Stochastic Modeling of Reversible Biochemical Reaction-Diffusion Systems and High-Resolution Shock-Capturing Methods for Fluid Interfaces

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Spatial modeling of data with excessive zeros applied to reindeer pellet-group counts

We analyze a real data set pertaining to reindeer fecal pellet-group counts obtained from a survey conducted in a forest area in northern Sweden. In the data set, over 70% of counts are zeros, and there is high spatial correlation. We use conditionally autoregressive random effects for modeling of spatial correlation in a Poisson generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), quasi-Poisson hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and hurdle models. The quasi-Poisson HGLM allows for both under- and overdispersion with excessive zeros, while the ZIP and hurdle models allow only for overdispersion. In analyzing the real data set, we see that the quasi-Poisson HGLMs can perform better than the other commonly used models, for example, ordinary Poisson HGLMs, spatial ZIP, and spatial hurdle models, and that the underdispersed Poisson HGLMs with spatial correlation fit the reindeer data best. We develop R codes for fitting these models using a unified algorithm for the HGLMs. Spatial count response with an extremely high proportion of zeros, and underdispersion can be successfully modeled using the quasi-Poisson HGLM with spatial random effects.

Analysis on the connotation of probability in the artificial intelligence algorithm for economic decision making.

This paper analyzes the inner relations between classical sub-scheme probability and statistic probability, subjective probability and objective probability, prior probability and posterior probability, transition probability and probability of utility, and further analysis the goal, method, and its practical economic purpose which represent by these various probability from the perspective of mathematics, so as to deeply understand there connotation and its relation with economic decision making, thus will pave the route for scientific predication and decision making.

Mackey topology on locally convex spaces and on locally quasi-convex groups. Similarities and historical remarks

A counterpart of the Mackey–Arens Theorem for the class of locally quasi-convex topological Abelian groups (LQC-groups) was initiated in Chasco et al. (Stud Math 132(3):257–284, 1999). Several authors have been interested in the problems posed there and have done clarifying contributions, although the main question of that source remains open. Some differences between the Mackey Theory for locally convex spaces and for locally quasi-convex groups, stem from the following fact: The supremum of all compatible locally quasi-convex topologies for a topological abelian group G may not coincide with the topology of uniform convergence on the weak quasi-convex compact subsets of the dual groupG∧. Thus, a substantial part of the classical Mackey–Arens Theorem cannot be generalized to LQC-groups. Furthermore, the mentioned fact gives rise to a grading in the property of “being a Mackey group”, as defined and thoroughly studied in Díaz Nieto and Martín-Peinador (Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics 80:119–144, 2014). At present it is not known—and this is the main open question—if the supremum of all the compatible locally quasi-convex topologies on a topological group is in fact a compatible topology. In the present paper we do a sort of historical review on the Mackey Theory, and we compare it in the two settings of locally convex spaces and of locally quasi-convex groups. We point out some general questions which are still open, under the name of Problems.

Support vector machines to detect physiological patterns for EEG and EMG-based human-computer interaction:a review

Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are widely used classifiers for detecting physiological patterns in Human-Computer Interaction (HCI). Their success is due to their versatility, robustness and large availability of free dedicated toolboxes. Frequently in the literature, insufficient details about the SVM implementation and/or parameters selection are reported, making it impossible to reproduce study analysis and results. In order to perform an optimized classification and report a proper description of the results, it is necessary to have a comprehensive critical overview of the application of SVM. The aim of this paper is to provide a review of the usage of SVM in the determination of brain and muscle patterns for HCI, by focusing on electroencephalography (EEG) and electromyography (EMG) techniques. In particular, an overview of the basic principles of SVM theory is outlined, together with a description of several relevant literature implementations. Furthermore, details concerning reviewed papers are listed in tables, and statistics of SVM use in the literature are presented. Suitability of SVM for HCI is discussed and critical comparisons with other classifiers are reported.

The impact of spatial externalities : Skills, education and plant productivity

This paper analyses the role of a broad range of spatial externalities in explaining average labour productivity of Swedish manufacturing plants. The main findings show positive effects from general urbanization economies and labour market matching, as well as a negative effect from within-industry diversity. These results confirm previous research despite methodological differences,which implies wider generalizability. Additionally, the empirical findings support Marshall–Arrow–Romer (MAR) and Porter externalities, i.e. positive effects from specialization and competition. No evidence is found of Jacobs externalities, neither when measured as between-industry diversity nor as within-industry diversity. Finally, plant-specific characteristics play a key role in explaining plant-level productivity.

