Determinants of credit risk in secured loans – Evidence from the auto loan industry

The purpose of this study is to examine attributes which have explanation power to the probability of default or serious overdue in secured auto loans. Another goal is to find out differences between defaulted loans and loans which have had payment difficulties but survived without defaulting. 19 independent variables used in this study reflect information available at the time of credit decision. These variables were tested with logistic regression and backward elimination procedure. The data includes 8931 auto loans from a Finnish finance company. 1118 of the contracts were taken by company customers and 7813 by private customers. 130 of the loans defaulted and 584 had serious payment problems but did not default. The maturities of those loans were from one month to 60 months and they have ended during year 2011. The LTV (loan-to-value) variable was ranked as the most significant explainer because of its strong positive relationship with probability of payment difficulties. Another important explainer in this study was the credit rating variable which got a negative relationship with payment problems. Also maturity and car age performed well having both a positive relationship with the probability of payment problems. When compared default and serious overdue situations, the most significant differences were found in the roles of LTV, Maturity and Gender variables.

Frequency of Equine Monocytic Ehrlichiosis (EME) in Brazil

From a cross-sectional observational study with convenience samples, 347 blood samples from horses were collected from different physiographic regions, as follows: Santa Catarina Plateau (Santa Catarina State - SC), Médio Paraíba do Sul (São Paulo State - SP and Rio de Janeiro State RJ), Mountainous and Metropolitan regions (Rio de Janeiro State - RJ). Samples were tested for the presence of antibodies (IgG) anti Neorickettsia risticii by indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA). The frequency obtained in this study corroborates with the ones obtained in the U.S.A., which refers to endemic regions. Fisher's exact test showed significant differences in the number of positive animals between regions, indicating that the probability of an animal becoming infected varies depending on the area. The CI 95% revealed no association between infection and geopolitical space. Moreover, Odds ratio test showed differences of an animal getting infected in different regions. This event could be influenced by the type of treatment used in each area, as the seasonal frequency of injury or even potential vectors. Therefore, there are seropositive animals for N. risticii in the studied areas, suggesting that this agent may be circulating in those regions. Future studies mainly based on molecular analyzes are needed to confirm these serological findings.

Aspergillus fumigatus from normal and condemned carcasses with airsacculitis in commercial poultry

Carcass inspection is important for the detection of certain diseases and for monitoring their prevalence in slaughterhouses. The objective of this study was to assess the occurrence of aspergillosis caused by Aspergillus fumigatus in commercial poultry, through mycological and histopathological diagnosis, and to verify the causal association between the aspergillosis diagnosis criteria and condemnation due to airsacculitis in broilers through a case-control study. The study was carried out with 380 samples. Lungs were collected from broilers that were condemned (95) or not condemned (285) due to airsacculitis directly from the slaughter line. Forty-six (12%) lung samples were positive for A. fumigatus in mycological culture. Among all samples, 177 (46.6%) presented histopathological alterations, with necrotic, fibrinous, heterophilic pneumonia; heterophilic pneumonia and lymphoid hyperplasia being the most frequent. Out of the 380 lungs analyzed, 65.2% (30) showed histopathological alterations and isolation of fungi. The statistical analysis (McNemar's chi-square test) indicated a significant association between the presence of histopathological lesions and the isolation of A. fumigatus. Mycological cultivation and histopathological diagnosis increase the probability of detecting pulmonary alterations in birds condemned by the Final Inspection System, which suggests that such diagnostic criteria can improve the assessment and condemnation of birds affected by airsacculitis.

