input variables in forest fire prediction

Forest fires are a serious threat to humans and nature from an ecological, social and economic point of view. Predicting their behaviour by simulation still delivers unreliable results and remains a challenging task. Latest approaches try to calibrate input variables, often tainted with imprecision, using optimisation techniques like Genetic Algorithms. To converge faster towards fitter solutions, the GA is guided with knowledge obtained from historical or synthetical fires. We developed a robust and efficient knowledge storage and retrieval method. Nearest neighbour search is applied to find the fire configuration from knowledge base most similar to the current configuration. Therefore, a distance measure was elaborated and implemented in several ways. Experiments show the performance of the different implementations regarding occupied storage and retrieval time with overly satisfactory results.

Earnings management and cultural values

Using theory and empirical data from social psychology to measure for cultural differences between countries, we study the effect of individualism as defined by Hofstede (1980) and egalitarianism as defined by Schwartz (1994, 1999, 2004) on earnings management. We find a significant influence of both cultural measures. In line with Licht et al. (2004), who argue that individualistic societies may be less susceptible to corruption, we find that countries scoring high on individualism tend to have lower levels of earnings management. In addition, we find that egalitarianism, defined as a society's cultural orientation with respect to intolerance for abuses of market and political power, is negatively related with earnings management. Our results are robust to different specifications and controls. The main message of this paper is that besides formal institutions, cultural differences are relevant to explain earnings management behaviour. We think that our work adds to the understanding of the importance of cultural values in managerial behaviour across countries contributing to the literature on earnings management and law and institutions.

Lowering blood alcohol content levels to save lives: The european experience

Road safety has become an increasing concern in developed countries due to the significant amount of mortal victims and the economic losses derived. Only in 2005 these losses rose to 200.000 million euros, a significant amount - approximately the 2% of its GDP- that easily justifies any public intervention. One tool used by governments to face this challenge is the enactment of stricter policies and regulations. Since drunk driving is one of the most important concerns of public authorities on this field, several European countries decided to lower their illegal Blood Alcohol Content levels to 0.5 mg/ml during the last decade. This study evaluates for the first time the effectiveness of this transition using European panel-based data (CARE) for the period 1991-2003 using the Differences-in-Differences method in a fixed effects estimation that allows for any pattern of correlation (Cluster-Robust). My results show the existence of positive impacts on certain groups of road users and for the whole population when the policy is accompanied by some enforcement interventions. Moreover, a time lag of more than two years is found in that effectiveness. Finally, I also assert the importance of controlling for serial correlation in the evaluation of this kind of policies.

Communication for Public Goods

This paper studies information transmission between multiple agents with di¤erent preferences and a welfare maximizing decision maker who chooses the quality or quantity of a public good (e.g. provision of public health service; carbon emissions policy; pace of lectures in a classroom) that is consumed by all of them. Communication in such circumstances suffers from the agents' incentive to "exaggerate" their preferences relative to the average of the other agents, since the decision maker's reaction to each agent's message is weaker than in one-to-one communication. As the number of agents becomes larger the quality of information transmission diminishes. The use of binary messages (e.g. "yes" or "no") is shown to be a robust mode of communication when the main source of informational distortion is exaggeration.

Do Institutions Matter for Foreign Direct Investment?

In this paper the role of institutions in determining foreign direct investment (FDI) is investigated using a large panel of 107 countries during 1981 and 2005. We find that institutions are a robust predictor of FDI and that the most significant institutional aspects are linked to propriety rights, the rule of law and expropriation risk. Using a novel data set, we also study the impact of institutions on FDI at the sectoral level. We find that institutions do not have a significant impact on FDI in the primary sector but that institutional quality matters for FDI in manufacturing and particularly in services. We also provide policy implications for institutional reform.

Pervasive positive selection on duplicated and nonduplicated vertebrate protein coding genes.

A stringent branch-site codon model was used to detect positive selection in vertebrate evolution. We show that the test is robust to the large evolutionary distances involved. Positive selection was detected in 77% of 884 genes studied. Most positive selection concerns a few sites on a single branch of the phylogenetic tree: Between 0.9% and 4.7% of sites are affected by positive selection depending on the branches. No functional category was overrepresented among genes under positive selection. Surprisingly, whole genome duplication had no effect on the prevalence of positive selection, whether the fish-specific genome duplication or the two rounds at the origin of vertebrates. Thus positive selection has not been limited to a few gene classes, or to specific evolutionary events such as duplication, but has been pervasive during vertebrate evolution.