A Microdata Analysis Approach to Transport Infrastructure Maintenance

Maintenance of transport infrastructure assets is widely advocated as the key in minimizing current and future costs of the transportation network. While effective maintenance decisions are often a result of engineering skills and practical knowledge, efficient decisions must also account for the net result over an asset's life-cycle. One essential aspect in the long term perspective of transport infrastructure maintenance is to proactively estimate maintenance needs. In dealing with immediate maintenance actions, support tools that can prioritize potential maintenance candidates are important to obtain an efficient maintenance strategy. This dissertation consists of five individual research papers presenting a microdata analysis approach to transport infrastructure maintenance. Microdata analysis is a multidisciplinary field in which large quantities of data is collected, analyzed, and interpreted to improve decision-making. Increased access to transport infrastructure data enables a deeper understanding of causal effects and a possibility to make predictions of future outcomes. The microdata analysis approach covers the complete process from data collection to actual decisions and is therefore well suited for the task of improving efficiency in transport infrastructure maintenance. Statistical modeling was the selected analysis method in this dissertation and provided solutions to the different problems presented in each of the five papers. In Paper I, a time-to-event model was used to estimate remaining road pavement lifetimes in Sweden. In Paper II, an extension of the model in Paper I assessed the impact of latent variables on road lifetimes; displaying the sections in a road network that are weaker due to e.g. subsoil conditions or undetected heavy traffic. The study in Paper III incorporated a probabilistic parametric distribution as a representation of road lifetimes into an equation for the marginal cost of road wear. Differentiated road wear marginal costs for heavy and light vehicles are an important information basis for decisions regarding vehicle miles traveled (VMT) taxation policies. In Paper IV, a distribution based clustering method was used to distinguish between road segments that are deteriorating and road segments that have a stationary road condition. Within railway networks, temporary speed restrictions are often imposed because of maintenance and must be addressed in order to keep punctuality. The study in Paper V evaluated the empirical effect on running time of speed restrictions on a Norwegian railway line using a generalized linear mixed model.

Multi-Scale Governance of Sustainable Natural Resource Use—Challenges and Opportunities for Monitoring and Institutional Development at the National and Global Level

In a globalized economy, the use of natural resources is determined by the demand of modern production and consumption systems, and by infrastructure development. Sustainable natural resource use will require good governance and management based on sound scientific information, data and indicators. There is a rich literature on natural resource management, yet the national and global scale and macro-economic policy making has been underrepresented. We provide an overview of the scholarly literature on multi-scale governance of natural resources, focusing on the information required by relevant actors from local to global scale. Global natural resource use is largely determined by national, regional, and local policies. We observe that in recent decades, the development of public policies of natural resource use has been fostered by an “inspiration cycle” between the research, policy and statistics community, fostering social learning. Effective natural resource policies require adequate monitoring tools, in particular indicators for the use of materials, energy, land, and water as well as waste and GHG emissions of national economies. We summarize the state-of-the-art of the application of accounting methods and data sources for national material flow accounts and indicators, including territorial and product-life-cycle based approaches. We show how accounts on natural resource use can inform the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and argue that information on natural resource use, and in particular footprint indicators, will be indispensable for a consistent implementation of the SDGs. We recognize that improving the knowledge base for global natural resource use will require further institutional development including at national and international levels, for which we outline options.

2015 Annual Safety and Security Report

The information contained in this Annual Safety and Security Report is provided to new and prospective students and employees, as well as their families, and all current members of the campus community. It contains Public Safety Services and Programming,Building Threat and Vulnerability Assessment Program,Campus Security authorities, Annual Preparation of Crime Statistics, Disclosure of Crime Statistics, Daily Crime Log, How to Report a Crime, Suspicious Activity or Emergency, Silent Witness Program, Relationship with Local Authorities, Off-Campus Violations & Criminal Activity, Confidential Reporting, Timely Warning Procedures, Emergency Response, Notification and Evacuation Procedures Activation Authority, Available Communications Media, Emergency Notification Tests, Emergency Evacuation Procedures, Shelter-in-Place Procedures,Crime Prevention and Safety Awareness Programs, Emergency Telephones, Access To Facilities, Maintenance of Buildings and Grounds, Alcohol and Other Drugs, Domestic Violence, Dating Violence, Sexual Assault, and Stalking, Sex Offender Registration, Weapons on Campus, Referrals for Disciplinary Action, Crime Information: Definitions and Statistics, Uniform Crime Reporting Definitions, Reporting Areas. Crime Statistics