Auscultatory and electrocardiographic characteristics of Crioulo horses

In order to determine auscultatory and electrocardiographic characteristics of Crioulo horses, one hundred animals ranging between one and twenty-six years of age (21 stallions, nine geldings, 27 pregnant mares e 43 not pregnant mares) were evaluated. The cardiac auscultation was performed during the clinical examination of the cardiovascular system, evaluating frequency, rate, normal and abnormal heart sounds (heart murmurs). The electrocardiographic examination followed the bipolar base-apex derivative system with animals at rest, by using an ECG-PC TEB equipment. The cardiac frequency, heart rate, morphology, duration, wave and complex amplitudes and interval durations were determined. The results were submitted to ANOVA and Tukey tests with an error probability of 5%. The cardiac auscultation revealed presence of functional systolic and diastolic murmur (10.00%) and systolic murmur compatible with tricuspid regurgitation besides normal heart sounds S1 (100.0%), S2 (100.0%), S3 (19.0%) and S4 (34.0%). The cardiac frequency obtained the average of 43.64 bpm, observing significative differences in relation to sexual and age factors and training level. The sinus rhythm was the most frequent (57.00%), followed by sinus tachycardia (38.00%) and sinus arrhythmia (5.00%), being observed rhythm disturbances in 16% of tracings. The P and T waves were observed more frequently in their forms P bifida positive (95.00%) and biphasic T (91.00%), being variable at tracing. There were also observed Q waves in 12.00% of the tracings. Thus, it was concluded that the auscultatory characteristics of Crioulo horses are according to the described in the literature for the species and the sexual factor, category, age factor and training level can influence some electrocardiographic parameters.

Capacity of an I-beam made of S960 QC based on Eurocode 3

The capacity of beams is a very important factor in the study of durability of structures and structural members. The capacity of a high-strength steel I-beam made of S960 QC was investigated in this study. The investigation included assessment of the service limits and ultimate limits of the steel beam. The thesis was done according to European standards for steel structures, Eurocode 3. An analytical method was used to determine the throat thickness, deformation, elastic and plastic moment capacities as well as the fatigue life of the beam. The results of the analytical method were compared with those obtained by Finite Element Analysis (FEA). Elastic moment capacity obtained by the analytical method was 172 kNm. FEA and the analytical method predicted the maximum lateral-torsional buckling (LTB) capacity in the range of 90-93 kNm and the probability of failure as a result of LTB is estimated to be 50%. The lateral buckling capacity meant that the I-beam can carry a safe load of 300 kN instead of the initial load of 600 kN. The beam is liable to fail shortly after exceeding the elastic moment capacity. Based on results in of the different approaches, it was noted that FEA predicted higher deformation values on the load-deformation curve than the analytical results. However, both FEA and the analytical methods predicted identical results for nominal stress range and moment capacities. Fatigue life was estimated to be in the range of 53000-64000 cycles for bending stress range using crack propagation equation and strength-life approach. As Eurocode 3 is limited to steel grades up to S690, results for S960 must be verified with experimental data and appropriate design rules.

Serological monitoring of antibodies for an early diagnosis ofaspergillosis in captive penguins

Abstract: This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of detection of anti-Aspergillus fumigatus antibodies in captive penguins by double radial agar gel immunodiffusion (AGID) for the aspergillosis diagnosis. We included 134 Magellanic penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus) in rehabilitation at the Center for Recovery of Marine Animals (CRAM / FURG). All of them were monitored by AGID weekly until its final destination (death or release), totalizing 660 serum samples studied. All animals were clinically accompanied and post-mortem examinations was performed in penguins that died during the studied period. A total of 28% (37/134) of the penguins died, 89.2% (33/37) due to aspergillosis, 11% (4/37) by other causes and 97 were released. From the 33 animals with proven aspergillosis, 21 presented anti- A. fumigatus antibodies by AGID, being the average interval between death and positive AGID 16.4 days. Twelve animals with negative serology died of aspergillosis. The sensitivity and specificity rates were 63.6% and 95% respectively, and the positive and negative predictive values were 80.7% and 88.9% respectively. These data demonstrate that the serological monitoring for detection of antibodies by AGID can be an important tool for the diagnosis of aspergillosis in penguins.

Statistical analysis of survey-based event history data with application to modeling of unemployment duration