Impacto del Programa de Alimentación Escolar en el Trabajo Infantil: Una aproximación desde la toma de decisiones familiares

Esta investigación analiza el impacto del Programa de Alimentación Escolar en el trabajo infantil en Colombia a través de varias técnicas de evaluación de impacto que incluyen emparejamiento simple, emparejamiento genético y emparejamiento con reducción de sesgo. En particular, se encuentra que este programa disminuye la probabilidad de que los escolares trabajen alrededor de un 4%. Además, se explora que el trabajo infantil se reduce gracias a que el programa aumenta la seguridad alimentaria, lo que consecuentemente cambia las decisiones de los hogares y anula la carga laboral en los infantes. Son numerosos los avances en primera infancia llevados a cabo por el Estado, sin embargo, estos resultados sirven de base para construir un marco conceptual en el que se deben rescatar y promover las políticas públicas alimentarias en toda la edad escolar.

Distance Education in the Professionalization of People with Disability and Prison Inmates

This paper illustrates the impact of the Universidad Estatal a Distancia  (UNED, by its Spanish acronym) in supporting and professionalizing the vulnerable groups of the Costa Rican society, including prison inmates, persons with physical disability, individuals from remote areas, among others.  This study attempts to answer this type of questions: What kind of support has been provided to these sectors?  What are the challenges faced by distance education universities to succeed?  How does UNED have solved these challenges?  What is the impact of the Universidad Estatal a Distancia on the Costa Rican society for the professionalization of its population?  Documentation and statistics have been used in the study; in addition, two people who graduated from UNED were selected to illustrate the type of cases the University serves.(1) Translator’s note: It refers to the “Costa Rican Distance Education State University”.

Mapping spatial and temporal potassium balances in Brazilian soils of south-west Goias.

Introduction: Brazil, is one of the main agricultural producers in the world ranking 1st in the production of sugarcane, coffee and oranges. It is also 2nd as world producer of soybeans and a leader in the harvested yields of many other crops. The annual consumption of mineral fertilizers exceeds 20 million mt, 30% of which corresponds to potash fertilizers (ANDA, 2006). From this statistic it may be supposed that fertilizer application in Brazil is rather high, compared with many other countries. However, even if it is assumed that only one fourth of this enormous 8.5 million km2 territory is used for agriculture, average levels of fertilizer application per hectare of arable land are not high enough for sustainable production. One of the major constraints is the relatively low natural fertility status of the soils which contain excessive Fe and Al oxides. Agriculture is also often practised on sandy soils so that the heavy rainfall causes large losses of nutrients through leaching. In general, nutrient removal by crops such as sugarcane and tropical fruits is much more than the average nutrient application via fertilization, especially in regions with a long history of agricultural production. In the recently developed areas, especially in the Cerrado (Brazilian savanna) where agriculture has expanded since 1980, soils are even poorer than in the "old" agricultural regions, and high costs of mineral fertilizers have become a significant input factor in determining soybean, maize and cotton planting. The consumption of mineral fertilizers throughout Brazil is very uneven. According to the 1995/96 Agricultural Census, only in eight of the total of 26 Brazilian states, were 50 per cent or more of the farms treated "systematically" with mineral fertilizers; in many states it was less than 25 per cent, and in five states even less than 12 per cent (Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics; Censo Agropecuario1995/96, Instituto Brazileiro de Geografia e Estadistica; IBGE, www.ibge.gov.br). The geographical application distribution pattern of mineral fertilizers may be considered as an important field of research. Understanding geographical disparities in fertilization level requires a complex approach. This includes evaluation of the availability of nutrients in the soil (and related soil properties e.g. CEC and texture), the input of nutrients with fertilizer application, and the removal of nutrients by harvested yields. When all these data are compiled, it is possible to evaluate the balance of particular nutrients for certain areas, and make conclusions as to where agricultural practices should be optimized. This kind of research is somewhat complicated, because it relies on completely different sources of data, usually from incomparable data sources, e.g. soil characteristics attributed to soil type areas, in contrast to yields by administrative regions, or farms. A priority tool in this case is the Geographical Information System (GIS), which enables attribution of data from different fields to the same territorial units, and makes possible integration of these data in an "inputoutput" model, where "input" is the natural availability of a nutrient in the soil plus fertilization, and "output" export of the same nutrient with the removed harvested yield.