Longitudinal surveys are increasingly used to collect event history data on person-specific processes such as transitions between labour market states. Surveybased event history data pose a number of challenges for statistical analysis. These challenges include survey errors due to sampling, non-response, attrition and measurement. This study deals with non-response, attrition and measurement errors in event history data and the bias caused by them in event history analysis. The study also discusses some choices faced by a researcher using longitudinal survey data for event history analysis and demonstrates their effects. These choices include, whether a design-based or a model-based approach is taken, which subset of data to use and, if a design-based approach is taken, which weights to use. The study takes advantage of the possibility to use combined longitudinal survey register data. The Finnish subset of European Community Household Panel (FI ECHP) survey for waves 1–5 were linked at person-level with longitudinal register data. Unemployment spells were used as study variables of interest. Lastly, a simulation study was conducted in order to assess the statistical properties of the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting (IPCW) method in a survey data context. The study shows how combined longitudinal survey register data can be used to analyse and compare the non-response and attrition processes, test the missingness mechanism type and estimate the size of bias due to non-response and attrition. In our empirical analysis, initial non-response turned out to be a more important source of bias than attrition. Reported unemployment spells were subject to seam effects, omissions, and, to a lesser extent, overreporting. The use of proxy interviews tended to cause spell omissions. An often-ignored phenomenon classification error in reported spell outcomes, was also found in the data. Neither the Missing At Random (MAR) assumption about non-response and attrition mechanisms, nor the classical assumptions about measurement errors, turned out to be valid. Both measurement errors in spell durations and spell outcomes were found to cause bias in estimates from event history models. Low measurement accuracy affected the estimates of baseline hazard most. The design-based estimates based on data from respondents to all waves of interest and weighted by the last wave weights displayed the largest bias. Using all the available data, including the spells by attriters until the time of attrition, helped to reduce attrition bias. Lastly, the simulation study showed that the IPCW correction to design weights reduces bias due to dependent censoring in design-based Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard model estimators. The study discusses implications of the results for survey organisations collecting event history data, researchers using surveys for event history analysis, and researchers who develop methods to correct for non-sampling biases in event history data.

Risk Assessment of a Supplier in the Pharmaceutical Industry

The topic of this Master’s Thesis is risk assessment in the supply chain, and the work was done for a company operating in the pharmaceutical industry. The unique features of the industry bring additional challenges to risk management, due to high regulatory, docu-mentation and traceability requirements. The objective of the thesis was to generate a template for assessing the risks in the supply chain of current and potential suppliers of the case company. Risks pertaining to the case setting were sought mainly from in-house expertise of this specific product and supply chain as well as academic research papers and theory on risk management. A questionnaire was set up to assess the found risks on impact, occurrence and possibility of detection. Through this classification of the severity of the risks, the supplier assessment template was formed. A questionnaire template, comprised of the top 10 risks affecting the flow of information and materials in this setting, was formulated to serve as a generic tool for assessing risks in the supply chain of a pharmaceutical company. The template was tested on another supplier for usability and accuracy of found risks, and it demonstrated functioning in a differing supply chain and product setting.

Optimization and validation of the solid-liquid extraction technique for determination of picloram in soils by high performance liquid chromatography

The objective of this study was to optimize and validate the solid-liquid extraction (ESL) technique for determination of picloram residues in soil samples. At the optimization stage, the optimal conditions for extraction of soil samples were determined using univariate analysis. Ratio soil/solution extraction, type and time of agitation, ionic strength and pH of extraction solution were evaluated. Based on the optimized parameters, the following method of extraction and analysis of picloram was developed: weigh 2.00 g of soil dried and sieved through a sieve mesh of 2.0 mm pore, add 20.0 mL of KCl concentration of 0.5 mol L-1, shake the bottle in the vortex for 10 seconds to form suspension and adjust to pH 7.00, with alkaline KOH 0.1 mol L-1. Homogenate the system in a shaker system for 60 minutes and then let it stand for 10 minutes. The bottles are centrifuged for 10 minutes at 3,500 rpm. After the settlement of the soil particles and cleaning of the supernatant extract, an aliquot is withdrawn and analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography. The optimized method was validated by determining the selectivity, linearity, detection and quantification limits, precision and accuracy. The ESL methodology was efficient for analysis of residues of the pesticides studied, with percentages of recovery above 90%. The limits of detection and quantification were 20.0 and 66.0 mg kg-1 soil for the PVA, and 40.0 and 132.0 mg kg-1 soil for the VLA. The coefficients of variation (CV) were equal to 2.32 and 2.69 for PVA and TH soils, respectively. The methodology resulted in low organic solvent consumption and cleaner extracts, as well as no purification steps for chromatographic analysis were required. The parameters evaluated in the validation process indicated that the ESL methodology is efficient for the extraction of picloram residues in soils, with low limits of detection and quantification.

Effect of plant density and seed position on mother plant on physiological characteristic of cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium) seeds

Experiments were conducted in 2010 to determine the influence of plant density and seed position on the mother plant on seed physiological characteristics of cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium). Cocklebur burs were collected in fall of 2010 from Research Farm of University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources of Gorgan, Iran. The experiment was established as factorial arrangement using a completely randomized design with three replications. The factors included different densities of cocklebur (0, 2, 4, 6 and 8 plant m-2) and the top and bottom parts of the canopy. Non dormant seeds were used for determining cardinal temperatures and tolerance to salinity and drought stresses. Base, optimum and ceiling germination temperatures were estimated between 7.09 to 12.33, 32 to 35 and 44 to 45 respectively in different treatments. Salinity stress up to 300 Mm and osmotic potential 8 bar inhibited the germination completely. Comparison of base temperatures and sigmoid equation coefficients showed that seeds produced in the top had higher germination than those that produced at the bottom of the mother plant. It seems plant densities through seed position on the mother plant affect seed quality. Likewise changes of light quality and quantity in shade environment increased seed dormancy in matured seeds. Shade environment affect seed germination on mother plant that increased dormancy of seeds maturing under shade be an adaptive response that reduces the probability of germination of offspring under unfavorable (shade, competitive) conditions.

From Molecular Blocks To Bioanalytical Assays: Combining Lanthanide Luminescence and Bioaffinity Binders for Protein Detection

Measuring protein biomarkers from sample matrix, such as plasma, is one of the basic tasks in clinical diagnostics. Bioanalytical assays used for the measuring should be able to measure proteins with high sensitivity and specificity. Furthermore, multiplexing capability would also be advantageous. To ensure the utility of the diagnostic test in point-of-care setting, additional requirements such as short turn-around times, ease-ofuse and low costs need to be met. On the other hand, enhancement of assay sensitivity could enable exploiting novel biomarkers, which are present in very low concentrations and which the current immunoassays are unable to measure. Furthermore, highly sensitive assays could enable the use of minimally invasive sampling. In the development of high-sensitivity assays the label technology and affinity binders are in pivotal role. Additionally, innovative assay designs contribute to the obtained sensitivity and other characteristics of the assay as well as its applicability. The aim of this thesis was to study the impact of assay components on the performance of both homogeneous and heterogeneous assays. Applicability of two different lanthanide-based label technologies, upconverting nanoparticles and switchable lanthanide luminescence, to protein detection was explored. Moreover, the potential of recombinant antibodies and aptamers as alternative affinity binders were evaluated. Additionally, alternative conjugation chemistries for production of the labeled binders were studied. Different assay concepts were also evaluated with respect to their applicability to point-of-care testing, which requires simple yet sensitive methods. The applicability of upconverting nanoparticles to the simultaneous quantitative measurement of multiple analytes using imaging-based detection was demonstrated. Additionally, the required instrumentation was relatively simple and inexpensive compared to other luminescent lanthanide-based labels requiring time-resolved measurement. The developed homogeneous assays exploiting switchable lanthanide luminescence were rapid and simple to perform and thus applicable even to point-ofcare testing. The sensitivities of the homogeneous assays were in the picomolar range, which are still inadequate for some analytes, such as cardiac troponins, requiring ultralow limits of detection. For most analytes, however, the obtained limits of detection were sufficient. The use of recombinant antibody fragments and aptamers as binders allowed site-specific and controlled covalent conjugation to construct labeled binders reproducibly either by using chemical modification or recombinant technology. Luminescent lanthanide labels were shown to be widely applicable for protein detection in various assay setups and to contribute assay sensitivity.

Effect of meconium ileus on the clinical prognosis of patients with cystic fibrosis

The objective of the present study was to determine the possible prognostic factors which may explain the difference in the survival of patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) with and without meconium ileus. Over a period of 20 years, 127 patients with CF, whose diagnosis was confirmed by typical clinical characteristics and altered sweat chloride levels, were studied retrospectively. The patients were divided into two groups: group 1 consisted of patients who presented CF and meconium ileus (N = 9), and group 2 consisted of patients with CF without meconium ileus (N = 118). The characteristics studied were based on data obtained upon admission of the patients using a specific protocol. Demographic, clinical, nutritional and laboratory data were obtained. The genotype was determined in 106 patients by PCR. Survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. The median follow-up period was 44 months. A statistically significant difference was observed between the groups studied regarding the following variables: age at diagnosis and weight and height z scores. The presence of meconium ileus was associated with an earlier diagnosis; these patients had greater deficits in height and weight at the time of diagnosis and at the end of the study. The estimated probability of survival for patients with CF without meconium ileus was 62 ± 14% and for those with meconium ileus 32 ± 18%. Patients with CF and meconium ileus presented a poor nutritional status at diagnosis and a lower survival rate compared to the general CF population.