Evolução temporal da dengue no município de Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, 1994 a 2003

Este estudo caracteriza-se epidemiológico-descritivo com objetivo de descrever a evolução temporal dos casos de dengue em Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, no período de 1994 a 2003, segundo mês de ocorrência e sexo. Os dados foram obtidos junto às fichas de notificação compulsória fornecidas pela Vigilância Epidemiológica da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do município. Foram obtidos os coeficientes de incidência por 100.000 habitantes, segundo estimativas populacionais do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. O município viveu uma epidemia de dengue no ano de 2001, quando o coeficiente de incidência chegou a 619,65 casos/100.000 habitantes, sendo que dentre os 5.553 casos encontrados no período estudado, 0,07% ocorreram no ano de 1994, 3,68% em 1995, 4,52% em 1996, 2,40% em 1997, 1,82% em 1998, 5,73% em 1999, 3,75% em 2000, 57,37% em 2001, 6,25% em 2002 e, 14,39% em 2003 . Os meses do ano de maior ocorrência da doença foram de janeiro a maio. Em relação à variável sexo, a proporção entre o número de casos foi de aproximadamente 1:1, mostrando pequenas flutuações de casos de dengue entre homens e mulheres, para todo período estudado. Os resultados apontam a necessidade do desenvolvimento de estudos sobre a temática e reforçam o papel das instituições de ensino na questão da dengue no nosso país.

Inbreeding levels in Northeast Brazil: strategies for the prospecting of new genetic disorders

A new autosomal recessive genetic condition, the SPOAN syndrome (an acronym for spastic paraplegia, optic atrophy and neuropathy syndrome), was recently discovered in an isolated region of the State of Rio Grande do Norte in Northeast Brazil, in a population that was identified by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) as belonging to the Brazilian communities with the highest rates of "deficiencies" (Neri, 2003), a term used to describe diseases, malformations, and handicaps in general. This prompted us to conduct a study of consanguinity levels in five of its municipal districts by directly interviewing their inhabitants. Information on 7,639 couples (corresponding to about 40% of the whole population of the studied districts) was obtained. The research disclosed the existence of very high frequencies of consanguineous marriages, which varied from about 9% to 32%, suggesting the presence of a direct association between genetic diseases such as the SPOAN syndrome, genetic drift and inbreeding levels. This fact calls for the introduction of educational programs for the local populations, as well as for further studies aiming to identify and characterize other genetic conditions. Epidemiological strategies developed to collect inbreeding data, with the collaboration of health systems available in the region, might be very successful in the prospecting of genetic disorders.

Aquisição de açúcar e perfil de macronutrientes na cesta de alimentos adquirida pelas famílias brasileiras (2002-2003)

Avaliou-se a influência exercida pela aquisição de calorias de açúcar sobre a participação calórica dos demais macronutrientes da dieta. As estimativas deste estudo são baseadas em dados da Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares realizada no Brasil pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística entre julho de 2002 e junho de 2003. Modelos de regressão linear múltiplos foram utilizados para estudar a influência das calorias de açúcar sobre a participação calórica de cada um dos macronutrientes na aquisição domiciliar de alimentos com o controle do valor calórico total da aquisição de alimentos e variáveis sócio-demográficas. Cada caloria adquirida de açúcar eleva em 0,3 caloria a participação de gorduras na aquisição domiciliar de alimentos e diminui em 0,07 a participação de proteínas. Cada caloria de açúcar procedente de alimentos processados aumenta em 1,6 caloria a participação de gorduras e em 0,4 caloria de ácidos graxos saturados e diminui em 0,8 caloria a participação de outros carboidratos que não o açúcar. Os resultados encontrados trazem novas evidências sobre o papel prejudicial do açúcar à saúde humana.