Correlation of mixed lymphocyte culture with chronic graft-versus-host disease following allogeneic stem cell transplantation

The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the mixed lymphocyte culture as a predictive assay of acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). We studied 153 patients who received a first bone marrow transplantation from human leukocyte antigen-identical siblings. Acute GVHD was observed in 26 of 128 (20.3%) patients evaluated and chronic GVHD occurred in 60 of 114 (52.6%). One-way mixed lymphocyte culture (MLC) assays were performed by the standard method. MLC results are reported as the relative response (RR) from donor against patient cells. The responses ranged from -47.0 to 40.7%, with a median of 0.5%. The Kaplan-Meier probability of developing GVHD was determined for patients with positive and negative MLC. There was no significant difference in incidence of acute GVHD between the groups studied. However, the incidence of chronic GVHD was higher in recipients with RR >4.5% than in those with RR <=4.5%. The Cox Proportional Hazards model was used to examine the effect of MLC levels on incidence of chronic GVHD, while adjusting for the potential confounding effect of others suspected or observed risk factors. The relative risk of chronic GVHD was 2.5 for patients with positive MLC (RR >4.5%), 2.9 for those who received peripheral blood progenitor cells as a graft, and 2.2 for patients who developed previous acute GVHD. MLC was not useful for predicting acute GVHD, but MLC with RR >4.5% associated with other risk factors could predict the development of chronic GVHD, being of help for the prevention and/or treatment of this late complication.

Predicting bankruptcy of Finnish limited liability companies from historical financial statements

This master’s thesis studies the probability of bankruptcy of Finnish limited liability companies as a part of credit risk assessment. The main idea of this thesis is to build and test bankruptcy prediction models for Finnish limited liability companies that can be utilized in credit decision making. The data used in this thesis consists of historical financial statements from 2112 Finnish limited liability companies, half of which have filed for bankruptcy. A total of four models are developed, two with logistic regression and two with multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA). The time horizon of the models varies from 1 to 2 years prior to the bankruptcy, and 14 different financial variables are used in the model formation. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the models ranges between 81.7% and 88.9%, and the best prediction accuracy is achieved with the one year prior the bankruptcy logistic regression model. However the difference between the best logistic model and the best MDA model is minimal. Overall based on the results of this thesis it can be concluded that predicting bankruptcy is possible to some extent, but naturally the results are not perfect.

Rarity of DNA sequence alterations in the promoter region of the human androgen receptor gene

The human androgen receptor (AR) gene promoter lies in a GC-rich region containing two principal sites of transcription initiation and a putative Sp1 protein-binding site, without typical "TATA" and "CAAT" boxes. It has been suggested that mutations within the 5'untranslated region (5'UTR) may contribute to the development of prostate cancer by changing the rates of gene transcription and/or translation. In order to investigate this question, the aim of the present study was to search for the presence of mutations or polymorphisms at the AR-5'UTR in 92 prostate cancer patients, where histological diagnosis of adenocarcinoma was established in specimens obtained from transurethral resection or after prostatectomy. The AR-5'UTR was amplified by PCR from genomic DNA samples of the patients and of 100 healthy male blood donors, included as controls. Conformation-sensitive gel electrophoresis was used for DNA sequence alteration screening. Only one band shift was detected in one individual from the blood donor group. Sequencing revealed a new single nucleotide deletion (T) in the most conserved portion of the promoter region at position +36 downstream from the transcription initiation site I. Although the effect of this specific mutation remains unknown, its rarity reveals the high degree of sequence conservation of the human androgen promoter region. Moreover, the absence of detectable variation within the critical 5'UTR in prostate cancer patients indicates a low probability of its involvement in prostate cancer etiology.